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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working class

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  • In the sense that "Downfall" was box office?
    No idea - do not watch movies
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,800
    Sean_F said:

    Once I've read A Kingdom Asunder, I'll start on Blood of Elves (is that the best book to start with, or should I start with short stories?)
    Start with the short stories, they are quite important as they lay the foundations of all of the three major characters.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    Trump is just amazing - I have never seen the MSM so comprehensively put in their box. Trump to Sopel of the BBC. Trump - Where are you from - Sopel - the BBC - Trump - here's another beauty - Sopel impartial free and fair -Trump just like CNN.

    Box office

    Not watching it but...

    we may laugh but surely the next step having discredited the existing news, is to create the news you would prefer? That way danger lies.
  • TOPPING said:

    Not watching it but...

    we may laugh but surely the next step having discredited the existing news, is to create the news you would prefer? That way danger lies.
    The problem is that the MSM do a good job of discrediting their own news and have met their match in Trump
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    The problem is that the MSM do a good job of discrediting their own news and have met their match in Trump
    I'm not sure what that means. How has the BBC for example discredited their own news?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jamiemaxwell86: Trump just asked April Ryan, an African American reporter, if she would set-up a meeting for him with the Congressional Black Caucus.

    @glcarlstrom: Trump is asking a black reporter to set up a meeting for him with the Congressional Black Caucus.

    @mehdirhasan: Let's be clear: because she's a black journalist. All black people must know each other, right? twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/sta…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    The problem is that the MSM do a good job of discrediting their own news and have met their match in Trump
    He is not the lesser of two evils in that scenario however.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    The problem is that the MSM do a good job of discrediting their own news and have met their match in Trump
    For sure G, they are not used to getting told they are a bunch of lying fannies
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2017
    After 8 years of cold fish Obama, what a breath of fresh air President Trump is. Bravura.
  • TOPPING said:

    I'm not sure what that means. How has the BBC for example discredited their own news?
    They do it regularly with their political bias
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ali
    My timeline is full of voters loving a press conference taking place and full of reporters decrying the death of democracy. Hilarious.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    They do it regularly with their political bias
    who are they biased towards?
  • Trump needs to hold more of these open press conferences. He will improve his standing if he continues to interact like today
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Matt K Lewis
    From a buddy of mine out west. https://t.co/Ru53cFkloh
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Whatever your views of Trump are, it has to be said he is incredibly engaging. Unspun, brutally honest, direct to the point of destruction, mad as a March hare, all the above and a lot more, but a million miles away from super polished Obama and the liberal leftist clique. The media, and most of the world's politicians, do not get Trump at all.
  • TOPPING said:

    who are they biased towards?
    The Guardian reading set
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    Scott_P said:

    @jamiemaxwell86: Trump just asked April Ryan, an African American reporter, if she would set-up a meeting for him with the Congressional Black Caucus.

    @glcarlstrom: Trump is asking a black reporter to set up a meeting for him with the Congressional Black Caucus.

    @mehdirhasan: Let's be clear: because she's a black journalist. All black people must know each other, right? twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/sta…

    When I saw it it looked like she asked him if he was going to set up a meeting with them, he asked if she knew them and when she said "yes", he said "set it up"
  • Sky - a jaw dropping press conference - agreed as the MSM were routed
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Jason said:

    Whatever your views of Trump are, it has to be said he is incredibly engaging. Unspun, brutally honest, direct to the point of destruction, mad as a March hare, all the above and a lot more, but a million miles away from super polished Obama and the liberal leftist clique. The media, and most of the world's politicians, do not get Trump at all.

    And he's re-energising politics; which must be good for democracy (as long as we all live to enjoy it!)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    The Guardian reading set
    The Guardian? You mean they have a political position? Are they the only one?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    The replies to this are typical - add an h to the Url

    Ann Coulter
    Trump to BBC reporter: "Yeah, that's another beauty."

    ttps://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/832302640205815808
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited February 2017

    Sky - a jaw dropping press conference - agreed as the MSM were routed

    Why is that good? What do you think the media/MSM is?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    isam said:

    When I saw it it looked like she asked him if he was going to set up a meeting with them, he asked if she knew them and when she said "yes", he said "set it up"
    Ah, context. :smiley:
  • TOPPING said:

    Why is that good? What do you think the media/MSM is?
    Biased in the main
  • Jason said:

    Whatever your views of Trump are, it has to be said he is incredibly engaging. Unspun, brutally honest, direct to the point of destruction, mad as a March hare, all the above and a lot more, but a million miles away from super polished Obama and the liberal leftist clique. The media, and most of the world's politicians, do not get Trump at all.

