politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 11 percent lead in first of tonight’s polls

Tim_B said:

College Game Day was in Clemson this morning,

Ready for the BIG game tomorrow?

Interesting on BBC Parl at the mo'... you can restart on here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/tv/bbcparliament/live

Scott_P said:

Tim_B said:

College Game Day was in Clemson this morning,

Ready for the BIG game tomorrow?

Peyton's return to Indy?

As you know, I'm not a fan.....

http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/17/dallas-cowboys-harris-poll-most-popular/

Table on UKPR says last Opinium was C 31, L 35.

Implies tonight's poll is C -4. But Anthony says C -2.

What is striking is how few kippers ALL the telephone polls have in their base numbers compared to online polls.

Sean_F said:

tim said:

MikeK said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, you think Thatcher had a defeatist agenda?

No. An exeption; but her ministers did and acted against Thatcher, undermining her at every chance. In the end they knifed her. Thats your Tory party.

Thatcher believed in free movement of labour, sad little Englanders don't

Did she? Where do you get that extraordinary notion from?

It's reasonably supported by this myth-debunking analysis:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-thatcher-myths

I don't remember Thatcher ever expressing concern about European immigration. In general, though, it's difficult to guess how historical figures would have reacted to current controversies. A lot of people seem in reality to adopt a position on, say, the "moderate right" or the "hard left" and adopt whatever ideas seem to be current in that part of the spectrum at the time. I was anti-EU in 1973 (it's a capitalist body which will delay socialism in Britain) and I'm pro-EU now (it's a sensible partnership that helps modernise Britain) - is that really because I've reconsidered, or because the terms of the debate have changed and I've moved with my gang? A bit of both, perhaps.

NickPalmer said:

Sean_F said:

tim said:

MikeK said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, you think Thatcher had a defeatist agenda?

No. An exeption; but her ministers did and acted against Thatcher, undermining her at every chance. In the end they knifed her. Thats your Tory party.

Thatcher believed in free movement of labour, sad little Englanders don't

Did she? Where do you get that extraordinary notion from?

It's reasonably supported by this myth-debunking analysis:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-thatcher-myths

I don't remember Thatcher ever expressing concern about European immigration. In general, though, it's difficult to guess how historical figures would have reacted to current controversies. A lot of people seem in reality to adopt a position on, say, the "moderate right" or the "hard left" and adopt whatever ideas seem to be current in that part of the spectrum at the time. I was anti-EU in 1973 (it's a capitalist body which will delay socialism in Britain) and I'm pro-EU now (it's a sensible partnership that helps modernise Britain) - is that really because I've reconsidered, or because the terms of the debate have changed and I've moved with my gang? A bit of both, perhaps.

It's because you are a politician, Dr. Palmer.

SMukesh said:

Clegg disowning Tory flagship education policy.I wonder what he knows and we don`t

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/clegg-gove-schools-education-policy

Just to bad your new labour shadow education sec as fallen in love with free schools.

Tykejohnno said:

SMukesh said:

Clegg disowning Tory flagship education policy.I wonder what he knows and we don`t

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/19/clegg-gove-schools-education-policy

Just to bad your new labour shadow education sec as fallen in love with free schools.

It`s easy to `u` turn in opposition,cue watch the emerging `u` turn on HS2.

If problems start emerging in free shools,Labour will `u` turn before you can say `free schools`.They don`t like the policy anyway.

Pulpstar said:

My God England have lost in Rugby League to Italy !

Thats a bit like Iran beating England in the footy or some such.

Could have got 500-1 on Betfair !

England face the aussies in opener of world cup next week ;-)

@SMukesh

"Clegg disowning Tory flagship education policy.I wonder what he knows and we don`t"

"The Observer can reveal that a second unqualified headteacher of a free school has quit her post following criticism. Last week the Guardian revealed that Annaliese Briggs, a 27-year-old with no teaching qualifications who had been appointed as headteacher of Pimlico free school in London, had resigned after just three weeks in the job."

Good grief! Surely It's now time for Gove to step down.

Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 1m

@MSmithsonPB @OpiniumResearch Cam's (33% appr, 51% disappr, -18% net) now almost level with Ed M (25% approve, 44% disapprove, -19% net).

Changes from their last poll

DC minus 8

Ed plus 2

Which maybe simple unwind as the last poll showed a 7 plus increase for Dave

Roger said:

a second unqualified headteacher of a free school has quit her post following criticism.

