politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won

MTimT said:

Pulpstar said:

DanSmith said:

notme said:

Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.

The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.

Would that be an indication they have given up hope?

No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)

Seems odd but it is the way they do things.

It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.

If you have the manpwoer just ring all your canvassed supporters during the afternoon and evening.

Pulpstar said:

Brom said:

Dixie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/834792383053172736

So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in Stoke

But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!

No. Neither has said that - I'd expect it to be the Tories 2nd at the moment but if they're both saying UKIP 3rd it probably means they haven't won.

Remember UKIP were useless in Oldham West & Royton most recently where they were expected to challenge.

They were never, ever going to win there. The people saying they expected a challenge were setting them up for a fall so they could write them off afterwards

FWIW I laid them at 8/1 there, and expect them to come at least close 2nd here

David_Evershed said:

MTimT said:

Pulpstar said:

DanSmith said:

notme said:

Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.

The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.

Would that be an indication they have given up hope?

No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)

Seems odd but it is the way they do things.

It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.

If you have the manpwoer just ring all your canvassed supporters during the afternoon and evening.

Outside of by elections it is normal to close down a committee room and move troops elsewhere if you are clearly losing a ward or if you think you have it sown up. How can you do that without tellers returns. Calling your own supporters tells you nothing about the opposition turnout. How does Labours teller policy deal with that?

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

justin124 said:

Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?

Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.

I was thinking more of the 4000 majority suggestion re-Copeland.

Turnout around 30,000 in Copeland maybe ?

So a 4000 majority would be around 13.5%. That'd be a 10% swing and if copied in Stoke results in a narrow win for the Tories there too !

justin124 said:

Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?

Its a reliable source:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/834792383053172736

Of course how good the info he's been given is another matter.....

Mortimer said:

I'm away from home - are the SPIN by election markets still suspended?

Apparently not.

Almost worth buying LD and Tory on the Stoke index...?

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?

Its a reliable source:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/834792383053172736

Of course how good the info he's been given is another matter.....

Tories and Lib Dems are both informed but reasonably disinterested parties so far as the UKIP/Lab dynamic goes in Stoke.
The Lib Dems won't want to say the Tories are second as they need to motivate their own vote to come out, and the Tories won't want to say because of expectation management. Saying UKIP is probably third suits both parties and is most likely true to the best of their knowledge.
The Lib Dem info in Richmond most recently was very good.

Mortimer said:

Mortimer said:

I'm away from home - are the SPIN by election markets still suspended?

Apparently not.

Almost worth buying LD and Tory on the Stoke index...?

Or selling UKIP in Copeland as I've just done - they're only 0.75, but really they're not going to come 1st or 2nd there.

There is no sense in not having tellers on Polling Stations if your opponents do. I have been party to research on this matter and it does affect the box by 10 to 15%. I know most if not every polling station in Copeland was going to have Conservative tellers through to at least 8 pm.

The LDs were saying yesterday it was a Con gain. The feeling among the Cons was that a lot of work had been done. Labour activists are confident and perhaps hopeful they will lose. (They don't all like the candidate.) One visiting Con councillor leafletter was annoyed he had been going around one of the bigger towns rather than more Tory areas. The LD mission is clear - do the groundwork for 2 or 3 county divisions near Keswick under cover from the by-election.

Who knows who will win but there is evidence of differential effort in the GOTV, Con and LD much stronger than Lab.

I've said Con gain since December and see no reason or concern to move away from that position. But I do not think 4,000 is remotely credible unless Labour are doing nothing at all.

Ummm...

@Olivianuzzi: Richard Spencer, asked if he likes rock music, says "Depeche Mode is the official band of the alt-right."

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.

However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.

Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.

Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.

(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)

8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.

Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.

It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.

I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.

You are quite right , Mr. J, I am confusing my ARM with my AMD - age you know.

It looks like I am going to be up your way on the week-end of 27-28th May, might you be around for a lunch or even an early evening drinkie?

That sounds like a spiffing idea. Shall I pencil it in?

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

John Looney (late of this parish) predicting Stoke as

Lab 7k Con 5k UKIP 4k LD 2k

on vote UK at

vote-2012.proboards.com

Lib-Dems NOT Winning Here if The Loony is correct!

