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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Johnson wasn't an enthusiastic supporter of Blair's Iraq War. Fake news is contaminating even upper journalism.

    Boris Johnson consistently voted for the Iraq war

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10999/boris_johnson/uxbridge_and_south_ruislip/divisions?policy=1049
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    chestnut said:

    More people voted for Cameron in 2010 than Blair in 2001 and 2005.

    If Cameron, who remained reasonably credible and popular, could not persuade the UK public last June, then it's hard to imagine that Blair would do better.

    I think Blair would have got a more persuasive new deal offer out of the EU than Cameron did.
    Like the CAP reform he got in return for a chunk of our rebate?
    No, because I would expect him to realise the magnitude of the problem and raise his game accordingly, as Cameron didn't, because I think Blair believed in the EU and Cameron didn't believe in anything much.
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    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Blair is 7 years younger than the US President. Plenty of time left for a second act. :)

    We do not want any more illegal wars thank you
    Who are you using to say it was illegal ? Our sovereign parliament voted for military action.
    On a lie
    What lie ? Many intelligence agencies believed Sadam had WMd he had already gassed his own people.
    Blair stated on numerous occasions before the HoC that Saddam had WMDs. It's one of the most infamous and lethal lies in history.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    @glenoglaza1: Interesting that Johnson, Farage, even Caroline Lucas are attacking Blair the man as they have no coherent reply to his argument #Brexit

    Shades of Nick Griffin being ignored on the Rotherham rapists.

    Still, never mind eh?
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,338
    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,016
    chestnut said:

    PB Remainers? The Desperadoes seems more apt.

    Blair and Sturgeon lighting their fires. :smiley:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    chestnut said:

    More people voted for Cameron in 2010 than Blair in 2001 and 2005.

    If Cameron, who remained reasonably credible and popular, could not persuade the UK public last June, then it's hard to imagine that Blair would do better.

    I think Blair would have got a more persuasive new deal offer out of the EU than Cameron did.
    Like the CAP reform he got in return for a chunk of our rebate?
    No, because I would expect him to realise the magnitude of the problem and raise his game accordingly, as Cameron didn't, because I think Blair believed in the EU and Cameron didn't believe in anything much.
    I doubt that Blair would have got much simply because the issue wasn't the failure to negotiate properly but that what - by then - Britain wanted and what the EU wanted were so far apart. Indeed, it's not clear that Cameron had any idea what he wanted other than something to sell to get him past and winning the referendum. And if Blair had offered a referendum I expect that he too would have gone for something he could sell.

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    ....... "tumbleweed....."..........
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    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    I don't think Blair's past matters at the moment. We are surrounded by conmen liars and chancers to a level politics has never seen before. Certainly not in my lifetime. Trump Johnson Farage Nuttall Gove IDS etc. Anyone who saw the two mating slugs Netanyahu and Trump will know where we're heading.

    Blair certainly isn't short of skeletons but for those of us who care about the way things are going any lifeline will do.

    The people you mention may not be great, to put it mildly.

    But I think that Blair did great damage to our system of government and to our trust in politicians. Pretty much everything he touched turned, in the end, to ashes. His failure to understand what the EU was about and his failure to carve out a sensible immigration policy ultimately led to Brexit.

    People might well have been far more relaxed about FoM from the EU had it not come on top of a pretty much open borders policy to the rest of the world with a lamentable failure on the part of Blair to control it or to deal effectively with asylum claims, whether bogus or not, or to deport those with no right to be here.

    And Blair - like many another pro-EU politician before him - never made the case for the EU. He assumed that it was a good and assumed that everyone else would agree with him. If you think something is worthwhile then you need to make the case for it continually not simply assume it.

    What was the saying in The Leopard? "Everything must change so that nothing changes."

    The pro-EU side have been complacent for years. In the end their complacency cost them.

