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edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments

At GE2015, less than two years ago, the Conservative made a very specific pledge – if elected there would be no increase in VAT, National Insurance Contributions or income tax.

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  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited March 2017
    Presumably Hammond considered both options of packaging his excuses for breaking manifesto commitments into the budget itself, or letting the howls of outrage come before replying to them. He may have calculated that Corbyn is so dim that he would twig that there was a breach if Hammond said so, and otherwise wouldn't.
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    2% rise
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    UKIP's most capable figure?

    That's like saying the Green's most capable MP.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/839514672759988224
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    NIC rise, why are so many commentators bothered about it, when the growth rate & inflation projections look so suspect?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The government should hold firm on this.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/839514672759988224

    Ah, but they were going to raise it the wrong way... :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    The NI thing is such a bad idea that PB's own Scrapheap praised Mark Reckless over his criticisms on the policy.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    dr_spyn said:

    NIC rise, why are so many commentators bothered about it, when the growth rate & inflation projections look so suspect?

    I'm going to call it for what it is - naval gazing on their own personal employment situation. Not a peep on the massive local gov't cuts.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/839514672759988224

    Labour can't use it. It just reminds the punters that even a shit Miliband was so much better than Corbyn.....
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    I suspect Corbyn isn't bothered about the NIC increase.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/839516862736175104

    Rentoul has it right here.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    dr_spyn said:

    NIC rise, why are so many commentators bothered about it, when the growth rate & inflation projections look so suspect?

    (FPT) I think overall it will be neutral or better for anyone at or below average earnings because Class 2 NICs are going away. It could almost be a Labour policy given how progressive the tax is on the income distribution scale. I think it will get a disproportionate amount of coverage because a lot of journalists work as "self employed" despite only writing for a single paper. They may get hit for £400-500 extra this year and again the year after.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,154
    Labour can't attack the government over the NI rise when I suspect the leadership supports the policy.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited March 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/839514672759988224

    Labour can't use it. It just reminds the punters that even a shit Miliband was so much better than Corbyn.....
    .. and presumably they defended the policy at the time?
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Corbyn may be useless but his budget response was par for the course. Budgets only unravel when the experts see the red book. McDonnell will lead for Labour in the budget debate.

    Luckily no press or television journalists are self-employed so I think Hammond might get away with this one.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    They will still find it hard. How justifiable is the change in position is what's key. Us the change because of circumstance and they've no choice, or were they misleading everyone when they supported the plan at the time, knowing it was unworkable?
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    No sympathy for whining journos.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    If the Chancellor gets flak from a few folks paying a bit more NI, when he got away with making NO MENTION of Brexit, he'll consider it a fair trade I reckon.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Corbyn may be useless but his budget response was par for the course. Budgets only unravel when the experts see the red book. McDonnell will lead for Labour in the budget debate.

    Luckily no press or television journalists are self-employed so I think Hammond might get away with this one.

    Tax dodgers lorra' em.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/839516862736175104

    Rentoul has it right here.


    Then stop them if they're really not self-employed.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    It is definitely a breach of the 2015 manifesto, but a very minor one in the grand scheme of things
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SandyRentool said:

    Labour can't attack the government over the NI rise when I suspect the leadership supports the policy.

    They can attack perceived incompetence at promising not to do it, messing up, then having to do it. It depends how the government defends it. Trying to spin they've not broken a pledge will make attacking them easier.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,154
    old_labour said:

    No sympathy for whining journos.

    Or for journeying winos.

    (Two descriptions for SeanT?)
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    https://twitter.com/matthancockmp/status/474202058124701696

    The whole of the 2015 election campaign is now toxic for Theresa.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited March 2017
    MarkHopkins said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/839516862736175104

    Rentoul has it right here.


    Then stop them if they're really not self-employed.

