politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s relaunch week ends with the LDs takeing a LAB council

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

felix said:

Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?

People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.

Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.

At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.

I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.

Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.

They mean:

(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.

And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.

If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.

People voted for the softest of Brexit's and if that isn't what they are going to get then I expect the Tories may be heading to parity with the Labour Party in the polls long before the next election comes round.

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/819840038829703168

Now that is another interesting by-election:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/stoke-on-trentcentral/

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)

If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.

Tristram Hunt: he was the future once.

The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.

Same day as Copeland maybe ?

Ally_B said:

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

felix said:

Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?

People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.

Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.

At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.

I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.

Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.

They mean:

(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.

And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.

If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.

People voted for the softest of Brexit's and if that isn't what they are going to get then I expect the Tories may be heading to parity with the Labour Party in the polls long before the next election comes round.

I don't think you can make that assertion, any more than you can say that the 48% are all raging Euro-federalists. People voted to leave the EU. Of course, subsequent polling shows that they'd prefer to do that with no impact on their finances, but I'd put that down to human nature .

If UKIP can't win stoke central, they may as well give up.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.

Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP

What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.

Almost exact opposite of LDs: polling rather well still nationally (11-14%) but seemingly incapable of winning a seat anywhere, anytime, and going backwards in almost all locals.

Y0kel said:

There appear to be more leaks forthcoming on the incoming Trump admins links with Russia, specifically new stories of the well trodden path about Mike Flynn.

Some background on Mike Flynn

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/17/13673280/mike-flynn-trump-new-national-security-adviser-russia-isis-obama-clinton-turkey

SimonStClare said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tristram Hunt: he was the future once.

The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.

Any Blairite Labour MP capable of landing a lucrative job, ala Tristram, will be gone by 2020.

And this is how new labour ends. Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

Ally_B said:

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

felix said:

Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?

People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.

Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.

At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.

I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.

Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.

They mean:

(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.

And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.

If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.

People voted for the softest of Brexit's and if that isn't what they are going to get then I expect the Tories may be heading to parity with the Labour Party in the polls long before the next election comes round.

"People voted for the softest of Brexit's"

Citation required

Who was the third man at the table with Marine Le Pen in Trump Tower? Two of them were Louis Aliot and George Lombardi. Reuters say she was with Ludovic De Danne, her adviser on European affairs, and the BBC cite Reuters as saying that he was the guy at the table. Other media around the world have followed suit.

They are all wrong. The guy is decades older than De Danne and has far less hair, and hair of a different colour. He obviously isn't De Danne. This is De Danne.

And this is the guy at the table, sitting diagonally opposite Le Pen. Look at his chin, the sallowness of the lower part of his face, and his choice of tiewear.

Could it possibly be the guy mentioned in this article, William J Diamond, who made a lot of money in real estate in New York, who met Le Pen with Lombardi as an intermediary in 2011, and who backed Marco Rubio in the 2016 US presidential race before switching his support to Donald Trump?

Diamond is on the left in this photo, and on the right in this one, walking alongside his friend Rudolph Giuliano. On his Facebook page, Mr Diamond refers to himself as a "kingmaker".

Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.

There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

I've just invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market.

Long term (like over ~35 years) it's likely to beat the FTSE, right?

Laying UKIP in Copeland might be a better return

Thanks for the headsup.

Just laid the ~£200 @ 10/1.

Good luck to whoever is on the other side of that bet.

The myth of the employment figures revealed?

Low paid men in part time work rises from 5% to 20%

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/819818430350163968

Tristram Hunt resigned - by election beckons

Pulpstar said:

Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.

There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North

Shame the election is in Stoke on Trent Central then?

Freggles said:

Slackbladder said:

SimonStClare said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tristram Hunt: he was the future once.

The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.

Any Blairite Labour MP capable of landing a lucrative job, ala Tristram, will be gone by 2020.

And this is how new labour ends. Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tristram Hunt: he was the future once.

The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.

Yup - going out with a whimper not a bang.

You two are creepy

I suppose "The Hollow Men" just comes naturally to mind!

AlastairMeeks said:

Tristram Hunt: he was the future once.

The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.

New Labour is dead, and now regenerating into another manifestation. We are seeing increasing numbers of by elections from this sort of resignation, and like in Copeland the replacement candidates local people campaigning on local issues.

In the medium term it will be good for the party, for those that survive the 2020 Corbyn meltdown.

Freggles said:

Pulpstar said:

Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.

There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North

Shame the election is in Stoke on Trent Central then?

Gah lol

An interesting by-election beckons; possibly more interesting than the Copeland one.

And Tristram Hunt just confirms that he is the lightweight idiot I always thought he was.

I bet the director of the V&A will pay more than being a backbench MP would.

No brainer for him really.

https://twitter.com/pa/status/819843988899397638

Essexit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

John_M said:

edmundintokyo said:

MarqueeMark said:

Roger said:

edmundintokyo said:

Roger said:

Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest

There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.

I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future

Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.

Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.

I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.

Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?

Of course, if there's one thing the LDs are consistent about it's their hypocrisy.

That's harsh. Politics is the art of the possible. Leaving aside purely domestic considerations, can you seriously envisage a re-application by the UK being considered by the rEU? As others have said, once we're out, we're out for a considerable period of time - presumably until my generation have died. The EEA might be achievable.

Mr. Claypole, but if Labour just loses several seats, and Corbyn stays, all it does is weaken the PLP.

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

felix said:

Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?

People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.

Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.

At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.

I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.

Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.

They mean:

(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.

And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.

That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.

Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.

