politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be anot
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And Mrs M's loony backbenchers as well.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs Sturgeon too.Cyclefree said:Pathetic behavior over the NiC increase. The government has marshmallows for balls.
I imagine Barnier and co are looking, laughing and learning.
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@Peston: "It is that moment in seal culling when you look away": senior Tory on Corbyn at #PMQs0
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Which is of course where the real danger to our EU negotiations will come from.JosiasJessop said:
And an outcry from loads of backbench Conservatives as well.TOPPING said:
This was on account of popular, ie media outcry. I doubt there will be the same furore over some arcane piece of EU legislation one way or the other and if there is, I doubt there will be an audience for it.Cyclefree said:Pathetic behavior over the NiC increase. The government has marshmallows for balls.
I imagine Barnier and co are looking, laughing and learning.0 -
It doesn't matter. She's shown herself to be ill-prepared and weak, not good qualities to exhibit just before you start tough negotiations.TOPPING said:
This was on account of popular, ie media outcry. I doubt there will be the same furore over some arcane piece of EU legislation one way or the other and if there is, I doubt there will be an audience for it.Cyclefree said:Pathetic behavior over the NiC increase. The government has marshmallows for balls.
I imagine Barnier and co are looking, laughing and learning.
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I think that's right. I think, also, that people like the PVV policies, but don't feel that Geert is temperamentally suited to run the Netherlands.Casino_Royale said:FWIW my sense is that Wilders will underperform because he's simply taken his rhetoric and policy too far.
My thesis (throughout almost all of Western politics) as well is that voters will start returning to mainstream parties just as soon as they take their concerns on migration/identity seriously. Otherwise, they stick with the fringes until they learn the lesson.
i.e. UKIP/Leave Labourites > May Tories, and Wilderites (VVPVPV) > Rutte (PVPVPVVV).
Merkel may just be about to learn this lesson too. The hard way.0 -
There's a relief! Last YouGov's Scottish Labour Surge KLAXON has been cancelled:
Con: 31
Lab: 18
SNP: 370 -
Funny but not real - they're listening, as you can see from Rudd. Also obvious when you see the video.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Well, that's just it. I don't think they did. I think they just cocked up.kle4 said:
Except sometimes it may be necessary to divert from the manifesto in response to events. Was it necessary here? They decided it was...Tissue_Price said:Manifesto, Manifesto, Manifesto. That's the be-all and end-all here.
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Labour should have supported it unequivocally, and played on splits on the Conservative benches on the measure. LotO should have reassured the PM and Chancellor that they'd have no problem getting the change through with Opposition support. But it's Corbyn, who wouldn't know how to lead the proverbial social gathering in the ale house.tlg86 said:
Even if Labour was led by someone sensible such as Umuna, do Labour have the discipline to support the government with a view to taking advantage of a U-turn when it arrives? Personally, I don't think so.Sandpit said:
Absolutely that's the way they should have played it, and today could have challenged the govt as to what spending would be cut to pay for the 'tax cut', social care?RobC said:
A slightly smarter opposition would have supported the C4 NI move. It was a progressive centrist measure that looked to begin to address the shortfall in public finances in the light of our new economy. Ok the amount raised was small but the principle was correct. If they had done so they could have roasted the overrated Hammond today.JosiasJessop said:
That would be a good start, but is not enough. I hate to say this, but spin is a factor. For each measure, look at the disadvantages (and there will always be people disadvantaged in budgets). Create lines to counter any criticisms, and for big measures, counter-proposals ("we're taking from the self-employed with measure a, but measure g will see them better off by £200 a year").Patrick said:Could I humbly suggest that Chancellors are given a clusterfuck-control-checklist to go through before every budget:
1. Is this in breach of a manifesto commitment?
2. Is this going to incense our core vote?
3. Is this going to drive a backbench rebellion?
4. Is this going to make the chancellor and/or PM look stupid/mean/clueless/otherwise lame?
5. How will our opponents use this to damage us?
6. Is there an underlying vision that this builds towards?
7. How will the press and experts react?
8. Does this make tax and spend simpler and more transparent?
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The government tried to spin the NIC rise by using a measure previously announced by Osborne that advantaged the self-employed, but it didn't work. Firstly because that measure was announced by a previous government and chancellor, and secondly because it was very old news.
It's very important to note that the noisiest criticism of the measure came from the media and the government's own backbenchers.
The problem is that under Corbyn there isn't a functioning Opposition.0 -
*PB grammar trigger warning*SquareRoot said:just heard Corbyn at PMQ's .. is he useless or is he useless.
