politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be anot
Comments
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Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues.Big_G_NorthWales said:Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.0 -
With it being an election offence presumably any conviction should trigger one? Like Phil Woolas?MikeL said:
And presumably it must be deliberate fraud by the MP personally?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky are saying that the CPS have to prove deliberate fraud to obtain a conviction.williamglenn said:
Also the Electoral Commission are sending a report to the Conservatives next week.
This could involve all parties in one way or another and would point to ambiguous wording in the legislation.
We will see in due course how this pans out
As to lose their seat the MP personally would have to be convicted and sent to prison for at least a year (though in practice they would probably resign if given any prison sentence).0 -
Yes it did the manifesto obviously does not mean anything.However the commitment not to increase NICs Vat Income Tax is a strong one in a close election.surbiton said:
Didn't it say somewhere that they would stay in the Single Market ?another_richard said:
The Conservative manifesto also had this commitment:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure the central issue for Theresa May was that it broke the manifesto commitment.another_richard said:So Hammond humiliated.
What have we learnt from this ?
1) The Conservative party doesn't have many fiscal conservatives
2) Proper preparation involves more than thinking up party political point scoring
3) Vested interests which scream the loudest get protected the most
4) If a small, progressive, fair and popular tax rise can be stopped then national bankruptcy lies ahead
Hammond was not politically switched on but think he will survive, but should have done better
' Running a surplus by 2018 so that the UK "starts to pay down its debts" '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32302062
Where was the outcry when that commitment was broken ?0 -
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said:0 -
So last night's London News featured a story about a mock up road warning sign with an Orthodox Jewish man in a red warning triangle. This had been put up in Stamford Hill and was another example antisemitism which has been infecting North London.
Well, turns out this was part of a series of "artistic" signs by some French artist. And that makes it okay:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-392755810 -
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.chestnut said:
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.Alistair said:
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?chestnut said:@BlackRook
A fair assessment.
I think we've passed peak Indy and peak SNP.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.0 -
I think he'll be out when Theresa has her next reshuffle.peter_from_putney said:
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues.Big_G_NorthWales said:Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...0 -
Yes as "part of a European Union". We rejected that at the referendum.surbiton said:
Didn't it say somewhere that they would stay in the Single Market ?another_richard said:
The Conservative manifesto also had this commitment:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure the central issue for Theresa May was that it broke the manifesto commitment.another_richard said:So Hammond humiliated.
What have we learnt from this ?
1) The Conservative party doesn't have many fiscal conservatives
2) Proper preparation involves more than thinking up party political point scoring
3) Vested interests which scream the loudest get protected the most
4) If a small, progressive, fair and popular tax rise can be stopped then national bankruptcy lies ahead
Hammond was not politically switched on but think he will survive, but should have done better
' Running a surplus by 2018 so that the UK "starts to pay down its debts" '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32302062
Where was the outcry when that commitment was broken ?0 -
Ken Clarke !!GIN1138 said:
I think he'll be out when Theresa has her next reshuffle.peter_from_putney said:
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues.Big_G_NorthWales said:Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...0 -
A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
Er.... Nope!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Ken Clarke !!GIN1138 said:
I think he'll be out when Theresa has her next reshuffle.peter_from_putney said:
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues.Big_G_NorthWales said:Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...
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'4) If a small, progressive, fair and popular tax rise can be stopped then national bankruptcy lies ahead '
Agree with this. A few Tory back benchers wagging the dog, as it were. Labour could have supported the government and created a schism between them and their own back benchers. Of course that would require a level of thinking completely absent on the Labour benches. Watching PMQs today, Corbyn looks increasingly pitiful as every week goes by. The way he was shuffling his scripted questions around trying to find the right subject was humiliating. May knew exactly how Corbyn would react to the announcement, and what should have been a tap in from 2 yards out for Labour, once again looked like an act of self immolation. Government incompetence matched by even worse incompetence from Labour leader.
