Labour voting against the referendum shows the party now has taken leave of its senses. Led by two calamities, one in the centre and one in Scotland, Labour has become an irrelevance.
SNP carries the social democratic torch in Scotland today ! Brilliantly led.
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Hmmm, have not seen anything on this police investigation , but can understand people who sell when desperate not being happy etc. and woudl moan about it , but it happens every day on every type of asset. Carmichael has been proven and convicted of being a liar there are no doubts about it. Facts rather than speculation suit me better.
On the facts, the defendant Alistair Carmichael won his case, although the judges made some pretty harsh comments about him as a witness. I won't go into the detail of the allegations against Michelle Thomson - you can check those online - but they go beyond dissatisfied customers of her firm. Ultimately voters will make up their own minds.
Still not a 100% convinced, it seems to be taking an awful long time to prove anything against her, other than benefitting from people who were in hard times. On Carmichael , the judge clearly stated it was on a technicality , that he was a total liar and gave him no damages. At this point Thomson is innocent till proven guilty other than of using typical Tory ways to enrich herself, which may indeed deter some voters. Certainly would not like to know either of them mind you.
That's the SNP narrative and they are going to stick to it. Carmichael's real issue is that he was an incompetent leaker of government memos when a more ruthless political operator would have made sure his fingerprints weren't anywhere near it. Which I find a bit charming, but there you go ...
This is just a bizarre thread header. Does Alastair seriously think that the House of Commons will not debate every aspect of any potential deal with the EU? May has to remember, as the late, great Iain M Banks put it, where the off switch is. If her approach to these negotiations does not meet the approval of the House of Commons she can be removed, just like Chamberlain was.
If you are wondering where these different views and approaches might come from try reading the Evening Standard. I hear they have a new editor.
However, her starting point absolutely has to be a hard Brexit as anything less would show weakness.
Of course the initial deal is just the start and our relationship with the EU will continue to evolve and develop over time for as long as that Institution exists.
It's not just tariffs. Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union has the potential to considerably increase the cost of doing business - both financially and in terms of time.
Not really. It will only affect those who import and then re-export. It will become routine. Remember that the US is our biggest single trading partner and we don't even have a trade deal with them. Businesses adapt and cope.
Says a lawyer who neither imports nor exports. I don't mind paying the tariffs as such. It is the administrative hassle, returns, money stuck in deferment bonds that concern me.
DavidL: Half the country is involved with trading, one way or the other. Britain is a trading nation - not a nation of lawyers.
Uk lawyers providing legal services to overseas companies and individuals are surely contributing to exports?
The constant demonising of Leavers would be more rational if the remainers hadn't
a) Tried to ignore the result, as it was only "advisory" b) Started to call for a second referendum c) Gone to the Supreme Court/other filibusters
Without these, the behaviour of the Leavers would seem a bit demented, but as it stands they have to pull hard against those who would use any loophole to reverse the result. The remainers want to water down the result to as close to the status quo as possible, and cant understand why the leavers take the polar opposite view! As long as the Leavers are a minority in Parliament they have to show resistance
It's why I would be happy to accept any leave deal, even if it is no different to Cameron's renegotiation. Just get us out!!
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon is too far back now in my view to make the runoff, the scandals have destroyed his campaign, so the runoff will almost certainly be Le Pen v Macron and Le Pen will go hard on security and immigration to try and win over Fillon voters. Add in Dupont-Aignan and Fillon voters to Le Pen voters based on the latest OpinionWay poll and you get to 51%, so it is a viable route for her to win even though Macron is still the clear favourite
This is just a bizarre thread header. Does Alastair seriously think that the House of Commons will not debate every aspect of any potential deal with the EU? May has to remember, as the late, great Iain M Banks put it, where the off switch is. If her approach to these negotiations does not meet the approval of the House of Commons she can be removed, just like Chamberlain was.
If you are wondering where these different views and approaches might come from try reading the Evening Standard. I hear they have a new editor.
However, her starting point absolutely has to be a hard Brexit as anything less would show weakness.
Of course the initial deal is just the start and our relationship with the EU will continue to evolve and develop over time for as long as that Institution exists.
It's not just tariffs. Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union has the potential to considerably increase the cost of doing business - both financially and in terms of time.
