politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A grim set of local by-elections for Corbyn’s LAB losing a sea

Good afternoon, everyone.

Strangford


DUP Democratic Unionist Party 39.9
UUP Ulster Unionist Party 20.0
APNI Alliance Party 15.0
SDLP SDLP 7.9
IND Independent 4.2
OTH OTHERS 13.0

DUP -3.1
Alliance +4.3
SLPD -0.5
UUP +0.5

Wow turnout higher in N.Ireland than General election. Pretty good.

wasd said:

rottenborough said:

Recidivist said:

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

It was not Corbyn to blame.

It was a mixture of Arthur Henderson, El Nino and those accountants at the Oscars.

But definitely, definitely NOT Corbyn

The continued imposition of food rationing by Cripps has suppressed the Labour vote.

Well food rationing could be back if things get really bad.

http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/eu/shortage-of-farm-workers-in-the-uk-could-see-food-rot-in-the-ground-35496358.html

Good point. And worrying.

I believe we used to have short term, bonded farm labour visas for this kind of thing - there's no particular reason they couldn't be resurrected.

In fact we could really old school and bring back bonded labourers who work for free in return for a small parcel of land to grow their food on. Worked for King John.

England starting their test match at a safe, if steady pace. It is a test match isn't it?

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

SeanT said:

dugarbandier said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

what industries should we be in?

This is the most pointless argument. The government has already agreed that we will need seasonal workers in agriculture, post Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/british-farmers-will-have-access-migrant-workers-brexit-andrea/

The fruit will not rot.

mine was the counter-argument. address yr concerns to M.Fishing

Mr. Observer, you metropolitan liberal elitist.

DavidL said:

England starting their test match at a safe, if steady pace. It is a test match isn't it?

You spoke too soon....

SouthamObserver said:

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

Only peasants fly with BA.

BA are the worst carrier out there.

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

What's the secret of getting upgrades? I've never had one.

Fly lots with one carrier, get their credit card, go premium economy.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

Only peasants fly with BA.

BA are the worst carrier out there.

It is the national flag carrier and certainly better than many

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

What's the secret of getting upgrades? I've never had one.

Fly a lot on busy routes with a gold card. If they overbook you get bumped up. No other way in my experience. I do not have the patter.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

Only peasants fly with BA.

BA are the worst carrier out there.

Solid, I'd say. Better than the Americans and most Europeans. Not as good as most of the main Asian carriers.

AlsoIndigo said:

Recidivist said:

SeanT said:

dugarbandier said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

what industries should we be in?

This is the most pointless argument. The government has already agreed that we will need seasonal workers in agriculture, post Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/british-farmers-will-have-access-migrant-workers-brexit-andrea/

The fruit will not rot.

And this will satisfy Brexit voters who thought they were keeping foreigners out?

No they didn't, you must have missed that the campaign was "Take Back Control".

I know you don't live here, so it is understandable you missed this.

Irwin (DUP) & Boylan (SF) elected in Newry Armagh


East Belfast
DUP - 37.58%
APNI - 31.39%
UUP - 13.07%
PUP - 6.59%
Grn - 3.59%
SF - 2.91%
TUV - 2.27%
CCLA - 1.10%
Con - 0.68%
SDLP - 0.62%
Ind - 0.21%

Noami Longi (All) elected at first stage

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

I think it's a good piece. Absolutely agree about McDonnell amendment which would guarantee fractious, messy leadership contests with far too many candidates... also agree that very likely Corbyn went backwards despite re election looking comfortable.

Where I differ:
I think you're too quick to write off chances of the likes of Clive Lewis doing better in eelctoral terms than Corbyn. The messenger matters...

I also think youre too bullish on another left candidate winning amongst the membership. Corbyn I think has a personal brand - which may not transfer to another candidate. The more time passes, the more the membership changes its composition or their minds.

In a 2018 leadership contest... Moderates should be much better prepared to take on Corbyn/left candidate. In 2015 they were caught off guard and made the calamatous mistake of not opposing Tory welfare cuts. In 2018 we will be in tough brexit negotiations - a much stronger issue for them vs. Corbyn wing of party.

Cookie said:

Pulpstar said:

#NIreland (33% counted)
#DUP: 27% (-2)
#SF: 27% (+3)
#UUP: 14% (+1)
#SDLP: 12%
#A: 9% (+2)
#TUV: 3% (-1)
#Green: 3%
#PbP: 1% (-1) #AE17

Apparently.

Essay question - was the swing away from the moderate voices of unionism and nationalism to their more extreme counterparts an inevitable outcome of the peace process?

No. But the moderating of the more extreme political elements was (otherwise there wouldn't have been a peace process), and that's not unconnected.

SeanT said:

Recidivist said:

SeanT said:

dugarbandier said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

what industries should we be in?