Good grief! Surely It's now time for Gove to step down.

Shocking!

Under Labour they would have kept their jobs!

Gove must go!

SeanT said:

Can I just say how much I agree with the new idea of a third class on Britain's railways.

Recently, in First Class, I have found myself sharing a carriage with perfectly ordinary members of the middle classes: lawyers, accountants, advertising directors, wine merchants, politicians. I have no objection to these people sipping their "teas" and "coffees" in a nice seat, but surely there should be some "middling class" on the railways - a premium economy, as it were, or Budget Business, befitting their true social status?

First Class would therefore be reserved for immediate members of Europe's major royal families, heads of state and their spouses, and creative artists earning over £300,000 a year - a proper First Class.

This would surely decrease unsightly social friction for everyone.

First Class = Snob Class
Business = Spiv Class
Economy/Standard = Steerage

Roger said:

@SMukesh

"Clegg disowning Tory flagship education policy.I wonder what he knows and we don`t"

"The Observer can reveal that a second unqualified headteacher of a free school has quit her post following criticism. Last week the Guardian revealed that Annaliese Briggs, a 27-year-old with no teaching qualifications who had been appointed as headteacher of Pimlico free school in London, had resigned after just three weeks in the job."

Good grief! Surely It's now time for Gove to step down.

It is the product of creative tension, Roger.

Both the events at the Al-Madinah Free School in Derby and the resignation of Annaliese Briggs are symptoms of risk taking and innovation. Provided these incidents remain a tiny proportion of all activity in free schools they represent success rather than failure.

Innovation and creation require risk taking and experimentation. Not all risks pay back with rewards: not all experiments lead to success.

The fact that the current embedded educational system is being challenged is a cause for celebration.

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

a second unqualified headteacher of a free school has quit her post following criticism.

Good grief! Surely It's now time for Gove to step down.

Shocking!

Under Labour they would have kept their job!

Gove must go!

It`s Lab policy not to have unqualified teachers,never mind heads in schools.

SMukesh said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

a second unqualified headteacher of a free school has quit her post following criticism.

Good grief! Surely It's now time for Gove to step down.

Shocking!

Under Labour they would have kept their job!

Gove must go!

It`s Lab policy not to have unqualified teachers,never mind heads in schools.

It's also Labour practice to have State schools in "special measures" for years - has The Hon Hunt complained about that?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SeanT said:

Can I just say how much I agree with the new idea of a third class on Britain's railways.

Recently, in First Class, I have found myself sharing a carriage with perfectly ordinary members of the middle classes: lawyers, accountants, advertising directors, wine merchants, politicians. I have no objection to these people sipping their "teas" and "coffees" in a nice seat, but surely there should be some "middling class" on the railways - a premium economy, as it were, or Budget Business, befitting their true social status?

First Class would therefore be reserved for immediate members of Europe's major royal families, heads of state and their spouses, and creative artists earning over £300,000 a year - a proper First Class.

This would surely decrease unsightly social friction for everyone.

First Class = Snob Class
Business = Spiv Class
Economy/Standard = Steerage

Comrade Sunil

Richard Branson's original plans for Virgin Atlantic were to have three classes branded as follows:

First Class = Upper Class
Business & Premium Economy = Middle Class
Economy = Riff Raff

His marketing people researched the proposals and delivered results which persuaded him to back off.

Another instance where pollsters got it wrong!

SeanT said:

First Class would therefore be reserved for immediate members of Europe's major royal families, heads of state and their spouses, and creative artists earning over £300,000 a year - a proper First class

In the days of the Cunard Queens, the crew reckoned the real quality travelled second class (Cabin) - First class was full of frightful vulgarians.....

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Grandiose said:

tim said:

MikeK said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, you think Thatcher had a defeatist agenda?

No. An exeption; but her ministers did and acted against Thatcher, undermining her at every chance. In the end they knifed her. Thats your Tory party.

Thatcher believed in free movement of labour, sad little Englanders don't

When it came to it, Thatcher only had to think about the then members of what is now the EU, leaving her free to be flexible about her views when she left Number 10. Not sure she's the peg to hang the free movement of persons on.

Keeping immigration up is GOOD for the economy.

Cutting immigration is BAD

Get that into your head

I don't know why you think that.

Because whilst Mike loves to talk about the disjunction between the Tory lead on the economy, and the Labour lead on personal standard of living, he doesn't seem to compute that immigration is good for the economy in blunt aggregate, but bad for the majority of British people on the bottom half of the income ladder.

