at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations. Those are the ones of the EU27 and of the EU itself. The only one that does not have that right is Westminster. Tis a strange sort of control that we have taken back."
This is correct. While the final Brexit is done by QMV, though perhaps needing unanimity on trade issues, Any EU27 parliament can debate the negotiations and direct their negotiating team as they see fit. Except Westminster.
Sturgeon has played a blinder, whatever the status of #indyref2, May cannot ignore the Scottish interest.
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we will be offered is va te faire foutre, and so off we go to WTO land. In a few years time things might settle back down, but thats like saying that after a big asteroid crashes into the earth things might settle back down.
The cost of WTO tariffs is broadly similar to what we pay the EU, so no £350m a week for the NHS. But it's the ny for gearbox fitting then a tariff to the UK to install them in a Mini. Yes in the long term a supply chain can be set up. But in practice it will be the same impact as privatisation had on the train building industry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly why I voted Remain.
Leaving the EU means that jobs that would have been created in the UK will now be created elsewhere and investments that would have been made here will now happen in other countries. Missed opportunities and lower growth will be the name of the game. But the wealthy nationalists that led the Leave campaign will be fine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am telling you what I think will happen. It's an opinion. I apologise for not prefacing all my sentences with "I think that ...". For future reference, assume those words are there.
Thread after thread by Mr Meeks, I've no idea what he or the editors are hoping to achieve but its not a good look.
You clearly have not understood what he's written. Or maybe you haven't actually read it.
"We Conservatives do not need to read things. We always know exactly what the situation is. And we Conservatives are always right. Everybody else is always wrong."
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we will be offered is va te faire foutre, and so off we go to WTO land. In a few years time things might settle back down, but thats like saying that after a big asteroid crashes into the earth things might settle back down.
The cost of WTO tariffs is broadly similar to what we pay the EU, so no £350m a week for the NHS. But it's the ny for gearbox fitting then a tariff to the UK to install them in a Mini. Yes in the long term a supply chain can be set up. But in practice it will be the same impact as privatisation had on the train building industry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly why I voted Remain.
Leaving the EU means that jobs that would have been created in the UK will now be created elsewhere and investments that would have been made here will now happen in other countries. Missed opportunities and lower growth will be the name of the game. But the wealthy nationalists that led the Leave campaign will be fine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am telling you what I think will happen. It's an opinion. I apologise for not prefacing all my sentences with "I think that ...". For future reference, assume those words are there.
You're providing an invaluable service in telling us what you think will happen. It's greatly appreciated.
"I agree. But that has nothing to do with Alastair's article."
It has everything to with Mr Meek's article. If we had a referendum on whether to go to war with Adolf, we might well have voted Yes at the time. Then Parliament would have been hamstrung about when and if to surrender. It wold have meant continuing the war to its end - which actually happened.
if Parliament, in its wisdom decides, that a referendum is needed (and they did), they can't then row back when they don't like the result.
We didn't have a referendum in 1939, so parliament could have voted to sue for peace after the fall of Norway. In an alternative universe, that happened an infinite number of times.
What Mr Meeks and you would prefer(correct me if I'm wrong) is that if the going gets tough, or is portrayed as getting too tough, Parliament could reverse or rerun the referendum.
That would surely happen if it's left to Parliament. The EU would be fools not to take advantage. What would you do if you were the EU negotiators?
I can't get that through my Parliament is a great negotiating tool.
What I want is a government answerable to Parliament as rights that I currently enjoy are negotiated away.
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
Look at it the other way Rochdale. I argued against electing Corbyn although I didn't register as a supporter to get a vote. I voted to remain in the belief a divorce would be messy and prolonged if not actually utterly impossible. So on those issues I've been proven right so far. But on many others I get proven wrong. The key thing is that unlike certain posters, you've admitted you were wrong, which means you still have a chance to put them right. It may be too late for Europe, although I don't think EFTA will ever be entirely off the table and we may get that at some point - certainly there will be mileage in arguing for it. But unless there is an election imminent it's not too late to get rid of Corbyn.
Admitting mistakes also shows that you have shrewdness and strength of character, which is one reason why I have always found your posts interesting and useful. Old Irish proverb: 'Knowing one's faults is the first step on the path to greatness.'
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am telling you what I think will happen. It's an opinion. I apologise for not prefacing all my sentences with "I think that ...". For future reference, assume those words are there.
fair comment SO and sorry for being picky
however I would point out that we are now approaching a year post the vote, and in that year growth, investment and employment have all continued at levels better than the EU .
At what point do remainers actually come to terms with the reality the economy hasnt collapsed ? It would serve your arguments better if you would stop the hyperbole and maybe focus onissues where there will be a real problem.
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am telling you what I think will happen. It's an opinion. I apologise for not prefacing all my sentences with "I think that ...". For future reference, assume those words are there.
fair comment SO and sorry for being picky
however I would point out that we are now approaching a year post the vote, and in that year growth, investment and employment have all continue at levels better than the EU .
At what point do remainers actually come to terms with the reality the economy hasnt collapsed ? It would serve your arguments better if you would stop the hyperbole and maybe focus on issues where there will be a real problem.
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Normally I'd think Bollox to such an idea but we live in strange times. The small majority is awkward for May undoubtedly. A GE? Who knows?
Like I said, Adam Boulton is undoubtedly very well connected with lots of contacts in high places. Also, elsewhere in his piece, he refers to the exceptionally high level of spend currently taking place by Conservative Party HQ, which could also prove to be a useful pointer as regards a planned early GE. Normally under such circumstances, I'd be rushing off to the bookies to lay my money down, but Corals' best odds of 2/1 against a 2017 GE don't appear to be overly generous.
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Normally I'd think Bollox to such an idea but we live in strange times. The small majority is awkward for May undoubtedly. A GE? Who knows?
Like I said, Adam Boulton is undoubtedly very well connected with lots of contacts in high places. Also, elsewhere in his piece, he refers to the exceptionally high level of spend currently taking place by Conservative Party HQ, which could also prove to be a useful pointer as regards a planned early GE. Normally under such circumstances, I'd be rushing off to the bookies to lay my money down, but Corals' best odds of 2/1 against a 2017 GE don't appear to be overly generous.
It would also solve the problem of potential by elections in a dozen or so constituencies the could have denied her her majority.....
Because you can imagine what cable will be worth whilst this collapse is going on
Is that a typing error? It doesn't seem to make sense.
cable is the US / GBP exchange rate
Ah, that's OK then. I thought RP was making an obscure reference to Vince, and I wondered why his value would plummet under these circumstances (well, more than it did after the Browne report).
name comes from the fact that it was the reason why transatlantic cables were first laid. Pesky bankers investing in infrastructure for their own benefit
Meanwhile, in important news, Bangladesh are sixty runs away from a first away test win against proper opposition (admittedly a proper opposition missing its two best batsman) with eight wickets left and Tamim Iqbal going great guns.
