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Scott_P said:

HYUFD said:

There is no chance of May calling an election until the end of 2019 once May invokes Article 50 next month, the negotiations will be too time consuming

That's why I said Corbyn.

if we had a functional opposition, there would be more chance of an election

No there would not, May has an extremely tough 2 years of negotiations coming up and she is not going to risk a parliamentary majority and have the distraction of a general election campaign when she has that to focus on, regardless of who leads Labour

chestnut said:

another_richard said:

Interesting that George Osborne is now on the Black Rock payroll.

This is what Black Rock predicted about the UK economy on 14th July:

' Britain will be plunged into a recession this year and be plagued with lower economic growth for another five years because of the shock decision for the UK to leave the EU, BlackRock analysts have said.

BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world with $4.6 trillion under management as of 2015. Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist, has said that firm's "base case" is recession, meaning at a minimum, it expects the UK GDP to fall for two successive quarters in a row. '

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-will-plunge-the-uk-into-a-recession-in-the-next-year-blackrock-says-a7134616.html

http://www.private-eye.co.uk/issue-1436/news

You scratch my back and .....

tyson said:

isam said:

What the referendum has revealed is that certain people were right all along; There really was nothing between the three major parties 2010-2015.

The country may be divided now, but it always was... the phoney war between Orange bookers, Blairites and Cameroons provided a smokescreen that let them stay in power as long as they acted out their roles without the public noticing

An exceptionally clever post...I don't agree with it, but I get your insight.....

Thank you! I will mark today on the calendar in the way I do when I have good fortune on my side in betting to remind me that sometimes people are complimentary on here!

isam said:

HYUFD said:

Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

Le Pen is mightier than le fraud

Bravo mon ami

chestnut said:

When we vote for the Commons, we know that it's for five years and we have to live with it.

Why not do something similar with referendums? It's the same basic principle as the FTPA.

The subjects have longer term consequences so we accept that we live with it for a longer period. It should transcend party politics.

We have now had three referendums in the last five years. On each occasion the voters have been told it's a generational vote. Then, lo and behold, the losing side spends it's time saying it isn't. That's destabilising and disruptive.

The reality of Scotland, rather than your scenario, is perpetual calls for another referendum with little real sign that there is any great zest for it.

We have a situation now where some want referendums banned because they don't like the outcomes and then a situation where people want them constantly re-run, usually because they lost.

The answer has to be somewhere in the middle with due consideration given to the significance of the topic.

People must be allowed a say, but it's hugely disruptive to go back to the same subjects too frequently, especially where the subject is a very deep one like membership of the UK or the EU.

It's just a thought.

I don't see any great feeling within the UK or Scotland for quick re-runs of referendums.

If we re ran the referendum what do you think the turnout would be? 60%?

https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/832705144286539777

I've laid Macron @ 2.56/8 for my max exposure, which isn't that much.

I really wish I could read French.

chestnut said:

isam said:

chestnut said:

When we vote for the Commons, we know that it's for five years and we have to live with it.

Why not do something similar with referendums? It's the same basic principle as the FTPA.

The subjects have longer term consequences so we accept that we live with it for a longer period. It should transcend party politics.

We have now had three referendums in the last five years. On each occasion the voters have been told it's a generational vote. Then, lo and behold, the losing side spends it's time saying it isn't. That's destabilising and disruptive.

The reality of Scotland, rather than your scenario, is perpetual calls for another referendum with little real sign that there is any great zest for it.

We have a situation now where some want referendums banned because they don't like the outcomes and then a situation where people want them constantly re-run, usually because they lost.

The answer has to be somewhere in the middle with due consideration given to the significance of the topic.

People must be allowed a say, but it's hugely disruptive to go back to the same subjects too frequently, especially where the subject is a very deep one like membership of the UK or the EU.

It's just a thought.

I don't see any great feeling within the UK or Scotland for quick re-runs of referendums.

If we re ran the referendum what do you think the turnout would be? 60%?

I expect it would be down.

The idea that we ask the people and then keep asking them because we don't like the answer is a bad one. It's corrosive for democracy and public trust.

Democracy is just the means to an end for some people and can be dispensed with if it doesn't produce the 'right' answer.

