Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues. All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
Sky are saying that the CPS have to prove deliberate fraud to obtain a conviction.
Also the Electoral Commission are sending a report to the Conservatives next week.
This could involve all parties in one way or another and would point to ambiguous wording in the legislation.
We will see in due course how this pans out
And presumably it must be deliberate fraud by the MP personally?
As to lose their seat the MP personally would have to be convicted and sent to prison for at least a year (though in practice they would probably resign if given any prison sentence).
With it being an election offence presumably any conviction should trigger one? Like Phil Woolas?
Where was the outcry when that commitment was broken ?
Didn't it say somewhere that they would stay in the Single Market ?
Yes it did the manifesto obviously does not mean anything.However the commitment not to increase NICs Vat Income Tax is a strong one in a close election.
So last night's London News featured a story about a mock up road warning sign with an Orthodox Jewish man in a red warning triangle. This had been put up in Stamford Hill and was another example antisemitism which has been infecting North London.
Well, turns out this was part of a series of "artistic" signs by some French artist. And that makes it okay:
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.
Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues. All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
I think he'll be out when Theresa has her next reshuffle.
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...
Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues. All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
I think he'll be out when Theresa has her next reshuffle.
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
Significant that Hammond at the dispatch box said there will be no NI tax increase in this Parliament.
Signal - no tax promises in next manifesto
Worst of all worlds then - he remains the enemy of the self-employed, whilst forfeiting the NIC revenues. All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
I think he'll be out when Theresa has her next reshuffle.
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...
'4) If a small, progressive, fair and popular tax rise can be stopped then national bankruptcy lies ahead '
Agree with this. A few Tory back benchers wagging the dog, as it were. Labour could have supported the government and created a schism between them and their own back benchers. Of course that would require a level of thinking completely absent on the Labour benches. Watching PMQs today, Corbyn looks increasingly pitiful as every week goes by. The way he was shuffling his scripted questions around trying to find the right subject was humiliating. May knew exactly how Corbyn would react to the announcement, and what should have been a tap in from 2 yards out for Labour, once again looked like an act of self immolation. Government incompetence matched by even worse incompetence from Labour leader.
Anyway, just think what a Tony Blair, or indeed a David Cameron, would have done as Loto in the face of this shambles from the Tories. They would have kicked Hammond and May to pieces.
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
Is it OK for Brexiteers that are in favour or neutral on SINDY to speak though?
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
So long as the Remainers who support Scottish independence do the same then that sounds fair.
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
As a previous remainer and a Scottish wife who was also a previous remainer but who now accept the will of the people, but also as pro Unionist we will promote Scotland in the UK at every opportunity
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
And not for the first time either.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
How many of them are there on here? There are people who have said that they would regret Scotland leaving the Union, while others are questioning whether it's a wise thing to do, but I don't think there are too many opposing Scotland having the right to decide for themselves.
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
So long as the Remainers who support Scottish independence do the same then that sounds fair.
Fine by me - I'm a Remainer in favour of the Union.
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
And not for the first time either.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.
How many Chancellors acted that way since the 24/7 news media arrived?
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
Is it OK for Brexiteers that are in favour or neutral on SINDY to speak though?
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
So long as the Remainers who support Scottish independence do the same then that sounds fair.
Fine by me - I'm a Remainer in favour of the Union.
Cool we can go through this referendum with no SNP. Who's telling Sturgeon that?
The big train set problem could be solved by recreating Mercia, Wessex etc, and having a balanced federation. Really this should have been thought about 100 years ago, and failing that at least at the time the Scottish Parliament was reestablished.
Partitioning England into convenient, roughly Scotland-sized provinces, would never fly. It's a neat idea in theory; in practice, most of them would be artificial, and nobody wants eight, nine or ten separate governments each with a separate set of policies in most domestic areas and - more to the point - separate legal systems. And nor can you get away with creating these provinces but just giving them less authority than that enjoyed by Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: if you don't have the same extent of devolution of power, or as near as makes no difference, to all the states in a federal system then the West Lothian Question is not answered satisfactorily.
And this being the case, probably Scottish independence is probably the best solution.
