politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to Juppe comes to an end
Both Fillon and Macron move up in the French President betting following Fillon statement that he's staying in race. pic.twitter.com/60j5cASg4h
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First0
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Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).0
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FPT rows over computer games, it's another example of how some people (especially Americans) want to politicise everything that people do.0
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The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Fillon: ‘Never give up, never surrender – and keep employing the wife’...0
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Sixième
Edit: or not0 -
Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?0
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TDE... You have mail and a picture..
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They were all there applauding him.Morris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
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Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Mr. Glenn, IDS got lots of ovations when he turned up the volume.0
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If they wait until he gets questioned on 15 March, it will be a logistical nightmare to post 500 nominations for a replacement by 17 March.Morris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
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If he falls further and Hamon overtakes him in a poll or two maybe but that is unlikely as long as he remains around 20% he has a slim chance of making the runoffMorris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
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Macronwards and Macrupwards, then.0
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I agree about Le Pen being one ISIS attack from the presidency. I remain convinced she will win, but I now win more on bets with Fillon or Juppe.HYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/836912859007369218SquareRoot said:TDE... You have mail and a picture..
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But faces a similar 'low ceiling' problem. Her best outcome is mass abstentions on the other side. That's certainly possible but I think her odds are too short right now.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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You're not normally so understated!HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Yes she is certainly closer than the FN has ever been before to national powerrottenborough said:
I agree about Le Pen being one ISIS attack from the presidency. I remain convinced she will win, but I now win more on bets with Fillon or Juppe.HYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
When have UKIP ever polled over 40% though as some polls have Le Pen doing now?david_herdson said:
But faces a similar 'low ceiling' problem. Her best outcome is mass abstentions on the other side. That's certainly possible but I think her odds are too short right now.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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But she doesn't have a VC or a peerage ?HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Made a tidy £65 profit off the Juppe surge this morning. He was available at the crazy odds of 460 on Monday.
So I'm happy.0 -
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:0 -
Her father got 18% in 2002. She could get 40-45%.HYUFD said:
Yes she is certainly closer than the FN has ever been before to national powerrottenborough said:
I agree about Le Pen being one ISIS attack from the presidency. I remain convinced she will win, but I now win more on bets with Fillon or Juppe.HYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
But there is still chance for her to follow in his footsteps and raise a victory flag over the Reichstag.AlsoIndigo said:
But she doesn't have a VC or a peerage ?HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Sod all of you and your pea green french books.
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Only 53% of the Labour VI, and 31% of the Labour 2015 voters think that Corbyn would make the best PM!Scott_P said:0 -
Those are 2nd round polls though, a bit like a forced choice between Lib Dem and UKIP.HYUFD said:
When have UKIP ever polled over 40% though as some polls have Le Pen doing now?david_herdson said:
But faces a similar 'low ceiling' problem. Her best outcome is mass abstentions on the other side. That's certainly possible but I think her odds are too short right now.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.0 -
I never expected to see the day where the Conservatives led Labour by 7% on unemployment.AlsoIndigo said:
Only 53% of the Labour VI, and 31% of the Labour 2015 voters think that Corbyn would make the best PM!Scott_P said:0 -
A statement for which the sentence "damned with faint praise" is surely most apt.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Even made a few squids laying off on Sarko and Baroin.Pulpstar said:Sod all of you and your pea green french books.
