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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a progressive alliance in Stoke Central might be doomed

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    dr_spyn said:
    I'm disliking the current implications we get that you're not supposed to ask questions or speculate because it's all fake news as politician x says it's fake. Obviously there's false stuff out there but the blowback seems to be taken advantage by politicians to suggest no media should be listened to, as either it's fake or is duped by the fake.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    SeanT said:

    Is this old news of an old poll?

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-democrats-poll-234778


    American voters support Trump's "Muslim ban" by a whopping 54% over 38%

    And many eu nation supporters by majority too, apparently.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    dr_spyn said:
    LOL.

    I was about to say in response the the question on below that Corbyn wont go before Labour are put to the sword at a General Election, and maybe not even then unless he is defenestrated.

    All by-election losses will be waved away as unfortunate anomalies due to "fake news" from a "right-wing press", which to him probably includes The Morning Star! All will be seen as a driver for "One more push Comrades" and that the false consciousness of voters must be overcome by offering an even more left-wing choice of policies, which will presumably bring about rapture, and a Labour landslide.

    I fear Labour might require a jacket with the fasteners at the back come 2020 ;)
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Is this old news of an old poll?

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-democrats-poll-234778


    American voters support Trump's "Muslim ban" by a whopping 54% over 38%

    And many eu nation supporters by majority too, apparently.
    Yep.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration#
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Patrick said:

    Corbyn just confirmed on BBC breakfast TV that he is absolutely going nowhere and will lead Labour through the 2020GE. :-)

    Huzzah!
  • Mr. T, still no sign of a burqa ban in the UK.

    Incidentally, for those of you who enjoyed MTV's New Year advice to white guys, Netflix will soon be airing Dear White People.

    It may have a worse like/dislike ratio (trailer on Youtube) than the first Ghostbusters remake trailer.
  • .

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?

    You don't trust the people. But that's the establishment for you.

    Whether or not someone feels the people would return the same result -which I do - it is not absurd to ask where it would end? In all honesty it might be a good idea if we had referendums with minimum thresholds as in some countries or a rule about no repeats too soon, but we don't, so people are free to press ahead even if a vote was 50% plus one vote and people change their minds and yes, free to try to ask the people over and over again.

    I struggle to see why the people should not be given the opportunity to approve the Brexit deal the government concludes. Isn't Brexit supposed to be about taking back control?

    You said we didn't need a referendum because we have a representative democracy. That Representative Democracy voted by around 80% to leave last night. Parliament is in control, that is what BrExit was about.

    As much as some of us may regret it, referendums are now part of the landscape.

  • So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge
  • Mr. T, I'll believe it when I see it. I can't see (beyond UKIP) which party is going to propose it. Labour won't want to lose votes, the Conservatives won't want to be seen as nasty.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?

    You don't trust the people. But that's the establishment for you.

    Whether or not someone feels the people would return the same result -which I do - it is not absurd to ask where it would end? In all honesty it might be a good idea if we had referendums with minimum thresholds as in some countries or a rule about no repeats too soon, but we don't, so people are free to press ahead even if a vote was 50% plus one vote and people change their minds and yes, free to try to ask the people over and over again.

    I struggle to see why the people should not be given the opportunity to approve the Brexit deal the government concludes. Isn't Brexit supposed to be about taking back control?

    They can do that quite easily at the next general election. If they think the deal was too hard and they want another referendum they can vote LD and if they think it too soft they can vote UKIP. We only had a referendum on the EU in the first place because it was a Tory manifesto commitment and the Tories won a majority at the last general election

    If the deal has been done by the time of the next GE it will be too late.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. T, still no sign of a burqa ban in the UK.

    Incidentally, for those of you who enjoyed MTV's New Year advice to white guys, Netflix will soon be airing Dear White People.

    It may have a worse like/dislike ratio (trailer on Youtube) than the first Ghostbusters remake trailer.

    I mentioned it a bit earlier - lazy stuff. Netflix has made a mistake here on several levels. I remain baffled by commercial concerns getting political like this - it's guaranteed to piss off 50% off current/potential customers in exchange for chip paper virtue signalling.

