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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a progressive alliance in Stoke Central might be doomed

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    The clock seems to be ticking for Corbyn as the scales fall from eyes.

    This was as predicted by many of us here on PB. The romantic summer lover affair with Corbyn was so obviously utterly ridiculous, given the actual reality of the man and his abilities, that it was bound to end sooner rather than later.

    Greens to get an up-tick in membership shortly?
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    NEW THREAD

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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    rkrkrk said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I'm genuinely perplexed by the % of Labour members/ voters, et al re Islam. It seems to run counter to everything they say they believe in - LGBT/female rights/tolerance of others.

    I'm not alone here, so all help is most welcome. I'm thinking of the C4 ICM polling here.

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/icm-muslims-survey-for-channel-4/

    What specifically are you perplexed about?
    The utter cognitive dissonance of it all.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Meeks, or maybe it's I try to avoid posting politics on Twitter.

    Mr. D, nonsense, great minds think alike :D

    That is some rewriting of history. Unlike some of her rivals, Theresa May abjectly refused to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK in July:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/tory-backlash-as-theresa-may-fails-to-guarantee-eu-citizens-righ/

    Unsurprisingly, the rest of the EU declined to let her use this subject as a ruse to enter into preliminary negotiations before the UK serves notice under Article 50.

    And as for your opening line, this is what the rest of the world has seen of Leavers in the last year:

    https://brexiteu.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/breaking-point-nazi-style-propaganda.jpg

    https://politicaladvertising.co.uk/2016/05/24/vote-leaves-new-poster-uses-turkey-as-a-bogeyman/

    http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/139/590x/farage-731813.jpg
    The Turkey poster is a perfect illustration of the hypocrisy of the holier-than-thou Remainer. Turkey's position was at the time that "Negotiations were started on 3 October 2005 and out of 35 Chapters necessary to complete the accession process, 16 have been opened and one has been closed." That is Wikipedia. Life is too short to investigate in detail what this means, but it certainly means that accession talks were in progress. Accession talks are in principle intended to bring about accession. Just to underline the point that this was the case in June 2016, the EU parliament put a stop to the talks in November 2016.

    The Remainer case seems to be: the claim that the intention was that Turkey should join the EU was misleading and intended to the Turcophobia of the horrible average UK prole. It was misleading because the clever EU non-proles were playing a game because it was obvious in reality that Turkey's accession would be blocked by the clever EU non-proles - and that this outcome was guaranteed because of the latent Turcophobia of the average cler EU non-prole.

    I am still not sure what would have been the better result on 23 June, but fecking hell, Remain deserved to lose.
    I have never believed that the British government seriously wanted Turkey to become a member of the EU (others may disagree). They could promote Turkish membership, secure in the knowledge that it would be vetoed by either member governments. But, it seems a bit harsh to blame the Leave campaign for taking the government's statements at face value.
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    Personally I think it's a disgrace that Theresa May didn't immediately reciprocate when the EU27 agreed unanimously to guarantee the rights of UK citizens currently living in EU countries.
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    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks.

    From relatively genial Antifrank, you've become very one-eyed when it comes to Brexit.

    There are always two sides to every story.

    I worked on the land by way of the gang system for all my school holidays from age thirteen upwards. But one university summer holiday, I managed to get a job at the fertilizer factory instead.

    Only because my dad worked there and I knew the foreman.

    I was employed to load lorries with the 1cwt (50 kilo bags). Alternatively, I could load the newly-sealed bags neatly on to pallets as they came down a chute every six seconds. There was an emergency button just in case. The first two days were hard. I put on nearly four pounds in weight in one month and none of it was fat. It wouldn’t be allowed now for health and safety reasons.

    Yet that job was preferable to working on the land.

    I still remember one April day in the sixties long-hoeing a row of cabbages which stretched to the horizon. And the horizon is a long way away In the Lincolnshire fens. And when you’ve seen one cabbage surrounded by weeds, you’ve seen them all. To increase my misery, there was a biting wind sweeping across from Siberia that chilled me to the bone.