    Incidentally, if the people do change their mind about Brexit and a different decision is taken, fine. And it's also fine for politicians to respond to such a change and even to campaign for it. But what they can't really do is say that they should ignore a decision when there is no evidence of just such a change of mind just because they don't like it. They need to answer the question: "Why are you proposing to do this?" The answer: "I disagree with the answer given" is not, I think, good enough.
    Agree with all of that Ms Cyclefree. – The final nail in Blair’s coffin regarding the EU imo, was his manifesto promise for a referendum on constitutional reform (Lisbon) He won an election, then did nothing for two years up until Brown’s ultimate betrayal. Shysters the lot of em.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958
    Scott_P said:

    @glenoglaza1: Interesting that Johnson, Farage, even Caroline Lucas are attacking Blair the man as they have no coherent reply to his argument #Brexit

    Is Glen O' Glaza Tony Blair's spokesman?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,338
    edited February 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    Moral responsibility is mainly about who actually did what, not about counterfactuals.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,031

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    I don't think there has ever been a poll in favour of joining the Euro.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Whatever else he is Blair has always been a fighter. And he's having a go. I agree with him but good luck with that one.

    http://tinyurl.com/zvyat7n
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
    We could perfectly well have stood with the Americans without necessarily going to war. Support and friendship does not mean you have to do exactly the same thing as your friend. And Bush offered Blair an out before the war.

    Plus being a friend sometimes involves saying some hard truths, such as "what's your plan for after?".



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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited February 2017
    Back in London for the weekend. Spotify put the Jupiter suite by Holst on just now. It makes any ordinary moment (even sitting on a train whilst having had a lot of booze on a flight) a lot more patriotic than one would normally expect.

    Edit: also very happy with Vodafone. I did my contract just before I left for good and it came with 4GB of roaming data which I can use in Switzerland plus 20GB of data for the UK. No need to take out a personal contract in Switzerland now I think.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    Joke of the year.
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    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    I don’t think even Tony Blair at his height, could have persuaded the UK to ditch the pound.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    What the referendum has revealed is that certain people were right all along; There really was nothing between the three major parties 2010-2015.

    The country may be divided now, but it always was... the phoney war between Orange bookers, Blairites and Cameroons provided a smokescreen that let them stay in power as long as they acted out their roles without the public noticing
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Cyclefree said:



    Incidentally, if the people do change their mind about Brexit and a different decision is taken, fine. And it's also fine for politicians to respond to such a change and even to campaign for it. But what they can't really do is say that they should ignore a decision when there is no evidence of just such a change of mind just because they don't like it.

    That seems fair and reasonable.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    oh dear

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,338

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    I don’t think even Tony Blair at his height, could have persuaded the UK to ditch the pound.
    Even Dominic Cummings thought the sceptics would have lost if the decision were framed by Blair as being a proxy for in or out of the EU.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318

    Yorkcity said:

    AndyJS said:

    Blair is such an impressive speaker. He'd probably still be PM if he hadn't stood down in 2007.

    Agreed . I still think he would have beat Cameron in 2020.,,After 9 ,11 I think he felt that as a Labour PM he had to stand with the USA .
    Should have listened to his Uncle Harold!
    Even most Labour PMs side with US Presidents, Attlee and Truman, Callaghan and Carter, Blair and Clinton and Bush, Brown and Obama. Wilson was an exception in failing to side with LBJ over Vietnam in the mid sixties but then so was Heath in not really being close to Nixon in the early seventies which was coincidentally the time leading up to which we were finally accepted in the EEC
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    Like Vietnam then..........
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    chestnut said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
    I don't think Britain is flaky. It simply is not and never really has been committed to the full EU projet. And the EU has never really been willing to accommodate Britain's concerns.

    With hindsight perhaps an associate membership might have been the answer. Ah well, too late now.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited February 2017

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    :D:D:D:D:D
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Scott_P said:

    @glenoglaza1: Interesting that Johnson, Farage, even Caroline Lucas are attacking Blair the man as they have no coherent reply to his argument #Brexit

    LOL

    Just for you Scott

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/17/68-want-government-get-brexit/

    68% of voters want the government to “get on with implementing the result of the referendum”, compared to just 15% who disagree
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    I don’t think even Tony Blair at his height, could have persuaded the UK to ditch the pound.
    Even Dominic Cummings thought the sceptics would have lost if the decision were framed by Blair as being a proxy for in or out of the EU.
    And smart guys like Cummings would have reframed it as "In the EU, still in control". Or something along those lines.
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    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    I don’t think even Tony Blair at his height, could have persuaded the UK to ditch the pound.
    Even Dominic Cummings thought the sceptics would have lost if the decision were framed by Blair as being a proxy for in or out of the EU.
    You're obviously a foreigner. English speaker of Scotch/ Argentine descent in French Canada ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Floater said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    Like Vietnam then..........
    Australia also went in with the US in Vietnam just as they joined them in Iraq, it is really Australia that is the closest ally to the US, not the UK
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
    Not totally other countries such as Spain decided to agree with Bush the EU did not speak with one voice.Many countries were involved suppprting the Usa
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
    Not totally other countries such as Spain decided to agree with Bush the EU did not speak with one voice.Many countries were involved suppprting the Usa
    I expect that New Zealand and Australia might still have a folk memory of Japan's expansion in WWII ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,338