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Re Trump, I remember back when May was the first world leader to meet him and there were comments about him looking presidential then. Shortly after that of course, you had the terrible implementation of the EO which threw that narrative out of the way.0
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95% of the Conservative VI think that TM will be the best PM, only just over half the Labour VI think Corbyn will, and even 11% of the Labour VI think that TM will be the best PM!The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z1elxz48n9/TimesResults_170228_VI_Trackers_W.pdf (Page 3)0 -
Chortle ....AlsoIndigo said:
But she doesn't have a VC or a peerage ?HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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Tessy really can't do humour.0
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Even on 1st round polling the only time UKIP got close to what Le Pen is currently polling is the 2014 European elections not in general election pollsEssexit said:
Those are 2nd round polls though, a bit like a forced choice between Lib Dem and UKIP.HYUFD said:
When have UKIP ever polled over 40% though as some polls have Le Pen doing now?david_herdson said:
But faces a similar 'low ceiling' problem. Her best outcome is mass abstentions on the other side. That's certainly possible but I think her odds are too short right now.HYUFD said:
Le Pen is a more charismatic and effective campaigner than NuttallPulpstar said:
Didn't you ask the same about UKIP in Stoke @ 3-1 ?Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
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All Corbyn has to win over all 36% of those 36% of don't knows - and he is back in the game. Simple.AlsoIndigo said:
Only 53% of the Labour VI, and 31% of the Labour 2015 voters think that Corbyn would make the best PM!Scott_P said:0 -
Yes no matter what happens she will more than double her father's runoff totalSean_F said:
Her father got 18% in 2002. She could get 40-45%.HYUFD said:
Yes she is certainly closer than the FN has ever been before to national powerrottenborough said:
I agree about Le Pen being one ISIS attack from the presidency. I remain convinced she will win, but I now win more on bets with Fillon or Juppe.HYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Same question - what do you think that Don't Know score was a month or two away from the last election. Don't look. Go with your gut feeling.MarqueeMark said:
All Corbyn has to win over all 36% of those 36% of don't knows - and he is back in the game. Simple.AlsoIndigo said:
Only 53% of the Labour VI, and 31% of the Labour 2015 voters think that Corbyn would make the best PM!Scott_P said:0 -
Going with my gut feeling I'd say Cameron had a lead on Miliband. However the lead was nowhere near as big as it is now with May and Corbyn. DKs I think would have also been a lot less.BannedInParis said:
How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.0 -
I'm talking about the Don't Know score. Put a number on it.The_Apocalypse said:
Going with my gut feeling I'd say Cameron had a lead on Miliband. However the lead was nowhere near as big as it is now with May and Corbyn. DKs I think would have also been a lot less.BannedInParis said:
How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.0 -
Mr. T, what's Macron like on terrorism?
Sometimes, people want a harsh ruler.0 -
Macron £65.49tlg86 said:
Macron +480Pulpstar said:Sod all of you and your pea green french books.
Fillon +200
Baroin +80
Everyone else -55
Marine Le Pen £277.25
Francois Fillon £99.14
Alain Juppe -£243.58
Francois Baroin £22,584.23
Field -£370.71
The Baroin position was acquired [much of it at 500.0] in the immediate aftermath of Fillon's speech!0 -
Gonna be funny when the FBI re-open an investigation into Fillon in the closing days of the race......0
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Emily Thornberry seems to get under Theresa May's skin. Another low blow from TM today.0
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Conservatives rating May as best PM isn't that surprising. We've also known that there are a sizeable amount of Labour voters who don't mind her either. The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs. It's very easy for May right now because the opposition parties all have terrible leaders with the exception of the SNP who only put up Parliamentary candidates in Scotland anyway.AlsoIndigo said:
95% of the Conservative VI think that TM will be the best PM, only just over half the Labour VI think Corbyn will, and even 11% of the Labour VI think that TM will be the best PM!The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z1elxz48n9/TimesResults_170228_VI_Trackers_W.pdf (Page 3)
@MarqueeMark I don't believe that I said that Corbyn only had to win over the 36% of DKs.
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15%.BannedInParis said:
I'm talking about the Don't Know score. Put a number on it.The_Apocalypse said:
Going with my gut feeling I'd say Cameron had a lead on Miliband. However the lead was nowhere near as big as it is now with May and Corbyn. DKs I think would have also been a lot less.BannedInParis said:
How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.0 -
Latest yougov - conservatives +17%0
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?williamglenn said:Another low blow from TM today.
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I think it is probably quite close to the number of those who didn't vote?BannedInParis said:
Same question - what do you think that Don't Know score was a month or two away from the last election. Don't look. Go with your gut feeling.MarqueeMark said:
All Corbyn has to win over all 36% of those 36% of don't knows - and he is back in the game. Simple.AlsoIndigo said:
Only 53% of the Labour VI, and 31% of the Labour 2015 voters think that Corbyn would make the best PM!Scott_P said:0 -
Fillon - OOOPPPS - Off to see the police in a few weeks.