Anyway, just think what a Tony Blair, or indeed a David Cameron, would have done as Loto in the face of this shambles from the Tories. They would have kicked Hammond and May to pieces.0 -
Is it OK for Brexiteers that are in favour or neutral on SINDY to speak though?Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ? -1 -
So long as the Remainers who support Scottish independence do the same then that sounds fair.Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
As a previous remainer and a Scottish wife who was also a previous remainer but who now accept the will of the people, but also as pro Unionist we will promote Scotland in the UK at every opportunityNigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
And not for the first time either.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Richard, Zhuge Liang wrote:
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.0 -
How many of them are there on here? There are people who have said that they would regret Scotland leaving the Union, while others are questioning whether it's a wise thing to do, but I don't think there are too many opposing Scotland having the right to decide for themselves.Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
Fine by me - I'm a Remainer in favour of the Union.Philip_Thompson said:
So long as the Remainers who support Scottish independence do the same then that sounds fair.Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
How many Chancellors acted that way since the 24/7 news media arrived?another_richard said:
And not for the first time either.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Richard, Zhuge Liang wrote:
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.0 -
Absolutely .GIN1138 said:
Is it OK for Brexiteers that are in favour or neutral on SINDY to speak though?Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
Cool we can go through this referendum with no SNP. Who's telling Sturgeon that?Nigelb said:
Fine by me - I'm a Remainer in favour of the Union.Philip_Thompson said:
So long as the Remainers who support Scottish independence do the same then that sounds fair.Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?0 -
And this being the case, probably Scottish independence is probably the best solution.Black_Rook said:
Partitioning England into convenient, roughly Scotland-sized provinces, would never fly. It's a neat idea in theory; in practice, most of them would be artificial, and nobody wants eight, nine or ten separate governments each with a separate set of policies in most domestic areas and - more to the point - separate legal systems. And nor can you get away with creating these provinces but just giving them less authority than that enjoyed by Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: if you don't have the same extent of devolution of power, or as near as makes no difference, to all the states in a federal system then the West Lothian Question is not answered satisfactorily.williamglenn said:The big train set problem could be solved by recreating Mercia, Wessex etc, and having a balanced federation. Really this should have been thought about 100 years ago, and failing that at least at the time the Scottish Parliament was reestablished.
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G-Live - A little word on Dutch Election timings:
Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT)
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
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There's definitely a graph just like that with the VVD more comfortably ahead - an update since the 10th, perhaps?peter_from_putney said:
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said:0 -
The Scots should have three choices.williamglenn said:
And this being the case, probably Scottish independence is probably the best solution.Black_Rook said:
Partitioning England into convenient, roughly Scotland-sized provinces, would never fly. It's a neat idea in theory; in practice, most of them would be artificial, and nobody wants eight, nine or ten separate governments each with a separate set of policies in most domestic areas and - more to the point - separate legal systems. And nor can you get away with creating these provinces but just giving them less authority than that enjoyed by Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: if you don't have the same extent of devolution of power, or as near as makes no difference, to all the states in a federal system then the West Lothian Question is not answered satisfactorily.williamglenn said:The big train set problem could be solved by recreating Mercia, Wessex etc, and having a balanced federation. Really this should have been thought about 100 years ago, and failing that at least at the time the Scottish Parliament was reestablished.
1: Independent nation.
2: Devolved nation, with no Westminster votes on Devolved matters.
3: End devolution, return to previous arrangements.
Each is fair and let them decide their own fate.0 -
My view as a Brexiteer is that there is no point trying to hold onto someone who does not want to be with you. I think the UK is better off with Scotland in the Union, but am in no position to judge whether Scots are or are not. If non-economic arguments are valid for Brits re Brexit, they are just as valid for Scots re Sindy.Nigelb said:
Absolutely .GIN1138 said:
Is it OK for Brexiteers that are in favour or neutral on SINDY to speak though?Nigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
Personally, I think the economic arguments for the UK leaving the EU are stronger than for Scotland leaving the UK (regardless of whether it joins the EU or EFTA-EEA), but that is irrelevant to Scots' making their decisions.0 -
Yes but will we have a clear idea of the future government before Christmas 2017?SimonStClare said:G-Live - A little word on Dutch Election timings:
Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT)
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT0 -
Yes but that's like the PM's position so your leaver scum now!Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a previous remainer and a Scottish wife who was also a previous remainer but who now accept the will of the people, but also as pro Unionist we will promote Scotland in the UK at every opportunityNigelb said:A modest proposal....