They don't mess about in the USA.
JPMorgan Chase and the Justice Department are moving closer to a $13 billion settlement over the bank’s mortgage practices, a record penalty that would cap weeks of heated negotiating and underscore the extent of the bank’s legal woes, people briefed on the talks said.

SeanT said:

Can I just say how much I agree with the new idea of a third class on Britain's railways.

Recently, in First Class, I have found myself sharing a carriage with perfectly ordinary members of the middle classes: lawyers, accountants, advertising directors, wine merchants, politicians. I have no objection to these people sipping their "teas" and "coffees" in a nice seat, but surely there should be some "middling class" on the railways - a premium economy, as it were, or Budget Business, befitting their true social status?

First Class would therefore be reserved for immediate members of Europe's major royal families, heads of state and their spouses, and creative artists earning over £300,000 a year - a proper First Class.

This would surely decrease unsightly social friction for everyone.

If perching on my wheelie case for two plus hours next to a stinky toilet (with a *sur-prise!* opening door) surrounded by a load of hairdressers on route to the 'Tony and Guy' xmas bash isn't third class then I'd like to see what is.

CarlottaVance said:

SeanT said:

First Class would therefore be reserved for immediate members of Europe's major royal families, heads of state and their spouses, and creative artists earning over £300,000 a year - a proper First class

In the days of the Cunard Queens, the crew reckoned the real quality travelled second class (Cabin) - First class was full of frightful vulgarians.....

Carlotta

My proposal:

First Class = "New Money"
Premium Economy = "Old Money"
Economy = "No Money"

And then there might be room for:

Business Class = "Someone Else's Money"

@alstewitn: A joke: "So, 3 pollsters walk into a room and ask 'Who would you vote for if there was a General Election tomorrow?' #Indy #Observer #Mirror

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

"Get your shit stars off our flag"

I hope in the civilised, post-Yes period it never descends to a "Get your shit saltire off our flag" moment (unless we've beaten you 3-1).

I don't what it is about Australia that makes winning against them so enjoyable, and defeat so depressing.

No other country, even France, inspires such emotions in me.

Though I do sing "Ou est le papier" during La Marseillaise.

I promise, post independence, I will still cheer for the Scottish football team (except when they play England)

What did you make of Salmond's speech ?

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

"Get your shit stars off our flag"

I hope in the civilised, post-Yes period it never descends to a "Get your shit saltire off our flag" moment (unless we've beaten you 3-1).

I don't what it is about Australia that makes winning against them so enjoyable, and defeat so depressing.

No other country, even France, inspires such emotions in me.

Though I do sing "Ou est le papier" during La Marseillaise.

I promise, post independence, I will still cheer for the Scottish football team (except when they play England)

What did you make of Salmond's speech ?

Unfortunately I missed it.

@Avery

"She could have sat on your lap, Roger"

But I'm not a Catholic.

SeanT said:

Can I just say how much I agree with the new idea of a third class on Britain's railways.

Recently, in First Class, I have found myself sharing a carriage with perfectly ordinary members of the middle classes: lawyers, accountants, advertising directors, wine merchants, politicians. I have no objection to these people sipping their "teas" and "coffees" in a nice seat, but surely there should be some "middling class" on the railways - a premium economy, as it were, or Budget Business, befitting their true social status?

First Class would therefore be reserved for immediate members of Europe's major royal families, heads of state and their spouses, and creative artists earning over £300,000 a year - a proper First Class.

This would surely decrease unsightly social friction for everyone.

In your job you should remember that you are like WWII air crew. You don't get paid more, just faster. Today's payday may be your last.

Or

How do you get a Nun pregnant?

Dress her up as an Altar Boy

As someone who despises UKIP's policy on wind turbines and other renewable energies, I have to say that these polls are really quite stunning for the party.

Front of telegraph looks at all those PRO EU propagandist,including the BBC.

And a tory plan to cut green taxes ;-)

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/86854/the_sunday_telegraph_saturday_19th_october_2013.html

Analysis: Was the BBC's reporting of migrant issue fair and balanced?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10391242/Analysis-Was-the-BBCs-reporting-of-migrant-issue-fair-and-balanced.html

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Grandiose said:

tim said:

MikeK said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, you think Thatcher had a defeatist agenda?

No. An exeption; but her ministers did and acted against Thatcher, undermining her at every chance. In the end they knifed her. Thats your Tory party.