    It never occurred to me that there were options.

    Post 2000, the Eastern Europeans arrived. The pay was marvellous compared to their homeland and gradually the land workers became almost exclusively Lithuanian and Polish. That’s easy to understand.

    The town changed too. There weren’t many old ‘uns but they still need schools, language services and maternity care.

    The locals saw the town change before their eyes, and jobs disappear, and the link was broken. The farmers are addicted to cheap foreign labour. The locals have other options now that benefits are better and there are other job options in the warm.

    Labour’s response in opposition? Ensure the jobs are better paid and conditions are better and here’s a small fund to help with the increased services. Too bloody late, and too bloody little. You should have thought of that before you opened the taps. That’s why they locals voted 76% to leave.

    I may be an old curmudgeon now (I hold my hand up to that), and I’m not up to date with the new technology - we picked tates by hand. But land work remains a hard and boring job. Forget the picture of sunny days, with young man carrying sheaths of straw and romping with rosy-cheeked girls in low-cut dresses. That was never real.

    Thanks to Labour, the law of unintended consequences lives on. And lectures by the metropolitan elite in London don’t impress.

    Yes, they should embrace diversity. But it was thrust upon them without a choice.

    Robotics will shortly do away with the need for manual labour on the land. At least for arable and vegetable. Herding cows and sheep may take a while longer.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    An interesting view http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/britain-needs-statute-limitations-sex-offences/

    "Authorities have all but given up pursuing terrorist murders back in the 1970s, with old IRA men sent comfort letters assuring them they no longer face prosecution. How bizarre that placing an uninvited hand on someone’s knee can now be effectively treated as a more serious matter than blowing their head off with Semtex.

    The lack of a statute of limitations on sex offences is beginning to make our justice system look bizarrely sex-obsessed. It is rather as if the criminal justice system is being run by the prisoners – in whose moral code murderers can be held up as heroes but nonces are the lowest of the low. For murder and rape it is right that there should be no statute of limitation, but for accusations of groping and stroking, six months would be a perfectly wide enough window for victims to come forward.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Meeks, or maybe it's I try to avoid posting politics on Twitter.

    Mr. D, nonsense, great minds think alike :D

    That is some rewriting of history. Unlike some of her rivals, Theresa May abjectly refused to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK in July:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/tory-backlash-as-theresa-may-fails-to-guarantee-eu-citizens-righ/

    snip

    https://brexiteu.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/breaking-point-nazi-style-propaganda.jpg

    https://politicaladvertising.co.uk/2016/05/24/vote-leaves-new-poster-uses-turkey-as-a-bogeyman/

    http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/139/590x/farage-731813.jpg
    The Turkey poster is a perfect illustration of the hypocrisy of the holier-than-thou Remainer. Turkey's position was at the time that "Negotiations were started on 3 October 2005 and out of 35 Chapters necessary to complete the accession process, 16 have been opened and one has been closed." That is Wikipedia. Life is too short to investigate in detail what this means, but it certainly means that accession talks were in progress. Accession talks are in principle intended to bring about accession. Just to underline the point that this was the case in June 2016, the EU parliament put a stop to the talks in November 2016.

    The Remainer case seems to be: the claim that the intention was that Turkey should join the EU was misleading and intended to the Turcophobia of the horrible average UK prole. It was misleading because the clever EU non-proles were playing a game because it was obvious in reality that Turkey's accession would be blocked by the clever EU non-proles - and that this outcome was guaranteed because of the latent Turcophobia of the average cler EU non-prole.

