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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn the

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    An issue is specialisms. If it's an 'ordinary' A&E trip; say a broken arm; a small unit can be fine. If it's a normal pregnancy then a small unit should be able to cope as well as a larger one.

    However if complications arise, as they can do during childbirth or A&E, then the patient may need to be moved to where work can be done. This is less likely to happen if the specialisms are available on site.

    Worse, if someone does a task rarely, they may not do it as competently as if they do it regularly, as will happen in a larger unit. I *think* this was an issue in the Bristol and Furness scandals.

    I'm unsure there's a simple solution.
    Smart staff rotation to ensure the ability to handle a tricky case is present in the smaller unit at all times.
    I understand the point but timeliness matters and has a material affect.
  • AIUI one of the issues with sparsely populated areas is that medical services can't develop the critical mass so they have the expertise/experience of dealing with difficult cases - so counter intuitively, the argument can be made that 'babies will die' if local services are kept open......
    "Until it was eradicated in 1891, infant tetanus would also claim the majority of live births. This was referred to as the "eight day sickness", killing eight out of every ten babies born, but considered to be God's will. Improving medical knowledge identified the source of the disease, which was being spread by one of the island's oldest customs, a tradition whereby the midwife would anoint the umbilicus with a mixture of fulmar oil and dung. "

    (It's on wikipedia, but I'm not sure if the thing about the oil/dung being the source of the infection has been proved)
  • For the 'young people prefer X (Labour, SINDY, the EU) so if we wait long enough they (Tories, Unionists, Leavers) will die out, some bad news:

    http://www.sciencealert.com/you-re-a-completely-different-person-at-14-and-77-years-old-personality-study-suggests

    You mean there was a time when you weren't whining impotently about the EssEnPee or hyping up whoever lead the Tory party? Perhaps you could give details of your 'journey' as some supporting evidence.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Labour should be very worried by the reported absence of window posters.

    Indeed. Corbynism, far from sweeping the nation, is breaking two social norms that the Labour party have long relied upon:

    - Voting Labour is seen as part of working class life
    - Voting Tory is seen as somehow alien

    As I've suggested for several months, Mrs May gets the views and concerns of normal people more than an OE ever will.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017

    AIUI one of the issues with sparsely populated areas is that medical services can't develop the critical mass so they have the expertise/experience of dealing with difficult cases - so counter intuitively, the argument can be made that 'babies will die' if local services are kept open......
    I wonder what the public view would be if it were known, for example (*) that they could have a local maternity centre but if there was a complication in their pregnancy there was a 10% chance of the baby dying and a 3% chance of the mother dying, whereas if they sat in an ambulance for 40 minutes to the regional centre there was a 3% and 1% chance respectively. Owing to the more experienced and practised staff and superior equipment at the regional centre.

    (*) Numbers pulled out of my a*se for illustrative purposes only.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Funny they don't run a week of stories holding the last Labour Govt. to account for massively increasing the population whilst making no acknowledgment that we would require equivalent massive provision in health, in education, in housing, in road and rail infrastructure. That is the hospital pass subsequent Govternments are having to deal with.

    For that alone, Labour should be debarred from power for ever.
    Still GPs got a whopping pay rise; and Sodexho, Laing, Capita, G4S & Serco are doing well out of our hospitals and prisons.

    So its not all bad.
  • The key question is usually would they do the same as they are doing anonymously and out of the public gaze with no cameras around. Same applies to lots of corporate charitable giving, its about managing their image as much as anything else, no way it would happen in most cases if they were not able to publicise it.

    Celebrities backing a cause, whatever it is, delivers publicity. That's the nature of the beast. The better test, surely, is whether public word is backed up by private deed. George Michael was not afraid to speak out and was often lambasted for it, but it turns out that in private he gave away huge amounts of his money.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Charles said:

    Where public figures are getting involved in good works, I tend towards scepticism. Clearly there are those - Angela Jolie on war rape, for example - who work hard in a non-glamorous cause. There are others - and I suspect that many in Calais fall into this category - are more interested in the resultant publicity than in actually making a real difference
    The Ice Bucket Challenge was superb PR for ALS. It sucked up a lot of money and other charities complained about it. Well, that's just competition. Before he was POTUS.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxDAyUiXphg
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Pulpstar said:

    Smart staff rotation to ensure the ability to handle a tricky case is present in the smaller unit at all times.
    I understand the point but timeliness matters and has a material affect.
    You might well be right. However ensuring there are specialists (and kit) for most sorts of tricky cases are available might be difficult.