    It's a new twist on King Lear: the Fool inherits the kingdom.
  • Trump says CNN hate him.

    So sad.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    Biased in the main
    Yours seems quite a simple view. No offence.
  • Sky and BBC in collective meltdown
  • Trump says he is the least anti semetic of anybody ever but slags off the Jewish reporter for asking his question.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    Mr. F, by chance, Blood of Elves is one of the first books on the "Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought" for Kingdom Asunder.

    As is Best Served Cold, by Joe Abercrombie, and The Dragonbone Chair, by Tad Williams.

    Not read any of The Witcher books. May give them a look, wallet/time permitting, when my to-read pile has diminished. Almost finished The Darkness That Comes Before, by R. Scott Bakker.

    Best Served Cold is probably my favourite Abercrombie book. It is very funny in a dark way, with the heroine being described (quite accurately) as "thief, blackmailer, murderer of innocents, and keen practiser of incest."
  • TOPPING said:

    Yours seems quite a simple view. No offence.
    It is a simple view and of course no offence taken.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Trump says he is the least anti semetic of anybody ever but slags off the Jewish reporter for asking his question.

    He slags him off for being Jewish, or being a reporter? :p
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This was the most entertaining no nonsense press conference I've ever seen - he enjoyed every minute of it.

    I'd watch one every day
  • Trump says CNN hate him.

    So sad.

    And compared the BBC to CNN - Jon Sopel for once looked speechless
  • isam said:

    When I saw it it looked like she asked him if he was going to set up a meeting with them, he asked if she knew them and when she said "yes", he said "set it up"
    LOL well that's a very different meaning!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    Trump says CNN hate him.

    So sad.

    But true
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,627
    Sean_F said:

    Best Served Cold is probably my favourite Abercrombie book. It is very funny in a dark way, with the heroine being described (quite accurately) as "thief, blackmailer, murderer of innocents, and keen practiser of incest."
    My favourite too. The comedy in it is excellent!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    TOPPING said:

    Yours seems quite a simple view. No offence.
    Far better than the usual biased view on here though, no offence.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Trump says he is the least anti semetic of anybody ever but slags off the Jewish reporter for asking his question.

    Yesterday the PM of Israel made a point of saying Trump was very pro-Israel - I'd rather believe the PM of a country than a random guy with an axe to grind.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    And compared the BBC to CNN - Jon Sopel for once looked speechless
    I can't stand Sopel - he should work for C4 News
  • PlatoSaid said:

    I can't stand Sopel - he should work for C4 News
    Transfer to CNN his natural home
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,771
    Of course his supporters will love it and his critics will hate it.

    But what will the key swing voters think about it?

    Press conferences ultimately aren't going to matter one way or the other.

    Will they see results on the ground that will retain their votes?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    edited February 2017

    LOL well that's a very different meaning!
    I was watching it and that's how it seemed, maybe the playback/script will prove me wrong
  • Mr. F, that's a common view of Best Served Cold. Personally, it's my least favourite Abercrombie book (not read his YA ones).

    He did write a very interesting blog about what it might read like if all the genders were swapped.

    Hope he gets back to the Circle of the World [think that's the name] soonish.
  • And compared the BBC to CNN - Jon Sopel for once looked speechless
    Sopel claiming the BBC is impartial is ridiculous. Not only is true impartiality impossible out of the journalists and editors who work for the BBC what proportion do you think preferred Trump over Hillary? What proportion would admit it?
  • Miss Plato, I like Sopel's appearances on the news. It's always fun guessing if he's dyed his hair or not that day.
  • MikeL said:

    Of course his supporters will love it and his critics will hate it.

    But what will the key swing voters think about it?

    Press conferences ultimately aren't going to matter one way or the other.

    Will they see results on the ground that will retain their votes?