Scott_P said:

HYUFD said:

No there would not, May has an extremely tough 2 years of negotiations coming up and she is not going to risk a parliamentary majority and have the distraction of a general election campaign when she has that to focus on, regardless of who leads Labour

If we had a functional opposition it would not be her choice. that's the point.

I remember a Spitting image sketch when Maggie says to Kinnock that a "tiny willied cringing vegetable was exactly what we needed for HM's opposition."

SeanT said:

OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Buy some land, plant some trees. A legacy for your daughters and future generations.

SquareRoot said:

26% for le pen.. is that an all time high % for the FNF???

No, she touched 27% in a couple of polls earlier in the week and topped 30% in a poll last June.

SeanT said:

OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Max your ISA's. Open and fill child ISA's for your kids. Invest n venture capital funds ( big tax rebates)

SandyRentool said:

SeanT said:

OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Buy some land, plant some trees. A legacy for your daughters and future generations.

Buy a house next to J.K Rowling and build a big ugly block of council flats.

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/832628150353817601

Just catching up on these numbers, was otherwise engaged earlier this evening. Appear on the whole to be similar to last weeks'. Breakdown by age still truly appalling for Labour:

Pensioners: Con 60%, Ukip 14%, Lab 11%, LD 8%
50-64: Con 49%, Lab 19%, Ukip 17%, LD 11%

May vs Corbyn:
Pensioners: May 75%, Corbyn 7%
50-64: May 59%, Corbyn 10%

Important:
(a) Median age of whole UK population recently passed 40, so would guess that of voters is somewhere close to 50 by now.
(b) The older half of the electorate is substantially more likely to bother to turn out in the first place.

Other observations:

1. The social class gap in voting intention for Labour and the Tories has evaporated: ABC1s and C2DEs both prefer the Conservatives over Labour by similar margins. The main difference is now that the Liberal Democrats are the third party, ahead of Ukip, for the ABC1s; whereas Ukip are in a statistical dead heat with Labour as second party for the C2DEs.
2. The pattern of women being somewhat more sceptical about Theresa May (though not any more sympathetic to Jeremy Corbyn) than men, and of women continuing to support Labour in greater numbers than men, is maintained. The non-Conservative vote is even more fragmented amongst men than women, and I continue to maintain that, if Labour is mauled rather than routed at the next general election, it may well owe its survival to the dogged loyalty of (probably younger) female voters.
3. The Scottish sub-sample (albeit very small) gives a similar result to the recent Panelbase Scotland-specific poll, with the SNP cornering about half the vote, the Tories a very distant second in the upper twenties, and Labour shipwrecked in the mid-teens. Meanwhile, in Southern England outside of London (with nearly four times as many seats as Scotland,) the Tories have half the vote and the three main challenger parties are all sub 20%.
4. As continues to be the case in the majority of national VI surveys, Ukip scores above Anti-Ukip - in this case 15% vs 11% - despite the shambolic state of the former. If there is a massive groundswell of Continuity Remain sentiment in the general population then it is stubbornly refusing to reveal itself.

SeanT said:

OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Put it on the horses.

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.

That was the most dreadful piece of bollocks you wrote this morning. Sorry. But as a professional writer, I just have to be honest. You can be witty and sharp, and you have a good memory for an apposite quote, but there's a reason you are a lawyer not a writer, and that shite this morning was a bilious piece of dreck.

So bad, you keep commenting on it; as did many others. Writer gets reaction, bin him. Nah. You look out for Mr Meeks. He does something to you. It's the same with quite a few on here. OGH should be selling ad space against his pieces. No-one else engages the readership like he does.

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

SeanT said:

OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Buy some land, plant some trees. A legacy for your daughters and future generations.

Interesting. I have a very canny Chinese friend in Bangkok, daughter of a millionaire, niece of a multi-millionaire, and a hugely successful businesswoman in her own right.

And that was her advice. Buy Land. In fact she wants me to join with her in buying some land in Napa, California. She reckons it is undervalued.

Those Chinese know about money. Them and the Jews. I may do what she says.

Sonoma is nicer.

And get some advice on AIM investment.

SeanT said:

tyson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.

Alistair...I don't know why you even bother getting into a dialogue with the likes of the very clearly inadequate seant. You wrote a very good article this morning, all he can write is shit, crass, inane or stupid shit.

