Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.
People voted for the softest of Brexit's and if that isn't what they are going to get then I expect the Tories may be heading to parity with the Labour Party in the polls long before the next election comes round.
I suspect the Liberal policy is a stop-gap measure. Once we leave, the policy will begin to look dated, and later ... total folly.
We'll be a beggar hoping for scraps. Forced to join the Euro, embrace federalism and pay real money every year. Billions that opponents will say comes straight off the NHS budget. Good luck with rebutting that one.
Our membership of the EU is dead, it is extinct, it breathes no more (add in more of the dead parrot sketch).
In the short term, the policy will give false hope and a reason to believe for the grieving Europhiles, but they know, deep in their hearts, that it's over.
Nah. Following hard Brexit, LD policy will shift to an EEA arrangement, not least because the EU27 would not countenance an EU application for a couple of decades. They do not want us to continue a Euro hokey cokey either.
@IsabelHardman: Tristram Hunt, another Labour MP whose seat voted Leave and who has hard left trouble, is to quit Parliament.
I know the hard left will disagree but partisan politics aside, Hunt is a huge loss.
He's intelligent, thoughtful, calm, good on telly, super presentable and comes from a wing of the Labour party that has great traction in the marginals.
All parties are coalitions but it seems Labour don't want to be one.
@IsabelHardman: Tristram Hunt, another Labour MP whose seat voted Leave and who has hard left trouble, is to quit Parliament.
I know the hard left will disagree but partisan politics aside, Hunt is a huge loss.
He's intelligent, thoughtful, calm, good on telly, super presentable and comes from a wing of the Labour party that has great traction in the marginals.
All parties are coalitions but it seems Labour don't want to be one.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.
People voted for the softest of Brexit's and if that isn't what they are going to get then I expect the Tories may be heading to parity with the Labour Party in the polls long before the next election comes round.
I don't think you can make that assertion, any more than you can say that the 48% are all raging Euro-federalists. People voted to leave the EU. Of course, subsequent polling shows that they'd prefer to do that with no impact on their finances, but I'd put that down to human nature .
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.
Almost exact opposite of LDs: polling rather well still nationally (11-14%) but seemingly incapable of winning a seat anywhere, anytime, and going backwards in almost all locals.
There appear to be more leaks forthcoming on the incoming Trump admins links with Russia, specifically new stories of the well trodden path about Mike Flynn.
I think this is good for my Copeland position, UKIP will surely fling the kitchen sink at Stoke on Trent North
Stoke-on-Trent North 0.7212336987 <- 5th most leave seat in the country Kingston upon Hull East 0.7263315426 Castle Point 0.7269939242 South Basildon and East Thurrock 0.7307870602 Boston and Skegness 0.7496077813
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.
People voted for the softest of Brexit's and if that isn't what they are going to get then I expect the Tories may be heading to parity with the Labour Party in the polls long before the next election comes round.
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Yup, and whatever they end up advocating rejoining will probably actually be an easier sell than defending the EU. They'll be in the position that the skeptics have been in over the last 20 years, where the government has to make the actual deals with inconsiderate foreigners who insist on having their own opinions and interests, and the LibDems can denounce the deal and demand a better one.
Nah - not for 25 years at least.
You really, really, really underestimate the residual antipathy there will be to the EU. It will last 50 years if they play silly beggars over the negotiations of exit.
That's a very good point that I hadn't fully considered. Verhofstadt has already said that he intends to be very tough and go on the offensive. A couple of years of negotiating shenanigans will make selling the EU ( or any of its associated institutions) very difficult.
I thought he planned to offer us associate EU citizenship. An excellent idea, I thought, for all the 48%.
Who was the third man at the table with Marine Le Pen in Trump Tower? Two of them were Louis Aliot and George Lombardi. Reuters say she was with Ludovic De Danne, her adviser on European affairs, and the BBC cite Reuters as saying that he was the guy at the table. Other media around the world have followed suit.
They are all wrong. The guy is decades older than De Danne and has far less hair, and hair of a different colour. He obviously isn't De Danne. This is De Danne.
And this is the guy at the table, sitting diagonally opposite Le Pen. Look at his chin, the sallowness of the lower part of his face, and his choice of tiewear.
Could it possibly be the guy mentioned in this article, William J Diamond, who made a lot of money in real estate in New York, who met Le Pen with Lombardi as an intermediary in 2011, and who backed Marco Rubio in the 2016 US presidential race before switching his support to Donald Trump?
