Sean O'Neill @TimesCrime Theresa May says it is "quite wrong" of @WMerciaPolice not to take disciplinary proceedings against officers who met Mitchell #plebgate
Dominic Casciani @BBCDomC Home Sec: Number of cases that has questioned police ethics & standards: Plebgate, Hillsborough etc.
Could the police have damaged themselves more than this re Plebgate?
I can't recall a recent case that's been so appalling? If you can be allegedly fitted up by Diplomatic Protection Unit who are by implication men of superior integrity whilst standing on Downing St - what hope for the rest of us little people?
After I put the pigeon out of its misery and buried it, the cats regarded me as if I had just shat in their sitting rooms.
Earlier in the year we briefly rescued a fledgling from our cat, managed to fight back a half-dozen or so local cats with the super-soaker while the fledgling recovered, and got over its shock, only to see it hanging out of the mouth of a cat half an hour later.
And, the only mice I've ever had in the house have been brought into the house by the damn cat wanting to play with something.
Tim I'll wager you these based on established national opinion polls as reported on this site and / or UKPR. These are straight evens bets. They come right you pay me £10, if they don't I pay you. All three together, take or leave.
1. £10 Evens between today and 30th June 2014 the Conservatives will have a lead in at least one poll 2. £10 Evens between today and 31st December 2014 the Conservatives will have a 5% or more lead in at least one poll 3. £10 Evens between today and 08th May 2015 the Conservatives will have a 10% or more lead in either one opinion poll or the actual General Election the latter based on United Kingdom
Please note for the avoidance of doubt these are the published figures, not your fiddling manipulations of samples, adjustments or people who live in Surbiton.
So you want a poll outlier bet rather than an election result bet?
I thought you wouldn't be man enough to place your wallet where your over-used mouth is. I want a bet that isn't solely based on 19 months time, but timid tim won't.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
No real mystery about the closing gap. Ed's left swerve while possibly firming up his numbers amongst lefties has been a real reason for disgruntled con/ukip flirters to consider the potential consequences of a labour win. Focuses the minds of tbe crusty colonel set. WWC labour to ukip switchers by way of contrast still hate labour on immigration etc. Net result is tories close otbe gap. Ukip to have a last hurrah at the euros as it offers a pain free vote before 2015 large scale consolidation of english right with the tories. WWC kippers will not go back to labour. I think.
After I put the pigeon out of its misery and buried it, the cats regarded me as if I had just shat in their sitting rooms.
Earlier in the year we briefly rescued a fledgling from our cat, managed to fight back a half-dozen or so local cats with the super-soaker while the fledgling recovered, and got over its shock, only to see it hanging out of the mouth of a cat half an hour later.
And, the only mice I've ever had in the house have been brought into the house by the damn cat wanting to play with something.
This cat will be my last.
A fledgling that can't fly is dead within 24hrs because it can't feed either. Assuming it fell out of its nest - then being eaten by a cat isn't the worst way to go. At least its quick.
For future ref - if you find a fledgling it needs to go into a bush or hedge a few feet off the ground. Or if like me you have domesticated birds like canaries with their own brood and add them into the nest.
I found a week old dicky and my canaries raised it with their own and I let it go about 3 weeks later. It really didn't want to stay - but the canary chicks were happy as larry - I had no idea how much domestication affected them.
Tim I'll wager you these based on established national opinion polls as reported on this site and / or UKPR. These are straight evens bets. They come right you pay me £10, if they don't I pay you. All three together, take or leave.
1. £10 Evens between today and 30th June 2014 the Conservatives will have a lead in at least one poll 2. £10 Evens between today and 31st December 2014 the Conservatives will have a 5% or more lead in at least one poll 3. £10 Evens between today and 08th May 2015 the Conservatives will have a 10% or more lead in either one opinion poll or the actual General Election the latter based on United Kingdom
Please note for the avoidance of doubt these are the published figures, not your fiddling manipulations of samples, adjustments or people who live in Surbiton.
So you want a poll outlier bet rather than an election result bet?
I thought you wouldn't be man enough to place your wallet where your over-used mouth is. I want a bet that isn't solely based on 19 months time, but timid tim won't.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
No need for that though - tim is the 'grit' in the oyster to some and basically a hoot for many with his obsessions. He doesn't even get moderated as much these days as mellowed over time.
After I put the pigeon out of its misery and buried it, the cats regarded me as if I had just shat in their sitting rooms.
Earlier in the year we briefly rescued a fledgling from our cat, managed to fight back a half-dozen or so local cats with the super-soaker while the fledgling recovered, and got over its shock, only to see it hanging out of the mouth of a cat half an hour later.
And, the only mice I've ever had in the house have been brought into the house by the damn cat wanting to play with something.
This cat will be my last.
A fledgling that can't fly is dead within 24hrs because it can't feed either. Assuming it fell out of its nest - then being eaten by a cat isn't the worst way to go. At least its quick.
For future ref - if you find a fledgling it needs to go into a bush or hedge a few feet off the ground.
Oh, it was able to fly once it recovered from its shock, but it seems it was mistaken in thinking it was safe a few feet up in our buddleia bush. It wasn't.
tim appears to be anticipating outlier polls which will see Tory leads of 5% plus before long... when did we last see one of those?
I'm surprised he's so unconfident in Ed!
The last Tory lead of 5% or more appears to have been the 22nd January ICM in 2012.
Not that long then .... the eu flounce I believe - but of course before the omnishambles budget which cost the blues the election.... should be plain sailing therefore from now on then?
Birmingham is 'national disgrace' says Ofsted chief inspector
Birmingham, Britain’s second city, has been branded a “national disgrace” and one of the worst places to grow up in the developed world by Sir Michael Wilshaw, the Ofsted chief inspector.
Horta-Osorio, Lloyds CEO, is the strongest advocate of government support for the housing and housing finance markets in the banking industry. He is not opposed to the Help to Buy schemes but rather arguing for an extension of government support: increased building of both private sector and social housing; reduced planning and building controls; and an increased focus on the housing markets outside London and the South East.
