politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Matters / Opinium survey: Public backs Brexit as the r

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@seanjonesqc: May on EU: We can be as rude as we like because a trade deal is common sense.
May on Trump: If we don’t fawn over him, there’ll be no deal.

Inasmuch as that correctly characterises the PM's view, she's probably right. Of all major countries, the US is currently the only one where the ego of the leader is the key factor in that country's policy.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

weejonnie said:

SeanT said:

CAVEAT EMPTOR

THIS is being spread on Twitter

Update-10:43PM CST: Syrian Refugees Bashir al-Taweed & Hassan Matti have killed 8 in Quebec City Mosque. Yelled "Allah Akbar" & used AK47s
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes


HOWEVER it is being spread by Trumpsters and alt-right accounts, and the only source seems to be "Canadian police radio", so treat with EXTREME caution.

That is the problem - if you believe the MSM are totally honest only reporting facts then you dismiss it. If you distrust MSM because they seem habitually to be underestimating Islamic terrorism threats then you welcome it with open arms.

On balance it seems that more terrorist attacks initially blamed on the far right turn out to be Islamic attacks than vice versa.

I agree. And increasingly I mistrust the MSM to give us the facts about Islamic terror, unless it is gouged out of them, or they have no choice. This is especially true in places like Germany, where I know from close friends that the media has been TOLD to keep migrant crime/terror attacks out of the public eye as much as poss.

Esteban Santiago springs to mind. Who knows who did this latest attack? Best to just wait and see

Wait and see? WAIT AND SEE? What is this guff. PB (and the internet) lives off rapid, overhasty judgements, premature ejaculations, precocious misperceptions, and general minute by minute real time errors, howlers and miscalls. And the odd brilliant ahead-of-the-curve news prediction.

It's what makes it fun. The alternative you suggest, sitting here in polite silence until the Mounties maybe give us the answer next Wednesday, is just too ridiculous for words.

Your breathless frothing about human tragedy adds nothing to the site. Stick to your strengths.

Your London centric, sneering superiority gets on my tits, but I don't call on you to zip it. Have a bit of self awareness!

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Why is a state visit and not an official one in our national interest? Trump is being honoured in a way that no other US president ever has been. We both know the answer. His ego demands a state visit. And we have to give him what he wants.

What's the problem? If you can buy something useful with baubles, why not?

Because what we will get is not worth the price. If an FTA with the UK is in the US's interests the US will pursue one whether Trump gets to meet the Queen or not. If it isn't, then we won't get one. Prostrating ourselves at the feet of such a divisive figure in such circumstances is not in our national interest.

Patrick said:

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

weejonnie said:

SeanT said:

CAVEAT EMPTOR

THIS is being spread on Twitter

Update-10:43PM CST: Syrian Refugees Bashir al-Taweed & Hassan Matti have killed 8 in Quebec City Mosque. Yelled "Allah Akbar" & used AK47s
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes


HOWEVER it is being spread by Trumpsters and alt-right accounts, and the only source seems to be "Canadian police radio", so treat with EXTREME caution.

That is the problem - if you believe the MSM are totally honest only reporting facts then you dismiss it. If you distrust MSM because they seem habitually to be underestimating Islamic terrorism threats then you welcome it with open arms.

On balance it seems that more terrorist attacks initially blamed on the far right turn out to be Islamic attacks than vice versa.

I agree. And increasingly I mistrust the MSM to give us the facts about Islamic terror, unless it is gouged out of them, or they have no choice. This is especially true in places like Germany, where I know from close friends that the media has been TOLD to keep migrant crime/terror attacks out of the public eye as much as poss.

Esteban Santiago springs to mind. Who knows who did this latest attack? Best to just wait and see

Wait and see? WAIT AND SEE? What is this guff. PB (and the internet) lives off rapid, overhasty judgements, premature ejaculations, precocious misperceptions, and general minute by minute real time errors, howlers and miscalls. And the odd brilliant ahead-of-the-curve news prediction.

