politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Centr

Who does a really really low turnout in Stoke favour?

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

How many of the last major political betting events have you called right, Rogerdamus? This is politicalbetting, after all, not politicalhandwringing.

Posters have been making money betting against my predictions for years. I was the one who cemented Mike's 50/1 on Obama by saying 'Don't touch it with a bargepole'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgHlAdSpn7Y

This really annoyed me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38972437

Not that Sherlock/Cumberbatch won, but this line [which I recall from the programme, when I used to watch it]:

"He continued: "Who would have thought a high-functioning sociopath could be so popular... all over the world?""

Psychopaths/sociopaths, as well as sometimes being a bit murdery, are defined by things like glib charm and high intelligence. They make fantastic leaders. They're not autistic. They're high-functioning by nature.

Saying 'high-functioning psychopath/sociopath*' is like saying 'mathematically talented savant'.

*Debate rages as to whether there's a difference. Some say psychopaths are capable of empathy and can switch it on and off, whereas sociopaths are incapable.

Reading up on it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychopathy#Sociopathy
Psychopath, my preferred term, does seem better. Psychopaths are born, not made. That's why almost all of them are men.

Top of the article also misses off the psychopath's supreme capacity for deceit and elevated average intelligence.

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

That makes no sense.

US banks hate Dodd-Frank, partly because it is excessively rule bound, and partly because it prevents retail banks from offering lucrative investment banking services.

This last part is very important: a major cause of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was because retail banks were able to use implicit government guarantees to lever up and trade. (Which was fabulous while asset prices were rising, but turned out to be a complete disaster when they went the other way.)

The Trump tweet would seem to suggest that there will be a straight repeal of Dodd-Frank. If that were to happen, and US retail banks were to allowed to trade with their customers' money, that would be good for US banks' profits in the near-term, but probably not good for world financial stability in the long run. Dodd-Frank, for all its flaws, attempted to stop banks from excessive gambling. I hope it will be replaced and not simply repealed.

Mr. Eagles, Lib Dems?

Roger said:

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

How many of the last major political betting events have you called right, Rogerdamus? This is politicalbetting, after all, not politicalhandwringing.

Posters have been making money betting against my predictions for years. I was the one who cemented Mike's 50/1 on Obama by saying 'Don't touch it with a bargepole'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgHlAdSpn7Y

Are we getting as Oscars piece from you this year?

Fantastically predictable how the "If Trump wins we all owe Plato a big apology" has morphed into "Plato never predicted Trump" from the nerdy after timers

What a fine, patriotic, principled, lion of a man.

An unusual new relationship has blossomed on Valentine's Day with a former Labour county councillor – and vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn – joining the Conservatives.

Leicestershire county councillor Leon Spence has crossed the floor to join the Tories at County Hall with an election looming in May.


http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/former-labour-county-councillor-and-corbyn-critic-joins-the-tories/story-30134928-detail/story.html#02hi02Em6AO5iMuf.99

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Lib Dems?

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who does a really really low turnout in Stoke favour?

On a 5% turnout, I'd guess the tories would win.

Well I'm not predicting it to go as low as 5%, I'm just reminded that Stoke-on-Central had the lowest turnout at the general election.

Will voters really come out in their droves on a cold February evening?

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Mortimer said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

How many of the last major political betting events have you called right, Rogerdamus? This is politicalbetting, after all, not politicalhandwringing.

Posters have been making money betting against my predictions for years. I was the one who cemented Mike's 50/1 on Obama by saying 'Don't touch it with a bargepole'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgHlAdSpn7Y

Are we getting as Oscars piece from you this year?

I do hope so, there was a stonking 40/1ish shot that came in last year.

Blue_rog said:

Yes please. Fences seems to be getting a bit of Hype

I tipped Hidden Figures at 150/1, please make it happen.

DecrepitJohnL said:

If the Prime Minister is going to Copeland, presumably the Conservative Party's canvassing (or Facebook likes or whatever is this week's big data equivalent) shows it has a good chance of winning the seat.

In Stoke, Nuttall looks doomed although I'm not sure how deeply Hillsborough resonates 50 miles south of Liverpool.