He's not not useless.0 -
Arf Arf ....TheScreamingEagles said:@Peston: "It is that moment in seal culling when you look away": senior Tory on Corbyn at #PMQs
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Very disturbing
‘FUCK LAWYERS!’:
Hill Dickinson’s office daubed with rude graffiti
http://www.legalcheek.com/2017/03/fck-lawyers-hill-dickinsons-office-daubed-with-rude-graffiti/0 -
Join the club.TheScreamingEagles said:@Peston: "It is that moment in seal culling when you look away": senior Tory on Corbyn at #PMQs
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But then neither did Miliband and Balls. They should have supported Osborne's target of eradicating the deficit by 2015 and put pressure on them to find the money through tax rises. And then when Osborne failed to deliver, hammered him at the election.Sandpit said:
Labour should have supported it unequivocally, and played on splits on the Conservative benches on the measure. LotO should have reassured the PM and Chancellor that they'd have no problem getting the change through with Opposition support. But it's Corbyn, who wouldn't know how to lead the proverbial social gathering in the ale house.tlg86 said:
Even if Labour was led by someone sensible such as Umuna, do Labour have the discipline to support the government with a view to taking advantage of a U-turn when it arrives? Personally, I don't think so.Sandpit said:
Absolutely that's the way they should have played it, and today could have challenged the govt as to what spending would be cut to pay for the 'tax cut', social care?RobC said:A slightly smarter opposition would have supported the C4 NI move. It was a progressive centrist measure that looked to begin to address the shortfall in public finances in the light of our new economy. Ok the amount raised was small but the principle was correct. If they had done so they could have roasted the overrated Hammond today.
The problem is that under Corbyn there isn't a functioning Opposition.0 -
Mr Price, your response to my question on the previous thread makes sense. They can't have had the votes...Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's just it. I don't think they did. I think they just cocked up.kle4 said:
Except sometimes it may be necessary to divert from the manifesto in response to events. Was it necessary here? They decided it was...Tissue_Price said:Manifesto, Manifesto, Manifesto. That's the be-all and end-all here.
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To correct my comment earlier, it seems the c. £2bn from Class IV was cumulative. Bloody annoying that people can't be consistent about using annual figures. I blame Gordon Brown.
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I haven't seen this mentioned (but that might be due to me not spending much time on the site today), but David Davis said it is likely they will be able to avoid a hard border with Ireland and to maintain the Common Travel Area post-Brexit.0
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German regulators told one bank talking to them about getting a German banking licence that while they were happy to have the jobs and tax, all the balance sheet risk needed to be booked in London. They didn't want it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Financial stability is going to be a nightmare for both the EU and the UK if something sensible isn't agreed.
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Wasn’t watching but know the feeling, David Attenborough has a lot to answer for.Black_Rook said:0 -
The tables from the latest YouGov are out. Basically suggests that the unusually low Ukip figure (9%) may well be down to greater migration of voters to the Tories - up from a fifth of the 2015 Ukip more typical of the series to a third in this latest poll. This seems plausible, but the sub-sample of 2015 Ukip voters is small so it might turn out to be noise. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, especially once A50 happens.
In other totally unsurprising news, May leads Corbyn 48:14 on the best PM question, and 67:6 amongst the over 65s, and there's no meaningful movement on the Brexit right or wrong question for the umpteenth month in a row.
They also asked various questions about Sindy Mk 2, including to English and Welsh respondents only. When asking if English and Welsh respondents supported or opposed Scottish independence, they found that the total proportion opposed had declined from two-thirds in September 2014 to a half now.0 -
Relax, they're only paraphrasing Dick the Butcher.TheScreamingEagles said:Very disturbing
‘FUCK LAWYERS!’:
Hill Dickinson’s office daubed with rude graffiti
http://www.legalcheek.com/2017/03/fck-lawyers-hill-dickinsons-office-daubed-with-rude-graffiti/0 -
Not a huge surprise. Peak Scottish whingemongering is pretty corrosive...Black_Rook said:The tables from the latest YouGov are out. Basically suggests that the unusually low Ukip figure (9%) may well be down to greater migration of voters to the Tories - up from a fifth of the 2015 Ukip more typical of the series to a third in this latest poll. This seems plausible, but the sub-sample of 2015 Ukip voters is small so it might turn out to be noise. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, especially once A50 happens.
In other totally unsurprising news, May leads Corbyn 48:14 on the best PM question, and 67:6 amongst the over 65s, and there's no meaningful movement on the Brexit right or wrong question for the umpteenth month in a row.