This is the most pointless argument. The government has already agreed that we will need seasonal workers in agriculture, post Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/british-farmers-will-have-access-migrant-workers-brexit-andrea/

The fruit will not rot.

And this will satisfy Brexit voters who thought they were keeping foreigners out?

Yes, because they will get short term visas, will not settle, won't bring family, and won't have access to in-work benefits, etc. Next.

They'll have much greater motivation to seduce the locals in order to obtain the right to stay.

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nice upgrade to First on BA flight back from Singapore tonight. Take that peasants.

What's the secret of getting upgrades? I've never had one.

Dress very smartly, they won't want riff-raff wearing jeans, t-shirt and scruffy trainers mixing with their other first class travellers.

Only time I have had an upgrade was when my wife and I were travelling to New York and she decided to doll herself up for the flight. When we checked our luggage in, they looked us up and down and upgraded us to first class.

Lagan Valley

DUP Democratic Unionist Party 41.3
UUP Ulster Unionist Party 25.2
APNI Alliance Party 13.5
SDLP SDLP 8.4
SF Sinn Féin 4.0
OTH OTHERS 7.6

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Ok,one criticism (whilst acknowledging my agreement with everyone else that this is an excellent article). The article acknowledges that a serious, moderate candidate needs to be put to the membership, and the flaky left wingers ignored. But now the genie is out of the bottle, and the gulf between the party membership and the PLP exposed, how does the new, sensible leader deal with the opposite crisis of legitimacy - rather than a leader without the support of the PLP, you now have a leader without the implied support of the main electorate? How does this circle get squared?

SeanT said:

Recidivist said:

SeanT said:

dugarbandier said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

what industries should we be in?

This is the most pointless argument. The government has already agreed that we will need seasonal workers in agriculture, post Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/british-farmers-will-have-access-migrant-workers-brexit-andrea/

The fruit will not rot.

And this will satisfy Brexit voters who thought they were keeping foreigners out?

Yes, because they will get short term visas, will not settle, won't bring family, and won't have access to in-work benefits, etc. Next.

I live on the borders of Herefordshire. We've had seasonal workers coming here since Adam was a lad. Long before the EEC.

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Ok,one criticism (whilst acknowledging my agreement with everyone else that this is an excellent article). The article acknowledges that a serious, moderate candidate needs to be put to the membership, and the flaky left wingers ignored. But now the genie is out of the bottle, and the gulf between the party membership and the PLP exposed, how does the new, sensible leader deal with the opposite crisis of legitimacy - rather than a leader without the support of the PLP, you now have a leader without the implied support of the main electorate? How does this circle get squared?

By striking at the optimal time, as a general election approaches, it focuses minds.

The Tory members didn't rebel or complain when the Parliamentary party toppled IDS and didn't even have an election.

That said, as much as I criticise David Davis, he put the party first in 2003, do potential Labour contenders have that level of discipline.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Recidivist said:

SeanT said:

dugarbandier said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

what industries should we be in?

This is the most pointless argument. The government has already agreed that we will need seasonal workers in agriculture, post Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/british-farmers-will-have-access-migrant-workers-brexit-andrea/

The fruit will not rot.

And this will satisfy Brexit voters who thought they were keeping foreigners out?

No they didn't, you must have missed that the campaign was "Take Back Control".

I know you don't live here, so it is understandable you missed this.

No I didnt miss it. I also didn't miss that Leave.EU wasn't the official campaign, I assume that slipped your memory

If we're talking about Vote Leave, then you missed this as well then, not living in the UK?

Remain really missed a trick not showing a huge 'global Brexit' arrow pointing from the rest of the world to the UK and listing scary population figures.

Having been decisively routed twice, the Corbyn-sceptics have decided that discretion is the better part of valour. In the leader’s inner circle, meanwhile, there is no desire to attempt a risky transfer of power.

“What’s the alternative?” one loyalist says. “Jeremy resigns and Tom Watson takes over?” The fear is that if Corbyn steps down, Watson would hold on to the post of acting leader for an indefinite period, using the powers of his office to purge the left and re-establish control of the party machinery.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/why-some-tory-backbenchers-secretly-wish-jeremy-corbyn-was-getting-better

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Recidivist said:

SeanT said:

dugarbandier said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? If the facts are as reported, fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

what industries should we be in?

This is the most pointless argument. The government has already agreed that we will need seasonal workers in agriculture, post Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/04/british-farmers-will-have-access-migrant-workers-brexit-andrea/

The fruit will not rot.

And this will satisfy Brexit voters who thought they were keeping foreigners out?

No they didn't, you must have missed that the campaign was "Take Back Control".

I know you don't live here, so it is understandable you missed this.

No I didnt miss it. I also didn't miss that Leave.EU wasn't the official campaign, I assume that slipped your memory

If we're talking about Vote Leave, then you missed this as well then, not living in the UK?