Do or die for Nuttall. Got to stand, and got to win. If not in a solidly Leave seat, starting from 2nd, in the NW, then where and when?

I've always liked Tristram Hunt, like me he has a superb knowledge of history

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

felix said:

Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?

People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.

Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.

At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.

I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.

Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.

They mean:

(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.

And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.

That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.

Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.

She only wants the average Joe hear it. And they have.

It's us anoraks who want all the details.

Just to be mischievous, it's possible Stoke could well be a Labour-UKIP fight with the LDs mopping up the REMAIN vote and the Conservatives collapsing to fourth.

How we'd laugh !

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.

There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North

Labour hold.

Leavers won't turn out for a by-election in a seat like this, and the vote will split between Tories/UKIP.

Labour hold, LDs up to second, Kippers crying in their beer over lost deposit.

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Theresa May has enjoyed the longest opinion poll 'honeymoon' of any Conservative prime minister since the 1950s, new research has found.

Mrs May's premiership reaches the six-month mark on Friday, during which time her party has opened up an average poll lead over Labour of 14 points.

No Tory government in modern times has been in such a commanding position at this stage of a prime minister's time in office.


http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/pm-enjoys-longest-opinion-poll-honeymoon-of-any-tory-premier-since-1950s-11364136145000

She should enjoy it while she can. Surely Corbyn can't last much longer and then the phoney war is over.

Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be

I don't think any part of that's true.

Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.

Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.

Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.

However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Now that is another interesting by-election:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/stoke-on-trentcentral/

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)

If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.

Wow.

Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.

However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.

In a general, it could go Tory.

Ukip got to be a buy at 12%

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Do or die for Nuttall. Got to stand, and got to win. If not in a solidly Leave seat, starting from 2nd, in the NW, then where and when?

Stoke is Midlands. Nuttall is gunning for Leigh, isn't he, on the assumption that Burnham will win the Greater Manchester mayoralty?

Think it's time to actually muse on if this is a co-ordination series of resignations. What was it which James Bond said?

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/819847050552635392

Mr Sam,

"Ukip got to be a buy at 12% ."

It all depends on the state of Brexit.

If all is going smoothly, Ukip will struggle. If it looks like attempts are still being made to stop it, they could surge. A risky bet, but I'd assume the former.

Another Fen-Poly graduate who couldn't hack it...no wonder they never make PM....

John_M said:

Essexit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

John_M said:

edmundintokyo said:

MarqueeMark said:

Roger said:

edmundintokyo said:

Roger said:

Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest

There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.

I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future

Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.

Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.

I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.

Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?

Of course, if there's one thing the LDs are consistent about it's their hypocrisy.

That's harsh. Politics is the art of the possible. Leaving aside purely domestic considerations, can you seriously envisage a re-application by the UK being considered by the rEU? As others have said, once we're out, we're out for a considerable period of time - presumably until my generation have died. The EEA might be achievable.

All true, but it's still an arrangement they were disparaging about.

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

felix said:

Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?

People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.

Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.

At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.

I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.

Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.

They mean:

(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.

And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.

That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.

Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.

She only wants the average Joe hear it. And they have.

It's us anoraks who want all the details.

And each average Joe will see a different message within.

We're living in Schrödinger's Brexit; the waveforms have not collapsed and phrases such as 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'Red, White and Blue Brexit' satisfy people. But the waveforms have to collapse sometime, and when they do; when we finally know what those phrases mean, the chances are there will be many pi**ed off people. And that will hurt the Conservatives.

As an example, when Farage says "Brexit means Brexit", his meaning is not the one you give above.

(I actually think your comments are what the government want, and sensible. But it's far from what everyone who voted Brexit want.)

Eaxactly. Red white and blue Brexit could mean Brexit like the USA, Australia, Norway or Russia, or it could mean Brexit like Slovakia, France or Luxembourg!

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Labour beginning to resemble an ancient Mayan civilisation, sacrificing all their best. Feels like extinction is now a real possibility.

Tristram Hunt, best. Hahahahaha.

The fact that this hard right craven murdoch lickspittle rates him is a fantastic example of why need people like him out of the party

isam said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Now that is another interesting by-election:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/stoke-on-trentcentral/

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)

If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.

Wow.

Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.

However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.

In a general, it could go Tory.

Ukip got to be a buy at 12%

I'm buying UKIP at 12% as well on that.

I'd buy UKIP at 22.7% come to that.

Patrick said:

TGOHF said:

Problem for the Kippers is that Leave won - what does voting Kipper achieve ? Double Brexit ?

Kippers have a vital core mission - to make sure we do actually leave and to put pressure on May to ensure borders are controlled.
I think once A50 is triggered then we're gone one way or another. And then they have no raison d'etre.

Provided not only does the UK leave the single market but budget contributions end and there is a points system for migrants

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/819849175823241216

1-6 NOT the Tories looks the lay there to me - no value the bettor side so far as I can see.

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Now that is another interesting by-election:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/stoke-on-trentcentral/

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)

If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.

Wow.

Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.

However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.

In a general, it could go Tory.

Ukip got to be a buy at 12%

I'm buying UKIP at 12% as well on that.

I'd buy UKIP at 22.7% come to that.

Is the 9-4 tempting you ?

JackW said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/819847050552635392

The reverse being the case should OGH ever leave the yellow peril ..

Hurrah!
Welcome back.

I have to say I'm generally in @JWisemann's camp on this. If the only purpose that Tristram Hunt had in being in Parliament was to advance Tristram Hunt's career then Labour is probably (given its current ideological ferment) better off without him.

If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.

What does the Labour right actually stand for?