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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron still in 3rd place in French Presidential polling but i

SystemSystem Posts: 12,551
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron still in 3rd place in French Presidential polling but if he makes final 2 he looks set to win

Final 2 polling in French Presidential Election. If Macron makes final 2 he looks set to win but he's currently 3rdhttps://t.co/EeQ4equdzY pic.twitter.com/vOAuINymEp

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 30,489
    edited January 2017
    Première

    Isn't the current working assumption anyone who makes the final two and doesn't have the surname Le Pen will win...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    I love the French voting system, nearly as brilliant as AV
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    What makes people so sure that Le Pen will be in the final two ? It could be Fillon vs Macron. Or, even, Macron vs Le Pen [ if she narrowly beats Fillon ]
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I love the French voting system, nearly as brilliant as AV

    AV referendum 2011:

    No 2 AV 68%
    Yes 2 AV 32%

    :innocent:
  • isamisam Posts: 42,127
    Stoke by election

    Ukip and Labour both odds against on Betfair
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    Sorry. I don't agree. The two years can be extended if both parties agree.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    While I don't dispute that Lab's actions caused, shall we say, some disgruntlement, it was nevertheless a democratically-elected UK government that ratified the Lisbon Treaty.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    surbiton said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    Sorry. I don't agree. The two years can be extended if both parties agree.
    Why would the EU agree to extend? They hold all the cards.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    While I don't dispute that Lab's actions caused, shall we say, some disgruntlement, it was nevertheless a democratically-elected UK government that ratified the Lisbon Treaty.
    If it had gone to a referendum and it had won it would have put this whole issue mostly to bed IMO.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.

    Yes, he wasn't equivocating. Now look what you've done, y'all have angried up my blood. I'll have to stomp around impotently for awhile.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    Sorry. I don't agree. The two years can be extended if both parties agree.

    No it can't. The two years can be extended if 28 parties unanimously agree. That is outside our control. We can't control how the other parties act once Article 50 is invoked.

    Besides why would they agree? A number of people on other sides have said that if we're leaving the process should be completed before the 2019 European Parliament Elections. Not an unreasonable request.
    TOPPING said:

    While I don't dispute that Lab's actions caused, shall we say, some disgruntlement, it was nevertheless a democratically-elected UK government that ratified the Lisbon Treaty.

    Just as it will be a democratically-elected UK government that will ratify Article 50 that Lisbon created.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    edited January 2017
    surbiton said:

    What makes people so sure that Le Pen will be in the final two ? It could be Fillon vs Macron. Or, even, Macron vs Le Pen [ if she narrowly beats Fillon ]

    The presidential voting system was designed so that there would be a run-off, in the second round De Gaulle would stand against a tame socialist and De Gaulle would win. It doesn't entirely work to design any more, not least because De Gaulle is dead.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.

    Fella, step away from the G&Ts.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    surbiton said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    Sorry. I don't agree. The two years can be extended if both parties agree.
    If *all* parties agree. The EU27 would need unanimity on that point. Every member has a veto.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    surbiton said:

    What makes people so sure that Le Pen will be in the final two ? It could be Fillon vs Macron. Or, even, Macron vs Le Pen [ if she narrowly beats Fillon ]

    Polls and votes over the last 3-4 years.

    Though she might yet falter at the final hurdle.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. 43, proof, were it needed, that De Gaulle is a lightweight. Being dead hasn't stopped Kim Il-Sung[sp] being president of North Korea.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,127
    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.

    What do you expect when this is their hero?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwcl_ZehPtE
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    Philip_Thompson said:

    surbiton said:

    Sorry. I don't agree. The two years can be extended if both parties agree.

    No it can't. The two years can be extended if 28 parties unanimously agree. That is outside our control. We can't control how the other parties act once Article 50 is invoked.

    Besides why would they agree? A number of people on other sides have said that if we're leaving the process should be completed before the 2019 European Parliament Elections. Not an unreasonable request.
    TOPPING said:

    While I don't dispute that Lab's actions caused, shall we say, some disgruntlement, it was nevertheless a democratically-elected UK government that ratified the Lisbon Treaty.

    Just as it will be a democratically-elected UK government that will ratify Article 50 that Lisbon created.
    Well of course. That's how democracy works. I mean people even, de temps en temps, vote in a Labour government.

