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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Centr

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  • https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/831719693329264642

    Can all the PB sharp minds who were predicting a Trumpency would subside into a run of the mill, unremarkable administration reveal when that's going to kick in?
    Asking for a friend. In fact all my friends. And my family. And me.

    I was of the opinion that the American people had voted, and that we should respect their views-Clinton was hardly an outstanding candidate anyway, and realistically, how bad could Trump actually be? Surely he'd tone down his rhetoric and end up being pretty mainstream? I knew he was a bit barmy and egomaniacal, but I'm a bit worried now!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483
    edited February 2017

    I have to say that I do have concerns about the CIA leaking like a sieve. I get that they are worried that the normal routes are shut but it sets a very bad precedent.

    What firm evidence is there that this was a CIA, as opposed to White House leak ?
    As far as I can see, it could just as easily have been someone in the administration.
    (After all, it's not as though they aren't already fighting amongst themselves like rats in a sack.)
  • PlatoSaid said:

    That's the core view of Trumpers - expose it all and kill it - no wonder those who wield power/money hate it.

    It's a very dirty fight - becoming POTUS like Brexit, was just the start.
    But kill it and replace it with what?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Meanwhile the EU economic decline continues... Good thing we will no longer be chained to that corpse......

    https://qz.com/909088/for-the-first-time-in-a-long-time-every-eu-economy-is-growing-at-the-same-time/?utm_source=qzfb
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    RobD said:

    That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you. :smiley:
    The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.
  • HYUFD said:

    Copeland will be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour and Stoke Central should be a Labour hold with the LDs maybe taking third and not too far behind UKIP

    I'm curious though why May is visiting Copeland. This most cautious of PMs, who seems to like the old ways, will know that PMs almost never visit by-election scenes and she wont want to be seen with a visible loser.

    Perhaps feedback on the doorstep is that people are loving her approach in these unruly times? Is May becoming more popular than her party? I can't see any reason to visit unless it is that.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2017

    https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/831719693329264642

    Can all the PB sharp minds who were predicting a Trumpency would subside into a run of the mill, unremarkable administration reveal when that's going to kick in?
    Asking for a friend. In fact all my friends. And my family. And me.

    It's never going to. There is a very cosy and unhealthy accommodation between GOP statists and Dem statists in Washington. All the money, all the lobbying, all the power, all the control, all the opportunities for graft - they empower and feed off this 'deep state' establishment. And then from left field along comes a complete outsider and wins the damn presidency. That wasn't in the plan. Trump poses a massive direct threat to all their interests. Of course they'll play hardball. The likes of McCain just as much as the likes of Clinton.
    The thing is Trump can play hardball too. Maybe we will see Clinton getting posecuted for her crimes after all. Maybe we will see other deep staters being exposed, tried, imprisoned, shamed or otherwise brought low. At some point sooner or later, unless they can impeach him, Trump wil lgain the ascendancy. And I suspect he'll be merciless with his initial victims. Which may scare the others off. Graft and prison vs no graft and no prison is a relatively easy choice even for the most corrupt once they lose their mutual protection.
    Meanwhile Trump will be playing to the crowd and his electoral base will be cheering wildly from the sidelines.
    Patrick's prediction: Much blood and a Trump win. He's the President.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Sean_F said:

    The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.
    He's the only candidate who knows secret illegal ninja moves from the government! Gosh!
  • https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/831719693329264642

    Can all the PB sharp minds who were predicting a Trumpency would subside into a run of the mill, unremarkable administration reveal when that's going to kick in?
    Asking for a friend. In fact all my friends. And my family. And me.

    Must admit that I thought that Trump would be a wee bit calmer once in office.
    But hey, it's not like anyone has ever made a wrong prediction on here.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:

    What firm evidence is there that this was a CIA, as opposed to White House leak ?
    As far as I can see, it could just as easily have been someone in the administration.
    (After all, it's not as though they aren't already fighting amongst themselves like rats in a sack.)

    They should listen to this guy...