    And this sort of routine deleting of opinion just undermines trust more and more

    BadNews Kelly Leak1 hour ago
    Some on had a comment saying "Thank You Netflix for getting Trump elected again in 2020" with over 1,600 up votes just got deleted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Patrick said:

    Corbyn just confirmed on BBC breakfast TV that he is absolutely going nowhere and will lead Labour through the 2020GE. :-)

    Depending on Copeland and stoke it won't be up to him (I think he'll be fine), but I'd class that in the same vein as Cameron and others saying he wouldn't resign as pm - everyone knew it wasn't true, but all played the game of pretending otherwise. And corbyn knows if things don't pick up the men in grey suits will come, and for the party he will stand down.
    Why? 170 MPs have already voted against him but he renewed his mandate with the members last September. As long as retains membership support the men in grey suits can say what they want but under Labour leadership rules Corbyn will lead Labour into the next general election
    I was anticipating the men in grey suits would not make a move again until it seems the members themselves are turning in him - and I struggke to see how some more won't break if Copeland and stoke are lost. Plus anecdotally many formally enthusiastic corbynustas seem less keen.
    Yet even post Brexit and low Labour poll ratings members backed Corbyn over the Europhile more centrist Owen Smith by more than 60%
    They did. It was not the right time to move, clearly. But is it true now? In 6 months? I don't know, but unless I'm one of many wrong about labours prospects, how can the membership continue to support a leader taking them to oblivion? What would it take for him to realise he needs to handover? I'm not sure, but I do believe corbyn cares about the party, and despite his stubbornness will have a point he is made to realise he must go.
    Unless polling comes out showing the members moving against him Corbyn will stay
  • Morning all.

    A pact between the ‘progressive’ ? LOL, Corbyn can’t even keep his front bench together.
  • Mr. Observer, maybe. We've had a lot (one every other year from 2010-16) recently but two were on clear manifesto issues (independence for Scotland, leaving the EU), and the other was a Coalition mish-mash.

    That, and Cameron's career suicide, may mean we don't have another for a little while (a potential second Scottish vote is the only one plausible, I think).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge

    Do you want £20 at 5-1 ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    It doesn't matter what the voting system is. For every two lefties there are three right-wing voters. That is what Blair understood and mot Labour activists don't want to.

    Actually most polls show left and right pretty evenly divided but given the choice between a right-wing or leftwing party the centre will more often than not choose the right-wing one
    They probably tend to pick the more competent looking one if they are less fussed about ideology, recently the left has had a problem looking competent, when at the end of the 90's the Tories looked incompetent, the centre ground deserted them and they got kicked out.
    Blair was more centre than left
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216

    So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge

    Don't think he can now, even if he wanted ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mr. T, still no sign of a burqa ban in the UK.

    Incidentally, for those of you who enjoyed MTV's New Year advice to white guys, Netflix will soon be airing Dear White People.

    It may have a worse like/dislike ratio (trailer on Youtube) than the first Ghostbusters remake trailer.

    I mentioned it a bit earlier - lazy stuff. Netflix has made a mistake here on several levels. I remain baffled by commercial concerns getting political like this - it's guaranteed to piss off 50% off current/potential customers in exchange for chip paper virtue signalling.

    And this sort of routine deleting of opinion just undermines trust more and more

    BadNews Kelly Leak1 hour ago
    Some on had a comment saying "Thank You Netflix for getting Trump elected again in 2020" with over 1,600 up votes just got deleted.
    Don't like it; don't watch it.
    Who are these people ? Social injustice warriors ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    Morning all.

    A pact between the ‘progressive’ ? LOL, Corbyn can’t even keep his front bench together.

    Neither the hard left nor the machine politicians of the soft left can reasonably be described as progressive, in any positive sense of the word. There are some progressive people within Labour, mostly who joined a socialist party to advocate liberal principals, but they are the ones who now find themselves stranded in a very barren environment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge

    Do you want £20 at 5-1 ?
    Would that pay if Gorsuch withdrew himself or didn't win a vote in the full Senate?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Leave won, EU lost - get over it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Pulpstar said:

    So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge

    Do you want £20 at 5-1 ?
    Would that pay if Gorsuch withdrew himself or didn't win a vote in the full Senate?
    If Trump withdraws the nomination, as per your request.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge

    This is the best ever Trump story in an sparkling series. It just exposes the president for what he is – a thick piece of mince. He has been completely outmanoeuvred.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?

    You don't trust the people. But that's the establishment for you.

    Whether or not someone feels the people would return the same result -which I do - it is not absurd to ask where it would end? In all honesty it might be a good idea if we had referendums with minimum thresholds as in some countries or a rule about no repeats too soon, but we don't, so people are free to press ahead even if a vote was 50% plus one vote and people change their minds and yes, free to try to ask the people over and over again.

    I struggle to see why the people should not be given the opportunity to approve the Brexit deal the government concludes. Isn't Brexit supposed to be about taking back control?

    They can do that quite easily at the next general election. If they think the deal was too hard and they want another referendum they can vote LD and if they think it too soft they can vote UKIP. We only had a referendum on the EU in the first place because it was a Tory manifesto commitment and the Tories won a majority at the last general election

    If the deal has been done by the time of the next GE it will be too late.

