politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Blindsided. Leavers have given the PM a free rein over the Art
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Labour voting against the referendum shows the party now has taken leave of its senses. Led by two calamities, one in the centre and one in Scotland, Labour has become an irrelevance.
SNP carries the social democratic torch in Scotland today ! Brilliantly led.0 -
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.0
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That's the SNP narrative and they are going to stick to it. Carmichael's real issue is that he was an incompetent leaker of government memos when a more ruthless political operator would have made sure his fingerprints weren't anywhere near it. Which I find a bit charming, but there you go ...malcolmg said:
Still not a 100% convinced, it seems to be taking an awful long time to prove anything against her, other than benefitting from people who were in hard times. On Carmichael , the judge clearly stated it was on a technicality , that he was a total liar and gave him no damages. At this point Thomson is innocent till proven guilty other than of using typical Tory ways to enrich herself, which may indeed deter some voters. Certainly would not like to know either of them mind you.FF43 said:
On the facts, the defendant Alistair Carmichael won his case, although the judges made some pretty harsh comments about him as a witness. I won't go into the detail of the allegations against Michelle Thomson - you can check those online - but they go beyond dissatisfied customers of her firm. Ultimately voters will make up their own minds.malcolmg said:Hmmm, have not seen anything on this police investigation , but can understand people who sell when desperate not being happy etc. and woudl moan about it , but it happens every day on every type of asset.
Carmichael has been proven and convicted of being a liar there are no doubts about it. Facts rather than speculation suit me better.0 -
Uk lawyers providing legal services to overseas companies and individuals are surely contributing to exports?surbiton said:DavidL said:SouthamObserver said:
Says a lawyer who neither imports nor exports. I don't mind paying the tariffs as such. It is the administrative hassle, returns, money stuck in deferment bonds that concern me.DavidL said:
Not really. It will only affect those who import and then re-export. It will become routine. Remember that the US is our biggest single trading partner and we don't even have a trade deal with them. Businesses adapt and cope.SouthamObserver said:
It's not just tariffs. Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union has the potential to considerably increase the cost of doing business - both financially and in terms of time.DavidL said:Big_G_NorthWales said:DavidL said:This is just a bizarre thread header. Does Alastair seriously think that the House of Commons will not debate every aspect of any potential deal with the EU? May has to remember, as the late, great Iain M Banks put it, where the off switch is. If her approach to these negotiations does not meet the approval of the House of Commons she can be removed, just like Chamberlain was.
If you are wondering where these different views and approaches might come from try reading the Evening Standard. I hear they have a new editor.
However, her starting point absolutely has to be a hard Brexit as anything less would show weakness.
Of course the initial deal is just the start and our relationship with the EU will continue to evolve and develop over time for as long as that Institution exists.
DavidL: Half the country is involved with trading, one way or the other. Britain is a trading nation - not a nation of lawyers.0 -
N Korea tests another rocket engine:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/north-korea-tests-newly-developed-rocket-engine-a7637556.html
Getting very hot over there...0 -
The constant demonising of Leavers would be more rational if the remainers hadn't
a) Tried to ignore the result, as it was only "advisory"
b) Started to call for a second referendum
c) Gone to the Supreme Court/other filibusters
Without these, the behaviour of the Leavers would seem a bit demented, but as it stands they have to pull hard against those who would use any loophole to reverse the result. The remainers want to water down the result to as close to the status quo as possible, and cant understand why the leavers take the polar opposite view! As long as the Leavers are a minority in Parliament they have to show resistance
It's why I would be happy to accept any leave deal, even if it is no different to Cameron's renegotiation. Just get us out!!0 -
Fillon is too far back now in my view to make the runoff, the scandals have destroyed his campaign, so the runoff will almost certainly be Le Pen v Macron and Le Pen will go hard on security and immigration to try and win over Fillon voters. Add in Dupont-Aignan and Fillon voters to Le Pen voters based on the latest OpinionWay poll and you get to 51%, so it is a viable route for her to win even though Macron is still the clear favouriteMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
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Yes, of course. But his comments that doing trade with the EU will become "routine" tells me he has very little knowledge of doing trade with an EU country today. Does he know what a manifest is ? Does he know what a deferment bond is ? All these are not relevant today. It will be when we are out. Massive bureaucracy and massive amounts of money will be stuck.David_Evershed said:
Uk lawyers providing legal services to overseas companies and individuals are surely contributing to exports?surbiton said:DavidL said:SouthamObserver said:
Says a lawyer who neither imports nor exports. I don't mind paying the tariffs as such. It is the administrative hassle, returns, money stuck in deferment bonds that concern me.DavidL said:
Not really. It will only affect those who import and then re-export. It will become routine. Remember that the US is our biggest single trading partner and we don't even have a trade deal with them. Businesses adapt and cope.SouthamObserver said:
It's not just tariffs. Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union has the potential to considerably increase the cost of doing business - both financially and in terms of time.DavidL said:Big_G_NorthWales said:DavidL said:This is just a bizarre thread header. Does Alastair seriously think that the House of Commons will not debate every aspect of any potential deal with the EU? May has to remember, as the late, great Iain M Banks put it, where the off switch is. If her approach to these negotiations does not meet the approval of the House of Commons she can be removed, just like Chamberlain was.