I simply don't understand the mentality which makes people want to claim that they were at the scene of a tragedy. Why? It is so bizarre and so offensive to those who were there and did suffer.

isam said:

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, while everyone else was congratulating themselves on how right they'd got it only to be shown to be wrong, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site

Nonsense. A week before both elections she said she had no idea who would win.

Pointing out that your argument is based on lies and hypocrisy is not bullying.

Oh Ok, you are saying Plato isn't on the side of Trump/Leave PB wise then. Not sure I agree but anything goes

No, I'm saying she didn't actually have any useful insights into the outcome of either election.

Neither did 95% of the people on here, but half of them think they are shrewd bettors! She was one of the few people to post articles that gave Trump a chance, while everyone else was counting their Hillary winnings. Ditto the referendum, read the threads

I made big money (by my betting standards, though probably not yours) by correctly backing Brexit and Trump, despite them being the exact opposite of what I wanted to happen.

Mr. Isam, not a fan of short odds bets myself, but laying Con-Copeland/UKIP-Stoke together at 3.15 does indeed seem stonking.

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

Nonsense. A week before both elections she said she had no idea who would win.

Pointing out that your argument is based on lies and hypocrisy is not bullying.

Oh Ok, you are saying Plato isn't on the side of Trump/Leave PB wise then. Not sure I agree but anything goes

No, I'm saying she didn't actually have any useful insights into the outcome of either election.

Neither did 95% of the people on here, but half of them think they are shrewd bettors! She was one of the few people to post articles that gave Trump a chance, while everyone else was counting their Hillary winnings. Ditto the referendum, read the threads

I made big money (by my betting standards, though probably not yours) by correctly backing Brexit and Trump, despite them being the exact opposite of what I wanted to happen.

Well done. I am not having a go at you, but I think it is untrue to say that Plato wasn't generally pro Trumps chances. I reckon she would have got a fair amount of stick had Clinton won, and people were saying she was owed an apology when Trump did.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

The lack of the Brexit recession must surely in part be down to the world economy improving. Commodity stocks have doubled in a year, and oil has jumped too. China, USA and the EU are also growing. A rising tide floats all boats. How long the tide rises is another question. It would be ironic and unfortunate if we end the L shaped recovery from the GFC by a wave of protectionism pushing us back into recession.

Off-topic, but related to one of yesterday's conversations:

"His Dark Materials follow-ups announced by author Philip Pullman"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38978023

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

TSE if you post that Scott will be out of a job

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

When the history books are written, I'm sure a whole paragraph will be dedicated to George.

In the footnotes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

TSE if you post that Scott will be out of a job

Post it? I'm going to write a thread on it.

Real terms wage growth going into May being the headline I think...

isam said:

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

not_on_fire said:

isam said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, while everyone else was congratulating themselves on how right they'd got it only to be shown to be wrong, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site

Nonsense. A week before both elections she said she had no idea who would win.

Pointing out that your argument is based on lies and hypocrisy is not bullying.

Oh Ok, you are saying Plato isn't on the side of Trump/Leave PB wise then. Not sure I agree but anything goes

No, I'm saying she didn't actually have any useful insights into the outcome of either election.

Neither did 95% of the people on here, but half of them think they are shrewd bettors! She was one of the few people to post articles that gave Trump a chance, while everyone else was counting their Hillary winnings. Ditto the referendum, read the threads

You read old PB threads and you're calling other posters nerdy?

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.

I'm applauding the account!

No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.

As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.

Just for the records its worth noting that the neutrality of snopes is starting to look a bit shaky, specifically they are refusing to comment on its assessment process, the people involved etc, and largely responds to any requests for details about their inner workings as, in effect, "its a secret"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2016/12/22/the-daily-mail-snopes-story-and-fact-checking-the-fact-checkers/

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

CarlottaVance said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

When the history books are written, I'm sure a whole paragraph will be dedicated to George.

In the footnotes.

Titled 'How to master strategize yourself onto the back benches'

Modern day Churchill, WSC ended up on the backbenches when the party thought he wrong.

History proved WSC right, I expect the same for George Osborne, CH

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

CarlottaVance said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

When the history books are written, I'm sure a whole paragraph will be dedicated to George.

In the footnotes.

Titled 'How to master strategize yourself onto the back benches'

Osborne is only on the backbench because of one thing. His strategy didn't take account of Dave not listening to his advice and instead calling a EU referendum. Osborne said it was a "crazy idea" according to accounts.