They also asked various questions about Sindy Mk 2, including to English and Welsh respondents only. When asking if English and Welsh respondents supported or opposed Scottish independence, they found that the total proportion opposed had declined from two-thirds in September 2014 to a half now.0 -
Incidentally I do like the fact I said the PVV should be 2/1 against yesterday and on the chart above they are now 34%!0
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As it was for much of 2010-2015. Sigh.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Well exactly, all this fuss about clearing, if we "win" and it stays then the BoE is on the hook for n number of EU institutions. Some control...Cyclefree said:
German regulators told one bank talking to them about getting a German banking licence that while they were happy to have the jobs and tax, all the balance sheet risk needed to be booked in London. They didn't want it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Financial stability is going to be a nightmare for both the EU and the UK if something sensible isn't agreed.0 -
Gordon Darrochrcs1000 said:
@GordonDarroch
Gordon Darroch Retweeted Margriet Oostveen
Turnout in Amsterdam nearly 26% by lunch - good news for D66, GroenLinks and possibly Labour.0 -
So they're incompetent and hardly deserving of much praise, even if they caught the cock up. At least defending a necessary change that involved a breach of a promise requires taking a tough decision.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that's just it. I don't think they did. I think they just cocked up.kle4 said:
Except sometimes it may be necessary to divert from the manifesto in response to events. Was it necessary here? They decided it was...Tissue_Price said:Manifesto, Manifesto, Manifesto. That's the be-all and end-all here.
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???SimonStClare said:
Wasn’t watching but know the feeling, David Attenborough has a lot to answer for.Black_Rook said:
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Isn't that a trap the Dems got themselves into with early vote counts - equating increases of early voters with an increase in actual voters, rather than much shifting of timing of voting.logical_song said:
Gordon Darrochrcs1000 said:
@GordonDarroch
Gordon Darroch Retweeted Margriet Oostveen
Turnout in Amsterdam nearly 26% by lunch - good news for D66, GroenLinks and possibly Labour.0 -
A hate crime.....TheScreamingEagles said:Very disturbing
‘FUCK LAWYERS!’:
Hill Dickinson’s office daubed with rude graffiti
http://www.legalcheek.com/2017/03/fck-lawyers-hill-dickinsons-office-daubed-with-rude-graffiti/0 -
That suggests 80% turnout right?rcs1000 said:0 -
After the Presidential election I watched the Young Turks channel coverage on YouTube.MTimT said:
Isn't that a trap the Dems got themselves into with early vote counts - equating increases of early voters with an increase in actual voters, rather than much shifting of timing of voting.logical_song said:
Gordon Darrochrcs1000 said:
@GordonDarroch
Gordon Darroch Retweeted Margriet Oostveen
Turnout in Amsterdam nearly 26% by lunch - good news for D66, GroenLinks and possibly Labour.
They were all smug at the beginning and got steadily more depressed as the results came in.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Sounds like PB was ahead of the curve.0 -
Nobody knows.MTimT said:
Isn't that a trap the Dems got themselves into with early vote counts - equating increases of early voters with an increase in actual voters, rather than much shifting of timing of voting.logical_song said:
Gordon Darrochrcs1000 said:
@GordonDarroch
Gordon Darroch Retweeted Margriet Oostveen
Turnout in Amsterdam nearly 26% by lunch - good news for D66, GroenLinks and possibly Labour.
Personal view: there's been a pretty serious late PVV-VVD swing, caused by (a) the VVD taking immigation/lack of integration seriously; (b) people liking PVV policies, but not trusting Geert, and - tying into b - (c) Geert Wilders going totally OTT in the last three weeks, calling Moroccans scum, proposing the closing of all Mosques, suggesting that the police could raid private citizens homes to confiscate Quarans, and suggesting closing the Turkish embassy and expelling all their diplomats.0 -
Shocked by this. SHOCKED!
REUTERS BREAKING NEWS: Russian spies among those charged by U.S. in Yahoo hack0 -
Mr. Pubgoer, I saw little bits and pieces of that. The 'host' seemed to go slightly mental (I believe he 'declared war' on the Democratic Party after it became apparent Trump was going to win).0
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I must confess to a touch of schadenfreude at the time.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pubgoer, I saw little bits and pieces of that. The 'host' seemed to go slightly mental (I believe he 'declared war' on the Democratic Party after it became apparent Trump was going to win).
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And there'll be oceans of it for the Union to drown in over the next couple of years. But that was always the Scots Nats' back-up plan. Plan A: convince your own people that independence is a good idea. If that fails, plan B: jump up and down and scream about how hard done by you are until the rest of the country either gives up on Scotland, or actively wills it gone.Mortimer said:
Not a huge surprise. Peak Scottish whingemongering is pretty corrosive...Black_Rook said:The tables from the latest YouGov are out. Basically suggests that the unusually low Ukip figure (9%) may well be down to greater migration of voters to the Tories - up from a fifth of the 2015 Ukip more typical of the series to a third in this latest poll. This seems plausible, but the sub-sample of 2015 Ukip voters is small so it might turn out to be noise. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, especially once A50 happens.
In other totally unsurprising news, May leads Corbyn 48:14 on the best PM question, and 67:6 amongst the over 65s, and there's no meaningful movement on the Brexit right or wrong question for the umpteenth month in a row.