And in India, Mr Chetshwar Pujara is demonstrating to the Aussies what proper test batting looks like as India take the lead after lunch on the fourth day with Pujara closing in on a double century and Wriddihim Saha closing in on a ton - with Jadeja still to come.
So it's not just England who get walloped by these teams!
Edit - and just as I say that, Tamim throws it away.
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am telling you what I think will happen. It's an opinion. I apologise for not prefacing all my sentences with "I think that ...". For future reference, assume those words are there.
fair comment SO and sorry for being picky
however I would point out that we are now approaching a year post the vote, and in that year growth, investment and employment have all continued at levels better than the EU .
At what point do remainers actually come to terms with the reality the economy hasnt collapsed ? It would serve your arguments better if you would stop the hyperbole and maybe focus onissues where there will be a real problem.
Cheers.
I was one of the few Remoaners on here (Mr Topping was another, I think) who did not predict a post-Leave vote calamity. I have always said it was about missed opportunities and lower growth, rather than disaster. I stick by that. I just don't think the benefits of leaving outweigh the negatives. I lost and I am getting over it. But we all come onto PB to discuss politics and let off steam, so that's what I do ;-)
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
Normally I'd think Bollox to such an idea but we live in strange times. The small majority is awkward for May undoubtedly. A GE? Who knows?
Like I said, Adam Boulton is undoubtedly very well connected with lots of contacts in high places. Also, elsewhere in his piece, he refers to the exceptionally high level of spend currently taking place by Conservative Party HQ, which could also prove to be a useful pointer as regards a planned early GE. Normally under such circumstances, I'd be rushing off to the bookies to lay my money down, but Corals' best odds of 2/1 against a 2017 GE don't appear to be overly generous.
I doubt it, Hasn't May just been lecturing Sturgeon on the need for national stability in this time of change ?
I think it is probably a fair point that hardcore leavers are destined to be disappointed as the reality of leaving will require some fudged solutions and compromises, and the free hand of the government then will be seen as problematic. Of course, they Will cause trouble elsewhere in retaliation.
Personally I always felt Parliament should be involved, though how much without restricting the government too much too soon, is a tricky one.
"at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations,"
They are only the vegetables.
That is a mistake.
Britons have always liked the smack of authoritan leaders, but in Europe there is a very different sort of politics that is more consensual and consultative. Take the Netherlands for example, where there may be no agreed government for months. In these circumstances the Dutch parliament will have control over the Dutch position. The position varies considerably by country, but generally legislatures there have more authority than the executives, and act as a check on them.
at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations. Those are the ones of the EU27 and of the EU itself. The only one that does not have that right is Westminster. Tis a strange sort of control that we have taken back."
This is correct. While the final Brexit is done by QMV, though perhaps needing unanimity on trade issues, Any EU27 parliament can debate the negotiations and direct their negotiating team as they see fit. Except Westminster.
Sturgeon has played a blinder, whatever the status of #indyref2, May cannot ignore the Scottish interest.
Sturgeon has undermined her credibility - the trick was to continually to say that you might demand one but not actually to do so. Now she's got a bit for "grievance" but nothing of practical value.
And May won't ignore the Scottish interest. She is PM of the UK and will weigh the interest alongside the interests of, say, Herefordshire, and determine the right way forward for the UK a a whole. (I can understand why ScotNats might not think this works - I wasn't happy with the Mercosur negotiations, for instance, which were in the EU's interest but were negative for the UK - but they had a referendum on leaving and were denied)
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
Personally I don't think recent cable movements are to do with Brexit (although of course they are reported as such).
It's the shift towards a tightening cycle in the US with Yellen finally acting. You can make a case that the difference is exacerbated by Brexit (ie UK rates will be lower for longer because of Brexit) but it's a second order effect
Because you can imagine what cable will be worth whilst this collapse is going on
Is that a typing error? It doesn't seem to make sense.
cable is the US / GBP exchange rate
Ah, that's OK then. I thought RP was making an obscure reference to Vince, and I wondered why his value would plummet under these circumstances (well, more than it did after the Browne report).
name comes from the fact that it was the reason why transatlantic cables were first laid. Pesky bankers investing in infrastructure for their own benefit
And finally coming up with a use for the White Elephant Great Eastern (which cost them a mere £25,000 to purchase despite having cost around £1.1 million to build).
Meanwhile, in important news, Bangladesh are sixty runs away from a first away test win against proper opposition (admittedly a proper opposition missing its two best batsman) with eight wickets left and Tamim Iqbal going great guns.
And in India, Mr Chetshwar Pujara is demonstrating to the Aussies what proper test batting looks like as India take the lead after lunch on the fourth day with Pujara closing in on a double century and Wriddihim Saha closing in on a ton - with Jadeja still to come.
So it's not just England who get walloped by these teams!
Edit - and just as I say that, Tamim throws it away.
Still think Bangladesh will do it. And Ireland are coming off second best to Afghanistan. Do they Morgan back?
But unless there is an election imminent it's not too late to get rid of Corbyn'
If only that was true. 1. A challenge to Corbyn would see the challenger demolished and Corbyn once again gifted a landslide 2. So keeping him/similar off the ballot is key. Defeating the McDonnell amendment to cut the MPs nomination threshold to 5% is keyour- with most CLPs run by old guard members the delegates sent to conference won't be headbangers and I expect the motion to fail 3. Which further entrenches the "anyone not Corbyn is a Tory" mentality of the cultists. He will go on and on and on. An election defeat would be blamed on Tony Blair as Copeland was 4. The only way to get rid of him is to have him resign. Which he won't
In any other country a new party would have been formed. But this is Britain under FPTP. And the leader of La Resistance is Tony sodding Blair...
"I agree. But that has nothing to do with Alastair's article."
It has everything to with Mr Meek's article. If we had a referendum on whether to go to war with Adolf, we might well have voted Yes at the time. Then Parliament would have been hamstrung about when and if to surrender. It wold have meant continuing the war to its end - which actually happened.
if Parliament, in its wisdom decides, that a referendum is needed (and they did), they can't then row back when they don't like the result.
We didn't have a referendum in 1939, so parliament could have voted to sue for peace after the fall of Norway. In an alternative universe, that happened an infinite number of times.
What Mr Meeks and you would prefer(correct me if I'm wrong) is that if the going gets tough, or is portrayed as getting too tough, Parliament could reverse or rerun the referendum.
That would surely happen if it's left to Parliament. The EU would be fools not to take advantage. What would you do if you were the EU negotiators?
I can't get that through my Parliament is a great negotiating tool.
What I want is a government answerable to Parliament as rights that I currently enjoy are negotiated away.
What I want is for you stop describing (rather tediously) Leavers as "swivel-eyed" and "frothers".
Language which you'd quickly pull me up on if I used it the other way.
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
Have a spine, man.
The UK is far, far more than its membership of the European Union. We already do more than half our trade with the rest of the world. In future, it will be even more.