    Not if the LDs won a general election on a platform of a referendum to rejoin the Single Market and restore unfettered free movement which the EU would happily accept
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.
  • Mr. B, generally, I agree.

    One of the reasons I'm not getting Mass Effect: Andromeda is that Manveer Heir, one of the people working on it, has a range of interesting tweets about white people.

    I think it's legitimate to be pissed off about double standards when it comes to racism and equality, however. Similarly, the title of the Women and Equalities Committee is simultaneously ironically hilarious and horrendous.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.

    I doubt you find any judge who is a fan of presidential abuse about judges.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So the odds of Trump withdrawing Gorsuch's nomination?

    Supreme court nominee Neil Gorsuch calls Trump judge attacks 'demoralizing'

    Spokesman confirms Neil Gorsuch called president’s attack on federal judge James Robart ‘demoralizing’ in private meeting with senator

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/08/neil-gorsuch-donald-trump-tweet-federal-judge

    Do you want £20 at 5-1 ?
    Would that pay if Gorsuch withdrew himself or didn't win a vote in the full Senate?
    If Trump withdraws the nomination, as per your request.
    I'll have to decline your generous offer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Hmm,

    I'm in a very distant (left wing/abolish it I guess) minority on the House of Lords within a Lib Dem facebook thread...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I'm mystified - why would Trump object to Gorsuch now? He's simply showing a bit of 'I'm My Own Man' ankle.
  • Sounds like Boris will never be POTUS.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited February 2017
    If Len says he would like a new Labour leadership election, then there will be one. And if he backs someone different to Corbyn, it's game over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Now I'm being assaulted from the right on a Channel 4 thread on "direction of the EU". I've pointed out France, Germany, Netherlands are all likely to elect quite pro-EU gov'ts...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    edited February 2017
    Fake laird.

    'Academic touted as Trump’s EU envoy embellished autobiography

    Mr Malloch also wrote that he was “made a laird by Lord Lyon of Scotland and given a personal coat of arms with a fancy Latin inscription”.

    However, the Clerk and Keeper of the Records at the court of the Lord Lyon said: “The Lord Lyon does not, nor could he, create a person a laird . . . It would certainly be incorrect [for Mr Malloch] to say that ‘he was made a laird by the Lord Lyon King of Arms’.” Mr Malloch told the FT that he had a scroll showing his position as laird.'

    http://tinyurl.com/jhejpk5

    He has a scroll!
  • Senator Bob Casey
    "feels it is unethical and inappropriate for the president to lash out at a private company for refusing to enrich his family".
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38912247
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    edited February 2017
    #Drowinginthecentre
  • Mr. Pulpstar, agree with those predictions although anti-EU parties are also likely to do well (and could top the poll in the Netherlands).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited February 2017

    If Len says he would like a new Labour leadership election, then there will be one. And if he backs someone different to Corbyn, it's game over.

    Not unless the members change their mind it won't. The unions now have no votes in the leadership election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Mr. Pulpstar, agree with those predictions although anti-EU parties are also likely to do well (and could top the poll in the Netherlands).

    Yes. I've said this on the thread, but the pro-EU ones will do better.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Patrick said:

    Corbyn just confirmed on BBC breakfast TV that he is absolutely going nowhere and will lead Labour through the 2020GE. :-)

    I didn't believe the rumours, but if he is saying that maybe there is something in them after all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm mystified - why would Trump object to Gorsuch now? He's simply showing a bit of 'I'm My Own Man' ankle.

    He won't. Trump's questioning of the judges is a bit unbecoming of his office though.
  • I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017

    Mr. T, I'll believe it when I see it. I can't see (beyond UKIP) which party is going to propose it. Labour won't want to lose votes, the Conservatives won't want to be seen as nasty.

    The recent polling seems to suggest that the media narrative is again out of synch with public opinion on all things diversity.

    I could understand a version of it linked to all face-hiding.

    Services and shops being able to decline custom and turn people away, for example. It was certainly the case that banks and petrol stations would never permit custom from people who hid behind a face covering long before religion became a justification.

    On a practical level, hidden faces are a problem when driving because a key method of communication with other drivers and pedestrians is taken away.
  • HYUFD said:

    If Len says he would like a new Labour leadership election, then there will be one. And if he backs someone different to Corbyn, it's game over.