Not really. It will only affect those who import and then re-export. It will become routine. Remember that the US is our biggest single trading partner and we don't even have a trade deal with them. Businesses adapt and cope.
Says a lawyer who neither imports nor exports. I don't mind paying the tariffs as such. It is the administrative hassle, returns, money stuck in deferment bonds that concern me.
DavidL: Half the country is involved with trading, one way or the other. Britain is a trading nation - not a nation of lawyers.
Uk lawyers providing legal services to overseas companies and individuals are surely contributing to exports?
Yes, of course. But his comments that doing trade with the EU will become "routine" tells me he has very little knowledge of doing trade with an EU country today. Does he know what a manifest is ? Does he know what a deferment bond is ? All these are not relevant today. It will be when we are out. Massive bureaucracy and massive amounts of money will be stuck.
Hmmm, have not seen anything on this police investigation , but can understand people who sell when desperate not being happy etc. and woudl moan about it , but it happens every day on every type of asset. Carmichael has been proven and convicted of being a liar there are no doubts about it. Facts rather than speculation suit me better.
On the facts, the defendant Alistair Carmichael won his case, although the judges made some pretty harsh comments about him as a witness. I won't go into the detail of the allegations against Michelle Thomson - you can check those online - but they go beyond dissatisfied customers of her firm. Ultimately voters will make up their own minds.
Still not a 100% convinced, it seems to be taking an awful long time to prove anything against her, other than benefitting from people who were in hard times. On Carmichael , the judge clearly stated it was on a technicality , that he was a total liar and gave him no damages. At this point Thomson is innocent till proven guilty other than of using typical Tory ways to enrich herself, which may indeed deter some voters. Certainly would not like to know either of them mind you.
That's the SNP narrative and they are going to stick to it. Carmichael's real issue is that he was an incompetent leaker of government memos when a more ruthless political operator would have made sure his fingerprints weren't anywhere near it. Which I find a bit charming, but there you go ...
CPS are taking their time doing much about it, it cannot be that complicated and they have had the police report 4 months at least now. Given timescales it is scandalous that people are kept on the hook for so long, the authorities should handle these matters in a timely fashion and either convict or exeonerate people.
Yes, of course. But his comments that doing trade with the EU will become "routine" tells me he has very little knowledge of doing trade with an EU country today. Does he know what a manifest is ? Does he know what a deferment bond is ? All these are not relevant today. It will be when we are out. Massive bureaucracy and massive amounts of money will be stuck.
If so vast the bureaucracy and so big the costs it is amazing that we do so much trade outside the EU. All that stuff that British firms working without FTA agreements to places like the USA, how do they do it? How do countries like South Korea manage to thrive?
Hmmm, have not seen anything on this police investigation , but can understand people who sell when desperate not being happy etc. and woudl moan about it , but it happens every day on every type of asset. Carmichael has been proven and convicted of being a liar there are no doubts about it. Facts rather than speculation suit me better.
On the facts, the defendant Alistair Carmichael won his case, although the judges made some pretty harsh comments about him as a witness. I won't go into the detail of the allegations against Michelle Thomson - you can check those online - but they go beyond dissatisfied customers of her firm. Ultimately voters will make up their own minds.
Still not a 100% convinced, it seems to be taking an awful long time to prove anything against her, other than benefitting from people who were in hard times. On Carmichael , the judge clearly stated it was on a technicality , that he was a total liar and gave him no damages. At this point Thomson is innocent till proven guilty other than of using typical Tory ways to enrich herself, which may indeed deter some voters. Certainly would not like to know either of them mind you.
That's the SNP narrative and they are going to stick to it. Carmichael's real issue is that he was an incompetent leaker of government memos when a more ruthless political operator would have made sure his fingerprints weren't anywhere near it. Which I find a bit charming, but there you go ...
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.
The constant demonising of Leavers would be more rational if the remainers hadn't
a) Tried to ignore the result, as it was only "advisory" b) Started to call for a second referendum c) Gone to the Supreme Court/other filibusters
Without these, the behaviour of the Leavers would seem a bit demented, but as it stands they have to pull hard against those who would use any loophole to reverse the result. The remainers want to water down the result to as close to the status quo as possible, and cant understand why the leavers take the polar opposite view! As long as the Leavers are a minority in Parliament they have to show resistance
It's why I would be happy to accept any leave deal, even if it is no different to Cameron's renegotiation. Just get us out!!