We have multiple internationals looking to set up HQs and expand their businesses here. We are the world's leading soft power, the world's fourth military power, we speak the global language, we have fantastic global links across the world and the Commonwealth, and we are an advanced and affluent economy that is forecast to still be in the world's Top 10 economies, even in 2050.
I think we will do even better outside the EU than by remaining within it - that's why I voted Leave. Yes, the next 2-5 years might not be a cakewalk - and the EU won't make it easy for us - but in the long-term our future is global, and very bright.
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
"If May announces her intention to go to the country to confirm her Brexit strategy at the same time as she triggers article 50 at the end of this month, she could just manage to coincide the general election with the local elections on May 4. Then or later, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is not much of an obstacle. The easiest way to overrule it would be a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Conservative MPs want an early election because they think they would do well and seats would not be cut down by new boundaries. Jeremy Corbyn is on record as saying: “If there is a vote to dissolve parliament then obviously we will vote with it.” Even if he backtracks, the majority of Labour MPs still see painful election chemotherapy as the quickest and surest way to purge their party of the Corbyn cancer. May is in a similar position to Gordon Brown 10 years ago. He too got to No 10 without winning a general election. Brown famously missed his chance in 2007 because he feared the opinion polls were turning against a clear victory. Some Tories working closely with May say she resembles Brown in other ways: paranoid, bullying, over-reliant on unaccountable advisers but ultimately indecisive and cautious. This is the moment for her to prove them wrong and run ahead of the storm. Otherwise things will only get harder."
The difference is brown had an easier way to seize his chance, and he mistakes, in my view, the difficulty of getting past the FTPA (that, for personal party reasons, they want to 'get past ' it is problematic). It envisages a situation where the labour MPs, after months of quiet, en masses choose this moment to launch a devastating attack, one which would mean he either resigns and they run the election with an interim leader, which seems unlikely, or the party fights a campaign with most of its MPs openly against their leader. They are too loyal to the party brand to do that.
"at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations,"
They are only the vegetables.
That is a mistake.
Britons have always liked the smack of authoritan leaders, but in Europe there is a very different sort of politics that is more consensual and consultative.
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am
fair comment SO and
Cheers.
I was one of the few Remoaners on here (Mr Topping was another, I think) who did not predict a post-Leave vote calamity. I have always said it was about missed opportunities and lower growth, rather than disaster. I stick by that. I just don't think the benefits of leaving outweigh the negatives. I lost and I am getting over it. But we all come onto PB to discuss politics and let off steam, so that's what I do ;-)
Add me to the list of Remainers who never predicted economic apocalypse. Markets always overreact in the short term then drift back to the fundamentals. It takes time for those fundamentals to change in either direction.
In some ways my view on Brexit is similar to my view on the NHS and other public services, the financial problems are dwarfed by the demographics and the issues of recruitment and retention.
at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations. Those are the ones of the EU27 and of the EU itself. The only one that does not have that right is Westminster. Tis a strange sort of control that we have taken back."
This is correct. While the final Brexit is done by QMV, though perhaps needing unanimity on trade issues, Any EU27 parliament can debate the negotiations and direct their negotiating team as they see fit. Except Westminster.
Sturgeon has played a blinder, whatever the status of #indyref2, May cannot ignore the Scottish interest.
Sturgeon has undermined her credibility - the trick was to continually to say that you might demand one but not actually to do so. Now she's got a bit for "grievance" but nothing of practical value.
And May won't ignore the Scottish interest. She is PM of the UK and will weigh the interest alongside the interests of, say, Herefordshire, and determine the right way forward for the UK a a whole. (I can understand why ScotNats might not think this works - I wasn't happy with the Mercosur negotiations, for instance, which were in the EU's interest but were negative for the UK - but they had a referendum on leaving and were denied)
If it means she weighs the Scottish interest more carefully than others, given the continued agitation for an indyref, then sturgeon has achieved something. I would be wary of judging now if the call was a good idea or sturgeon undermined herself - the nats play a very long game, it will take time to see how this impacts things.
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am
fair comment SO and
Cheers.
I was one of the few Remoaners on here (Mr Topping was another, I think) who did not predict a post-Leave vote calamity. I have always said it was about missed opportunities and lower growth, rather than disaster. I stick by that. I just don't think the benefits of leaving outweigh the negatives. I lost and I am getting over it. But we all come onto PB to discuss politics and let off steam, so that's what I do ;-)
Add me to the list of Remainers who never predicted economic apocalypse. Markets always overreact in the short term then drift back to the fundamentals. It takes time for those fundamentals to change in either direction.
In some ways my view on Brexit is similar to my view on the NHS and other public services, the financial problems are dwarfed by the demographics and the issues of recruitment and retention.
The post Brexit UK economy will be more like getting AIDS than being killed instantly in a motorway pile up.
Here's the ultra well informed Adam Boulton writing in today's Sunday Times forecasting that a General Election could be be called for as early as 4 May .... hey folks, that's in just six and a half weeks' time:
*snip*
It's a view. Against that, what if May were to lose her slender majority? Even after Article 50 is served, you would have Farron jumping up and down saying we could repeal Article 50 - and that would be his price for joining any coalition. Buggering up Brexit would be a real risk of an early election - and for which May would never, ever be forgiven. It would be the sole thing history would have engraved on her tombstone
And then there's Scotland. North of the border, the general election would be turned into the SNP getting a mandate on a new Referendum - whether Westminster wants one or not. They would have the Support of the People regardless. And frankly, that would then be difficult for May to argue against, much more so than her current "maybe, later".
There might be a political advantage for the Tories in exploiting a Corbyn-led Labour Party. But going for that now suggests a worrying degree of doubt that they couldn't see off say a Starmer-led Labour. That is the sort of doubt that can destabilise a general election campaign.
I think May's instinct is to get the job done. She has the votes in Parliament to do the day-to-day running of the country whilst Brexit talks happen. New Parliamentary boundaries can be implemented, in accordance with the Manifesto. Maybe an early resolution by both sides that EU nationals can stay where they were on the day Article 50 was triggered would take some of the steam out of the remainers' urge to keep slogging on. And when the deal is done, the details known, Scotland can have its Referendum on an informed basis. And the Tories can benefit from all but a handful of UKIP hardliners accepting that we have a settled, revised relationship with rumpEU.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily. Thank you Alastair for cheering me up!
Meanwhile, in important news, Bangladesh are sixty runs away from a first away test win against proper opposition (admittedly a proper opposition missing its two best batsman) with eight wickets left and Tamim Iqbal going great guns.
And in India, Mr Chetshwar Pujara is demonstrating to the Aussies what proper test batting looks like as India take the lead after lunch on the fourth day with Pujara closing in on a double century and Wriddihim Saha closing in on a ton - with Jadeja still to come.
So it's not just England who get walloped by these teams!
Edit - and just as I say that, Tamim throws it away.