They also asked various questions about Sindy Mk 2, including to English and Welsh respondents only. When asking if English and Welsh respondents supported or opposed Scottish independence, they found that the total proportion opposed had declined from two-thirds in September 2014 to a half now.0 -
There's some excellent footage on YouTube showing the Young Turds throwing a strop on election night.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pubgoer, I saw little bits and pieces of that. The 'host' seemed to go slightly mental (I believe he 'declared war' on the Democratic Party after it became apparent Trump was going to win).
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Black_Rook said:
And there'll be oceans of it for the Union to drown in over the next couple of years. But that was always the Scots Nats' back-up plan. Plan A: convince your own people that independence is a good idea. If that fails, plan B: jump up and down and scream about how hard done by you are until the rest of the country either gives up on Scotland, or actively wills it gone.Mortimer said:
Not a huge surprise. Peak Scottish whingemongering is pretty corrosive...Black_Rook said:The tables from the latest YouGov are out. Basically suggests that the unusually low Ukip figure (9%) may well be down to greater migration of voters to the Tories - up from a fifth of the 2015 Ukip more typical of the series to a third in this latest poll. This seems plausible, but the sub-sample of 2015 Ukip voters is small so it might turn out to be noise. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, especially once A50 happens.
In other totally unsurprising news, May leads Corbyn 48:14 on the best PM question, and 67:6 amongst the over 65s, and there's no meaningful movement on the Brexit right or wrong question for the umpteenth month in a row.
They also asked various questions about Sindy Mk 2, including to English and Welsh respondents only. When asking if English and Welsh respondents supported or opposed Scottish independence, they found that the total proportion opposed had declined from two-thirds in September 2014 to a half now.
Maybe Sturgeon can use a pithy line for that. How about: "Make England grate again".
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Re the Netherlands: is improved voting due to PVV supporters who wouldn't normally vote coming out? Or is due to people worried about the PVV coming out? Or is a bit of both?0
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If Corbyn captures all those 38% of Don't knows, he has a 4% lead! Yay! /MomentumModeBannedInParis said:
As it was for much of 2010-2015. Sigh.CarlottaVance said:
If May captures all those Don't knows, she has a 72% lead. Hmmm. /CCHQMode
If they break pro rata, then it is a 56% lead for May.0 -
My wild guess is right will perform better. They usually do. What time do we know result...or are they namby pambies and count tomorrow? Say it ain't true. We all know there is something great about being tired and sleepy after a election all nighter.0
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Brexit and Trump suggest the former.... But this is the Netherlands. Surely, the Dutch aren't all tattooed thickoes in month-old undies?rcs1000 said:Re the Netherlands: is improved voting due to PVV supporters who wouldn't normally vote coming out? Or is due to people worried about the PVV coming out? Or is a bit of both?
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Counting tonight. First results at 10pm Dutch time. Final results tomorrow, as they are hand counting.Dixie said:My wild guess is right will perform better. They usually do. What time do we know result...or are they namby pambies and count tomorrow? Say it ain't true. We all know there is something great about being tired and sleepy after a election all nighter.
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I've been thinking about that. For what it's worth - very little - I think it's likely to be more helpful in a proportional system for the PVV (at least in terms of who finishes first) than for its opponents. There isn't the same need to vote for the nearest challenger as there is in a two horse race, so the anti vote will be split multiple ways.rcs1000 said:Re the Netherlands: is improved voting due to PVV supporters who wouldn't normally vote coming out? Or is due to people worried about the PVV coming out? Or is a bit of both?
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Works both ways. Regulators round the world have worked hard to try and iron out systemic shocks to the system: information sharing and equivalent / similar rules are part of that. Lose those and not only are regulators a bit more blind than they were before but they are also still on the hook if there's a problem affecting their country. Couple that with the proposed changes in the US and there are real concerns that we could - if no deal is done - end up unpicking or losing much of the good work done post the 07-08 financial crisis.TOPPING said:
Well exactly, all this fuss about clearing, if we "win" and it stays then the BoE is on the hook for n number of EU institutions. Some control...Cyclefree said:
German regulators told one bank talking to them about getting a German banking licence that while they were happy to have the jobs and tax, all the balance sheet risk needed to be booked in London. They didn't want it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Financial stability is going to be a nightmare for both the EU and the UK if something sensible isn't agreed.
The anecdote above shows that while some European countries want the jobs and tax revenues they don't want the risks that come with financial sectors.
It's almost as if they are cherry picking.......
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When we say "The Right", are we talking about:Dixie said:My wild guess is right will perform better. They usually do. What time do we know result...or are they namby pambies and count tomorrow? Say it ain't true. We all know there is something great about being tired and sleepy after a election all nighter.