    This is the point in the discussion where I will have to bow out, as the details of what currently and might work are unknown to me. I can hypothesise, but anything I propose might be unworkable due to the annoying presence of reality.

    Dr Sox might be a good person to comment further.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2017
    PlatoSaid said:

    I find the scoffing at Scott Adams most amusing - he doesn't vote. He lives in California and lost all his speaking engagements for simply saying he thought Trump would win the persuasion game.

    The Swamp and Dems are publicly crucifying Milo despite being the actual victim of abuse. It's very unattractive behaviour. And it's all so predictable in terms of character attacks. You're Stupid>Bigot>Anti-Semite>Crazy>White Supremacist>Nazi>Paedo
    Adams said he thought Trump was going to lose the persuasion game. And that he'd win the persuasion game.

    He thing about predicting both outcomes of a coin flip is you can claim to be right no matter what.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    edited February 2017

    If you can do it, why can't I? Don't be such a snowflake.

    No snowflake here chum. I see you've failed to answer my point.

    But then if you're happy to see the left flail about with limp wristed approaches and failed signalling policies I'm not going to get in your way,
  • Funny they don't run a week of stories holding the last Labour Govt. to account for massively increasing the population whilst making no acknowledgment that we would require equivalent massive provision in health, in education, in housing, in road and rail infrastructure. That is the hospital pass subsequent Govternments are having to deal with.

    For that alone, Labour should be debarred from power for ever.

    I agree that it is outrageous the news is not reported in the way that you would like.

  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Celebrities backing a cause, whatever it is, delivers publicity. That's the nature of the beast. The better test, surely, is whether public word is backed up by private deed. George Michael was not afraid to speak out and was often lambasted for it, but it turns out that in private he gave away huge amounts of his money.

    For sure. I think we mean the same thing. Ms Jolie spending days in nasty parts of Africa and in tedious by important conferences, with no cameras coming along for the ride, using their influence in low key but critical ways is one thing. Turning up with some cameras making a lot of noise, slagging off some politicians, getting your photo taken with some babies/refugees/sick people, and then buggering off and doing nothing else to contribute is another.
  • PlatoSaid said:



    I find the scoffing at Scott Adams most amusing - he doesn't vote. He lives in California and lost all his speaking engagements for simply saying he thought Trump would win the persuasion game.

    he made lots of contradictory predictions, in fact. But now using his persuasion skills to pretend that he didn't.
    PlatoSaid said:



    The Swamp and Dems

    that swamp is somehow getting bigger, then, despite trump draining it, as it seems to contain rather a lot of mainstream republicans
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    On a completely different subject are Southern going to get some driverless trains in ?
    I think the RMT needs to be taken on properly in this one, the top of ASLEF appears to be able to talk and compromise - now the shadow of Crow is gone, time to stop taking the easy route out and always giving in to the RMT.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    (Published today), the no of reported deaths in England/Wales is 10% higher in the first 6 weeks of the year than the 5 year average.
    Might explain the particular struggles of the NHS this winter....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    llef said:

    (Published today), the no of reported deaths in England/Wales is 10% higher in the first 6 weeks of the year than the 5 year average.
    Might explain the particular struggles of the NHS this winter....

    Will ease up the housing situation a touch.
  • You mean there was a time when you weren't whining impotently about the EssEnPee or hyping up whoever lead the Tory party? Perhaps you could give details of your 'journey' as some supporting evidence.
    At least the Tories don't put up IRA supporters as candidates:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15086737.SNP_aide_with_pro_IRA_views_passes_candidate_vetting/

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15102373.Revealed__picture_of_SNP_candidate_on_pro_IRA_march/

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/nicola-sturgeon-apologises-msps-ira-freedom-fighters-comment/
  • Mortimer said:

    No snowflake here chum. I see you've failed to answer my point.

    But then if you're happy to see the left flail about with limp wristed approaches and failed signalling policies I'm not going to get in your way,

    You're melting :-D

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677

    Labour should be very worried by the reported absence of window posters.