    Not unless the members change their mind it won't. The unions now have no votes in the leadership election

    Whether you like it or not the memberships' views are changing. To anyone who follows what is going on inside Labour that is absolutely clear.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?
    A vote in principle followed by a vote on the actual deal would have been a perfectly logical way to go about Brexit. There are two aspects to every issue of this nature - (A) do you want to stop doing something and (b) what do you want to do instead

    But Leavers know only to well that no specific deal would be likely to command a majority. Which is precisely why during the referendum you could find Leavers promising every type of Brexit and refusing to be nailed down on what Brexit would look like. Don't blame them for that - it was Cameron's fault for structuring the thing in the way he did.

    But the consequences are that we are likely to be leaving on a deal that doesn't even command majority support at the time we leave let alone once it gets played out. We are still in a phony war and political turbulence for Brexiters in general and the Tories in particular I suspect lay ahead of us.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Mr Observer,

    My Irish in-laws still laugh at the double-referendum there when they mistakenly voted wrongly. We English would never do anything so stupid, would we?

    It's over. Done to a turn, and with only the finer details to be sorted.

    Come on, Tim, you're gonna need a bigger boat to launch.
  • Fake laird.

    'Academic touted as Trump’s EU envoy embellished autobiography

    Mr Malloch also wrote that he was “made a laird by Lord Lyon of Scotland and given a personal coat of arms with a fancy Latin inscription”.

    However, the Clerk and Keeper of the Records at the court of the Lord Lyon said: “The Lord Lyon does not, nor could he, create a person a laird . . . It would certainly be incorrect [for Mr Malloch] to say that ‘he was made a laird by the Lord Lyon King of Arms’.” Mr Malloch told the FT that he had a scroll showing his position as laird.'

    http://tinyurl.com/jhejpk5

    He has a scroll!

    One of these, perhaps:

    https://www.highlandtitles.com

    (Got one, similar for a birthday, and no, I don't use it...)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Has the commons Speaker ever had such a public row with the Lords speaker before ?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?

    You don't trust the people. But that's the establishment for you.

    Whether or not someone feels the people would return the same result -which I do - it is not absurd to ask where it would end? In all honesty it might be a good idea if we had referendums with minimum thresholds as in some countries or a rule about no repeats too soon, but we don't, so people are free to press ahead even if a vote was 50% plus one vote and people change their minds and yes, free to try to ask the people over and over again.

    I struggle to see why the people should not be given the opportunity to approve the Brexit deal the government concludes. Isn't Brexit supposed to be about taking back control?

    They can do that quite easily at the next general election. If they think the deal was too hard and they want another referendum they can vote LD and if they think it too soft they can vote UKIP. We only had a referendum on the EU in the first place because it was a Tory manifesto commitment and the Tories won a majority at the last general election

    If the deal has been done by the time of the next GE it will be too late.

    Not if the LDs won a general election on a platform of a referendum to rejoin the Single Market and restore unfettered free movement which the EU would happily accept

    Parties advocating just that could quite conceivably win most votes at the next election, but not a majority in the Commons.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited February 2017

    HYUFD said:

    If Len says he would like a new Labour leadership election, then there will be one. And if he backs someone different to Corbyn, it's game over.

    Not unless the members change their mind it won't. The unions now have no votes in the leadership election

    Whether you like it or not the memberships' views are changing. To anyone who follows what is going on inside Labour that is absolutely clear.

    There is no polling evidence of that as yet just 5 months after Labour members re elected Corbyn by a landslide
  • Mr. Pulpstar, has the Speaker replied to the Lords Speaker's statement the other day?

    Mr. Chestnut, I agree, but, as with foreign aid, it doesn't matter if the political class has a consensus around a position entirely separate from public opinion unless there's some other party for whom to vote. UKIP seems to be declining (we'll see how well Nuttall does and whether he can hold the party, and its funding, together).

    If UKIP drops off into irrelevance, I can't see any other party advocating a burqa ban.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Mr. Pulpstar, has the Speaker replied to the Lords Speaker's statement the other day?

    Mr. Chestnut, I agree, but, as with foreign aid, it doesn't matter if the political class has a consensus around a position entirely separate from public opinion unless there's some other party for whom to vote. UKIP seems to be declining (we'll see how well Nuttall does and whether he can hold the party, and its funding, together).

    If UKIP drops off into irrelevance, I can't see any other party advocating a burqa ban.

    Bercow has apologised, but it is an almighty clanger - and the first thing I pointed attention to when everyone else seemed to be focussing on other parts of his speech.
    On a semi-related note I am also concerned HMG bounced the palace into the Trump visit, without much meaningful consultation.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Len says he would like a new Labour leadership election, then there will be one. And if he backs someone different to Corbyn, it's game over.

