Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?
Of course, if there's one thing the LDs are consistent about it's their hypocrisy.
That's harsh. Politics is the art of the possible. Leaving aside purely domestic considerations, can you seriously envisage a re-application by the UK being considered by the rEU? As others have said, once we're out, we're out for a considerable period of time - presumably until my generation have died. The EEA might be achievable.
All true, but it's still an arrangement they were disparaging about.
Of course it is; second best at best, but half a loaf etc.
I have to say I'm generally in @JWisemann's camp on this. If the only purpose that Tristram Hunt had in being in Parliament was to advance Tristram Hunt's career then Labour is probably (given its current ideological ferment) better off without him.
If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.
What does the Labour right actually stand for?
Isn't his seat being lost to boundary changes though?
Id be extremely suprised if we see the lib dems make this kind of progress against labour more than once in a blue moon. Merely a local thing, the previous councillor clearly neglected his duties. Id be willing to bet a significant sum the Dems do well against the Tories in May but not Labour, despite the wishful thinking froth from the PB Tories. And my returns last year were 3300%.
In cse anyone hadnt forgotten the Lib Dems have 9 MPs. It's for a reason - 70% of their voters considered them abject traitors to their own supposed ideals. I doubt their memories are that short.
I was a Labour member pre-Corbnyn and I think you could be wrong. At the moment the odds are certainly against it but if Corbyn remains leader for the next 4 years I believe we could well reach a tipping point where Labour looks so unelectable that we could see a collapse in the Labour vote in England and Wales on a par with what happened in Scotland.
Before the SNP wipeout of Labour in Scotland I probably would have agreed with you, now I am really not so sure. Many people will forget the coalition by the way, I did my fair share of ranting about the Lib Dems at the time but would probably vote for them if there was a GE tomorrow.
Fascinating. The Labour right appears to be giving up the will to fight. With Hunt gone and Umunna silent, and on the other side Clarke going and Osborne silent, the centre - which was the much-coveted battleground of politics just a few years ago - is being left to the Lib Dems by default.
My grandfather used to say whenever he was surprised (eg having an ace trumped at whist by a grandson) "well I'll go to Stoke". The phrase seems apt this morning.
Id be extremely suprised if we see the lib dems make this kind of progress against labour more than once in a blue moon. Merely a local thing, the previous councillor clearly neglected his duties. Id be willing to bet a significant sum the Dems do well against the Tories in May but not Labour, despite the wishful thinking froth from the PB Tories. And my returns last year were 3300%.
In cse anyone hadnt forgotten the Lib Dems have 9 MPs. It's for a reason - 70% of their voters considered them abject traitors to their own supposed ideals. I doubt their memories are that short.
The one thing the LibDems can take from these by-election results is that people are willing to vote tactically for them again.
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 2,121 (55%), UKIP 1,003 (26%), Conservative 607 (16%), Liberal Democrat 135 (4%)
Lib Dem was NOT the tactical or any other vote here.
Anyone waking up to the headline that Labour had lost this ward would have put money on UKIP having gained it. UKIP in 2nd place, iconic Brexit territory etc etc. This is a very interesting result but only one local by-election of course.
Fascinating. The Labour right appears to be giving up the will to fight. With Hunt gone and Umunna silent, and on the other side Clarke going and Osborne silent, the centre - which was the much-coveted battleground of politics just a few years ago - is being left to the Lib Dems by default.
Rubbish. We have the most centrist PM since Major.
The reverse being the case should OGH ever leave the yellow peril ..
Hurrah! Welcome back.
Thank you.
My deferred autumn medical intervention aka the Annual JackW Nurses Escape and Evasion Competition was a total success and failure depending on the contestants viewpoint.
She should enjoy it while she can. Surely Corbyn can't last much longer and then the phoney war is over.
Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be
I don't think any part of that's true.
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.
Labour members made clear they will only accept a Corbynista at the next election by a more than 60% landslide, until that is tested at a general election they will not change their minds and maybe not even then
Did they? Like I say, there's well over three years to go and a lot of minds can be changed in that time. So much rides on results. If Labour hold Copeland and Stoke with relative ease (which is quite possible: similar noises were made about them being under threat in Oldham and they won comfortably), then it becomes much harder to justify moving against him. That said, with national polling as it currently is, the May local elections will be another tough challenge.
Do or die for Nuttall. Got to stand, and got to win. If not in a solidly Leave seat, starting from 2nd, in the NW, then where and when?
Stoke is Midlands. Nuttall is gunning for Leigh, isn't he, on the assumption that Burnham will win the Greater Manchester mayoralty?
Halfway up the M6 between Birmingham and Manchester
Yes, in Staffordshire, in the Midlands. Northern end of the midlands, admittedly, but still there.
Funnily enough when I was at university I read an academic piece on how the Potteries consider themselves to be their own distinct identity to either the North West or the West Midlands. When I go there for football, they do seem to be in their own little world. Perhaps we need a reporter to go there for the by election like on Transfer Deadline Day:
If UKIP are going to make progress in Labour heartlands, this is the sort of seat they've got to be doing it in.
Wow.
Difficult to read. It could go three-way marginal.
However, on current trends, I'd expect Lib Dems to lift (possibly to 20-22%), UKIP to slip to 10-12%, Tories to advance a bit to 26-27%, but Labour to slip to around 31-32%. Others ~ 12-14%.
In a general, it could go Tory.
Ukip got to be a buy at 12%
I'm buying UKIP at 12% as well on that.
I'd buy UKIP at 22.7% come to that.
For a GE the independent did well at 6.8%. Seems a genuine local advocate, angry about how the Labour party turned its back on the locals by dropping Hunt into a safe seat.
The reverse being the case should OGH ever leave the yellow peril ..
