politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Centr

AlastairMeeks said:

I have to say that I do have concerns about the CIA leaking like a sieve. I get that they are worried that the normal routes are shut but it sets a very bad precedent.

What firm evidence is there that this was a CIA, as opposed to White House leak ?
As far as I can see, it could just as easily have been someone in the administration.
(After all, it's not as though they aren't already fighting amongst themselves like rats in a sack.)

PlatoSaid said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

US politics looks absolutely fecked. Maybe Trump is actually doing a service by unintentionally bringing the whole rotten system down.

That's the core view of Trumpers - expose it all and kill it - no wonder those who wield power/money hate it.

It's a very dirty fight - becoming POTUS like Brexit, was just the start.

But kill it and replace it with what?

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

not_on_fire said:

Struggling to find a reason not to pile on laying UKIP in Stoke

Why, what has Stoke resident, former professional football player, Hillsborough survivor and current Professor Dr Paul Nuttal PhD done today?

That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you.

The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/831719693329264642

Can all the PB sharp minds who were predicting a Trumpency would subside into a run of the mill, unremarkable administration reveal when that's going to kick in?
Asking for a friend. In fact all my friends. And my family. And me.

It's never going to. There is a very cosy and unhealthy accommodation between GOP statists and Dem statists in Washington. All the money, all the lobbying, all the power, all the control, all the opportunities for graft - they empower and feed off this 'deep state' establishment. And then from left field along comes a complete outsider and wins the damn presidency. That wasn't in the plan. Trump poses a massive direct threat to all their interests. Of course they'll play hardball. The likes of McCain just as much as the likes of Clinton.
The thing is Trump can play hardball too. Maybe we will see Clinton getting posecuted for her crimes after all. Maybe we will see other deep staters being exposed, tried, imprisoned, shamed or otherwise brought low. At some point sooner or later, unless they can impeach him, Trump wil lgain the ascendancy. And I suspect he'll be merciless with his initial victims. Which may scare the others off. Graft and prison vs no graft and no prison is a relatively easy choice even for the most corrupt once they lose their mutual protection.
Meanwhile Trump will be playing to the crowd and his electoral base will be cheering wildly from the sidelines.
Patrick's prediction: Much blood and a Trump win. He's the President.

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/831719693329264642

Can all the PB sharp minds who were predicting a Trumpency would subside into a run of the mill, unremarkable administration reveal when that's going to kick in?
Asking for a friend. In fact all my friends. And my family. And me.

Must admit that I thought that Trump would be a wee bit calmer once in office.
But hey, it's not like anyone has ever made a wrong prediction on here.

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

On topic - defeat for Labour in Copeland would be a catastrophe, but there may be a way back from it. Labour has bounced back against the Tories in the past and could do so again. Defeat in Stoke would be existential. Losing to a candidate as compromised and as poor as Nuttall would surely sound a death knell for the party.

That’s assuming Nuttall wins. If someone else does,,,,,, and on a low turnout a strong performance in a couple of wards could tip the balance ... it’s not quite so bad. Labour lost the apparently safe Ashfield in 1977, and it’s suggested (on Wikipedia) that the loss was due to assuming Ashfield was safe and concentrating on the apparently more marginal Grimsby. However Ashfield was won back in ’79 and both it and Grimsby have remained Labour ever since. although Grimsby’s remained a lot less safe.

I had a bet with someone that Labour would hold Grimsby and lose Ashfield. At 27/1....

Labour should hold Stoke, not comfortably because the majority will be slashed, but easily enough. Especially with Nuttall blasting away at his remaining credibility with heavy duty weaponry.

And the BBC weather forecast (OK, it's 7 days out) reckons polling day will be dry. Labour will get enough of its not-happy-but-keep-the-other-buggers-out vote to the polling station.

Copeland is a perfect storm for anti-Nuke Corbyn-led Labour. Tory by 1,000 - 1,500 votes I reckon. Delving into the guts of recent national polling suggests that. Add a bit for Labour's good candidate and the local NHS issues, take a bit off for Corbyn and the local nuclear employer.

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

Not to mention his family.

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/831650143548096512

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, not *all* the fishes in the sea.

Is that comment somehow related to large haddocks?

Mr. Patrick, the enormo-haddock are loyal to me.

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

Sanders was really the anti Wall Street candidate and has passed the torch to Warren

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/831650143548096512

Demand justice for the Paul Nuttall one!
http://news.sky.com/story/families-attack-ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-over-hillsborough-claims-10767810

Nigelb said:

Patrick said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/831719693329264642

Can all the PB sharp minds who were predicting a Trumpency would subside into a run of the mill, unremarkable administration reveal when that's going to kick in?
Asking for a friend. In fact all my friends. And my family. And me.

