politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another poll has CON getting much closer to LAB

OblitusSumMe said:

The whole point of pb.com is to try to rationally analyse things so that the cool-headed punter can make money betting when partisans such as yourself bet when blinded by hope.

The best partisans are the ones who "used to be" Labour / Tory / Lib Dem etc...

Scott_P said:

Phil "Us Blues" ?

He was very good. More entertaining than Ricardohos.

Talking of the plod, sounds like they are going to have some questions to answer over Jimmy Saville (along with many other parts of the establishment),

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2461443/Sickening-arrogance-monster-groomed-Britain-Transcripts-Jimmy-Saviles-police-interview-revealed-time.html

OblitusSumMe said:

@AveryLP - With apologies, but my question was entirely about the housing market outside London and the SE.

Any comments?

...

My apologies due to you Oblitus as I did realise I had not answered your question after rereading your comment. There is a tiny bit of cross-over though as the South East will have had prices driven up by displaced former owners of central London property. Although this is probably not statistically significant, in my personal experience, many of my friends have made just that move over the past decade.

You are correct on HTB only coming into effect in April and so far it has been primarily targetted at first time buyers, but the Funds for Lending scheme, which has allowed the banks to provide loans at lower interest rates, came into effect earlier and has had a more general impact on the market. This particularly applies to remortgages which are reversing their proportional decline in share of all mortgages over the two years of the Coalition's term.

All said though, I don't think we should be worrying about a 2.3% increase in SE prices this year after two years of a -1.0% average annual decrease. This especially applies when nominal prices in the SE have hardly moved in the six years since the crash.

Bubble territory would be where annual increases above 5% were matched by similar increases in net lending over a sustained period, say five years. It would also require a much higher volume of sales in the market. Even today volumes are below 40% of peak levels.

As the recovery gathers pace and the effects of HTB 2 add stimulus we are going to see some "alarming" percentage figures quoted for various regions and periods. As people start running around crying "panic", the cool-headed will keep their eyes fixed on the growth rates of net mortgage lending and transaction volumes. It is only if they start to show sustained above inflation increases that the stimuli will need to be withdrawn.

The Ernst & Young Item Club prediction of 3.5% increases in the UK this year followed by 6% next are probably where the prices should go given the stage of economic recovery we have currently reached. It is five subsequent years of 6% house price/lending increases which would be unsustainable and a cause for alarm.

OblitusSumMe said:

Neil said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The whole point of pb.com is to try to rationally analyse things so that the cool-headed punter can make money betting when partisans such as yourself bet when blinded by hope.

The best partisans are the ones who "used to be" Labour / Tory / Lib Dem etc...

Surely we are - all of us - atoning for some past political sin?

It's the "my views are particularly important because I used to vote x / y / z but only recently switched because of a / b / c" brigade that I'm really getting at.

I've managed to only ever vote for one party in every local / national / european election I have ever voted in so you should never listen to my opinions

Cheers Avery.

I'd agree that the net lending rates are more important than the headline prices. That's a good point.

have to feel for the pc involved in the Mark Duggan shooting - if he is innocent his "mates" have stitched him up big time. Who would believe him after Plebgate, Hillsborough etc.

Neil said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Neil said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The whole point of pb.com is to try to rationally analyse things so that the cool-headed punter can make money betting when partisans such as yourself bet when blinded by hope.

The best partisans are the ones who "used to be" Labour / Tory / Lib Dem etc...

Surely we are - all of us - atoning for some past political sin?

It's the "my views are particularly important because I used to vote x / y / z but only recently switched because of a / b / c" brigade that I'm really getting at.

I've managed to only ever vote for one party in every local / national / european election I have ever voted in so you should never listen to my opinions

I think that I've never voted for the winning candidate in an election. I'd humbly suggest this was a superior reason for discounting my opinion.

AveryLP said:

Neil said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Neil said:

OblitusSumMe said:

The whole point of pb.com is to try to rationally analyse things so that the cool-headed punter can make money betting when partisans such as yourself bet when blinded by hope.

