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  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Roger said:

    QED!!!
    peut-etre!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    rcs1000 said:

    Coincidental, I'm afraid.
    They read the same research as you. Rallings/Curtice etc. And I assume they all read Political Betting!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    matt said:

    Could be worse, it could be James Blunt. Or Adele.
    It is passable stuff, if slightly dull. Appeals to teenage girls.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    Dixie said:

    I met Mrs May a few times in 2016 and referendum, I was absolutely sure she was a Leaver. But she wanted to keep her job.

    And I met Boris even more and I was absolutely convinced he was a remainer. But he wanted to be PM.

    Both claimed the opposite to get on!
    I've never met either but it was easy to come to the same view from publicly available reporting. Similar comments could be made about Corbyn.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Mr. Dixie, he who is first shall be last, and she who is last shall be first.

    Boris' victory in the referendum was Pyrrhic.

    True. He was the Tory members' favourite for Leader/PM until unexplainably, he stood down from the contest. Must be a book coming our about why at some stage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited March 2017
    The 2017 elections should be compared with the 2012 elections in terms of PNS/NEV. However the council areas are the same as 2013.

    I'll give my thoughts once I've looked at the relevant data.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Mr. Dixie, you've forgotten the gaping hole in Boris' chest where Gove stabbed him :p
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    Coincidental, I'm afraid.
    I meant Andy's numbers. The projected national vote shares. Or are those Andy's forecast.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Mr. Dixie, you've forgotten the gaping hole in Boris' chest where Gove stabbed him :p

    Stabbed in the front!

    The rumours I was hearing (and I do not want to be sued) was newspaper Barons clearly had quite a bit on Boris (I'd been hearing this for years) and they didn't' want him so stand. 'You stand, we publish.'

    Mrs May's lot said to him...'stand down and we will make you foreign secretary.' He couldn't discuss it with his wife for obvious reasons. So, he quickly made a decision and stood down.

    Gove's wife works for the Mail Group. Gove is a Murdoch man. I was told (don't sue me) that both owner/barons told the Goves to stop Boris. Only rumour, of course.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

    Conservative 45%
    Lib Dems 24%
    Labour 15%
    UKIP 9%
    Greens 2%
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    I've never met either but it was easy to come to the same view from publicly available reporting. Similar comments could be made about Corbyn.
    Yes, fair enough. These two in particular are quite hard to read. Mrs May because she is not opinionated. Boris too, because has many characters. His hairs manifests which Boris you are going to get. Many people tell me it gets shaggier when he wants to play the joker. Look at it now he is foreign sec. It has calmed down. He is deep I can tell you. I really like him, but there are multiple Boris's.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Mr. Pulpstar, at the next General Election? Or locals?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    Dixie said:

    I met Mrs May a few times in 2016 and referendum, I was absolutely sure she was a Leaver. But she wanted to keep her job.

    And I met Boris even more and I was absolutely convinced he was a remainer. But he wanted to be PM.

    Both claimed the opposite to get on!
    As it turned out, Theresa was far more ruthlessly ambitious than Boris.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Hmm I think the Lib Dems getting more votes than Labour is highly likely for one. Labour's strongest area in these elections is probably where I am right now in Derbyshire. But they're going to get hammered everywhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    Mr. Pulpstar, at the next General Election? Or locals?

    These locals.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

    It is a horrible map for Labour.

    However on PNS they ought to be comparing with Ed Miliband's excellent 2012 results at this stage.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Glenn, maybe just smarter about it. Septimius Severus and Flavius Phocas*, but the former was capable of subtlety and diplomacy, whereas the latter was just a mutilating tyrant.

    Edited extra bit: *ahem, were both ambitious
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

    Conservative 45%
    Lib Dems 24%
    Labour 15%
    UKIP 9%
    Greens 2%

    Wow. I am not a great forecaster but I think Labour have a 20-25% bottom.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Mr. Pulpstar, that'd be atrocious. I think you're being a bit harsh on Labour and generous on the Conservatives (suspect your forecast is plausible, but right at the limit of plausible results).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited March 2017
    Dixie said:

    Wow. I am not a great forecaster but I think Labour have a 20-25% bottom.
    The actual votes received were Conservative 34.3%, Labour 21.1%, UKIP 19.9%, Lib Dem 13.8% and Green 3.5%