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
The big train set problem could be solved by recreating Mercia, Wessex etc, and having a balanced federation. Really this should have been thought about 100 years ago, and failing that at least at the time the Scottish Parliament was reestablished.
Partitioning England into convenient, roughly Scotland-sized provinces, would never fly. It's a neat idea in theory; in practice, most of them would be artificial, and nobody wants eight, nine or ten separate governments each with a separate set of policies in most domestic areas and - more to the point - separate legal systems. And nor can you get away with creating these provinces but just giving them less authority than that enjoyed by Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: if you don't have the same extent of devolution of power, or as near as makes no difference, to all the states in a federal system then the West Lothian Question is not answered satisfactorily.
And this being the case, probably Scottish independence is probably the best solution.
The Scots should have three choices.
1: Independent nation. 2: Devolved nation, with no Westminster votes on Devolved matters. 3: End devolution, return to previous arrangements.
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
Is it OK for Brexiteers that are in favour or neutral on SINDY to speak though?
Absolutely .
My view as a Brexiteer is that there is no point trying to hold onto someone who does not want to be with you. I think the UK is better off with Scotland in the Union, but am in no position to judge whether Scots are or are not. If non-economic arguments are valid for Brits re Brexit, they are just as valid for Scots re Sindy.
Personally, I think the economic arguments for the UK leaving the EU are stronger than for Scotland leaving the UK (regardless of whether it joins the EU or EFTA-EEA), but that is irrelevant to Scots' making their decisions.
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
Yes but will we have a clear idea of the future government before Christmas 2017?
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
As a previous remainer and a Scottish wife who was also a previous remainer but who now accept the will of the people, but also as pro Unionist we will promote Scotland in the UK at every opportunity
Yes but that's like the PM's position so your leaver scum now!
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
Yes but will we have a clear idea of the future government before Christmas 2017?
I'm reliably told by Brexiteers that the EU will form the government.
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
Yes but will we have a clear idea of the future government before Christmas 2017?
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
And not for the first time either.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.
How many Chancellors acted that way since the 24/7 news media arrived?
No question that the press today likes to create mass hysteria after a budget statement. Anything to sell newspapers in these desperate time for the press. The logic of any policy does not count - it's how can you stir up the readers.
If there's a big swing back to Rutte it will be very good news for all of us. I've no doubt that Erdogan was deliberately trying to stir up trouble before the election to give the extremists a boost and it seems to have backfired. Our enemies need to think twice before trying to use our democracy against us.
Mr. Perdix, that isn't confined to Budgets. Let's not forget the emotional shrieking when the Coalition Government failed to wave a magic wand to mysteriously whisk oil workers from the middle of the Libyan desert.
Edited extra bit: to clarify, I mean shrieking from the media. Family members being concerned is entirely natural, the media demanding to know why the Government hasn't bent the laws of time and space to evacuate people is daft.
A classic document says, only when we do our tasks are we prepared. When we are prepared, there is no trouble.
There seems to have been ample time spent sharpening witticisms, less spent on the actual substance of the Budget.
And not for the first time either.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.
How many Chancellors acted that way since the 24/7 news media arrived?
No question that the press today likes to create mass hysteria after a budget statement. Anything to sell newspapers in these desperate time for the press. The logic of any policy does not count - it's how can you stir up the readers.
1st results expected 8.45 onwards, Rozendaal, Renswoude, Schiermonnikoog may be some of the early ones. 1st two are safe VVD and Schier'koog is VVD v PvdA.
1st results expected 8.45 onwards, Rozendaal, Renswoude, Schiermonnikoog may be some of the early ones. 1st two are safe VVD and Schier'koog is VVD v PvdA.
The big train set problem could be solved by recreating Mercia, Wessex etc, and having a balanced federation. Really this should have been thought about 100 years ago, and failing that at least at the time the Scottish Parliament was reestablished.
Partitioning England into convenient, roughly Scotland-sized provinces, would never fly. It's a neat idea in theory; in practice, most of them would be artificial, and nobody wants eight, nine or ten separate governments each with a separate set of policies in most domestic areas and - more to the point - separate legal systems. And nor can you get away with creating these provinces but just giving them less authority than that enjoyed by Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: if you don't have the same extent of devolution of power, or as near as makes no difference, to all the states in a federal system then the West Lothian Question is not answered satisfactorily.