    Doesn't mean I have to like it.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.


    That video is devastating to any of the "advisory" or other excuses. Cameron said it strongly to warn the British people of the consequences of the vote - and we still voted Leave.

    The "you've made a mistake, I'll override your decision" MPs are the ones making a terrible mistake.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    While I don't dispute that Lab's actions caused, shall we say, some disgruntlement, it was nevertheless a democratically-elected UK government that ratified the Lisbon Treaty.
    If it had gone to a referendum and it had won it would have put this whole issue mostly to bed IMO.
    shouda, woulda, coulda...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,124
    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited January 2017
    surbiton said:

    What makes people so sure that Le Pen will be in the final two ? It could be Fillon vs Macron. Or, even, Macron vs Le Pen [ if she narrowly beats Fillon ]

    Le Pen has been in the first two in polling in just about every poll over the past 6 months and probably longer. Her support appears to be pretty solid at around 26 or 27%.

    For her to be beaten by both the fading Fillon and Macron, it would mean that they both need to be 26% plus in the first round. Considering the vote share is going to be diluted by the socialist candidate (probably Hamon) Melenchon (polling 13-14%) possibly Bayrou (if he runs) and one or two others on the ballot paper, the top three taking over 78% of the vote appears to be an unlikely scenario.

    So yes, it COULD be Fillon v Macron if Le Pen's vote collapses in the first round in comparison to what all the polls have forecast, but it is unlikely.

    And yes, I agree with you that it could well be Macron v Le Pen. In fact that is the likeliest outcome in my opinion, given Fillon's current problems and the mud that is likely to stick even if he is cleared.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/emilygosden/status/824889634706518016
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Ho, ho ....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
  • isamisam Posts: 42,127
    By the way Sky News are discussing the Gender Pay gap...












    ...in kids pocket money
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.


    That video is devastating to any of the "advisory" or other excuses. Cameron said it strongly to warn the British people of the consequences of the vote - and we still voted Leave.

    The "you've made a mistake, I'll override your decision" MPs are the ones making a terrible mistake.

    Yep - I think they are extremely misguided. English voters are likely to judge them harshly.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?


    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,936
    david_herdson said:

    surbiton said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    Sorry. I don't agree. The two years can be extended if both parties agree.
    If *all* parties agree. The EU27 would need unanimity on that point. Every member has a veto.
    The more likely will be a transistional deal
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John_M said:

    A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea./

    Well, that bit was...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    SouthamObserver said:

    Ho, ho ....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320

    Not sure who this puts in worse light! Probably the secret service since it should have been obvious there aren't more than 12 months in a year!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.

    You jelly-spined, weak, naive, childlike TOSSER.

    We are leaving. Geddit? Leaving the EU.

    But as every fuckwit is quick to point out, there was no manifesto for leave. No, you're right, amazingly the OFFICIALLY-DESIGNATED LEAVE CAMPAIGN was, apparently, not empowered to dictate what flavour of leave we would get.

    So we are in limbo with all sides fighting for what they believe best for the UK. Apart, perhaps, from you, who seems so divorced from the realities of life in the UK that you only comment after your first sundowner in a country 5,000 miles away.

    We are working out what is best for us as a non-EU member. As plenty of people who know what they are talking about will point out, non-EU members including Norway, Liechtenstein and home of equally virulent Leaver Max, Switzerland, are all members of the single market. So plenty of options for us.

    Get with the programme.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    We'll need a BASA or some other similar arrangement.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    FAA?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    John_M said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    We'll need a BASA or some other similar arrangement.
    We would, but it's highly technical work. Then the body would have to be ratified internationally. I never conceived we would leave EASA.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,257
    edited January 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Ho, ho ....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320

    I am.not buying they don't understand, rather the paperwork is wrong and they are been hard headed about it....same as if you used to fill your green slip in a similarly incorrect manner and walked up to the immigration booth.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Beer o'clock has chimed early tonight.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/momentumtrump2/status/825023519348113409
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    We'll need a BASA or some other similar arrangement.
    We would, but it's highly technical work. Then the body would have to be ratified internationally. I never conceived we would leave EASA.
    In truth, I don't know if we are either. Euratom is a given (per the story).