    2013 vote totals

    PNS : Popular vote Con 25% Labour 29%
    Lib Dem 14% UKIP 22%
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    The actual votes received were Conservative 34.3%, Labour 21.1%, UKIP 19.9%, Lib Dem 13.8% and Green 3.5%

    2013 vote totals

    PNS : Popular vote Con 25% Labour 29%
    oh, I see. Interesting. I just pray Jezza keeps his job.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    Mr. Pulpstar, that'd be atrocious. I think you're being a bit harsh on Labour and generous on the Conservatives (suspect your forecast is plausible, but right at the limit of plausible results).

    Labour's PNS will be better than their actual vote totals. All the seats are shire/rural.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,785
    edited March 2017
    Happy Families.

    Huge bust up in the EU tonight.

    Poland threatens to use their veto to stop the two speed Europe put forward by Germany and France, Holland has threatened Poland to take away their funds, Poland ridicule Hollande's 4% poll rating and Angela is furious.

    Poland also saying they will veto Tusk's appointment.

    Very unsavoury evening dinner and both sides digging in

    What's the bet the media will avoid reporting it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Dixie said:

    oh, I see. Interesting. I just pray Jezza keeps his job.
    I think Labour will be under 20% in raw vote total for sure.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I see that the Labour vote was up 13.7% in Harrow last night. Lib Dem vote barely moved.

    Does anybody know what Roxbourne ward in Harrow is like demographically?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    As it turned out, Theresa was far more ruthlessly ambitious than Boris.
    keep her views to herself. As OGH says, favourites rarely win. They get chopped down,
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    He seems to be a complete nutcase. His principal reason for supporting Leave seems to have been some bizarre vendetta against Christine Lagarde and George Osborne:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/jd-wetherspoon-pub-chief-tim-martin-sends-new-brexit-message-to-george-osborne-on-beer-mats-a7091106.html

    PS: I did once make the mistake of going to a Wetherspoon pub and actually ordering some food. I know, I know, my own stupid mistake. It's not one I'll repeat.
    good beer though
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Happy Families.

    Huge bust up in the EU tonight.

    Poland threatens to use their veto to stop the two speed Europe put forward by Germany and France, Holland has threatened Poland to take away their funds, Poland ridicule Hollande's 4% poll rating and Angela is furious.

    Poland also saying they will veto Tusk's appointment.

    Very unsavoury evening dinner and both sides digging in

    What's the bet the media will avoid reporting it

    So how do you know about it, if it's not being reported?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Dixie said:

    keep her views to herself. As OGH says, favourites rarely win. They get chopped down,
    The Next Tory Leader and Next PM markets were the textbook example of lay-the-favourite markets from around 2013 to July last year. Very profitable they were too ;)
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    chestnut said:

    I see that the Labour vote was up 13.7% in Harrow last night. Lib Dem vote barely moved.

    Does anybody know what Roxbourne ward in Harrow is like demographically?

    I don't know, but Labour continues to improve in their strongholds. Mainly big cities. It confuses Labour, which is good.
  • So how do you know about it, if it's not being reported?
    The Guardian on line and the Express on line
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    malcolmg said:

    good beer though
    I rarely go to a Wetherspoons, but made a mistake and went to one in Dundee at Lunchtime, it was very depressing and I came away thinking how awful to see so many middle aged men speed drinking, with 3 or 4 pints stacked up. This was mid week, but I formed the view this was an every day experience. The Scottish folk have a drink problem for sure.
    Meanwhile my only other Wetherspoons was Harrogate and Wow, what a beautiful re use of the building.
    I do not agree with the beer mat statements.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Dixie said:

    I don't know, but Labour continues to improve in their strongholds. Mainly big cities. It confuses Labour, which is good.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

    Not too many big cities on the coloured part of that map.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited March 2017

    The Guardian on line and the Express on line
    Well there is your answer.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Happy Families.

    Huge bust up in the EU tonight.

    Poland threatens to use their veto to stop the two speed Europe put forward by Germany and France, Holland has threatened Poland to take away their funds, Poland ridicule Hollande's 4% poll rating and Angela is furious.

    Poland also saying they will veto Tusk's appointment.