    On its own, not so much - outside the cities window posters are much less part of the culture: even I felt silly putting up a indow sticker when I once lived in a cottage off the main road. But motivation to vote is certainly the key in both by-elections.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    PlatoSaid said:

    It's cowardly to condemn someone you know can't respond - isn't it?
    rkrkrk's point was simple you said you didn't have opinion when you clearly did have a very strong opinion. Your response (no matter whether correct or not) simply confirmed your post was not rational.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    On a completely different subject are Southern going to get some driverless trains in ?
    I think the RMT needs to be taken on properly in this one, the top of ASLEF appears to be able to talk and compromise - now the shadow of Crow is gone, time to stop taking the easy route out and always giving in to the RMT.

    years away. Tubes from 2020 and they have lines that generally don't have junctions and will have modern signalling. Network rail is Victorian
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    llef said:

    (Published today), the no of reported deaths in England/Wales is 10% higher in the first 6 weeks of the year than the 5 year average.
    Might explain the particular struggles of the NHS this winter....

    Deaths in general, or deaths in a hospital ? I wasnt there are the beginning of the year are the any likely contributory factors like a cold snap or large motorway pileup ?
  • Oh dear.....

    ALEX Salmond has been accused of acting like Donald Trump, after accusing the “yoon media” of presenting an “alternative reality” to Scots.

    In an echo of President Trump’s attacks on the US media over "fake news", the former First Minister said people should not trust Unionist papers that always criticised the SNP.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105537.Salmond_accused_of_acting_like_Trump_after_attacking__yoon_media_/?ref=mr&lp=1
  • At least the Tories don't put up IRA supporters as candidates:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15086737.SNP_aide_with_pro_IRA_views_passes_candidate_vetting/

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/15102373.Revealed__picture_of_SNP_candidate_on_pro_IRA_march/

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/10/nicola-sturgeon-apologises-msps-ira-freedom-fighters-comment/
    Lol, one of the best 'but, but, but....YOUR MUM SMELLS' responses yet!
  • Lol, one of the best 'but, but, but....YOUR MUM SMELLS' responses yet!
    So you're happy with IRA supporters in the SNP.....or is it just 'Yoon Media' - away and play with the Trumpers......
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    PlatoSaid said:

    I find the scoffing at Scott Adams most amusing - he doesn't vote. He lives in California and lost all his speaking engagements for simply saying he thought Trump would win the persuasion game.

    The Swamp and Dems are publicly crucifying Milo despite being the actual victim of abuse. It's very unattractive behaviour. And it's all so predictable in terms of character attacks. You're Stupid>Bigot>Anti-Semite>Crazy>White Supremacist>Nazi>Paedo
    Indeed. And that's why opinion polls are wrong as we decent people have to keep quiet about voting for decent poltiicans. It's a cruel world, run by the Left
  • Pulpstar said:

    On a completely different subject are Southern going to get some driverless trains in ?
    I think the RMT needs to be taken on properly in this one, the top of ASLEF appears to be able to talk and compromise - now the shadow of Crow is gone, time to stop taking the easy route out and always giving in to the RMT.

    Or they could try changing the management.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    News from me mates:

    Tory HQ saying...Copeland, we might win if we get all our troops on the ground.
    Labour...we've won Stoke. Copeland, we're favourites, but it's marginal.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Lol, one of the best 'but, but, but....YOUR MUM SMELLS' responses yet!
    I am surprised you didn't welcome today's unemployment statistics.
  • theakes said:

    David: I suppose you could say "if the Conservatives get their vote out they will win"

    Not exactly. Getting out the Con vote is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for the Conservatives. For Labour, getting out their vote should be sufficient.

    In other words, in this election, my reading is that the maximum realistic Labour vote is greater than the maximum realistic Con vote.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    Simon & Schuster is not a one book business.

    There's a niche for a Russell Brand for spotty virgin white supremacists, it seems. That doesn't surprise me much, though it is a little sad.
    Pithy and perfectly described.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tax receipts surge means GBP9.4 billion funding surplus in January, bringing the PBSR down GBP13.6 billion year on year.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39037698
  • BF now have a book up on Stoke UKIP vote %
  • I agree that it is outrageous the news is not reported in the way that you would like.

    There was never any intention by Brown, Darling or Osborne to acknowledge "that we would require equivalent massive provision in health, in education, in housing, in road and rail infrastructure." The intention was to grow the economy faster than the infrastructure, sweating the assets and eventually reducing the public debt. Cramming more cars onto roads or kids into classrooms, or making people wait longer in A&E, is just a roundabout way of getting them to pay their share of the national debt (that they repeatedly voted for).
  • That's what I love about PB, that we have so many people with a deep understanding of Classical History, and Morris Dancer too
    I'd love to see what Cicero would have made of twitter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    I agree that it is outrageous the news is not reported in the way that you would like.