    @realDonaldTrump: It is terrible that @BarackObama did not appoint an independent counsel to investigate the national security leaks. No accountability.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,453

    That’s assuming Nuttall wins. If someone else does,,,,,, and on a low turnout a strong performance in a couple of wards could tip the balance ... it’s not quite so bad. Labour lost the apparently safe Ashfield in 1977, and it’s suggested (on Wikipedia) that the loss was due to assuming Ashfield was safe and concentrating on the apparently more marginal Grimsby. However Ashfield was won back in ’79 and both it and Grimsby have remained Labour ever since. although Grimsby’s remained a lot less safe.
    I had a bet with someone that Labour would hold Grimsby and lose Ashfield. At 27/1....

    Labour should hold Stoke, not comfortably because the majority will be slashed, but easily enough. Especially with Nuttall blasting away at his remaining credibility with heavy duty weaponry.

    And the BBC weather forecast (OK, it's 7 days out) reckons polling day will be dry. Labour will get enough of its not-happy-but-keep-the-other-buggers-out vote to the polling station.

    Copeland is a perfect storm for anti-Nuke Corbyn-led Labour. Tory by 1,000 - 1,500 votes I reckon. Delving into the guts of recent national polling suggests that. Add a bit for Labour's good candidate and the local NHS issues, take a bit off for Corbyn and the local nuclear employer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483
    Patrick said:

    It's never going to. There is a very cosy and unhealthy accommodation between GOP statists and Dem statists in Washington. All the money, all the lobbying, all the power, all the control, all the opportunities for graft - they empower and feed off this 'deep state' establishment. And then from left field along comes a complete outsider and wins the damn presidency. That wasn't in the plan. Trump poses a massive direct threat to all their interests. Of course they'll play hardball. The likes of McCain just as much as the likes of Clinton.
    The thing is Trump can play hardball too. Maybe we will see Clinton getting posecuted for her crimes after all. Maybe we will see other deep staters being exposed, tried, imprisoned, shamed or otherwise brought low. At some point sooner or later, unless they can impeach him, Trump wil lgain the ascendancy. And I suspect he'll be merciless with his initial victims. Which may scare the others off. Graft and prison vs no graft and no prison is a relatively easy choice even for the most corrupt once they lose their mutual protection.
    Meanwhile Trump will be playing to the crowd and his electoral base will be cheering wildly from the sidelines.
    Patrick's prediction: Much blood and a Trump win. He's the President.
    And you imagine Trump isn't a grifter himself ?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031

    I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.
    Not to mention his family.
  • Mr. F, not *all* the fishes in the sea.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031

    Thx. Just had a look. Highly curated news aggregator. ISIS, muslims, EU crap, UKIP great, Trump great, rapists let off justice seem to be today's main features.

    Still I would rather Banks spent his time on this than starting the English Democrats party or whatever.
    We don't need it, we've got the Daily Mail.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2017

    Mr. F, not *all* the fishes in the sea.

    Is that comment somehow related to large haddocks?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031
    HYUFD said:

    Copeland will be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour and Stoke Central should be a Labour hold with the LDs maybe taking third and not too far behind UKIP

    That sounds a fair guess (but who knows in these strange times).
  • Mr. Patrick, the enormo-haddock are loyal to me.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031
    rkrkrk said:

    You are completely missing the point. If trump as president wants detente with Russia that's fine. It's his foreign policy ans he won the election.

    But if as a private citizen he conspired with a foreign power to win an election by hacking his opponent in exchange for lifting sanctions then very, very obviously that's not okay.
    ... and illegal 'Lock Him Up'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,883

    I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.
    Sanders was really the anti Wall Street candidate and has passed the torch to Warren
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    rkrkrk said:

    You are completely missing the point. If trump as president wants detente with Russia that's fine. It's his foreign policy ans he won the election.

    But if as a private citizen he conspired with a foreign power to win an election by hacking his opponent in exchange for lifting sanctions then very, very obviously that's not okay.
    I'm really not, I spend hours a day watching this stuff and the agendas. Ignore my observations - if they don't feel right.

    I remain one of the few PBers who called out the polling/media/pundit class that led to Trump.

    I see no value in being socially acceptable - and wrong when it comes to the ballot box.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,058
    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm genuinely worried about it - the whole notion of democracy is being turned on its head. I can't be bothered with silly micro-spats in by-elections here. The US is experiencing a serious political crisis. I've continued to follow events and its very ugly.