The best partisans are the ones who "used to be" Labour / Tory / Lib Dem etc...

Surely we are - all of us - atoning for some past political sin?

It's the "my views are particularly important because I used to vote x / y / z but only recently switched because of a / b / c" brigade that I'm really getting at.

This is precisely the reason, Neil, that PB needs to listen very carefully to Plato

So you're saying we all need to buy a cat?

Plebgate-Yawn

Tories close in on Labour on TNS-BMRB-Outlier(strokes his chin worriedly)

SMukesh said:

Plebgate-Yawn

Tories close in on Labour on TNS-BMRB-Outlier(strokes his chin worriedly)

Were you were one of the posters calling for Mitchell to resign based on the police's lies? If so, do you wish to admit you were wrong for having been part of a witch hunt, if you have not already done so?

This is an interesting barometer of morality on here. A wrong has evidently been done, yet some people refuse to admit it, or try to sickeningly divert the story.

SMukesh said:

Plebgate-Yawn

Tories close in on Labour on TNS-BMRB-Outlier(strokes his chin worriedly)

It's really pretty straightforward SMukesh: Ed's failed (either mostly or entirely) to displace the ~5pt lead and replace it with a bigger one. The burden is on Ed simply because it's the opposition imperative to want to do better than that, at this stage; perhaps you disagree and see conference season as a success for Labour when nothing (or almost nothing) has changed.

JosiasJessop said:

SMukesh said:

Plebgate-Yawn

Tories close in on Labour on TNS-BMRB-Outlier(strokes his chin worriedly)

Were you were one of the posters calling for Mitchell to resign based on the police's lies? If so, do you wish to admit you were wrong for having been part of a witch hunt, if you have not already done so?

This is an interesting barometer of morality on here. A wrong has evidently been done, yet some people refuse to admit it, or try to sickeningly divert the story.

Lots of ifs and buts there but as you are wrong on the first count,your entire post is worthless!

tim said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Politics aside, and let's ignore Cameron and the CCTV footage for now, Plebgate should really be beyond partisan squabbles now. It absolutely beggars belief that serving, supposedly elite, coppers thought they could get away with this.
It's frightening, and will do untold damage to every police force in the country. Heads really need to roll for this, maybe even prison time, and I say this as someone who thought Mitchell should resign, initially.

I think you're going to be very shocked by the extent of the Hillsborough cover up

Nah, I'm not. I just thought "elite" cops would be more mindful of CCTV, and might be at least just a little more nuanced than they have been. Also, the Fed reps that got recorded by Mitchell were too dumb to think that a Tory MP might be cleverer than them. That certain coppers thought it would be a good think to stitch up a high level politician is truly frightening, though.

Hillsborough is going to be a seismic event, when its finally done and dusted, but I not surprised that the police thought they could bully working class footie fans in the 80s, or that decades of covering up wouldn't eventually fall to pieces.

You can't move for Poles tonight at Marylebone.

SMukesh said:

Grandiose said:

SMukesh said:

Plebgate-Yawn

Tories close in on Labour on TNS-BMRB-Outlier(strokes his chin worriedly)

It's really pretty straightforward SMukesh: Ed's failed (either mostly or entirely) to displace the ~5pt lead and replace it with a bigger one. The burden is on Ed simply because it's the opposition imperative to want to do better than that, at this stage; perhaps you disagree and see conference season as a success for Labour when nothing (or almost nothing) has changed.

I would like to wait for tonight`s Youguv and MORI tmr to decide on whether the Tories are closing in on Labour.

Perhaps Youguv and TNS-BMRB are polling more profiteers from the Royal Mail sell off.

No need to wait....

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/15/its-long-term-trends-stupid/

If the Tories reach parity anytime soon is another matter.

If the blue line crosses the red one, the howls of anguish will be astonishing.