    I'll have a word with the Donald....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    They have heard that Paul Nuttall is looking for a new press officer.
  • So you're happy with IRA supporters in the SNP.....or is it just 'Yoon Media' - away and play with the Trumpers......
    Impotent whiner gotta whine impotently.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    I am surprised you didn't welcome today's unemployment statistics.
    You've lost me..
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    .
    kjh said:

    rkrkrk's point was simple you said you didn't have opinion when you clearly did have a very strong opinion. Your response (no matter whether correct or not) simply confirmed your post was not rational.
    No - I'd no previous bias about him and judged him for his actions here. I've seen him do good and bad reporting - they've balanced each other out IMO, this was noticeably OTT and unfair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    Funny they don't run a week of stories holding the last Labour Govt. to account for massively increasing the population whilst making no acknowledgment that we would require equivalent massive provision in health, in education, in housing, in road and rail infrastructure. That is the hospital pass subsequent Govternments are having to deal with.

    For that alone, Labour should be debarred from power for ever.
    Not to mentioned the disastrous financial legacy of their botched PPP deals.
    I don't take a partisan view on this - I welcome efforts by news organisations, however imperfect, to be a bit more analytical. A proper reckoning of that legacy would be well worth the license fee.
  • Is because 21st Century Socialism is spreading so fast that spinner and campaign organisers aren't needed any more?
  • llefllef Posts: 301

    Deaths in general, or deaths in a hospital ? I wasnt there are the beginning of the year are the any likely contributory factors like a cold snap or large motorway pileup ?
    Deaths in general, and yes, there is usually a rise in deaths over the winter months, so this is a 10% increase ABOVE the usual average higher number for this time of year.
    To me, a higher no of deaths implies a higher no of very sick people, and so an increase in A&E hospital admissions.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    You've lost me..
    Question evasion technique at PMQs
  • Impotent whiner gotta whine impotently.
    And I thought your mirror had broken......
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    DO you have a reputable link to the details of this 'outing'? You keep on mentioning it.
    Would it really make you reconsider your opinion of him if it was true?

    It's like watching a teenager besotted with a boy band.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    That's what I love about PB, that we have so many people with a deep understanding of Classical History, and Morris Dancer too
    How many of us truly have a deep understanding of Mr Dancer ?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dixie said:

    Indeed. And that's why opinion polls are wrong as we decent people have to keep quiet about voting for decent poltiicans. It's a cruel world, run by the Left
    I've seen several prominent Trump supporters in citizen journalist land say that they're never alone just in case..., never alone with a woman, get approached by women who are out of their league da de da.

    It's really ugly stuff - Roger Stone [who I think is cooky] has just had his YouTube channel deleted. There's dozens of examples of conservative views being squished/advertisers intimidated et al.

    The attacks on PewDiePie were absurd - and hurt him massively in the pocket. This isn't a conspiracy theory - it's blinking obvious.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Michael Fabricant has his 2p on luvvies and political opinions

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/14899384?utm_hp_ref=uk&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774

    he made lots of contradictory predictions, in fact. But now using his persuasion skills to pretend that he didn't. that swamp is somehow getting bigger, then, despite trump draining it, as it seems to contain rather a lot of mainstream republicans

    Eliminate 'the Swamp' and Dems, and you're probably left with a Corbynista sized core of true believers...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    llef said:

    Deaths in general, and yes, there is usually a rise in deaths over the winter months, so this is a 10% increase ABOVE the usual average higher number for this time of year.
    To me, a higher no of deaths implies a higher no of very sick people, and so an increase in A&E hospital admissions.
    The early baby boomers are starting to hit 70, I would be surprised if there wasn't a rise, though 10% sounds does sound like quite a big increase.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    PlatoSaid said:

    I've seen several prominent Trump supporters in citizen journalist land say that they're never alone just in case..., never alone with a woman, get approached by women who are out of their league da de da.

    It's really ugly stuff - Roger Stone [who I think is cooky] has just had his YouTube channel deleted. There's dozens of examples of conservative views being squished/advertisers intimidated et al.

    The attacks on PewDiePie were absurd - and hurt him massively in the pocket. This isn't a conspiracy theory - it's blinking obvious.
    Well, I have been given training (after much pain) to say nothing at all or be vague when an unknown person or a known leftie asks you a leading questions. Sadly, some record me, edit it to change the emphasis and publish it. Bastards. Now, I say nothing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    edited February 2017
    Dixie said:

    News from me mates:

    Tory HQ saying...Copeland, we might win if we get all our troops on the ground.
    Labour...we've won Stoke. Copeland, we're favourites, but it's marginal.