We will end up with 'Canada' on goods, equivalence on services, a contribution to the accrued pensions for our former employees and paying in to certain specific programmes we agree to.
The idea that one nation will veto the deal is fairly amusing. They will be at each other like rats in a sack.
It's already happening. Look at the Poles being threatened with cuts to their handouts if they don't agree to Tusk, the Greeks with eviction if they don't accept austerity, the Hungarians with threats related to immigrant quotas etc.
The UK is the EU's biggest single export market. It isn't just a single country leaving the EU - it's the economic equivalent of 20 of the 27.
All the negotiation is leading to is the way both sides will present sensible Brexit to the majority and the deranged extremes in their respective electorates.
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.
He'd say 'Yes' at the moment, as it means he only needs to stick with a job he clearly hates for another couple of months.
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.
Not just Corbyn, he'd need to bring his MPs with him.
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron voters
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Without Corbyn's agreement, it is already too late to hold a general election on May 4th.
Not just Corbyn, he'd need to bring his MPs with him.
True why would they do that and lose their own seats.Why not wait for Corbyn to go nothing lasts forever.
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron voters
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)
It doesn't strike me as at all unlikely. GCHQ was built with US money. Clean-hands snooping on a radical political figure threatening to upset the geopololitical consensus is practically what it was created for.
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
I would be happy with that but as you say hardcore Leavers would not and Juncker would not either given his comments today 'As for the Brexit negotiations, the Commission has “everything prepared down to the last detail,” said Juncker, warning that “the U.K. will need to prepare itself to be treated as a third country. There will be no half-membership or cherry picking. In Europe, the choice is to eat what’s on the table or not come to the table at all.' http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-marine-le-pen-wont-win/ That would be the goal but it will be no easy ride for May to get there
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.
Did the voters of Orkney & Shetland punish the LibDems in the last Holyrood elections, Malc?
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron voters
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters undecided and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the line
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron voters
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the line
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
I would be happy with that but as you say hardcore Leavers would not and Juncker would not either given his comments today 'As for the Brexit negotiations, the Commission has “everything prepared down to the last detail,” said Juncker, warning that “the U.K. will need to prepare itself to be treated as a third country. There will be no half-membership or cherry picking. In Europe, the choice is to eat what’s on the table or not come to the table at all.' http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-marine-le-pen-wont-win/ That would be the goal but it will be no easy ride for May to get there
Juncker is leaving, and the final negotiations will be determined by Merkel, and Macron et al, not the Commission, whatever it may wish to believe.
True but he will still be there until 2019 and the Commission will have an input and I can't see Macron and Merkel diverging too far from his line, there will be a lot of hard bargaining going on
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
You mean 'minimal economic damage' is only of interest to inner London?
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron voters
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the line
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.
Did the voters of Orkney & Shetland punish the LibDems in the last Holyrood elections, Malc?
He scraped through , 1 MP, how many votes are they getting nowadays , lucky if 4%, they are circling the drain , their only MP is dubious given his conduct as a government minister and their Scottish leader is useless. They are not going to achieve much from where they are and show no signs of improving or wanting to change. They are happy to keep their MP who has been shown to have feet of clay and their leader who is an unmitigated disaster. I cannot see any chink of light there.
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
The idea May will go for Hardcore Brexit is delusional. She's a pragmatist, and risk-averse.
It will be soft Brexit with a few hard crunchy bits, like Greek yogurt scattered with Douro almonds. A Hipster Brexit.
Maybe so and maybe no and maybe she wont have a choice.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.
Of course there will be hard bargaining, and lots of posturing (by both sides) before the big game, but in the end Brexit will come down to money and power - the economic and political impact of Brexit on the nation states, in the Council of Ministers, not the Federalist ambitions of the Commission.
They will want to make sure that Britain's deal is inferior (in their eyes) to membership. But they will also want absolutely minimal disruption to trade, security, etc. A long transition where we still have to cough up cash, in return for tweaks on Free Movement, but frictionless access to the Single Market, satisfies those demands. Many will complain, but the fudge will be done.
Anyway, I must go do some PAID writing. Later.