If you are wondering where these different views and approaches might come from try reading the Evening Standard. I hear they have a new editor.
However, her starting point absolutely has to be a hard Brexit as anything less would show weakness.
Of course the initial deal is just the start and our relationship with the EU will continue to evolve and develop over time for as long as that Institution exists.
DavidL: Half the country is involved with trading, one way or the other. Britain is a trading nation - not a nation of lawyers.0 -
CPS are taking their time doing much about it, it cannot be that complicated and they have had the police report 4 months at least now. Given timescales it is scandalous that people are kept on the hook for so long, the authorities should handle these matters in a timely fashion and either convict or exeonerate people.FF43 said:
That's the SNP narrative and they are going to stick to it. Carmichael's real issue is that he was an incompetent leaker of government memos when a more ruthless political operator would have made sure his fingerprints weren't anywhere near it. Which I find a bit charming, but there you go ...malcolmg said:
Still not a 100% convinced, it seems to be taking an awful long time to prove anything against her, other than benefitting from people who were in hard times. On Carmichael , the judge clearly stated it was on a technicality , that he was a total liar and gave him no damages. At this point Thomson is innocent till proven guilty other than of using typical Tory ways to enrich herself, which may indeed deter some voters. Certainly would not like to know either of them mind you.FF43 said:
On the facts, the defendant Alistair Carmichael won his case, although the judges made some pretty harsh comments about him as a witness. I won't go into the detail of the allegations against Michelle Thomson - you can check those online - but they go beyond dissatisfied customers of her firm. Ultimately voters will make up their own minds.malcolmg said:Hmmm, have not seen anything on this police investigation , but can understand people who sell when desperate not being happy etc. and woudl moan about it , but it happens every day on every type of asset.
Carmichael has been proven and convicted of being a liar there are no doubts about it. Facts rather than speculation suit me better.0 -
If so vast the bureaucracy and so big the costs it is amazing that we do so much trade outside the EU. All that stuff that British firms working without FTA agreements to places like the USA, how do they do it? How do countries like South Korea manage to thrive?surbiton said:
Yes, of course. But his comments that doing trade with the EU will become "routine" tells me he has very little knowledge of doing trade with an EU country today. Does he know what a manifest is ? Does he know what a deferment bond is ? All these are not relevant today. It will be when we are out. Massive bureaucracy and massive amounts of money will be stuck.0 -
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!FF43 said:
That's the SNP narrative and they are going to stick to it. Carmichael's real issue is that he was an incompetent leaker of government memos when a more ruthless political operator would have made sure his fingerprints weren't anywhere near it. Which I find a bit charming, but there you go ...malcolmg said:
Still not a 100% convinced, it seems to be taking an awful long time to prove anything against her, other than benefitting from people who were in hard times. On Carmichael , the judge clearly stated it was on a technicality , that he was a total liar and gave him no damages. At this point Thomson is innocent till proven guilty other than of using typical Tory ways to enrich herself, which may indeed deter some voters. Certainly would not like to know either of them mind you.FF43 said:
On the facts, the defendant Alistair Carmichael won his case, although the judges made some pretty harsh comments about him as a witness. I won't go into the detail of the allegations against Michelle Thomson - you can check those online - but they go beyond dissatisfied customers of her firm. Ultimately voters will make up their own minds.malcolmg said:Hmmm, have not seen anything on this police investigation , but can understand people who sell when desperate not being happy etc. and woudl moan about it , but it happens every day on every type of asset.