    Ultimately, May did the smart thing in her Lancaster House speech by shooting the Single Market fox (bear with me here!).

    But she didn't (and couldn't) cover the future of the ECAA, EMA, EASA, Erasmus, ESA, ITER, CERN, ESO and all the other multilateral agreements we currently have under the umbrella of EU membership.

    I want to add this. There's been a fair amount of sneering about 'low information' voters in the EUref - not necessarily on here, which is civilisation itself compared to Twitter etc. But it's clear that no one is an expert on the ramifications of the technical aspects of EU membership. We were all, to some extent, low information voters.

    *edit* No mention of any other body apart from Euratom in:

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0132/en/17132en.pdf
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Beer o'clock has chimed early tonight.

    Well it is Friday.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Ho, ho ....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320

    I am.not buying they don't understand, rather the paperwork is wrong and they are been hard headed about it....same as if you used to fill your green slip in a similarly incorrect manner and walked up to the immigration booth.
    ISO 8601 FTW.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    This is getting worse than the Millennium bug!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,257
    I see the white house has spelt Tessie's name incorrectly 3 times on press release...as in they spelt it as the NSFW lady Mrs may.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,813
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    surbiton said:

    This part I am not sure is legally watertight. Why "this" final deal vs. No deal ? Who decided that ? Is it written anywhere ?

    Gordon Brown decided that when he ratified the Lisbon Treaty against the Conservatives wishes which authorised the creation of Article 50 and set that as the method by which we leave. Until then we would have to have left by negotiating our withdrawal and repealing the 1972 Act without any formal withdrawal mechanism.

    Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.

    Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
    While I don't dispute that Lab's actions caused, shall we say, some disgruntlement, it was nevertheless a democratically-elected UK government that ratified the Lisbon Treaty.
    If it had gone to a referendum and it had won it would have put this whole issue mostly to bed IMO.
    shouda, woulda, coulda...
    "You don't understand. I coulda had class. I coulda been a BREXITEER. I coulda been somebody, instead of a REMOANER, which is what I am, let's face it!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,813
    John_M said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    We'll need a BASA or some other similar arrangement.
    We would, but it's highly technical work. Then the body would have to be ratified internationally. I never conceived we would leave EASA.
    In truth, I don't know if we are either. Euratom is a given (per the story).

    Ultimately, May did the smart thing in her Lancaster House speech by shooting the Single Market fox (bear with me here!).

    But she didn't (and couldn't) cover the future of the ECAA, EMA, EASA, Erasmus, ESA, ITER, CERN, ESO and all the other multilateral agreements we currently have under the umbrella of EU membership.

    I want to add this. There's been a fair amount of sneering about 'low information' voters in the EUref - not necessarily on here, which is civilisation itself compared to Twitter etc. But it's clear that no one is an expert on the ramifications of the technical aspects of EU membership. We were all, to some extent, low information voters.

    *edit* No mention of any other body apart from Euratom in:

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0132/en/17132en.pdf
    Non-EU members take part in EURATOM, ERASMUS, CERN, etc, etc.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    This is getting worse than the Millennium bug!
    Please calm down. I've expanded the information down thread :).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,403
    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    This is getting worse than the Millennium bug!
    Nope. Triggering article 50 makes no difference at all. We do not leave anything until we leave the EU

    This is just more scaremongering bollocks.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    John_M said:

    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/

    Just one example of many where untangling four decades of membership is going to be very messy and disruptive.

    But we already knew that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,710
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    Why ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    I was convinced he wouldn't last until 2020 but you persuaded me otherwise.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    POTUS greets May at WH
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    John_M said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    We'll need a BASA or some other similar arrangement.
    We would, but it's highly technical work. Then the body would have to be ratified internationally. I never conceived we would leave EASA.
    In truth, I don't know if we are either. Euratom is a given (per the story).

    Ultimately, May did the smart thing in her Lancaster House speech by shooting the Single Market fox (bear with me here!).

    But she didn't (and couldn't) cover the future of the ECAA, EMA, EASA, Erasmus, ESA, ITER, CERN, ESO and all the other multilateral agreements we currently have under the umbrella of EU membership.

