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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments
At GE2015, less than two years ago, the Conservative made a very specific pledge – if elected there would be no increase in VAT, National Insurance Contributions or income tax.
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That's like saying the Green's most capable MP.
Rentoul has it right here.
Luckily no press or television journalists are self-employed so I think Hammond might get away with this one.
Then stop them if they're really not self-employed.
(Two descriptions for SeanT?)
The whole of the 2015 election campaign is now toxic for Theresa.
But no matter how well or badly the government handles it, it'll be a one weekend wonder, at best. Brexit back stage centre within days and Class 4 NICs will be lost in the detail of history.
Of course, some journalists might remember but even then, few people remember historic tax rises (or cuts); just how they're feeling in the moment. The exceptions are where there's a manifest unfairness or where there's a gross breach of trust. I don't think this tinkering amounts to a gross breach.
Who replied to the chancellor and how did it go..?
Is she a Labour sleeper agent?
Same with companies and IR35, there's too many of them, and they simply can't do it on a case by case basis.
HMRC isn't a functioning body, and hasn't been for a long time.
We heard a lot of “now I understand how this happened”—meaning how Trump won the election. People got upset. There was a guy two rows in front of me who was literally holding his head in his hands, and the person with him was rubbing his back. The simplicity of Trump’s message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman—that was a theme. One person said, “I’m just so struck by how precise Trump’s technique is.” Another—a musical theater composer, actually—said that Trump created “hummable lyrics,” while Clinton talked a lot, and everything she was was true and factual, but there was no “hook” to it. Another theme was about not liking either candidate—you know, “I wouldn’t vote for either one.” Someone said that Jonathan Gordon [the male Hillary Clinton] was “really punchable” because of all the smiling. And a lot of people were just very surprised by the way it upended their expectations about what they thought they would feel or experience.
https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11954740/Tax-credits-Government-faces-defeat-in-the-House-of-Lords-live.html
It's a bit similar to the pre-emptive apology. When you know it's going to be demanded, apologise fully and without being asked. It can be quite delightful watching the wind being taken from the other person's sails.
do all the hard things early and get them out of the way
The OBR says that despite the expected post-Brexit tightening of immigration policy net inward migration will account for three-quarters of that projected rise in employment.
It was ignored then, I am sure it will be appreciated now
The woman does a good Trump impression doesn't she?!
I suspect the sympathy for those who have had a raise will be slight to none.
I reckon Joe Public says no, fvck 'em, let them pay the same as me. And so will it be with NI and the self-employed.
Nov 2016 PSNB £68bn
Mar 2017 PSNB £51bn
It's like having Brown back.
A rise in NIC will no more hurt the Tories electoral prospects than granny/pasty taxes did, and it will be A50 all over the news again by next week.
A brief look at who is on the building sites, driving Ubers and delivering Amazon parcels all over London and the SE suggests that they might not actually be the Tory/UKIP vote.
Interesting to note that the PSNB of £51bn is 2.6% Deficit-to-GDP, and essentially it's the gross debt interest figure.
Even with APF, the deficit is basically debt interest plus a portion of the money given to foreign entities - either aid or EU payments. Everything else is funded.
But we are where we are and the Tories know that for as long as Jeremy Corbyn is facing them there is literally nothing they can say or do that will prevent them winning the next general election. That's great for them, very bad for the country.
Happy days for we Tories, but we must get complacent.
Osborne promised there would be no deficit by 2015
Im surprised Hammond isnt redistributing all the money he saved
The actual policy is less problematic, I agree.
https://twitter.com/repeattofade/status/839523392541847552
In fact I wrote a piece saying Osborne should be replaced as Chancellor.
James Kirkup is good on this:
[W]e need to separate Mr Corbyn and the ideas he promotes. Personally, he's hopeless, a voter-repellent who will never be PM and will never worry Mrs May. But his ideas? That's different.
When Mr Hammond talks about people who think the "dice are loaded", he is responding directly to Mr Corbyn's narrative of an economy run by the rich for the rich, a system "rigged" against ordinary people.
[...]
A lot of this will go down fairly badly with some Conservatives and Conservative-minded commentators. They'll rage about a Tory Government doing Left-wing things and abandoning free-market principles, about mistakenly following in the footsteps of George Osborne and even Tony Blair.
I suspect that rage won't deflect Mrs May and Mr Hammond, who may quietly reflect that their approach is probably a better way to save Britain's open market economy from populism than doing "proper" Tory things. They'll be right, too.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/08/philip-hammond-reveals-healthy-fear-economic-populism-donald/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
My accountant will tell me what I have to pay and I will pay it. I pay two orders of magnitude more in other forms of taxation. I doubt the change will cost me more than my bull does in vet fees - he has problems with his feet.
I'd expect there might be.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/17/the-return-of-butskellism/
The thesis was objected to on about 15 different mutually contradictory grounds but it still looks fair enough to me.
Whereas George read Modern History.