It's never going to. There is a very cosy and unhealthy accommodation between GOP statists and Dem statists in Washington. All the money, all the lobbying, all the power, all the control, all the opportunities for graft - they empower and feed off this 'deep state' establishment. And then from left field along comes a complete outsider and wins the damn presidency. That wasn't in the plan. Trump poses a massive direct threat to all their interests. Of course they'll play hardball. The likes of McCain just as much as the likes of Clinton.
The thing is Trump can play hardball too. Maybe we will see Clinton getting posecuted for her crimes after all. Maybe we will see other deep staters being exposed, tried, imprisoned, shamed or otherwise brought low. At some point sooner or later, unless they can impeach him, Trump wil lgain the ascendancy. And I suspect he'll be merciless with his initial victims. Which may scare the others off. Graft and prison vs no graft and no prison is a relatively easy choice even for the most corrupt once they lose their mutual protection.
Meanwhile Trump will be playing to the crowd and his electoral base will be cheering wildly from the sidelines.
Patrick's prediction: Much blood and a Trump win. He's the President.

And you imagine Trump isn't a grifter himself ?

Indeed I don't. I think he glories in the wrecking. I think when he says he intends to cream the establishment and put Joe Average first he really means it. Sure he'll fuck up along the way and make an arse of himself repeatedly, but I don't think corrupt advancement is what motivates him at all. I think what makes him truly interesting (or scary - take your pick) is that he said all these things as a candidate and now seems intent on delivering exactly what he said he would! That's not out of the politicis playbook. It scares the horses.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Copeland will be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour and Stoke Central should be a Labour hold with the LDs maybe taking third and not too far behind UKIP

I'm curious though why May is visiting Copeland. This most cautious of PMs, who seems to like the old ways, will know that PMs almost never visit by-election scenes and she wont want to be seen with a visible loser.

Perhaps feedback on the doorstep is that people are loving her approach in these unruly times? Is May becoming more popular than her party? I can't see any reason to visit unless it is that.

I think that's almost certainly the case. She's made mistakes for sure, and hard to see she'll go down as one of the greats, but she's steering the ship without any major catastrophes so far. We should all remember how close we were to PM Leadsom or PM Bojo!

The Tories are always pretty unpopular as a party - they rely simply on Labour being worse, or their leader being popular (not necessarily liked, but respected, a la Thatcher). At the moment both are in play.

PlatoSaid said:

rkrkrk said:

PlatoSaid said:

rkrkrk said:

Pong said:

not_on_fire said:

PlatoSaid said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I have to say that I do have concerns about the CIA leaking like a sieve. I get that they are worried that the normal routes are shut but it sets a very bad precedent.

A bad precedent or bad president

More seriously, it's a good point. I can't get worked up over Donald Trump being treated like this, but supposing it was somebody equally bad but that they happened to like? The further the military and security services stay from politics, the better.

The leaking is just awful - no one wins by plotting against the winning team.

How would you feel about this here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqMKCOlueyY

So you're worried about democracy now? Interesting. Given your consistent support for a candidate who has demonstrably lied in public on multiple occasions and scapegoated minorities for his country's problems, I'm surprised you haven't expressed your concerns earlier

What you say is true, but Plato also isn't wrong about this.

US politics is dysfunctional.

Trump needs to do a deal with the defense establishment to diffuse this. That probably means U-turning on NATO.

But if it turns out that Trump and Putin did conspire together to undermine Hilary in exchange for lifting sanctions... What are the intelligence community supposed to do? Just cover it up for the acting president?

Hillary/Obama gave 20% of US plutonium to Russians - and literally pallets of cash in a plane to Iran.

It's insane to pretend that somehow Trump's attempt at détente is scary in comparison. Just for a minute stop being tribal and look at facts vs whatyouwanttobetrue

You are completely missing the point. If trump as president wants detente with Russia that's fine. It's his foreign policy ans he won the election.

But if as a private citizen he conspired with a foreign power to win an election by hacking his opponent in exchange for lifting sanctions then very, very obviously that's not okay.

I'm really not, I spend hours a day watching this stuff and the agendas. Ignore my observations - if they don't feel right.

I remain one of the few PBers who called out the polling/media/pundit class that led to Trump.

I see no value in being socially acceptable - and wrong when it comes to the ballot box.

There is a difference between making a judgement on how political events are going to pan out and actually wanting them to pan out that way.