Thatcher believed in free movement of labour, sad little Englanders don't

When it came to it, Thatcher only had to think about the then members of what is now the EU, leaving her free to be flexible about her views when she left Number 10. Not sure she's the peg to hang the free movement of persons on.

Keeping immigration up is GOOD for the economy.

Cutting immigration is BAD

Get that into your head

I don't know why you think that.

Mike thinks that because as a member of the upper middle classes he gets the advantages of immigration but doesn't suffer the disadvantages.

There was a poll last week which showed that Lib Dems (uniquely) had found EE handymen useful - no other VI did.....

tim said:

IDS complaining about accuracy on this issue?

"Iain Duncan Smith's £2bn benefit tourism estimate cut by 92%"

Never take IDS seriously on facts

Self awareness lad ,lol

Clegg condemns schools which are allowed to hire "under qualified" teachers - like academy schools.

Clegg sends his kids to an academy school.....

"Do as I say, not do as I do....."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10391220/Nuclear-given-final-green-light.html

Hmm, methinks someone from the Telegraph was reading PB the other day:

"Under the deal, EDF will be guaranteed about £90 to £93 for every megawatt hour of power Hinkley Point generates for 35 years from when it starts operating in the early 2020s.
The market price – currently about half that level – will be “topped up” through levies."

"Ed Davey, the Energy Secretary, will insist that investing in nuclear will save consumers money compared to the costs of doing nothing and that nuclear is cheaper than offshore wind, which toward the end of this decade will be offered £135/MWh for 15-year contracts."

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Clegg condemns schools which are allowed to hire "under qualified" teachers - like academy schools.

Clegg sends his kids to an academy school.....

"Do as I say, not do as I do....."

CarlottaVance said:

Clegg condemns schools which are allowed to hire "under qualified" teachers - like academy schools.

Clegg sends his kids to an academy school.....

"Do as I say, not do as I do....."

He must be under serious internal pressure.

Clegg's old school, Westminster, also has "unqualified" teachers......

So, its ok for him to go to a school with unqualified teachers, send his kids to a school allowed to hire unqualified teachers (The London Oratory)......but its not ok for you oiks to do the same......

Was there a vote on that change last year or was it a Gove edict?

Was it a change, or a simple extension of Labour's academy program?

While we're on it The Hon Tristram I've got a PhD from Cambridge you know Hunt's school, University College School, as an independent school (part of the Eton group) is also free to hire "un/under"-qualified teachers....is he going to change that too?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_College_School

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

MikeK said:

Cleggs move on Free Schools and Academies could prove the beginning of the end for the Coalition.

Nope. Its all about But positioning for 2015 - both coalition parties have started doing it. Though whether Clegg is going to impose mandatory QTS on schools like his old one, Westminster, is unclear.....

Westminster isn't state funded
Goves Madrassas and mates schools are state funded, although in secret.

But according to Clegg, the issue is about:

"I also believe every parent needs reassurance that the school their child attends, whatever its title or structure, meets certain core standards of teaching and care – a parental guarantee, if you like."

Or does the parental guarantee not extend to the parents of people like himself & the Hon Hunt?

O/T

Can I just say how weird Tristram Hunt's Spectator Notes was this week?

His opening paragraph was about how much he enjoyed sitting on the front bench watching David Cameron go red in the face.

That the sort of juvenilia I'd expect from a bloke posting anonymously on a website. Not from someone who aspires to be in the Cabinet.

ONE OF THE MINOR sociological treats of being appointed shadow education secretary is a frontbench view of David Cameron’s crimson tide — that half hour journey, every Question Time, during which the Prime Minister’s face turns from beatific calm to unedifying fury.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/diary/9057051/tristram-hunts-diary-a-close-up-view-of-david-camerons-rage-face/

fitalass said:

Clegg distancing himself from yet another flagship Coalition policy, this is a bad habit that he seems incapable of breaking as we head to the next GE. Clegg, the man from the Libdems who likes to say 'yeah, but no' every time one of his own Coalition Government's policies hit a few rough headlines.

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

Clegg condemns schools which are allowed to hire "under qualified" teachers - like academy schools.

Clegg sends his kids to an academy school.....

"Do as I say, not do as I do....."

He must be under serious internal pressure.

I get the feeling Vince and Lord Oakshott are calling the shots at the moment...

@tim - ŵhat ever the (limited) merits of the policy it's good politics "The Lib Dems stopped us cutting Ed's green taxes"....