@politicshome: Jack Straw on #plebgate: "On any analysis, there has been misconduct by these police officers & public can’t have confidence in them" #bbc

Does anyone have a link to the thread where guesses on "Crossover" on the date of any poll giving a Tory lead is , it would be interesting to see how people voted on the timing..

tim said:

He's a UKiP candidate but this is correct

@oflynnexpress: If UKIP does get a 22% Euro vote share in London then that points to a very exciting result indeed in our stronghold areas.

Nimby scared land will poll much higher than London.

Ooh did we have a bet on UKIP in London? Or couldn't we agree on terms?

SMukesh said:

JosiasJessop said:

SMukesh said:

Plebgate-Yawn

Tories close in on Labour on TNS-BMRB-Outlier(strokes his chin worriedly)

Were you were one of the posters calling for Mitchell to resign based on the police's lies? If so, do you wish to admit you were wrong for having been part of a witch hunt, if you have not already done so?

This is an interesting barometer of morality on here. A wrong has evidently been done, yet some people refuse to admit it, or try to sickeningly divert the story.

Lots of ifs and buts there but as you are wrong on the first count,your entire post is worthless!

Fair enough; the conditionals were there to cover all bases. I'm glad you were sensible enough to hold off calling for a resignation.

But even without them, the last paragraph is pertinent. A wrong has apparently been done. It should be irrelevant to justice whether it was a Conservative MP, a Labour MP, or just us unimportant plebs. Yet some on here still seem to want to blame the victims.

Fenster said:

I was listening to the BBC debate on R5 earlier. Alan Yentob the voice for the defence and Trevor Kavanagh agin, in front of a live audience.

It was interesting that (so they say) the BBC gets roughly an equal amount of letters accusing it of right-wing bias as it does left wing bias. And apparently pisses the Palestinians off as much as it does the Israelis.

Was intriguing stuff. Kavanagh mentioned the amount of Guardian newspapers the BBC buys but then made himself look a tool when Yentob reminding him that the editor of Newnight used to work for NI.

I don't consider the BBC left-wing. It's hard to categorise such a wide and varied organisation under one umbrella term. It's obviously staffed by liberal intellectuals from the middle to higher class who aren't necessarily in tune with the Sun's White Van Man. And I guess its strong foreign connections make it predisposed towards the EU, far more than our press would be. But left-wing? I don't really see it.

I think Andrew Neil and Paxman are always pretty fair. I listen to R5 a lot and sometimes find that Victoria Derbyshire spits the word Conservative, but when Gabby Yorath was presenting I used to sense that she despised Labour.

Are any of their progs or presenters overly or obviously left wing?

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

JosiasJessop said:

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

Do you think comedians get asked about their politics before being booked for comedy shows or is it maybe based on how funny they are?

Argh, I've broken my new year resolution not to get sucked into ridiculous BBC bias arguments.

JosiasJessop said:

Fenster said:

I was listening to the BBC debate on R5 earlier. Alan Yentob the voice for the defence and Trevor Kavanagh agin, in front of a live audience.

It was interesting that (so they say) the BBC gets roughly an equal amount of letters accusing it of right-wing bias as it does left wing bias. And apparently pisses the Palestinians off as much as it does the Israelis.

Was intriguing stuff. Kavanagh mentioned the amount of Guardian newspapers the BBC buys but then made himself look a tool when Yentob reminding him that the editor of Newnight used to work for NI.

I don't consider the BBC left-wing. It's hard to categorise such a wide and varied organisation under one umbrella term. It's obviously staffed by liberal intellectuals from the middle to higher class who aren't necessarily in tune with the Sun's White Van Man. And I guess its strong foreign connections make it predisposed towards the EU, far more than our press would be. But left-wing? I don't really see it.

I think Andrew Neil and Paxman are always pretty fair. I listen to R5 a lot and sometimes find that Victoria Derbyshire spits the word Conservative, but when Gabby Yorath was presenting I used to sense that she despised Labour.

Are any of their progs or presenters overly or obviously left wing?

