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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron still in 3rd place in French Presidential polling but if he makes final 2 he looks set to win
Final 2 polling in French Presidential Election. If Macron makes final 2 he looks set to win but he's currently 3rdhttps://t.co/EeQ4equdzY pic.twitter.com/vOAuINymEp
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Isn't the current working assumption anyone who makes the final two and doesn't have the surname Le Pen will win...
Ironic isn't it? The betrayal of the nation and Labour's 2005 manifesto to have a referendum on the EU Constitution is what created this exit mechanism that has now left Labour rather impotent in the negotiations and forced to choose between the hardest of hard exits or Theresa May's exit.
Without Lisbon we'd have had no Article 50 and thus no automatic exit if Parliament doesn't like the final deal.
No 2 AV 68%
Yes 2 AV 32%
Ukip and Labour both odds against on Betfair
Besides why would they agree? A number of people on other sides have said that if we're leaving the process should be completed before the 2019 European Parliament Elections. Not an unreasonable request. Just as it will be a democratically-elected UK government that will ratify Article 50 that Lisbon created.
Though she might yet falter at the final hurdle.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwcl_ZehPtE
Doesn't mean I have to like it.
That video is devastating to any of the "advisory" or other excuses. Cameron said it strongly to warn the British people of the consequences of the vote - and we still voted Leave.
The "you've made a mistake, I'll override your decision" MPs are the ones making a terrible mistake.
For her to be beaten by both the fading Fillon and Macron, it would mean that they both need to be 26% plus in the first round. Considering the vote share is going to be diluted by the socialist candidate (probably Hamon) Melenchon (polling 13-14%) possibly Bayrou (if he runs) and one or two others on the ballot paper, the top three taking over 78% of the vote appears to be an unlikely scenario.
So yes, it COULD be Fillon v Macron if Le Pen's vote collapses in the first round in comparison to what all the polls have forecast, but it is unlikely.
And yes, I agree with you that it could well be Macron v Le Pen. In fact that is the likeliest outcome in my opinion, given Fillon's current problems and the mud that is likely to stick even if he is cleared.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/825017459530936320
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
...in kids pocket money
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-confirms-plans-to-exit-euratom/
We are leaving. Geddit? Leaving the EU.
But as every fuckwit is quick to point out, there was no manifesto for leave. No, you're right, amazingly the OFFICIALLY-DESIGNATED LEAVE CAMPAIGN was, apparently, not empowered to dictate what flavour of leave we would get.
So we are in limbo with all sides fighting for what they believe best for the UK. Apart, perhaps, from you, who seems so divorced from the realities of life in the UK that you only comment after your first sundowner in a country 5,000 miles away.
We are working out what is best for us as a non-EU member. As plenty of people who know what they are talking about will point out, non-EU members including Norway, Liechtenstein and home of equally virulent Leaver Max, Switzerland, are all members of the single market. So plenty of options for us.
Get with the programme.
Ultimately, May did the smart thing in her Lancaster House speech by shooting the Single Market fox (bear with me here!).
But she didn't (and couldn't) cover the future of the ECAA, EMA, EASA, Erasmus, ESA, ITER, CERN, ESO and all the other multilateral agreements we currently have under the umbrella of EU membership.
I want to add this. There's been a fair amount of sneering about 'low information' voters in the EUref - not necessarily on here, which is civilisation itself compared to Twitter etc. But it's clear that no one is an expert on the ramifications of the technical aspects of EU membership. We were all, to some extent, low information voters.
*edit* No mention of any other body apart from Euratom in:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0132/en/17132en.pdf
This is just more scaremongering bollocks.
But we already knew that.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/825014413287682050
Perhaps wishful thinking.
Perhaps not.
Thursday night on TF1 , Fillon sought to anticipate any future controversy. The presidential candidate thus acknowledged having paid two of his children lawyers of the time when he was senator of the Sarthe, between September 2005 and June 2007. Problem: his children were not yet graduates at that time ... Marie, 34, was sworn in on 14 November 2007, while Charles, enrolled in the New York Bar in 2010, joined that of Paris a year later.
A thing of beauty. Could watch it 5x a day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQYeSXpC244
Some of my left wing friends in Labour are beginning to despair at the party's position and find the new members a bit of a handful and waiting for them to leave in protest at the next moment.
The end indeed could come for Corbyn this year. It might be too late for Labour.
The French are crying out for change.
Is a Blairite centrist what they want?
But there is no way we can be sure. Plus there we are negotiating to get back to where we were before and all for what? We'll be negotiating to place ourselves under some EU jurisdiction or other when the whole point of Brexit, surely, was to free ourselves from such jurisdiction. Right?
When I lived in New York state there was no internet...
https://twitter.com/misselliemae/status/825030166753718273
A quarter of French want a Thatcherite, and about two thirds think that isn't what France needs.
And a about one in five think that Macon has what it takes.
That being said, I've met Emmanuel Macron and he's a very sharp cookie. Will he win? Probably not. But is it possible that those on the Left lend him their votes to avoid a Fillon - Le Pen run-off? Yes, it's possible.