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    I don’t think even Tony Blair at his height, could have persuaded the UK to ditch the pound.
    Even Dominic Cummings thought the sceptics would have lost if the decision were framed by Blair as being a proxy for in or out of the EU.
    You're obviously a foreigner. English speaker of Scotch/ Argentine descent in French Canada ?
    Worse. A Cantabrigian.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Toms said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
    Not totally other countries such as Spain decided to agree with Bush the EU did not speak with one voice.Many countries were involved suppprting the Usa
    I expect that New Zealand and Australia might still have a folk memory of Japan's expansion in WWII ?
    New Zealand kept out of Iraq unlike Australia
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    chestnut said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
    I don't think Britain is flaky. It simply is not and never really has been committed to the full EU projet. And the EU has never really been willing to accommodate Britain's concerns.

    With hindsight perhaps an associate membership might have been the answer. Ah well, too late now.
    I think the flakiness would come from us changing our minds having already voted to Leave.

    Who's then to say, to paraphrase Blair, that Remaining would be inevitable after we changed our mind? Why couldn't we change our minds again? A daft situation, but perfectly reasonable using his logic.

    My instinct is that the vast majority of voters on both sides knew they were making a long term and far reaching decision, not one that would have a lifespan of a year or two, and many were thinking about five, ten, fifteen, twenty years ahead.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/11/tony-blair-admits-he-may-damage-the-pro-eu-referendum-campaign_n_9435902.html

    As per link text. I don't know what he thinks has changed; and for all the complaints that people are talking about him because they can't successfully attack his argument, I cannot for the life of me see what argument he has advanced today.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    chestnut said:

    Cyclefree said:

    chestnut said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
    I don't think Britain is flaky. It simply is not and never really has been committed to the full EU projet. And the EU has never really been willing to accommodate Britain's concerns.

    With hindsight perhaps an associate membership might have been the answer. Ah well, too late now.
    I think the flakiness would come from us changing our minds having already voted to Leave.

    Who's then to say, to paraphrase Blair, that Remaining would be inevitable after we changed our mind? Why couldn't we change our minds again? A daft situation, but perfectly reasonable using his logic.

    My instinct is that the vast majority of voters on both sides knew they were making a long term and far reaching decision, not one that would have a lifetime of a year or two, and many were thinking about five, ten, fifteen, twenty years ahead.
    Probably because the man who called it said this

    "I am absolutely clear a referendum is a referendum, it's a once in a generation, once in a lifetime opportunity and the result determines the outcome ... You can't have neverendums, you have referendums."

    Mind you, that's when he thought he was winning
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Toms said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
    Not totally other countries such as Spain decided to agree with Bush the EU did not speak with one voice.Many countries were involved suppprting the Usa
    I expect that New Zealand and Australia might still have a folk memory of Japan's expansion in WWII ?
    New Zealand kept out of Iraq unlike Australia
    I suppose, to oversimplify, the middle east troubles centre around oil.
    There's lots of that elsewhere these days.
    I wonder what does NZ does for energy.
    Time to go off & do a little research.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    oh dear

    Indeed. I officially declare that statement to be Peak Remainer.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Cyclefree said:

    That is absolutely not the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain within the EU. Nor is it the way to get a lasting settlement for Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. This is all tactics. A strategy is needed.

    If Blair had held a referendum it would have been on joining the Euro. He would have won and it would have provided a lasting settlement.
    If that's correct, then we dodged a wide bullet.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,809
    You know those 3 - across seats on commuter trains, where if you end up in the middle seat it makes for an uncomfortable journey?

    Well that's where I am, with Blair on one side and Corbyn on the other.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,564
    On topic, am I missing something with the first result in Bollington? Presumably the Bollington First party last time was on 37% and the Conservatives were on 31% to judge from the published swings. How, then, was it a Conservative seat?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,031
    Fishing said:

    On topic, am I missing something with the first result in Bollington? Presumably the Bollington First party last time was on 37% and the Conservatives were on 31% to judge from the published swings. How, then, was it a Conservative seat?