    He showed a side of him that I hadn't seen before and of course results will matter but they need time. He still worries me but he did make some very good sound points not least to be friendly with Russia if possible
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Sopel claiming the BBC is impartial is ridiculous. Not only is true impartiality impossible out of the journalists and editors who work for the BBC what proportion do you think preferred Trump over Hillary? What proportion would admit it?
    Their coverage of the election was dire. It seemed as though the majority of their stories on their website were talking about that frog image.
  • Brilliant from Trump.He probably spent more time talking to the Press today than Obama did in 8 years.As for John Sopel he was appalling.Trump haters need not respond.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    It is a simple view and of course no offence taken.
    Far too gracious for my churlish comment!

    Off to watch Deepwater Horizon.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TOPPING said:

    Far too gracious for my churlish comment!

    Off to watch Deepwater Horizon.
    Of course, the BP exec is turned into the villain. If you care about safety, it is a bad film. If you don't, it's a pretty good Hollywood romp.
  • TOPPING said:

    Far too gracious for my churlish comment!

    Off to watch Deepwater Horizon.
    My wife lost a nephew on the Piper Alfa disaster so we will give Deepwater Horizon a miss
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,674
    TOPPING said:

    Yours seems quite a simple view. No offence.
    If you think that 'MSM' outlets don't have their own biases and agenda, I think it's you who has the 'simple' view.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited February 2017
    Trump media questioners need to learn to ask more specific and shorter questions.

    Otherwise, as today Trump interupts their background lead-in before they get to an actual question and just talks generally about the issue they are raising - and we learn nothing.

    eg What action has he taken about the Russian incursions in the last week?

    Rather than a rambling context and an attempt to ask what he will do in future - to which he (rightly) says he is not going to tell them in advance.
  • Sopel claiming the BBC is impartial is ridiculous. Not only is true impartiality impossible out of the journalists and editors who work for the BBC what proportion do you think preferred Trump over Hillary? What proportion would admit it?
    As I recall Sopel was actually predicting Trump could win, so he was certainly able to overcome his own preferrences (whatever they are).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,674

    As I recall Sopel was actually predicting Trump could win, so he was certainly able to overcome his own preferrences (whatever they are).
    Utter bollocks. Predicting someone can win has no bearing on impartiality.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mollie
    It’s like Trump littered the room with rakes, enough for everyone to step on multiple times. https://t.co/eHNWbBOSly
  • Utter bollocks. Predicting someone can win has no bearing on impartiality.
    Just sometimes people's prejudice can impact their their judgement about who is going to win - it's called wishful thinking.
  • isam said:
    I actually think he comes out quite well there. She's trying to ask a "gotcha" question and gets caught out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    Sky - a jaw dropping press conference - agreed as the MSM were routed

    'Main stream media' is a nonsense phrase.
  • kle4 said:

    'Main stream media' is a nonsense phrase.
    Maybe but most people know what it means
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Brilliant from Trump.He probably spent more time talking to the Press today than Obama did in 8 years.As for John Sopel he was appalling.Trump haters need not respond.

    Didn't Obama hold like weekly press conferences?
  • Alistair said:

    Didn't Obama hold like weekly press conferences?
    Not as entertaining as Trump's today
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I actually think he comes out quite well there. She's trying to ask a "gotcha" question and gets caught out.
    Plenty to criticize him for, but not for that.

    But, god is he thin skinned and in constant need to tell everyone how great he is.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    He showed a side of him that I hadn't seen before and of course results will matter but they need time. He still worries me but he did make some very good sound points not least to be friendly with Russia if possible
    I took from that he is so thin skinned.

    If you upset him he isn't going to just turn the other cheek.

    Also, unbelievable levels of preening about how great he is.

    It's going to be a hell of a ride.
  • Floater said:

    I took from that he is so thin skinned.

    If you upset him he isn't going to just turn the other cheek.

    Also, unbelievable levels of preening about how great he is.

    It's going to be a hell of a ride.
    He is a formidable opponent - who knows where it all goes but he does have some good ideas
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    And compared the BBC to CNN - Jon Sopel for once looked speechless
    Got to admit I did enjoy him putting down our impartial *cough* BBC
  • Floater said:

    Plenty to criticize him for, but not for that.