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ? 0 -
Governing party swingback ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
There's definitely a graph just like that with the VVD more comfortably ahead - an update since the 10th, perhaps?peter_from_putney said:
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said:0 -
Not for the PvdA!Pulpstar said:
Governing party swingback ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
There's definitely a graph just like that with the VVD more comfortably ahead - an update since the 10th, perhaps?peter_from_putney said:
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said:
Edit: updated graph here
http://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
@SimonStClare @peter_from_putney0 -
I'm reliably told by Brexiteers that the EU will form the government.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but will we have a clear idea of the future government before Christmas 2017?SimonStClare said:G-Live - A little word on Dutch Election timings:
Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT)
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT0 -
Of course we will, this is Holland, not Belgium.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes but will we have a clear idea of the future government before Christmas 2017?SimonStClare said:G-Live - A little word on Dutch Election timings:
Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT)
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
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Isn't Rutte the government leader though ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not for the PvdA!Pulpstar said:
Governing party swingback ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
There's definitely a graph just like that with the VVD more comfortably ahead - an update since the 10th, perhaps?peter_from_putney said:
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said:0 -
No question that the press today likes to create mass hysteria after a budget statement. Anything to sell newspapers in these desperate time for the press. The logic of any policy does not count - it's how can you stir up the readers.Philip_Thompson said:
How many Chancellors acted that way since the 24/7 news media arrived?another_richard said:
And not for the first time either.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Richard, Zhuge Liang wrote:
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.
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Oh yes... are you suggesting junior coalition partners aren't in governmentPulpstar said:
Isn't Rutte the government leader though ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not for the PvdA!Pulpstar said:
Governing party swingback ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
There's definitely a graph just like that with the VVD more comfortably ahead - an update since the 10th, perhaps?peter_from_putney said:
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said: 0 -
If there's a big swing back to Rutte it will be very good news for all of us. I've no doubt that Erdogan was deliberately trying to stir up trouble before the election to give the extremists a boost and it seems to have backfired. Our enemies need to think twice before trying to use our democracy against us.0
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Mr. Perdix, that isn't confined to Budgets. Let's not forget the emotional shrieking when the Coalition Government failed to wave a magic wand to mysteriously whisk oil workers from the middle of the Libyan desert.
Edited extra bit: to clarify, I mean shrieking from the media. Family members being concerned is entirely natural, the media demanding to know why the Government hasn't bent the laws of time and space to evacuate people is daft.0 -
Anything to get clicks/viewers too.perdix said:
No question that the press today likes to create mass hysteria after a budget statement. Anything to sell newspapers in these desperate time for the press. The logic of any policy does not count - it's how can you stir up the readers.Philip_Thompson said:
How many Chancellors acted that way since the 24/7 news media arrived?another_richard said:
And not for the first time either.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Richard, Zhuge Liang wrote:
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.0 -
They don't seem to get swing back...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Oh yes... are you suggesting junior coalition partners aren't in governmentPulpstar said:
Isn't Rutte the government leader though ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not for the PvdA!Pulpstar said:
Governing party swingback ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
There's definitely a graph just like that with the VVD more comfortably ahead - an update since the 10th, perhaps?peter_from_putney said:
VVD best odds with only 2 bookies still offering - both go 4/6.SimonStClare said:0 -
Dutch TV links which seem to be working ok for me:
http://nos.nl/livestream/npo-politiek
http://nos.nl/livestream/npo-nieuws
Polls close 8pm UK time.
1st results expected 8.45 onwards, Rozendaal, Renswoude, Schiermonnikoog may be some of the early ones. 1st two are safe VVD and Schier'koog is VVD v PvdA.
Below site is searchable 2012 district results:
http://www.verkiezingskaart.nl/#
Enjoy!!
DC0 -
Rush on money on Wilders, not really correlated to a move for the PVV. Has someone said they'd support him?0
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Even Dutch cows are facing discrimination...
https://twitter.com/amberinzaman/status/8420561901924270080 -
Very helpful DC (and others) thanksDoubleCarpet said:Dutch TV links which seem to be working ok for me:
http://nos.nl/livestream/npo-politiek
http://nos.nl/livestream/npo-nieuws
Polls close 8pm UK time.