    Not unless the members change their mind it won't. The unions now have no votes in the leadership election

    Whether you like it or not the memberships' views are changing. To anyone who follows what is going on inside Labour that is absolutely clear.

    There is no polling evidence of that as yet just 5 months after Labour members re elected Corbyn by a landslide

    Yes, I know. That's why you need to be following what is going on inside Labour.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Mr. Pulpstar, has the Speaker replied to the Lords Speaker's statement the other day?

    Mr. Chestnut, I agree, but, as with foreign aid, it doesn't matter if the political class has a consensus around a position entirely separate from public opinion unless there's some other party for whom to vote. UKIP seems to be declining (we'll see how well Nuttall does and whether he can hold the party, and its funding, together).

    If UKIP drops off into irrelevance, I can't see any other party advocating a burqa ban.

    Not unless there are far more parties in Europe and the USA advocating it - or the ban in force in different countries. With the impartial BBC leading any discussion, it would be a courageous decision.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Mr. Pulpstar, has the Speaker replied to the Lords Speaker's statement the other day?

    Mr. Chestnut, I agree, but, as with foreign aid, it doesn't matter if the political class has a consensus around a position entirely separate from public opinion unless there's some other party for whom to vote. UKIP seems to be declining (we'll see how well Nuttall does and whether he can hold the party, and its funding, together).

    If UKIP drops off into irrelevance, I can't see any other party advocating a burqa ban.

    I can't see any future for UKIP now that the Commons has agreed A50.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Pulpstar said:

    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.

    I doubt you find any judge who is a fan of presidential abuse about judges.
    Obama was very rude a few years back - but the media loved him so didn't apply the same test.


    Obama Criticizes Supreme Court in State of the Union Address


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiDiHX50zT4
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Fake laird.

    'Academic touted as Trump’s EU envoy embellished autobiography

    Mr Malloch also wrote that he was “made a laird by Lord Lyon of Scotland and given a personal coat of arms with a fancy Latin inscription”.

    However, the Clerk and Keeper of the Records at the court of the Lord Lyon said: “The Lord Lyon does not, nor could he, create a person a laird . . . It would certainly be incorrect [for Mr Malloch] to say that ‘he was made a laird by the Lord Lyon King of Arms’.” Mr Malloch told the FT that he had a scroll showing his position as laird.'

    http://tinyurl.com/jhejpk5

    He has a scroll!

    Brilliant, Also, Mrs Thatcher called him a genius, he was largely responsible for the end of the Soviet Union, and best of all:

    Mr Malloch also writes that he was “knighted in the Sovereign Order of St John by the Queen, Elizabeth II herself” and “to my family and closest friends, I am therefore known as Sir Ted”

    google "Academic touted as Trump’s EU envoy embellished autobiography" to get through ft paywall.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited February 2017
    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.

    I doubt you find any judge who is a fan of presidential abuse about judges.
    Obama was very rude a few years back - but the media loved him so didn't apply the same test.


    Obama Criticizes Supreme Court in State of the Union Address


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiDiHX50zT4

    Criticising judgments and courts is very different to criticising judges as individuals.

  • Mr. T, heard something of that yesterday, with a second senior policeman backing up the claims (essentially, a shitload of serious crime is being committed by the migrants we let in, and Sweden's stupid laws on racial discrimination mean reporting this truth may be a crime).

    Mr. Chestnut, English and Welsh nationalism could be a way to go for UKIP. That, or trying to supplant Labour as a white working class party.

    Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder if HM prefers male PMs.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,652
    SeanT said:

    Kippis!!!

    Too early! (liian aikainen).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.

    I doubt you find any judge who is a fan of presidential abuse about judges.
    Obama was very rude a few years back - but the media loved him so didn't apply the same test.


    Obama Criticizes Supreme Court in State of the Union Address


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiDiHX50zT4

    Criticising judgments and courts is very different to criticising judges as individuals.

    Presidents should do neither.
  • I recall reading here the other day that an opinion poll gave May a massive lead as "preferred PM" nationwide but Corbyn actually had a narrow "preferred PM" lead among Remainers while May dominated among Leavers.

    Can't remember who the poll was by. Been through the thread headers and can't find it.

    Does anyone know what I'm talking about and/or have a link to the poll?
  • I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    Hoyle is a very good egg but I do wish he was a bit more articulate.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017

    Mr. T, heard something of that yesterday, with a second senior policeman backing up the claims (essentially, a shitload of serious crime is being committed by the migrants we let in, and Sweden's stupid laws on racial discrimination mean reporting this truth may be a crime).

    Mr. Chestnut, English and Welsh nationalism could be a way to go for UKIP. That, or trying to supplant Labour as a white working class party.

    Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder if HM prefers male PMs.

    I read that too and original source - it rang true of a very frustrated man. I don't want to believe it's true - but suspect it is. I found parts of Norway really bizarre - I got on the wrong tram and ended up somewhere where most of the women were in black or sky blue burqas.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Len says he would like a new Labour leadership election, then there will be one. And if he backs someone different to Corbyn, it's game over.

    Not unless the members change their mind it won't. The unions now have no votes in the leadership election


    Whether you like it or not the memberships' views are changing. To anyone who follows what is going on inside Labour that is absolutely clear.

    There is no polling evidence of that as yet just 5 months after Labour members re elected Corbyn by a landslide

    Yes, I know. That's why you need to be following what is going on inside Labour.

    I've no idea what is going on inside Labour. I can't even keep my fridge stocked with milk. But if Corbyn does go and Labour gets a new leader they won't have much in the way of baggage associating themselves with the failings of the Blair/Brown/Miliband years. So that would be plus.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    Mr. Pulpstar, agree with those predictions although anti-EU parties are also likely to do well (and could top the poll in the Netherlands).

    The PVV will almost certainly top the poll in the Netherlands, but will probably do so on less than a fifth of the vote.
  • Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.

    I doubt you find any judge who is a fan of presidential abuse about judges.
    Obama was very rude a few years back - but the media loved him so didn't apply the same test.


    Obama Criticizes Supreme Court in State of the Union Address


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiDiHX50zT4

    Criticising judgments and courts is very different to criticising judges as individuals.

    Presidents should do neither.

    They always do the former.

  • I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    Hoyle is a very good egg but I do wish he was a bit more articulate.
    Well he is a Lancastrian, you have to make allowances
  • OllyT said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?
    A vote in principle followed by a vote on the actual deal would have been a perfectly logical way to go about Brexit. There are two aspects to every issue of this nature - (A) do you want to stop doing something and (b) what do you want to do instead

    But Leavers know only to well that no specific deal would be likely to command a majority. Which is precisely why during the referendum you could find Leavers promising every type of Brexit and refusing to be nailed down on what Brexit would look like. Don't blame them for that - it was Cameron's fault for structuring the thing in the way he did.

    But the consequences are that we are likely to be leaving on a deal that doesn't even command majority support at the time we leave let alone once it gets played out. We are still in a phony war and political turbulence for Brexiters in general and the Tories in particular I suspect lay ahead of us.

    Except that once Article 50 is triggered it can't be unilaterally untriggered. So we would have a referendum on "accept this deal" or "crash out with no deal". Is that what you really want?

    It's not the Leavers fault this is the case - it is the fault of Gordon Brown's Labour government which with the connivance of the Lib Dems ratified without a referendum the Lisbon Treaty that made this the procedure for anyone leaving. Two years to the day after Article 50 is invoked we are out come what may unless we can get unanimous agreement to postpone our exit and there is no guarantee we will get that. Many on the continent are quite happy now to see us leave.
  • Mr. Royale, Titus Manlius Torquatus was looked down upon by his father because of a speech impediment, yet went on to become one of the greatest generals of his time.

    Miss Plato, for all the 'fake news' nonsense, a failure to report on politically unhelpful things, like rape committed by recent migrants (or 'cultural sensitive' sex crimes in Rotherham) is the most serious sort. And it erodes public faith in media, police and politicians, making it less likely the authorities are taken seriously later on.

    Mr. 1000, indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    Hoyle is a very good egg but I do wish he was a bit more articulate.
    Well he is a Lancastrian, you have to make allowances
    He gave a cracking call to order !
    Some voice.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,855

    I recall reading here the other day that an opinion poll gave May a massive lead as "preferred PM" nationwide but Corbyn actually had a narrow "preferred PM" lead among Remainers while May dominated among Leavers?

    See Remania is so serious it makes you think "Corbyn would be the better PM". Sad.
  • I see jahadi jez had another Trumpian outburst on the been this morning ....Failing Fake News BBC...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    IanB2 said:

    Morning all.

    A pact between the ‘progressive’ ? LOL, Corbyn can’t even keep his front bench together.

    Neither the hard left nor the machine politicians of the soft left can reasonably be described as progressive, in any positive sense of the word. There are some progressive people within Labour, mostly who joined a socialist party to advocate liberal principals, but they are the ones who now find themselves stranded in a very barren environment.
    Progressive is defined as favouring social reform.

    Leaving the EU is a great social reform.