    I heard someone on radio 4 or 5 say he'd seen the Tories look 'confident' followed by the stats on when Labour last lost a by election when in opposition ....followed by the observation that "it should be remembered that 1982 (?) there was also an unpopular hard left Labour leader..."

    It's unlike the BBC to stick their neck out unless it's all over.
  • Dixie said:

    Well, I have been given training (after much pain) to say nothing at all or be vague when an unknown person or a known leftie asks you a leading questions. Sadly, some record me, edit it to change the emphasis and publish it. Bastards. Now, I say nothing.
    I don't think anything was edited in your repetitive and constant astroturfing for Zac's mayoral campaign, was it?
  • MTimT said:

    Tax receipts surge means GBP9.4 billion funding surplus in January, bringing the PBSR down GBP13.6 billion year on year.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39037698

    Projected to the end of March, that's likely to mean a year-on-year deficit reduction of about £15bn. At that rate, government books will be just about back in balance by 2020 and the debt:GDP ratio will be falling at a reasonable pace. (Obviously, whether that rate can be maintained is a wholly different question).
  • Just when you though things couldn't get much worse for Scottish Labour.....

    Police are being called in to investigate allegations of corruption and cronyism at Scotland’s largest local authority. The Times has learnt that the executive director of land and environmental services at Glasgow city council has resigned from his £120,000-a-year position.....

    .....Claims that a Labour administration had given favourable treatment to Mears Scotland triggered a police investigation in neighbouring North Lanarkshire council which led to the council leader being deposed last year. A Glasgow council insider claimed there were parallels between the two authorities, stating: “Internal audit are currently looking into a number of the same people and contractors who were involved in the corruption scandal in North Lanarkshire.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/70ee7fb0-f7c2-11e6-a6f0-cb4e831c1cc0
  • Copeland byelection: Corbyn proving 'barrier' in Sellafield seat

    Labour pins its hopes on antipathy to Tory-backed plans to downgrade maternity unit to retain seat it has held for 80 years

    Even the most committed Labour campaigners in the once safe seat of Copeland admit there is one topic of conversation that comes up more often than most: the leader.

    “Corbyn is a real barrier. Comes up every fifth or sixth contact I’ve made,” said one downcast Labour canvasser after rapping on doors in west Cumbria ahead of next Thursday’s byelection. “Those who voted Labour in the general election in 2015 who mention Corbyn in the main aren’t voting at all.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/21/copeland-byelection-corbyn-proving-barrier-in-sellafield-seat?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    tlg86 said:

    The early baby boomers are starting to hit 70, I would be surprised if there wasn't a rise, though 10% sounds does sound like quite a big increase.
    Maybe it's just Remoaners giving up the will to live?
  • Roger said:

    I heard someone on radio 4 or 5 say he'd seen the Tories look 'confident' followed by the stats on when Labour last lost a by election when in opposition ....followed by the observation that "it should be remembered that 1982 (?) there was also an unpopular hard left Labour leader..."

    It's unlike the BBC to stick their neck out unless it's all over.
    Either a) the Tories are confident or b) they're managing expectations so a Labour hold can be painted as a triumph for Corbyn....which I don't think would unduly upset them....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    edited February 2017

    Copeland byelection: Corbyn proving 'barrier' in Sellafield seat

    Labour pins its hopes on antipathy to Tory-backed plans to downgrade maternity unit to retain seat it has held for 80 years

    Even the most committed Labour campaigners in the once safe seat of Copeland admit there is one topic of conversation that comes up more often than most: the leader.

    “Corbyn is a real barrier. Comes up every fifth or sixth contact I’ve made,” said one downcast Labour canvasser after rapping on doors in west Cumbria ahead of next Thursday’s byelection. “Those who voted Labour in the general election in 2015 who mention Corbyn in the main aren’t voting at all.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/21/copeland-byelection-corbyn-proving-barrier-in-sellafield-seat?CMP=share_btn_tw

    "YouGov’s polling data set includes 2015 general election vote, current general election voting intention, and current EU voting intention. That means we can look at the ebb and flow of each individuals’ support for each party since May 2015, and how that relates to their EU voting intention.