Still think Bangladesh will do it. And Ireland are coming off second best to Afghanistan. Do they Morgan back?
And they lose the other set batsman too. Their two best and most experienced batsmen are however now at the crease. Can they keep their heads? Just 47 to go for a famous win.
Ireland are welcome to Morgan as long as Root is not made England one-day captain.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
Hardline Leavers will use UKIP as an outline for their frustrations if and when they do not get everything they want, much as hardline Remainers are now using the LDs and SNP to try and block Brexit or dilute it as much as possible
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
he's now more likely Bundeskanzler than Merkel
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
The pictures an coverage of the Leader of the Free world meeting Donald Trump last week will have done her a power of good. She is going to have a good election outcome.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
he's now more likely Bundeskanzler than Merkel
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
The AfD might be a fringe party were it not for her behaviour in office.
I suspect she'd rather lose than fight for their votes.
shes been ahead in the polls for quite some time, the sudden change due to Schulz is now leaving her horribly exposed and suddenly she needs the voters she has tried to alienate
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
She has verbally committed herself too fully to taking a hard stance to roll back from it, and we've seen how she is your average pm with a slender majority in that after so rebellious noises from the backbenches she u turned and had her people throw Hammond under the bus.
Ultra leavers will be disappointed by something, but despite voting remain most Tory MPs seem content with the current approach, and may will not want to upset them. Ok she has a free hand now, but with the mechanics and timeframe of a new election difficult, and particularly risky once article 50 is triggered as it eats into negotiation time, she diesbt want those MPs causing trouble on other matters,
An excruciating performance by Meeks. I felt like Dustin Hoffman in the dentist's chair after a couple of sentences.
Yesterday Tim Farron was awarded the "Remoaner of the Year" award. Is this article Mr Meeks's attempt to get that decision overturned ?
It's amazing the number of people that comment on Alastair Meeks pieces without (1) reading them; or (2) understanding them.
Actually I have read, and re-read every word. I even think I understand what he is trying to say. I doubt also there are many interviews with Mr Farron which I have not listened to. However, the article, like Mr Farron's ad hominen attack on Theresa May scheduled for this morning is founded upon a premis which I do not recognise. The fact is the British people did know what they were doing when they entered the polling booths last June. I have yet to hear a convincing argument that any LEAVE voters did not know what they were voting for. It is only ever REMAIN voters that say they did not understand.
Mr Farron has always bent the truth. In 1997 he was sacked by the leader of Lancashire CC Lib Dems for refusing to stand during the loyal toast at a civic function. Today he is claiming patriotism. Journalists - ask him about that civic function in 1997 !
1997 is very nearly 20 years ago. He was 26 or 27 at the time. Admittedly that’s a bit old for somewhat juvenile gestures, but I could see myself doing that around that time of my life, and if Mr VfC wants to doubt my loyalty to my country he can come outside and say it.
A different Libdem.
Tim Farron's original webpage from 2001 has a bar chart on it that was accurate. What happened?
If the UK does, by blind luck, end up with EEA/EFTA won't UKIP just re-energise their tracksuit clad legions up and down the East coast and we'd end up with another referendum to leave that?
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am
fair comment SO and
Cheers.
I was one of the few Remoaners on here (Mr Topping was another, I think) who did not predict a post-Leave vote calamity. I have always said it was about missed opportunities and lower growth, rather than disaster. I stick by that. I just don't think the benefits of leaving outweigh the negatives. I lost and I am getting over it. But we all come onto PB to discuss politics and let off steam, so that's what I do ;-)
Add me to the list of Remainers who never predicted economic apocalypse. Markets always overreact in the short term then drift back to the fundamentals. It takes time for those fundamentals to change in either direction.
Lol.
I wonder how many Remainers will claim to have never predicted economic fallout after we Leave when we do and that doesn't happen either?
Meanwhile, in important news, Bangladesh are sixty runs away from a first away test win against proper opposition (admittedly a proper opposition missing its two best batsman) with eight wickets left and Tamim Iqbal going great guns.
And in India, Mr Chetshwar Pujara is demonstrating to the Aussies what proper test batting looks like as India take the lead after lunch on the fourth day with Pujara closing in on a double century and Wriddihim Saha closing in on a ton - with Jadeja still to come.
So it's not just England who get walloped by these teams!
Edit - and just as I say that, Tamim throws it away.
Still think Bangladesh will do it. And Ireland are coming off second best to Afghanistan. Do they Morgan back?
And they lose the other set batsman too. Their two best and most experienced batsmen are however now at the crease. Can they keep their heads? Just 47 to go for a famous win.
Ireland are welcome to Morgan as long as Root is not made England one-day captain.
Wriddhiman Saha’s got his century; Pujara 4 away from his double.Bangladesh 39 away!
Meanwhile, in important news, Bangladesh are sixty runs away from a first away test win against proper opposition (admittedly a proper opposition missing its two best batsman) with eight wickets left and Tamim Iqbal going great guns.
And in India, Mr Chetshwar Pujara is demonstrating to the Aussies what proper test batting looks like as India take the lead after lunch on the fourth day with Pujara closing in on a double century and Wriddihim Saha closing in on a ton - with Jadeja still to come.
So it's not just England who get walloped by these teams!
Edit - and just as I say that, Tamim throws it away.
Still think Bangladesh will do it. And Ireland are coming off second best to Afghanistan. Do they Morgan back?
And they lose the other set batsman too. Their two best and most experienced batsmen are however now at the crease. Can they keep their heads? Just 47 to go for a famous win.
Ireland are welcome to Morgan as long as Root is not made England one-day captain.
Wriddhiman Saha’s got his century; Pujara 4 away from his double.Bangladesh 39 away!
Morgan has passed his sell by date.. Captaining on borrowed time.
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we witry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even Edinburgh.
Excellent post. I think the predictions of doom preded insularity makes us look less relevant to the rest of the world.
Yep - that's exactly ine, so that's OK.
you have absolutely no way of knowing what will happen to investments
two weeks ago Remainers were wittering on about the death of UK car production
last week Toyota announced it was investing quarter a billion quid
one could equally argue that investments made in the EU to take advantage of favourable tax regimes in Ireland and Luxemburg will be forced to come back to the UK if they want to keep trading here
None of us know the future shock.
We all weigh evidence and make decisions on what we see shock.
correct, so why you keep confidently telling us what you cant know is bizarre.
I was explaining why I voted Remain. I am
fair comment SO and
Cheers.
I was one of the few
Add me to the list of Remainers who never predicted economic apocalypse. Markets always overreact in the short term then drift back to the fundamentals. It takes time for those fundamentals to change in either direction.
Lol.
I wonder how many Remainers will claim to have never predicted economic fallout after we Leave when we do and that doesn't happen either?
I do not deny that some predicted apocalypse, just that I was not one of them. I was not alone, there was a lot of criticism of the failure of the Reman campaign to make a positive case for Europe in the run up to the vote. Project Fear was way overdone, as the Scots can see too.