    Tory votes count more, obviously :smiley:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    edited February 2017
    Toms said:

    HYUFD said:

    Toms said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with the Iraq war was not whether it was legal or not. But whether it was wise.

    It was not a wise thing to do.

    Agreed but it would have happened without Blair .Bush was going in. The decision was wether we stood with them or not.
    At least we thought that was the decision. With hindsight, perhaps the real decision was whether we stood with Europe or not.
    Not totally other countries such as Spain decided to agree with Bush the EU did not speak with one voice.Many countries were involved suppprting the Usa
    I expect that New Zealand and Australia might still have a folk memory of Japan's expansion in WWII ?
    New Zealand kept out of Iraq unlike Australia
    I suppose, to oversimplify, the middle east troubles centre around oil.
    There's lots of that elsewhere these days.
    I wonder what does NZ does for energy.
    Time to go off & do a little research.
    There is some oil in NZ in the Taranaki basin, coal in Southland, as well as hydropower and geothermal power
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_New_Zealand
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Fishing said:

    On topic, am I missing something with the first result in Bollington? Presumably the Bollington First party last time was on 37% and the Conservatives were on 31% to judge from the published swings. How, then, was it a Conservative seat?

    1 Conservative, 1 Bollington First, were elected.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    Cyclefree said:

    chestnut said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
    I don't think Britain is flaky. It simply is not and never really has been committed to the full EU projet. And the EU has never really been willing to accommodate Britain's concerns.

    With hindsight perhaps an associate membership might have been the answer. Ah well, too late now.
    I think the flakiness would come from us changing our minds having already voted to Leave.

    Who's then to say, to paraphrase Blair, that Remaining would be inevitable after we changed our mind? Why couldn't we change our minds again? A daft situation, but perfectly reasonable using his logic.

    My instinct is that the vast majority of voters on both sides knew they were making a long term and far reaching decision, not one that would have a lifetime of a year or two, and many were thinking about five, ten, fifteen, twenty years ahead.
    Probably because the man who called it said this

    "I am absolutely clear a referendum is a referendum, it's a once in a generation, once in a lifetime opportunity and the result determines the outcome ... You can't have neverendums, you have referendums."

    Mind you, that's when he thought he was winning
    I think he was right on that.

    Perhaps there is an argument for a Fixed Term Referendum Act? One that gives the decisions a fixed lifespan. Twenty five years maybe?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,611
    LibDem gain, nailed on.
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    Cyclefree said:

    chestnut said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
    I don't think Britain is flaky. It simply is not and never really has been committed to the full EU projet. And the EU has never really been willing to accommodate Britain's concerns.

    With hindsight perhaps an associate membership might have been the answer. Ah well, too late now.
    I think the flakiness would come from us changing our minds having already voted to Leave.

    Who's then to say, to paraphrase Blair, that Remaining would be inevitable after we changed our mind? Why couldn't we change our minds again? A daft situation, but perfectly reasonable using his logic.

    My instinct is that the vast majority of voters on both sides knew they were making a long term and far reaching decision, not one that would have a lifetime of a year or two, and many were thinking about five, ten, fifteen, twenty years ahead.
    Probably because the man who called it said this

    "I am absolutely clear a referendum is a referendum, it's a once in a generation, once in a lifetime opportunity and the result determines the outcome ... You can't have neverendums, you have referendums."

    Mind you, that's when he thought he was winning
    I think he was right on that.

    Perhaps there is an argument for a Fixed Term Referendum Act? One that gives the decisions a fixed lifespan. Twenty five years maybe?
    Like
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904


    The dark is people are rising.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,302
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    Cyclefree said:

    chestnut said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think of us as STAYERS and QUITTERS. I'm not a querulous quitter. I'm a steady stayer.

    You're obviously not alone, Barnesian.

    I find myself wondering what the point of any union or political marriage is where there is one pretty flaky partner who clearly isn't committed.

    We've made it abundantly obvious to the EU that we aren't committed. If I were them, I would want an amicable divorce. I'd probably want to clear out anyone else harbouring the same reservations as well.