In the long run we will win...it might take some time...but bigotry, small mindedness, blind ideology and nastiness just aren't compatible with human evolution...

Ah, shit you say? Perhaps so.

But if I do write shit it is shit that is number 7 in the German bestseller lists, this week.

http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/literatur/spiegel-bestseller-taschenbuecher-a-1025518.html


And also number 14 in Germany at the same time (different book)

http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/literatur/spiegel-bestseller-paperback-a-1025444.html


And also number 9 in Finland. And number 2 in your local Sainsburys. Number 3 in Brazil. Go check. That's THIS WEEK

You? I don't know what you do. Fuck dogs or something? I forget. I think you lack purpose since your retirement from your total non-career. If you need advice email me on Vanilla. I like to help.

I have to say, embarrassingly, that I bought one off your books...the Ice Twins....the concept of twins was interesting. But I couldn't get through the first few pages...it wasn't just crap and dross and badly written and tedious...it was worse. It was sad and pathetic. It actually made me feel bad about myself for wasting my time reading it. But you are in good company,,,,,,I once started the DeVinci Code and felt much the same.

But well done you for selling it...and making good money. Publishing novels is probably as competitive as it gets, so on that regard you are exceptional.

SouthamObserver said:

Alastair has a following. The only contributor who does.

*cough*Marf*cough*

SouthamObserver said:

So which one of them has the story he doesn't want published or run?

And why is he not on the same side as the American People?

Evening all!

Given that Tony "Warmonger" Blair hates Brexit so much, that surely means it's the right thing to do!

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.

That was the most dreadful piece of bollocks you wrote this morning. Sorry. But as a professional writer, I just have to be honest. You can be witty and sharp, and you have a good memory for an apposite quote, but there's a reason you are a lawyer not a writer, and that shite this morning was a bilious piece of dreck.

So bad, you keep commenting on it; as did many others. Writer gets reaction, bin him. Nah. You look out for Mr Meeks. He does something to you. It's the same with quite a few on here. OGH should be selling ad space against his pieces. No-one else engages the readership like he does.

Nah, it was drivel.

But you read it. And you'll read the next one he writes; then comment on it. Many others will, too. Meeks, they'll call him as they say how wrong he is. Alastair has a following. The only contributor who does.

Actually no. This was the first one where I gave up. It was pitiful.

Meeks is a good amateur writer but Brexit is sending him bonkers. Cf that amazing A C Grayling rant in the New European. Borderline crazy. And, like Meeks, he's a clever man.

It's a definite phenomenon. One day it will be diagnosed and given a special name. The psychosis that ensues when western intellectual liberal elites lose for the first time ever. Matthew Parris exhibits similar symptoms. As for Ian Dunt, his brain should be embalmed and sliced up and cross sections put in the Wellcome museum.

At GE 2015 there were 2 or 3 scenarios

Cameroon Majority
Cameroon/Orange Book Coalition
Blairite/Orange Book Coalition

The three protagonists magnified the tiny differences in their philosophies to kid the public they were representing different strands of opinion, safe in the knowledge that whoever won, the status quo would remain.

Then Dave called the referendum... KABOOM!!!

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

SeanT said:

OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Buy some land, plant some trees. A legacy for your daughters and future generations.

Buy a house next to J.K Rowling and build a big ugly block of council flats.

lol! Superb.

Seriously. You could always give back in terms of charity (not saying you don't already) you've come along way since your addict days and giving to say a rehabilitation centre or something will make you feel good inside.

another_richard said:

"Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. "

Not yet, tick, tick, not yet, expected soon, tick.

Not bad so far, given that the forecast was explicitly over two years.

NumbrCrunchrPolitics

A real no cruncher would be able to transpose a table. The SNP vote is 6 (no change)

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.

That was the most dreadful piece of bollocks you wrote this morning. Sorry. But as a professional writer, I just have to be honest. You can be witty and sharp, and you have a good memory for an apposite quote, but there's a reason you are a lawyer not a writer, and that shite this morning was a bilious piece of dreck.

So bad, you keep commenting on it; as did many others. Writer gets reaction, bin him. Nah. You look out for Mr Meeks. He does something to you. It's the same with quite a few on here. OGH should be selling ad space against his pieces. No-one else engages the readership like he does.