    Almost impossible to define these days - Amazon, Uber, Deliveroo have chucked the baby out with the bathwater with their clever lawyers and accountants. And BBC self employment..
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    The government needs to take ownership of the broken pledge. It is a damn sight harder to attack when those doing it are prepared to accept it exists. But if you are going to do something unpopular, it is best to make a virtue of it - and in this case there's a virtue to be made. It's a progressive tax and it's equalising something that can easily be sold as an unfairness.

    But no matter how well or badly the government handles it, it'll be a one weekend wonder, at best. Brexit back stage centre within days and Class 4 NICs will be lost in the detail of history.

    Of course, some journalists might remember but even then, few people remember historic tax rises (or cuts); just how they're feeling in the moment. The exceptions are where there's a manifest unfairness or where there's a gross breach of trust. I don't think this tinkering amounts to a gross breach.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Spent the entire day rather busy and oblivious to the budget. – It was great! :lol:

    Who replied to the chancellor and how did it go..?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Phil Hammond should have spent as much time on policy as he did on the gags.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/matthancockmp/status/474202058124701696

    The whole of the 2015 election campaign is now toxic for Theresa.

    The whole campaign was about self-employed NI contributions?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The government's problem is that backbenchers will see this as hurting "their" people. That's going to make the resulting brouhaha far harder to contain. The real opposition is going to come from truculent Conservative MPs rather than other parties.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/matthancockmp/status/474202058124701696

    The whole of the 2015 election campaign is now toxic for Theresa.

    The whole campaign was about self-employed NI contributions?
    It was about economic competence. History shows what happens once the Tories lose that USP.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    MarkHopkins said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/839516862736175104

    Rentoul has it right here.


    Then stop them if they're really not self-employed.

    HMRC do not have the resources, and never will to work out who is 'proper' self -employment, and who's really not.

    Same with companies and IR35, there's too many of them, and they simply can't do it on a case by case basis.

    HMRC isn't a functioning body, and hasn't been for a long time.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The government's problem is that backbenchers will see this as hurting "their" people. That's going to make the resulting brouhaha far harder to contain. The real opposition is going to come from truculent Conservative MPs rather than other parties.

    That sounds about right. It's a tax increase on the wealthy tax avoider which has the nasty side effect of increasing taxes on legitimate entrepreneurs.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The government's problem is that backbenchers will see this as hurting "their" people. That's going to make the resulting brouhaha far harder to contain. The real opposition is going to come from truculent Conservative MPs rather than other parties.

    The same thing that happened to Osborne on benefits cuts.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Have we done this yet? A really interesting exercise - the Clinton/Trump debates, but gender-reversed:

    We heard a lot of “now I understand how this happened”—meaning how Trump won the election. People got upset. There was a guy two rows in front of me who was literally holding his head in his hands, and the person with him was rubbing his back. The simplicity of Trump’s message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman—that was a theme. One person said, “I’m just so struck by how precise Trump’s technique is.” Another—a musical theater composer, actually—said that Trump created “hummable lyrics,” while Clinton talked a lot, and everything she was was true and factual, but there was no “hook” to it. Another theme was about not liking either candidate—you know, “I wouldn’t vote for either one.” Someone said that Jonathan Gordon [the male Hillary Clinton] was “really punchable” because of all the smiling. And a lot of people were just very surprised by the way it upended their expectations about what they thought they would feel or experience.

    https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/matthancockmp/status/474202058124701696

    The whole of the 2015 election campaign is now toxic for Theresa.

    The whole campaign was about self-employed NI contributions?
    It was about economic competence. History shows what happens once the Tories lose that USP.
    Raising one tax hardly destroys economic competence.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Obvious question: does the government have the votes to get the NI changes through?

    Assuming a unified opposition, nope it only needs 8 MPs to rebel.

    It depends how many Tory MPs get bombarded by the self employed in the next few days.
    Are there restrictions on the HoC and/or HoL voting down stuff in Finance Bills?
    The Lords can't amend/hold up finance bills, but the Commons can.