As the Sky News article makes clear, Horta-Osorio believes the Funds for Lending and two Help to Buy Schemes are "well-timed", will not lead to a housing bubble, and, are "absolutely the right thing to do".
I will post a table of house prices increases under Labour and the Coalition governments in a follow up comment. It is an updated version of a table previously posted revised to include data from the latest ONS Housing Price Index release.
What the table will show is that house prices in the decade prior to the financial crash averaged 11.3% per year. This was matched by similar increases in net mortgage lending by the UK banks and mortgage lenders and essentially to a real housing bubble.
By contrast, house prices since 2010 have only increased by an annual average of 1.6%. In Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland house prices have not yet recovered the value they had in 2007 in nominal let alone real terms. In England, excluding London and the South East, the house price index is only 1% above its nominal level in 2007. At the same time net mortgage lending has been flat and over the past year has declined as households have paid down mortgage loans faster than new loans have been taken out. The average mortgage loan approved fell in value over the past month suggesting that whatever price increases are being experience are not being fuelled by credit.
We do know that prices in London have increased by an average of 5.7% over the past three years and 9.1% in the past year, but this has been mainly driven by foreign investors making cash purchases of prime central property (as discussed on yesterday's thread). The increases in London are not credit fuelled. It should also be noted that London prices declined further from a lower historical base during the crash and are currently falling. At the time of the crash the London ONS HPI was 13.4 points below the UK average: today is 18 points above.
As Danny Alexander has said, the UK is a million miles away from a housing price and credit bubble.
After I put the pigeon out of its misery and buried it, the cats regarded me as if I had just shat in their sitting rooms.
Earlier in the year we briefly rescued a fledgling from our cat, managed to fight back a half-dozen or so local cats with the super-soaker while the fledgling recovered, and got over its shock, only to see it hanging out of the mouth of a cat half an hour later.
And, the only mice I've ever had in the house have been brought into the house by the damn cat wanting to play with something.
This cat will be my last.
A fledgling that can't fly is dead within 24hrs because it can't feed either. Assuming it fell out of its nest - then being eaten by a cat isn't the worst way to go. At least its quick.
For future ref - if you find a fledgling it needs to go into a bush or hedge a few feet off the ground.
Knowing the danger of making this PB's wildlife corner, we've had a few tiny (just over half an inch long) toads in her house over the last few weeks. This morning we found one by the stairs at the front door. We put it in the back garden, and when I came back from a meeting, there was an identical toad at the back door. I thought it had somehow got back in, but the original toad was still hiding in the same crevice we put it in. So I gave it a friend.
They are so incredibly tiny - I can't imagine they'd survive a winter, yet alone a harsh one. Does anyone know if such small toads are unusual at this time of year?
============================================================= ONS House Price Index [Aug 2013] ============================================================= UK Eng. Wal. Sco. N.I. London UK excl. Lon & SE ------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 Q2 61.2 52.8 59.7 65.6 82.4 63.5 N/A 2002 Feb 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2007 Oct 184.4 179.2 221.6 225.2 276.7 171.0 196.3 2010 Q2 177.1 173.0 210.9 222.1 174.8 171.1 184.8 2012 Aug 179.3 176.0 208.0 220.2 139.5 187.6 181.4 2013 Jul 185.0 182.4 204.8 215.4 143.5 204.7 183.4 2013 Aug 186.0 183.2 210.1 218.7 141.0 204.0 185.2 ------------------------------------------------------------- LABOUR UK Eng. Wal. Sco. N.I. London UK excl. Growth Lon & SE ------------------------------------------------------------- Total 189.4% 227.7% 253.3% 238.6% 112.1% 169.4% N/A
Average Full Term 8.5% 9.6% 10.2% 9.8% 6.0% 7.9% N/A Pre peak 11.3% 12.6% 13.5% 12.7% 12.4% 10.1% N/A Post peak (1.5%) (1.3%) (1.8%) (0.5%)(15.8%) 0.0% (2.2%) ------------------------------------------------------------- COALITION UK Eng. Wal. Sco. N.I. London UK excl. Growth Lon & SE ------------------------------------------------------------- Total 5.0% 5.9% (0.4%) (1.5%)(19.3%) 19.2% 0.2%
Average Annual 1.6% 1.8% (0.1%) (0.5%) (6.6%) 5.7% 0.1% 1st 2 yrs 0.6% 0.8% (0.6%) (0.4%) (9.9%) 4.2% (1.0%) Last year 3.7% 4.1% 1.0% (0.7%) 1.1% 9.1% 2.3% Last month 0.5% 0.4% 2.6% 1.5% (1.7%) (0.3%) 1.0% =============================================================
tim appears to be anticipating outlier polls which will see Tory leads of 5% plus before long... when did we last see one of those?
I'm surprised he's so unconfident in Ed!
The last Tory lead of 5% or more appears to have been the 22nd January ICM in 2012.
Not that long then .... the eu flounce I believe - but of course before the omnishambles budget which cost the blues the election.... should be plain sailing therefore from now on then?
ICM had the Tories 3% ahead in the same week as the March 2012 budget.
@AveryLP - So the UK excluding London & SE is up by 2.3% in the last year, but I think Help to Buy only started in April, is that right?
Looks to me as though prices outside of London could be motoring way ahead of earnings by the one-year anniversary of Help to Buy [if I have my dates right].
After I put the pigeon out of its misery and buried it, the cats regarded me as if I had just shat in their sitting rooms.
Earlier in the year we briefly rescued a fledgling from our cat, managed to fight back a half-dozen or so local cats with the super-soaker while the f
A fledgling that can't fly is dead within 24hrs because it can't feed either. Assuming it fell out of its nest - then being eaten by a cat isn't the worst way to go. At least its quick.
For future ref - if you find a fledgling it needs to go into a bush or hedge a few feet off the ground.
Knowing the danger of making this PB's wildlife corner, we've had a few tiny (just over half an inch long) toads in her house over the last few weeks. This morning we found one by the stairs at the front door. We put it in the back garden, and when I came back from a meeting, there was an identical toad at the back door. I thought it had somehow got back in, but the original toad was still hiding in the same crevice we put it in. So I gave it a friend.