Nah, it was drivel.

But you read it. And you'll read the next one he writes; then comment on it. Many others will, too. Meeks, they'll call him as they say how wrong he is. Alastair has a following. The only contributor who does.

Actually no. This was the first one where I gave up. It was pitiful.

Meeks is a good amateur writer but Brexit is sending him bonkers. Cf that amazing A C Grayling rant in the New European. Borderline crazy. And, like Meeks, he's a clever man.

It's a definite phenomenon. One day it will be diagnosed and given a special name. The psychosis that ensues when western intellectual liberal elites lose for the first time ever. Matthew Parris exhibits similar symptoms. As for Ian Dunt, his brain should be embalmed and sliced up and cross sections put in the Wellcome museum.

Its the mentality of French aristocrats in 1789.

The world was configured in a way agreeable to themselves and they thought it would be always such.

And then it was changed.

And even worse changed by people they despise.

Perhaps Chinese mandarins and intellectuals in the 19th century when they encountered aggressive Western traders would be an alternative.

Or yet another (and one they would really hate) - the Graylings and Parrises are the Deep South plantation owners after 1860.

https://twitter.com/ukip/status/832591341955739648

@SeanT I know you're in property already, but this is a debt based rather than equity investment.

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.

That was the most dreadful piece of bollocks you wrote this morning. Sorry. But as a professional writer, I just have to be honest. You can be witty and sharp, and you have a good memory for an apposite quote, but there's a reason you are a lawyer not a writer, and that shite this morning was a bilious piece of dreck.

So bad, you keep commenting on it; as did o-one else engages the readership like he does.

Nah, it was drivel.

But you read it. And you'll read the next one he writes; then comment on it. Many others will, too. Meeks, they'll call him as they say how wrong he is. Alastair has a following. The only contributor who does.

Actually no. This was the first one where I gave up. It was pitiful.

Meeks is a good amateur writer but Brexit is sending him bonkers. Cf that amazing A C Grayling rant in the New European. Borderline crazy. And, like Meeks, he's a clever man.

It's a definite phenomenonAs for Ian Dunt, his brain should be embalmed and sliced up and cross sections put in the Wellcome museum.

Its the mentality of French aristocrats in 1789.

The world was configured in a way agreeable to themselves and they thought it would be always such.

And then it was changed.

And even worse changed by people they despise.

Perhaps Chinese mandarins and intellectuals in the 19th century when they encountered aggressive Western traders would be an alternative.

Or yet another (and one they would really hate) - the Graylings and Parrises are the Deep South plantation owners after 1860.

The French aristocrats all got executed or fled. Wealthy Remainers will continue to lead gilded lives, as will wealthy Leavers. In fact, not much will change for anyone. If you are hoping for otherwise, you are going to be very disappointed.

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

"Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. "

Not yet, tick, tick, not yet, expected soon, tick.

Not bad so far, given that the forecast was explicitly over two years.

Do you want a bet that the UK economy will not be smaller on June 23 2018 than it was on June 23 2016? i.e. Two years after the vote?

No, because I don't think it will.

However, I do think that there is a substantial risk (I've put it at 10% to 20%) that the EU will be institutionally incapable of coming to a sensible deal with the UK, which would cause substantial damage in 2019. The damage would be as much to them as to us, but the decision-making process is so broken that we can't ignore that risk.

To answer your question about what to do with your well-earned loot, there are two parts to it. The first is wrappers - you say you've maxed out on ISAs (and VCTs?). Good, keep at it - ISAs really come into their own when you invest over 10 or 20 years, you can stash a serious amount of money out of reach of the taxman, under current legislation. I suspect that will change some time, but for now, it's a brilliant deal for the well-off.

Have you also maxed out on pension contributions? Those are also no-brainers if you've got spare cash. If you earn over £150K, you begin to lose the £40K annual allowance, but you might still be able to carry forward the allowance from previous years. If so, get on with it, because you can only carry forward for three years, so you might need to do it by the beginning of April.