General comment that I've made before - PB is at its least interesting when it's full of anonymous posters criticising other anonymous posters. It just encourages trolling.

On Stoke, just to play devil's advocate - Trump is evidence for the theory that there's no publicity that is bad publicity. Nuttall is now certainly the best-known candidate in Stoke: indeed, some Labour literature is so obsessed with him that you might at a casual glance think he was the Labour candidate. Possibly some voters will feel hey, he's stirring people up, that's what we need?

I do think Labour will hold it. But it's not a 1.01 slam-dunk IMO.

AlsoIndigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.

I'm applauding the account!

No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.

As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.

Just for the records its worth noting that the neutrality of snopes is starting to look a bit shaky, specifically they are refusing to comment on its assessment process, the people involved etc, and largely responds to any requests for details about their inner workings as, in effect, "its a secret"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2016/12/22/the-daily-mail-snopes-story-and-fact-checking-the-fact-checkers/

Yes, you need to be careful with fact-checking sites. But :

1) There are plenty of other links I could have provided.

2) The main issue is that Plato confused 'uranium ore' with 'plutonium'. As anyone with a scintilla of knowledge about this knows, there is a world of difference. Needless to say, what she wrote would have much more impact if true than the reality. Plutonium is nasty stuff. Uranium ore generally is not, although it's not a good idea to ingest it.

Here is wiki on the company involved, to show quite how multinational it is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_One

rottenborough said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

CarlottaVance said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

When the history books are written, I'm sure a whole paragraph will be dedicated to George.

In the footnotes.

Titled 'How to master strategize yourself onto the back benches'

Osborne is only on the backbench because of one thing. His strategy didn't take account of Dave not listening to his advice and instead calling a EU referendum. Osborne said it was a "crazy idea" according to accounts.

And yet, he claimed to be Eurosceptic.
Dozy, dishonest twat more like,

NickPalmer said:

General comment that I've made before - PB is at its least interesting when it's full of anonymous posters criticising other anonymous posters. It just encourages trolling.

On Stoke, just to play devil's advocate - Trump is evidence for the theory that there's no publicity that is bad publicity. Nuttall is now certainly the best-known candidate in Stoke: indeed, some Labour literature is so obsessed with him that you might at a casual glance think he was the Labour candidate. Possibly some voters will feel hey, he's stirring people up, that's what we need?

I do think Labour will hold it. But it's not a 1.01 slam-dunk IMO.

They were evens. Evens to hold Stoke. I mean, heavens to betsy. The crisis of confidence in Labour is meaningful regardless of results.

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

That makes no sense.

US banks hate Dodd-Frank, partly because it is excessively rule bound, and partly because it prevents retail banks from offering lucrative investment banking services.

This last part is very important: a major cause of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was because retail banks were able to use implicit government guarantees to lever up and trade. (Which was fabulous while asset prices were rising, but turned out to be a complete disaster when they went the other way.)

The Trump tweet would seem to suggest that there will be a straight repeal of Dodd-Frank. If that were to happen, and US retail banks were to allowed to trade with their customers' money, that would be good for US banks' profits in the near-term, but probably not good for world financial stability in the long run. Dodd-Frank, for all its flaws, attempted to stop banks from excessive gambling. I hope it will be replaced and not simply repealed.

The conversations that I've been briefed on (so only a very partial view) was that there are specific clauses/parts of the law that are of concern which are being addressed.

SimonStClare said:

surbiton said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?

Plato is a long term poster here, a former POTY and has attended many PB meets. That makes her more real IMHO, than a poster whose never been seen afaik and changes their PB handle more often than a Brexiteers changes their underpants.

If Plato was POTY on PB then the site is more barking than I thought it was! I'm sorry but most of what she posts is alt-right conspiracy drivel that could be debunked in minutes (as JJ did on the plutonium nonsense) except I doubt many people can be bothered.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, not a fan of short odds bets myself, but laying Con-Copeland/UKIP-Stoke together at 3.15 does indeed seem stonking.

Yes I'm on that too.

It feels similar to my bets on Clinton between 47 and 50% of popular vote.