VVD: Left Wing Cameroons
CDA: Right Wing Cameroons
CU: DUP
PVV: UKIP
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Check the same question for 2010-2015 for a guide as to how the cookie crumbles.MarqueeMark said:
If Corbyn captures all those 38% of Don't knows, he has a 4% lead! Yay! /MomentumModeBannedInParis said:
As it was for much of 2010-2015. Sigh.CarlottaVance said:
If May captures all those Don't knows, she has a 72% lead. Hmmm. /CCHQMode
If they break pro rata, then it is a 56% lead for May.0 -
"I took Alistair Meeks’ post yesterday seriously and have a small wager that the PVV won’t do it."
Me too Mike ..... Alastair's not often wrong on such bets and the then available odds of 11/8 against the VVD have since halved. Was this yet another example of PB.com's influence in the betting markets?0 -
Mr. F/Mr. Pubgoer, I found it slightly hysterical and disturbing, to be honest.0
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Off-topic: am I right that the past tense of "lay" when used to mean "bet against" is spelled "layed" rather than "laid"? The OED is no help. "I laid Fillon" doesn't look right.0
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Afternoon all
Well, DOUVAN gets stuffed which just goes to show odds on chances aren't always certainties. Not that I picked the right one either though if he'd jumped the second last properly, I think GOD'S OWN would have been in the first three.
You'll notice I don't come on here boasting about all my wins, how green my book is and how I beat the price/market/spread.
I'm a punter - I often get it wrong and lose money. Never mind, as a friend of mine once said "Stodge, old son, it's only leant".0 -
Finally, some actual Russians
SkyNews
Russian spies among those expected to be charged in at least one of a series of hacking attacks on #Yahoo https://t.co/oFLN075GYT0 -
I use laid because layed looks barbaric. But I might not be your best guide on this matter: I use bettors with extreme reluctance.Cyan said:Off-topic: am I right that the past tense of "lay" when used to mean "bet against" is spelled "layed" rather than "laid"? The OED is no help. "I laid Fillon" doesn't look right.
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Agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
I've been thinking about that. For what it's worth - very little - I think it's likely to be more helpful in a proportional system for the PVV (at least in terms of who finishes first) than for its opponents. There isn't the same need to vote for the nearest challenger as there is in a two horse race, so the anti vote will be split multiple ways.rcs1000 said:Re the Netherlands: is improved voting due to PVV supporters who wouldn't normally vote coming out? Or is due to people worried about the PVV coming out? Or is a bit of both?
I'm taking the opposite position to you and backing PVV. They now represent value IMO.
Our short detente over mutual pineapple on pizza appreciation is over... 0 -
What time are the exit polls released?0
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That's why I use punters or gamblers instead.AlastairMeeks said:
I use laid because layed looks barbaric. But I might not be your best guide on this matter: I use bettors with extreme reluctance.Cyan said:Off-topic: am I right that the past tense of "lay" when used to mean "bet against" is spelled "layed" rather than "laid"? The OED is no help. "I laid Fillon" doesn't look right.
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I think so too, but to cover the possibility of a tie I've bet against [*] VVD. I don't buy the argument that the diplomatic spat has harmed the PVV: I think it's helped them. But soon we'll find out.Mortimer said:
I'm taking the opposite position to you and backing PVV. They now represent value IMO.
(*) Use of past tense of "lay" in this meaning is on hold.
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And me (but not a sum likely to move the market on it own)peter_from_putney said:"I took Alistair Meeks’ post yesterday seriously and have a small wager that the PVV won’t do it."
Me too Mike ..... Alastair's not often wrong on such bets and the then available odds of 11/8 against the VVD have since halved. Was this yet another example of PB.com's influence in the betting markets?0 -
Alacrity rather I think.AlastairMeeks said:
I use laid because layed looks barbaric. But I might not be your best guide on this matter: I use bettors with extreme reluctance.Cyan said:Off-topic: am I right that the past tense of "lay" when used to mean "bet against" is spelled "layed" rather than "laid"? The OED is no help. "I laid Fillon" doesn't look right.
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It was all very amusingSean_F said:
There's some excellent footage on YouTube showing the Young Turds throwing a strop on election night.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pubgoer, I saw little bits and pieces of that. The 'host' seemed to go slightly mental (I believe he 'declared war' on the Democratic Party after it became apparent Trump was going to win).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4-5CD5_Z74
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To be fair I spent most of the weekend watching a number of the different network.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F/Mr. Pubgoer, I found it slightly hysterical and disturbing, to be honest.
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I struggle also with precisely the same words, despite having used them countless times. Plus i can never remember whether it's incumbant or incumbent. I'm also often temped to spell led, which to me looks wrong, as lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I use punters or gamblers instead.AlastairMeeks said:
I use laid because layed looks barbaric. But I might not be your best guide on this matter: I use bettors with extreme reluctance.Cyan said:Off-topic: am I right that the past tense of "lay" when used to mean "bet against" is spelled "layed" rather than "laid"? The OED is no help. "I laid Fillon" doesn't look right.