    The leaking is just awful - no one wins by plotting against the winning team.

    How would you feel about this here?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqMKCOlueyY
    Comey set the precedent by plotting against Clinton who was heading the winning team at the time. So it is not true that no-one wins by plotting against the winning team. Trump did. Putin has.
  • Nigelb said:

    And you imagine Trump isn't a grifter himself ?
    Indeed I don't. I think he glories in the wrecking. I think when he says he intends to cream the establishment and put Joe Average first he really means it. Sure he'll fuck up along the way and make an arse of himself repeatedly, but I don't think corrupt advancement is what motivates him at all. I think what makes him truly interesting (or scary - take your pick) is that he said all these things as a candidate and now seems intent on delivering exactly what he said he would! That's not out of the politicis playbook. It scares the horses.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,290
    edited February 2017
    PlatoSaid said:


    Hillary/Obama gave 20% of US plutonium to Russians - and literally pallets of cash in a plane to Iran.

    It's insane to pretend that somehow Trump's attempt at détente is scary in comparison. Just for a minute stop being tribal and look at facts vs whatyouwanttobetrue

    "Hillary/Obama gave 20% of US plutonium to Russian"

    No, they didn't.

    Firstly, the deal involved a mining company holding uranium reserves, much of which is in that well known US location - Kazakhstan.

    Secondly, it is uranium ore, not processed/refined uranium - which is the nasty stuff.

    Thirdly, and most importantly, it was uranium, not plutonium as you state. The latter is the really nasty stuff, and is all man-made.

    Fourthly, the links with Clinton seem weak at best.

    It would be odd if the US did do a deal with Russia over Plutonium, given the US is short of certain isotopes for use in space (e.g. RTG's), and has just restarted production for that purpose.

    Russia has just withdrawn from a deal to destroy Pu stocks (the 'Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement').

    http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-uranium-russia-deal/

    Perhaps you should take your own advice: "stop being tribal and look at facts"
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844

    I'm curious though why May is visiting Copeland. This most cautious of PMs, who seems to like the old ways, will know that PMs almost never visit by-election scenes and she wont want to be seen with a visible loser.

    Perhaps feedback on the doorstep is that people are loving her approach in these unruly times? Is May becoming more popular than her party? I can't see any reason to visit unless it is that.
    I think that's almost certainly the case. She's made mistakes for sure, and hard to see she'll go down as one of the greats, but she's steering the ship without any major catastrophes so far. We should all remember how close we were to PM Leadsom or PM Bojo!

    The Tories are always pretty unpopular as a party - they rely simply on Labour being worse, or their leader being popular (not necessarily liked, but respected, a la Thatcher). At the moment both are in play.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    edited February 2017
    Scott_P said:
    There must be a recording of him saying it surely? It's not as if the interview was in 1989

    The quotes Alastair links to are the ones that were on his website, so could easily have been lifted from that. The BBC article was the same day as the quotes appeared in his site

    Edit: in fact so are the ones you have linked to. It's the same article
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031
    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm really not, I spend hours a day watching this stuff and the agendas. Ignore my observations - if they don't feel right.

    I remain one of the few PBers who called out the polling/media/pundit class that led to Trump.

    I see no value in being socially acceptable - and wrong when it comes to the ballot box.
    There is a difference between making a judgement on how political events are going to pan out and actually wanting them to pan out that way.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Patrick said:

    It's never going to. There is a very cosy and unhealthy accommodation between GOP statists and Dem statists in Washington. All the money, all the lobbying, all the power, all the control, all the opportunities for graft - they empower and feed off this 'deep state' establishment. And then from left field along comes a complete outsider and wins the damn presidency. That wasn't in the plan. Trump poses a massive direct threat to all their interests. Of course they'll play hardball. The likes of McCain just as much as the likes of Clinton.
    The thing is Trump can play hardball too. Maybe we will see Clinton getting posecuted for her crimes after all. Maybe we will see other deep staters being exposed, tried, imprisoned, shamed or otherwise brought low. At some point sooner or later, unless they can impeach him, Trump wil lgain the ascendancy. And I suspect he'll be merciless with his initial victims. Which may scare the others off. Graft and prison vs no graft and no prison is a relatively easy choice even for the most corrupt once they lose their mutual protection.
    Meanwhile Trump will be playing to the crowd and his electoral base will be cheering wildly from the sidelines.
    Patrick's prediction: Much blood and a Trump win. He's the President.
    Priebus was behind the anti Trump coup a month out from the election - he was given a serious job as a show of unity -he's blown it.