It's what makes it fun. The alternative you suggest, sitting here in polite silence until the Mounties maybe give us the answer next Wednesday, is just too ridiculous for words.

I'm with Sean. I come here because it's an excellent, fast news resource. If I want slow, late sanitized news, I'd go to the BBC or Sky. Or The Mail if I want Doutzen Kroes in stockings.

Especially when the mainstream media are DELIBERATELY slow to report some of these terror crimes. The tragic thing today is that if you want the best, quickest insight into what might be happening, you often have to go alt-right news sites and loonyland neoFash Twitter accounts.

The North American MSM is deeply in the bag for democrats / leftyism / identity politics generally. You simply won't get objective news on this sort of event from CNN/MSNBC/etc. I hear that the German news channels are even worse!

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Because what we will get is not worth the price. If an FTA with the UK is in the US's interests the US will pursue one whether Trump gets to meet the Queen or not. If it isn't, then we won't get one. Prostrating ourselves at the feet of such a divisive figure in such circumstances is not in our national interest.

This is about the negotiation with the EU, not the US. Of course the government wishes to play the two off against each other. It's the most basic ruse in negotiation to pretend you've got an alternative. (It works even better if you have actually got an alternative, of course).

Ishmael_Z said:

Dromedary said:

A Canadian Liberal MP, Greg Fergus, former national director of the Liberal party, seems to be jumping with joy. His time has come! He pulled out his phone and tweeted as follows: "This is an act of terrorism -- the result of years of sermonizing Muslims. Words matter and hateful speeches have consequences!"

Not very clearly expressed - sermonizing typo for demonizing? Or does he mean people preaching to muslims or muslims preaching to people,or what?

Black_Rook said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cicero, not sure why a buffoon in the White House means the UK should cede ever more sovereignty, without democratic assent, to a supra-national body nobody ever voted to join.

Clearly people did vote to join said supra-national institution back in 1975. It is almost certainly true that most of them were voting for the Common Market and not Ever-Closer Union, but nonetheless some people did try to warn them what was coming, and were ignored.

But setting aside that little piece of pedantry, I see where you are coming from and agree. Brexit is a permanent strategic decision about the direction of the country, Trump is a temporary office holder. The appearance of the latter does nothing to change the principles behind the former.

Theuniondivvie said:

SNIP

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@seanjonesqc: May on EU: We can be as rude as we like because a trade deal is common sense.
May on Trump: If we don’t fawn over him, there’ll be no deal.

Inasmuch as that correctly characterises the PM's view, she's probably right. Of all major countries, the US is currently the only one where the ego of the leader is the key factor in that country's policy.

SouthamObserver said:

Major democracies. But you are right, that is what the government is tying us to: a man whose decision making is driven by his ego. That, of course, makes him entirely unpredictable and untrustworthy.

David_Evershed said:

Just one. When HM the Queen signs it.

DecrepitJohnL said:

logical_song said:

Does Vice President Mike Pence agree with The Donald about Muslim ban?
http://www.snopes.com/mike-pence-muslim-ban-offensive/

Yes -- what the Trump fans keep forgetting is that Trump beat not just Hillary but also all the mainstream Republican politicians. Trump's rise is a defeat for the right as well as for the left.

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

Major democracies. But you are right, that is what the government is tying us to: a man whose decision making is driven by his ego. That, of course, makes him entirely unpredictable and untrustworthy.

This article posits that Trump is attempting a coup, which makes him a less than ideal partner, perhaps.

https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial-balloon-for-a-coup-e024990891d5#.vfcsw2qcn

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/826022102155276290

David_Evershed said:

I thought Germany does not allow dual nationality for German citizens.

Scott_P said:

David_Evershed said:

Just one. When HM the Queen signs it.

1.5m signatures. The same number of people that attended Trump's inauguration...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, if the US embassy here is contradicting the official line then that either needs to be set right in short order *or* a stronger statement needs to be made.

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, if the US embassy here is contradicting the official line then that either needs to be set right in short order *or* a stronger statement needs to be made.

