politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we seeing the Tony Blair effect on BREXIT? Those saying LE
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we seeing the Tony Blair effect on BREXIT? Those saying LEAVE vote “wrong” now same as those saying “right”
I love trackers because the same question is asked in exactly the same way each time the question is put so and as PBers will know I’ve regularly report the above BREXIT finding from YouGov.
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Excellent trolling!
Its over!
Proposals for change often become more popular once passed. This one hasn't.
http://britainelects.com/2017/02/24/2017briefing-england/
Theresa May was a Remainer who has accepted the result, and she is now cast as a hardline Brexiteer on the back of it!
Give it a few years to try to negotiate a deal which is not too damaging.
Seriously though Mike, there's very little point in getting excited over MoE stuff.
You'll have to actually reply to me.
Of course, by then it will be too late to do anything about it.
Says nothing to me.
For instance, the current government's comments, whether intended for home consumption or not, have been very hostile to the EU. To remain in the EU we would need to change the character of the govt completely. How do you do that without an opposition? We have no broom with which to sweep clean.
Even if we did have a way of changing the govt, the EU would have to be delusional not to believe that the Brexiteers would never be re-elected so we would have to be "locked in" or else why have us back if we can leave again?
We have made our bed, now we have to lie in it...
You'd need more detailed polling to distinguish between 'I think it was wrong but should be implemented' and 'I think it was wrong and Parliament should overrule the plebs'. No doubt some of the latter category exist within Labour and the Tories, but they're probably strongest in the Liberal Democrats.
Oil is nowhere near $150 a barrel in Scotland as ' Scot Leave' promised in 2014 and the Scottish budget deficit is eye-watering.
Yet, who has changed their minds up there about Leave/Remain for the UK?
Hardly anybody. The same will apply with the EU independence vote.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiight...
I can see this is going to run and run. Firstly, I refer you to my rebuttal here (h ttp://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1450938/#Comment_1450938 ) which was based on Plato's original posting of this: h ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn5pIkEHPf0 . However I have now been informed of a better quality version (h ttp://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2014/03/07/exp-nr-vo-watson-russia-ukraine-ships.cnn ), which should put things to bed about the lack of fakery.
However, that's not answering your points. So secondly, let's go thru your points one by one...
"1. The reporter's voice is quite clearly not being recorded on the prow of a boat...."
I disagree to the noise level, and refer you to the better quality video for examples of wind noise
"2. The waves near the bottom of the screen are way too close up...."
This assumes you know how big the waves are.
"...This effect is also evident when a seagull takes off - it would have to be the size of a elephant to appear that large from that distance..."
I can't speak to gulls from other countries, but North Anerican gulls have wingspans[2] of between 24inches (2ft) to 63 inches (5ft 3inches), with an average[1] of approximately 50inches (4ft 2). From the video the gull's wingspan is less than the distance between the reporter's elbows if outstretched (about 3-4ft).
"3. The motion of the water is having no impact on the boat that the reporter is being filmed on..."
Again, I refer you to the better quality video. The boat is plainly moving.
"...nor is the boat having an impact on the motion of the water..."
I don't know what you mean by this. Did you mean there's no obvious wash over the prow? I think you'd get that in more unsettled conditions, but not in these.
"4. The reporter makes no movement to compensate for the rise and fall of the water, beyond his initial legs akimbo stance."
I think you'd get that in more unsettled conditions, but not in these
"5. The reporter and his prow are brightly lit..."
I disagree with this. The lighting is consistent with an (partly?) overcast day during the daytime: lots of soft fill, no harsh shadows, with a degree of fill from the light deck below him. If the reporter was brightly lit as you suggest, we'd be seeing harsher shadows.
Given your previously professed beliefs (Russia had nothing to do with the airline shootdown, the Ukraine violence was caused by the EU somehow), I don't expect you to believe this. But I do tend to treat people literally (@PlatoSaid has criticised me for this wrt Trump) so I hope you understand I did you the compliment of treating your points seriously, if only to dismiss them
Notes
[1] It should be a weighted average, but I don't have frequencies, so...
[2] http://www.spwickstrom.com/seagull/
Good afternoon, everyone.
LOVE
HARRY
1) The flags on the shore (and on the warship) are well streamed out indicating about 20 - 25 kts of wind. The reporter's hair is well combed and not blowing around very much. His hair should be like the flags - horizontal.
2) Anyone who goes on to the foredeck of any boat I am in charge off will be wearing a PFD or else they can stay on the pontoon/wharf
3) The wake produced by the warship is not trivial yet the report's boat seems to yaw rather than roll. I know few sailors who would remain in that stance on a boat in windy, bouncy conditions. Sailors are called "hands" because you have one have hand for the work and one hand for working the boat.
Hurrah for Harry Kane.