1st results expected 8.45 onwards, Rozendaal, Renswoude, Schiermonnikoog may be some of the early ones. 1st two are safe VVD and Schier'koog is VVD v PvdA.
Below site is searchable 2012 district results:
http://www.verkiezingskaart.nl/#
Enjoy!!
DC0 -
Ok lads, 'fess up, which one of you is this guy?
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonuk/status/842082651578216448
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/8420239028345241600 -
I love how in Greece, Spain, Netherlands etc. it is always exit poll0
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0
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Ruth Davidson tweeted a link to *that*? And she's the one who's going to save the Union??Theuniondivvie said:Ok lads, 'fess up, which one of you is this guy?
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Spoofer (not the guy tho')williamglenn said:
Ruth Davidson tweeted a link to *that*? And she's the one who's going to save the Union??Theuniondivvie said:Ok lads, 'fess up, which one of you is this guy?
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Philip_Thompson said:
The Scots should have three choices.williamglenn said:
And this being the case, probably Scottish independence is probably the best solution.Black_Rook said:
Partitioning England into convenient, roughly Scotland-sized provinces, would never fly. It's a neat idea in theory; in practice, most of them would be artificial, and nobody wants eight, nine or ten separate governments each with a separate set of policies in most domestic areas and - more to the point - separate legal systems. And nor can you get away with creating these provinces but just giving them less authority than that enjoyed by Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: if you don't have the same extent of devolution of power, or as near as makes no difference, to all the states in a federal system then the West Lothian Question is not answered satisfactorily.williamglenn said:The big train set problem could be solved by recreating Mercia, Wessex etc, and having a balanced federation. Really this should have been thought about 100 years ago, and failing that at least at the time the Scottish Parliament was reestablished.
1: Independent nation.
2: Devolved nation, with no Westminster votes on Devolved matters.
3: End devolution, return to previous arrangements.
Each is fair and let them decide their own fate.
Agreed, but of course it only works if England / Wales / Northern Ireland, have exactly the same levels of devolution.
The problem occurs because of the differentials we have just now. You can't have westminster doing two jobs.-1 -
Scotland polls?Theuniondivvie said:
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.chestnut said:
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.Alistair said:
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?chestnut said:@BlackRook
A fair assessment.
I think we've passed peak Indy and peak SNP.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
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Thanks DC. Is the ElectionGame still running? I forgot to enter if so.DoubleCarpet said:0 -
Hi Paul - It's nice to see you putting in a rare guest appearance, unlike PtP who sadly seems gone for good.DoubleCarpet said:0 -
I have just seen the bbc report on the great news that unemployment is at a 40 year low...Not that you would know that from the report...One sentence stating that then 5 minutes of doom and gloom based upon total conjecture.
It made mr Meeks sunny disposition on brexit look optimistic.0 -
How did that get past the moderator????Theuniondivvie said:Ok lads, 'fess up, which one of you is this guy?
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonuk/status/842082651578216448
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/8420239028345241600 -
VVD 31
Others 19
Exit poll0 -
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You seemed to have made a study of it.chestnut said:
Scotland polls?Theuniondivvie said:
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.chestnut said:
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.Alistair said:
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?chestnut said:@BlackRook
A fair assessment.
I think we've passed peak Indy and peak SNP.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
What was the average of the 20+ Scotland only polls?0 -
Looking good for Rutte. Bounce from the Turkey business?0
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If that turns out to be the case it's a job well done by both of us Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Exit polls showing what the late polls were showing then, Rutte's tough stance on Turkey has boosted him though PVV still slightly up on last electionAlastairMeeks said:0 -
It'll be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is.0
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If it is the guy I remember he was predicting Scotland wouldn't vote more than 2 percent different from the UK as a whole and wouldn't be surprised if Scotland would be more Leave than the UK as a whole.chestnut said:
Scotland polls?Theuniondivvie said:
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.chestnut said:
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.Alistair said:
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?chestnut said:@BlackRook
A fair assessment.