    In the days of yore, prior to the FTPA, a budget was a vote of confidence issue, now it ain't.
    What was Ozzy's tax-credit thing all about then? Or was that because it was from an Autumn Statement?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11954740/Tax-credits-Government-faces-defeat-in-the-House-of-Lords-live.html
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/839500800770596864
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Herdson, indeed. Either stand up and say it's better to break than keep that promise, or u-turn.

    It's a bit similar to the pre-emptive apology. When you know it's going to be demanded, apologise fully and without being asked. It can be quite delightful watching the wind being taken from the other person's sails.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    maybe because shes got the cojones to govern

    do all the hard things early and get them out of the way

  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Net migrants will make up most of the Budget’s projected extra 700,000 people who will be in employment in Britain over the next three years, according to the Office of Budget Responsibility.

    The OBR says that despite the expected post-Brexit tightening of immigration policy net inward migration will account for three-quarters of that projected rise in employment.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Obvious question: does the government have the votes to get the NI changes through?

    Assuming a unified opposition, nope it only needs 8 MPs to rebel.

    It depends how many Tory MPs get bombarded by the self employed in the next few days.
    Are there restrictions on the HoC and/or HoL voting down stuff in Finance Bills?
    The Lords can't amend/hold up finance bills, but the Commons can.

    In the days of yore, prior to the FTPA, a budget was a vote of confidence issue, now it ain't.
    What was Ozzy's tax-credit thing all about then? Or was that because it was from an Autumn Statement?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11954740/Tax-credits-Government-faces-defeat-in-the-House-of-Lords-live.html
    That wasn't a money bill that a budget is?
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    maybe because shes got the cojones to govern

    do all the hard things early and get them out of the way

    She hasn't done very well so far though. Grammar school announcement and budget. Both cock ups. Although I'm glad we're having a red white and blue brexit. Has she done anything else?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Obvious question: does the government have the votes to get the NI changes through?

    Assuming a unified opposition, nope it only needs 8 MPs to rebel.

    It depends how many Tory MPs get bombarded by the self employed in the next few days.
    Are there restrictions on the HoC and/or HoL voting down stuff in Finance Bills?
    The Lords can't amend/hold up finance bills, but the Commons can.

    In the days of yore, prior to the FTPA, a budget was a vote of confidence issue, now it ain't.
    What was Ozzy's tax-credit thing all about then? Or was that because it was from an Autumn Statement?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11954740/Tax-credits-Government-faces-defeat-in-the-House-of-Lords-live.html
    That wasn't a money bill that a budget is?
    Yeah. If I remember correctly it was secondary legislation which the Lords don't typically block.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    Or perhaps it was but is longer feasible in this specific instance. As Mr herdson says, they need to own this. Yes opponents will make hay with this, but if it needs doing then play the contrite grown up admitting that.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited March 2017
    Tissue_Price said:

    Have we done this yet? A really interesting exercise - the Clinton/Trump debates, but gender-reversed:

    We heard a lot of “now I understand how this happened”—meaning how Trump won the election. People got upset. There was a guy two rows in front of me who was literally holding his head in his hands, and the person with him was rubbing his back. The simplicity of Trump’s message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman—that was a theme. One person said, “I’m just so struck by how precise Trump’s technique is.” Another—a musical theater composer, actually—said that Trump created “hummable lyrics,” while Clinton talked a lot, and everything she was was true and factual, but there was no “hook” to it. Another theme was about not liking either candidate—you know, “I wouldn’t vote for either one.” Someone said that Jonathan Gordon [the male Hillary Clinton] was “really punchable” because of all the smiling. And a lot of people were just very surprised by the way it upended their expectations about what they thought they would feel or experience.

    https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html

    Plato posted it earlier

    It was ignored then, I am sure it will be appreciated now :smiley:

    The woman does a good Trump impression doesn't she?!
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    For the vast majority of voters, the Tories haven't broken their pledge not to raise NI.

