politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth
Over the past week YouGov, Ipsos-MORI and now ComRes have found UKIP in fourth place. Partly this is down to the LDs advancing and partly to UKIP’s shares slipping.
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Ultimately, the US wants to leave the WTO so it can impose terms on others. The WTO stops large countries from bullying smaller ones. We, as a mid sized country, benefit from the world's trade being rule based. If the US were to leave the WTO so as to levy discriminatory tariffs, that would not be a positive for the world.
Donald Trump has a fundamental misunderstanding. Trade deficits are not caused by having too low tariffs with China, or a too expensive currency. If they were, then Switzerland (zero tariffs with China, and an incredibly expensive currency) would have a massive trade deficit. It actually has a trade surplus.
Trade deficits are the result of consumers spending too much and saving too little. There is a near perfect correlation between savings rates and trade balances. So long as American consumers wish to consume more than they make, the US will run a trade deficit.
To solve America's trade deficit you need to implement policies that - as Germany did in the early 2000s - depress consumption. This works two ways: firstly it means you suck in less in exports immediately. And secondarily, it lowers the cost of capital for business, encouraging investment, and - longer-term - boosting exports.
What is the US doing instead? They are implementing a massive stimulus package that will... oh yes... cause US consumer spending to rise, paid for by rising US debt.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/843160705943715844
Scarcely watched any rugby (checked the England score, though. Disappointing) but was perplexed and intrigued by the 100 minute game in France. The Welsh must be a bit pissed off.
On-topic: as Mr. Quidder said, this is the new normal.
Mr. Artist, yes, I read that too.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/843160164257726464
SNP 52
Con 21
LDem 14
Lab 9
Green 3
I cant see Labour closing the gap.
Any thoughts on now some Russian oligarch and George Osborne have made your profession look ridiculous.
I don't know where this idea was implanted that just because a seat was Labour and it voted to Leave, therefore all Labour supporters are for Leave.
It is perfectly possible for Labour to get 50% of the vote and yet only 25% of the Leave voters being Labour voters even though that seat overall voted Leave.
Holyrood voting intention (const): SNP: 51% (+3) CON: 24% (-1) LAB: 14% (-1) LDEM: 6% (-) GRN: 4% (+1) (via YouGov / 09 - 14 Mar)
Holyrood voting intention (list): SNP: 40% (+1) CON: 25% (+1) LAB: 14% (-) GRN: 12% (+1) LDEM: 5% (-1) (via YouGov / 09 - 14 Mar)
Ironically much better for the Tories and not so good for the LDs. how amusing of Mark Senior to omit it.
from wikipidia, seats won at last elections (so will have changed a bit from by-elections)
England 538
Scotland 394
Wales 577
Total: 1509
As an aside, does anybody expect UKIP to do well in the welsh LG elections?
14/03/13
Lab 37
Con 28
LibD 9
24/03/13
Lab 38
Con 28
Libd 12
19/03/09
Con 41
Lab 30
LibD 17
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/communicate
Labour polled much worse in the corresponding May local elections than ComRes polled them in March.
The reaction is about privilege versus meritocracy, responsibility to your job and the willingness of senior politicians to arse-lick dubious people.
Con 42% Lab 27% LibDem 7% UKIP 15% Grn 3%
No change in Tory share over 16 months - slight fall in Labour vote - but the main changes relate to UKIP and the LibDems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png
Because that obviously happens at some point.
At which point I don't know but there appears to be the assumption among some people that lower tax on high earners is always the right thing to do.
Would you, for example, support a lower rate of tax on high earners than what the median person pays ?
Actual vote shares were
2009
Con 43.5%
Lab 13.5%
LDem 24.7%
UKIP 4.6%
Green 4.4%
BNP 2.5%
Others 6.8%
2013
Con 34.5%
Lab 21.3%
LDem 13.7%
UKIP 20.2%
Green 3.4%
BNP 0.3%
Others 6.6%
It would be interesting to see the 2015 GE vote shares for only the seats with elections this May . I suspect the Conservatives would be around 50%
Blimey, another poor first half for England, followed by a poorer second half. #Frustrating.
They peaked in Australia.
And its NEV which matters not actual votes.
https://twitter.com/NoQuotesPowell/status/843165862995660800
- next week's S.30 shenanigans will no doubt have an impact !!
Stranger things have happened in boxing, mind..
You might say we were too reliant on him and that might be true (Hughes and Harrison aren't in the same league as him), but when he is in the team and firing all cylinders he makes a massive difference.
England looked tense from the start, I'm just annoyed I didn't think of having a bet at that point.
I think this would generate the most amount of money from high earners, most - well almost everybody likes to think of themselves as a good person, and will only do bad things if they can find a way of justifying them and saying they are not bad. for some rich people this will be 'pore people don't pay income tax and middle income people use ISAs and pensions to avoid paying tax so why shouldn't I try to do the same. it may feel odd to those of us not earning very high incomes but may of those that do feel that the 50% and now 45% victimise them.
What do you think?
Throughout the 6-nations England gave every team they played plenty of the ball and won several matches by having amazing defence for long spells.
Alex Ferguson wouldn't have them going...cough cough Ryan Giggs...
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/843176874985578497
If we can get enough ball, he always looks like he can create some special.
Johhny May on the other hand...he might be as fast as a 100m sprinter but he looks like the opposition blowing on him is enough to get him to the ground.
http://labourlist.org/2017/03/luke-akehurst-what-would-a-good-series-of-local-election-results-look-like/
Non vintage year.
But I prefer to do so on a NEV basis.
It is after all the basis upon which they're reported:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013
The problem with looking at actual vote chares is that not every year has the same set of elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39314250
They have updated the article, but it is appears to have to be dragged out of them slowly.
"Speaking on Thursday, Mrs May told an interviewer: ‘When the SNP government say that it’s the time to start talking about a new independence referendum, I say that just at this point, all our energies should be focused on our negotiations with the European Union about our future relationship… That’s my job as Prime Minister. Right now we should be working together, not pulling apart. And so, for that reason, I say to the SNP, now is not the time.’
This was pitched perfectly to Scottish voters, to whom she was really talking. The Prime Minister refused to be drawn into an unseemly public spat with the SNP leader, instead making her common sense case to the electorate. Westminster, she was saying, was not preventing Scotland from holding another independence referendum. But we have Brexit to get through so let’s stick with one constitutional crisis at a time."
"Every time the Nats get themselves into a jam, every time it looks like they might finally have to stop girning and start governing, up pop the six little anoraks, festooned with CND badges and brimming with good intentions, and they come to the rescue. Time after time, Mr Harvie drags the SNP out of a hole and gets nothing in return except a pat on the head. That isn’t leadership; it’s the political instincts of Lassie.
The Greens’ amening of Miss Sturgeon’s gambit is different from previous acts of handmaidenry because it breaks the party’s pledge to the voters. In the manifesto they were elected on last May, the Greens promised"
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv
Christ knows.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.