Diamond is on the left in this photo, and on the right in this one, walking alongside his friend Rudolph Giuliano. On his Facebook page, Mr Diamond refers to himself as a "kingmaker".
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
The thing about Labour's situation is, I don't get what the *left* think they're getting out of keeping Corbyn and losing elections.
I mean, I know there are people out there who only get their news from social media and don't believe in polls and their friends only share results when they when win a parish council, but there must be a bunch of reasonably sophisticated people at the centre; What's their game-plan?
Tide is turning against Corbyn - I think the fact that he went for this reset is evidence his team sees that also.
But the rebels massively massively messed up by going too soon. It was silly to think the electorate would have changed its mind in under a year having given Corbyn such a landslide previously.
If they'd just given at least a pretence of support - ditched the anonymous briefings - then they could argue they gave him a chance.
They had no option but to go against him when they did. They could see what the public couldn't and they realized that if they went along with him they'd all be tarred with the same brush. Whats more he was making life for the PLP impossible. By now the whole party would be in meltdown.
As it is when the leadership goes there will be a salvagable part of the party still in place to take over
I really think that by going against him when they did and in the way they did they have prolonged Corbyn.
They've also created a narrative of betrayal and party coups which will last for a long time and make it harder to unify in future.
If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.
Wow.
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Shame the election is in Stoke on Trent Central then?
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?
Of course, if there's one thing the LDs are consistent about it's their hypocrisy.
The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.
New Labour is dead, and now regenerating into another manifestation. We are seeing increasing numbers of by elections from this sort of resignation, and like in Copeland the replacement candidates local people campaigning on local issues.
In the medium term it will be good for the party, for those that survive the 2020 Corbyn meltdown.
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Shame the election is in Stoke on Trent Central then?
Looks like those of us who see the clearing out of principle-free parachuted careerists from the party as the vital first step in renewing Labour are winning without firing a shot.
This looks like a strategy to me. A trickle of resignations leading to a drip drip of election result humiliations for JC. They are trying to educate their own electorate. Unfortunately the duck is already dead.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?
Of course, if there's one thing the LDs are consistent about it's their hypocrisy.
That's harsh. Politics is the art of the possible. Leaving aside purely domestic considerations, can you seriously envisage a re-application by the UK being considered by the rEU? As others have said, once we're out, we're out for a considerable period of time - presumably until my generation have died. The EEA might be achievable.
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
In a general, it could go Tory.
I can't remember a Parliament where so many MPs have resigned simply because they got other jobs or were fed up. We've had our share of scandals and deaths and that's another matter but the likes of Reed, Hunt and Cameron have all thrown in the towel within less than two years - extraordinary.
I assume Labour will hold Stoke and Copeland on the same day and that will be May 4th. Will a poor Labour performance be masked by the County Council elections or vice versa ?
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.
Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Labour hold.
Leavers won't turn out for a by-election in a seat like this, and the vote will split between Tories/UKIP.
An interesting by-election beckons; possibly more interesting than the Copeland one.
And Tristram Hunt just confirms that he is the lightweight idiot I always thought he was.
Well, as a Tory, I have always looked fondly on Tristram. Sensible bloke, and, crucially, he was not willing to compromise what is best for the people in this country for party political gain. This I see as an extension of that ethos. OK he didn't stay and fight but for him the war would be another 5-10 years on the losing side. That is asking a lot.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.
Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.
She only wants the average Joe hear it. And they have.
Just to be mischievous, it's possible Stoke could well be a Labour-UKIP fight with the LDs mopping up the REMAIN vote and the Conservatives collapsing to fourth.
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Shame the election is in Stoke on Trent Central then?
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Labour hold.
Leavers won't turn out for a by-election in a seat like this, and the vote will split between Tories/UKIP.
Labour hold, LDs up to second, Kippers crying in their beer over lost deposit.
She should enjoy it while she can. Surely Corbyn can't last much longer and then the phoney war is over.
Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be
I don't think any part of that's true.
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.
If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.
Wow.
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
If the Labour right were any good at politics this is how they would have opposed Corbyn. Kept quiet, got on with non-contentious stuff and triggered a steady stream of by elections. That would have caused a lot less damage to the Labour brand, kept them in positions where they could build up a team that could take over when an opportunity arose and above all made it clear that Corbyn owned any failure. As it is, the Tories are just being given an easy run.
@PolhomeEditor: Spokesman for Corbyn: "Jeremy would like to thank Tristram Hunt for his service to Stoke Central and Labour. He wishes him well for future."