Carmichael has been proven and convicted of being a liar there are no doubts about it. Facts rather than speculation suit me better.0 -
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.peter_from_putney said:Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4.
Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer.
May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory.
Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."0 -
China's on our side, that's all that matters in the end.rottenborough said:N Korea tests another rocket engine:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/north-korea-tests-newly-developed-rocket-engine-a7637556.html
Getting very hot over there...0 -
We will end up with 'Canada' on goods, equivalence on services, a contribution to the accrued pensions for our former employees and paying in to certain specific programmes we agree to.isam said:The constant demonising of Leavers would be more rational if the remainers hadn't
a) Tried to ignore the result, as it was only "advisory"
b) Started to call for a second referendum
c) Gone to the Supreme Court/other filibusters
Without these, the behaviour of the Leavers would seem a bit demented, but as it stands they have to pull hard against those who would use any loophole to reverse the result. The remainers want to water down the result to as close to the status quo as possible, and cant understand why the leavers take the polar opposite view! As long as the Leavers are a minority in Parliament they have to show resistance
It's why I would be happy to accept any leave deal, even if it is no different to Cameron's renegotiation. Just get us out!!
The idea that one nation will veto the deal is fairly amusing. They will be at each other like rats in a sack.
It's already happening. Look at the Poles being threatened with cuts to their handouts if they don't agree to Tusk, the Greeks with eviction if they don't accept austerity, the Hungarians with threats related to immigrant quotas etc.
The UK is the EU's biggest single export market. It isn't just a single country leaving the EU - it's the economic equivalent of 20 of the 27.
All the negotiation is leading to is the way both sides will present sensible Brexit to the majority and the deranged extremes in their respective electorates.
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We don't know that it's not true.SouthamObserver said:Trump lies. We rush over to apologise.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/8433727246302904320 -
He'd say 'Yes' at the moment, as it means he only needs to stick with a job he clearly hates for another couple of months.justin124 said:
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.peter_from_putney said:Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4.
Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer.
May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory.
Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
May won't do it though. Sunday morning chatter.0 -
... but it isn't.Luckyguy1983 said:
We don't know that it's not true.SouthamObserver said:Trump lies. We rush over to apologise.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/8433727246302904320 -
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)0 -
Not just Corbyn, he'd need to bring his MPs with him.justin124 said:
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.peter_from_putney said:Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4.
Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer.
May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory.
Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."0 -
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.calum said:
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
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28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron votersBudG said:
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)0 -
True why would they do that and lose their own seats.Why not wait for Corbyn to go nothing lasts forever.logical_song said:
Not just Corbyn, he'd need to bring his MPs with him.justin124 said:
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.peter_from_putney said:Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4.
Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer.
May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory.
Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."0 -
new axis of evil emerges
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tony-blair-says-george-osbornes-evening-standard-editorship/0 -
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)HYUFD said:
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron votersBudG said:
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)0 -
It doesn't strike me as at all unlikely. GCHQ was built with US money. Clean-hands snooping on a radical political figure threatening to upset the geopololitical consensus is practically what it was created for.logical_song said:
... but it isn't.Luckyguy1983 said:
We don't know that it's not true.SouthamObserver said:Trump lies. We rush over to apologise.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/8433727246302904320 -
I would be happy with that but as you say hardcore Leavers would not and Juncker would not either given his comments today 'As for the Brexit negotiations, the Commission has “everything prepared down to the last detail,” said Juncker, warning that “the U.K. will need to prepare itself to be treated as a third country. There will be no half-membership or cherry picking. In Europe, the choice is to eat what’s on the table or not come to the table at all.'SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-marine-le-pen-wont-win/
That would be the goal but it will be no easy ride for May to get there
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Wishful thinking, Mr. T.SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.0 -
More likely to be trueLuckyguy1983 said:
We don't know that it's not true.SouthamObserver said:Trump lies. We rush over to apologise.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/8433727246302904320 -
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.FF43 said:
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.calum said:
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.0 -
Did the voters of Orkney & Shetland punish the LibDems in the last Holyrood elections, Malc?malcolmg said:
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.FF43 said:
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.calum said:
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.0 -
Didn't Osborne defend Charlotte Hogg ?Alanbrooke said:
It seems he thinks that rules and regulations only apply to the 'little people'.
A mentality which Blair also has.
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If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters undecided and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the lineBudG said:
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)HYUFD said:
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron votersBudG said:
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%0 -
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
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What odds would you put on Le Pen?HYUFD said:
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the lineBudG said:
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)HYUFD said:
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron votersBudG said:
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%0 -
True but he will still be there until 2019 and the Commission will have an input and I can't see Macron and Merkel diverging too far from his line, there will be a lot of hard bargaining going onSeanT said:
Juncker is leaving, and the final negotiations will be determined by Merkel, and Macron et al, not the Commission, whatever it may wish to believe.HYUFD said:
I would be happy with that but as you say hardcore Leavers would not and Juncker would not either given his comments today 'As for the Brexit negotiations, the Commission has “everything prepared down to the last detail,” said Juncker, warning that “the U.K. will need to prepare itself to be treated as a third country. There will be no half-membership or cherry picking. In Europe, the choice is to eat what’s on the table or not come to the table at all.'SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-marine-le-pen-wont-win/
That would be the goal but it will be no easy ride for May to get there0 -
You mean 'minimal economic damage' is only of interest to inner London?another_richard said:
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.0 -
5/1, if another big terror attack 2/1rcs1000 said:
What odds would you put on Le Pen?HYUFD said:
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the lineBudG said:
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)HYUFD said:
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron votersBudG said:
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%0 -
He scraped through , 1 MP, how many votes are they getting nowadays , lucky if 4%, they are circling the drain , their only MP is dubious given his conduct as a government minister and their Scottish leader is useless. They are not going to achieve much from where they are and show no signs of improving or wanting to change. They are happy to keep their MP who has been shown to have feet of clay and their leader who is an unmitigated disaster.rcs1000 said:
Did the voters of Orkney & Shetland punish the LibDems in the last Holyrood elections, Malc?malcolmg said:
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.FF43 said:
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.calum said:
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
I cannot see any chink of light there.0 -
Maybe so and maybe no and maybe she wont have a choice.SeanT said:
The idea May will go for Hardcore Brexit is delusional. She's a pragmatist, and risk-averse.another_richard said:
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
It will be soft Brexit with a few hard crunchy bits, like Greek yogurt scattered with Douro almonds. A Hipster Brexit.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.0 -
On topic - i agree with Mr. Meeks that parliament as been sidelined.
But the outlet for the hardcore leavers is that they can bring down Theresa Mays government.0 -
If the EU were sensible and rational like that, I would agree. But then if they were sensible and rational they probably would have agreed to the sort of reform pre-Brexit referendum and Remain would have won easily.SeanT said:
Of course there will be hard bargaining, and lots of posturing (by both sides) before the big game, but in the end Brexit will come down to money and power - the economic and political impact of Brexit on the nation states, in the Council of Ministers, not the Federalist ambitions of the Commission.
They will want to make sure that Britain's deal is inferior (in their eyes) to membership. But they will also want absolutely minimal disruption to trade, security, etc. A long transition where we still have to cough up cash, in return for tweaks on Free Movement, but frictionless access to the Single Market, satisfies those demands. Many will complain, but the fudge will be done.
Anyway, I must go do some PAID writing. Later.