Remain really missed a trick not showing a huge 'global Brexit' arrow pointing from the rest of the world to the UK and listing scary population figures.

None of whom will have a right of settlement or residence unless we choose to issue one. At the moment anyone from anywhere in the EU, any scientist, any engineer, any craftsman, any labourer, any criminal, any vagrant, can move to the UK, settle, and claim rights and benefits. Post-BrExit, if we need short term workers, we issues short term visas, if we want people will particular skills to settle, we offer them settlement visa, if they commit crimes we put them on the plane back to where they came from. We take control. Parliament approved it by 494 votes to 122

Manchester Evening News on Salford By-Election.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/conservatives-win-kersal-salford-election-12687357

Switch to 3 weekly bin collections, apathy, The Media, & Brexit all to blame but not the dear leader.

Animal_pb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Ok,one criticism (whilst acknowledging my agreement with everyone else that this is an excellent article). The article acknowledges that a serious, moderate candidate needs to be put to the membership, and the flaky left wingers ignored. But now the genie is out of the bottle, and the gulf between the party membership and the PLP exposed, how does the new, sensible leader deal with the opposite crisis of legitimacy - rather than a leader without the support of the PLP, you now have a leader without the implied support of the main electorate? How does this circle get squared?

By striking at the optimal time, as a general election approaches, it focuses minds.

The Tory members didn't rebel or complain when the Parliamentary party toppled IDS and didn't even have an election.

That said, as much as I criticise David Davis, he put the party first in 2003, do potential Labour contenders have that level of discipline.

Yes, but those same Tory members were in the main pretty content to be swapping one useless but ideologically sound leader for someone sound but more competent. It's a different issue for the Labour faithful; they're swapping incompetent but sound for (possibly) competent but ideologically unpalatable. Memories of Tony Blair are still fresh for them, remember.

They might have to go one step at a time. McDonnell next (ideologically sound, competent, unelectable), then when they crashes and burns the have a problem, who is ideologically sound and electable, none of the existing "senior figures", too much baggage, will either have to row back a bit on the ideology and pick someone like Cooper, or more likely risk it all on one of the bright young things of the left, and hope like hell that they dont turn out to be an overpromoted disaster.

Belfast North


DUP Democratic Unionist Party 32.1 (-2.9)
SF Sinn Féin 29.4 (+2.9)
SDLP SDLP 13.1 (+2.5)
APNI Alliance Party 8.4 (+1.4)
UUP Ulster Unionist Party 5.8
OTH OTHERS 11.2

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Question re English for Uber drivers...how do they pass the driving test, now it has a practical and written component if they don't speak English?

They passed ages ago and never bothered learning English.

Hasn't the written part been in the place for 20 years now? If it is true that we have significant numbers of people who have lived here for more than 20 years and still don't speak English well enough to be able to communicate in a very limited setting, it is shows a wider problem than Uber taxi drivers.

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

#NIreland (33% counted)
#DUP: 27% (-2)
#SF: 27% (+3)
#UUP: 14% (+1)
#SDLP: 12%
#A: 9% (+2)
#TUV: 3% (-1)
#Green: 3%
#PbP: 1% (-1) #AE17

Apparently.

If it is tied between the DUP and SF that means neither will give an inch to the other and a UUP + SDLP + Alliance deal is not impossible with Mike Nesbitt as First Minister

I don't think that's possible, is it? Doesn't the Stormont House agreement reserve the FM/DFM positions for the largest party in each of the two respective sections?

Maybe but given SF will not accept Arlene Foster and the DUP will not get rid of her it may be the only way out of the impasse and would keep Unionist and Nationalist power sharing and add in the Alliance too

Get well soon Mr Smithson.

Looking OK

Philip McGuigan (SF) @ 8/15 North Antrim £63.47
Jemma Dolan (SF) @ 15/8 Fermanagh and South Tyrone £22.85

Neutral/Looking ok value

Nichola Mallon (SDLP) @ evens Belfast North £21.58
John Stewart (UUP) @ 2/1 East Antrim £11.00
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) @ 11/2 Upper Bann £8.03

In trouble/Lost

Sandra Overend (UUP) @ evens £42.73
William McCandless (UUP) @ 33/1 East Derry/Londonderry £1.69
John Stewart (UUP) @ 2/1 East Antrim £11.00
Alex Attwood (SDLP) @ 7/2 Belfast West £12.27

! Danny Kennedy (UUP) @ 3/10 Newry and Armagh £63.47 ! Oof

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Ok,one criticism (whilst acknowledging my agreement with everyone else that this is an excellent article). The article acknowledges that a serious, moderate candidate needs to be put to the membership, and the flaky left wingers ignored. But now the genie is out of the bottle, and the gulf between the party membership and the PLP exposed, how does the new, sensible leader deal with the opposite crisis of legitimacy - rather than a leader without the support of the PLP, you now have a leader without the implied support of the main electorate? How does this circle get squared?