I could easily win the bet whilst getting everything else totally wrong.

rkrkrk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, not a fan of short odds bets myself, but laying Con-Copeland/UKIP-Stoke together at 3.15 does indeed seem stonking.

Yes I'm on that too.

It feels similar to my bets on Clinton between 47 and 50% of popular vote.

I could easily win the bet whilst getting everything else totally wrong.

Arf I've laid that £5/£15 too.

Incidentally, and following up my own post, there's often a problem with the sniff-test when politicians do deals after they've left power. The Clintons' greed after he left power sowed the seed of both her losses - in 2008 and 2016.

rkrkrk said:

NickPalmer said:

General comment that I've made before - PB is at its least interesting when it's full of anonymous posters criticising other anonymous posters. It just encourages trolling.

On Stoke, just to play devil's advocate - Trump is evidence for the theory that there's no publicity that is bad publicity. Nuttall is now certainly the best-known candidate in Stoke: indeed, some Labour literature is so obsessed with him that you might at a casual glance think he was the Labour candidate. Possibly some voters will feel hey, he's stirring people up, that's what we need?

I do think Labour will hold it. But it's not a 1.01 slam-dunk IMO.

If the idea is to send Labour a message that they are fed up then voting UKIP in a by election is a great way of doing it...

People in Stoke have already shown they want change, the referendum result proves that

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

That makes no sense.

US banks hate Dodd-Frank, partly because it is excessively rule bound, and partly because it prevents retail banks from offering lucrative investment banking services.

This last part is very important: a major cause of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was because retail banks were able to use implicit government guarantees to lever up and trade. (Which was fabulous while asset prices were rising, but turned out to be a complete disaster when they went the other way.)

The Trump tweet would seem to suggest that there will be a straight repeal of Dodd-Frank. If that were to happen, and US retail banks were to allowed to trade with their customers' money, that would be good for US banks' profits in the near-term, but probably not good for world financial stability in the long run. Dodd-Frank, for all its flaws, attempted to stop banks from excessive gambling. I hope it will be replaced and not simply repealed.

The conversations that I've been briefed on (so only a very partial view) was that there are specific clauses/parts of the law that are of concern which are being addressed.

Financial regulation should be distilled to: minimum 12% tier one equity capital now, going to 15% by 2022; separation of investment and retail banking.

Theuniondivvie said:

This is interesting, not so much for Holocaust denial/Irving thing which is creepy but open to interpretation, rather Nuttalls's reaction at the end. His modus operandi started early it seems.

' My student; the anti-Semite

...I met Nuttall to discuss what he had written and he gave a tearful denial, saying that his girlfriend had downloaded the references to Irving’s book from the internet, blaming her rather than his own judgment. He accepted that the words could be construed as having an unpleasant, even racist meaning. But he denied that this had been his intention. He seemed shocked to be challenged about anything – like smug, arrogant, people everywhere he was most comfortable in a small bubble where no-one could disagree with him.'

http://tinyurl.com/zknktx9

The dates in that don't stack up, the Irving libel trial was decided in April 2000 yet he's talking about it in December 1999.


In early December 1999, Nuttall’s cohort were set a standard essay on the causes of the Holocaust. I forget the exact title, but the question was something like whether the Final Solution was principally caused by Hitler’s anti-Semitism or by other factors related to the German economy or state. To my surprise, Nuttall’s answer worked in two footnotes to different books by David Irving. I wasn’t expecting this, because Irving wasn’t on the course reading list: this was after his libel trial and historians regarded Irving as an unpleasant, racist crank who was beyond the

isam said:

rkrkrk said:

NickPalmer said:

General comment that I've made before - PB is at its least interesting when it's full of anonymous posters criticising other anonymous posters. It just encourages trolling.

On Stoke, just to play devil's advocate - Trump is evidence for the theory that there's no publicity that is bad publicity. Nuttall is now certainly the best-known candidate in Stoke: indeed, some Labour literature is so obsessed with him that you might at a casual glance think he was the Labour candidate. Possibly some voters will feel hey, he's stirring people up, that's what we need?

I do think Labour will hold it. But it's not a 1.01 slam-dunk IMO.

If the idea is to send Labour a message that they are fed up then voting UKIP in a by election is a great way of doing it...

People in Stoke have already shown they want change, the referendum result proves that

It may well show that people want out of the EU, UKIP... not so much.