They are so incredibly tiny - I can't imagine they'd survive a winter, yet alone a harsh one. Does anyone know if such small toads are unusual at this time of year?
Not really but they need somewhere warmish and damp - do you have a shed/woodpile or compost heap?
Tim I'll wager you these based on established national opinion polls as reported on this site and / or UKPR. These are straight evens bets. They come right you pay me £10, if they don't I pay you. All three together, take or leave.
1. £10 Evens between today and 30th June 2014 the Conservatives will have a lead in at least one poll 2. £10 Evens between today and 31st December 2014 the Conservatives will have a 5% or more lead in at least one poll 3. £10 Evens between today and 08th May 2015 the Conservatives will have a 10% or more lead in either one opinion poll or the actual General Election the latter based on United Kingdom
Please note for the avoidance of doubt these are the published figures, not your fiddling manipulations of samples, adjustments or people who live in Surbiton.
So you want a poll outlier bet rather than an election result bet?
I thought you wouldn't be man enough to place your wallet where your over-used mouth is. I want a bet that isn't solely based on 19 months time, but timid tim won't.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
I'd rather have a more substantial bet on an actual election result than listen to your worries about "tying up" £20 for a few months.
Right, so you've chickened out when I took the challenge and went for bets. Full of hot air you are Tim, but why am I not surprised?
A bet that takes 19 months to materialise is a bore, like you, so amend my 3 wagers if you've got any spine left in you.
Tim I'll wager you these based on established national opinion polls as reported on this site and / or UKPR. These are straight evens bets. They come right you pay me £10, if they don't I pay you. All three together, take or leave.
1. £10 Evens between today and 30th June 2014 the Conservatives will have a lead in at least one poll 2. £10 Evens between today and 31st December 2014 the Conservatives will have a 5% or more lead in at least one poll 3. £10 Evens between today and 08th May 2015 the Conservatives will have a 10% or more lead in either one opinion poll or the actual General Election the latter based on United Kingdom
Please note for the avoidance of doubt these are the published figures, not your fiddling manipulations of samples, adjustments or people who live in Surbiton.
So you want a poll outlier bet rather than an election result bet?
I thought you wouldn't be man enough to place your wallet where your over-used mouth is. I want a bet that isn't solely based on 19 months time, but timid tim won't.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
With great respect your bet proposal is rather silly and not one which anybody in their right mind would take up.
Firstly £10 is nothing. I wouldn't do any wager for less than £100 and I'm a pensioner.
Secondly polls, if they are conducted honestly, operate on a tolerance that will produce outliers 5% of the time. So of the 40+ national voting intention polls that we have each year 20 are likely to be outliers.
Thirdly you need to define much more sharply what "polls" you would include.
Why not bet on real election results - CON share at EP2014 for instance or whether the Tories will win most seats at GE2015. That's what matter not polls.
3. £10 Evens between today and 08th May 2015 the Conservatives will have a 10% or more lead in either one opinion poll or the actual General Election the latter based on United Kingdom
Go on, I'll bite on that one for a tenner. You are predicting that there will be a Con lead of 10% in any national opinion poll on UKPR between now and GE ?
@AveryLP - So the UK excluding London & SE is up by 2.3% in the last year, but I think Help to Buy only started in April, is that right?
Looks to me as though prices outside of London could be motoring way ahead of earnings by the one-year anniversary of Help to Buy [if I have my dates right].
London house prices are not being primarily affected by the Help to Buy schemes. They are responding to £83 bn of inbound investment in 2012 (see Andrew Neil tweet yesterday) in residential property by foreigners who are 'cash purchasers', i.e. not dependent on housing finance from UK lenders.
This inbound investment is having a displacement or knock-on effect on general London housing as property sellers downgrade in size or move further out of the centre.
London prices have historically been more volatile than regional prices. They peak higher in booms and trough lower during busts. Part of the recent disproportional increases in London prices may just be leading edge volatility and lagging correction of the post crash falls.
It is difficult this early to say how much of the London increases will be due to cyclical factors and how much to international investment during a period of global instability (one off distortions such as Cyprus money relocating, for example, as well as more regular investment from the new BRICS 'entrepreneurs'). With Sterling appreciating and global markets declining the velocity of inbound investment is likely to abate as is probably happening at the moment: prime London property has been falling in price since July of this year.
The Police Federation keep digging/come out fighting:
"Against this factual background, we are therefore shocked that the IPCC Commissioner, Deborah Glass, would then appoint herself judge and jury by releasing her personal view that she disagrees with the findings and asks the public to decide.
.......The public are seeing more of this type of personal outburst from an individual within a supposedly regulated and process driven body. This cannot be seen as acting in the public interest or being ‘independent’ - it is the action of someone who feels that their personal view should carry more weight than a full investigation which their own organisation supervised throughout.”"
@MichaelLCrick: Almost five hours after the IPCC condemned the investigation by West Mercia police, the area's police commissioner Bill Longmore not spoken
Michael Crick tweets: "Almost five hours after the IPCC condemned the investigation by West Mercia police, the area's police commissioner Bill Longmore not spoken"
Justice delayed is justice denied. It's fair to say that justice has been denied for Andrew Mitchell. Given the seriousness of the allegations against the police, this is a national disgrace.
If I'd be one who'd condemned Mitchell - I'd shut up about it myself and hope no one remembered...
It was fishy from the get-go and just got less plausible as the days went by. That the Met have dragged their heels and now been forced into this is just another nail in their collective coffin.
I had high hopes that Hogan-Howe would bring his broom, but clearly he didn't and West Mercia don't possess one at all.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges Scariest thing isn't officers tried to stitch up A Mitchell after meeting him. It's that W.Mercia police are still trying to cover it up.
Kevin Bakhurst @kevinbakhurst Air passenger tax of zero in Ireland from 2014 will create big differential with UK. Interesting what that means for AerLingus/BA/Ryanair?