    I want to add this. There's been a fair amount of sneering about 'low information' voters in the EUref - not necessarily on here, which is civilisation itself compared to Twitter etc. But it's clear that no one is an expert on the ramifications of the technical aspects of EU membership. We were all, to some extent, low information voters.

    *edit* No mention of any other body apart from Euratom in:

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0132/en/17132en.pdf
    Non-EU members take part in EURATOM, ERASMUS, CERN, etc, etc.
    Yes, I appreciate that, and have stated so before. However, they often have conditions - e.g. Erasmus (if I understand it correctly) requires some level of commitment to freedom of movement. When I can be arsed, I'll go and re-read that section ;).
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    What has happened for you to say that ?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    surbiton said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    What has happened for you to say that ?
    He's lost The Canary.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    The USA military are absolutely fed up of NATO, for just how long I hadn't realised - https://blog.usni.org/2017/01/23/the-death-of-nato .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,813
    edited January 2017
    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Ho, ho ....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320

    I am.not buying they don't understand, rather the paperwork is wrong and they are been hard headed about it....same as if you used to fill your green slip in a similarly incorrect manner and walked up to the immigration booth.
    ISO 8601 FTW.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Date_format_by_country

    image
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Talking of Macron, this will probably play well in France:
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/825014413287682050
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    I was convinced he wouldn't last until 2020 but you persuaded me otherwise.
    How do they get over the membership who look on him almost as a cult
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Has Corbyn had his Stalingrad moment?

    Perhaps wishful thinking.

    Perhaps not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,025
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see the white house has spelt Tessie's name incorrectly 3 times on press release...as in they spelt it as the NSFW lady Mrs may.

    I'm sure they googled to check before sending it out...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,936
    SouthamObserver said:

    Talking of Macron, this will probably play well in France:
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/825014413287682050

    French panic
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    This is getting worse than the Millennium bug!
    Nope. Triggering article 50 makes no difference at all. We do not leave anything until we leave the EU

    This is just more scaremongering bollocks.
    There will undoubtedly be a huge amount of negotiation to arrive back (for certain areas and sectors) at the position we currently already occupy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    surbiton said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    What has happened for you to say that ?
    He's allowed himself to become separated from his support base on a subject of considerable importance to them.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am.not buying they don't understand, rather the paperwork is wrong and they are been hard headed about it....same as if you used to fill your green slip in a similarly incorrect manner and walked up to the immigration booth.

    Yes it's the Secret Service not the Keystone Cops, they don't do "flexibility" or "sense of humour". Someones presumably working on the paperwork right now to officially acknowledge there are other date formats.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PAW said:

    The USA military are absolutely fed up of NATO, for just how long I hadn't realised - https://blog.usni.org/2017/01/23/the-death-of-nato .

    It was a standard topic of conversation with the Yanks, all the time I was in the Civil Service. This business with the EU army, while entirely understandable from a European perspective, is not going down well among my former contacts.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, M. Macron obviously needs to find a way of persuading those to the left of him to vote tactically for him in the first round. You'd think it was achievable, were it not for the fact the same problem is regularly not solved by other centre leftists.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    OOPS!! Someone needs to tell Monsieur Fillon that when he is in a hole, he should stop digging!!

    Thursday night on TF1 , Fillon sought to anticipate any future controversy. The presidential candidate thus acknowledged having paid two of his children lawyers of the time when he was senator of the Sarthe, between September 2005 and June 2007. Problem: his children were not yet graduates at that time ... Marie, 34, was sworn in on 14 November 2007, while Charles, enrolled in the New York Bar in 2010, joined that of Paris a year later.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Jobabob, that could be taken either way. Is Corbyn Stalin, or Hitler, in your analogy?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    AlastairMeeks said:

    surbiton said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    What has happened for you to say that ?
    He's allowed himself to become separated from his support base on a subject of considerable importance to them.
    Indeed. A major strategic error and the (likely) resignations from the left on the front bench could damage him. This is not another revolt of the moderates.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    Yep - it will be a very unLabour-like coup, involving the trade unions; with backing from former cheerleaders in the press. Then Nick Palmer will come on here and say it was always going to happen and that Jeremy was never the right person for the job ;-)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,710
    AlastairMeeks said:

    surbiton said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    What has happened for you to say that ?
    He's allowed himself to become separated from his support base on a subject of considerable importance to them.
    But will Lewis attempt to plunge the knife ?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jobabob, that could be taken either way. Is Corbyn Stalin, or Hitler, in your analogy?