    I suspect the sympathy for those who have had a raise will be slight to none.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Have we done this yet? A really interesting exercise - the Clinton/Trump debates, but gender-reversed:

    We heard a lot of “now I understand how this happened”—meaning how Trump won the election. People got upset. There was a guy two rows in front of me who was literally holding his head in his hands, and the person with him was rubbing his back. The simplicity of Trump’s message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman—that was a theme. One person said, “I’m just so struck by how precise Trump’s technique is.” Another—a musical theater composer, actually—said that Trump created “hummable lyrics,” while Clinton talked a lot, and everything she was was true and factual, but there was no “hook” to it. Another theme was about not liking either candidate—you know, “I wouldn’t vote for either one.” Someone said that Jonathan Gordon [the male Hillary Clinton] was “really punchable” because of all the smiling. And a lot of people were just very surprised by the way it upended their expectations about what they thought they would feel or experience.

    https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html

    Plato posted it earlier

    It was ignored then, I am sure it will be appreciated now :smiley:
    I didn't get that impression when it was originally posted.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    midwinter said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    maybe because shes got the cojones to govern

    do all the hard things early and get them out of the way

    She hasn't done very well so far though. Grammar school announcement and budget. Both cock ups. Although I'm glad we're having a red white and blue brexit. Has she done anything else?
    in your view, seems pretty straightforward in mine
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Plato posted it earlier

    It was ignored then, I am sure it will be appreciated now :smiley:

    Genuine lol at that!
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2017
    I think it's reasonable. Us self employed have done better than most so no complaints.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Have we done this yet? A really interesting exercise - the Clinton/Trump debates, but gender-reversed:

    We heard a lot of “now I understand how this happened”—meaning how Trump won the election. People got upset. There was a guy two rows in front of me who was literally holding his head in his hands, and the person with him was rubbing his back. The simplicity of Trump’s message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman—that was a theme. One person said, “I’m just so struck by how precise Trump’s technique is.” Another—a musical theater composer, actually—said that Trump created “hummable lyrics,” while Clinton talked a lot, and everything she was was true and factual, but there was no “hook” to it. Another theme was about not liking either candidate—you know, “I wouldn’t vote for either one.” Someone said that Jonathan Gordon [the male Hillary Clinton] was “really punchable” because of all the smiling. And a lot of people were just very surprised by the way it upended their expectations about what they thought they would feel or experience.

    https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html

    Plato posted it earlier

    It was ignored then, I am sure it will be appreciated now :smiley:
    I didn't get that impression when it was originally posted.
    You are right, I was just kidding
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Roger said:

    I think it's reasonable. Us self employed have done better than most so no complaints.

    Tory Boy Roger :-)
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Have we done this yet? A really interesting exercise - the Clinton/Trump debates, but gender-reversed:

    We heard a lot of “now I understand how this happened”—meaning how Trump won the election. People got upset. There was a guy two rows in front of me who was literally holding his head in his hands, and the person with him was rubbing his back. The simplicity of Trump’s message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman—that was a theme. One person said, “I’m just so struck by how precise Trump’s technique is.” Another—a musical theater composer, actually—said that Trump created “hummable lyrics,” while Clinton talked a lot, and everything she was was true and factual, but there was no “hook” to it. Another theme was about not liking either candidate—you know, “I wouldn’t vote for either one.” Someone said that Jonathan Gordon [the male Hillary Clinton] was “really punchable” because of all the smiling. And a lot of people were just very surprised by the way it upended their expectations about what they thought they would feel or experience.

    https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html

    Plato posted it earlier

    It was ignored then, I am sure it will be appreciated now :smiley:
    I didn't get that impression when it was originally posted.
    You are right, I was just kidding
    Ah, sorry. Sarcasm detector clearly wonky.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Question: if the Govt.changed some technical aspect of a provision of Income Tax to stop say footballers getting away with paying a lower rate of tax than Joe Public, would that be considered breaking a general pledge not to raise Income Tax?