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

Seeing as how Brexit and Trump are in lockstep (I think I made that word up-it's all the rage) and the Trump regime is falling apart does it follow that Brexit will also unwind?

PlatoSaid said:

rkrkrk said:

PlatoSaid said:

rkrkrk said:

Pong said:

not_on_fire said:

PlatoSaid said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I have to say that I do have concerns about the CIA leaking like a sieve. I get that they are worried that the normal routes are shut but it sets a very bad precedent.

A bad precedent or bad president

More seriously, it's a good point. I can't get worked up over Donald Trump being treated like this, but supposing it was somebody equally bad but that they happened to like? The further the military and security services stay from politics, the better.

I'm genuinely worried about it - the whole notion of democracy is being turned on its head. I can't be bothered with silly micro-spats in by-elections here. The US is experiencing a serious political crisis. I've continued to follow events and its very ugly.

The leaking is just awful - no one wins by plotting against the winning team.

How would you feel about this here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqMKCOlueyY

So you're worried about democracy now? Interesting. Given your consistent support for a candidate who has demonstrably lied in public on multiple occasions and scapegoated minorities for his country's problems, I'm surprised you haven't expressed your concerns earlier

What you say is true, but Plato also isn't wrong about this.

US politics is dysfunctional.

Trump needs to do a deal with the defense establishment to diffuse this. That probably means U-turning on NATO.

But if it turns out that Trump and Putin did conspire together to undermine Hilary in exchange for lifting sanctions... What are the intelligence community supposed to do? Just cover it up for the acting president?

Hillary/Obama gave 20% of US plutonium to Russians - and literally pallets of cash in a plane to Iran.

I'm really not, I spend hours a day watching this stuff and the agendas. Ignore my observations - if they don't feel right.

I remain one of the few PBers who called out the polling/media/pundit class that led to Trump.

I see no value in being socially acceptable - and wrong when it comes to the ballot box.

Your "insights" mostly involved mindlessly retweeting and copy and pasting <articles from right wing news sites, most of which were dubious if not outright lies (which I suspect you knew). And stop trying to claim you "called" the election - a week before the vote you were saying you had no idea who would win.

The fact that millions of people were duped by this nonsense is of course depressing and concerning, but it doesn't mean It isn't hogwash.

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

Wall Street (and the GOP generally) hated Dodd-Frank. Bank shares have rocketed. Goldman Sachs is up by fully 25 per cent since Trump's inauguration.

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

I don't think I did. Link please? Trump has ordered a review.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

Wall Street (and the GOP generally) hated Dodd-Frank. Bank shares have rocketed. Goldman Sachs is up by fully 25 per cent since Trump's inauguration.

Precisely. Although Dodd-Frank is for review, unless I have missed something, not repeal.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Patrick said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Blue_rog said:

I think that the whole US establishment are reeling after the Trump victory. This includes Democrats, Republicans, CIA, FBI and other state institutions, and the lobbying/media. The cosy club that they've existed within has been thrown into turmoil and they don't know how to react.

I don't know if Trump will be a good or bad President but the US political establishment will have a very uncomfortable 4 years and if Trump is anywhere near successful, it could be 8 years!

I just hope that some of the deep seated corruption is rooted out and removed and some of the pork barrel politics is exposed for what it is.

Deep seated corruption and pork barrel politics is just begining. The US has copied Russias kleptocracy with Trump.

I see no evidence that Trump will do this rooting out. We were promised swamp draining and then he puts half of Goldman Sachs into his Cabinet. Yeh right - Wall Street is really gonna get it in the neck.

You missed his announcement of the death of Dodd-Frank obviously. The marriage of Washington and Wall Street is headed for divorce.

Wall Street (and the GOP generally) hated Dodd-Frank. Bank shares have rocketed. Goldman Sachs is up by fully 25 per cent since Trump's inauguration.

The swamp has been drained :-D

The Hillsborough smears have moved the market, someone wants 2.5k on Labour at 1.73

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

not_on_fire said:

Struggling to find a reason not to pile on laying UKIP in Stoke

Why, what has Stoke resident, former professional football player, Hillsborough survivor and current Professor Dr Paul Nuttal PhD done today?

That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you.

The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.

Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

Standards old thing ... standards.

isam said:

The Hillsborough smears have moved the market, someone wants 2.5k on Labour at 1.73

Definition of 'smear'
"damage the reputation of (someone) by false accusations; slander."
I don't think that applies in this case.

surbiton said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?

I'd say she is more of a punchbag for weedy lefty drips

Roger said:

Seeing as how Brexit and Trump are in lockstep (I think I made that word up-it's all the rage) and the Trump regime is falling apart does it follow that Brexit will also unwind?