    Hitler (for clarity – and to avoid a Godwin – I am not comparing him to Hitler ideologically but strategically in this case)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    Yep - it will be a very unLabour-like coup, involving the trade unions; with backing from former cheerleaders in the press. Then Nick Palmer will come on here and say it was always going to happen and that Jeremy was never the right person for the job ;-)

    LOL
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    edited January 2017
    off topic

    A thing of beauty. Could watch it 5x a day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQYeSXpC244
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,025
    https://twitter.com/julianroepcke/status/825027959186677760
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,925
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.

    You jelly-spined, weak, naive, childlike TOSSER.

    We are leaving. Geddit? Leaving the EU.

    But as every fuckwit is quick to point out, there was no manifesto for leave. No, you're right, amazingly the OFFICIALLY-DESIGNATED LEAVE CAMPAIGN was, apparently, not empowered to dictate what flavour of leave we would get.

    So we are in limbo with all sides fighting for what they believe best for the UK. Apart, perhaps, from you, who seems so divorced from the realities of life in the UK that you only comment after your first sundowner in a country 5,000 miles away.

    We are working out what is best for us as a non-EU member. As plenty of people who know what they are talking about will point out, non-EU members including Norway, Liechtenstein and home of equally virulent Leaver Max, Switzerland, are all members of the single market. So plenty of options for us.

    Get with the programme.
    And you accused me of being the bargain bin SeanT. Brexit really has destroyed some posters' dignity.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Watching that Cameron video, I'm coming close to thinking Remoaners should go to fucking jail.

    Enough now.

    You jelly-spined, weak, naive, childlike TOSSER.

    We are leaving. Geddit? Leaving the EU.

    But as every fuckwit is quick to point out, there was no manifesto for leave. No, you're right, amazingly the OFFICIALLY-DESIGNATED LEAVE CAMPAIGN was, apparently, not empowered to dictate what flavour of leave we would get.

    So we are in limbo with all sides fighting for what they believe best for the UK. Apart, perhaps, from you, who seems so divorced from the realities of life in the UK that you only comment after your first sundowner in a country 5,000 miles away.

    We are working out what is best for us as a non-EU member. As plenty of people who know what they are talking about will point out, non-EU members including Norway, Liechtenstein and home of equally virulent Leaver Max, Switzerland, are all members of the single market. So plenty of options for us.

    Get with the programme.
    And you accused me of being the bargain bin SeanT. Brexit really has destroyed some posters' dignity.
    Which bit did I get wrong?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Anecdote alert.

    Some of my left wing friends in Labour are beginning to despair at the party's position and find the new members a bit of a handful and waiting for them to leave in protest at the next moment.

    The end indeed could come for Corbyn this year. It might be too late for Labour.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    www2.politicalbetting.com 's DNS entry has gone away, at least for me on Verizon in downstate New York. politicalbetting.com (with no subdomain) is working still.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,403
    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    This is getting worse than the Millennium bug!
    Nope. Triggering article 50 makes no difference at all. We do not leave anything until we leave the EU

    This is just more scaremongering bollocks.
    There will undoubtedly be a huge amount of negotiation to arrive back (for certain areas and sectors) at the position we currently already occupy.
    Of course there will. But the idea we will be locked out of anything we are currently members of and which does not require EU membership is garbage.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    Macron looks very short to me.

    The French are crying out for change.

    Is a Blairite centrist what they want?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,546
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Talking of Macron, this will probably play well in France:
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/825014413287682050

    French panic
    Frenchman campaigning for public office says thing he hopes will win him votes.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, M. Macron obviously needs to find a way of persuading those to the left of him to vote tactically for him in the first round. You'd think it was achievable, were it not for the fact the same problem is regularly not solved by other centre leftists.