    I wonder how many of them actually dread the thought of us wanting to change our minds?
    I don't think Britain is flaky. It simply is not and never really has been committed to the full EU projet. And the EU has never really been willing to accommodate Britain's concerns.

    With hindsight perhaps an associate membership might have been the answer. Ah well, too late now.
    I think the flakiness would come from us changing our minds having already voted to Leave.

    Who's then to say, to paraphrase Blair, that Remaining would be inevitable after we changed our mind? Why couldn't we change our minds again? A daft situation, but perfectly reasonable using his logic.

    My instinct is that the vast majority of voters on both sides knew they were making a long term and far reaching decision, not one that would have a lifetime of a year or two, and many were thinking about five, ten, fifteen, twenty years ahead.
    Probably because the man who called it said this

    "I am absolutely clear a referendum is a referendum, it's a once in a generation, once in a lifetime opportunity and the result determines the outcome ... You can't have neverendums, you have referendums."

    Mind you, that's when he thought he was winning
    I think he was right on that.

    Perhaps there is an argument for a Fixed Term Referendum Act? One that gives the decisions a fixed lifespan. Twenty five years maybe?
    But surely a simple majority in parliament could repeal it?

    Let us imagine that the Scots - for whatever reason - were suddenly 99.9% in favour of independence, and the SNP was often winning 100% of the votes in elections in Scotland. Are you seriously saying that, because five years ago a referendum was lost, that the people of Scotland could be denied a vote?

    If a clear majority of people NOW want something, as expressed through how they elect their representatives, then they should not and cannot be bound by how a different bunch of people voted a decade ago.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,302
    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

    There was an IFOP poll out today with Fillon and Macron also tied for second.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904


    The dark is people are rising.
    It is certainly getting interesting
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    isam said:

    What the referendum has revealed is that certain people were right all along; There really was nothing between the three major parties 2010-2015.

    The country may be divided now, but it always was... the phoney war between Orange bookers, Blairites and Cameroons provided a smokescreen that let them stay in power as long as they acted out their roles without the public noticing

    An exceptionally clever post...I don't agree with it, but I get your insight.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

    There was an IFOP poll out today with Fillon and Macron also tied for second.
    It looks to be very close as to which of them makes the runoff
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,297
    edited February 2017
    With an unstable egomaniac of questionable sanity in the White House, I'm not sure this is a sensible stance on the part of our European allies...
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/17/european-leaders-resist-trumps-ultimatum-increase-defence-spending/
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

    There was an IFOP poll out today with Fillon and Macron also tied for second.
    It looks to be very close as to which of them makes the runoff
    Do you trust polls anymore?

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

    Since when did questioning the government become inappropriate? At what point, and by whom, was it decreed that dissent is unconscionable? Brexit means Brexit, so pipe down at the back there. Don’t you realise you lost? So shut-up, you, you, you Remoaner you.

    When Blair observes that ‘the ideologues are the ones driving this bus’ he is, again, correct.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/tony-blair-right-brexit/
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.

    What arguments? These ones? Blair:-

    1. The people were asked a question.
    2. Both sides had a crack at explaining their position.
    3. Leave won.
    4. It's not fair.
    5. You bad people need to Stop Being Stupid and change your minds.

  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

    Since when did questioning the government become inappropriate? At what point, and by whom, was it decreed that dissent is unconscionable? Brexit means Brexit, so pipe down at the back there. Don’t you realise you lost? So shut-up, you, you, you Remoaner you.

    When Blair observes that ‘the ideologues are the ones driving this bus’ he is, again, correct.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/tony-blair-right-brexit/

    What do you mean "again"? When was the 1st time?

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    2. Both sides had a crack at explaining their position.
    3. Leave won.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

    Since when did questioning the government become inappropriate? At what point, and by whom, was it decreed that dissent is unconscionable? Brexit means Brexit, so pipe down at the back there. Don’t you realise you lost? So shut-up, you, you, you Remoaner you.

    When Blair observes that ‘the ideologues are the ones driving this bus’ he is, again, correct.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/tony-blair-right-brexit/

    What do you mean "again"? When was the 1st time?

    Wasn't it Obama who said "We won, you lost: get over it"?
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    OMG The last throw of the dice for the remainers is the Lords next week. If democracy holds and there's no amendments then article 50 gets triggered. End of!
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    Alistair...I don't know why you even bother getting into a dialogue with the likes of the very clearly inadequate seant. You wrote a very good article this morning, all he can write is shit, crass, inane or stupid shit.