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The Yougov subsamples were the place the SNP surge started to show in 2014.CarlottaVance said:There's a relief! Last YouGov's Scottish Labour Surge KLAXON has been cancelled:
Con: 31
Lab: 18
SNP: 37
Roughly a quarter of SNP voters are unionists based on several pollsters findings. If they do not like the idea of another referendum the SNP will start to drift downwards.
The number in both subsamples and full polls is worth keeping an eye on.0 -
Smithson (jr) Dutch Forecast
VVD 27
You heard it here first.
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 18
GL 170 -
Avery-tastic. Looks sensible to me.rcs1000 said:Smithson (jr) Dutch Forecast
VVD 27
You heard it here first.
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 18
GL 170 -
Old grammatical joke:peter_from_putney said:
I struggle also with precisely the same words, despite having used them countless times. Plus i can never remember whether it's incumbant or incumbent. I'm also often temped to spell led, which to me looks wrong, as lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I use punters or gamblers instead.AlastairMeeks said:
I use laid because layed looks barbaric. But I might not be your best guide on this matter: I use bettors with extreme reluctance.Cyan said:Off-topic: am I right that the past tense of "lay" when used to mean "bet against" is spelled "layed" rather than "laid"? The OED is no help. "I laid Fillon" doesn't look right.
Pupil says to his English teacher, 'Excuse me, sir. What does the verb "to misle" mean?'
Teacher: 'I've never heard of such a verb. In what context did you encounter it?'
Pupil: 'The Leader of the Opposition just said the Prime Minister misled the public.'0 -
That implies an expectation of Canada ++.rcs1000 said:I haven't seen this mentioned (but that might be due to me not spending much time on the site today), but David Davis said it is likely they will be able to avoid a hard border with Ireland and to maintain the Common Travel Area post-Brexit.
The CTA is a bilateral issue for the UK and Ireland, isn't it?0 -
LOL. This cannot be said publicly, of course, but it's doubtless a large part of what they're setting out to achieve.MarkHopkins said:Maybe Sturgeon can use a pithy line for that. How about: "Make England grate again".
I was briefly worried when the second referendum campaign kicked off in earnest that this might be the start of an eternal neverendum carousel: Scotland votes to stay in UK, Scotland elects Nationalist Parliament, Nationalist Parliament demands yet another referendum, repeat until dead. But I'm feeling somewhat more optimistic now. Just so long as May refuses to let the SNP have another referendum until after we've dealt with Brexit - one constitutional question at a time, please - then after that it's not such a big problem as it's made out. I see it working one of three ways:
1. Available evidence post-Brexit suggests most Scots still don't want a referendum. In that case, May tells Sturgeon to go and secure another pro-independence majority at Holyrood in 2021. Can kicked down road, and SNP/Green success by no means certain.
2. Available evidence suggests most Scots want a referendum. In that case, make limited interventions and leave Ruth Davidson to do the hard graft. Then:
(a) If she wins, the Scots Tories have saved the Union, they cement their position as the dominant anti-SNP force, Scottish Conservative MPs begin to return to Westminster in strength, Sturgeon is finished and the Nationalist movement is badly set back. Its strength would likely be permanently reduced, a la Quebec, by inability to deliver. Even if it wasn't, the Scottish populace would be exhausted and the UK Government in an excellent position to refuse a third referendum for at least the next twenty years.
(b) If she loses, the Tory Commons majority increases to about 80 even before a GE against what's left of Labour, and the bonds of the Union will have been sufficiently weakened by nigh-on a quarter of a century of asymmetric devolution, bitter arguments, and lingering resentments over money that the electoral damage wrought upon the Conservatives South of the Border would be likely to prove limited. If the Government were to call a snap election on the pretext of seeking a Scoxit negotiating platform, containing various goodies such as a new funding formula to throw Scotland's Barnett money at Wales and the North, and a promise to reject any request for a formal currency union, then it might even work to their advantage.
Essentially, the next few years ends either with a lasting defeat for Scottish Nationalism, or independence - and the latter scenario would result in the permanent removal of the Scottish bloc from the House of Commons and leave the English Left light years away from national power. Not being able to call on Scotland as a prop might even hasten either radical change in the Labour Party or its replacement with a new centrist force. So, not an unmitigated disaster.0 -
Yes, the CTA is bilateral*.chestnut said:
That implies an expectation of Canada ++.rcs1000 said:I haven't seen this mentioned (but that might be due to me not spending much time on the site today), but David Davis said it is likely they will be able to avoid a hard border with Ireland and to maintain the Common Travel Area post-Brexit.