An election in May 2017 would see the Tories winning a majority of Thatcheresque proportions. No risk at all. And election in May 2020 takes the risk that there has been no hard Brexit shock because if anything has gone wrong - the deal involved compromise and brought Dacre's wrath to bear, or the deal involved no compromise and has brought about economic shock which has a lot of leave voters saying "I didn't vote for that".
For me a snap election now buys her not just a thumping majority but insurance in a few years.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
I'm afraid by assuming that people would listen to reason rather than dissembling, bile, hatred and downright lies. The Remain campaign was pretty clueless too in many parts.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
he's now more likely Bundeskanzler than Merkel
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
The pictures an coverage of the Leader of the Free world meeting Donald Trump last week will have done her a power of good. She is going to have a good election outcome.
I'm not so sure
she has managed to get herself in a position where the Left can form a government by itself, and she can only govern with SPD support. That's not a strong hand. She will need a big shift in the opinion polls to be Chancellor again and just maybe the "time for a change" theme is starting to work against her. So far Schulz big attraction has been he's a fresh face.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
We didn't appreciate the brilliance of Chris A's arguments.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linke which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AfD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
I'm afraid by assuming that people would listen to reason rather than dissembling, bile, hatred and downright lies. The Remain campaign was pretty clueless too in many parts.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
So long after the referendum and people insist on believing all people voting for one side or another shared the exact same reasons.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
I'm afraid by assuming that people would listen to reason rather than dissembling, bile, hatred and downright lies. The Remain campaign was pretty clueless too in many parts.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linle which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AdD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
There hardball but then there's very hardball, backing a downright punitive response to Brexit to send a message, even if it causes someblowback. Germanys stance will be a critical factor in swaying others.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
I'm afraid by assuming that people would listen to reason rather than dissembling, bile, hatred and downright lies. The Remain campaign was pretty clueless too in many parts.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
your post simply reinforces that you cant see things from others' perspectives, that their priorities might differ from yours. Your inability to see anything but your own viewpoint is ultimately what cost you the vote.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
he's now more likely Bundeskanzler than Merkel
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
The pictures an coverage of the Leader of the Free world meeting Donald Trump last week will have done her a power of good. She is going to have a good election outcome.
I'm not so sure
she has managed to get herself in a position where the Left can form a government by itself, and she can only govern with SPD support. That's not a strong hand. She will need a big shift in the opinion polls to be Chancellor again and just maybe the "time for a change" theme is starting to work against her. So far Schulz big attraction has been he's a fresh face.
The PR nature of German democracy means that there will be a coalition, but it also means one that is even more pro EU than Merkel.
Negotiations are going nowhere, and never could. Rock hard Brexit is the destination and we shouldn’t waste too much time planning for anything else.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linke which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AfD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
Most polls give the FDP over 5%, and the centre right parties 50%+, but as Merkel won't deal with AFD, another grand coalition is likely.
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
I'm afraid by assuming that people would listen to reason rather than dissembling, bile, hatred and downright lies. The Remain campaign was pretty clueless too in many parts.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
your post simply reinforces that you cant see things from other perspectives, that their priorities might differ from yours. Your inability to see anything but your own viewpoint is ultimately what cost you the vote.
Not very clever
It's easier to believe 52% of people are horrible racists apparently. (Characterising it as mostly or solely due to hatred of foreigners cannot mean anything but anyone echo voted such a way is a racist) Presumably that's higher as well, since immigration control, while not a concern of mine, is backed by more than 52% I believe.
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
I voted Remain but a Leave vote was always going to lead to tighter immigration controls given the posters the Leave campaign ran and the working class and lower middle class voters who voted Leave precisely for that.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linke which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AfD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
Most polls give the FDP over 5%, and the centre right parties 50%+, but as Merkel won't deal with AFD, another grand coalition is likely.
this poll is saying FDP is a marginal 5%
last time Merkel screwed up her majority by not asking her voters to lend the FDP some votes to get them over the hurdle. It forced her in to a coalition with the SPD.
Mr Farron has always bent the truth. In 1997 he was sacked by the leader of Lancashire CC Lib Dems for refusing to stand during the loyal toast at a civic function. Today he is claiming patriotism. Journalists - ask him about that civic function in 1997 !
Patriotism and the loyal toast are not the same thing.
*excepting those still living in the 18th century.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linke which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AfD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
Most polls give the FDP over 5%, and the centre right parties 50%+, but as Merkel won't deal with AFD, another grand coalition is likely.
I would agree, in 2005 the CDU was just ahead of the SPD but the SPD could have formed a Grand Coalition with Die Links and the Greens but instead they formed a Grand Coalition with the CDU with Merkel as Chancellor
Have to admit I'd never thought until now of the Remainer May strategy to be one of bluff and double bluff in order to get her own way but such is the intellect of your average Leaver, who would make Worzel Gummidge look like an intellect giant, it's quite possible that she's run rings round them to ensure that the country isn't damaged unnecessarily.
if remainers are so stonkingly clever, how come they lost ?
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
I'm afraid by assuming that people would listen to reason rather than dissembling, bile, hatred and downright lies. The Remain campaign was pretty clueless too in many parts.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
20-30% of non-white immigrants voted leave, which screws your theory a bit.
What really astonishes me is how little you and your like did about it. You contributed how many £100s to the Remain campaign? None. You campaigned on the streets or the phone banks for how many hours? None. For you, the real fightback started on 24/6/16 because the idea of actually exerting yourself to achieve your desired result, at the time it might have made a difference, was just too challenging. Who is the thicko here?
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linle which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AdD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
There hardball but then there's very hardball, backing a downright punitive response to Brexit to send a message, even if it causes someblowback. Germanys stance will be a critical factor in swaying others.
What 'downright punitive response'? Schulz has met May at No10 and as far as I can see his line is identical to Merkel's
Mr Farron has always bent the truth. In 1997 he was sacked by the leader of Lancashire CC Lib Dems for refusing to stand during the loyal toast at a civic function. Today he is claiming patriotism. Journalists - ask him about that civic function in 1997 !
Patriotism and the loyal toast are not the same thing.
*excepting those still living in the 18th century.
Oh dear! This week's article presumes that Labour and the Lib Dems would behave constructively in any debates over Brexit choices. The reality is that like Kinnock over Maastricht, they will do whatever embarrasses the government and sabotages the negotiations, even if they fundamentally agree with the government's destination.
A Remainer Parliament cannot be trusted with executing the Leave vote. Theresa May has taken on the mantle and must be allowed to do the job.
Marr's interview with Ruth Davidson is shameful and irritating. He will not let her talk without continual interruptions by him throughout. He is as bad with this interview as I have seen him.
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
I voted Remain but a Leave vote was always going to lead to tighter immigration controls given the posters the Leave campaign ran and the working class and lower middle class voters who voted Leave precisely for that.
Agree with that. If there aren’t tighter immigration controls, particularly on blue-colour jobs, there’s going to be trouble, or even more disaffection.