    For Labour, this evidence should ring alarm bells. Those who voted Labour in 2015 split about 2:1 in favour of Remain over Leave. By early May 2016 that had risen to almost 3:1 for current Labour voters, thanks almost entirely to the desertion of former Labour voters backing Leave. In the sample, 42% of the 137 Leave supporters who voted Labour in 2015 would not back the party today and overall the number of current Labour voters backing Leave is 29% down on 2015"

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/guest-slot-polling-analysis-finds-labour-loses-supporters-of-brexit/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    llef said:

    Deaths in general, and yes, there is usually a rise in deaths over the winter months, so this is a 10% increase ABOVE the usual average higher number for this time of year.
    To me, a higher no of deaths implies a higher no of very sick people, and so an increase in A&E hospital admissions.
    A green Christmas makes a full churchyard. Old country saying.

    Also, of course, a green Christmas = a white Easter.
  • Copeland byelection: Corbyn proving 'barrier' in Sellafield seat

    Vox pop from Stoke:

    Alan: “We definitely vote UKIP. I voted Labour all my life. Never again. Corbyn’s the main reason. I think Theresa May’s doing a good job. She’s certainly the best leader in the Commons at the moment. I’ve never voted Tory.”

    Ann: “I would. I believe she’ll do what she said.”

    Alan: “I’d find it very difficult to vote for the Tories.”

    Ann: “Labour isn’t the party it was. And Tony Blair, how he dares to show his face, I don’t know. This city has always been Labour, but I don’t think we are now.”


    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/02/can-the-conservatives-win-in-stoke.html
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    I don't think anything was edited in your repetitive and constant astroturfing for Zac's mayoral campaign, was it?
    can't comment. legal reasons.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Either a) the Tories are confident or b) they're managing expectations so a Labour hold can be painted as a triumph for Corbyn....which I don't think would unduly upset them....
    I don't think anyone knows. Mr Herdson's excellent point was Labour will win if all Labour supporters actually vote. It will be down to GOTV, and seemingly Jezza is making people stay at home on Thursday. But, in what number. I'm still forecasting 2 Labour holds.

    Me mates in UKIP won't answer my questions about Stoke. Normally means a party is doing badly. Tories answering me re: Copeland and Labour re: Stoke. That might tell a story, but DYOR.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    edited February 2017

    Vox pop from Stoke:

    Alan: “We definitely vote UKIP. I voted Labour all my life. Never again. Corbyn’s the main reason. I think Theresa May’s doing a good job. She’s certainly the best leader in the Commons at the moment. I’ve never voted Tory.”

    Ann: “I would. I believe she’ll do what she said.”

    Alan: “I’d find it very difficult to vote for the Tories.”

    Ann: “Labour isn’t the party it was. And Tony Blair, how he dares to show his face, I don’t know. This city has always been Labour, but I don’t think we are now.”


    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/02/can-the-conservatives-win-in-stoke.html
    Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
  • Good morning (again), everyone.

    *raises an eyebrow at Morris Dancer/deep understanding thread*
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638
    isam said:

    Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
    Do you think UKIP would have been better off without Nuttall standing....And going with a local candidate?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Dixie said:

    Well, I have been given training (after much pain) to say nothing at all or be vague when an unknown person or a known leftie asks you a leading questions. Sadly, some record me, edit it to change the emphasis and publish it. Bastards. Now, I say nothing.
    I was monstered by the Daily Mail a decade ago - and they wrote gossip twaddle twice without approaching me. When one did finally call me - I asked him if ruining my career and livelihood was worth 200 chip paper words. I could feel the award silence and hung up.
  • Roger said:

    I heard someone on radio 4 or 5 say he'd seen the Tories look 'confident' followed by the stats on when Labour last lost a by election when in opposition ....followed by the observation that "it should be remembered that 1982 (?) there was also an unpopular hard left Labour leader..."

    It's unlike the BBC to stick their neck out unless it's all over.
    The last time Labour lost a by-election in opposition was 2012: Bradford West.

    1982 was the last time the Conservatives (or indeed, anyone) gained a by-election when in government.

    I'd be wary of comments saying that the Conservatives looked 'confident'. There's no doubt that the Tory team in Copeland was enjoying the election but really they're in a no-lose position (subject to something completely unexpected, like an under-the-radar Lib Dem surge). The radio vox pop is probably confusing 'enjoyment' for 'confidence'.