Boris making a statement in the House later. I wonder what line he will come out with

Fysics_Teacher said:

malcolmg said:

AlsoIndigo said:

rkrkrk said:

nunu said:

There is a more sensible way forward on the Muslim ban- only allow in refugees who are women and children and elderly. Not young men.

Splitting up families and ensuring we miss out on economically productive young men is not a good idea.

Wasnt the experience in Germany that most of the young men from those parts of the world were in fact not economically productive ?

Edit:

And a grand total of 54 refugees have managed to find employment with the country's biggest 30 companies, according to a survey in June by the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Fifty of them are employed by Deutsche Post.

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/08/28/489510068/despite-early-optimism-german-companies-hire-few-refugees

Exactly , you import the crime and fork out more benefits. A good idea might be for them to put some effort into our local non productive people having to get employment rather than paying them large benefits and importing more.

What do you think of the idea that freedom of movement could be retained for Scotland only, with passports stamped so that those concerned could only reside in Scotland?

SeanT said:

OK this IS a reliable source. One of the Quebec killers is "Moroccan"

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1013833/attentat-mosquee-quebec-etudiants-universite-laval

AllyPally_Rob said:

If you are a British Duel National, does your UK passport state this?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Hmm, this could become a big story:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-30/trump-s-next-move-on-immigration-to-hit-closer-to-home-for-tech

After the new president banned refugees and travelers from seven predominantly Muslim countries, Google, Facebook, Salesforce, Microsoft and others railed against the move, saying it violated the country’s principles and risked disrupting its engine of innovation. Trump’s next steps could strike even closer to home: His administration has drafted an executive order aimed at overhauling the work-visa programs technology companies depend on to hire tens of thousands of employees each year.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Slackbladder said:

Brian Cox ‏@ProfBrianCox 22 hrs22 hours ago

A lot of people voted to leave the EU last year in good faith. Now the world has changed. Now we have a choice to make. Europe or Trump?

And many others.

Which is exactly the SNP pitch. Funny that...

Yes and EU looks much more inviting than the butt licking UK

Morning Malc - how much does Scotland export to the EU and how much to England.

And surprised a Scotsman wants to be ruled by Brussels

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, if the US embassy here is contradicting the official line then that either needs to be set right in short order *or* a stronger statement needs to be made.

Boris making a statement in the House later. I wonder what line he will come out with

TOPPING said:

AlsoIndigo said:

I wish I was party to all the information people seem to have here today. Southam appears to be party to the details of the negotiation between the Trump team and the British Government and clearly has a much better handle on what is in the national interest than any of the cabinet or the civil service. As if that is not enough Topping clearly has access to the details of the side channel negotiations between the government and our EU partners and is clearly much better placed to know whether there was any mileage in freedom of movement vs the single market. We are truly blessed to have such insights into these closely held and confidential matters, long may it continue

Booooorrrrrinnnngggg.

We are all discussing likely scenarios. If you want to wait until 2019 when we will know for sure what the A50 negotiations look like then you could save yourself a whole bunch of bits & bytes.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Hmm, this could become a big story:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-30/trump-s-next-move-on-immigration-to-hit-closer-to-home-for-tech

After the new president banned refugees and travelers from seven predominantly Muslim countries, Google, Facebook, Salesforce, Microsoft and others railed against the move, saying it violated the country’s principles and risked disrupting its engine of innovation. Trump’s next steps could strike even closer to home: His administration has drafted an executive order aimed at overhauling the work-visa programs technology companies depend on to hire tens of thousands of employees each year.

How many engineers do Google, Facebook and Microsoft recruit from Somalia I wonder. Or possibly it has nothing to do with the "engine of innovation" and everything to do with the liberal principles of the companies and their founders. There is nothing wrong with that of course, but they should say so, and spare us the bullshit.

Perhaps you should read the article.

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Slackbladder said:

Brian Cox ‏@ProfBrianCox 22 hrs22 hours ago

A lot of people voted to leave the EU last year in good faith. Now the world has changed. Now we have a choice to make. Europe or Trump?

And many others.

Which is exactly the SNP pitch. Funny that...