Kevin Bakhurst @kevinbakhurst Air passenger tax of zero in Ireland from 2014 will create big differential with UK. Interesting what that means for AerLingus/BA/Ryanair?
It could mean savings of several hundred pounds for a family holidaying in Florida, to give just one consequence. Well worth a couple of hours transferring planes in the Emerald Isle.
The Police Federation keep digging/come out fighting:
"Against this factual background, we are therefore shocked that the IPCC Commissioner, Deborah Glass, would then appoint herself judge and jury by releasing her personal view that she disagrees with the findings and asks the public to decide.
.......The public are seeing more of this type of personal outburst from an individual within a supposedly regulated and process driven body. This cannot be seen as acting in the public interest or being ‘independent’ - it is the action of someone who feels that their personal view should carry more weight than a full investigation which their own organisation supervised throughout.”"
They have a point. However, they need to ask themselves *why* she felt it was necessary to speak out. Given that even a positive reading hardly showed their members behaving well and honourably, they are on slightly rocky ground.
Mitchell comes rather well out of that, methinks. He goes out of his way to give all sides a get-out - that the notes published in the Telegraph may not have been accurate. They failed to take it. It should be compared and contrasted with what the Police Fed reps said immediately afterwards. I find it slightly hard to reconcile the two...
" The race is on to find a new Deputy Speaker to work under diminutive charmer John Bercow. Seven candidates, all Tory, have put their names forward. In the words of one nameless MP, it’s “The Dwarf and Seven Snow Whites”.
The contest is entertaining because so few of the candidates seem to like their prospective boss. Simon Burns (MP for Chelmsford) once called the Speaker “a stupid, sanctimonious dwarf”. Nadine Dorries (MP for Mid Beds) once called him “oily” and “petulant”, and said he lacked “almost a single friend on the Tory benches”.
Kevin Bakhurst @kevinbakhurst Air passenger tax of zero in Ireland from 2014 will create big differential with UK. Interesting what that means for AerLingus/BA/Ryanair?
So we bailed out Ireland for them to gain competitive advantages over us on corp tax and now air passenger tax ...
Plebgate is disturbing on many levels. We've got the initial incident at the gate, then you have the phantom members of the public backing up the police story, and then you have the West Mids police fed reps doing their bit to carry on the stitch up. Its a conspiracy theory worthy of tapestry.
" The race is on to find a new Deputy Speaker to work under diminutive charmer John Bercow. Seven candidates, all Tory, have put their names forward. In the words of one nameless MP, it’s “The Dwarf and Seven Snow Whites”.
The contest is entertaining because so few of the candidates seem to like their prospective boss. Simon Burns (MP for Chelmsford) once called the Speaker “a stupid, sanctimonious dwarf”. Nadine Dorries (MP for Mid Beds) once called him “oily” and “petulant”, and said he lacked “almost a single friend on the Tory benches”.
Kevin Bakhurst @kevinbakhurst Air passenger tax of zero in Ireland from 2014 will create big differential with UK. Interesting what that means for AerLingus/BA/Ryanair?
It could mean savings of several hundred pounds for a family holidaying in Florida, to give just one consequence. Well worth a couple of hours transferring planes in the Emerald Isle.
And the great thing about going via Dublin/Shannon etc is that you clear US customs and immigration before you take off at the Irish airport so that when you arrive you avoid the long queues.
Plebgate is disturbing on many levels. We've got the initial incident at the gate, then you have the phantom members of the public backing up the police story, and then you have the West Mids police fed reps doing their bit to carry on the stitch up. Its a conspiracy theory worthy of tapestry.
The use of the word "Pleb" is the most intriguing thing. It was absolutely made for the tabloids.
Plebgate is disturbing on many levels. We've got the initial incident at the gate, then you have the phantom members of the public backing up the police story, and then you have the West Mids police fed reps doing their bit to carry on the stitch up. Its a conspiracy theory worthy of tapestry.
And it doesn't involve any old common or garden coppers, but the elite Diplomatic Protection Group.
Tim I'll wager you these based on established national opinion polls as reported on this site and / or UKPR. These are straight evens bets. They come right you pay me £10, if they don't I pay you. All three together, take or leave.
1. £10 Evens between today and 30th June 2014 the Conservatives will have a lead in at least one poll 2. £10 Evens between today and 31st December 2014 the Conservatives will have a 5% or more lead in at least one poll 3. £10 Evens between today and 08th May 2015 the Conservatives will have a 10% or more lead in either one opinion poll or the actual General Election the latter based on United Kingdom
Please note for the avoidance of doubt these are the published figures, not your fiddling manipulations of samples, adjustments or people who live in Surbiton.
So you want a poll outlier bet rather than an election result bet?
I thought you wouldn't be man enough to place your wallet where your over-used mouth is. I want a bet that isn't solely based on 19 months time, but timid tim won't.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
With great respect your bet proposal is rather silly and not one which anybody in their right mind would take up.
Firstly £10 is nothing. I wouldn't do any wager for less than £100 and I'm a pensioner.
Secondly polls, if they are conducted honestly, operate on a tolerance that will produce outliers 5% of the time. So of the 400+ national voting intention polls that we have each year 20 are likely to be outliers.
Thirdly you need to define much more sharply what "polls" you would include.
Why not bet on real election results - CON share at EP2014 for instance or whether the Tories will win most seats at GE2015. That's what matter not polls.
You mean, of course, 400+ national voting intention polls.
If he was willing to frame his bet in terms of the monthly average - of all polls included in the UKPR table, say - then that would largely eliminate the potential for outliers to skew the results.
Edited to mak clear that there are 400+ polls a year
And the great thing about going via Dublin/Shannon etc is that you clear US customs and immigration before you take off at the Irish airport so that when you arrive you avoid the long queues.
It's a wonder why they don't do that in Heathrow. Maybe a space issue.
At any point Cameron could've produced the evidence to clear Mitchell, why did he choose not to?