@PolhomeEditor: Labour MP on Tristram Hunt: "It's his dream job and I don't blame him for going. Good luck to him and God help the rest of us."
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.
Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.
She only wants the average Joe hear it. And they have.
It's us anoraks who want all the details.
And each average Joe will see a different message within.
We're living in Schrödinger's Brexit; the waveforms have not collapsed and phrases such as 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'Red, White and Blue Brexit' satisfy people. But the waveforms have to collapse sometime, and when they do; when we finally know what those phrases mean, the chances are there will be many pi**ed off people. And that will hurt the Conservatives.
As an example, when Farage says "Brexit means Brexit", his meaning is not the one you give above.
(I actually think your comments are what the government want, and sensible. But it's far from what everyone who voted Brexit want.)
If all is going smoothly, Ukip will struggle. If it looks like attempts are still being made to stop it, they could surge. A risky bet, but I'd assume the former.
Hull East requires a bigger swing for UKIP and there are less Tories to squeeze, in addition Labour is over 50% there whereas they start at under 40% here.
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Labour hold.
Leavers won't turn out for a by-election in a seat like this, and the vote will split between Tories/UKIP.
Labour hold, LDs up to second, Kippers crying in their beer over lost deposit.
The LDs were second in the seat in 2010 so they need to repeat the performance to show real progress, UKIP were runners up last time, the Tories were third in Stoke even when they won a majority nationally so will focus on Copeland. On present polling though Labour should hold with a reduced majority but the Tories could take second
I bet the director of the V&A will pay more than being a backbench MP would.
No brainer for him really.
Well quite, - a prestigious job for an academic and mingling once more with posh society, more importantly he’ll be back in London and on BBC 4 before you know it…
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?
Of course, if there's one thing the LDs are consistent about it's their hypocrisy.
That's harsh. Politics is the art of the possible. Leaving aside purely domestic considerations, can you seriously envisage a re-application by the UK being considered by the rEU? As others have said, once we're out, we're out for a considerable period of time - presumably until my generation have died. The EEA might be achievable.
All true, but it's still an arrangement they were disparaging about.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
That's fair enough, but she needs to enunciate it as not everyone agrees with that interpretation. It's also a rather mangled and long-winded narrative.
Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.
She only wants the average Joe hear it. And they have.
It's us anoraks who want all the details.
And each average Joe will see a different message within.
We're living in Schrödinger's Brexit; the waveforms have not collapsed and phrases such as 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'Red, White and Blue Brexit' satisfy people. But the waveforms have to collapse sometime, and when they do; when we finally know what those phrases mean, the chances are there will be many pi**ed off people. And that will hurt the Conservatives.
As an example, when Farage says "Brexit means Brexit", his meaning is not the one you give above.
(I actually think your comments are what the government want, and sensible. But it's far from what everyone who voted Brexit want.)
Eaxactly. Red white and blue Brexit could mean Brexit like the USA, Australia, Norway or Russia, or it could mean Brexit like Slovakia, France or Luxembourg!
Problem for the Kippers is that Leave won - what does voting Kipper achieve ? Double Brexit ?
Kippers have a vital core mission - to make sure we do actually leave and to put pressure on May to ensure borders are controlled. I think once A50 is triggered then we're gone one way or another. And then they have no raison d'etre.
If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.
Wow.
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
Problem for the Kippers is that Leave won - what does voting Kipper achieve ? Double Brexit ?
Kippers have a vital core mission - to make sure we do actually leave and to put pressure on May to ensure borders are controlled. I think once A50 is triggered then we're gone one way or another. And then they have no raison d'etre.
Provided not only does the UK leave the single market but budget contributions end and there is a points system for migrants
If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.
Wow.
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
Problem for the Kippers is that Leave won - what does voting Kipper achieve ? Double Brexit ?
Kippers have a vital core mission - to make sure we do actually leave and to put pressure on May to ensure borders are controlled. I think once A50 is triggered then we're gone one way or another. And then they have no raison d'etre.
True but May has shown no sign of wavering - if the B/E was mid May and A50 hadn't been triggered then Kippers may be able to stir up the pitchforks. Pre end of March ? I'm not convinced they can start a fire.
In 2010 the Lib Dems polled nearly 22% and finished second in Stoke-on-Trent Central, if they replicate their local/Richmond performances they could finish second.
I have to say I'm generally in @JWisemann's camp on this. If the only purpose that Tristram Hunt had in being in Parliament was to advance Tristram Hunt's career then Labour is probably (given its current ideological ferment) better off without him.