Didn't Realize John Loony had decided to LEAVE PB BTW?



I'm sure he pops in every now and then, often at odd hours of the morning.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

justin124 said:

Pulpstar said:

justin124 said:

Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?

Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.

I was thinking more of the 4000 majority suggestion re-Copeland.

Turnout around 30,000 in Copeland maybe ?

So a 4000 majority would be around 13.5%. That'd be a 10% swing and if copied in Stoke results in a narrow win for the Tories there too !

Surely v different seats and dynamics?

The Lab-Tory swing 'gap' in Richmond Park vs Sleaford & North Hykeham was 8 or 4% whichever way you want to look at it. Copeland and Stoke are more similiar than those two seats were so a 10% swing to the Tories in Copeland definitely implies a positive swing to the Tories and probable second in Stoke.

Which is also rumoured.

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Labour win then and Corbyn stays??

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Stoke on Trent Update: - Tomorrow Paul Nuttall will be an MP*…!

(*missing person)

JosiasJessop said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.

However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.

Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.

Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.

(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)

8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.

Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.

It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.

I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.

You are quite right , Mr. J, I am confusing my ARM with my AMD - age you know.

It looks like I am going to be up your way on the week-end of 27-28th May, might you be around for a lunch or even an early evening drinkie?

That sounds like a spiffing idea. Shall I pencil it in?

Please do, Mr. J, and let me know which session suits you best. I have tickets for the airshow for both days and will, I hope, be staying with my niece, so whatever time suits you.

UKIP on the big betfair drift in Stoke.

4.1 - 4.9 now. Tories and Labour both benefitting.

LordWakefield said:

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.

Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.

Brom said:

LordWakefield said:

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.

Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.

His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........

TheWhiteRabbit said:

My predictions (for a bit of fun):

Copeland: Labour 32%, Tories 30%, LDs 15% and UKIP 13%
Stoke: Labour 32%, Tories 23%, UKIP 22%, LD 15%

Something for everyone there (except UKIP of course).

TudorRose said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

UKIP on the big betfair drift in Stoke.

4.1 - 4.9 now. Tories and Labour both benefitting.

All because of a tweet from a UKIP hating BBC journo!

Why are the BBC (including individual journalists) tweeting anything during election day? I thought they had a strict policy of 'no comment' while voting was going on.

Well George Eaton has definitely tweeted.

Nuttall's even coming a poor second in the Walter Mitty of the year contest.

https://www.ft.com/content/ce317948-efbb-11e6-930f-061b01e23655

Pulpstar said:

Brom said:

LordWakefield said:

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.

Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.

His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........

Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.

NickPalmer said:

MTimT said:

It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.

Yes, we still collect turnout information from the polling station, but not the stuff about "George Smith of 117 Acacia Road has voted" - it's mildly useful in the early hours, but when most people vote around 6 the data comes into the system too slowoly to be worthwhile, and tempts activists to try to perfect their data instead of getting out there.

In my patch, the other parties do the same.

And presumably to do it properly you'd need solid data on the postal votes as well nowadays? I think it is a bit of a shame though. The knocking up business does give activists a sense of purpose on polling day and something useful to do.

Absolutely love nights like tonight. Any ideas when we'll get first indications?

(A total long shot, but put some money on the tories in stoke as thought they were value)

Anyone have any early indications of who either of the by-elections are looking to swing to?

Latest French rolling poll from Ifop

Le Pen 26.5 No change

Macron 22.5 Up 3.5

Fillon 20.5 Up 1.5

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/23-02-2017.pdf

BudG said:

Latest French rolling poll from Ifop

Le Pen 26.5 No change

Macron 22.5 Up 3.5

Fillon 20.5 Up 1.5

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/23-02-2017.pdf

Bayrou boost as IFOP did include him. Macron takes the second place. Another bad poll for both Melenchon and Hamon.

Pulpstar said:

BudG said:

Latest French rolling poll from Ifop

Le Pen 25.5 No change

Macron 22.5 Up 3.5

Fillon 20.5 Up 1.5

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/23-02-2017.pdf

A very good poll for Macron - if he's only got a gap of 3 pts to overcome after R1 he must be nailed on for R2.