    In the long run we will win...it might take some time...but bigotry, small mindedness, blind ideology and nastiness just aren't compatible with human evolution...
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    2. Both sides had a crack at explaining their position.
    3. Leave won.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/
    ' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.

    It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.

    The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.

    In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.

    Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. '

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
  • Options
    weejonnie said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

    Since when did questioning the government become inappropriate? At what point, and by whom, was it decreed that dissent is unconscionable? Brexit means Brexit, so pipe down at the back there. Don’t you realise you lost? So shut-up, you, you, you Remoaner you.

    When Blair observes that ‘the ideologues are the ones driving this bus’ he is, again, correct.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/tony-blair-right-brexit/

    What do you mean "again"? When was the 1st time?

    Wasn't it Obama who said "We won, you lost: get over it"?
    Barack Obama in 2010 to the Republican congressional leadership -specifically Eric Cantor the House Republican Whip over enacting Obamacare AKA the Affordable Care Act.

    Obama: - "elections have consequences" and "I won."
  • Options
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    Alistair...I don't know why you even bother getting into a dialogue with the likes of the very clearly inadequate seant. You wrote a very good article this morning, all he can write is shit, crass, inane or stupid shit.

    In the long run we will win...it might take some time...but bigotry, small mindedness, blind ideology and nastiness just aren't compatible with human evolution...
    Tyson you have already lost. You are just too dumb to realise it.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    2. Both sides had a crack at explaining their position.
    3. Leave won.

    twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/

    Remain:

    Back of the Queue
    Punishment Budget
    World War 3

    (etc)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Blue_rog said:

    OMG The last throw of the dice for the remainers is the Lords next week. If democracy holds and there's no amendments then article 50 gets triggered. End of!

    @iainmartin1: Tony Blair warns article 50 could be launched within 45 minutes. (thank you for that various people on twitter)

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    edited February 2017
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

    There was an IFOP poll out today with Fillon and Macron also tied for second.
    It looks to be very close as to which of them makes the runoff
    Do you trust polls anymore?

    Certainly not entirely in terms of populist anti immigration campaigns, if so and Le Pen really does take a 7% lead into round 2 a Le Pen presidency is by no means impossible even if still unlikely
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    "bedwetting" seems a bit below your normal high standards.

    What argument has Blair advanced today?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,031

    Scott_P said:

    2. Both sides had a crack at explaining their position.
    3. Leave won.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/
    ' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.

    It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.

    The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.

    In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.

    Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up. '

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
    Don't worry, I've been assured that the immediate and profound shock will occur the moment May triggers Article 50.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    SeanT said:

    Here's a thing re Blair and Brexit. He might be right in one way.

    I've been watching interviews with Macron and Merkel and Schulz etc, and a lot of them are still saying IF Brexit happens. Not "when". They still say IF.

    Much of this is just European incredulity that we would do anything so drastic (or stupid, as they see it).

    But I also wonder if in say, early 2019, as Real Hard Brexit looms, along with the loss of the UK and its contributions, financial and otherwise, the EU might come up with a deal to make us rethink a the last moment. That's certainly the impression I get from someone like Macron.

    It would have to be quite a striking offer. A temporary end to Free Movement plus something else.

    But for the first time today I saw a way Brexit might still be thwarted. The EU does fudgy deals, after all. It's one of the few things it is good at.

    Hmm.

    The most the EU would grant is a temporary brake on free movement, they would not end it
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    Alistair...I don't know why you even bother getting into a dialogue with the likes of the very clearly inadequate seant. You wrote a very good article this morning, all he can write is shit, crass, inane or stupid shit.

    In the long run we will win...it might take some time...but bigotry, small mindedness, blind ideology and nastiness just aren't compatible with human evolution...
    Gosh 'you'll win in the end'. And how do you define that? As soon as article 50 is triggered 'winning' means reapplying for membership with Schengen, free movement, and the Euro
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.

    Since when did questioning the government become inappropriate? At what point, and by whom, was it decreed that dissent is unconscionable? Brexit means Brexit, so pipe down at the back there. Don’t you realise you lost? So shut-up, you, you, you Remoaner you.

    When Blair observes that ‘the ideologues are the ones driving this bus’ he is, again, correct.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/tony-blair-right-brexit/

    What do you mean "again"? When was the 1st time?