    I reckon Joe Public says no, fvck 'em, let them pay the same as me. And so will it be with NI and the self-employed.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    old_labour said:

    Net migrants will make up most of the Budget’s projected extra 700,000 people who will be in employment in Britain over the next three years, according to the Office of Budget Responsibility.

    The OBR says that despite the expected post-Brexit tightening of immigration policy net inward migration will account for three-quarters of that projected rise in employment.

    OBR Forecasts...

    Nov 2016 PSNB £68bn
    Mar 2017 PSNB £51bn

    It's like having Brown back.

    A rise in NIC will no more hurt the Tories electoral prospects than granny/pasty taxes did, and it will be A50 all over the news again by next week.

    A brief look at who is on the building sites, driving Ubers and delivering Amazon parcels all over London and the SE suggests that they might not actually be the Tory/UKIP vote.

    Interesting to note that the PSNB of £51bn is 2.6% Deficit-to-GDP, and essentially it's the gross debt interest figure.

    Even with APF, the deficit is basically debt interest plus a portion of the money given to foreign entities - either aid or EU payments. Everything else is funded.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Corbyn may be useless but his budget response was par for the course. Budgets only unravel when the experts see the red book. McDonnell will lead for Labour in the budget debate.

    Luckily no press or television journalists are self-employed so I think Hammond might get away with this one.

    The Little Red Book?

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Roger said:

    I think it's reasonable. Us self employed have done better than most so no complaints.

    Who are you and what have you done with the original…! :wink:
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    Next we will have TSE promising us a thread on the virtues of the FPTP voting system :smiley:
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    On topic - with a decent leader of the opposition the entire political landscape would look very different. In fact, the likelihood is that had Labour had a leader who did not support leaving the EU, David Cameron would still be Prime Minister.

    But we are where we are and the Tories know that for as long as Jeremy Corbyn is facing them there is literally nothing they can say or do that will prevent them winning the next general election. That's great for them, very bad for the country.
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    Jezza's response to spreadsheet Phil was like a 13 year old taking his first steps in public speaking. His own side were sleepy because a) he was turgid; b) they disagree with every word.

    Happy days for we Tories, but we must get complacent.
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    Dixie said:

    Jezza's response to spreadsheet Phil was like a 13 year old taking his first steps in public speaking. His own side were sleepy because a) he was turgid; b) they disagree with every word.

    Happy days for we Tories, but we must get complacent.

    must NOT GET COMPLACENT. That was me being complacent!
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,059
    edited March 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    Labour can't attack the government over the NI rise when I suspect the leadership supports the policy.

    They can attack the govt saying it is a Labour policy and, had they a competent leader, could build on the end of austerity announced last year and other u-turns which with any other version of Labour would build a picture of a confused government adopting opposition policies.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    When cameron brought the pledge forward,at the time didn't even you have any misgivings about it ?
  • Bojabob
    Bojabob Posts: 642
    RobD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    Next we will have TSE promising us a thread on the virtues of the FPTP voting system :smiley:
    Now you are just being silly.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    The journos on Sky News are seething about National Insurance. Time for them to declare any personal interests when "reporting" a story.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    MarqueeMark said:

    Question: if the Govt.changed some technical aspect of a provision of Income Tax to stop say footballers getting away with paying a lower rate of tax than Joe Public, would that be considered breaking a general pledge not to raise Income Tax?

    I reckon Joe Public says no, fvck 'em, let them pay the same as me. And so will it be with NI and the self-employed.

    Indeed. That's why the govt needs to get out of the Westminster game of 'is it a broken promise?', accept that it is and make the case for it. Anything else just looks shifty and leaves the other side the field.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    When cameron brought the pledge forward,at the time didn't even you have any misgivings about it ?
    leave off TJ

    Osborne promised there would be no deficit by 2015

    Im surprised Hammond isnt redistributing all the money he saved
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    MarqueeMark said:

    For the vast majority of voters, the Tories haven't broken their pledge not to raise NI.