All that is just wrappers. The question of where to invest within those wrappers is particularly difficult at the moment. US shares look to be in a bubble, which isn't to say they won't keep rising for a while at least, and the Trump political risk is a complete wild-card. The UK is at risk of Brexit troubles. The Eurozone is unfashionable, and might be worth a punt. Overall, though, I wouldn't go all-in on shares at the moment. If you do invest in shares, keep well-diversified geographically.

You can keep some in cash, for a while at least. That means you lose out because of inflation, but the loss is limited. There's no hurry to invest in troubled times.

Otherwise, property funds, infrastructure funds (eg John Laing Environmental Assets) might be worth a look.

Of course, I know nothing, this is not investment advice, do your own research, you might lose your shirt, etc etc.

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT

This was from a couple of days ago so may already have been posted but I thought some of these were inspired.

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/amazing-adventures-paul-nuttall-according-12611244

Thanks for sharing, what a hoot.


https://twitter.com/joshop68/status/831511725065269249/photo/1

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

But you read it. And you'll read the next one he writes; then comment on it. Many others will, too. Meeks, they'll call him as they say how wrong he is. Alastair has a following. The only contributor who does.

Actually no. This was the first one where I gave up. It was pitiful.

Meeks is a good aar symptoms. As for Ian Dunt, his brain should be embalmed and sliced up and cross sections put in the Wellcome museum.

Its the mentality of French aristocrats in 1789.

The world was configured in a way agreeable to themselves and they thought it would be always such.

And then it was changed.

And even worse changed by people they despise.

Perhaps Chinese mandarins and intellectuals in the 19th century when they encountered aggressive Western traders would be an alternative.

Or yet another (and one they would really hate) - the Graylings and Parrises are the Deep South plantation owners after 1860.

Very interesting. And yes, those are all good examples.

Essentially (as Parris himself sometimes admits in moments of self doubt - or clarity) the liberal western elite has been in control, and won every battle, since 1945. That's three or four generations of easy, assured success, reinforced by a sense of moral purpose. That engenders a vivid form of complacency, and entitlement, a sense that we MUST be right because WE ARE clearly successful, and therefore superior in all ways, not least our moral world-view.

So a huge reversal like Brexit is mind-bending, and utterly befuddling. Like the French aristos of 1789 contemplating their entire world in collapse, as you say. No doubt many went mad before the Terror even got going.

To an extent the French aristos and Chinese mandarins might have seen worrying signs ahead if they'd been open minded - the French often losing wars and increasing outside trade with China.

The idea of generations of success brought to a crashing halt by people they despised matches the Southern plantation holders more or a more worrying comparison might be with German industrialists / Prussian militarists in 1918.

SeanT said:

And California is almost immune to world catastrophe.

Earthquakes...

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

"Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. "

Not yet, tick, tick, not yet, expected soon, tick.

Not bad so far, given that the forecast was explicitly over two years.

Do you want a bet that the UK economy will not be smaller on June 23 2018 than it was on June 23 2016? i.e. Two years after the vote?

No, because I don't think it will.

k.

To answer your question about what to do with your well-earned loot, there are two parts to it. The first is wrappers - you say you've maxed out on ISAs (and VCTs?). Good, keep at it - ISAs really come into their own when you invest over 10 or 20 years, you can stash a serious amount of money out of reach of the taxman, under current legislation. I suspect that will change some time, but for now, it's a brilliant deal for the well-off.

Have you also maxed out on pension contributions? Those are also no-brainers if you've got spare cash. If you earn over £150K, you begin to lose the £40K annual allowance, but you might still be able to carry forward the allowance from previous years. If so, get on with it, because you can only carry forward for three years, so you might need to do it by the beginning of April.

All that is just wrappers. The question of where to invest within If you do invest in shares, keep well-diversified geographically.

You can keep some in cash, for a while at least. That means you lose out because of inflation, but the loss is limited. There's no hurry to invest in troubled times.

Otherwise, property funds, infrastructure funds (eg John Laing Environmental Assets) might be worth a look.

Of course, I know nothing, this is not investment advice, do your own research, you might lose your shirt, etc etc.

Thankyou for the advice. I knew you'd be good value.

I'm still tempted by LAND. My Chinese friend, a US citizen, is super sharp. She reckons we can get a decent plot in Napa for half a million. And California is almost immune to world catastrophe. Nothing but upside.

Hmm.