Yawn. Perhaps:
a) Did he have the right to release it? Which branch of government owned the tape, and would it have been right to use it for what is obviously party-political purposes?
b) If the government had released it at that time, many (including you, I bet) wouldn't have believed it, and just said that it was a 'feeble attempt by a coward to clear a toff', or some such nonsense.
c) At that time, some people were still seemingly busy creating their tissue of lies.Releasing information early may not have stopped the story, especially in that insane atmosphere. The liars may just have changed their story to incorporate the new counter-evidence. It may have been judged better to let them keep digging and wait for the story to cool down.
d) Cameron was facing pressure from all sides: by backing Mitchell, he was implying that the police were lying. He backed Mitchell for as long as he could.
Play your best hand at the most opportune moment.
It's hard to deal with people who are willing to lie so spectacularly. I can't see what Cameron could have done in the situation that you would not now be criticising.
Plebgate is disturbing on many levels. We've got the initial incident at the gate, then you have the phantom members of the public backing up the police story, and then you have the West Mids police fed reps doing their bit to carry on the stitch up. Its a conspiracy theory worthy of tapestry.
And it doesn't involve any old common or garden coppers, but the elite Diplomatic Protection Group.
And the Prime Minister and Cabinet Secretary who reviewed the cctv footage.
@AveryLP - With apologies, but my question was entirely about the housing market outside London and the SE.
Any comments?
So the UK excluding London & SE is up by 2.3% in the last year, but I think Help to Buy only started in April, is that right?
Looks to me as though prices outside of London could be motoring way ahead of earnings by the one-year anniversary of Help to Buy [if I have my dates right].
Plebgate is disturbing on many levels. We've got the initial incident at the gate, then you have the phantom members of the public backing up the police story, and then you have the West Mids police fed reps doing their bit to carry on the stitch up. Its a conspiracy theory worthy of tapestry.
The use of the word "Pleb" is the most intriguing thing. It was absolutely made for the tabloids.
Didn't one of his colleagues confirm it was a word Mitchell has used in other situations?
And youve got a police commissioner elected on about 6% first preferences who appointed his mate as a deputy within about five minutes haven't you. That was money well spent
It may well have been money extremely well spent, given that we now know even more than we did before about the abysmal standards of probity and decency at various levels of the police. A smidgen of democratically accountable oversight is exactly what is needed.
And the great thing about going via Dublin/Shannon etc is that you clear US customs and immigration before you take off at the Irish airport so that when you arrive you avoid the long queues.
It's a wonder why they don't do that in Heathrow. Maybe a space issue.
I'm not sure but it may be something to do with handing sovereign territory over to a foreign power. Post immigration at Dublin/Shannon, you are legally on US territory. And the police carry guns!
Harry Smith @stvharry Spotted in Krakow - Proof - Polish money changers say Scots are worth 60 zlotys or £12 - less than the English pic.twitter.com/af6Zqk96A8
The silly camp leftie paper reviewer on Sky made a statement after the CCTV came out that they should all sit down and mend their differences, it was a little, unimportant story!!!!!!!!
"The IPCC's statement today represents a profound vindication for Andrew Mitchell and his family.
It is lamentable but undoubtedly true, as the IPCC has concluded, that Mr Mitchell has been the victim of wholly unacceptable behaviour by some police officers, a wrong compounded by the woeful inadequacy of the police investigation into this misconduct.
I hope that this will at last lead to effective action by the employing police forces concerned, and to Mr Mitchell being able to resume his full contribution to British political life. I also hope that the officers concerned might be big enough to apologise."
So you're expecting lower standards of the PM and the Cabinet Secretary reviewing CCTV than you would do of a local newsagent.
You'd be wondering why a local newsagent sat on the CCTV for months while knowing he had evidence that was highly significant, yet you think Cameron should operate at a lower standard.
Does CCTV have subtitles in your area? Blimey it's v sophisticated.
So you want a poll outlier bet rather than an election result bet?
I thought you wouldn't be man enough to place your wallet where your over-used mouth is. I want a bet that isn't solely based on 19 months time, but timid tim won't.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
With great respect your bet proposal is rather silly and not one which anybody in their right mind would take up.
Firstly £10 is nothing. I wouldn't do any wager for less than £100 and I'm a pensioner.
Secondly polls, if they are conducted honestly, operate on a tolerance that will produce outliers 5% of the time. So of the 400+ national voting intention polls that we have each year 20 are likely to be outliers.
Thirdly you need to define much more sharply what "polls" you would include.
Why not bet on real election results - CON share at EP2014 for instance or whether the Tories will win most seats at GE2015. That's what matter not polls.
You mean, of course, 400+ national voting intention polls.
If he was willing to frame his bet in terms of the monthly average - of all polls included in the UKPR table, say - then that would largely eliminate the potential for outliers to skew the results.
Edited to mak clear that there are 400+ polls a year
Yes I'd be happy to do something along those lines but Mike is gunning against me on everything at the moment, mainly because his meme is unravelling before his eyes. The narrowing of the gap between the two main parties must be terribly inconvenient. Thread after thread for months has been predicated on this not happening. Another is the idea of correlating national GE election with the Euro elections. Nope, I'm not touching the latter because there are too many variables to translate across.
The idea that two pb thredders can only wager with each other above £100 is one of several extremely daft comments you've made this week Mike. I don't know if you've just got out of bed the wrong side but you're not doing yourself any favours.
Back to the wager, which I note totalled £30, I could envisage something based on means but Tim seems to be running scared.
So you're expecting lower standards of the PM and the Cabinet Secretary reviewing CCTV than you would do of a local newsagent.
You'd be wondering why a local newsagent sat on the CCTV for months while knowing he had evidence that was highly significant, yet you think Cameron should operate at a lower standard.
Does CCTV have subtitles in your area? Blimey it's v sophisticated.
The CCTV directly contradicted the police log - which stated that member's of the public were at the gates and witnessed the "plebs" comment. It was highly significant evidence.
So you're expecting lower standards of the PM and the Cabinet Secretary reviewing CCTV than you would do of a local newsagent.
You'd be wondering why a local newsagent sat on the CCTV for months while knowing he had evidence that was highly significant, yet you think Cameron should operate at a lower standard.
Does CCTV have subtitles in your area? Blimey it's v sophisticated.