    I suspect the sympathy for those who have had a raise will be slight to none.

    Doesn't always work like that though - diffuse benefits and concentrated costs, could see a very vocal minority of the self employed pressuring Tory backbenchers to oppose this, even if the majority aren't affected.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    chestnut said:

    old_labour said:

    Net migrants will make up most of the Budget’s projected extra 700,000 people who will be in employment in Britain over the next three years, according to the Office of Budget Responsibility.

    The OBR says that despite the expected post-Brexit tightening of immigration policy net inward migration will account for three-quarters of that projected rise in employment.

    OBR Forecasts...

    Nov 2016 PSNB £68bn
    Mar 2017 PSNB £51bn

    It's like having Brown back.

    [snip]

    I'm not sure Brown ever had his borrowing estimates *reduced* by £17bn in a year, with the possible exception (and it was exceptional) of the 3G windfall auction.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    david_herdson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Question: if the Govt.changed some technical aspect of a provision of Income Tax to stop say footballers getting away with paying a lower rate of tax than Joe Public, would that be considered breaking a general pledge not to raise Income Tax?

    I reckon Joe Public says no, fvck 'em, let them pay the same as me. And so will it be with NI and the self-employed.

    Indeed. That's why the govt needs to get out of the Westminster game of 'is it a broken promise?', accept that it is and make the case for it. Anything else just looks shifty and leaves the other side the field.
    Yes, but that would then beg the question: why is the promise being broken? There's no answer to that either that is good for the government.

    The actual policy is less problematic, I agree.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is going to give some people ideas...

    https://twitter.com/repeattofade/status/839523392541847552
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    edited March 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.

    In fact I wrote a piece saying Osborne should be replaced as Chancellor.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Scott_P said:

    This is going to give some people ideas...

    https://twitter.com/repeattofade/status/839523392541847552

    We're going to have the best healthcare act, folks. The best!
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.
    bandwagonner
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.
    bandwagonner
    Check out my edit.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited March 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.
    bandwagonner
    Check out my edit.
    you were just too late getting on the George is crap ticket
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Alanbrooke said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Why is Theresa May crapping on the only Tory manifesto that the Tories have won a majority on in the last 25 years?

    Is she a Labour sleeper agent?

    When cameron brought the pledge forward,at the time didn't even you have any misgivings about it ?
    leave off TJ

    Osborne promised there would be no deficit by 2015

    Im surprised Hammond isnt redistributing all the money he saved
    Well put Mr brooke ;-)
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Scott_P said:

    This is going to give some people ideas...

    https://twitter.com/repeattofade/status/839523392541847552

    "The Greatest Repeal Bill In The World... Ever!"
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.
    bandwagonner
    Check out my edit.
    you were just too late getting on the George is crap ticket
    Nah, George is awesome. Today has convinced me more than ever he's going to be our next leader (and hopefully next PM)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/cchqpress/status/585014899253870592
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AlastairMeeks said:

    david_herdson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Question: if the Govt.changed some technical aspect of a provision of Income Tax to stop say footballers getting away with paying a lower rate of tax than Joe Public, would that be considered breaking a general pledge not to raise Income Tax?

    I reckon Joe Public says no, fvck 'em, let them pay the same as me. And so will it be with NI and the self-employed.

    Indeed. That's why the govt needs to get out of the Westminster game of 'is it a broken promise?', accept that it is and make the case for it. Anything else just looks shifty and leaves the other side the field.
    Yes, but that would then beg the question: why is the promise being broken? There's no answer to that either that is good for the government.

    The actual policy is less problematic, I agree.
    The promise is being broken to increase fairness between two parts of the workforce. Of course, the government would prefer to do this via giving the employed a tax cut, but There Is No Money Left™.

    James Kirkup is good on this:

    [W]e need to separate Mr Corbyn and the ideas he promotes. Personally, he's hopeless, a voter-repellent who will never be PM and will never worry Mrs May. But his ideas? That's different.