    If he's still got a job shortly, I'll be surprised
  • I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.
    You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    PlatoSaid said:



    I'm really not, I spend hours a day watching this stuff and the agendas. Ignore my observations - if they don't feel right.

    I remain one of the few PBers who called out the polling/media/pundit class that led to Trump.

    I see no value in being socially acceptable - and wrong when it comes to the ballot box.

    Yet you entirely missed the indefinite Syrian refugee ban :lol:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    edited February 2017
    Seeing as how Brexit and Trump are in lockstep (I think I made that word up-it's all the rage) and the Trump regime is falling apart does it follow that Brexit will also unwind?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    PlatoSaid said:

    Priebus was behind the anti Trump coup a month out from the election - he was given a serious job as a show of unity -he's blown it.

    If he's still got a job shortly, I'll be surprised
    Hmm, but if he sacks Priebus, he'll be declaring all out war on the GOP establishment wing. They would surely begin setting things in motion for an impeachment/removal to install Pence as POTUS instead. He still needs to rely on the traditional GOP to get through much of his domestic agenda.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    PlatoSaid said:

    Your "insights" mostly involved mindlessly retweeting and copy and pasting <articles from right wing news sites, most of which were dubious if not outright lies (which I suspect you knew). And stop trying to claim you "called" the election - a week before the vote you were saying you had no idea who would win.

    The fact that millions of people were duped by this nonsense is of course depressing and concerning, but it doesn't mean It isn't hogwash.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

    Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

    Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

    'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.
  • Patrick said:

    You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.
    Wall Street (and the GOP generally) hated Dodd-Frank. Bank shares have rocketed. Goldman Sachs is up by fully 25 per cent since Trump's inauguration.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Roger said:

    Seeing as how Brexit and Trump are in lockstep (I think I made that word up-it's all the rage) and the Trump regime is falling apart does it follow that Brexit will also unwind?

    No. Even if the two are outcomes flowing from the same sort of feeling they are still separate and the individual actions of trump is driving things.
  • Patrick said:

    You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.
    I don't think I did. Link please? Trump has ordered a review.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Seeing as how Brexit and Trump are in lockstep (I think I made that word up-it's all the rage) and the Trump regime is falling apart does it follow that Brexit will also unwind?

    Sorry lockstep is well known
  • Wall Street (and the GOP generally) hated Dodd-Frank. Bank shares have rocketed. Goldman Sachs is up by fully 25 per cent since Trump's inauguration.
    Precisely. Although Dodd-Frank is for review, unless I have missed something, not repeal.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Freggles said:

    Yet you entirely missed the indefinite Syrian refugee ban :lol:
    Are you still hallucinating? Its a 90 day pause to review immigration vetting from a a handful of countries named by Obama. I can't help you if you're convinced otherwise.
  • Wall Street (and the GOP generally) hated Dodd-Frank. Bank shares have rocketed. Goldman Sachs is up by fully 25 per cent since Trump's inauguration.

    The swamp has been drained :-D

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    "Hillary/Obama gave 20% of US plutonium to Russian"

    No, they didn't.

    Firstly, the deal involved a mining company holding uranium reserves, much of which is in that well known US location - Kazakhstan.

    Secondly, it is uranium ore, not processed/refined uranium - which is the nasty stuff.

    Thirdly, and most importantly, it was uranium, not plutonium as you state. The latter is the really nasty stuff, and is all man-made.

    Fourthly, the links with Clinton seem weak at best.

    It would be odd if the US did do a deal with Russia over Plutonium, given the US is short of certain isotopes for use in space (e.g. RTG's), and has just restarted production for that purpose.

    Russia has just withdrawn from a deal to destroy Pu stocks (the 'Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement').

    http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-uranium-russia-deal/

    Perhaps you should take your own advice: "stop being tribal and look at facts"
    Plato should "stop being tribal and look at facts".