The CTA is a bilateral issue for the UK and Ireland, isn't it?
* Technically there are eight signatories to the treaties, when you include the Channel Islands, etc.0 -
I'm glad Special Tiara won, SPRINTER SACRE stands alone as the greatest 2 mile chaser of our generation now.0
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Cheltenham
@freetochoose - cracking selections many thanks. Made up for a shocking day there yesterday (betting-wise. Drinking-wise it was a huge success).0 -
CDA now 100s on Betfair. There's £20 there. I reckon that's worth a small punt.0
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@BlackRook
A fair assessment.
I think we've passed peak Indy and peak SNP.
A fair percentage of the Labour transfers they achieved post 2014 were on the understanding that they would stand up for Scotland within the UK.
In today's YG - 32% of SNP supporters do not support Indy. That's the highest of the subsamples across a number of pollsters.
I think they may just have jumped the shark.
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The whole point of a manifesto is that a party needs to be held to it for at least 5 years. The Tories won an overall majority in no small part thanks to their pledge not to raise the main three personal taxes. Moving to raise one of those was not a tenable position. As you say the situation needs to have significantly changed for a commitment to be broken, the public finances haven't changed very much at all and breaking commitments over £650m seems like very bad politics.kle4 said:
Except sometimes it may be necessary to divert from the manifesto in response to events. Was it necessary here? They decided it was, then decided it wasn't, but flexibility is going to be necessary sometimes, and given they thought it necessary here at first (or they were idiots and forgot about it), cowering at the first hint of opposition does not speak well as to their determination or forward planning, since either they thought it good and are pretending it is not now because of outcry, or they realised too late it was crap, showing they plan very poorly. They won't always have the option of backing off, and 'it's a manifesto commitment' is a reason to stick with something in most instances, not as something carved into stone.Tissue_Price said:
Manifesto, Manifesto, Manifesto. That's the be-all and end-all here.RobC said:
Strikes me TM panicked. Although the C4 NIC rise was not popular with the self employed, the far more numerous employed section of the population who have no choice in these matters supported the move quite strongly. Short term politics trumping economics again.Patrick said:Could I humbly suggest that Chancellors are given a clusterfuck-control-checklist to go through before every budget:
1. Is this in breach of a manifesto commitment?
2. Is this going to incense our core vote?
3. Is this going to drive a backbench rebellion?
4. Is this going to make the chancellor and/or PM look stupid/mean/clueless/otherwise lame?
5. How will our opponents use this to damage us?
6. Is there an underlying vision that this builds towards?
7. How will the press and experts react?
8. Does this make tax and spend simpler and more transparent?
9. etc -
If the government wants to provide staturoy sick leave and some kind of holiday entitlement to the self-employed and equalise NI then they are welcome to campaign on that basis in 2020.0 -
Lol - the bloke who won £100k on Altior yesterday put both his original stake and winnings on Douvan !
So now he is £400,000 down for the festival.0 -
Yet May will be the Prime Minister who "lost" Scotland and that will taint her whatever the shorter or medium term political benefits for the Conservatives.Black_Rook said:
Essentially, the next few years ends either with a lasting defeat for Scottish Nationalism, or independence - and the latter scenario would result in the permanent removal of the Scottish bloc from the House of Commons and leave the English Left light years away from national power. Not being able to call on Scotland as a prop might even hasten either radical change in the Labour Party or its replacement with a new centrist force. So, not an unmitigated disaster.
The real irony is if by 2025 an independent Scotland has a Conservative Government just as England/Wales has an anti-Conservative Government.
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The Irish have just introduced these new passport cards, so maintaining free movement between the two nations should be fairly straightforward.rcs1000 said:
Yes, the CTA is bilateral*.chestnut said:
That implies an expectation of Canada ++.rcs1000 said:I haven't seen this mentioned (but that might be due to me not spending much time on the site today), but David Davis said it is likely they will be able to avoid a hard border with Ireland and to maintain the Common Travel Area post-Brexit.
The CTA is a bilateral issue for the UK and Ireland, isn't it?
* Technically there are eight signatories to the treaties, when you include the Channel Islands, etc.
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Interesting comparison in the maps for the two leading government petitions – not the overall numbers (they were started at different times) but the patterns on the map.