JosiasJessop said:

AlsoIndigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.

I'm applauding the account!

No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.

As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.

Just for the records its worth noting that the neutrality of snopes is starting to look a bit shaky, specifically they are refusing to comment on its assessment process, the people involved etc, and largely responds to any requests for details about their inner workings as, in effect, "its a secret"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2016/12/22/the-daily-mail-snopes-story-and-fact-checking-the-fact-checkers/

Yes, you need to be careful with fact-checking sites. But :

1) There are plenty of other links I could have provided.

2) The main issue is that Plato confused 'uranium ore' with 'plutonium'. As anyone with a scintilla of knowledge about this knows, there is a world of difference. Needless to say, what she wrote would have much more impact if true than the reality. Plutonium is nasty stuff. Uranium ore generally is not, although it's not a good idea to ingest it.

Here is wiki on the company involved, to show quite how multinational it is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_One

Wasn't doubting you at all, I was just observing that quite a few people on here have been brandishing snopes links to support their cases at a time when snopes are starting to look at best furtive, if not downright secretive when questioned about their fact checking processes. Might be time to look at other sites...

Slightly scary in that regard this opaque and evasive operation is likely to be the sole arbiter of what is true and what is fake news on Facebook shortly.

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.

I'm applauding the account!

No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.

As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.

Just for the records its worth noting that the neutrality of snopes is starting to look a bit shaky, specifically they are refusing to comment on its assessment process, the people involved etc, and largely responds to any requests for details about their inner workings as, in effect, "its a secret"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2016/12/22/the-daily-mail-snopes-story-and-fact-checking-the-fact-checkers/

After 2,500 words, does Forbes actually get to the point and if so, what is it?

This creates a deeply unsettling environment in which when one tries to fact check the fact checker, the answer is the equivalent of “its secret.” Moreover, David’s responses regarding the hiring of strongly partisan fact checkers and his lack of response on screening and assessment protocols present a deeply troubling picture of a secretive black box that acts as ultimate arbitrator of truth, yet reveals little of its inner workings.

Morris_Dancer said:

This really annoyed me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38972437

Not that Sherlock/Cumberbatch won, but this line [which I recall from the programme, when I used to watch it]:

"He continued: "Who would have thought a high-functioning sociopath could be so popular... all over the world?""

Psychopaths/sociopaths, as well as sometimes being a bit murdery, are defined by things like glib charm and high intelligence. They make fantastic leaders. They're not autistic. They're high-functioning by nature.

Saying 'high-functioning psychopath/sociopath*' is like saying 'mathematically talented savant'.

*Debate rages as to whether there's a difference. Some say psychopaths are capable of empathy and can switch it on and off, whereas sociopaths are incapable.

Reading up on it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychopathy#Sociopathy
Psychopath, my preferred term, does seem better. Psychopaths are born, not made. That's why almost all of them are men.

Top of the article also misses off the psychopath's supreme capacity for deceit and elevated average intelligence.

Good morning all. Reddit occasionally has AMAs (Ask Me Anything) with sociopaths. They're interesting reading, though, of course, the provenance is dodgy.

Most psychopaths suffer from poor impulse control. Hannibal Lecter, iconic as he is, is an outlier.

foxinsoxuk said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

rottenborough said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

CarlottaVance said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

BBC - UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million in three months to December, while average earnings rose 2.6%, figures show.

Despite Brexit..?

A tribute to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.

He didn't realise how Brexit proof he made the economy.

Huzzah for George.

When the history books are written, I'm sure a whole paragraph will be dedicated to George.

In the footnotes.

Titled 'How to master strategize yourself onto the back benches'

Osborne is only on the backbench because of one thing. His strategy didn't take account of Dave not listening to his advice and instead calling a EU referendum. Osborne said it was a "crazy idea" according to accounts.

And yet, he claimed to be Eurosceptic.
Dozy, dishonest twat more like,

It is perfectly possible to be a eurosceptic remainer, indeed virtually all remainers were suggesting some changes in the direction of travel of the EU.

How does one remain a eurosceptic remainder after changes have been suggested by various people over the last four decades and almost uniformly been told to piss off unless their suggestion was squarely in the realm of "more Europe" ?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.

I'm applauding the account!

No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.

As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.