And Cameron knew that.
Funny how you are focussing on Cameron's failure as a policeman, rather than the police's.....
Quite so. How any of those involved can remain police officers is completely baffling.
Would you dare sack them and risk the entire DPG walking out in sympathy? Politicians are terrified of that outcome. See 'Operation Kratos' for further reference.
So you're expecting lower standards of the PM and the Cabinet Secretary reviewing CCTV than you would do of a local newsagent.
You'd be wondering why a local newsagent sat on the CCTV for months while knowing he had evidence that was highly significant, yet you think Cameron should operate at a lower standard.
You are an absolute disgrace.
A local shopkeeper probably wouldn't have been facing a hostile press, police who were still forming their lies, and asshats such as yourself who still cannot face the truth.
As I said before, there is nothing that Cameron could have done which you would not now be criticising, as you always feel fit to see the worst in the bloke.
And you should really think of asking Mike or a moderator to pull that comment you made earlier. That comment indicates a sick mind.
So you're expecting lower standards of the PM and the Cabinet Secretary reviewing CCTV than you would do of a local newsagent.
You'd be wondering why a local newsagent sat on the CCTV for months while knowing he had evidence that was highly significant, yet you think Cameron should operate at a lower standard.
Does CCTV have subtitles in your area? Blimey it's v sophisticated.
The key point wa this
"But perhaps most importantly, the Telegraph log says there were eyewitnesses to the incident who were "visibly shocked". The CCTV footage shows just one man wandering up and down, but he doesn't appear to be showing any particular interest in the incident, or to be shocked. That does undermine the police log."
Politics aside, and let's ignore Cameron and the CCTV footage for now, Plebgate should really be beyond partisan squabbles now. It absolutely beggars belief that serving, supposedly elite, coppers thought they could get away with this. It's frightening, and will do untold damage to every police force in the country. Heads really need to roll for this, maybe even prison time, and I say this as someone who thought Mitchell should resign, initially.
Yes I'd be happy to do something along those lines but Mike is gunning against me on everything at the moment, mainly because his meme is unravelling before his eyes. The narrowing of the gap between the two main parties must be terribly inconvenient. Thread after thread for months has been predicated on this not happening.
You are simply not paying attention.
The opinion polls as they stand would result in an overall Labour majority, if repeated at the General Election. As Mike has stated, this would be the worst possible outcome for the bets that he has made, and so the narrowing of the gap is highly convenient for the profitability of the bets he has placed.
Your desperation to see a Tory majority is skewing your perception of other people's motives. The whole point of pb.com is to try to rationally analyse things so that the cool-headed punter can make money betting when partisans such as yourself bet when blinded by hope.
"Mr Mitchell is therefore claiming that a police officer is lying in an official report – making a very serious allegation about that officer’s truthfulness. If the officer’s report is correct, then Mr Mitchell is not only failing to behave with the integrity that the Code of Conduct demands, he is also impugning the integrity of a police officer who has done nothing wrong."
Politics aside, and let's ignore Cameron and the CCTV footage for now, Plebgate should really be beyond partisan squabbles now. It absolutely beggars belief that serving, supposedly elite, coppers thought they could get away with this. It's frightening, and will do untold damage to every police force in the country. Heads really need to roll for this, maybe even prison time, and I say this as someone who thought Mitchell should resign, initially.
Standards collapsed during the 13 year New Labour occupation . The rot of corruption reached South American levels. We can only hope that the Coalition is cleaning up the putrid mess left behind by the deliquents.
Politics aside, and let's ignore Cameron and the CCTV footage for now, Plebgate should really be beyond partisan squabbles now. It absolutely beggars belief that serving, supposedly elite, coppers thought they could get away with this. It's frightening, and will do untold damage to every police force in the country. Heads really need to roll for this, maybe even prison time, and I say this as someone who thought Mitchell should resign, initially.
Well said! If 'nice middle class' people are thinking 'If they can stitch up a senior politician they can stitch up me' imagine what the less privileged are having confirmed to them in spades....
I must say, Tim's attempts to turn "plebgate" into a story about David Cameron rather than a story about a police stitch-up is really quite lamentable and desperate.
Am I the only one who has noticed a clear decline in Tim's output in recent week's? He hit the Big 10,000 and lost of mojo.
What cracks me up is that some see Cameron and the CCTV as a far bigger issue than police corruption to bring down a member of a democratically elected government. Says it all really.
Comments
Theresa May says it is "quite wrong" of @WMerciaPolice not to take disciplinary proceedings against officers who met Mitchell #plebgate
Dominic Casciani @BBCDomC
Home Sec: Number of cases that has questioned police ethics & standards: Plebgate, Hillsborough etc.
I can't recall a recent case that's been so appalling? If you can be allegedly fitted up by Diplomatic Protection Unit who are by implication men of superior integrity whilst standing on Downing St - what hope for the rest of us little people?
Some very amusing gifs in that link, Miss Plato.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10380523/Birmingham-is-national-disgrace-says-Ofsted-chief-inspector.html
Sean O'Neill @TimesCrime
.@CommonsHomeAffs will call chief of @WMerciaPolice to give evidence on #plebgate inquiry next week
http://www.westmercia-pcc.gov.uk/News-and-Events/Events-Calendar.aspx?EventsCalendar__EventDateSpan=ThisMonth
Whomever is giving them PR advice needs shooting now.
And, the only mice I've ever had in the house have been brought into the house by the damn cat wanting to play with something.
This cat will be my last.
I'm surprised he's so unconfident in Ed!
Wait for IOS given his posts last night, he'll bite your hand off for such a generous offer Mr. R.
You just keep talking about outliers, adjustments and samples Tim. Saddo.
For future ref - if you find a fledgling it needs to go into a bush or hedge a few feet off the ground. Or if like me you have domesticated birds like canaries with their own brood and add them into the nest.
I found a week old dicky and my canaries raised it with their own and I let it go about 3 weeks later. It really didn't want to stay - but the canary chicks were happy as larry - I had no idea how much domestication affected them.