    Both Massie and Blair share a trait - they have never knowingly been right about anything.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    bigotry, small mindedness, blind ideology and nastiness just aren't compatible with human evolution...
    Where do you get such an idea from?
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    Would you like to put some names to the description 'more feeble minded and incontinent posters' ?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    When we vote for the Commons, we know that it's for five years and we have to live with it.

    Why not do something similar with referendums? It's the same basic principle as the FTPA.

    The subjects have longer term consequences so we accept that we live with it for a longer period. It should transcend party politics.

    We have now had three referendums in the last five years. On each occasion the voters have been told it's a generational vote. Then, lo and behold, the losing side spends it's time saying it isn't. That's destabilising and disruptive.

    The reality of Scotland, rather than your scenario, is perpetual calls for another referendum with little real sign that there is any great zest for it.

    We have a situation now where some want referendums banned because they don't like the outcomes and then a situation where people want them constantly re-run, usually because they lost.

    The answer has to be somewhere in the middle with due consideration given to the significance of the topic.

    People must be allowed a say, but it's hugely disruptive to go back to the same subjects too frequently, especially where the subject is a very deep one like membership of the UK or the EU.

    It's just a thought.

    I don't see any great feeling within the UK or Scotland for quick re-runs of referendums.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Here's a thing re Blair and Brexit. He might be right in one way.

    I've been watching interviews with Macron and Merkel and Schulz etc, and a lot of them are still saying IF Brexit happens. Not "when". They still say IF.

    Much of this is just European incredulity that we would do anything so drastic (or stupid, as they see it).

    But I also wonder if in say, early 2019, as Real Hard Brexit looms, along with the loss of the UK and its contributions, financial and otherwise, the EU might come up with a deal to make us rethink a the last moment. That's certainly the impression I get from someone like Macron.

    It would have to be quite a striking offer. A temporary end to Free Movement plus something else.

    But for the first time today I saw a way Brexit might still be thwarted. The EU does fudgy deals, after all. It's one of the few things it is good at.

    Hmm.

    Its a possibility but the longer the wait the more the EU would have to give.

    I wonder if the EU had believed the line Cameron and Osborne had spouted about the UK immediately falling apart upon a Leave vote and that they would then have been able to negotiate from a stronger position.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    chestnut said:


    When we vote for the Commons, we know that it's for five years and we have to live with it.

    Except that's not true.

    Were it not for the terminally incompetent Corbyn, there would be every chance of an election in the next 2 years
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

    There was an IFOP poll out today with Fillon and Macron also tied for second.
    Macron is now going backwards and the Fillon support he has left is holding firm. Fillon said this morning that he was reneging on a promise to quit if he was indicted and will stay in the race no matter what, so looks like he is going to stay the course.

    Expect Fillon to play the victim card from now on. Really can't see why Macron is such a hot favourite still, with his support evaporating despite Fillon's problems. Also less than 50% of those polled who say they will vote for Macron say they might change their mind.

    I would have Macron, Fillon and Le Pen all priced around the same.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:


    When we vote for the Commons, we know that it's for five years and we have to live with it.

    Except that's not true.

    Were it not for the terminally incompetent Corbyn, there would be every chance of an election in the next 2 years
    There is no chance of May calling an election until the end of 2019 once May invokes Article 50 next month, the negotiations will be too time consuming
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,031
    Scott_P said:

    chestnut said:


    When we vote for the Commons, we know that it's for five years and we have to live with it.

    Except that's not true.

    Were it not for the terminally incompetent Corbyn, there would be every chance of an election in the next 2 years
    Surely without Corbyn there is even less of a chance?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    There is no chance of May calling an election until the end of 2019 once May invokes Article 50 next month, the negotiations will be too time consuming

    That's why I said Corbyn.

    if we had a functional opposition, there would be more chance of an election
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    Except that's not true.

    Were it not for the terminally incompetent Corbyn, there would be every chance of an election in the next 2 years

    All through the last parliament we were told that the coalition would never last the five years.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I (in)frequent these parts mainly to make up for a protected and focussed childhood & to learn about the real world.
    I find articles by Mr.Meeks and others help do the trick.
    Keep 'em coming please.
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    Interesting that George Osborne is now on the Black Rock payroll.