I have friends who own a small vineyard in Sonoma next door to Napa. The drought was killing them to the extent that if the rain had not come this year, they were going to be selling at a big loss and heading up to Oregon. But Jesus has the rain come. However, the eco-system there is in a fragile way. If you have the cash, San Francisco, San Jose, Palo Alto or Menlo Park may be a better option.

@ProfTomkins: Oh good. Nicola Sturgeon wasted £140,000 of public money pursuing her hopeless Article 50 case in the Supreme Ct. @HTScotPol has the story

@ProfTomkins: Remember: she lost 11-0. That's some return on £140k.

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

And California is almost immune to world catastrophe.

Earthquakes...

Droughts. The most recent one has been horrific.

Unfortunately it has ended - ruining many of the AGW theories. Now they have too much water and they forgot to repair the dams when the sun was shining.

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

I am giving more to charity. Rich liberal guilt beckons. It's probably inevitable.

What about a specific charitable project, to diversify your life as well as your assets? Something you know about - perhaps a Sean Thomas Writing Fellowship - you'd invite people to send you a sample chapter of a thriller, and give the best 10 10 hours each of advice. Or offer these people https://www.addictionhelper.com/rehab/charity-rehab/ a series of unpaid talks for recovering addicts on how to make it stick and what worked for you?

"Sean Thomas Center For Kids Who Can't Write Good Thrillers And Wanna Learn To Do Other Stuff Good Too"

tlg86 said:

MikeL said:

If Melenchon teamed up with Hamon they could knock out both Macron and Fillon.

And hand the Presidency to Le Pen.

Nah, Hamon would beat Le Pen, Melenchon probably too. But irritatingly they show no serious sign of thinking about it. It's like the Greens in Britain, still cheerfully splitting the left-wing vote (and even signing local pacts with the LibDems) even when most of their programme has been adopted by the Labour leadership.

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Yet Cameron and Osborne DIDN'T say 'over two years' did they.

Yes they did. I don't know why you keep posting this nonsense. I suggest you download and read the original Treasury document.

I suggest you read the actual Telegraph article that Cameron and Osborne wrote:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/

It says ' WEEKS AND MONTHS AFTER A VOTE TO LEAVE ON JUNE 23 '.

Please explain what timescale ' WEEKS AND MONTHS AFTER A VOTE TO LEAVE ON JUNE 23 ' is supposed to mean ?

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Yet Cameron and Osborne DIDN'T say 'over two years' did they.

Yes they did. I don't know why you keep posting this nonsense. I suggest you download and read the original Treasury document.

I suggest you read the actual Telegraph article that Cameron and Osborne wrote:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/

It says ' WEEKS AND MONTHS AFTER A VOTE TO LEAVE ON JUNE 23 '.

Please explain what timescale ' WEEKS AND MONTHS AFTER A VOTE TO LEAVE ON JUNE 23 ' is supposed to mean ?

I'm glad you acknowledge that what Cameron and Osborne wrote was 'nonsense'.

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

But you read it. And you'll read the next one he writes; then comment on it. Many others will, too. Meeks, they'll call him as they say how wrong he is. Alastair has a following. The only contributor who does.

Actually no. This was the first one where I gave up. It was pitiful.

Meeks is a good amateur writer but Brexit is sending him bonkers. Cf that amazing A C Grayling rant in the New European. Borderline crazy. And, like Meeks, he's a clever man.

It's a definite phenomenonAs for Ian Dunt, his brain should be embalmed and sliced up and cross sections put in the Wellcome museum.

Its the mentality of French aristocrats in 1789.

The world was configured in a way agreeable to themselves and they thought it would be always such.

And then it was changed.

And even worse changed by people they despise.

Perhaps Chinese mandarins and intellectuals in the 19th century when they encountered aggressive Western traders would be an alternative.

Or yet another (and one they would really hate) - the Graylings and Parrises are the Deep South plantation owners after 1860.

The French aristocrats all got executed or fled. Wealthy Remainers will continue to lead gilded lives, as will wealthy Leavers. In fact, not much will change for anyone. If you are hoping for otherwise, you are going to be very disappointed.

If it hadn't caused change there wouldn't be so much anger from some Remainers.

Now that change might be moral or intellectual or psychological rather than material but its still change to those affected by it.