And this being the case, probably Scottish independence is probably the best solution.
The Scots should have three choices.
1: Independent nation. 2: Devolved nation, with no Westminster votes on Devolved matters. 3: End devolution, return to previous arrangements.
Each is fair and let them decide their own fate.
Agreed, but of course it only works if England / Wales / Northern Ireland, have exactly the same levels of devolution.
The problem occurs because of the differentials we have just now. You can't have westminster doing two jobs.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.
I have just seen the bbc report on the great news that unemployment is at a 40 year low...Not that you would know that from the report...One sentence stating that then 5 minutes of doom and gloom based upon total conjecture.
It made mr Meeks sunny disposition on brexit look optimistic.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
If it is the guy I remember he was predicting Scotland wouldn't vote more than 2 percent different from the UK as a whole and wouldn't be surprised if Scotland would be more Leave than the UK as a whole.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
Wait, is that a subsample of a subsample?
It's based on a 370 sample of SNP voters in a Scotland poll.
As I said earlier, the first real signs of movement in September 2014 came from the subsamples.
Similar observations questioning the validity were made then by Scot Lab people on here.
Worth keeping an eye to see if a pattern starts to develop.
* Panelbase, Ipsos, BMG and Survation have a range of 16% to 24% for SNP Unionists on this - but most polling pre-dates the call to referendum.
Yougov uses 2015 Vote, the others use Holyrood 2016.
I recall there was a bloke on here who went through all the Scottish subsamples from UK Brexit polls in an effort to prove that Scotland was much closer to the UK Eurosceptic mean than Scotland specific polls suggested. He must have felt a proper nana come 24/06/16.
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
You seemed to have made a study of it. What was the average of the 20+ Scotland only polls?
No idea.
There were not 20 pollsters so it really isn't very relevant, because if one has a systemic error they will repeat it on all their polls until such time that their results are shown up to be inaccurate.
The only others who polled within a couple of months of the referendum also overstated but only up to a couple of points with their final polls.
It'll be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is.
The Spanish ones were awful, completely underestimated the PP share (by about four percentage points). Of course, the PP is much more like the CDA or VVD than the PVV.
Mr. Perdix, that isn't confined to Budgets. Let's not forget the emotional shrieking when the Coalition Government failed to wave a magic wand to mysteriously whisk oil workers from the middle of the Libyan desert.
Edited extra bit: to clarify, I mean shrieking from the media. Family members being concerned is entirely natural, the media demanding to know why the Government hasn't bent the laws of time and space to evacuate people is daft.
In that case the government was working diligently behind the scenes - there were some surprisingly athletic management consultants that disappeared from Tripoli and unexpected turned up on the other side of the desert IIRC
Hi Paul - It's nice to see you putting in a rare guest appearance, unlike PtP who sadly seems gone for good.
Thanks PfP!!
Well I'm always about for election nights of almost 40 countries as I'm sure you know!
Hope all is well with you and thanks for all your betting posts which are always very much worth a look.
I might even make a cameo appearance at the next PB drinks, you never know...
Andy JS - no the Game is officially suspended I'm afraid, it just got too much. Although in volcano terms it's dormant rather than extinct. And, a very belated thanks for your local authority spreadsheets on Brexit referendum night which were outstanding.
And big thanks and kudos to Mike, TSE, David and the rest of the team at PB! Great Dutch article yesterday from Alastair.
Comments
All of which means he's probably now in the last chance saloon.
Well, turns out this was part of a series of "artistic" signs by some French artist. And that makes it okay:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-39275581
Will be interesting to see who becomes the next COE...
Would it be reasonable to suggest the Brexiteers opposed to Scottish independence take a self imposed vow of silence on the issue (on the basis that to do otherwise smells of hypocrisy) ?
Agree with this. A few Tory back benchers wagging the dog, as it were. Labour could have supported the government and created a schism between them and their own back benchers. Of course that would require a level of thinking completely absent on the Labour benches. Watching PMQs today, Corbyn looks increasingly pitiful as every week goes by. The way he was shuffling his scripted questions around trying to find the right subject was humiliating. May knew exactly how Corbyn would react to the announcement, and what should have been a tap in from 2 yards out for Labour, once again looked like an act of self immolation. Government incompetence matched by even worse incompetence from Labour leader.