    He should get some support from the left, supporters of Valls for instance (who is likely to be knocked iout in the Primary on sunday) Valls is more towards centre than Hamon and some of his supporters are likely to migrate to Macron. Also he could well be the recipient of those who would normally have voted for Fillon but have become disenchanted by his latest financial revelations.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TOPPING said:

    off topic

    A thing of beauty. Could watch it 5x a day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQYeSXpC244

    What a nightmare to box against. All those wasted punches. Totally knackering.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Ho, ho ....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320

    I am.not buying they don't understand, rather the paperwork is wrong and they are been hard headed about it....same as if you used to fill your green slip in a similarly incorrect manner and walked up to the immigration booth.
    American bureaucracy is marked by its rigid inflexibility. I like to say that it's because the two groups that mostly settled the original 13 states were British and German. America could have been run with German efficiency and British flexibility but got the exact opposite.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    edited January 2017
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Report on my Facebook page that UK is pulling out of European Nuclear Research programmes. Is that true?

    Apparently yes
    EU lawyers informed the UK that A50 invocation would automatically trigger Euratom exit as well. It wasn't our idea.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
    What about EASA? Planes can't fly if they aren't certified by that body. Nor can ATC control movements.
    This is getting worse than the Millennium bug!
    Nope. Triggering article 50 makes no difference at all. We do not leave anything until we leave the EU

    This is just more scaremongering bollocks.
    There will undoubtedly be a huge amount of negotiation to arrive back (for certain areas and sectors) at the position we currently already occupy.
    Of course there will. But the idea we will be locked out of anything we are currently members of and which does not require EU membership is garbage.
    I've no idea. I don't know how those things work. You and I would assume that it will all be ok and that we're dealing with sensible civilised people and nothing needs to change and no impediments will be placed in our way.

    But there is no way we can be sure. Plus there we are negotiating to get back to where we were before and all for what? We'll be negotiating to place ourselves under some EU jurisdiction or other when the whole point of Brexit, surely, was to free ourselves from such jurisdiction. Right?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited January 2017
    rpjs said:

    www2.politicalbetting.com 's DNS entry has gone away, at least for me on Verizon in downstate New York. politicalbetting.com (with no subdomain) is working still.

    In north Georgia (on AT&T) I get the 'resolving host' message sometimes when on the www2 site but it works mostly.

    When I lived in New York state there was no internet...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote alert.

    Some of my left wing friends in Labour are beginning to despair at the party's position and find the new members a bit of a handful and waiting for them to leave in protest at the next moment.

    The end indeed could come for Corbyn this year. It might be too late for Labour.

    It'll be a very long road back. A different leader provides some hope that Labour could help deny the Tories an overall majority in 2020. That would be a start. For as long as Corbyn and McDonnell are there the party will not even get a hearing.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    SouthamObserver said:

    TOPPING said:

    off topic

    A thing of beauty. Could watch it 5x a day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQYeSXpC244

    What a nightmare to box against. All those wasted punches. Totally knackering.

    It irritates me when people say he is boring to watch.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm beginning to think that the end for Jeremy Corbyn might come very suddenly.

    Yep - it will be a very unLabour-like coup, involving the trade unions; with backing from former cheerleaders in the press. Then Nick Palmer will come on here and say it was always going to happen and that Jeremy was never the right person for the job ;-)

    Naughty naughty... but nice.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,208
    rpjs said:

    www2.politicalbetting.com 's DNS entry has gone away, at least for me on Verizon in downstate New York. politicalbetting.com (with no subdomain) is working still.

    Ditto
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    And another one's gone ...
    https://twitter.com/misselliemae/status/825030166753718273
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,546
    Casino_Royale said:

    Macron looks very short to me.

    The French are crying out for change.

    Is a Blairite centrist what they want?

    Who knows? A third of the French want Le Pen. And 50% abhor her.

    A quarter of French want a Thatcherite, and about two thirds think that isn't what France needs.

    And a about one in five think that Macon has what it takes.

    That being said, I've met Emmanuel Macron and he's a very sharp cookie. Will he win? Probably not. But is it possible that those on the Left lend him their votes to avoid a Fillon - Le Pen run-off? Yes, it's possible.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I used to get quite nauseous before giving a big speech. I'm now getting the same feeling on PM May's behalf, and it's not 17:30 yet. Please God, let it be OK and not a cringefest.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    Has he grabbed her pussy yet?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited January 2017
    Theresa May and POTUS pose in front of the Churchill bust. Trump says it's an honor to have Churchill back. Her outfit is as red as his tie.
This discussion has been closed.