    That said, the enjoyment is coming from a confidence about doing well; it's just that 'doing well' starts some way before 'winning'.
  • isam said:

    Maybe relying too much on personal feeling, but I think Lab>Con is a very hard jump for people/communities who have been tribal Labour all their life
    I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
  • Pulpstar said:

    ..Sodexho, Laing, Capita, G4S & Serco are doing well out of our hospitals and prisons.So its not all bad.

    Not any more they're not, at least in the cases of Capita, G4S and Serco.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    rkrkrk said:

    Do you think UKIP would have been better off without Nuttall standing....And going with a local candidate?
    Really wouldn't know. My guess is that, apart from the MEPs, UKIP don't really have many good candidates, not that I personally think Nuttall is bad. The fact that people are desperate to try and say a Liverpool fan who says he was at Hillsborough wasn't there, in the name of party politics, is such poor form I am quite amazed. Especially from people who repeatedly post partisan lies on here because they want them to be true.

    I still think they are only marginal second favourites. Polls and betting markets have been about as much use as a chocolate teapot recently, I think their use as a guide is on the wane.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    edited February 2017
    Mr Observer,

    Your definition of 'virtue signalling' is interesting. I fear it may begin to seem like a term that is over-used, now meaning someone you disagree with, something like 'racist'.

    I'll admit to the 'alt' term, although I jib at the 'right' smear.

    I was hoping to compare and contrast the two populations. One is a set of refugees and migrants who have trudged a thousand miles and now find themselves in France (which is regarded by many as civilised).

    I applaud those who go to Calais to help, without thinking about publicity. I have contributed a small amount of money to their cause

    The other is a set of starving children, unable to stand in many cases, living in an active war-zone. I reserve my higher praise for those who toil unrecognised in South Sudan. I contribute a slightly higher amount to these groups.

    In both cases, the amount is a pittance, so my virtue or otherwise is irrelevant.

    As always, I may make my case badly. Revolting? Did I miss off an apostrophe?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Just read at Spectator there was an ICM poll yesterday with Conservatives on 18%.

    Anybody know more?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is rather fun

    Paul Joseph Watson
    The irony of being attacked by the BBC while their chief political editor begs to meet me because they're frightened of irrelevancy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    The last time Labour lost a by-election in opposition was 2012: Bradford West.

    1982 was the last time the Conservatives (or indeed, anyone) gained a by-election when in government.

    I'd be wary of comments saying that the Conservatives looked 'confident'. There's no doubt that the Tory team in Copeland was enjoying the election but really they're in a no-lose position (subject to something completely unexpected, like an under-the-radar Lib Dem surge). The radio vox pop is probably confusing 'enjoyment' for 'confidence'.

    That said, the enjoyment is coming from a confidence about doing well; it's just that 'doing well' starts some way before 'winning'.
    Theresa May doesn't seem to scare the horses. The class thing that was up front under Cameron and Osborne has gone. She is - ahem - detoffifyng the Tory party. She was kinda Remain, but is getting on with implementing the Leave decision of the people.

    The difference with Corbyn is striking. Even voters are noticing.....
  • Mr. Gin, as a lead, surely?
  • Good morning (again), everyone.

    *raises an eyebrow at Morris Dancer/deep understanding thread*

    Just gently mocking your knowledge of the classics.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342

    I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
    Yeah, sure, but there is a difference between admitting May is doing a better job than Corbyn, and voting Tory. I made the jump from Lab to UKIP, but honestly think my family would be disappointed in me if I said I was voting Tory, and we don't live in a Labour heartland at all. Both my Parents prefer May to Corbyn, but they'd never vote Tory
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    Just read at Spectator there was an ICM poll yesterday with Conservatives on 18%.

    Anybody know more?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/833677713105907712


    https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
  • On topic: As others have said, a superb article by David H.

    There has been a lot of discussion about the Labour vote, but the other side of the coin is: how strong is the motivation of Tory-leaning voters? It seems to me that the negative message motivating Labour (vote Labour to kick the government over the local hospital issue) is likely to be a stronger one than the slightly vague, positive, Tory message (vote Tory to show your support for their policies on nuclear power and maybe Brexit).

    This is just a specific example of the general point that by-elections tend to be about kicking the government. Whether Corbyn is so dramatically voter-repellent as to overcome that natural law of by-elections is the nub of the question.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    On topic: As others have said, a superb article by David H.

    There has been a lot of discussion about the Labour vote, but the other side of the coin is: how strong is the motivation of Tory-leaning voters? It seems to me that the negative message motivating Labour (vote Labour to kick the government over the local hospital issue) is likely to be a stronger one than the slightly vague, positive, Tory message (vote Tory to show your support for their policies on nuclear power and maybe Brexit).