No need for that though - tim is the 'grit' in the oyster to some and basically a hoot for many with his obsessions. He doesn't even get moderated as much these days as mellowed over time.
Not that long then .... the eu flounce I believe - but of course before the omnishambles budget which cost the blues the election.... should be plain sailing therefore from now on then?
BREAKING NEWS:Home secretary says West Mercia Police 'quite wrong not to take action' against officers after IPCC 'Plebgate' report
Birmingham, Britain’s second city, has been branded a “national disgrace” and one of the worst places to grow up in the developed world by Sir Michael Wilshaw, the Ofsted chief inspector.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10380523/Birmingham-is-national-disgrace-says-Ofsted-chief-inspector.html
Horta-Osorio, Lloyds CEO, is the strongest advocate of government support for the housing and housing finance markets in the banking industry. He is not opposed to the Help to Buy schemes but rather arguing for an extension of government support: increased building of both private sector and social housing; reduced planning and building controls; and an increased focus on the housing markets outside London and the South East.
As the Sky News article makes clear, Horta-Osorio believes the Funds for Lending and two Help to Buy Schemes are "well-timed", will not lead to a housing bubble, and, are "absolutely the right thing to do".
I will post a table of house prices increases under Labour and the Coalition governments in a follow up comment. It is an updated version of a table previously posted revised to include data from the latest ONS Housing Price Index release.
What the table will show is that house prices in the decade prior to the financial crash averaged 11.3% per year. This was matched by similar increases in net mortgage lending by the UK banks and mortgage lenders and essentially to a real housing bubble.
By contrast, house prices since 2010 have only increased by an annual average of 1.6%. In Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland house prices have not yet recovered the value they had in 2007 in nominal let alone real terms. In England, excluding London and the South East, the house price index is only 1% above its nominal level in 2007. At the same time net mortgage lending has been flat and over the past year has declined as households have paid down mortgage loans faster than new loans have been taken out. The average mortgage loan approved fell in value over the past month suggesting that whatever price increases are being experience are not being fuelled by credit.
We do know that prices in London have increased by an average of 5.7% over the past three years and 9.1% in the past year, but this has been mainly driven by foreign investors making cash purchases of prime central property (as discussed on yesterday's thread). The increases in London are not credit fuelled. It should also be noted that London prices declined further from a lower historical base during the crash and are currently falling. At the time of the crash the London ONS HPI was 13.4 points below the UK average: today is 18 points above.
As Danny Alexander has said, the UK is a million miles away from a housing price and credit bubble.
They are so incredibly tiny - I can't imagine they'd survive a winter, yet alone a harsh one. Does anyone know if such small toads are unusual at this time of year?
Looks to me as though prices outside of London could be motoring way ahead of earnings by the one-year anniversary of Help to Buy [if I have my dates right].
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/andrew-mitchell-is-toast-says-labour-1384915
Almost a year to the day, since Ed M said Mitchell was toast. Can plodgate rebound on Cooper and Miliband?
A bet that takes 19 months to materialise is a bore, like you, so amend my 3 wagers if you've got any spine left in you.
Firstly £10 is nothing. I wouldn't do any wager for less than £100 and I'm a pensioner.
Secondly polls, if they are conducted honestly, operate on a tolerance that will produce outliers 5% of the time. So of the 40+ national voting intention polls that we have each year 20 are likely to be outliers.
Thirdly you need to define much more sharply what "polls" you would include.
Why not bet on real election results - CON share at EP2014 for instance or whether the Tories will win most seats at GE2015. That's what matter not polls.
No. Looks like they jumped to conclusions about how horrible and nasty a tory was without hearing all the evidence.
They do that all the time.
I say there won't be. £10 Evens - like you said.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2 <- This table at GE2015.
This inbound investment is having a displacement or knock-on effect on general London housing as property sellers downgrade in size or move further out of the centre.
London prices have historically been more volatile than regional prices. They peak higher in booms and trough lower during busts. Part of the recent disproportional increases in London prices may just be leading edge volatility and lagging correction of the post crash falls.
It is difficult this early to say how much of the London increases will be due to cyclical factors and how much to international investment during a period of global instability (one off distortions such as Cyprus money relocating, for example, as well as more regular investment from the new BRICS 'entrepreneurs'). With Sterling appreciating and global markets declining the velocity of inbound investment is likely to abate as is probably happening at the moment: prime London property has been falling in price since July of this year.
http://video.uk.msn.com/watch/video/miliband-andrew-mitchell-is-toast/2i5gyuph
More toast with your Cooper's jam?
"Against this factual background, we are therefore shocked that the IPCC Commissioner, Deborah Glass, would then appoint herself judge and jury by releasing her personal view that she disagrees with the findings and asks the public to decide.
.......The public are seeing more of this type of personal outburst from an individual within a supposedly regulated and process driven body. This cannot be seen as acting in the public interest or being ‘independent’ - it is the action of someone who feels that their personal view should carry more weight than a full investigation which their own organisation supervised throughout.”"
http://centrallobby.politicshome.com/members/member-press/member-press-details/newsarticle/police-federation-response-to-ipcc-statement-on-investigation-of-federation-representatives/sites/police-federation-of-england-wales/
Most people just believed the Police, initially.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ruthdudleyedwards/100241442/grayson-perry-may-dress-as-a-woman-but-hes-got-the-balls-to-take-on-the-ludicrous-modern-art-establishment/
If I'd be one who'd condemned Mitchell - I'd shut up about it myself and hope no one remembered...
It was fishy from the get-go and just got less plausible as the days went by. That the Met have dragged their heels and now been forced into this is just another nail in their collective coffin.
I had high hopes that Hogan-Howe would bring his broom, but clearly he didn't and West Mercia don't possess one at all.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
Scariest thing isn't officers tried to stitch up A Mitchell after meeting him. It's that W.Mercia police are still trying to cover it up.
More polls needed!
It never learns.
So you are incorrect.
Kevin Bakhurst @kevinbakhurst
Air passenger tax of zero in Ireland from 2014 will create big differential with UK. Interesting what that means for AerLingus/BA/Ryanair?