Of course. Some people lost when they usually win. They'll get used to it. But their privilege gives them the opportunity and time to rail against the result. I see no evidence that anything much will change for the vast majority who live further down the wealth scale.

NickPalmer said:

tlg86 said:

MikeL said:

If Melenchon teamed up with Hamon they could knock out both Macron and Fillon.

And hand the Presidency to Le Pen.

Nah, Hamon would beat Le Pen, Melenchon probably too. But irritatingly they show no serious sign of thinking about it. It's like the Greens in Britain, still cheerfully splitting the left-wing vote (and even signing local pacts with the LibDems) even when most of their programme has been adopted by the Labour leadership.

Do I take it you don't like Greens ?

Now in Broxtowe Labour and the LibDems have often got along very well.

And then there are some LibDems, OGH for example, who have really negative views about Greens.

MarkSenior said:

Lib Dems gain Wokingham Emmbrook from Conservatives on a very big swing

Lib Dem 1575
Con 879
UKIP 104
Lab 79

"Go back to your parish councils and prepare for refuse collection!"

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Yet Cameron and Osborne DIDN'T say 'over two years' did they.

Yes they did. I don't know why you keep posting this nonsense. I suggest you download and read the original Treasury document.

I suggest you read the actual Telegraph article that Cameron and Osborne wrote:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/

It says ' WEEKS AND MONTHS AFTER A VOTE TO LEAVE ON JUNE 23 '.

Please explain what timescale ' WEEKS AND MONTHS AFTER A VOTE TO LEAVE ON JUNE 23 ' is supposed to mean ?

It means, as the article makes clear, an immediate shock (tick, just look at sterling, which fell exactly as predicted), and the period thereafter, which as the article makes clear is initially two years, but some of it is up to 2030.

Of course, at the time no-one expected the delay to invoking Article 50 to be as long as it has been, so the timescales are extended; after all, we haven't even started the process yet. It's also true that most economists and other observers (including me) expected the mere fact of the uncertainty produced by the referendum result to have a bigger effect than it did. The reasons for that are twofold, and quite interesting. The first reason is that, contrary to expectations, consumers kept on spending, rather than drawing in their horns straight away. That's a bit of a surprise, but not a big deal really; consumer spending is very fickle, and the signs are that the expected slowdown is now beginning. The second reason is that business investment didn't slow down as much as expected. But that's now happening.

Overall, the effect is slower than expected. But we're very, very far from being able to say the forecasts were wrong overall. You need to wait until the end of 2019 to get the first preliminary data on that.

If you tell me what the deal with our EU friends is going to be, I could make an updated stab at guessing how the economy will react. But you can't, for the very good reason that our EU friends haven't got a clue themselves.

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

The whinginosters.

That ws a bilious piece of dreck.

So bad, y

Nah, it was drivel.

But you rntributor who does.

Its the mentality of Fin 1789.

The worldand they thought it would be always such.

And tchanged.

And theytraders would be an alternative.

Or yet another (and one they would really hate) - the Graylings and Parrises are the Deep South plantation owners after 1860.

Very integot going.

As a symbolic act of rebellion the Brexit vote was quite something. As a game-changing event for the structure of society, a la French revolution, we'll have to see about that. The elites are all still in place and going nowhere; it remains an open question what if anything Brexit delivers in improving the lives of ordinary people. The chances are things will carry on pretty much as they are, which means for most people life will not be a bed of roses.

But, the French Revolution did not change or transform French society in a trice. Largely, the rich remained rich, the poor remained poor. Society became more meritocratic over time, but it took decades (and Napoleon) and France is still highly stratified by class in ways we don't always appreciate

However the French Revolution changed the prism through which the French looked at themselves, in a good way. It also led to a national revival which saw them conquer most of Europe. Indeed if it weren't for plucky Britain - and Prussia, and Russia - the world would now be speaking French, not English.

Brexit, I hope, will unleash and revive the animal, Napoleonic spirits of the British. The old order is overturned. The lazy and the smug elite, however bright, have been brutally defeated, and their world view upturned.

This is good. Let Brexit unfurl.

Goodnight.

What a load of old crap.

How does it feel to have a crazed war criminal, I mean, Tony Blair on your side?