If the EU were sensible and rational like that, I would agree. But then if they were sensible and rational they probably would have agreed to the sort of reform pre-Brexit referendum and Remain would have won easily.
The evidence e.g. from the BBC program the other week, is the EU top bods see the leaving of UK, populism rising in France, Italy, etc, as a direct result of not enough EU integration not less. They see it as the time not to be pragmatic and give some more powers to individual countries, but to take more away and centralize it, as only that way can the EU project succeed.
FWIW Carmichael was a senior public prosecutor before politics, chief pitchfork holder re Woolas and LibDems legal spokesman !!
He won his case. Those are the facts Malcolm was talking about.
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
He illustrates perfectly why the Lib Dems are moribund in Scotland , only STV saves them from being extinct in Holyrood as well. Lying toerags , serial at that and they will give up any principle to hang on.
Did the voters of Orkney & Shetland punish the LibDems in the last Holyrood elections, Malc?
He scraped through , 1 MP, how many votes are they getting nowadays , lucky if 4%, they are circling the drain , their only MP is dubious given his conduct as a government minister and their Scottish leader is useless. They are not going to achieve much from where they are and show no signs of improving or wanting to change. They are happy to keep their MP who has been shown to have feet of clay and their leader who is an unmitigated disaster. I cannot see any chink of light there.
The fate of the LibDems and indeed SLab and SCon at Westminster and Holyrood is whether the Unionist voters are able to determine a single viable candidate to oppose the SNP.
The last Holyrood election appears to suggest these Unionist voters are doing so in more constituencies. I'd presently suggest the Tartan Yellow Peril would be favoured in O&S, Edin W and NE Fife.
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
The idea May will go for Hardcore Brexit is delusional. She's a pragmatist, and risk-averse.
It will be soft Brexit with a few hard crunchy bits, like Greek yogurt scattered with Douro almonds. A Hipster Brexit.
Maybe so and maybe no and maybe she wont have a choice.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.
I accept there is a risk of Cliff Edge Brexit, and everything is vetoed, and we crash out to WTO terms - I just think it's not that likely.
We're all agreed here on Primrose Hill Borders.
One thing which I would hope we have all learnt from the last couple of years is that cocksure predictions of the future are fraught with danger.
Another thing is that Primrose Hill Borders can't always get what it wants.
In fact after two general elections, the AV vote, the EU Ref and the Trump win Primrose Hill Borders rarely gets what it wants.
Mr. HYUFD, interesting. Le Pen's main advantage over Macron appears to be certainty of voters to turn out. However, Fillon has the same advantage, so if it's real, that would probably just mean she loses to Fillon rather than Macron.
Fillon's certainty to vote figure has taken quite a tumble recently. About a week ago it was 77%, in the latest ifop poll it has fallen to just 60%. Certainty to vote was one big advantage he had over Macron, but the advantage is not so great now.
28% of Fillon voters are undecided for a Le Pen v Macron runoff and 43% of Melenchon voters, compared to just 21% of Hamon voters and 4% of Le Pen and 1% of Macron voters
Problem is 28% of the 18% of the vote share that he has, according to that poll would translate to just 5% extra for Le Pen if they all fell her way (unlikely, as the split of those who have made up their minds is 41-31 in favour of Macron)
If she won all the undecided Fillon voters and added them to the 31% of his voters she already has she gets to 59% of Fillon voters switch to her in the runoff so she gets to 37.5% when those voters are added to her first round score. If she wins the 43% of Melenchon voters and adds them to the 12% of his voters she already has she adds another 5.7% to her total to get to 42.7%, add in the 3.5% from the rightwing anti EU Dupont Aignan and the 0.5% from the rightwing anti EU Asseleneau and she gets to 46.7%, not far off the 51% she needs. She just needs to squeeze a bit more of the 41% of Fillon voters currently saying they will vote for Macron to get over the line
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%
What odds would you put on Le Pen?
5/1, if another big terror attack 2/1
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
I'm a liberal Leaver, ultra-soft Brexit is what I WANT
There are reports today that the government has a Plan B, a TEN YEAR tariff-free transition, with continuing, tho smaller contributions, and minor tweaks on Free Movement. This seems quite likely to me. It'll satisfy the EU as they'll see us as having a bad deal. It'll satisfy most MPs as being the best of a bad job (in their eyes).