I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, but there's a transcript of the meeting:
http://www.ipcc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/investigation_commissioner_reports/Transcript of meeting.pdf
Mitchell comes rather well out of that, methinks. He goes out of his way to give all sides a get-out - that the notes published in the Telegraph may not have been accurate. They failed to take it. It should be compared and contrasted with what the Police Fed reps said immediately afterwards. I find it slightly hard to reconcile the two...
And it should perhaps be taken into context:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-19727001
Idiots.
The contest is entertaining because so few of the candidates seem to like their prospective boss. Simon Burns (MP for Chelmsford) once called the Speaker “a stupid, sanctimonious dwarf”. Nadine Dorries (MP for Mid Beds) once called him “oily” and “petulant”, and said he lacked “almost a single friend on the Tory benches”.
The new Deputy Speaker will be elected by fellow MPs rather than picked by Mr Bercow. Probably for the best, as he would no doubt have felt spoilt for choice. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10380851/Sketch-They-all-want-the-job.-Just-one-little-problem....html
Why I'm not a massive fan of bailouts tbh.
It looks like the police can't stand the government.
Elected police commissioners?
If he was willing to frame his bet in terms of the monthly average - of all polls included in the UKPR table, say - then that would largely eliminate the potential for outliers to skew the results.
Edited to mak clear that there are 400+ polls a year
As for betting stakes, I never reveal mine, but I certainly wouldn't consider £10 to be a small stake.
a) Did he have the right to release it? Which branch of government owned the tape, and would it have been right to use it for what is obviously party-political purposes?
b) If the government had released it at that time, many (including you, I bet) wouldn't have believed it, and just said that it was a 'feeble attempt by a coward to clear a toff', or some such nonsense.
c) At that time, some people were still seemingly busy creating their tissue of lies.Releasing information early may not have stopped the story, especially in that insane atmosphere. The liars may just have changed their story to incorporate the new counter-evidence. It may have been judged better to let them keep digging and wait for the story to cool down.
d) Cameron was facing pressure from all sides: by backing Mitchell, he was implying that the police were lying. He backed Mitchell for as long as he could.
Play your best hand at the most opportune moment.
It's hard to deal with people who are willing to lie so spectacularly. I can't see what Cameron could have done in the situation that you would not now be criticising.
Any comments?
So the UK excluding London & SE is up by 2.3% in the last year, but I think Help to Buy only started in April, is that right?
Looks to me as though prices outside of London could be motoring way ahead of earnings by the one-year anniversary of Help to Buy [if I have my dates right].
Ugh
Spotted in Krakow - Proof - Polish money changers say Scots are worth 60 zlotys or £12 - less than the English pic.twitter.com/af6Zqk96A8
The silly camp leftie paper reviewer on Sky made a statement after the CCTV came out that they should all sit down and mend their differences, it was a little, unimportant story!!!!!!!!
http://www.ipcc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/investigation_commissioner_reports/Transcript of meeting.pdf
Then I've watched the clip of what they said to the cameras afterwards.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24536328
It is a disgrace of the highest order.
No mention of Cameron being part of it however which is odd given my solid sources.
If memory serves, one of the people arrested was not a copper.
Anyway, this all stinks and strikes me as something right out of the mid-90s playbook.
"The IPCC's statement today represents a profound vindication for Andrew Mitchell and his family.
It is lamentable but undoubtedly true, as the IPCC has concluded, that Mr Mitchell has been the victim of wholly unacceptable behaviour by some police officers, a wrong compounded by the woeful inadequacy of the police investigation into this misconduct.
I hope that this will at last lead to effective action by the employing police forces concerned, and to Mr Mitchell being able to resume his full contribution to British political life. I also hope that the officers concerned might be big enough to apologise."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/15/cameron-launches-plan-to-cut-eu-red-tape-politics-live-blog#block-525d61d0e4b0667d2b3c66cc
Does CCTV have subtitles in your area? Blimey it's v sophisticated.
The idea that two pb thredders can only wager with each other above £100 is one of several extremely daft comments you've made this week Mike. I don't know if you've just got out of bed the wrong side but you're not doing yourself any favours.
Back to the wager, which I note totalled £30, I could envisage something based on means but Tim seems to be running scared.
Mind you, no wonder you're so O/T as well. The polls not quite working for you lefties right now are they?
A local shopkeeper probably wouldn't have been facing a hostile press, police who were still forming their lies, and asshats such as yourself who still cannot face the truth.
As I said before, there is nothing that Cameron could have done which you would not now be criticising, as you always feel fit to see the worst in the bloke.
And you should really think of asking Mike or a moderator to pull that comment you made earlier. That comment indicates a sick mind.
In other words, however badly the police behaved, will voters still blame the government?
It's frightening, and will do untold damage to every police force in the country. Heads really need to roll for this, maybe even prison time, and I say this as someone who thought Mitchell should resign, initially.
The opinion polls as they stand would result in an overall Labour majority, if repeated at the General Election. As Mike has stated, this would be the worst possible outcome for the bets that he has made, and so the narrowing of the gap is highly convenient for the profitability of the bets he has placed.
Your desperation to see a Tory majority is skewing your perception of other people's motives. The whole point of pb.com is to try to rationally analyse things so that the cool-headed punter can make money betting when partisans such as yourself bet when blinded by hope.
"Mr Mitchell is therefore claiming that a police officer is lying in an official report – making a very serious allegation about that officer’s truthfulness. If the officer’s report is correct, then Mr Mitchell is not only failing to behave with the integrity that the Code of Conduct demands, he is also impugning the integrity of a police officer who has done nothing wrong."
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/09/24/labour-complaint-over-andrew-mitchell-over-plebgate/
Am I the only one who has noticed a clear decline in Tim's output in recent week's? He hit the Big 10,000 and lost of mojo.
Do you have any hard evidence of that? I've never seen any.
I think new labour were, as with health and education, firmly on the side of the producer rather than the consumer.
The police were plodding along nicking middle class motorists to make up the numbers and labour were happy to let them.
Elected police commissioners must have come as a rather nasty surprise.