Meanwhile Bangladesh have 33 to get of 27 overs after tea. Which in Sri Lanka is rather good.,And India are 90 ahead of the Aussies.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
he's now more likely Bundeskanzler than Merkel
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
The pictures an coverage of the Leader of the Free world meeting Donald Trump last week will have done her a power of good. She is going to have a good election outcome.
I'm not so sure
she has managed to get herself in a position where the Left can form a government by itself, and she can only govern with SPD support. That's not a strong hand. She will need a big shift in the opinion polls to be Chancellor again and just maybe the "time for a change" theme is starting to work against her. So far Schulz big attraction has been he's a fresh face.
The PR nature of German democracy means that there will be a coalition, but it also means one that is even more pro EU than Merkel.
Negotiations are going nowhere, and never could. Rock hard Brexit is the destination and we shouldn’t waste too much time planning for anything else.
The maximum May will likely be able to offer the EU is a job offer requirement for EU migrants to the UK and some limited budget contributions continuing to the EU, If they refuse to do any sort of trade deal even with that form of offer then most British voters will likely say 'sod EU then' including I would venture most Scots
#brexit #marr would Gina miller insisted parliament voted on NOT to trigger article 50 , and NOT to Brexit etc if country had voted remain ?
I'm no fan of Gina Miller but that's a silly tweet. No change would have been needed and no vote required. It is because the courts found that legislation would change as a result of withdrawal that we needed this vote. No other reason.
An excruciating performance by Meeks. I felt like Dustin Hoffman in the dentist's chair after a couple of sentences.
Yesterday Tim Farron was awarded the "Remoaner of the Year" award. Is this article Mr Meeks's attempt to get that decision overturned ?
It's amazing the number of people that comment on Alastair Meeks pieces without (1) reading them; or (2) understanding them.
SO it is beyond their wit to understand them , Alistair will need to start using pictures. Personally I thought it rather good and May is indeed likely to fall at the hands of her own side. They are making some poor decisions that will haunt them.
Where the pound goes against the US Dollar the other currencies quickly follow. The physical cable sits in the bottom of the Atlantic. Which is where we're going. And with May about to win a majority of 150 to enable her to do it we may as well prepare for the other end of jobswap where Paul Dacre becomes Brexit Secretary after the election but still edits the Mail.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
I voted Remain but a Leave vote was always going to lead to tighter immigration controls given the posters the Leave campaign ran and the working class and lower middle class voters who voted Leave precisely for that.
Agree with that. If there aren’t tighter immigration controls, particularly on blue-colour jobs, there’s going to be trouble, or even more disaffection.
Meanwhile Bangladesh have 33 to get of 27 overs after tea. Which in Sri Lanka is rather good.,And India are 90 ahead of the Aussies.
The debate on Norway that removed Chamberlain happened after the conquest, not as part of a running commentary on it. The Maurice debate of 1918 would come into that category too. Parliament was not told things until they had happened for simple reasons of speed and security. Sometimes not even then (Maurice again).
In practice there will not be any different options on the table other than the final bill, so it was always going to be a take it or leave it rubber stamp (and as an international treaty it is questionable whether that falls under Parliament anyway). The timetable of negotiations and their outcome are in the hands of the EU, and it will be hard to get even an inadequate deal from them as the ardent federalists who are negotiating are still very sore at their rejection and determined to punish Britain pour encouragers les autres. So the suggestion that Parliament could stop a hard Brexit by forcing a return to the negotiating table was always something of a fantasy.
Theresa May has not only the right to ignore Parliament now, she has got to ignore it. There is no way a successful negotiation can be carried out while a much-divided assembly is exposing her strategy at every turn and demanding five different courses of action at once. Indeed, that only raises the odds of failure from very high to stone certain.
And as it is a treaty Parliament has authorised her to negotiate and been granted a vote on, if anything it strengthens the doctrine of Parliamentary sovereignty rather than weakens it.
There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations. Those are the ones of the EU27 and of the EU itself. The only one that does not have that right is Westminster. Tis a strange sort of control that we have taken back.
Take the much discussed rights of EU citizens here, vs UK citizens in the EU. The EU does not have the authority to require an EU country to treat one non EU citizen differently to another. Just as our government can currently set different visa requirements on Somalians vs Canadians, post Brexit Spain has the right to decide whether Brits can stay rather than the EU parliament. The Spanish government also has the right to change its mind over the status of non EU citizens at any time, as in the EU that is a national competence. The EU cannot negotiate over this, tbough 27 EU countries can.
As I have said all along, hard Brexit is nailed on and soft Brexit was always a mirage. Even on such a single issue the negotiations cannot be concluded within the 18 months. The only sensible plan is to batten down the hatches for total hard as nails Brexit, as that is what Brexit means Brexit means.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
Total exaggeration. Even on that poll the CDU on 33% is ahead of the SPD on 32% and the SPD would only form a government by 1% with Die Linke which they have historically ruled out as much as the CDU has with the AfD. As I have also consistently said it is complete fantasy to suggest Merkel will play soft with the UK while Schulz will play hard, everything Merkel has said is consistent with the EU line that the UK will only get a trade deal if it makes some concessions on EU immigration and maintains some continued payments to the EU. The only party which would really support Brexit UK is the AfD. In any case all 27 EU nations must agree to a deal and Germany is just one of them
Agree with all of that. Schulz hasn't ruled out a Left/Green deal (so far as I know) but the SPD doesn't really want it at national level: it's a negotiating ploy to counter the "there is no alternative to letting the CDU lead" line.
Personally I expect Merkel to be able to stay, in a result that will have some siimilarities to Netherlands - serious losses for the centre-right, but no convincing alternative. If the SPD makes further progress or the FDP drop under thew 5% threshold, Schulz might make it.
Here's the latest poll and comparisons, so readers can judge for themselves (other polls are similar):
On topic, it's usually best to avoid the glorious subshine and horrible apocalypse scenarios beloved of journalists (newspaper motto: "simply, then exaggerate"). There will be a deal, and it'll be hard to characterise as soft or hard as it will have both elements, a result of the messy multi-headed negotiations that are coming. We will probably uneasily embrace it and life will become uncomfortable for some years.
#brexit #marr would Gina miller insisted parliament voted on NOT to trigger article 50 , and NOT to Brexit etc if country had voted remain ?
I'm no fan of Gina Miller but that's a silly tweet. No change would have been needed and no vote required. It is because the courts found that legislation would change as a result of withdrawal that we needed this vote. No other reason.
I believe Gina Miller's intervention was an enormous success by ensuring TM has obtained a Parliamentary mandate to Brexit and clarified the role of the devolved admininstrations. It just didn't succeeed in her aim of frustrating the process much to her annoyance
An excruciating performance by Meeks. I felt like Dustin Hoffman in the dentist's chair after a couple of sentences.