The evidence e.g. from the BBC program the other week, is the EU top bods see the leaving of UK, populism rising in France, Italy, etc, as a direct result of not enough EU integration not less. They see it as the time not to be pragmatic and give some more powers to individual countries, but to take more away and centralize it, as only that way can the EU project succeed.0 -
Some old PB threads are amusing.
Here's one from May 2007 asking who Gordon Brown's successor as Labour leader will be:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/05/23/is-it-too-early-to-bet-on-browns-successor/
21 possibles are mentioned but EdM wasn't one of them.0 -
The fate of the LibDems and indeed SLab and SCon at Westminster and Holyrood is whether the Unionist voters are able to determine a single viable candidate to oppose the SNP.malcolmg said:
He scraped through , 1 MP, how many votes are they getting nowadays , lucky if 4%, they are circling the drain , their only MP is dubious given his conduct as a government minister and their Scottish leader is useless. They are not going to achieve much from where they are and show no signs of improving or wanting to change. They are happy to keep their MP who has been shown to have feet of clay and their leader who is an unmitigated disaster.rcs1000 said:
Did the voters of Orkney & Shetland punish the LibDems in the last Holyrood elections, Malc?malcolmg said:
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.FF43 said:
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.calum said:
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
I cannot see any chink of light there.
The last Holyrood election appears to suggest these Unionist voters are doing so in more constituencies. I'd presently suggest the Tartan Yellow Peril would be favoured in O&S, Edin W and NE Fife.0 -
One thing which I would hope we have all learnt from the last couple of years is that cocksure predictions of the future are fraught with danger.SeanT said:
I accept there is a risk of Cliff Edge Brexit, and everything is vetoed, and we crash out to WTO terms - I just think it's not that likely.another_richard said:
Maybe so and maybe no and maybe she wont have a choice.SeanT said:
The idea May will go for Hardcore Brexit is delusional. She's a pragmatist, and risk-averse.another_richard said:
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
It will be soft Brexit with a few hard crunchy bits, like Greek yogurt scattered with Douro almonds. A Hipster Brexit.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.
We're all agreed here on Primrose Hill Borders.
Another thing is that Primrose Hill Borders can't always get what it wants.
In fact after two general elections, the AV vote, the EU Ref and the Trump win Primrose Hill Borders rarely gets what it wants.
0 -
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.HYUFD said:
5/1, if another big terror attack 2/1rcs1000 said:
What odds would you put on Le Pen?HYUFD said:
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the lineBudG said:
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)HYUFD said:
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron votersBudG said:
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%0 -
Utterly hilarious how brexiteer hipsters keep telling anyone who doesn't want a harder than hard brexit red in tooth and claw that they need to get down wiv the kool boys and girls of Stoke/Basildon/Whitehaven/Hartlepool.SeanT said:
I accept there is a risk of Cliff Edge Brexit, and everything is vetoed, and we crash out to WTO terms - I just think it's not that likely.another_richard said:
Maybe so and maybe no and maybe she wont have a choice.SeanT said:
The idea May will go for Hardcore Brexit is delusional. She's a pragmatist, and risk-averse.another_richard said:
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.SeanT said:A Meeks thread I heartily agree with!
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
It will be soft Brexit with a few hard crunchy bits, like Greek yogurt scattered with Douro almonds. A Hipster Brexit.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.
We're all agreed here on Primrose Hill Borders.
Like they know any more about what they're really thinking and/or needing than the rest of us.0 -
To what end? There is no other government. Thanks to Corbyn we are a one party state.rkrkrk said:On topic - i agree with Mr. Meeks that parliament as been sidelined.
But the outlet for the hardcore leavers is that they can bring down Theresa Mays government.0 -
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/8434647626211491840 -
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.BudG said:This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
0 -
The country being discriminated in that picture is England.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.0 -
The map is correct except they failed to show the future seat of English government at Oakham Castle in the Grand Duchy of Rutland.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
Shocking error ....
0 -
That's what I thought... We don't get our flag on there and its our fault!another_richard said:
The country being discriminated in that picture is England.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.