    Very unsavoury evening dinner and both sides digging in

    What's the bet the media will avoid reporting it

    The Polish refuse to sanction the official summit communique.

    https://euobserver.com/political/137190

    Multispeed Europe is a euphemism for the real EU being the Eurozone. The rest are just clinging on and will have to jump in or out sooner or later.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Pulpstar said:

    Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

    Conservative 45%
    Lib Dems 24%
    Labour 15%
    UKIP 9%
    Greens 2%

    I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    jayfdee said:

    I rarely go to a Wetherspoons, but made a mistake and went to one in Dundee at Lunchtime, it was very depressing and I came away thinking how awful to see so many middle aged men speed drinking, with 3 or 4 pints stacked up. This was mid week, but I formed the view this was an every day experience. The Scottish folk have a drink problem for sure.
    Meanwhile my only other Wetherspoons was Harrogate and Wow, what a beautiful re use of the building.
    I do not agree with the beer mat statements.
    Wetherspoons in Spennymoor does superb breakfasts very cheaply.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    edited March 2017

    Happy Families.

    Huge bust up in the EU tonight.

    Poland threatens to use their veto to stop the two speed Europe put forward by Germany and France, Holland has threatened Poland to take away their funds, Poland ridicule Hollande's 4% poll rating and Angela is furious.

    Poland also saying they will veto Tusk's appointment.

    Very unsavoury evening dinner and both sides digging in

    What's the bet the media will avoid reporting it

    Poland can't veto Tusk. He's been appointed. They voted against, but were the only dissenters. We came off the bench and voted for Tusk.

    (Oh yes, and this was yesterday :smiley:)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    rcs1000 said:

    I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.
    Yep might be a bit high tbh !

    Thinking further these are the elections of essentially Brexitshire
  • Well there is your answer.
    What is wrong with the Guardian reporting the story and the express reporting it also or is it that you do not like the story. Don't shoot the messenger

    Poland hates the fact the EU have appointed Tusk and the two speed Europe put forward by Germany and France
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Sean_F said:

    Wetherspoons in Spennymoor does superb breakfasts very cheaply.
    Gosh. Not a place I'd have associated you with.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Labour will be under 20% in raw vote total for sure.
    We need a new thread .. How far can Labour sink? Could the Tories hit 50%? Will the Lib Dems ever escape from their taxi>? Are UKIP now an irrelevance?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    What is wrong with the Guardian reporting the story and the express reporting it also or is it that you do not like the story. Don't shoot the messenger

    Poland hates the fact the EU have appointed Tusk and the two speed Europe put forward by Germany and France
    I was highlighting the paradox of your claim that the media wouldn't report it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    We shouldn't knock people like Katie Hopkins. These are kind charitable people who provide employment to the legal profession, and thereby support the wine bars and restaurants in and around Fleet Street.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    chestnut said:

    The Polish refuse to sanction the official summit communique.

    https://euobserver.com/political/137190

    Multispeed Europe is a euphemism for the real EU being the Eurozone. The rest are just clinging on and will have to jump in or out sooner or later.
    I think that's absolutely right.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Poland can't veto Tusk. He's been appointed. They voted against, but were the only dissenters. We came off the bench and voted for Tusk.

    (Oh yes, and this was yesterday :smiley:)
    Not sure but isn't the communique tonight
  • A solicitor has been struck off for taking over £1.2 million from his firm's client account to fund his online gambling addiction.

    He slips neatly into the deck of dodgy solicitor top trumps after admitting that he went "kamikaze" and "pressed the sod-it button".

    http://www.rollonfriday.com/TheNews/EuropeNews/tabid/58/Id/5027/fromTab/36/currentIndex/6/Default.aspx
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    edited March 2017
    jayfdee said:

    I rarely go to a Wetherspoons, but made a mistake and went to one in Dundee at Lunchtime, it was very depressing and I came away thinking how awful to see so many middle aged men speed drinking, with 3 or 4 pints stacked up. This was mid week, but I formed the view this was an every day experience. The Scottish folk have a drink problem for sure.
    Meanwhile my only other Wetherspoons was Harrogate and Wow, what a beautiful re use of the building.
    I do not agree with the beer mat statements.
    Yes some are better than others and the low prices do attract the every day drinkers. I only drop in for an occasional pint and they seem to be mainly busy with oldies and families for cheap food etc in daytime at least. There is usually a clique of drinkers in a corner. They do have some nice buildings converted though. I would assume most of the speed drinkers did not have to rush back to work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    Sean_F said:

    Wetherspoons in Spennymoor does superb breakfasts very cheaply.
    They do seem to have the right business model.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,203
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    We shouldn't knock people like Katie Hopkins. These are kind charitable people who provide employment to the legal profession, and thereby support the wine bars and restaurants in and around Fleet Street.