Yesterday Tim Farron was awarded the "Remoaner of the Year" award. Is this article Mr Meeks's attempt to get that decision overturned ?
It's amazing the number of people that comment on Alastair Meeks pieces without (1) reading them; or (2) understanding them.
SO it is beyond their wit to understand them , Alistair will need to start using pictures. Personally I thought it rather good and May is indeed likely to fall at the hands of her own side. They are making some poor decisions that will haunt them.
I am happy to admit too not understanding this. "Ministers may be brought before select committees, whose members may huff and puff, but ultimately if a deal is struck it will be put before Parliament on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. Given the balance of the House of Commons, that deal will be taken." If that is correct, the only question at issue is the venue for the impotent posturing - in the press or in parliament. It's still impotent posturing.
Merkel has been in power longer than Thatcher, and has split her own voting coalition by tacking to the Left in office.
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
he's now more likely Bundeskanzler than Merkel
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
The pictures an coverage of the Leader of the Free world meeting Donald Trump last week will have done her a power of good. She is going to have a good election outcome.
I'm not so sure
she has managed to get herself in a position where the Left can form a government by itself, and she can only govern with SPD support. That's not a strong hand. She will need a big shift in the opinion polls to be Chancellor again and just maybe the "time for a change" theme is starting to work against her. So far Schulz big attraction has been he's a fresh face.
The PR nature of German democracy means that there will be a coalition, but it also means one that is even more pro EU than Merkel.
Negotiations are going nowhere, and never could. Rock hard Brexit is the destination and we shouldn’t waste too much time planning for anything else.
The maximum May will likely be able to offer the EU is a job offer requirement for EU migrants to the UK and some limited budget contributions continuing to the EU, If they refuse to do any sort of trade deal even with that form of offer then most British voters will likely say 'sod EU then' including I would venture most Scots
Such a job offer residence requirement would not work well for British pensioners in the EU.
As I pointed out earlier, the status of non EU non EEA nationals is a competence of national governments not the European parliament. Unless we remain in the EEA, the EU cannot enforce residency rights for British citizens in the EU. We could have 27 bilateral arrangements, I suppose.
We know it will be hard Brexit and that's not because of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail. The EU are worried about the fracturing of their project and the rise of fascism. Set aside the practical reality that negotiating a deal in 18 months isn't just impossible it's insane, they can't and won't grant a deal. If they did it might encourage others to consider their own position.
So unfortunately for Blighty the deal we will be offered is va te faire foutre, and so off we go to WTO land. In a few years time things might settle back down, but thats like saying that after a big asteroid crashes into the earth things might settle back down.
The cost of WTO tariffs is broadly similar to what we pay the EU, so no £350m a week for the NHS. But it's the shock impact to industry that will do the terminal damage - a British car industry reliant on parts being shipped to and from the EU to be built here won't be viable if BMW have to pay an import tariff to the EU to ship Hams Hall engines to Germany for gearbox fitting then a tariff to the UK to install them in a Mini. Yes in the long term a supply chain can be set up. But in practice it will be the same impact as privatisation had on the train building industry - its swift closure.
And the same with banking, where it's even easier to up sticks and move. This I believe is the Trump card Sturgeon intends to play. All the way through our "negotiations" the EU will tell us not to go. They'll say stay in the market are you mad? So Sturgeon will agree her own deal - an independent Scotland in the EEA via EFTA, they'll give her transitional access, and so she'll have her referendum next autumn whether London likes it or not. And the carrot? No need to move to Frankfurt Mr Barclays, just come to Edinburgh.
Excellent post as ever, why do we not see more of you on here to balance the excesses of the frothers.
If the UK does, by blind luck, end up with EEA/EFTA won't UKIP just re-energise their tracksuit clad legions up and down the East coast and we'd end up with another referendum to leave that?
My favourite post so far. There aren't many of us left who would dare poke a stick at the 'tracksuit clad legions up and down the East coast' and do it it with a straight face.
Comments
at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations. Those are the ones of the EU27 and of the EU itself. The only one that does not have that right is Westminster. Tis a strange sort of control that we have taken back."
This is correct. While the final Brexit is done by QMV, though perhaps needing unanimity on trade issues, Any EU27 parliament can debate the negotiations and direct their negotiating team as they see fit. Except Westminster.
Sturgeon has played a blinder, whatever the status of #indyref2, May cannot ignore the Scottish interest.
I voted for Corbyn but am now resigned to him destroying the Labour Party. I voted to leave the EU thinking the Norway option would be better but am now resigned to the hard Brexit disaster. So it's all my fault. Perhaps my Momentum "comrades" are correct and I really am a Tory...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26823489
What I want is a government answerable to Parliament as rights that I currently enjoy are negotiated away.
Admitting mistakes also shows that you have shrewdness and strength of character, which is one reason why I have always found your posts interesting and useful. Old Irish proverb: 'Knowing one's faults is the first step on the path to greatness.'
however I would point out that we are now approaching a year post the vote, and in that year
growth, investment and employment have all continued at levels better than the EU .
At what point do remainers actually come to terms with the reality the economy hasnt collapsed ? It would serve your arguments better if you would stop the hyperbole and maybe focus onissues where there will be a real problem.
"at 0723 I posted "There are 28 Parliaments in the EU that have the right to discuss and reject any Brexit deal mid negotiations,"
They are only the vegetables.
Normally under such circumstances, I'd be rushing off to the bookies to lay my money down, but Corals' best odds of 2/1 against a 2017 GE don't appear to be overly generous.
And in India, Mr Chetshwar Pujara is demonstrating to the Aussies what proper test batting looks like as India take the lead after lunch on the fourth day with Pujara closing in on a double century and Wriddihim Saha closing in on a ton - with Jadeja still to come.
So it's not just England who get walloped by these teams!
Edit - and just as I say that, Tamim throws it away.
I was one of the few Remoaners on here (Mr Topping was another, I think) who did not predict a post-Leave vote calamity. I have always said it was about missed opportunities and lower growth, rather than disaster. I stick by that. I just don't think the benefits of leaving outweigh the negatives. I lost and I am getting over it. But we all come onto PB to discuss politics and let off steam, so that's what I do ;-)
Personally I always felt Parliament should be involved, though how much without restricting the government too much too soon, is a tricky one.