Geeks Toy API has that flag for the EPL, quite annoying0 -
I would agree with the Macron head to head.JackW said:
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.BudG said:This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
Against Fillon, I think it would be much closer. 75% of French voters don't think he should be running in this election. If he gets through to the second round, he has to somehow persuade at least a third of that 75% to vote for him as President, in a contest they think he should not even be standing in.
My guess is that there will be a lot of that 75% who will find it just as distasteful to voite for Fillon as it would be to vote form Le Pen and will probably end up voting for neither. So Le Pen probably has a chance against Fillon on a low second round turnout.
Having said that, it is going to take something pretty extraordinary for Fillon to get above his current ceiling of around 20% and qualify for the second round.
0 -
Puir, wee oppressed souls.another_richard said:
The country being discriminated in that picture is England.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.
Start a party! Or a petition! Or at least a whiny meme on twitter.0 -
I didn't see the report and can't comment authoritatively but as there is no plan for English regional devolution, might it be probable that the map is the idiot guide to present national government location rather than anything mischievous?isam said:
That's what I thought... We don't get our flag on there and its our fault!another_richard said:
The country being discriminated in that picture is England.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.
Geeks Toy API has that flag for the EPL, quite annoying0 -
Most likely correct. Hovever I'm minded to think that voters would hold their nose and vote for Fillon rather than Le Pen in the increasingly unlikely event that he secures a second round place.BudG said:
I would agree with the Macron head to head.JackW said:
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.BudG said:This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
Against Fillon, I think it would be much closer. 75% of French voters don't think he should be running in this election. If he gets through to the second round, he has to somehow persuade at least a third of that 75% to vote for him as President, in a contest they think he should not even be standing in.
My guess is that there will be a lot of that 75% who will find it just as distasteful to voite for Fillon as it would be to vote form Le Pen and will probably end up voting for neither. So Le Pen probably has a chance against Fillon on a low second round turnout.
Having said that, it is going to take something pretty extraordinary for Fillon to get above his current ceiling of around 20% and qualify for the second round.0 -
Bettors need to remember that a 40% poll does not mean a 40% chance of winning. Wilders is a good lesson to learn from.JackW said:
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.BudG said:This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
If the Bataclan and Nice attacks didn't boost her polling, why should this Orly airport one?0 -
Surely Oakham wouldn't want to house a government; there's only a limited space for all the horseshoes to hang?JackW said:
The map is correct except they failed to show the future seat of English government at Oakham Castle in the Grand Duchy of Rutland.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
Shocking error ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakham_Castle#The_Horseshoes0 -
It must give you great pain that England and Wales had the courage to vote for independence but that Scotland lost its bottle on its big day.Theuniondivvie said:
Puir, wee oppressed souls.another_richard said:
The country being discriminated in that picture is England.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.
Start a party! Or a petition! Or at least a whiny meme on twitter.
0 -
I thought Oakham Castle a fine venue - the perfect size for slimmed down government, little seating to limit legislative procrastination and overseen by equine historicism of peers of the realm ..JosiasJessop said:
Surely Oakham wouldn't want to house a government; there's only a limited space for all the horseshoes to hang?JackW said:
The map is correct except they failed to show the future seat of English government at Oakham Castle in the Grand Duchy of Rutland.Theuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
Shocking error ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakham_Castle#The_Horseshoes
0 -
Sound advice .... and all the notable coming from one of PB's most redoubtable Yellow Perilistfoxinsoxuk said:
Bettors need to remember that a 40% poll does not mean a 40% chance of winning. Wilders is a good lesson to learn from.JackW said:
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.BudG said:This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
If the Bataclan and Nice attacks didn't boost her polling, why should this Orly airport one?0 -
The idiots don't even try to hide it nowadaysTheuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/8434647626211491840 -
Dad's army !malcolmg said:
The idiots don't even try to hide it nowadaysTheuniondivvie said:Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/8434647626211491840 -
Marine Le Pen is polling far higher than her father ever didJackW said:
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.BudG said:This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.0 -
Is anyone offering either (a) an over-under on Le Pen's second round score, or (b) a spread-bet?
I think that could be a very interesting market to play.0