If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.
She should enjoy it while she can. Surely Corbyn can't last much longer and then the phoney war is over.
Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be
I don't think any part of that's true.
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.
Labour members made clear they will only accept a Corbynista at the next election by a more than 60% landslide, until that is tested at a general election they will not change their minds and maybe not even then
Comments
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/stoke-on-trentcentral/
2015 Result:
Conservative: 7008 (22.5%)
Labour: 12220 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 1296 (4.2%)
Green: 1123 (3.6%)
UKIP: 7041 (22.7%)
Independent: 2120 (6.8%)
Others: 276 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 5179 (16.7%)
If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.
He's intelligent, thoughtful, calm, good on telly, super presentable and comes from a wing of the Labour party that has great traction in the marginals.
All parties are coalitions but it seems Labour don't want to be one.
The Labour right talent is giving up rather than standing and fighting.
http://www.vox.com/2016/11/17/13673280/mike-flynn-trump-new-national-security-adviser-russia-isis-obama-clinton-turkey
Stoke-on-Trent North 0.7212336987 <- 5th most leave seat in the country
Kingston upon Hull East 0.7263315426
Castle Point 0.7269939242
South Basildon and East Thurrock 0.7307870602
Boston and Skegness 0.7496077813
Given the super soaraway LD revival , anything other than a win for them is a blow.
Citation required
They are all wrong. The guy is decades older than De Danne and has far less hair, and hair of a different colour. He obviously isn't De Danne. This is De Danne.
And this is the guy at the table, sitting diagonally opposite Le Pen. Look at his chin, the sallowness of the lower part of his face, and his choice of tiewear.
Could it possibly be the guy mentioned in this article, William J Diamond, who made a lot of money in real estate in New York, who met Le Pen with Lombardi as an intermediary in 2011, and who backed Marco Rubio in the 2016 US presidential race before switching his support to Donald Trump?
Diamond is on the left in this photo, and on the right in this one, walking alongside his friend Rudolph Giuliano. On his Facebook page, Mr Diamond refers to himself as a "kingmaker".
There is no juicier or more viable Labour target in the entire country for UKIP than Stoke-On-Trent North
Just laid the ~£200 @ 10/1.
Good luck to whoever is on the other side of that bet.
They've also created a narrative of betrayal and party coups which will last for a long time and make it harder to unify in future.
Low paid men in part time work rises from 5% to 20%
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/819818430350163968
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
In a general, it could go Tory.
In the medium term it will be good for the party, for those that survive the 2020 Corbyn meltdown.
What chances for Cooper, Kendell and Ummna all stepping down before 2020 or at least not contesting their seats?
And Tristram Hunt just confirms that he is the lightweight idiot I always thought he was.
No brainer for him really.
If so, it is at least a better idea than Owen Smith. Then again anything is a better idea than Owen Smith.
I assume Labour will hold Stoke and Copeland on the same day and that will be May 4th. Will a poor Labour performance be masked by the County Council elections or vice versa ?
Reading the runes is irrelevant; until the meaning is made clear the phrases can mean whatever people want.
Leavers won't turn out for a by-election in a seat like this, and the vote will split between Tories/UKIP.
It's us anoraks who want all the details.
How we'd laugh !
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/819845019381202944
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.
@PolhomeEditor: Labour MP on Tristram Hunt: "It's his dream job and I don't blame him for going. Good luck to him and God help the rest of us."
We're living in Schrödinger's Brexit; the waveforms have not collapsed and phrases such as 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'Red, White and Blue Brexit' satisfy people. But the waveforms have to collapse sometime, and when they do; when we finally know what those phrases mean, the chances are there will be many pi**ed off people. And that will hurt the Conservatives.
As an example, when Farage says "Brexit means Brexit", his meaning is not the one you give above.
(I actually think your comments are what the government want, and sensible. But it's far from what everyone who voted Brexit want.)
"Ukip got to be a buy at 12% ."
It all depends on the state of Brexit.
If all is going smoothly, Ukip will struggle. If it looks like attempts are still being made to stop it, they could surge. A risky bet, but I'd assume the former.
I think once A50 is triggered then we're gone one way or another. And then they have no raison d'etre.
The fact that this hard right craven murdoch lickspittle rates him is a fantastic example of why need people like him out of the party
I'd buy UKIP at 22.7% come to that.
Hope all is well.
Welcome back.
If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.
What does the Labour right actually stand for?