Just for the records its worth noting that the neutrality of snopes is starting to look a bit shaky, specifically they are refusing to comment on its assessment process, the people involved etc, and largely responds to any requests for details about their inner workings as, in effect, "its a secret"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2016/12/22/the-daily-mail-snopes-story-and-fact-checking-the-fact-checkers/

After 2,500 words, does Forbes actually get to the point and if so, what is it?

This creates a deeply unsettling environment in which when one tries to fact check the fact checker, the answer is the equivalent of “its secret.” Moreover, David’s responses regarding the hiring of strongly partisan fact checkers and his lack of response on screening and assessment protocols present a deeply troubling picture of a secretive black box that acts as ultimate arbitrator of truth, yet reveals little of its inner workings.

I think it's overstated. Or at least from my perspective it is given I check things like whether Frozen is in fact the most cosplayed role ever.

Princess Leia in a gold bikini and Harley Quin are the most cosplayed roles ever.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is interesting, not so much for Holocaust denial/Irving thing which is creepy but open to interpretation, rather Nuttalls's reaction at the end. His modus operandi started early it seems.

' My student; the anti-Semite

...I met Nuttall to discuss what he had written and he gave a tearful denial, saying that his girlfriend had downloaded the references to Irving’s book from the internet, blaming her rather than his own judgment. He accepted that the words could be construed as having an unpleasant, even racist meaning. But he denied that this had been his intention. He seemed shocked to be challenged about anything – like smug, arrogant, people everywhere he was most comfortable in a small bubble where no-one could disagree with him.'

http://tinyurl.com/zknktx9

The dates in that don't stack up, the Irving libel trial was decided in April 2000 yet he's talking about it in December 1999.


In early December 1999, Nuttall’s cohort were set a standard essay on the causes of the Holocaust. I forget the exact title, but the question was something like whether the Final Solution was principally caused by Hitler’s anti-Semitism or by other factors related to the German economy or state. To my surprise, Nuttall’s answer worked in two footnotes to different books by David Irving. I wasn’t expecting this, because Irving wasn’t on the course reading list: this was after his libel trial and historians regarded Irving as an unpleasant, racist crank who was beyond the

Perhaps the author's girlfriend researched the dates..

TheWhiteRabbit said:

isam rkrkrk pulps

My book is currently

Lab/Lab +27
Con/Lab +12
Lab/UKIP -9
Con/UKIP -24

So not a dissimilar result, just with more variations. And of course I suspect much less money wagered!

Similar. We can comiserate when we both lose money.

I've greened up on the individual by elections so have taken a little more risk on this market.
Not sure why I've ended up so cautious on Lab/UKIP.... If labour lse Stoke I suspect they won't win Copeland....

Con/UKIP -62
Lab/UKIP +25
Con/Lab +24
Lab/Lab +36
All other -8

Mr. M, is it overstated? I thought self-control, being cold and calculating, were psychopathic traits.

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

rkrkrk said:

NickPalmer said:

General comment that I've made before - PB is at its least interesting when it's full of anonymous posters criticising other anonymous posters. It just encourages trolling.

On Stoke, just to play devil's advocate - Trump is evidence for the theory that there's no publicity that is bad publicity. Nuttall is now certainly the best-known candidate in Stoke: indeed, some Labour literature is so obsessed with him that you might at a casual glance think he was the Labour candidate. Possibly some voters will feel hey, he's stirring people up, that's what we need?

I do think Labour will hold it. But it's not a 1.01 slam-dunk IMO.

If the idea is to send Labour a message that they are fed up then voting UKIP in a by election is a great way of doing it...

People in Stoke have already shown they want change, the referendum result proves that

It may well show that people want out of the EU, UKIP... not so much.

It could be that yeah. Now we have voted to Leave they might think it is safe to vote Labour again

UKIP are going to be in a holding pattern sitting around 10% for the next couple of years. If BrExit means proper immigration control, no CJEU, no ongoing payments and no customs union, then UKIP will drops to c. 5% and be effective dead. If BrExit means free movement with a job offer and EEA/EFTA in all but name, UKIP will be back in business, with a large slice of voters feeling the government is taking the piss. The infelicity they appear to have having with their leaders probably won't make much difference if they are the only party of "real out" available to soak up the votes of those the feel sold out.