Hardcore Leavers and Continuity Remoaners will hate it. The rest of us will shrug, and think, at least we're Out, with minimal economic damage, and we can slowly pivot further away over time.
Bingo Brexit.
That seems to be a rather Inner London idea.
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
The idea May will go for Hardcore Brexit is delusional. She's a pragmatist, and risk-averse.
It will be soft Brexit with a few hard crunchy bits, like Greek yogurt scattered with Douro almonds. A Hipster Brexit.
Maybe so and maybe no and maybe she wont have a choice.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.
I accept there is a risk of Cliff Edge Brexit, and everything is vetoed, and we crash out to WTO terms - I just think it's not that likely.
We're all agreed here on Primrose Hill Borders.
Utterly hilarious how brexiteer hipsters keep telling anyone who doesn't want a harder than hard brexit red in tooth and claw that they need to get down wiv the kool boys and girls of Stoke/Basildon/Whitehaven/Hartlepool.
Like they know any more about what they're really thinking and/or needing than the rest of us.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
I would agree with the Macron head to head.
Against Fillon, I think it would be much closer. 75% of French voters don't think he should be running in this election. If he gets through to the second round, he has to somehow persuade at least a third of that 75% to vote for him as President, in a contest they think he should not even be standing in.
My guess is that there will be a lot of that 75% who will find it just as distasteful to voite for Fillon as it would be to vote form Le Pen and will probably end up voting for neither. So Le Pen probably has a chance against Fillon on a low second round turnout.
Having said that, it is going to take something pretty extraordinary for Fillon to get above his current ceiling of around 20% and qualify for the second round.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
The country being discriminated in that picture is England.
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.
That's what I thought... We don't get our flag on there and its our fault!
Geeks Toy API has that flag for the EPL, quite annoying
I didn't see the report and can't comment authoritatively but as there is no plan for English regional devolution, might it be probable that the map is the idiot guide to present national government location rather than anything mischievous?
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
I would agree with the Macron head to head.
Against Fillon, I think it would be much closer. 75% of French voters don't think he should be running in this election. If he gets through to the second round, he has to somehow persuade at least a third of that 75% to vote for him as President, in a contest they think he should not even be standing in.
My guess is that there will be a lot of that 75% who will find it just as distasteful to voite for Fillon as it would be to vote form Le Pen and will probably end up voting for neither. So Le Pen probably has a chance against Fillon on a low second round turnout.
Having said that, it is going to take something pretty extraordinary for Fillon to get above his current ceiling of around 20% and qualify for the second round.
Most likely correct. Hovever I'm minded to think that voters would hold their nose and vote for Fillon rather than Le Pen in the increasingly unlikely event that he secures a second round place.
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
Bettors need to remember that a 40% poll does not mean a 40% chance of winning. Wilders is a good lesson to learn from.
If the Bataclan and Nice attacks didn't boost her polling, why should this Orly airport one?
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
I thought Oakham Castle a fine venue - the perfect size for slimmed down government, little seating to limit legislative procrastination and overseen by equine historicism of peers of the realm ..
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
Bettors need to remember that a 40% poll does not mean a 40% chance of winning. Wilders is a good lesson to learn from.
If the Bataclan and Nice attacks didn't boost her polling, why should this Orly airport one?
Sound advice .... and all the notable coming from one of PB's most redoubtable Yellow Perilist
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
Repeat after me, whenever there might be Jocks, Paddies or Taffs watching, the UK is not England. That just wastes years of 'partnership of equals' bullshit.
This is the problem with laying Le Pen at odds any bigger than she is at the moment. I don't think another big terrorist attack would improve her chances as greatly as some people think, but the market will inevitably over-react and probably bring her odds down to 2/1 or maybe even less. As someone who is primarily a trader on this market, that is not a risk I can afford to take, so if anything I am a backer at current odds rather than a layer... even though her current odds over-estimate her chances of winning imo.
Like her father Marine Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a firm ceiling and a clear driver of votes to her second round opponent.