Yes and EU looks much more inviting than the butt licking UK

Though 54% of Scots would still vote No in today's Panelbase poll

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

Slackbladder said:

Brian Cox ‏@ProfBrianCox 22 hrs22 hours ago

A lot of people voted to leave the EU last year in good faith. Now the world has changed. Now we have a choice to make. Europe or Trump?

And many others.

Which is exactly the SNP pitch. Funny that...

Yes and EU looks much more inviting than the butt licking UK

Morning Malc - how much does Scotland export to the EU and how much to England.

And surprised a Scotsman wants to be ruled by Brussels

Indeed. And this time the question shouldn't be the vague but loaded "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Given that Brexit is being used explicitly by the SNP to roll the dice again, I would suggest:

"Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom in order to remain part of the EU?"

That would ensure that all the consequences as explicitly on the table - trade tariffs with England, border controls, joining Schengen, adoption of the Euro.

Remember that the wording has to be agreed and thus isn't just up to the SNP nor the Scottish Government. The UK Government is a player too with the Electoral Commission acting as referee. Last time Cameron pretty well rolled over and agreed to a wording referencing "independence" that clearly affected the outcome compared to more neutral alternatives that referred to leaving the UK.

Whether or not a new Scottish referendum referred to the EU, if there is to be a next time the bottom line for the UK government should be that the word "independence" should be no-where on the ballot paper.

Casino_Royale said:

Mr Salmond said reports Mr Trump was reluctant to meet Prince Charles during the visit were "an indication of the sort of enormous difficulties you get into when you hold somebody tight who is unpredictable, who has a range of views you find unacceptable."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38788388?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Is he talking about Trump, or Charles?

AlsoIndigo said:

TOPPING said:

AlsoIndigo said:

I wish I was party to all the information people seem to have here today. Southam appears to be party to the details of the negotiation between the Trump team and the British Government and clearly has a much better handle on what is in the national interest than any of the cabinet or the civil service. As if that is not enough Topping clearly has access to the details of the side channel negotiations between the government and our EU partners and is clearly much better placed to know whether there was any mileage in freedom of movement vs the single market. We are truly blessed to have such insights into these closely held and confidential matters, long may it continue

Booooorrrrrinnnngggg.

We are all discussing likely scenarios. If you want to wait until 2019 when we will know for sure what the A50 negotiations look like then you could save yourself a whole bunch of bits & bytes.

You were telling us quite forcefully that the government had thrown away the single market without even testing to see if there was room for manoeuvre on freedom of movement. On what basis, perhaps the conversation has happened and they were told to piss off, if we float various ideas now and they say no, why would they say yes later when the clock is running ?

franklyn said:

The one million signature mark has been passed on the Trump petition. Quite impressive in less than 36 hours. At what number would the government have to rethink?

Fysics_Teacher said:

Dromedary said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

If you are a British Duel National, does your UK passport state this?

No - certainly if you are British by birth you don't even have to tell the British authorities that you are a citizen of another country. But your British passport will state your birthplace.

When the British foreign secretary addresses the House of Commons today I'm wondering how many newspapers will mention that he is a US citizen.

Is he still? I thought he had renounced his US citizenship after he had a tax demand.

dr_spyn said:

Skewed signing data on Donald Trump Band.

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/826035783073144832

glw said:

Black_Rook said:

And the forthcoming protests bring the issues of Trump, Brexit and May together in one convenient package. No wonder that Anti-England is on the warpath.

People are seizing on Trump as yet another way of blocking Brexit, on some sort of "it's too risky right now" basis. When that fails they'll find something else, and as the end date approaches of us actually leaving the EU I would imagine there will be increasingly desperate arguments made against it.

glw said:

Black_Rook said:

And the forthcoming protests bring the issues of Trump, Brexit and May together in one convenient package. No wonder that Anti-England is on the warpath.

People are seizing on Trump as yet another way of blocking Brexit, on some sort of "it's too risky right now" basis. When that fails they'll find something else, and as the end date approaches of us actually leaving the EU I would imagine there will be increasingly desperate arguments made against it.