    This is what Black Rock predicted about the UK economy on 14th July:

    ' Britain will be plunged into a recession this year and be plagued with lower economic growth for another five years because of the shock decision for the UK to leave the EU, BlackRock analysts have said.

    BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world with $4.6 trillion under management as of 2015. Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist, has said that firm's "base case" is recession, meaning at a minimum, it expects the UK GDP to fall for two successive quarters in a row. '

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-will-plunge-the-uk-into-a-recession-in-the-next-year-blackrock-says-a7134616.html
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    edited February 2017
    Blue_rog said:

    OMG The last throw of the dice for the remainers is the Lords next week. If democracy holds and there's no amendments then article 50 gets triggered. End of!

    Not next week.

    Next week is 2nd reading - no amendments possible - just two days of debate.

    Committee stage is 27 Feb and 1 March - that's when amendments get debated.

    But often amendments just get debated and withdrawn at Committee - the real event will be Report Stage on 7 March - that's when amendments will get voted on for sure. If any pass it's then back to the Commons.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,031
    MikeL said:

    Blue_rog said:

    OMG The last throw of the dice for the remainers is the Lords next week. If democracy holds and there's no amendments then article 50 gets triggered. End of!

    Not next week.

    Next week is 2nd reading - no amendments possible - just two days of debate.

    Committee stage is 27 Feb and 1 March - that's when amendments get debated.

    But often amendnents just get debated and withdrawn at Committee - the real event will be Report Stage on 7 March - that's when amendments will get voted on for sure. If any pass it's then back to the Commons.
    HM anxiously waiting to give her assent.
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    BudG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen takes a 7% lead and Macron and Fillon tied to face her in the runoff in new Ifop poll
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/832693801869307904

    There was an IFOP poll out today with Fillon and Macron also tied for second.
    Macron is now going backwards and the Fillon support he has left is holding firm. Fillon said this morning that he was reneging on a promise to quit if he was indicted and will stay in the race no matter what, so looks like he is going to stay the course.

    Expect Fillon to play the victim card from now on. Really can't see why Macron is such a hot favourite still, with his support evaporating despite Fillon's problems. Also less than 50% of those polled who say they will vote for Macron say they might change their mind.

    I would have Macron, Fillon and Le Pen all priced around the same.
    Macron seems to be following the Cleggmania pattern.

    A pretty boy who attracts support on the basis of who he isn't.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    Would you like to put some names to the description 'more feeble minded and incontinent posters' ?
    And another thing: no one is "complaining that a former Prime Minister has views" - everyone, except poss the Queen and the PoW, has the right to hold views and express them; it is just that the views of this particular XPM prove him to be a swivel-eyed wazzock.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    If Melenchon teamed up with Hamon they could knock out both Macron and Fillon.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    MikeL said:

    If Melenchon teamed up with Hamon they could knock out both Macron and Fillon.

    And hand the Presidency to Le Pen.
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    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    I see that pb's Leavers are having a night off from arguing that the decision whether to leave the EU shouldn't be influenced by the people making the argument.

    There is no decision to be made. We decided. We're out. It's done.

    Go away and think of something new to whinge about.
    The whinging tonight has all been by bedwetting Leavers complaining that a former Prime Minister has views. They daren't engage with his arguments so they froth about his past.

    Much like, in a small way, the response to my article this morning by the more feeble-minded and incontinent posters.
    Alistair...I don't know why you even bother getting into a dialogue with the likes of the very clearly inadequate seant. You wrote a very good article this morning, all he can write is shit, crass, inane or stupid shit.

    In the long run we will win...it might take some time...but bigotry, small mindedness, blind ideology and nastiness just aren't compatible with human evolution...
    I'm sure some Neanderthals told each other likewise about those nasty Homo Sapiens.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Interesting that George Osborne is now on the Black Rock payroll.

    This is what Black Rock predicted about the UK economy on 14th July:

    ' Britain will be plunged into a recession this year and be plagued with lower economic growth for another five years because of the shock decision for the UK to leave the EU, BlackRock analysts have said.

    BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world with $4.6 trillion under management as of 2015. Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist, has said that firm's "base case" is recession, meaning at a minimum, it expects the UK GDP to fall for two successive quarters in a row. '

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-will-plunge-the-uk-into-a-recession-in-the-next-year-blackrock-says-a7134616.html

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/issue-1436/news
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