    This is just a specific example of the general point that by-elections tend to be about kicking the government. Whether Corbyn is so dramatically voter-repellent as to overcome that natural law of by-elections is the nub of the question.

    I think you understate the importance of the nuclear industry in this by-election - and the Labour leader's views. Can you imagine Labour fighting a by-election in a mining seat, and the leader saying that to protect the health of miners, he wanted to close all the pits?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    Actually, there was a Conservative gain in 1953, Sunderland South, from Labour. However, the swing, 1.5%, is still less than the swing required in Copeland.

    Labour to retain both seats must be the value bet.
  • I'm sure it is very difficult - but when there's a 113 point gap in net favourability ratings between the two leaders among the over-65s some people may be tempted to change the habits of a lifetime.....
    For many ingrained voters, it will be too much of a jump. But actively supporting a Con candidate and accepting the risk of passively letting one in are two different things. Lab switches to UKIP, LD, others or abstentions are the bigger risks.

    (Even now, in the mid- to high-teens Con poll leads, the direct Lab-Con swing is small; the effective swing is driven mainly by third-party effects and lesser certainty to vote among 2015 Lab voters).
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    ouch. They must of thought this willl be a good way to get publicity.....worst case is we lose £500 deposit.....
  • Interesting long read on the 'method in the madness' of Trump's attacks on the media:

    http://time.com/4675860/donald-trump-fake-news-attacks/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    For many ingrained voters, it will be too much of a jump. But actively supporting a Con candidate and accepting the risk of passively letting one in are two different things. Lab switches to UKIP, LD, others or abstentions are the bigger risks.

    (Even now, in the mid- to high-teens Con poll leads, the direct Lab-Con swing is small; the effective swing is driven mainly by third-party effects and lesser certainty to vote among 2015 Lab voters).
    I simply can't find an example of a governing party overcoming a lead of 6.5% in by-election conditions.

    Labour gained Darlington in 1983, just before going down to a massive defeat, so why should they lost Copeland?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Sean_F said:

    I simply can't find an example of a governing party overcoming a lead of 6.5% in by-election conditions.

    Labour gained Darlington in 1983, just before going down to a massive defeat, so why should they lost Copeland?
    The odds are quite astounding !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
  • An excellent thread David. You make the 5/2 odds against a Labour hold in Copeland look like the political bet of the year thus far and there was I thinking I was entitled to that particular brownie point by suggesting the best value wager was the then 10/11 odds available on Labour holding Stoke Central.
    Of course there's still the small matter of landing these two bets!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2017
    nunu said:

    ouch. They must of thought this willl be a good way to get publicity.....worst case is we lose £500 deposit.....
    They stood 32 candidates at the GE2015, all lost their deposits, natch. - The Cannabis is safer than Alcohol party de-registered last year and is now the Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance, same initials but doesn’t have quite the same ring to it. – Presumably the EC fine was due to their late entry into the snap elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly.
  • I think you understate the importance of the nuclear industry in this by-election - and the Labour leader's views. Can you imagine Labour fighting a by-election in a mining seat, and the leader saying that to protect the health of miners, he wanted to close all the pits?

    Yes, fair point, and that will certainly be a big drag on the Labour vote. I'm not sure it will boost the Conservative vote much, though, so it comes down to whether Labour can make this a referendum on the local hospital.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    edited February 2017
    Mr. Putney, ahem, edited hurriedly because I misread things and got the blue and red odds confused.
  • French presidential odds: Macron has drifted and Le Pen shortened slightly to 2.87 (each). Fillon's odds shortened a smidge to 3.5.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    An excellent thread David. You make the 5/2 odds against a Labour hold in Copeland look like the political bet of the year thus far and there was I thinking I was entitled to that particular brownie point by suggesting the best value wager was the then 10/11 odds available on Labour holding Stoke Central.
    Of course there's still the small matter of landing these two bets!

    Labour are priced at 11 - 12.5 on SPIN.

    The market resolves at 25 for 1st, 10 for 2nd.

    I bought £40 a point at 12.0, and it feels like a very good bet. The market however is currently suspended.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Interesting long read on the 'method in the madness' of Trump's attacks on the media:

    http://time.com/4675860/donald-trump-fake-news-attacks/

    I got bored half way down - it felt like an Establishment self justification. What happened in the other half?
This discussion has been closed.