I don't think they are really. You're looking at one or two posters here and assuming that they represent a wider thought and belief process. I'm really not sure they do. There may be overlap in places but lockstep overplays your hand.

surbiton said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?

Plato is a long term poster here, a former POTY and has attended many PB meets. That makes her more real IMHO, than a poster whose never been seen afaik and changes their PB handle more often than a Brexiteers changes their underpants.

Mr. Bob, embrace diversity of opinion.

Miss Plato was closer to the mark regarding the US election than many others here.

not_on_fire said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

When, and how was that revealed?

When the PlatoSaid account attacked BeverleyC for speculation and informed her "you have to back everything up by hard evidence before posting on PB", the penny dropped.

SimonStClare said:

surbiton said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

Is "PlatoSaid" a person ?

Plato is a long term poster here, a former POTY and has attended many PB meets. That makes her more real IMHO, than a poster whose never been seen afaik and changes their PB handle more often than a Brexiteers change their underpants.

Emphasis on the "former". She went a bit loopy during the referendum campaign and still hasn't recovered.

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

not_on_fire said:

Struggling to find a reason not to pile on laying UKIP in Stoke

Why, what has Stoke resident, former professional football player, Hillsborough survivor and current Professor Dr Paul Nuttal PhD done today?

That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you.

The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.

Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

Standards old thing ... standards.

Next he'll be boasting about all the times he's spent at Auchentennach Castle

(c) Pursuant to section 212(f) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f), I hereby proclaim that the entry of nationals of Syria as refugees is detrimental to the interests of the United States and thus suspend any such entry until such time as I have determined that sufficient changes have been made to the USRAP to ensure that admission of Syrian refugees is consistent with the national interest.

On-topic, I think we will see Labour hold on in both seats. For Copeland, I just struggle to see the reason to vote for a governing party in an ultimately meaningless by-election, if you are not already a signed up conservative supporter. People generally want to hold their governments feet to the fire - not give them repeated endorsements throughout the term. There's no motivation to vote for the Tories here. Only chance is other parties eating enough Lab vote to give it to the Tories.

For Stoke, the effect of the Labour candidate's bad tweeting habits are being massively blown out of proportion on here - they may be unpleasant but they won't sway votes, these things rarely do. Nuttall has shot himself in the foot several times now, and the LD's may do well but not enough to come through and win - they are having a bounceback but not exactly sweeping away all that stand before them.

Finally, let's remember that the Labour vote share has actually held up well in by-elections where they weren't being squeezed. When people aren't choosing a PM like in a GE, Corbyn is irrelevant not a liability.

isam said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/831650143548096512

There must be a recording of him saying it surely? It's not as if the interview was in 1989

The quotes Alastair links to are the ones that were on his website, so could easily have been lifted from that. The BBC article was the same day as the quotes appeared in his site

Edit: in fact so are the ones you have linked to. It's the same article

It does make it rather awkward for Paul Nuttall though. He is most unlikely to have been unaware of these attributed quotes if they made it as far as a BBC news item (I accept that he might not have looked at his own website though it's a bit embarrassing for him to have to admit that).

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

Sorry but this is complete hypocritical rubbish. Trump and his campaign set the whole tone for this by using leaks from within the establishment to destabilise Clinton and so help win the presidency. All that is happening is he is getting some of his own medicine.

He caused this. He has to suffer the consequences.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/831792020658208768

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

surbiton said:

isam said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site

She correctly called the last two major outcomes. I don't think she bets. You are also correct she is on the right side, the extreme right side!

Predicted a Hillary victory at Potus 2016.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/831792020658208768

Tories need to watch that NHS/social care doesn't sink them, Corbyn or not.

Jobabob said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

not_on_fire said:

Struggling to find a reason not to pile on laying UKIP in Stoke

Why, what has Stoke resident, former professional football player, Hillsborough survivor and current Professor Dr Paul Nuttal PhD done today?

That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you.

The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.

Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

Standards old thing ... standards.

When Sir Edmund Hillary first reached the summit of Mount Everest, Sir Paul Nuttall PhD was sat there on a camping chair having a cup of tea.

Nuttal can hide behind glass and he doesn't do press ups, he pushes the Earth away

surbiton said:

Jobabob said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

not_on_fire said:

Struggling to find a reason not to pile on laying UKIP in Stoke

Why, what has Stoke resident, former professional football player, Hillsborough survivor and current Professor Dr Paul Nuttal PhD done today?

That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you.

The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.

Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

Standards old thing ... standards.