    When Mr Hammond talks about people who think the "dice are loaded", he is responding directly to Mr Corbyn's narrative of an economy run by the rich for the rich, a system "rigged" against ordinary people.

    [...]

    A lot of this will go down fairly badly with some Conservatives and Conservative-minded commentators. They'll rage about a Tory Government doing Left-wing things and abandoning free-market principles, about mistakenly following in the footsteps of George Osborne and even Tony Blair.

    I suspect that rage won't deflect Mrs May and Mr Hammond, who may quietly reflect that their approach is probably a better way to save Britain's open market economy from populism than doing "proper" Tory things. They'll be right, too.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/08/philip-hammond-reveals-healthy-fear-economic-populism-donald/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/cchqpress/status/585014899253870592

    Oh gawd.. are we going to have millions of 2015 election campaign tweets now?
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    SouthamObserver said:

    On topic - with a decent leader of the opposition the entire political landscape would look very different. In fact, the likelihood is that had Labour had a leader who did not support leaving the EU, David Cameron would still be Prime Minister.

    I suppose we must give Dave some slack. In all the hours spent weighing up the pros and cons for calling a referendum, surely 'Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Leader' never featured in the calculation.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    @TIssue_Price The gov't should stick to its guns over this one.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/839513310974337025
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.
    bandwagonner
    Check out my edit.
    you were just too late getting on the George is crap ticket
    Nah, George is awesome. Today has convinced me more than ever he's going to be our next leader (and hopefully next PM)
    You were on Team Phil at 1.15!
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    @TIssue_Price The gov't should stick to its guns over this one.

    The more I read the less convinced I am that they will.
  • View_From_Cumbria
    View_From_Cumbria Posts: 241
    Well as a self-employed white van driver - Peugeot as it happens - who always votes Tory I can't see any problem with the NIC stuff. It is all within the margin of error and getting rid of Class 2 is definitely a good thing.

    My accountant will tell me what I have to pay and I will pay it. I pay two orders of magnitude more in other forms of taxation. I doubt the change will cost me more than my bull does in vet fees - he has problems with his feet.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    How things have changed with the Lib Dems now irrelevant and invisible at budget time.


  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    edited March 2017
    The question is there footage from April/May 2015 of Mrs May promising no NI increases?

    I'd expect there might be.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There was of course a chap who wrote not so long ago about the Conservatives having headed leftwards economically and rightwards socially:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/17/the-return-of-butskellism/

    The thesis was objected to on about 15 different mutually contradictory grounds but it still looks fair enough to me.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/839516862736175104

    Rentoul has it right here.

    Wasn't that the point? I'm always a bit puzzled when governments create economic incentives and then complain when people take them up and buy diesel cars, go self-employed or install solar panels.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles attacking the Conservative Budget, Mr. Roger defending it. Are the End Times upon us?

    I criticised the 2012 budget.
    bandwagonner
    Check out my edit.
    you were just too late getting on the George is crap ticket
    Nah, George is awesome. Today has convinced me more than ever he's going to be our next leader (and hopefully next PM)
    You were on Team Phil at 1.15!
    Yeah, then I realised Phil was crap. I mean he read PPE at Oxford.

    Whereas George read Modern History.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @TIssue_Price The gov't should stick to its guns over this one.

    The more I read the less convinced I am that they will.
    But they ought to. It shows a respect for fundamental fairness and adds to the Tory gains over Labour which is surely the main point for the next GE.
  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/839514672759988224

    Labour can't use it. It just reminds the punters that even a shit Miliband was so much better than Corbyn.....
    Perhaps the Lib Dems could use it, Mr Mark... They have clean hands on this. The Conservative Party is just a gang of reckless and irresponsible people who will say and promise absolutely anything in order to get into power. They cannot be trusted with power.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    So this Tory government that says it wants to drastically reduce immigration - and is prioritising that over retaining single market membership - is actually reliant on continuing high levels of immigration to keep the economy afloat.
This discussion has been closed.

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