Again .....0 -
Cheers.The_Apocalypse said:
15%.BannedInParis said:
I'm talking about the Don't Know score. Put a number on it.The_Apocalypse said:
Going with my gut feeling I'd say Cameron had a lead on Miliband. However the lead was nowhere near as big as it is now with May and Corbyn. DKs I think would have also been a lot less.BannedInParis said:
How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.
In the YouGov polling of April 22nd 2015, the last one I can find before the election, the don't know score on that exact question was 27 %.
In the January before the election, it was 39%.
Full tables can be found here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7rj2tjjm1c/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-050515.pdf
Don't Know at 36 % is entirely consistent with this question as it was answered for the 2010-2015 parliament.
Editors - I am happy to do a post on this sort of thing. Government approval is always negative. Opposition leadership ratings - when they're gone, they're gone.0 -
"...from her usual sedentary position."CarlottaVance said:
?williamglenn said:Another low blow from TM today.
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It does seem problematic wherein there may be genuine examples, even in this case, where a lot of people would be sympathetic and think the policies should be different, but the framing has to make it seem even worse than it is.SeanT said:Another example of the Clennell case as Fake News
"deported after 30 years in UK"
https://www.channel4.com/news/grandmother-deported-after-30-years-in-uk
I don't know the answer to that issue though - as you say it happens on left and right, and they do it because we like it, on the whole.0 -
Thank you. But it has taken a lot of hard work over the past few months, my hoped for profit will probably work out at a rate less than the hourly minimum wage!Tissue_Price said:0 -
Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.SeanT said:FPT
Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."
This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.
It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.
Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.0 -
That quote about lies spreading around the world before the truth can gets its pants on....SeanT said:Another example of the Clennell case as Fake News
"deported after 30 years in UK"
https://www.channel4.com/news/grandmother-deported-after-30-years-in-uk
CH4 have form on this kind of issue. I remember them doing a big story on an academic who allegedly had been refused entry to work in the UK due to tougher immigration laws...which turned out to be total horses##t. Even the most simple googling showed it wasn't true.0 -
Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
No love for Plaid Cymru?The_Apocalypse said:
Conservatives rating May as best PM isn't that surprising. We've also known that there are a sizeable amount of Labour voters who don't mind her either. The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs. It's very easy for May right now because the opposition parties all have terrible leaders with the exception of the SNP who only put up Parliamentary candidates in Scotland anyway.AlsoIndigo said:
95% of the Conservative VI think that TM will be the best PM, only just over half the Labour VI think Corbyn will, and even 11% of the Labour VI think that TM will be the best PM!The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z1elxz48n9/TimesResults_170228_VI_Trackers_W.pdf (Page 3)
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"The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs."
Miliband never once beat DKs in this tracker for 5 whole years.-1 -
Yes but if the other half plus 1% votes for her then she wins the presidency!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Hell, Cameron didn't until 2015.0
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https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/836898606502268928
April 23rd will that mean a white flag with a red cross?-1 -
The populist and nationalist right certainlySeanT said:
She will thus move La Fenetre Overton very sharply to the right.HYUFD said:
Yes no matter what happens she will more than double her father's runoff totalSean_F said:
Her father got 18% in 2002. She could get 40-45%.HYUFD said:
Yes she is certainly closer than the FN has ever been before to national powerrottenborough said:
I agree about Le Pen being one ISIS attack from the presidency. I remain convinced she will win, but I now win more on bets with Fillon or Juppe.HYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:
The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit0 -
But as I said, there is probably a large correlation between the Don't Knows and the Do Not Votes. If you haven't got an opinion about Corbyn after him being leader for 18 months, you probably aren't very connected to politics...BannedInParis said:"The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs."
Miliband never once beat DKs in this tracker for 5 whole years.0 -
Why is that a low blow? If Lady Nugee has something to say, she should get to her feet and say it.williamglenn said:
"...from her usual sedentary position."CarlottaVance said:
?williamglenn said:Another low blow from TM today.
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Wow.BannedInParis said:
Cheers.The_Apocalypse said:
15%.BannedInParis said:
I'm talking about the Don't Know score. Put a number on it.The_Apocalypse said:
Going with my gut feeling I'd say Cameron had a lead on Miliband. However the lead was nowhere near as big as it is now with May and Corbyn. DKs I think would have also been a lot less.BannedInParis said:
How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.