Here many haven't - they've fought tooth and nail to frustrate the decision of the people. In itself this has legitimized people not changing their mind
If it had been 52/48 the other way I guess more people would have accepted no Brexit, but UKIP would be winning Stoke (I have accepted that loss!)
It's very similar to the 2004 Iraq invasion. I knew from the off that there was little prospect of success because the assumptions behind it were highly doubtful. But once you declare war you can't undeclare it. You have to go through with it. Iraq turned out pretty much as I expected, incidentally, including not finding significant WMD. I did think other countries might take advantage of Iraq's subsequent weakness and balkanise it. In fact it was a non-state organisation that piled in.
PB does have a pro Spurs bias in this thread writers too with Keiran and Southam.
So, fancy selling Harry Kane to us in exchange for Daniel Sturridge.
We'll even take Sissoko off your hands too.
£35 million for Carroll and £30 million for Sissoko, Newcastle are rather good at the sales.
1) The flag on shore and on the ship are at much higher levels, and the ship is moving. And the reporter's hair does move: for instance a great deal at about ten seconds in. Other, smaller movements are hidden by artifacting in the distance shots, although something can be seen at about 2m40.
2) well, yes.
3) I'd bow to your superior knowledge. To my inexpert view it seems reasonable; given the angle of the reporter's boat to the wake coming off the ship when it hits.
BTW, my profile piccie is of me eating breakfast on the bowsprit of the Jeanie Johnston.
The only people interested in keeping the argument alive are those who cant handle the fact they lost. Funnily enough, they are the people who had it their own way for the last generation, while dismissing the concerns of anyone not in their clique.
Remainers/Remoaners/Refusers are wearing the clothes of the people they used to mock
1) The flags on the shore (and on the warship) are well streamed out indicating about 20 - 25 kts of wind.
I can't see flags on shore. As for flags on the warship, you'd have to take its speed into account.
The reporter's hair is well combed and not blowing around very much. His hair should be like the flags - horizontal.
I don't think the wind and boat speed would result in the effect you describe. However, if I am wrong...well, there's always hairspray
2) Anyone who goes on to the foredeck of any boat I am in charge off will be wearing a PFD or else they can stay on the pontoon/wharf
Fair point, but we are not debating whether the reporter is safe, we are debating whether he is present.
3) The wake produced by the warship is not trivial yet the report's boat seems to yaw rather than roll. I know few sailors who would remain in that stance on a boat in windy, bouncy conditions. Sailors are called "hands" because you have one have hand for the work and one hand for working the boat.
I initially thought that, but I thought the yaw was produced by the boat driver (wrong word?...
Here's an interesting one for SeanT:
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/835549939904221184/photo/1
Betstars are offering 100/1 on Jeremy Hunt as next PM
https://www.betstars.uk/#/specials/outrights/4007331
For you, on the other hand, acknowledging that CNN green-screened this ludicrous footage would shatter your world view. So you pull together a daft 'rebuttal' to try to convince everyone (even yourself?) that it didn't happen.
The camera is filming the reporter from an elevated and distant position. The reporter himself is again, elevated and distant from the surface of the water. The gull should therefore be little more than a pin-prick. The fact that it's as large as life in the film makes it very clear this is a composite. But do go ahead and continue to disbelieve your own eyes because CNN would never lie to you.
Perhaps someone who threw a huge hissy fit when things didn't go their way?
In any case, more than enough to blow hair around unless he has glued it with a can of Harmony No.5 Extra Hold
We had a vote, Leave won
We had a PM who had fronted the Remain campaign, but had committed to seeing through the will of the people either way. He said that he would stay on as PM, and that people could rightly expect A50 to be triggered immediately.
He quit the day after
I don't think you need to look much further for someone to blame.
As it is who is in charge? Nigel Farage? Boris Johnson? Michael Gove? Andrea Leadsome???
Nope, a remainer who oversaw a catastrophic rise in immigration for the last 6 years.
It was all in remainers hands, Cameron could have implemented the result how he saw fit but chose not to. It's your (Remain's) people in charge and the leave side accepted this.
UKIP seem a busted flush, they still have no influence. Every leader is a Remainer! We SHOULD be moaning and sceptical
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/835857888035893249
"The gull should therefore be little more than a pin-prick."
I'd love to see the maths that makes you think that. But to do that, we'd need to identify the type of boat he's on.
http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Dead-Centre-British-politics4_lr.pdf
' For Labour, the task seems harder, even without taking into account its ongoing troubles regarding leadership. The groups in the centre, centre-left and left are smaller in aggregate terms and more fissiparous. In particular, the groups on the left are split in relation to immigration, with the Solidarity group of older and poorer voters at odds with the Progressives and Democratic Socialists.
The last time an enduring, successful electoral coalition was assembled from the centre-left was before the increase in immigration which took place in the mid-2000s, and one
wonders whether another can be put together while the issue of immigration retains its
current salience. '