I think we've passed peak Indy and peak SNP.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
He never took up my bet on that proposition.0 -
VVD now 1.03 most seats
Having bet and tipped at ~3.5 and topped up at ~2.5 I am cashing out for the cost of a dinner for two.0 -
After all the hype it looks as if the Netherlands will have a liberal government.0
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The Dutch Labour Party would be down from 38 seats to 9.
Worse than under Corbyn...0 -
That's a dreadful result for PvdA.0
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The Dutch Labour Party down 29 on the last election. Corbyn will have to go some to beat that.0
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the pay-for-day as they keep sayingtlg86 said:That's a dreadful result for PvdA.
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No idea.Theuniondivvie said:
You seemed to have made a study of it.chestnut said:
Scotland polls?Theuniondivvie said:
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.chestnut said:
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.Alistair said:
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?chestnut said:@BlackRook
A fair assessment.
I think we've passed peak Indy and peak SNP.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
What was the average of the 20+ Scotland only polls?
There were not 20 pollsters so it really isn't very relevant, because if one has a systemic error they will repeat it on all their polls until such time that their results are shown up to be inaccurate.
The only others who polled within a couple of months of the referendum also overstated but only up to a couple of points with their final polls.
(Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Scotland - most polls in the last couple of months had Scotland on an average of about 70% remain).0 -
Wait, you be picked two polls with the highest Remain percentage that were 2 months out from the vote?chestnut said:
Scotland polls?
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
Lols.
Here's a cherry you can pick.
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Exit Poll
VVD (People's Party) 31 seats
PVV (Party of Freedom) 19
CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
D66 (social liberal) 19
GL (Greens) 16
SP (Socialists) 14
PvdA (Labour) 9
CU (Christians) 6
PvdD (Animals) 5
50+ (Pensioners) 4
SGP (Calvinists) 3
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Wish we had Rutte's centrist/centre-right Pro EU liberal party in the UK
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+1Pulpstar said:Wish we had Rutte's centrist/centre-right Pro EU liberal party in the UK
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Incidentally, it's the Ides of March.0
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NEW THREAD
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Same time in 6 months when the dutch finally form a government?0
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Jezza rarely fails to beat low expectations.williamglenn said:The Dutch Labour Party down 29 on the last election. Corbyn will have to go some to beat that.
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Monaco are playing fast super football. - 2 up against City after 30 mins0
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are they the main centre left party over there?TheWhiteRabbit said:The Dutch Labour Party would be down from 38 seats to 9.
Worse than under Corbyn...0 -
In that case the government was working diligently behind the scenes - there were some surprisingly athletic management consultants that disappeared from Tripoli and unexpected turned up on the other side of the desert IIRCMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Perdix, that isn't confined to Budgets. Let's not forget the emotional shrieking when the Coalition Government failed to wave a magic wand to mysteriously whisk oil workers from the middle of the Libyan desert.
Edited extra bit: to clarify, I mean shrieking from the media. Family members being concerned is entirely natural, the media demanding to know why the Government hasn't bent the laws of time and space to evacuate people is daft.0 -
You can do the counting on the polls over the last two months if you like.Alistair said:
Wait, you be picked two polls with the highest Remain percentage that were 2 months out from the vote?chestnut said:
Scotland polls?
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
Lols.
Here's a cherry you can pick.
See what you come up with.
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Thanks PfP!!peter_from_putney said:
Hi Paul - It's nice to see you putting in a rare guest appearance, unlike PtP who sadly seems gone for good.DoubleCarpet said:
Well I'm always about for election nights of almost 40 countries as I'm sure you know!
Hope all is well with you and thanks for all your betting posts which are always very much worth a look.
I might even make a cameo appearance at the next PB drinks, you never know...
Andy JS - no the Game is officially suspended I'm afraid, it just got too much. Although in volcano terms it's dormant rather than extinct. And, a very belated thanks for your local authority spreadsheets on Brexit referendum night which were outstanding.
And big thanks and kudos to Mike, TSE, David and the rest of the team at PB! Great Dutch article yesterday from Alastair.0