    I am still not sure what would have been the better result on 23 June, but fecking hell, Remain deserved to lose.
    I have never believed that the British government seriously wanted Turkey to become a member of the EU (others may disagree). They could promote Turkish membership, secure in the knowledge that it would be vetoed by either member governments. But, it seems a bit harsh to blame the Leave campaign for taking the government's statements at face value.
    Well quite. Universal suffrage is just that; people are not denied a vote because they are stupid proles. If you think virtually everyone but yourself is a stupid prole, this must be an uncomfortable state of affairs, but that is how it is. And "Trust me, I was lying to the Turks, not to you" is a fairly self-stultifying line of argument.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Oh my word. This SmugMode guy is why Trump won

    Paul Joseph Watson
    Bill Kristol: Lazy White Working Class Americans Should be Replaced by Immigrants - https://t.co/BdIq3yDrba https://t.co/SPWZJfT7xA
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    How will Lords vote?

    I reckon about ~600 may turn up to vote and I'd expect 400-200 or so at 2nd reading.

    It's amendments I'm not sure about.

    I think the Lords will support the £350m per week for the NHS amendment.

    Salisbury-Addison convention here we come.
    Wouldn't that make it a money bill though? That would mean (I think) that the Lord's can no longer amend it, even if the Commons strikes out that change.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:


    Yes, I didn't say it would be free to change it, but it is hardly difficult since the labels are typically printed at the store in question. As for the online store, you can easily solve that for 95% of cases by looking at the IP address of the customer.

    Have you been involved with much in the way of retail stock, inventory and store management? Trust me, it is not as straightforward as it looks.

    Some things are very hard to do, but simple to say. JFK Once said "... Let's put a man on the moon..".
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543

    Personally I think it's a disgrace that Theresa May didn't immediately reciprocate when the EU27 agreed unanimously to guarantee the rights of UK citizens currently living in EU countries.

    Quite so. There must be an interesting correlation between people who think like this and nuclear unilateralists. It's negotiation Jim, but not as we know it.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    Blimey - the Huffington Post has an article outside their box re free speech and regressive left

    "This is what public discourse between people who disagree is supposed to look like. It’s not supposed to look like the absolute temper tantrum that many regressive leftists throw at his events.

    And when they’re not throwing tantrums, these regressives resort to the next most destructive thing, name-calling. You’ve all heard it over the course of the past year. Conservatives are racist, sexist, islamophobic etc. Despite my progressive views and liberal credentials as a youth leader in the Democratic Party, I’ve been called all of these things when I speak freely about political issues. The one thing I have not been called is the utterly hyperbolic “neo-Nazi.”

    Milo has been called a neo-Nazi by many of his most fervent critics. He is also a half Jewish, openly gay man. I will refer to my ethnic heritage when I say that calling Milo a Nazi is incredibly insulting to the memory of my ancestors and the millions of others who suffered during the holocaust.

    Milo is not an oppressor, he’s a messenger. I don’t agree with every aspect of his message. However, I must admit, I agree with some of it. And that’s important. It’s important for people from different sides of the isle to listen to one another. That’s how you find common ground and come to a consensus. It’s how you change minds and strengthen your movement.

    http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5898a3dbe4b061551b3e011c
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,044

    RobD said:


    Yes, I didn't say it would be free to change it, but it is hardly difficult since the labels are typically printed at the store in question. As for the online store, you can easily solve that for 95% of cases by looking at the IP address of the customer.

    Have you been involved with much in the way of retail stock, inventory and store management? Trust me, it is not as straightforward as it looks.

    Some things are very hard to do, but simple to say. JFK Once said "... Let's put a man on the moon..".
    ...by the end of this decade, and return him to Earth safely.

    And they bloody did it!
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    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Via Patrick Wintour, a speech by the Czech Europe Minister on how Czechia sees Brexit:

    http://www.prouza.cz/blog/projev-na-konferenci-brexit-vyzvy-pro-evropskou-unii-a-spojene-kralovstvi/

    Not very compromising. Two passages stood out:

    "The UK’s ambitions to have trade relations as close as possible without being a part of the single market and the customs union are frankly speaking unrealistic. The EU cannot undermine the very principles on which the internal market was established and has to ensure a level playing field.

    The possibility of cherry-picking is the biggest danger that would devalue the existing efforts of all Member States. We cannot allow unhindered access to the single market in areas that suit the UK and limit access to the UK market for European companies. There must be some “Give” for all the UK’s “Take”."