    Therefore that policy is progressive.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If we should have a referendum on the EU deal why shouldn't we have one on every trade deal we do with a foreign country?
  • I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    I'm sure that there's an easier way of reducing UKIP to zero MPs. Having said that I think Carswell would be OK as Speaker, he came out well in the expenses scandal. How unlike his UKIP colleagues when it comes to expenses.
  • OllyT said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I guess this is why Nick Clegg called AV "A miserable little compromise".

    Also amusing that in the above scenarios, the result was either a Con majority or would have most likely been a Con/UKIP coalition, maybe with a few Ulstermen helping out. Is that really what all those of the left arguing for PR would have wanted?

    It's not ALL about party advantage, some of it is about good governance, fairness and promoting voter involvement.
    So that's why the LDs want a few hundred MPs to ignore the EU referendum result.

    Aren't the LDs calling for voters to be given the opportunity of a second referendum? For some reason, Leavers have stopped trusting the British people and believe that they should not be allowed to vote again once the reality of the Brexit deal becomes known. Sad.
    Silly - even by your usual standards. what next ? best of 3?
    A vote in principle followed by a vote on the actual deal would have been a perfectly logical way to go about Brexit. There are two aspects to every issue of this nature - (A) do you want to stop doing something and (b) what do you want to do instead

    But Leavers know only to well that no specific deal would be likely to command a majority. Which is precisely why during the referendum you could find Leavers promising every type of Brexit and refusing to be nailed down on what Brexit would look like. Don't blame them for that - it was Cameron's fault for structuring the thing in the way he did.

    But the consequences are that we are likely to be leaving on a deal that doesn't even command majority support at the time we leave let alone once it gets played out. We are still in a phony war and political turbulence for Brexiters in general and the Tories in particular I suspect lay ahead of us.

    Except that once Article 50 is triggered it can't be unilaterally untriggered. So we would have a referendum on "accept this deal" or "crash out with no deal". Is that what you really want?
    Absolutely yes. Even if it is no deal at all we will soon enough settle into a perfectly OK M.O. and the sun will still come up in the east. What I cannot accept at all is some process whereby we might fail actually to leave.
  • glw said:

    I recall reading here the other day that an opinion poll gave May a massive lead as "preferred PM" nationwide but Corbyn actually had a narrow "preferred PM" lead among Remainers while May dominated among Leavers?

    See Remania is so serious it makes you think "Corbyn would be the better PM". Sad.
    Indeed that's why I'm trying to find the link to show to someone who thinks everyone sending went Remain and Brexit was due to loons. Any idea of what poll it was?
  • isam said:

    If we should have a referendum on the EU deal why shouldn't we have one on every trade deal we do with a foreign country?

    The Brexit deal will not just be about trade.

  • It may have been Labour preferred rather than Corbyn amongst Remain voters thinking about it but I still can't find it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    isam said:

    If we should have a referendum on the EU deal why shouldn't we have one on every trade deal we do with a foreign country?

    The Brexit deal will not just be about trade.

    In theory it won't be a trade deal at all.
  • I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    I'm sure that there's an easier way of reducing UKIP to zero MPs. Having said that I think Carswell would be OK as Speaker, he came out well in the expenses scandal. How unlike his UKIP colleagues when it comes to expenses.
    Carswell has always been a very decent and principled Leaver (working closely with Hannan). Under Dave and George the Tory party moved away from him. Post Brexit, with them gone and Mrs May / David Davis running the show, the Tory party has moved right back to his long term position. If UKIP is a damp squib in Stoke they're done. Carswell may well cross the floor back to his original home.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    If you're interested in such stuff - the WH YouTube account is often entertaining. Yesterday's press briefing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOO5Bk98vDk

  • Except that once Article 50 is triggered it can't be unilaterally untriggered. So we would have a referendum on "accept this deal" or "crash out with no deal". Is that what you really want?

    It's not the Leavers fault this is the case - it is the fault of Gordon Brown's Labour government which with the connivance of the Lib Dems ratified without a referendum the Lisbon Treaty that made this the procedure for anyone leaving. Two years to the day after Article 50 is invoked we are out come what may unless we can get unanimous agreement to postpone our exit and there is no guarantee we will get that. Many on the continent are quite happy now to see us leave.

    Yes I can see Lisbon was all Gordon Brown's fault but for the sake of the slower kids at the back, can you explain what happened to David Cameron's "cast iron guarantee" of a referendum on Lisbon?

    Note:internal quotes excised to meet Vanilla's length limit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Pulpstar said:

    Gorsuch is not a fan of Trump's attacks on the judiciary. It will not affect his supreme court judgements.