    She'd need to be born again!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    edited February 2017
    The Hillsborough smears have moved the market, someone wants 2.5k on Labour at 1.73
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Jobabob said:

    'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.
    When, and how was that revealed?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.
    Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

    Standards old thing ... standards.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jobabob said:

    'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.
    Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031
    isam said:

    The Hillsborough smears have moved the market, someone wants 2.5k on Labour at 1.73

    Definition of 'smear'
    "damage the reputation of (someone) by false accusations; slander."
    I don't think that applies in this case.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    edited February 2017

    Definition of 'smear'
    "damage the reputation of (someone) by false accusations; slander."
    I don't think that applies in this case.
    The original smear was that he wasn't there at all
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    surbiton said:

    Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?
    I'd say she is more of a punchbag for weedy lefty drips
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,883

    I'm curious though why May is visiting Copeland. This most cautious of PMs, who seems to like the old ways, will know that PMs almost never visit by-election scenes and she wont want to be seen with a visible loser.

    Perhaps feedback on the doorstep is that people are loving her approach in these unruly times? Is May becoming more popular than her party? I can't see any reason to visit unless it is that.
    Blair went to Tory Uxbridge and Eddisbury when he had a big poll lead and May also has nothing to lose in Labour Copeland and her poll rating is higher than her party's as Blair's was then
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Roger said:

    Seeing as how Brexit and Trump are in lockstep (I think I made that word up-it's all the rage) and the Trump regime is falling apart does it follow that Brexit will also unwind?

    I don't think they are really. You're looking at one or two posters here and assuming that they represent a wider thought and belief process. I'm really not sure they do. There may be overlap in places but lockstep overplays your hand.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,628

    "Hillary/Obama gave 20% of US plutonium to Russian"

    No, they didn't.

    Firstly, the deal involved a mining company holding uranium reserves, much of which is in that well known US location - Kazakhstan.

    Secondly, it is uranium ore, not processed/refined uranium - which is the nasty stuff.

    Thirdly, and most importantly, it was uranium, not plutonium as you state. The latter is the really nasty stuff, and is all man-made.

    Fourthly, the links with Clinton seem weak at best.

    It would be odd if the US did do a deal with Russia over Plutonium, given the US is short of certain isotopes for use in space (e.g. RTG's), and has just restarted production for that purpose.

    Russia has just withdrawn from a deal to destroy Pu stocks (the 'Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement').

    http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-uranium-russia-deal/

    Perhaps you should take your own advice: "stop being tribal and look at facts"
    Thanks for the fact check.

    Sometimes you're fairly sure someone is talking rubbish but it's not an area you understand well and you can't be bothered to Google and disprove the falsities.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2017
    surbiton said:

    Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?
    Plato is a long term poster here, a former POTY and has attended many PB meets. That makes her more real IMHO, than a poster whose never been seen afaik and changes their PB handle more often than a Brexiteers changes their underpants.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    PlatoSaid said:

    Are you still hallucinating? Its a 90 day pause to review immigration vetting from a a handful of countries named by Obama. I can't help you if you're convinced otherwise.
    I posted verbatim from the EO and you went silent. Squirrel much?
  • Mr. Bob, embrace diversity of opinion.

    Miss Plato was closer to the mark regarding the US election than many others here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,883
    matt said:

    I don't think they are really. You're looking at one or two posters here and assuming that they represent a wider thought and belief process. I'm really not sure they do. There may be overlap in places but lockstep overplays your hand.
    They were both formed by concerns over immigration and globalisation and neither are being reversed any time soon
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    When, and how was that revealed?
    When the PlatoSaid account attacked BeverleyC for speculation and informed her "you have to back everything up by hard evidence before posting on PB", the penny dropped.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Flynn appears to have fibbed - and Trump wanted him to stay out of loyalty - but Bannon said Enough.

    Conway is being monstered in really ugly ways, she's got a young family to look after.

    The NYT reporter outed for calling the First Lady 'a hooker' is typical - nothing is too low nowadays. It's horrible to watch - the vile stuff about Barron who's only 10yr old is another

    Trump was told Conway had lied. He did nothing until that fact was made public. That is no-one's fault, but his own. He is either exceptionally weak or tolerant of mendacity.