When Sir Edmund Hillary first reached the summit of Mount Everest, Sir Paul Nuttall PhD was sat there on a camping chair having a cup of tea.

Didn't Neil Armstrong say the exact same sentence ?

"It's one small step for man, one giant leap for Paul Nuttall"

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jpublik/status/831650143548096512

There must be a recording of him saying it surely? It's not as if the interview was in 1989

The quotes Alastair links to are the ones that were on his website, so could easily have been lifted from that. The BBC article was the same day as the quotes appeared in his site

Edit: in fact so are the ones you have linked to. It's the same article

It does make it rather awkward for Paul Nuttall though. He is most unlikely to have been unaware of these attributed quotes if they made it as far as a BBC news item (I accept that he might not have looked at his own website though it's a bit embarrassing for him to have to admit that).

The way it came out in the radio interview actually made me believe him...
He so unnecessarily walked into denying he had close friends at Hillsborough and did look pretty surprised when he was told it came from his website.

Plus who is to say who is a close friend from thirty years ago? He could have more easily defended a lie surely?

I thought the same, he seemed genuinely surprised at the quotes and denied the content was true/clarified the truth before being told they were from his website. I guess the haters must have realised he wasn't lying about actually being there, and moved on.

Blue_rog said:

Jobabob said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

not_on_fire said:

Struggling to find a reason not to pile on laying UKIP in Stoke

Why, what has Stoke resident, former professional football player, Hillsborough survivor and current Professor Dr Paul Nuttal PhD done today?

That's Professor Lord Nuttal DSO (Bar) to you.

The full title is His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC, MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.

Really Sean, how could you forget that Nuttal was invested as a Knight of the Garter along with Elvis in that most moving ceremony next to the B52 bomber and London red bus on the moon last Tuesday week ....

Standards old thing ... standards.

When Sir Edmund Hillary first reached the summit of Mount Everest, Sir Paul Nuttall PhD was sat there on a camping chair having a cup of tea.

Nuttal can hide behind glass and he doesn't do press ups, he pushes the Earth away

Sir Paul Nuttall of Stoke on Trent doesn't sleep. He waits.

isam said:

Roger said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

I am not sure what is wrong with Trump staff having contact with Russian officials during the election campaign. I have little doubt that UK embassy and FO staff will have been working hard to get to know them too and been in regular contact trying to ascertain what their policy positions were evolving into and seeking to guide them in a way favourable to us.

What I find odd is the lies that were told about there being no such contacts, lies that according to the NYT article the White House is still standing by. This puts what might have been completely proper discussions into a different context, especially when the Russians stand accused of interfering in the election process. To say that the Trump administration was not handling this well would be an understatement. Their lack of political and public life experience means they are making mistakes that are going to cause them problems.

The NYT isn't exactly impartial either - the agendas of most outlets are plain as day.

When members of your own Transition team inc Obama legacy - are spying/selectively leaking your phone calls to discredit you?? And leftist press creating sensational headlines?

It's abominable and sinister Deep State. If we discovered Mi5 was doing this - we'd be appalled

The leftist press!! In the US!!! Sensational headlines. Can you believe it? Democracy is in peril. Such scrutiny should not be allowed.

Obviously, though, it was absolutely fine for the head of the FBI to scupper Hillary Clinton just a few weeks before the presidential election. And as for voter suppression. That's not a problem at all.

Here's a strange notion: what if Trump has taken note of the warnings about Flynn given to him by the DoJ, confidentially and unleaked. weeks ago?

'PlatoSaid' is a spoof poster - this was revealed last week. Best to laugh along or ignore.

What.... the poster who claimed to have watched '"literally hundreds of hours of Jeremy Kyle". All that insight into the complex workings of a Trump voter... A SPOOF?

She was on the right side of the argument in the last two major political betting events, while everyone else was congratulating themselves on how right they'd got it only to be shown to be wrong, and is being bullied/cyber stalked by people who were in the wrong side of both and have never contributed anything useful to the site

Don't confuse cheer leading with insight. You cheer lead for your hero Enoch Powell though provide few examples of the insight you claim he showed.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/831793349514424321

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

Jobabob said:

For the record 'PlatoSaid' predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win at Potus 2016. And nobody is accusing the account of being a bot. The user(s) is/are extremely skilled at extreme satire. Hats off!

If she upsets you so much, why not take your own advice and ignore.

I'm applauding the account!

No, you are attempting to close down any debate on Trump that does not fit your narrative.

As I showed below, Plato's 'facts' are often wrong. If 'closing down the debate' means correcting falsehoods, then perhaps we should have more debates closed down.