I reckon Contimentalist is a better fit
Britons have always liked the smack of authoritan leaders, but in Europe there is a very different sort of politics that is more consensual and consultative. Take the Netherlands for example, where there may be no agreed government for months. In these circumstances the Dutch parliament will have control over the Dutch position. The position varies considerably by country, but generally legislatures there have more authority than the executives, and act as a check on them.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06574
And May won't ignore the Scottish interest. She is PM of the UK and will weigh the interest alongside the interests of, say, Herefordshire, and determine the right way forward for the UK a a whole. (I can understand why ScotNats might not think this works - I wasn't happy with the Mercosur negotiations, for instance, which were in the EU's interest but were negative for the UK - but they had a referendum on leaving and were denied)
It's the shift towards a tightening cycle in the US with Yellen finally acting. You can make a case that the difference is exacerbated by Brexit (ie UK rates will be lower for longer because of Brexit) but it's a second order effect
White ElephantGreat Eastern (which cost them a mere £25,000 to purchase despite having cost around £1.1 million to build).1. A challenge to Corbyn would see the challenger demolished and Corbyn once again gifted a landslide
2. So keeping him/similar off the ballot is key. Defeating the McDonnell amendment to cut the MPs nomination threshold to 5% is keyour- with most CLPs run by old guard members the delegates sent to conference won't be headbangers and I expect the motion to fail
3. Which further entrenches the "anyone not Corbyn is a Tory" mentality of the cultists. He will go on and on and on. An election defeat would be blamed on Tony Blair as Copeland was
4. The only way to get rid of him is to have him resign. Which he won't
In any other country a new party would have been formed. But this is Britain under FPTP. And the leader of La Resistance is Tony sodding Blair...
Language which you'd quickly pull me up on if I used it the other way.
The UK is far, far more than its membership of the European Union. We already do more than half our trade with the rest of the world. In future, it will be even more.
We have multiple internationals looking to set up HQs and expand their businesses here. We are the world's leading soft power, the world's fourth military power, we speak the global language, we have fantastic global links across the world and the Commonwealth, and we are an advanced and affluent economy that is forecast to still be in the world's Top 10 economies, even in 2050.
I think we will do even better outside the EU than by remaining within it - that's why I voted Leave. Yes, the next 2-5 years might not be a cakewalk - and the EU won't make it easy for us - but in the long-term our future is global, and very bright.
He's just a chronic whinger. If it wasn't this it would be something else...
Mosley...?
So Schulz will probably win, and he will probably play hardball with the UK.
In some ways my view on Brexit is similar to my view on the NHS and other public services, the financial problems are dwarfed by the demographics and the issues of recruitment and retention.
When he is, he is depressingly tedious.
And then there's Scotland. North of the border, the general election would be turned into the SNP getting a mandate on a new Referendum - whether Westminster wants one or not. They would have the Support of the People regardless. And frankly, that would then be difficult for May to argue against, much more so than her current "maybe, later".
There might be a political advantage for the Tories in exploiting a Corbyn-led Labour Party. But going for that now suggests a worrying degree of doubt that they couldn't see off say a Starmer-led Labour. That is the sort of doubt that can destabilise a general election campaign.
I think May's instinct is to get the job done. She has the votes in Parliament to do the day-to-day running of the country whilst Brexit talks happen. New Parliamentary boundaries can be implemented, in accordance with the Manifesto. Maybe an early resolution by both sides that EU nationals can stay where they were on the day Article 50 was triggered would take some of the steam out of the remainers' urge to keep slogging on. And when the deal is done, the details known, Scotland can have its Referendum on an informed basis. And the Tories can benefit from all but a handful of UKIP hardliners accepting that we have a settled, revised relationship with rumpEU.
But he seems to tend towards a gloomy view of the future on everything that I can remember
she has 33% of the vote atm, wont deal with the AfD and screwed the FDP last time round
the drop in the AfD vote and rise in SPD are probably related, she now needs the AfD to take votes back off Schulz if she is to have grand coalition 2
Ireland are welcome to Morgan as long as Root is not made England one-day captain.
I suspect she'd rather lose than fight for their votes.
I mean by your own admission you only had to bamboozle a bunch of thickos and you couldnt, so what does that say about you ?
Ultra leavers will be disappointed by something, but despite voting remain most Tory MPs seem content with the current approach, and may will not want to upset them. Ok she has a free hand now, but with the mechanics and timeframe of a new election difficult, and particularly risky once article 50 is triggered as it eats into negotiation time, she diesbt want those MPs causing trouble on other matters,
Tim Farron's original webpage from 2001 has a bar chart on it that was accurate. What happened?
http://web.archive.org/web/20011005165714/http://www.cix.co.uk/~timfarron/
Are there any other accurate LibDem bar charts out there? We should be told.
I wonder how many Remainers will claim to have never predicted economic fallout after we Leave when we do and that doesn't happen either?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/jul/02/italy.eu
For me a snap election now buys her not just a thumping majority but insurance in a few years.
But anyone who voted leave can have given the matter so little thought, or rather got the importance of the relative issues such as peace, security and prosperity so completely the wrong way round then yes they're "a bunch of thickos" who can't see beyond their hatred of foreigners.
she has managed to get herself in a position where the Left can form a government by itself, and she can only govern with SPD support. That's not a strong hand. She will need a big shift in the opinion polls to be Chancellor again and just maybe the "time for a change" theme is starting to work against her. So far Schulz big attraction has been he's a fresh face.
Not very clever
Negotiations are going nowhere, and never could. Rock hard Brexit is the destination and we shouldn’t waste too much time planning for anything else.
Presumably that's higher as well, since immigration control, while not a concern of mine, is backed by more than 52% I believe.
last time Merkel screwed up her majority by not asking her voters to lend the FDP some votes to get them over the hurdle. It forced her in to a coalition with the SPD.
IanCDennis @iancdennis
#brexit #marr would Gina miller insisted parliament voted on NOT to trigger article 50 , and NOT to Brexit etc if country had voted remain ?
What really astonishes me is how little you and your like did about it. You contributed how many £100s to the Remain campaign? None. You campaigned on the streets or the phone banks for how many hours? None. For you, the real fightback started on 24/6/16 because the idea of actually exerting yourself to achieve your desired result, at the time it might have made a difference, was just too challenging. Who is the thicko here?
A Remainer Parliament cannot be trusted with executing the Leave vote. Theresa May has taken on the mantle and must be allowed to do the job.
Meanwhile Bangladesh have 33 to get of 27 overs after tea. Which in Sri Lanka is rather good.,And India are 90 ahead of the Aussies.
I see John Major has gone mad!
On Topic: Ali doesn't think much of Theresa. Who knew? Who knew?
Personally I expect Merkel to be able to stay, in a result that will have some siimilarities to Netherlands - serious losses for the centre-right, but no convincing alternative. If the SPD makes further progress or the FDP drop under thew 5% threshold, Schulz might make it.
Here's the latest poll and comparisons, so readers can judge for themselves (other polls are similar):
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm
On topic, it's usually best to avoid the glorious subshine and horrible apocalypse scenarios beloved of journalists (newspaper motto: "simply, then exaggerate"). There will be a deal, and it'll be hard to characterise as soft or hard as it will have both elements, a result of the messy multi-headed negotiations that are coming. We will probably uneasily embrace it and life will become uncomfortable for some years.
As I pointed out earlier, the status of non EU non EEA nationals is a competence of national governments not the European parliament. Unless we remain in the EEA, the EU cannot enforce residency rights for British citizens in the EU. We could have 27 bilateral arrangements, I suppose.
Keep them coming!!