In the YouGov polling of April 22nd 2015, the last one I can find before the election, the don't know score on that exact question was 27 %.
In the January before the election, it was 39%.
Full tables can be found here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7rj2tjjm1c/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-050515.pdf
Don't Know at 36 % is entirely consistent with this question as it was answered for the 2010-2015 parliament.
Editors - I am happy to do a post on this sort of thing. Government approval is always negative. Opposition leadership ratings - when they're gone, they're gone.
Goes to show how bad Ed Miliband was!
I'd be very interested to read a post by yourself on this topic.0 -
All it would take is for one polling company to have the nous to run a poll asking how people would vote if Juppe replaces Fillon. I think Juppe would lead Le Pen by around 5 per cent and it would cause Fillon's party to seriously consider putting even more pressure on Fillon to withdraw.HYUFD said:
If he falls further and Hamon overtakes him in a poll or two maybe but that is unlikely as long as he remains around 20% he has a slim chance of making the runoffMorris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
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One of the amusing consequences of Jezza as LotO has been the move to irrelevance of Polly on party politics. She can still write up a storm on the EU and Brexit but her Lab utterings and urgings have become wholly irrelevant to her audience.Stark_Dawning said:
Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.SeanT said:FPT
Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."
This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.
It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.
Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.0 -
@BannedInParis Yeah, and he was terrible as well!0
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Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.CarlottaVance said:I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:
The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit0 -
I think now having lost the primary Juppe would still trail Le Pen but would eat into Macron's support, if anyone is now the Hillary candidate in this race to Le Pen's Trump it would be Juppe.BudG said:
All it would take is for one polling company to have the nous to run a poll asking how people would vote if Juppe replaces Fillon. I think Juppe would lead Le Pen by around 5 per cent and it would cause Fillon's party to seriously consider putting even more pressure on Fillon to withdraw.HYUFD said:
If he falls further and Hamon overtakes him in a poll or two maybe but that is unlikely as long as he remains around 20% he has a slim chance of making the runoffMorris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
0 -
I’ve been meaning to ask – Do the French have an equivalent British Polling Council (BPC) ?0
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Agree - it hasn't been consumed by the Brexit madness that seems to be afflicting others on both sides of the case.SeanT said:
Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better.Stark_Dawning said:
Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.SeanT said:FPT
Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."
This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.
It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.
Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.0 -
I think its more that an answer of Don't Know on that question is a lot higher than people would imagine.The_Apocalypse said:@BannedInParis Yeah, and he was terrible as well!
0 -
It's more that there are some figures that get hung up as "XXX shows this man is bad/good", but if you look at the whole spread of the data rather than this month's figures, there's more - or indeed, less - to it than that. Especially in the trackers where you have *years* of data.The_Apocalypse said:
Wow.BannedInParis said:
Cheers.The_Apocalypse said:
15%.BannedInParis said:
I'm talking about the Don't Know score. Put a number on it.The_Apocalypse said:
Going with my gut feeling I'd say Cameron had a lead on Miliband. However the lead was nowhere near as big as it is now with May and Corbyn. DKs I think would have also been a lot less.BannedInParis said:
How do you think that compares to Cameron and Miliband say, 6 months before 2015 GE.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
Don't look.
Go with your gut feeling.
In the YouGov polling of April 22nd 2015, the last one I can find before the election, the don't know score on that exact question was 27 %.
In the January before the election, it was 39%.
Full tables can be found here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7rj2tjjm1c/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-050515.pdf
Don't Know at 36 % is entirely consistent with this question as it was answered for the 2010-2015 parliament.
Editors - I am happy to do a post on this sort of thing. Government approval is always negative. Opposition leadership ratings - when they're gone, they're gone.
Goes to show how bad Ed Miliband was!
I'd be very interested to read a post by yourself on this topic.0 -
I concur. For all its faults, the Guardian does appear to have found a happy medium between the Express and the Independent on all matters Brexit.CarlottaVance said:
Agree - it hasn't been consumed by the Brexit madness that seems to be afflicting others on both sides of the case.SeanT said:
Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better.Stark_Dawning said:
Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.SeanT said:FPT
Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."