    But, god is he thin skinned and in constant need to tell everyone how great he is.
    No disagreement here.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Trump says he is the least anti semetic of anybody ever but slags off the Jewish reporter for asking his question.

    err he slagged him off for being a reporter - the jewish gentleman was hardly alone in getting attacked by Trump
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    isam said:

    When I saw it it looked like she asked him if he was going to set up a meeting with them, he asked if she knew them and when she said "yes", he said "set it up"
    Trump also pointed out he had a meeting arranged with one of them who then backed out for political reasons.

    As someone said context is everything
  • The idea we can build a strong, reliable relationship with Trump lies in tatters on the White House floor.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @jamiemaxwell86: Trump just asked April Ryan, an African American reporter, if she would set-up a meeting for him with the Congressional Black Caucus.

    @glcarlstrom: Trump is asking a black reporter to set up a meeting for him with the Congressional Black Caucus.

    @mehdirhasan: Let's be clear: because she's a black journalist. All black people must know each other, right? twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/sta…

    I should have known it would be you spinning
  • The idea we can build a strong, reliable relationship with Trump lies in tatters on the White House floor.

    Premature by a mile
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Trump's presidency reminds me of Beckett. To adapt a little: 'It can't go on; it'll go on'.
  • Alistair- Yes I think you're right however Trump's content today was far reaching whereas BO I always found vacuous as the questions never stretched him as they were friendly if you know what I mean!!!

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Psychologically, that 90 mins press conference was a Trump rally for his base.

    A much needed shot in the arm after losing Flynn. The public rally in Florida on Saturday is a return to campaign mode.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852


    I'm Liberal/Left.

    Seriously?

    Who believes these charts anyway.

    The PoliticalCompass site appears to be connected to the One World Action charity founded by Glynis Kinnock, so there is room to suspect is political neutrality I would think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,427
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    It’s like Trump littered the room with rakes, enough for everyone to step on multiple times. https://t.co/eHNWbBOSly

    Trump clearly enjoys Sideshow Bob....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbd4t-ua-WQ
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    The moral high ground seems to be with people who take the piss out of facial tics.. funny old world
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    edited February 2017
    Floater said:

    I should have known it would be you spinning
    When Mehdi is involved it's 1.01 to be faux outrage. He is a classic reverse indicator

    My favourite was when he claimed the 7/7 bombers were integrated into normal British society because they played Cricket. Such a little known sport in the Asian community!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    The idea we can build a strong, reliable relationship with Trump lies in tatters on the White House floor.

    we didnt exactly build one with Obama

  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Trump is talking to the 'silent majority' and it is very effective indeed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708
    SeanT said:

    This is just superb. The War and Peace of bedwetting. The Ulysses of Pram Toy Chucking. Bravo, bravo.
    AC Grayling is such an embarrassment...
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    The idea we can build a strong, reliable relationship with Trump lies in tatters on the White House floor.

    “The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    SeanT said:

    The weird thing is, I know him vaguely. He and I have chatted. And he's a perfectly pleasant, clearly intelligent person

    But he's one of those sent totally tonto by Brexit. Just completely vampire-bat-shit voodoo crazy. It's a definite and particular phenomenon. Matthew Parris suffers from the same cognitive virus, though maybe not quite as acutely. So do you.

    The only parallels I can see are religious. An irrational faith, hitherto concealed, is suddenly and horribly threatened, indeed demolished. Madness ensues.

    The same phenomenon has been visible on the other side for years. True and Eurosceptic Believers in British Democracy have been frothing at the mouth since Maastricht. Now the virus leaps to a new species.
    Its much more simple than that, its called being a bad loser. I should know, I am one!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Ah, context. :smiley:
    For me it'a a very good example of "fake news".

    What he did was a brusque way of dealing with something he doesn't rank highly on his priorities.

    What they reported implied something entirely different
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    2015:

    Party %
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4

    What does Tories 50%, Labour 24.4% look like baxtered ?
    Those are UK figures . The GB figures - used by pollsters - in 2015 were Con 37.8% Lab 31.2%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Trump needs to hold more of these open press conferences. He will improve his standing if he continues to interact like today

    @robertmooreitv: One Republican Senator texted to CNN: The President should be doing this with a therapist, not on live TV.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    @robertmooreitv: One Republican Senator texted to CNN: The President should be doing this with a therapist, not on live TV.
    Trump has said what most people think - the press/MSM is biased.