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

I dunno, I don't watch enough telly. And are there any right-wing comedians? What's Ian Hislop, and is Jeremy Clarkson regarded as a comedian? I know Frankie Boyle was overtly anti-Tory, but hasn't he been kicked out?

I'd kinda like the BBC to be exposed for its left-wingery, but - and admittedly, my BBC intake is mainlly radio - I don't find myself shouting at the radio or TV much on despair at the lefty conspiracies. Although I do find QT annoying and the audiences unrepresentative of the world I know out there.

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

So Tim stop running away. Bet me now on the Conservatives winning an outright majority at the next General Election.

As I say you haven't mentioned odds or amounts during this bluster.

I'm assuming that one of your firsts was in "out of the balloon" what was the other in?

Right Tim. I want 3 bets. I'll work out the other two but the first is this:

£20 that the Conservatives win an outright majority at the next General Election. If they do you pay me £20. If they don't I pay you £20.

Will you take the bet? Yes or No. One word answer. Now.

Yes. FULL STOP

I'd say it was unfair that you get all the value bets but it was more effort than I would have bothered with for £20.

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

So Tim stop running away. Bet me now on the Conservatives winning an outright majority at the next General Election.

As I say you haven't mentioned odds or amounts during this bluster.

I'm assuming that one of your firsts was in "out of the balloon" what was the other in?

Right Tim. I want 3 bets. I'll work out the other two but the first is this:

£20 that the Conservatives win an outright majority at the next General Election. If they do you pay me £20. If they don't I pay you £20.

Will you take the bet? Yes or No. One word answer. Now.

Yes. FULL STOP

Excellent. I think there's a semi-official way of registering this on here isn't there? Anyone know? And can I check if you settled that other bet that was mentioned earlier today by someone?

Care to make it £200 before we register it, or £2,000?

Were you never taught to share as a child?

Neil said:

JosiasJessop said:

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

Do you think comedians get asked about their politics before being booked for comedy shows or is it maybe based on how funny they are?

Argh, I've broken my new year resolution not to get sucked into ridiculous BBC bias arguments.

Apropos not much. Watched Phil Jupitus at Harrogate theatre on Friday where he stated that he hated all tories bar three, mum, dad and Wogan. He's either a very, very good actor or he meant it.

Neil said:

JosiasJessop said:

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

Do you think comedians get asked about their politics before being booked for comedy shows or is it maybe based on how funny they are?

Argh, I've broken my new year resolution not to get sucked into ridiculous BBC bias arguments.

No, of course they're not asked. That's a rather silly statement.

Their politics will have been obvious to any commissioning editor or TV wallah who's seen them perform *before* TV. Those people probably wouldn't have seen it as a bias, but "oh my God, this guy's so funny, and I agree with him/her." It's cultural, rather than any grand Tim-like conspiracy.

And it's not a ridiculous argument. I'm a general supporter of the BBC, and do not mind paying the licence fee. But parts of it are undoubtedly broken.

Anyhows, I guess that means that you cannot think of even one right-wing comedian, to counter the likes of Boyle, Hardy and Mitchell. (And yes, I find Mitchell funny. But he can be rather left-wing on the ad-lib stuff).

JosiasJessop said:

And it's not a ridiculous argument. .

We're going to have to agree to disagree on that.

JosiasJessop said:

Fenster said:

I was listening to the BBC debate on R5 earlier. Alan Yentob the voice for the defence and Trevor Kavanagh agin, in front of a live audience.

It was interesting that (so they say) the BBC gets roughly an equal amount of letters accusing it of right-wing bias as it does left wing bias. And apparently pisses the Palestinians off as much as it does the Israelis.

Was intriguing stuff. Kavanagh mentioned the amount of Guardian newspapers the BBC buys but then made himself look a tool when Yentob reminding him that the editor of Newnight used to work for NI.