    And:

    "Our legacy for future generations cannot be a world where the clock turned back a century and everybody is an enemy. However, we cannot achieve this if we continue to make unfounded claims about each other. I am speaking about the continuing and growing aggression towards other nationals, especially citizens from central Europe, in the UK."

    Sounds pretty positive for the UK government here.
    The "continued and growing aggression" is a myth. The EU seem to think we're all now Brownshirts in the UK.

    In reality, it's a small and tiny minority and the talk of 100%-200% increases in attacks was, in reality, a case of 60 incidents a month in a population of 65 million going up to 120-150 incidents a month, in a population of 65 million, just after the EU Ref and has since died back.

    Or to put it another way 99.9973% of us are capable of ending a year without launching any aggression.
    Well quite. There is too much reporting bias in these figures to put any trust in them at all. It's like the period which led to the Dangerous Dogs Act - Dog bites Man became news for a while, and judging by inches of newsprint you would have thought there was a 1,000% rise in dogbites. If you want to detect racism in the EU, get a taxi in Holland and ask the driver what he thinks of muslim immigrants, or go to an Italian football match and marvel at the number of banana skins thrown at the black players. Or to the Italian parliament to hear one politician of ministerial rank call another an orangutan.
    The UK was, is, and remains one of the most tolerant nations in Europe.
    I'm not remotely convinced that Theresa May's government is a far right one. It seems more like a fairly standard Tory government to me.
    You haven't lost your head.
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    Personally I think it's a disgrace that Theresa May didn't immediately reciprocate when the EU27 agreed unanimously to guarantee the rights of UK citizens currently living in EU countries.

    Have they? I thought they were yet to do so, which is precisely why she hasn't.
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    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. Meeks, or maybe it's I try to avoid posting politics on Twitter.

    Mr. D, nonsense, great minds think alike :D

    The Turkey poster is a perfect illustration of the hypocrisy of the holier-than-thou Remainer. Turkey's position was at the time that "Negotiations were started on 3 October 2005 and out of 35 Chapters necessary to complete the accession process, 16 have been opened and one has been closed." That is Wikipedia. Life is too short to investigate in detail what this means, but it certainly means that accession talks were in progress. Accession talks are in principle intended to bring about accession. Just to underline the point that this was the case in June 2016, the EU parliament put a stop to the talks in November 2016.

    The Remainer case seems to be: the claim that the intention was that Turkey should join the EU was misleading and intended to the Turcophobia of the horrible average UK prole. It was misleading because the clever EU non-proles were playing a game because it was obvious in reality that Turkey's accession would be blocked by the clever EU non-proles - and that this outcome was guaranteed because of the latent Turcophobia of the average cler EU non-prole.

    I am still not sure what would have been the better result on 23 June, but fecking hell, Remain deserved to lose.
    I have never believed that the British government seriously wanted Turkey to become a member of the EU (others may disagree). They could promote Turkish membership, secure in the knowledge that it would be vetoed by either member governments. But, it seems a bit harsh to blame the Leave campaign for taking the government's statements at face value.
    The British Government was bluffing and we were supposedly to privately work this out.

    The Leave campaign knew it, but held the Government to account for their publicly stated view, and used it as a campaigning tool, because they correctly calculated the Government would refuse to disown its public position for diplomatic reasons.

    Both sides were being cynical, and I imagine many average voters didn't know what to make of it. But it was credible because the British Government had supported EU expansion and liberal border controls before, and repeatedly made promises on immigration that were not kept.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,192

    Personally I think it's a disgrace that Theresa May didn't immediately reciprocate when the EU27 agreed unanimously to guarantee the rights of UK citizens currently living in EU countries.

    Have they? I thought they were yet to do so, which is precisely why she hasn't.
    I don't recall that " the EU27 agreed unanimously to guarantee the rights of UK citizens currently living in EU countries."
This discussion has been closed.