Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be anot
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be another polling miss where the right was understated
Wikipedia
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
What thoughts on the much higher than expected turnout that is being reported? Who does that help?
Does anyone think the outsiders in Holland are a touch of value? CDA 40, D66 120, GL 110 on Betfair.
"The Corbyn “experiment” has failed. You have to end it. Now."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/15/labour-mps-must-end-farce-jeremy-corbyns-leadership-now/
"More perhaps than any other occasion, today's PMQs was proof that Corbyn is leader of the opposition in name only."
FWIW I followed Alastair's tip but by laying the PVV rather than backing the VVD, to cover that possibility.
Sigh. It is days like this we wish @jeremycorbyn would let us have his questions. He clearly doesn't want them.
At the moment they are part of the uk in the eu
Soon they will be part of an independent uk
The they could try being totally independent
Then become part of the eu
In the name of God, Labour members wake up and deal with this!
https://youtu.be/sN1MkVfXeao
Private Eye are keen on him staying.
Just a hint Labour.
https://twitter.com/PolProfSteve/status/842004618058059777
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/03/only-24-of-voters-support-gop-health-care-plan.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/FT/status/842006002878844928
Labour really are in deep trouble, even if Corbyn went there must be a decent chance that his supporters would find someone worse to replace him.
For all the #Tories4Corbyn jokes, the government really needs an opposition worthy of the name. Time to go, Jeremy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1199980/BETRAYED-Spineless-Labour-MPs-backed-Aspergers-victims-bid-beat-extradition-desert-him.html
The problem all goes back to Brown. His ambition to be leader killed a whole generation of potential leaders within the Labour party: he plotted against them and demolished them. He left behind him an intellectual vacuum: their answer to Cameron was Miliband, ffs.
And the new generation of Labour MPs - the 2010 and 2015 intake - are to a man and woman bland and soulless. I include even relative luminaries such as Starmer in that.
Any new Labour leader needs a vision. Their problem is that any vision that will appeal to a majority of the public will repel the hard leftists who seem to vote within the party.
Philip Sim @BBCPhilipSim
Asked about policy on full EU membership Mr Russell says "we will set out our position in advance of the choice so it is an informed choice"
Philip Sim@BBCPhilipSim 24h24 hours ago
Mike Russell says there will be "absolute clarity" on ScotGov's position towards EU membership by the time of indyref2; asks for "patience".
I'm with those getting angry at all this now. I went so far as to say I didn't think it inevitable Labour would do as badly under Corbyn as predicted, I still think the brand of the party is too strong to disappear, but the MPs had the right idea to go mostly quiet and give him rope to hang himself - without them, all we have is Corbyn's own screwups and the morons on twitter turning everything into a conspiracy against the great Jez. It looks terrible.
"from the extreme South"
Is that a geographic or political adjective, Mr Llama?
1. Is this in breach of a manifesto commitment?
2. Is this going to incense our core vote?
3. Is this going to drive a backbench rebellion?
4. Is this going to make the chancellor and/or PM look stupid/mean/clueless/otherwise lame?
5. How will our opponents use this to damage us?
6. Is there an underlying vision that this builds towards?
7. How will the press and experts react?
8. Does this make tax and spend simpler and more transparent?
9. etc -
Too much hard work. It gave me a headache.
The most likely scenario, especially with A50 notification due imminently, is that the Conservatives will still be polling in the mid-40s in a months' time - despite all the brouhaha over NICs, and also because the latest unemployment figures have just come out and show another quarterly drop.
I wholeheartedly agree that it would be much better for all concerned to have a strong Opposition, but for so long as the main Opposition party is controlled by the Far Left it is even more important that it remain weak. There are worse things than any potential damage caused by embarrassing budget u-turns, or Scottish referendums, or setbacks in Brexit talks - and one of those is the notion of the Far Left getting its hands on real power in this country.
If Labour is incapable of reforming itself then it must be crushed at a General Election, and be seen to be crushed. Perhaps then, in time, something better might emerge to replace it?
My thesis (throughout almost all of Western politics) as well is that voters will start returning to mainstream parties just as soon as they take their concerns on migration/identity seriously. Otherwise, they stick with the fringes until they learn the lesson.
i.e. UKIP/Leave Labourites > May Tories, and Wilderites (VVPVPV) > Rutte (PVPVPVVV).
Merkel may just be about to learn this lesson too. The hard way.
The government tried to spin the NIC rise by using a measure previously announced by Osborne that advantaged the self-employed, but it didn't work. Firstly because that measure was announced by a previous government and chancellor, and secondly because it was very old news.
It's very important to note that the noisiest criticism of the measure came from the media and the government's own backbenchers.
Who knows, I claim no special knowledge and was just replying with some thoughts to Mr. Tyndall's question up-thread.
Yes, looks standard to me. Someone trying to read too much into it.
I imagine Barnier and co are looking, laughing and learning.
@freetochoose good effort 1/1 so far. And now we wait...
The problem is that under Corbyn there isn't a functioning Opposition.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/15/rory-stewart-hit-nics-u-turn-live-tv/
I had high hopes of Hammond, but he has disappointed. I thought for a while that he might actually confine himself to his own job - balancing the books whilst raising the cash needed by the spending departments (a pretty damn big job all on its own). Alas, he seems to have become house-trained very quickly. HMT uber alles and all that.
Maybe one day we will again have a PM who can put HMT in their proper place