    Obviously, he's portraying it as uniquely against him, but it's really no different to the left's obsession with power of the Murdoch press and Dacre at the Mail, or the right's gripes with the BBC and Guardian.

    I have no real idea who could be considered as an impartial source of news these days.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    SeanT said:

    No, it's more than that. It's believing (with some evidence) that you have lost a fundamental vote, indeed feeling that something in your political soul, your sense of identity, has been betrayed, and done so on the basis of falsehoods (again with some evidence)

    And the thing is: the europhiles are right. The Leave campaign lied and lied again (£350m for the NHS etc etc), so their anger is justified.

    What they don't understand, because they are fundamentally too stupid and short-sighted, is that the same was done to eurosceptics for FORTY YEARS. "It's just an economic community". "The Constitution is a tidying up process". "Put away your placards". "There will be no significant loss of sovereignty". "I offer a cast iron guarantee of a referendum". *Look, this is me, Gordon Brown, signing the Lisbon Treaty seven hours late and alone, to show it doesn't really matter*.

    Eurosceptics had to suffer the lies, deceit, deviousness and outright, rancid cant of the Establishment for five decades, continuously. It sent some of us bonkers (including me, nearly).

    Now the other side are getting a fat dose of it, in one go, though nothing compared to the lies told by their side in the first place.

    So be it. Let them stew in their home-brewed juices of madness.
    Yes, if you watch that Peter Hitchens programme, "This Sceptic Isle" he shows that they bigwigs knew all along what they intended it to be. My main man EP rumbled it immediately
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    I think they will win Stoke easily. As Nuttall self destructs even having a dork as a candidate is no handicap. Copeland is trickier despite having a much stronger candidate there.

    But the crunch comes in May. Last time, with some careful and clever expectation management Labour and Corbyn came out quite well. It will be much harder this time if the polling stays anywhere near its current levels. It will not be so much people switching as Labour supporters just not bothering to come out.
    I agree with that but perhaps worth remebering that Labour did not perform as strongly in 2013 as in 2012 . UKIP had taken off by May 2013 in the aftermath of their performamce at the Eastleigh by election and to some extent may have helped the Tories that year by splitting the anti-Tory vote in a way that did not happen a year earlier. Labour also lost seats to UKIP which it might hope to win back this year.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos Mori certainly have a left wing skew in their polls.
    They have actually produced the biggest Tory lead to date since May became PM - 18%!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    From memory, yes, it does tend to dip a little.

    However, there are exceptions. 2001-5 saw the Lib Dems perform unusually strongly mid-term due to Iraq, and 1979-83 and 1983-7 both saw the Alliance perform extremely strongly when both main parties were unpopular.

    Post-2015 was always likely to be an exception too given the highly unusual election (in Lib Dem terms) preceding it.
    The evidence is actually very clear. The Liberals failed to repeat at the 1959 election the success enjoyed at the Torrington and Rochdale byelections in 1958. The Orpington triumph of March 1962 was shortlived and was followed by only a modest advance at the 1964 election withe number of Liberal MPs rising to 9 from 6 in 1959. Even the Liberal surge in the February 1974 election led to a result which fell well short of what polls and by elections had been hinting at in 1973.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Cumbria Times and Star newspaper has an online poll on by-election.
    Current results:


    Who will you vote for in the Copeland by-election on February 23?
    24.1 % : Labour's Gillian Troughton

    23.2 % : The Conservative Party's Trudy Harrison

    33.5 % : The Liberal Democrats' Rebecca Hanson

    9.3 % : UKIP

    I am aware of a person who has already voted in excess of 100 times in that online poll!
  • justin124 said:

    I am aware of a person who has already voted in excess of 100 times in that online poll!
    Did they vote 124 times Mr 124?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Scottish independence poll:
    Yes: 44% (+1)
    No: 51% (-)
    (via Panelbase / 07 - 13 Feb)
    4 replies 27 retweets 12 likes
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8s8 seconds ago

    Scottish local election voting intention:
    SNP: 47%
    CON: 26%
    LAB: 14%
    LDEM: 5%
    GRN: 4%
    UKIP: 3%
    (via Panelbase / 07 - 13 Feb)
This discussion has been closed.