    I doubt you find any judge who is a fan of presidential abuse about judges.
    Well quite. Judges always get upset with politicians sticking their oar in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    On the subject of Mr Speaker, surely any attempt to unseat him will wait until the A50 Bill has completed its journey through Parliament and is on the Queen's desk?

    I could well image Bercow clinging on then making life difficult for those who opposed him on the govt benches.
  • How will Lords vote?

    I reckon about ~600 may turn up to vote and I'd expect 400-200 or so at 2nd reading.

    It's amendments I'm not sure about.
  • Patrick said:

    I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    I'm sure that there's an easier way of reducing UKIP to zero MPs. Having said that I think Carswell would be OK as Speaker, he came out well in the expenses scandal. How unlike his UKIP colleagues when it comes to expenses.
    Carswell has always been a very decent and principled Leaver (working closely with Hannan). Under Dave and George the Tory party moved away from him. Post Brexit, with them gone and Mrs May / David Davis running the show, the Tory party has moved right back to his long term position. If UKIP is a damp squib in Stoke they're done. Carswell may well cross the floor back to his original home.
    That makes sense, the players have changed and the path cleared for Carswell to return, if he was so inclined. Not sure what qualifies him for the role speaker though and we’re long overdue another lady speaker, perhaps we can clone Betty...
  • 5...4..3...2..1...jahadi jez announces policy of 15% rise in council tax for social care.
  • How will Lords vote?

    I reckon about ~600 may turn up to vote and I'd expect 400-200 or so at 2nd reading.

    It's amendments I'm not sure about.

    I think the Lords will support the £350m per week for the NHS amendment.

    Salisbury-Addison convention here we come.
  • Twenty-nine percent support for such a hike is pretty high.
  • How will Lords vote?

    I reckon about ~600 may turn up to vote and I'd expect 400-200 or so at 2nd reading.

    It's amendments I'm not sure about.

    I think the Lords will support the £350m per week for the NHS amendment.

    Salisbury-Addison convention here we come.
    Hain was banging on about amendment for commitment to being in single market on newsnight last night. Wouldn't surprise me if that view is wider held in HoL.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017

    Patrick said:

    I think Lindsay Hoyle will make a brilliant speaker but the Commons should choose Douglas Carswell as speaker.
    I'm sure that there's an easier way of reducing UKIP to zero MPs. Having said that I think Carswell would be OK as Speaker, he came out well in the expenses scandal. How unlike his UKIP colleagues when it comes to expenses.
    Carswell has always been a very decent and principled Leaver (working closely with Hannan). Under Dave and George the Tory party moved away from him. Post Brexit, with them gone and Mrs May / David Davis running the show, the Tory party has moved right back to his long term position. If UKIP is a damp squib in Stoke they're done. Carswell may well cross the floor back to his original home.
    That makes sense, the players have changed and the path cleared for Carswell to return, if he was so inclined. Not sure what qualifies him for the role speaker though and we’re long overdue another lady speaker, perhaps we can clone Betty...
    Actually becoming the Speaker could be a perfect out for Carswell. He would ostensibly be a Ukip MP, so wouldn't need to suffer the indignity of reratting, but would be compelled not to show any support for them, which may suit him very well.

    His twitter bio doesn't mention Ukip, he is already an independent MP to all intents and purposes.
  • Does anyone know when the council tax valuations will be updated.

    I know back in 1991 ours was a band D, and I'm fairly certain houses prices have increased a bit since then, even before all the extensions we've had.
  • SeanT said:

    Skal!

    I have just also found out, via the bizarre medium of a Turkish website, that Cornish thriller-meister's masterpiece FALDET went to number 3 in Denmark last September

    http://www.karar.com/hayat-haberleri/demir-perde-bir-kalemde-yerle-yeksan-248497#

    I can tell you're all excited. OK, you're not excited, but I am. No one tells me these things, I have to google.

    Basically this book has been a bloody great hit right across the world with the Notable Exception of America, the biggest market of all. Pffff!

    I'm going to the gym to work off my rage against the Yanks.

    Failing Cornish thriller writer..sad!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120


    It's crazy that the Commons clings to Bercow when there are so many fantastic candidates waiting in the wings. Lindsay Hoyle, Carswell, the Mogster and many others could do the job much better and without the attention seeking grandstanding of Bercow.

    #GetBercow

  • Does anyone know when the council tax valuations will be updated.

    I know back in 1991 ours was a band D, and I'm fairly certain houses prices have increased a bit since then, even before all the extensions we've had.

    Never.

    Perhaps once we've left the EU we might introduce a better method of local government revenue raising, including local sales taxes etc., in the 2020s.

    But not holding my breath.
This discussion has been closed.