I don't consider the BBC left-wing. It's hard to categorise such a wide and varied organisation under one umbrella term. It's obviously staffed by liberal intellectuals from the middle to higher class who aren't necessarily in tune with the Sun's White Van Man. And I guess its strong foreign connections make it predisposed towards the EU, far more than our press would be. But left-wing? I don't really see it.

I think Andrew Neil and Paxman are always pretty fair. I listen to R5 a lot and sometimes find that Victoria Derbyshire spits the word Conservative, but when Gabby Yorath was presenting I used to sense that she despised Labour.

Are any of their progs or presenters overly or obviously left wing?

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

Clarkson? Farage?

How many (professional) right wing comedians can you name?

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fenster said:

I was listening to the BBC debate on R5 earlier. Alan Yentob the voice for the defence and Trevor Kavanagh agin, in front of a live audience.

It was interesting that (so they say) the BBC gets roughly an equal amount of letters accusing it of right-wing bias as it does left wing bias. And apparently pisses the Palestinians off as much as it does the Israelis.

Was intriguing stuff. Kavanagh mentioned the amount of Guardian newspapers the BBC buys but then made himself look a tool when Yentob reminding him that the editor of Newnight used to work for NI.

I don't consider the BBC left-wing. It's hard to categorise such a wide and varied organisation under one umbrella term. It's obviously staffed by liberal intellectuals from the middle to higher class who aren't necessarily in tune with the Sun's White Van Man. And I guess its strong foreign connections make it predisposed towards the EU, far more than our press would be. But left-wing? I don't really see it.

I think Andrew Neil and Paxman are always pretty fair. I listen to R5 a lot and sometimes find that Victoria Derbyshire spits the word Conservative, but when Gabby Yorath was presenting I used to sense that she despised Labour.

Are any of their progs or presenters overly or obviously left wing?

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

Clarkson? Farage?

How many (professional) right wing comedians can you name?

And of course as far as Ed was concerned there was the greatest right wing comedian of them all - Liam 'there's no money left' Byrne.

tim said:

With four or five exceptions the PB Tories are the thickest posters on the Internet.

PB Thickies? Or a tad rude?

Peter_the_Punter said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fenster said:

I was listening to the BBC debate on R5 earlier. Alan Yentob the voice for the defence and Trevor Kavanagh agin, in front of a live audience.

It was interesting that (so they say) the BBC gets roughly an equal amount of letters accusing it of right-wing bias as it does left wing bias. And apparently pisses the Palestinians off as much as it does the Israelis.

Was intriguing stuff. Kavanagh mentioned the amount of Guardian newspapers the BBC buys but then made himself look a tool when Yentob reminding him that the editor of Newnight used to work for NI.

I don't consider the BBC left-wing. It's hard to categorise such a wide and varied organisation under one umbrella term. It's obviously staffed by liberal intellectuals from the middle to higher class who aren't necessarily in tune with the Sun's White Van Man. And I guess its strong foreign connections make it predisposed towards the EU, far more than our press would be. But left-wing? I don't really see it.

I think Andrew Neil and Paxman are always pretty fair. I listen to R5 a lot and sometimes find that Victoria Derbyshire spits the word Conservative, but when Gabby Yorath was presenting I used to sense that she despised Labour.

Are any of their progs or presenters overly or obviously left wing?

Name a right-wing comedian who gets frequent airtime on the BBC.

Clarkson? Farage?

How many (professional) right wing comedians can you name?

Jim Davidson?

Can't be said that Jim didn't have his moment of BBC sun.

'I'm gonna be snookering you, snookering you tonight!'

Stuart_Dickson said:

Why is somebody offering Tim to lay CON MAJ at EVS when he could back CON MAJ at 3/1 with William Hill?

That is a sign of just how betting illiterate PB has become.

I have three figure wagers at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs of ConHome that the Tories won't win most seats. The bet is more than covered by my 9/1 CON-LD coalition bet and my 12/1 "hung parliament no coalaition bets". I only lose if there is a CON majority.

There'll be scenes of delight in Glasgow tonight....

At least they've a British team in Brazil