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
Marine Le Pen is polling far higher than her father ever did
Comments
SNP carries the social democratic torch in Scotland today ! Brilliantly led.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/north-korea-tests-newly-developed-rocket-engine-a7637556.html
Getting very hot over there...
a) Tried to ignore the result, as it was only "advisory"
b) Started to call for a second referendum
c) Gone to the Supreme Court/other filibusters
Without these, the behaviour of the Leavers would seem a bit demented, but as it stands they have to pull hard against those who would use any loophole to reverse the result. The remainers want to water down the result to as close to the status quo as possible, and cant understand why the leavers take the polar opposite view! As long as the Leavers are a minority in Parliament they have to show resistance
It's why I would be happy to accept any leave deal, even if it is no different to Cameron's renegotiation. Just get us out!!
The idea that one nation will veto the deal is fairly amusing. They will be at each other like rats in a sack.
It's already happening. Look at the Poles being threatened with cuts to their handouts if they don't agree to Tusk, the Greeks with eviction if they don't accept austerity, the Hungarians with threats related to immigrant quotas etc.
The UK is the EU's biggest single export market. It isn't just a single country leaving the EU - it's the economic equivalent of 20 of the 27.
All the negotiation is leading to is the way both sides will present sensible Brexit to the majority and the deranged extremes in their respective electorates.
May won't do it though. Sunday morning chatter.
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-03-2017.pdf
(See graph on page 12)
Being a politician is a slippery business. They dissemble, prevaricate, obfuscate, mislead and omit, but they don't usually tell a direct falsehood. Mr Carmichael shows why. If he had lost his case, he would be out on his ears. I would say, them's the rules. You should have known better. But he won. Them's also the rules.
I can't say I approve of lying, obviously, although most of us do from time to time.
new axis of evil emerges
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tony-blair-says-george-osbornes-evening-standard-editorship/
http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-marine-le-pen-wont-win/
That would be the goal but it will be no easy ride for May to get there
It seems he thinks that rules and regulations only apply to the 'little people'.
A mentality which Blair also has.
Bear in mind too this poll was taken before yesterday's terror attack and OpinionWay has Le Pen up to 28% and Fillon on 20%
And, irrespective of the merits or not, it isn't Inner London which won it for Leave or, more importantly, wins general elections for the Conservative party.
I cannot see any chink of light there.
But you're in deep danger of projecting what your wishes are for this week and of being affected by the Inner London echo chamber.
Might I suggest a trip on the District Line eastbound to get some greater perspective.
But the outlet for the hardcore leavers is that they can bring down Theresa Mays government.
The evidence e.g. from the BBC program the other week, is the EU top bods see the leaving of UK, populism rising in France, Italy, etc, as a direct result of not enough EU integration not less. They see it as the time not to be pragmatic and give some more powers to individual countries, but to take more away and centralize it, as only that way can the EU project succeed.
Here's one from May 2007 asking who Gordon Brown's successor as Labour leader will be:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/05/23/is-it-too-early-to-bet-on-browns-successor/
21 possibles are mentioned but EdM wasn't one of them.
The last Holyrood election appears to suggest these Unionist voters are doing so in more constituencies. I'd presently suggest the Tartan Yellow Peril would be favoured in O&S, Edin W and NE Fife.
Another thing is that Primrose Hill Borders can't always get what it wants.
In fact after two general elections, the AV vote, the EU Ref and the Trump win Primrose Hill Borders rarely gets what it wants.
Like they know any more about what they're really thinking and/or needing than the rest of us.
https://twitter.com/KristoferKeane/status/843464762621149184
If she faces Macron I'd see her losing 65:35, Fillon 60:40, give or take a few points.
But that doesn't fit the standard narrative.
Shocking error ....
Geeks Toy API has that flag for the EPL, quite annoying
Against Fillon, I think it would be much closer. 75% of French voters don't think he should be running in this election. If he gets through to the second round, he has to somehow persuade at least a third of that 75% to vote for him as President, in a contest they think he should not even be standing in.
My guess is that there will be a lot of that 75% who will find it just as distasteful to voite for Fillon as it would be to vote form Le Pen and will probably end up voting for neither. So Le Pen probably has a chance against Fillon on a low second round turnout.
Having said that, it is going to take something pretty extraordinary for Fillon to get above his current ceiling of around 20% and qualify for the second round.
Start a party! Or a petition! Or at least a whiny meme on twitter.
If the Bataclan and Nice attacks didn't boost her polling, why should this Orly airport one?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakham_Castle#The_Horseshoes
I think that could be a very interesting market to play.