By striking at the optimal time, as a general election approaches, it focuses minds.

The Tory members didn't rebel or complain when the Parliamentary party toppled IDS and didn't even have an election.

That said, as much as I criticise David Davis, he put the party first in 2003, do potential Labour contenders have that level of discipline.

As a coda to this: if Cameron had, in 2005, admitted that when push came to shove he would always support membership of the EU, Davis would have won (and I say this as someone who supported DC). Our party has red lines, too.

ThreeQuidder said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ThreeQuidder said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Question re English for Uber drivers...how do they pass the driving test, now it has a practical and written component if they don't speak English?

They come in with a DVLA-acceptable driving licence issued in a different country?

I thought after only a few years you have to get tested in this country?

After 12 months for some foreign countries but not all. Some foreign countries' licenses can be used to drive in the UK until age 70.

That seems wrong (by that I don't mean you are wrong, I mean the law is wrong).

williamglenn said:

Fishing said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.

You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?

Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?

Yes. Don't you?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

Kind of on topic, can anyone access this link? If so, please feel free to read and criticise. If not, please let me know. I can't open it myself (though I do know what it should say).

http://totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-labour-moderates-should-consider-second-leadership-challenge

Ok,one criticism (whilst acknowledging my agreement with everyone else that this is an excellent article). The article acknowledges that a serious, moderate candidate needs to be put to the membership, and the flaky left wingers ignored. But now the genie is out of the bottle, and the gulf between the party membership and the PLP exposed, how does the new, sensible leader deal with the opposite crisis of legitimacy - rather than a leader without the support of the PLP, you now have a leader without the implied support of the main electorate? How does this circle get squared?

By striking at the optimal time, as a general election approaches, it focuses minds.

The Tory members didn't rebel or complain when the Parliamentary party toppled IDS and didn't even have an election.

That said, as much as I criticise David Davis, he put the party first in 2003, do potential Labour contenders have that level of discipline.

That was because IDS was replaced as leader by Michael Howard who was just as rightwing and ran the 2005 campaign almost entirely on a platform opposing immigration

Mr. Cyan, my French is almost as ropey as Mr. Eagles' grasp of history, but are you saying: je ne regrette que Fillon?

Edited extra bit: speaking of which, my next book is Josephus' Jewish War. Rather looking forward to it. Four hundred pages and small print.

It's been a particularly dirty campaign against Danny Kennedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Well in fairness even some leavers on here, myself included, criticised that sort of thing. But it clearly resonated with people and I think it will be harder to accomodate those it did appeal to than some think.

What really boiled my piss about that poster was the inference that it was sort nasty EU plot to widen the EC/EU.

It has been British policy since Thatcher to widen membership of the EC/EU.

Like the Single Market, it was testament to success of British influence within the EU.

But not a policy (EU enlargement) that the British people had ever supported in advance, and one they clearly opposed with hindsight.

The fact the British elite may have pushed it seems neither here nor there.

Indeed one of the many democratic boons of Brexit will be reduced ability for British elites to pursue policies isolated from proper control by Parliament.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

It's been a particularly dirty campaign against Danny Kennedy

How much did Paddy let you have on him ? ^^;;

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blimey

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/837680288364957697

Golly, surely that would be a big symbolic moment?

Has there been any analysis of the NI election through the Brexit lens? I'm guessing it must have had some effect.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Well in fairness even some leavers on here, myself included, criticised that sort of thing. But it clearly resonated with people and I think it will be harder to accomodate those it did appeal to than some think.

What really boiled my piss about that poster was the inference that it was sort nasty EU plot to widen the EC/EU.

It has been British policy since Thatcher to widen membership of the EC/EU.

Like the Single Market, it was testament to success of British influence within the EU.

That's a little disingenuous. We supported widening membership because we thought it would kill off deepening political integration. Unfortunately, it didn't seem to work out that way.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cyan, my French is almost as ropey as Mr. Eagles' grasp of history, but are you saying: je ne regrette que Fillon?

I'm not saying it. I'm on Le Pen with interests too in Hamon and Dupont-Aignan. But according to that story some of the locally elected representatives who nominated Fillon (well, at least one) are expressing regret about backing him. I don't know whether they are allowed to withdraw their nominations.

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blimey

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/837680288364957697

Golly, surely that would be a big symbolic moment?

Has there been any analysis of the NI election through the Brexit lens? I'm guessing it must have had some effect.

Most likely the DUP and SF end up tied, UUP and Alliance close for third and SDLP fifth. That still means deadlock between DUP and SF and of course the SDLP was very pro Remain so I don't think Brexit came much into it more people fed up with DUP and Arlene Foster

Mr. Pulpstar, if so, I may hedge a smidgen (48, but I've got scope to do that).