Sorry Le PEN WAS 26.5. I edited it within a few seconds. Didn't mean to mislead anyone.

But yes, a good poll for Macron, but still a long way to go.

Brom said:

Pulpstar said:

Brom said:

LordWakefield said:

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.

Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.

His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........

Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.

This.
It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

BudG said:

Latest French rolling poll from Ifop

Le Pen 25.5 No change

Macron 22.5 Up 3.5

Fillon 20.5 Up 1.5

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/23-02-2017.pdf

A very good poll for Macron - if he's only got a gap of 3 pts to overcome after R1 he must be nailed on for R2.

hmm

depends if people can be arsed to vote for him, he has the weakest support base of the lot

seems a bit of a gobshite

Winning round 2 was never Macron's problem, it's his battle against Fillon for second place in the first round.

quite

VI turnout for Fillon is stronger than for Macron

Always fun having an open position when Faisal gets going.

Pulpstar said:

rkrkrk said:

Brom said:

Pulpstar said:

Brom said:

LordWakefield said:

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.

Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.

His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........

Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.

This.
It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).

Yes but then you miss the fun of trying to watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.

This will be the time I keep topping up and the drift is real!

But after Trump, Brexit and Con Maj day of election drift, I am not buying the overheard conversations of partisan observers

HurstLlama said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

HurstLlama said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

Just for personal consumption officer...

Quite a clever place to do this.
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.

If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.

Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?

It's not heat that you need.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.

Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.

I doubt the economics and techniques of cannabis farms are an area of expertise to many posters on this site. Indeed, Mr.Pubgoer seems to be suspiciously knowledgeable.

Never personally HL
PBers have known many people.
I just seem to have known a few more rogues than most over the years.
Although I guess Sean T would probably lead the way in having known some dodgy geezers.

I am reassured, Mr. Pubgoer.

In the who has known most crooks stakes, I would put SeanT well down the list. Anyone who has worked in the City for any length of time is probably leading him by a length and a half and those that have worked in merchant banking are so far clear of the field that they are could probably have a competition amongst themselves. The supposedly stale area of insurance is not immune either. I know of one chap, who might still be alive so I am not going to name him, having been thrown out of Lloyds for corrupt and improper practice used to do deals out of his Rolls Royce parked around the corner.

I think I ought to win that competition! I did do my bit putting the perpetrator of Britain's biggest fraud in prison, after all.

And I meet dodgy geezers every day of the week.....

Miss Cyclefree, "And I meet dodgy geezers every day of the week....."

One hopes you're not referring to your fellow PBers

Morris_Dancer said:

North Korea says China is dancing to the tune of the US:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39067908

Chopsticks?

Recidivist said:

From what I'm hearing, a lot of people are going to be disappointed.

Two holds for Labour?

Recidivist said:

From what I'm hearing, a lot of people are going to be disappointed.

Well that is as oblique as you'll ever get.

I've consulted my goat entrails, and you'd be amazed but it completely validated my initial opinion that it will be two Labour holds. Dead cert.

What is Portuguese for Oh Shit?

https://twitter.com/itvfootball/status/834816917181435909

rkrkrk said:

John Boehner says republicans will not repeal and replace Obama care....

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/john-boehner-obamacare-republicans-235303

Unrelated, other than Trump is involved in both, but I don't expect Tillerson to last a year as Sec of State.

dr_spyn said:

What is Portuguese for Oh Shit?

https://twitter.com/itvfootball/status/834816917181435909

Phil Neville said on radio that there is no way Wayne would go to China. He has so many relatives and friends in the North West and he is a family person

rottenborough said:

rkrkrk said:

John Boehner says republicans will not repeal and replace Obama care....

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/john-boehner-obamacare-republicans-235303

Unrelated, other than Trump is involved in both, but I don't expect Tillerson to last a year as Sec of State.

Why don't you expect him to last?
You think he will quit?

Pulpstar said:

rkrkrk said:

Brom said:

Pulpstar said:

Brom said:

LordWakefield said:

Dixie said:

Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.

Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.

Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.

His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........

Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.

This.
It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).

Yes but then you miss the fun of watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.

Oh if you enjoy it... Don't let me spoil your fun!

So what should I spend my winnings on laying UKIP on?



Must read up on Proverbs 16:18 tonight.