    My favourite ever case was when two former business partners fell out, and spent £600,000 each on legal fees on whether a dozen cheques, totalling £40,000 were to mandate/authorised.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    The Wetherspoons I've visited the most is the Ford Madox, just outside the Gorton ward of Manchester to meet up with friends.
  • I was highlighting the paradox of your claim that the media wouldn't report it.
    The media in this context is Sky, BBC and ITV - we will see
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356

    Alex neil sacked at Norwich.

    5 months too late.

    Far too many Labour Luvvies at the club.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,303
    Anyway, I must be off. Let's hope Ireland win by 10 points or more.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152

    Not sure but isn't the communique tonight
    Poland has communicated its isolation very effectively to the whole of Europe without needing any form of communique.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    5 months too late.

    Far too many Labour Luvvies at the club.
    Who runs it these days ? Deliah ?
    Does Ed Balls show up to games ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    5 months too late.

    Far too many Labour Luvvies at the club.
    A week earlier and he might have got the Gers gig.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,167
    Dixie said:

    Stabbed in the front!

    The rumours I was hearing (and I do not want to be sued) was newspaper Barons clearly had quite a bit on Boris (I'd been hearing this for years) and they didn't' want him so stand. 'You stand, we publish.'

    Mrs May's lot said to him...'stand down and we will make you foreign secretary.' He couldn't discuss it with his wife for obvious reasons. So, he quickly made a decision and stood down.

    Gove's wife works for the Mail Group. Gove is a Murdoch man. I was told (don't sue me) that both owner/barons told the Goves to stop Boris. Only rumour, of course.
    We should be eternally grateful to Gove for having sacrificed himself to ensure Boris did not become PM.
  • More proof, if proof were needed, that Oxford University is a complete dump.

    Three members of the Unite union with close links to Len McCluskey and Jeremy Corbyn “ran rings around the room” at a Labour National Executive Committee hearing into claims of antisemitism and bullying at Oxford University’s Labour Club.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/news-features/unions-were-behind-oxford-probe-cover-up-1.434079
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005

    The media in this context is Sky, BBC and ITV - we will see
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39232136
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    A solicitor has been struck off for taking over £1.2 million from his firm's client account to fund his online gambling addiction.

    He slips neatly into the deck of dodgy solicitor top trumps after admitting that he went "kamikaze" and "pressed the sod-it button".

    http://www.rollonfriday.com/TheNews/EuropeNews/tabid/58/Id/5027/fromTab/36/currentIndex/6/Default.aspx

    Looks like a relatively victimless crime; he seems to have broken even, and if he hadn't there's a fund (to which I imagine you as a solicitor contribute) to bail out his victims. I am surprised that sole practitioners are still allowed, given how much easier this sort of stuff is without partners looking over your shoulder.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    We should be eternally grateful to Gove for having sacrificed himself to ensure Boris did not become PM.
    :+1:

    Hopefully he can find his way back to the front benches at the next reshuffle. His work at Justice especially remains unfinished.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    Pulpstar said:

    Who runs it these days ? Deliah ?
    Does Ed Balls show up to games ?
    Deliah no longer flavour of the month.

    Here in Norwich you can hear the sound of pitchforks being returned to sheds.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    malcolmg said:

    A week earlier and he might have got the Gers gig.
    Many would have volunteered to drive him there and its a bit of a long haul from Norfolk.
  • Sandpit said:

    :+1:

    Hopefully he can find his way back to the front benches at the next reshuffle. His work at Justice especially remains unfinished.
    Not happening, he wrote a blistering attack on Mrs May in The Times today

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/839940129670189057
  • NEW THREAD

  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    We should be eternally grateful to Gove for having sacrificed himself to ensure Boris did not become PM.
    we'll never know.
This discussion has been closed.