Anyway, just think what a Tony Blair, or indeed a David Cameron, would have done as Loto in the face of this shambles from the Tories. They would have kicked Hammond and May to pieces.
Which is why so many Budgets in recent years have run into so many difficulties.
Budgets are economic statements but are being treated as political statements.
There was a time when the Chancellor would rarely be seen between New Year and Budget Day as the details were prepared minutely - that clearly isn't the case now.
Instead we get Chancellors with more arrogance than ability thinking they can wing it.
Polls close at 9pm local time (8pm GMT)
We expect the first exit poll around 8.o5pm GMT and then a more accurate exit poll roughly 30 mins later at 8.30pm GMT
Results will start to come in from some of the small islands quite quickly, but the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam won’t declare until after 11pm GMT
We should have a clearer idea of where things are by midnight GMT
1: Independent nation.
2: Devolved nation, with no Westminster votes on Devolved matters.
3: End devolution, return to previous arrangements.
Each is fair and let them decide their own fate.
Personally, I think the economic arguments for the UK leaving the EU are stronger than for Scotland leaving the UK (regardless of whether it joins the EU or EFTA-EEA), but that is irrelevant to Scots' making their decisions.
Edit: updated graph here
http://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
@SimonStClare @peter_from_putney
Edited extra bit: to clarify, I mean shrieking from the media. Family members being concerned is entirely natural, the media demanding to know why the Government hasn't bent the laws of time and space to evacuate people is daft.
http://nos.nl/livestream/npo-politiek
http://nos.nl/livestream/npo-nieuws
Polls close 8pm UK time.
1st results expected 8.45 onwards, Rozendaal, Renswoude, Schiermonnikoog may be some of the early ones. 1st two are safe VVD and Schier'koog is VVD v PvdA.
Below site is searchable 2012 district results:
http://www.verkiezingskaart.nl/#
Enjoy!!
DC
https://twitter.com/amberinzaman/status/842056190192427008
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonuk/status/842082651578216448
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/842023902834524160
https://lfverkiezingen.appspot.com/nos/widget/main.html
Agreed, but of course it only works if England / Wales / Northern Ireland, have exactly the same levels of devolution.
The problem occurs because of the differentials we have just now. You can't have westminster doing two jobs.
Survation Scotland 75% Remain
TNS Scotland 69% Remain
Real Remain 62%
Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.
Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.
It made mr Meeks sunny disposition on brexit look optimistic.
Others 19
Exit poll
What was the average of the 20+ Scotland only polls?
He never took up my bet on that proposition.
Having bet and tipped at ~3.5 and topped up at ~2.5 I am cashing out for the cost of a dinner for two.
Worse than under Corbyn...
There were not 20 pollsters so it really isn't very relevant, because if one has a systemic error they will repeat it on all their polls until such time that their results are shown up to be inaccurate.
The only others who polled within a couple of months of the referendum also overstated but only up to a couple of points with their final polls.
(Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Scotland - most polls in the last couple of months had Scotland on an average of about 70% remain).
Lols.
Here's a cherry you can pick.
VVD (People's Party) 31 seats
PVV (Party of Freedom) 19
CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
D66 (social liberal) 19
GL (Greens) 16
SP (Socialists) 14
PvdA (Labour) 9
CU (Christians) 6
PvdD (Animals) 5
50+ (Pensioners) 4
SGP (Calvinists) 3
NEW THREAD
See what you come up with.
Well I'm always about for election nights of almost 40 countries as I'm sure you know!
Hope all is well with you and thanks for all your betting posts which are always very much worth a look.
I might even make a cameo appearance at the next PB drinks, you never know...
Andy JS - no the Game is officially suspended I'm afraid, it just got too much. Although in volcano terms it's dormant rather than extinct. And, a very belated thanks for your local authority spreadsheets on Brexit referendum night which were outstanding.
And big thanks and kudos to Mike, TSE, David and the rest of the team at PB! Great Dutch article yesterday from Alastair.