Another Scottish independence referendum should not be allowed to happen
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=180642
Agree to a second referendum on Scottish Independence
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=168781
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Interesting divide
Theo Bertram
There are two strong Labour parties. They have very different views & aims. Each has more members than the Tory party. Shouldn't they split? https://t.co/3sl7gYZXTD0 -
I'm just not too sure that we are out of the era of Main Street dominance of financial services. The public is still in no mood for the financial services firms to say: listen, you don't understand...Cyclefree said:
Works both ways. Regulators round the world have worked hard to try and iron out systemic shocks to the system: information sharing and equivalent / similar rules are part of that. Lose those and not only are regulators a bit more blind than they were before but they are also still on the hook if there's a problem affecting their country. Couple that with the proposed changes in the US and there are real concerns that we could - if no deal is done - end up unpicking or losing much of the good work done post the 07-08 financial crisis.TOPPING said:
Well exactly, all this fuss about clearing, if we "win" and it stays then the BoE is on the hook for n number of EU institutions. Some control...Cyclefree said:
German regulators told one bank talking to them about getting a German banking licence that while they were happy to have the jobs and tax, all the balance sheet risk needed to be booked in London. They didn't want it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Financial stability is going to be a nightmare for both the EU and the UK if something sensible isn't agreed.
The anecdote above shows that while some European countries want the jobs and tax revenues they don't want the risks that come with financial sectors.
It's almost as if they are cherry picking.......0 -
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5. Help with sick payMaxPB said:
The whole point of a manifesto is that a party needs to be held to it for at least 5 years. The Tories won an overall majority in no small part thanks to their pledge not to raise the main three personal taxes. Moving to raise one of those was not a tenable position. As you say the situation needs to have significantly changed for a commitment to be broken, the public finances haven't changed very much at all and breaking commitments over £650m seems like very bad politics.kle4 said:
Except sometimes it may be necessary to divert from the manifesto in response to events. Was it necessary here? They decided it was, then decided it wasn't, but flexibility is going to be necessary sometimes, and given they thought it necessary here at first (or they were idiots and forgot about it), cowering at the first hint of opposition does not speak well as to their determination or forward planning, since either they thought it good and are pretending it is not now because of outcry, or they realised too late it was crap, showing they plan very poorly. They won't always have the option of backing off, and 'it's a manifesto commitment' is a reason to stick with something in most instances, not as something carved into stone.Tissue_Price said:
Manifesto, Manifesto, Manifesto. That's the be-all and end-all here.RobC said:
Strikes me TM panicked. Although the C4 NIC rise was not popular with the self employed, the far more numerous employed section of the population who have no choice in these matters supported the move quite strongly. Short term politics trumping economics again.Patrick said:Could I humbly suggest that Chancellors are given a clusterfuck-control-checklist to go through before every budget:
1. Is this in breach of a manifesto commitment?
2. Is this going to incense our core vote?
3. Is this going to drive a backbench rebellion?
4. Is this going to make the chancellor and/or PM look stupid/mean/clueless/otherwise lame?
5. How will our opponents use this to damage us?
6. Is there an underlying vision that this builds towards?
7. How will the press and experts react?
8. Does this make tax and spend simpler and more transparent?
9. etc -
If the government wants to provide staturoy sick leave and some kind of holiday entitlement to the self-employed and equalise NI then they are welcome to campaign on that basis in 2020.
Reclaiming Statutory Sick Pay
You can’t reclaim Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) for sick leave any more.
Tax and National Insurance will be deducted.
Sorry I'm not seeing where the state is paying for anything here ?!
Quite the opposite - they are still getting employer NI, tax and employee NI from the SSP the employer are paying out.0 -
That's familiar - Tony and Gordon used to send us out to fight in the last ditch for the budgets, and then move the last ditch after we'd died. Very irritating.Sandpit said:Tory MPs not happy at spending a week defending a tax rise, only for it to be rescinded by the Chancellor. Poor Rory Stewart was live with Andrew Neil when the announcement came, and hadn't been briefed.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/15/rory-stewart-hit-nics-u-turn-live-tv/0 -
I expect the EU negotiators will be smiling at how easily the Tory Gov't has been pushed around by its backbenchers here.........................
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Europe Elects @EuropeElects 35s36 seconds ago
UK (Scotland), Survation poll: Independence Referendum
Age: Yes
16-34 yrs: 57%
35-54: 51
55+: 35
60-64: 41
65-74: 27
75+: 240 -
To be fair, presumably part of the decision on whether to u-turn or not is based on how well or not their MPs are managing to defend something in public. If it's looking like an constant uphill bloodbath, then u-turn.NickPalmer said:
That's familiar - Tony and Gordon used to send us out to fight in the last ditch for the budgets, and then move the last ditch after we'd died. Very irritating.Sandpit said:Tory MPs not happy at spending a week defending a tax rise, only for it to be rescinded by the Chancellor. Poor Rory Stewart was live with Andrew Neil when the announcement came, and hadn't been briefed.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/15/rory-stewart-hit-nics-u-turn-live-tv/
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Shame it was Rory who had to take a live TV bullet. I have high hopes for the young lad.0
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I'm sure he's been tipped up a few times for leadership, but I can't see it myself.rottenborough said:Shame it was Rory who had to take a live TV bullet. I have high hopes for the young lad.
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