    As for coverage. Er, yes. The Obama administration was called every name under the sun and was subject to a zero cooperation strategy for six years. The racism and abuse he and his young family were subjected to constantly was appalling. You never worried about that. The hypocrisy stinks to high heaven.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited February 2017

    Plato is a long term poster here, a former POTY and has attended many PB meets. That makes her more real IMHO, than a poster whose never been seen afaik and changes their PB handle more often than a Brexiteers change their underpants.
    Emphasis on the "former". She went a bit loopy during the referendum campaign and still hasn't recovered.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    edited February 2017
    Jobabob said:

    'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.
    What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    JackW said:

    Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

    Standards old thing ... standards.
    Next he'll be boasting about all the times he's spent at Auchentennach Castle :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,883

    Hmm, but if he sacks Priebus, he'll be declaring all out war on the GOP establishment wing. They would surely begin setting things in motion for an impeachment/removal to install Pence as POTUS instead. He still needs to rely on the traditional GOP to get through much of his domestic agenda.
    The GOP also needs Trump voters
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    (c) Pursuant to section 212(f) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f), I hereby proclaim that the entry of nationals of Syria as refugees is detrimental to the interests of the United States and thus suspend any such entry until such time as I have determined that sufficient changes have been made to the USRAP to ensure that admission of Syrian refugees is consistent with the national interest.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    JackW said:

    Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

    Standards old thing ... standards.
    When Sir Edmund Hillary first reached the summit of Mount Everest, Sir Paul Nuttall PhD was sat there on a camping chair having a cup of tea.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    On-topic, I think we will see Labour hold on in both seats. For Copeland, I just struggle to see the reason to vote for a governing party in an ultimately meaningless by-election, if you are not already a signed up conservative supporter. People generally want to hold their governments feet to the fire - not give them repeated endorsements throughout the term. There's no motivation to vote for the Tories here. Only chance is other parties eating enough Lab vote to give it to the Tories.

    For Stoke, the effect of the Labour candidate's bad tweeting habits are being massively blown out of proportion on here - they may be unpleasant but they won't sway votes, these things rarely do. Nuttall has shot himself in the foot several times now, and the LD's may do well but not enough to come through and win - they are having a bounceback but not exactly sweeping away all that stand before them.

    Finally, let's remember that the Labour vote share has actually held up well in by-elections where they weren't being squeezed. When people aren't choosing a PM like in a GE, Corbyn is irrelevant not a liability.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Freggles said:

    I posted verbatim from the EO and you went silent. Squirrel much?
    She will bring forward her lunch break. The Apologist-in-chief got caught red handed. She is well known to slightly tweak extreme right wing actions/words , knowing very few will bother to check.
  • isam said:

    There must be a recording of him saying it surely? It's not as if the interview was in 1989

    The quotes Alastair links to are the ones that were on his website, so could easily have been lifted from that. The BBC article was the same day as the quotes appeared in his site

    Edit: in fact so are the ones you have linked to. It's the same article
    It does make it rather awkward for Paul Nuttall though. He is most unlikely to have been unaware of these attributed quotes if they made it as far as a BBC news item (I accept that he might not have looked at his own website though it's a bit embarrassing for him to have to admit that).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    edited February 2017
    Roger said:

    What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?
    She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, while everyone else was congratulating themselves on how right they'd got it only to be shown to be wrong, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site
  • PlatoSaid said:

    The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

    When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

    It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled
    Sorry but this is complete hypocritical rubbish. Trump and his campaign set the whole tone for this by using leaks from within the establishment to destabilise Clinton and so help win the presidency. All that is happening is he is getting some of his own medicine.

    He caused this. He has to suffer the consequences.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Plato is a long term poster here, a former POTY and has attended many PB meets. That makes her more real IMHO, than a poster whose never been seen afaik and changes their PB handle more often than a Brexiteers changes their underpants.
    Thank you - it's very silly to allege I'm a bot.

    I just see desperation.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site
    She correctly called the last two major outcomes. I don't think she bets. You are also correct she is on the right side, the extreme right side!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    isam said:

    She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, while everyone else was congratulating themselves on how right they'd got it only to be shown to be wrong, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site
    Nonsense. A week before both elections she said she had no idea who would win.