This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.
It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.
Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.0 -
Although the FN has done very poorly relative to its opinion poll rating in the recent past (see 2015), which is the complete opposite of most nationalist parties in Europe.AlsoIndigo said:
Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Which proves what?BannedInParis said:"The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs."
Miliband never once beat DKs in this tracker for 5 whole years.0 -
But these people are asked and do answer the other questions in the poll.MarqueeMark said:
But as I said, there is probably a large correlation between the Don't Knows and the Do Not Votes. If you haven't got an opinion about Corbyn after him being leader for 18 months, you probably aren't very connected to politics...BannedInParis said:"The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs."
Miliband never once beat DKs in this tracker for 5 whole years.
See: http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/p724i3euyc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220415.pdf#page=2
There's 11 % don't know on the headline figure, it's just usually factored out.0 -
Don't read too much into 36 % Don't Know, or that it's higher than Corbyn; See the first comment ""The whole point is that Corbyn is ***even*** being out polled by DKs.""OldKingCole said:
Which proves what?BannedInParis said:"The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs."
Miliband never once beat DKs in this tracker for 5 whole years.
This was my initial point at the start of this.0 -
PM'd you.rcs1000 said:
Although the FN has done very poorly relative to its opinion poll rating in the recent past (see 2015), which is the complete opposite of most nationalist parties in Europe.AlsoIndigo said:
Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Possibly because unlike in other EU countries FN is more a party of the young voter, whereas UKIP/AFD etc tend to have their vote concentrated in older voters, and as we all know, younger voters fill in online polls but can't be bothered to vote.rcs1000 said:
Although the FN has done very poorly relative to its opinion poll rating in the recent past (see 2015), which is the complete opposite of most nationalist parties in Europe.AlsoIndigo said:
Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Doesn't this fake news nonsense show there will always be a place for quality journalists?SeanT said:
Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better. This case is an example: their headline was "woman married to Brit for 27 years is deported" etc etc. Which is clearly emotive, but also factually correct.Stark_Dawning said:
Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.SeanT said:FPT
Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."
This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.
It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.
Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.
They didn't go the Buzzfeed, Indy route.
The most alarming example of Fake News in this case is perhaps Channel 4 news. Their headline is from two days ago. They don't even have the excuse of making a mistake as a story was just emerging. It was already known weeks ago that she'd spent most of the last 30 years in Singapore.
Yet they still went with the Fake News clickbaity bullshit. And this from a news company which prides itself on "fact-checking".
The betting industry has gone the same way now that it is easy to make prices because of Betfair, but the crap traders still get shown up for what they are (Me in Stoke for instance!)0 -
Juppe, being much more centrist that Fillon, would lose votes to Le Pen in the first round, but gain them from Macron. My guess is that he'd trail Le Pen 30-25 in the first round, but be 5 points ahead of Macron.HYUFD said:
I think now having lost the primary Juppe would still trail Le Pen but would eat into Macron's support, if anyone is now the Hillary candidate in this race to Le Pen's Trump it would be Juppe.BudG said:
All it would take is for one polling company to have the nous to run a poll asking how people would vote if Juppe replaces Fillon. I think Juppe would lead Le Pen by around 5 per cent and it would cause Fillon's party to seriously consider putting even more pressure on Fillon to withdraw.HYUFD said:
If he falls further and Hamon overtakes him in a poll or two maybe but that is unlikely as long as he remains around 20% he has a slim chance of making the runoffMorris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
But it's all supposition. Right now Fillon is the candidate, and there is no clear way to eject him. And if they try, they risk shedding even more votes Macron's way through the inevitable loss of momentum that comes through in fighting.0 -
Even in 2015 the FN got 25% in the first round and Marine Le Pen polls better than her partyrcs1000 said:
Although the FN has done very poorly relative to its opinion poll rating in the recent past (see 2015), which is the complete opposite of most nationalist parties in Europe.AlsoIndigo said:
Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
Christ on a bike, no. God preserve us from a world where Leanne Wood has any power.kle4 said:
No love for Plaid Cymru?The_Apocalypse said:
Conservatives rating May as best PM isn't that surprising. We've also known that there are a sizeable amount of Labour voters who don't mind her either. The whole point is that Corbyn is even being out polled by DKs. It's very easy for May right now because the opposition parties all have terrible leaders with the exception of the SNP who only put up Parliamentary candidates in Scotland anyway.AlsoIndigo said:
95% of the Conservative VI think that TM will be the best PM, only just over half the Labour VI think Corbyn will, and even 11% of the Labour VI think that TM will be the best PM!The_Apocalypse said:
Don't Know being at 36% says it all. A sizeable portion of the public would like a credible opposition.Scott_P said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z1elxz48n9/TimesResults_170228_VI_Trackers_W.pdf (Page 3)0 -
Le Pen actually gets her strongest support from the middle aged, it is Macron who gets his highest support from the young and Fillon gets his biggest support from pensionersAlsoIndigo said:
Possibly because unlike in other EU countries FN is more a party of the young voter, whereas UKIP/AFD etc tend to have their vote concentrated in older voters, and as we all know, younger voters fill in online polls but can't be bothered to vote.rcs1000 said:
Although the FN has done very poorly relative to its opinion poll rating in the recent past (see 2015), which is the complete opposite of most nationalist parties in Europe.AlsoIndigo said:
Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!SeanT said:
It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FNHYUFD said:
Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le PenTheScreamingEagles said:
The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.Tissue_Price said:Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.
Cf Spain 20040 -
It's a bet on a Union that's survived several global wars over one that couldn't even stop massacres on its doorstep.kle4 said:
Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.CarlottaVance said:I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:
The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit
This is why a confrontation is so risky for the EU. If it tries to impose a punitive trade regime in order to compel Britain to accept the free movement of people – and thus a surrender of sovereignty – London will retaliate. The Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Prime Minister said this in no uncertain terms when they threatened to explore alternative tax regimes. This would be an asymmetrical struggle. On trade, the EU would at first have the upper hand; indeed, a trade war is just about the only thing that Brussels can wage effectively.
Unlike Greece, however, Britain cannot be forced to its knees by economic measures alone, and unlike Greece it would adapt and diversify. London would apply the considerable talents and resources of its various institutions to subverting the EU. The UK would be unable to uphold its security guarantees in Nato if those being protected were engaged in a vicious war against British livelihoods.0 -
It would only happen if Fillon resigned but agree on your first round totals with Juppercs1000 said:
Juppe, being much more centrist that Fillon, would lose votes to Le Pen in the first round, but gain them from Macron. My guess is that he'd trail Le Pen 30-25 in the first round, but be 5 points ahead of Macron.HYUFD said:
I think now having lost the primary Juppe would still trail Le Pen but would eat into Macron's support, if anyone is now the Hillary candidate in this race to Le Pen's Trump it would be Juppe.BudG said:
All it would take is for one polling company to have the nous to run a poll asking how people would vote if Juppe replaces Fillon. I think Juppe would lead Le Pen by around 5 per cent and it would cause Fillon's party to seriously consider putting even more pressure on Fillon to withdraw.HYUFD said:
If he falls further and Hamon overtakes him in a poll or two maybe but that is unlikely as long as he remains around 20% he has a slim chance of making the runoffMorris_Dancer said:Will Fillon's party put pressure on him to sod off?
But it's all supposition. Right now Fillon is the candidate, and there is no clear way to eject him. And if they try, they risk shedding even more votes Macron's way through the inevitable loss of momentum that comes through in fighting.0 -
He wins a trolling prize for this sentence:kle4 said:
Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.CarlottaVance said:I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:
The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit
The EU may be a club and it can make whatever rules it likes, but it should never forget that the Anglo-Americans own the freehold of the property on which the club is built.
On the whole a fanciful article based on a misreading of Trump combined with a rose-tinted view of the UK. The author clearly longs for the days when men, born in Dublin, like him could stand up at the despatch box and send gunboats to China.0 -
It's a perverse position for a Dubliner to take, that's for sure.CarlottaVance said:
It's a bet on a Union that's survived several global wars over one that couldn't even stop massacres on its doorstep.kle4 said:
Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.CarlottaVance said:I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:
The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit0