    Pointing out that your argument is based on lies and hypocrisy is not bullying.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,628

    It does make it rather awkward for Paul Nuttall though. He is most unlikely to have been unaware of these attributed quotes if they made it as far as a BBC news item (I accept that he might not have looked at his own website though it's a bit embarrassing for him to have to admit that).
    The way it came out in the radio interview actually made me believe him...
    He so unnecessarily walked into denying he had close friends at Hillsborough and did look pretty surprised when he was told it came from his website.

    Plus who is to say who is a close friend from thirty years ago? He could have more easily defended a lie surely?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    surbiton said:

    She correctly called the last two major outcomes. I don't think she bets. You are also correct she is on the right side, the extreme right side!
    Predicted a Hillary victory at Potus 2016.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186
    edited February 2017
    Roger said:

    What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?
    How many of the last major political betting events have you called right, Rogerdamus? This is politicalbetting, after all, not politicalhandwringing.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jobabob said:

    When Sir Edmund Hillary first reached the summit of Mount Everest, Sir Paul Nuttall PhD was sat there on a camping chair having a cup of tea.
    Didn't Neil Armstrong say the exact same sentence ?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031
    HYUFD said:

    They were both formed by concerns over immigration and globalisation and neither are being reversed any time soon
    Yes, it will take at least two years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419
    edited February 2017
    Tories need to watch that NHS/social care doesn't sink them, Corbyn or not.
  • Mr. P, surprised by that Stoke graph. Not the red and purple lines but that the yellow one has flatlined (mildly surprised the blue one isn't a little higher, though they're focusing on Copeland).
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Jobabob said:

    When Sir Edmund Hillary first reached the summit of Mount Everest, Sir Paul Nuttall PhD was sat there on a camping chair having a cup of tea.
    Nuttal can hide behind glass and he doesn't do press ups, he pushes the Earth away :lol:
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,031
    isam said:

    The original smear was that he wasn't there at all
    You accept that he lied over losing close friends in the disaster?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    surbiton said:

    Didn't Neil Armstrong say the exact same sentence ?
    "It's one small step for man, one giant leap for Paul Nuttall"
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    surbiton said:

    Didn't Neil Armstrong say the exact same sentence ?
    When Neil Armstrong first set foot on the moon, Professor Paul Nuttall OBE was sat on a rock playing chess with his copilot.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    rkrkrk said:

    The way it came out in the radio interview actually made me believe him...
    He so unnecessarily walked into denying he had close friends at Hillsborough and did look pretty surprised when he was told it came from his website.

    Plus who is to say who is a close friend from thirty years ago? He could have more easily defended a lie surely?
    I thought the same, he seemed genuinely surprised at the quotes and denied the content was true/clarified the truth before being told they were from his website. I guess the haters must have realised he wasn't lying about actually being there, and moved on.
  • Jobabob said:

    For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

    If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Blue_rog said:

    Nuttal can hide behind glass and he doesn't do press ups, he pushes the Earth away :lol:
    Sir Paul Nuttall of Stoke on Trent doesn't sleep. He waits.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.
    I'm applauding the account!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    edited February 2017
    isam said:

    She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, while everyone else was congratulating themselves on how right they'd got it only to be shown to be wrong, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site
    Don't confuse cheer leading with insight. You cheer lead for your hero Enoch Powell though provide few examples of the insight you claim he showed.
  • Jobabob said:

    I'm applauding the account!
    No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    PlatoSaid said:

    Thank you - it's very silly to allege I'm a bot.

    I just see desperation.
    XX Plato, the only poster that equated alcohol with fish fingers. I still use it, although I now get the jumbo sized packs :grin:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is typical and worrying

    Paul Joseph Watson
    Anonymous intel agents are leaking unsubstantiated claims to the NY Times to make Trump look bad. Wow. This doesn't happen every other week.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220

    You accept that he lied over losing close friends in the disaster?
    Well he says he didn't lose close friends and doesnt accept the quote on the website was his, so I am not going to accuse him of lying, you knock yourself out
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,290

    No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.
    As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.
This discussion has been closed.