Hurrah! Welcome back.
Thank you.
My deferred autumn medical intervention aka the Annual JackW Nurses Escape and Evasion Competition was a total success and failure depending on the contestants viewpoint.
Do or die for Nuttall. Got to stand, and got to win. If not in a solidly Leave seat, starting from 2nd, in the NW, then where and when?
Stoke is Midlands. Nuttall is gunning for Leigh, isn't he, on the assumption that Burnham will win the Greater Manchester mayoralty?
Halfway up the M6 between Birmingham and Manchester
Yes, in Staffordshire, in the Midlands. Northern end of the midlands, admittedly, but still there.
Funnily enough when I was at university I read an academic piece on how the Potteries consider themselves to be their own distinct identity to either the North West or the West Midlands. When I go there for football, they do seem to be in their own little world. Perhaps we need a reporter to go there for the by election like on Transfer Deadline Day:
Tristram Hunt's resignation letter is astonishingly badly written:
...I also believe the programe which myself, Kevin Brennan and the Shadow Education team developed...
and incoherent:
As I enter a new role as a public servant, I will be leaving partisan politics behind me. ... I will always be Labour..
It's interesting that he feels the Pottery's fortunes reached a nadir in the early 2000's, i.e. under New Labour, and have been good for the last six and a half years, under coalition and Conservative governments.
She should enjoy it while she can. Surely Corbyn can't last much longer and then the phoney war is over.
Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be
I don't think any part of that's true.
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.
Labour members made clear they will only accept a Corbynista at the next election by a more than 60% landslide, until that is tested at a general election they will not change their minds and maybe not even then
Did they? Like I say, there's well over three years to go and a lot of minds can be changed in that time. So much rides on results. If Labour hold Copeland and Stoke with relative ease (which is quite possible: similar noises were made about them being under threat in Oldham and they won comfortably), then it becomes much harder to justify moving against him. That said, with national polling as it currently is, the May local elections will be another tough challenge.
They are voting on ideology not electability, unless Labour lose Copeland, Stoke and come third in the County Council elections I cannot see much chance of a credible challenge to Corbyn and he would probably be re elected even then
I have to say I'm generally in @JWisemann's camp on this. If the only purpose that Tristram Hunt had in being in Parliament was to advance Tristram Hunt's career then Labour is probably (given its current ideological ferment) better off without him.
If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.
What does the Labour right actually stand for?
I know nothing of Hunt other than that which is in the media, but there does come a time where one thinks; surely life can be better than this. Hunt, in his early 40’s is perhaps a little early in thinking this, of course.
I have to say I'm generally in @JWisemann's camp on this. If the only purpose that Tristram Hunt had in being in Parliament was to advance Tristram Hunt's career then Labour is probably (given its current ideological ferment) better off without him.
If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.
What does the Labour right actually stand for?
Delivering social democracy. It seems that they have accepted that it's not a viable prospect for over a decade.
Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be
I don't think any part of that's true.
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is an early election, it'll be this May/June. Brexit negotiations rule anything out after that unless extraordinary circumstances force it, such as the Cons losing 15+ seats. So if 2018 is likely to be GE-free, that would be a better moment to challenge, giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself. But it does require a PM-credible candidate coming forward. Creating all the disruption of a challenge has to be worth the benefits the change would bring.
Labour members made clear they will only accept a Corbynista at the next election by a more than 60% landslide, until that is tested at a general election they will not change their minds and maybe not even then
Did they? Like I say, there's well over three years to go and a lot of minds can be changed in that time. So much rides on results. If Labour hold Copeland and Stoke with relative ease (which is quite possible: similar noises were made about them being under threat in Oldham and they won comfortably), then it becomes much harder to justify moving against him. That said, with national polling as it currently is, the May local elections will be another tough challenge.
They are voting on ideology not electability, unless Labour lose Copeland, Stoke and come third in the County Council elections I cannot see much chance of a credible challenge to Corbyn and he would probably be re elected even then
The hard core Corbynites are but Corbyn's support came from a wider coalition than just that, including people like NickP, who in his (and presumably, their) time, were enthusiastic Blair-backers. It wouldn't take many of them to peel off to make Corbyn's position precarious. Of course, they have to remain members of the party to count.
I have to say I'm generally in @JWisemann's camp on this. If the only purpose that Tristram Hunt had in being in Parliament was to advance Tristram Hunt's career then Labour is probably (given its current ideological ferment) better off without him.
If he had an ideological reason for being in politics, he should be finding a way to fight for his cause. It seems that actually fighting for any such cause is beneath him.
What does the Labour right actually stand for?
He stands for what NPXMPX2 might call the "hard right" of the party. They have had their party taken away from them and, courtesy of Momentum, it ain't coming back ahead of a shellacking at the next GE. That is a lot to ask of an MP to be fighting against something for such a time, and yet at the same time, on DP, WatO, Pienaar, etc, be expected to endorse a position he is hugely at odds with.
My grandfather used to say whenever he was surprised (eg having an ace trumped at whist by a grandson) "well I'll go to Stoke". The phrase seems apt this morning.
My grandmother, apropos of anything in particular, used to say: "now is not the time for logic".
Corbyn's landslide reelection by party members ensured he is there until the general election if he wants to be
I don't think any part of that's true.
Firstly, it wasn't a landslide; it was probably slightly closer than 2015, if you'd run the preferences through to a final round of two candidates.
Secondly, the 2016 contest was against Own Smith who was, frankly, crap. I could well understand Lab members not wanting to put him into the leadership, even at the price of keeping Corbyn there.
Thirdly, there's a long time to go and opinion already seems to be shifting against Corbyn. At this stage in the 2005-10 parliament, Blair hadn't even gone yet - Brown's succession, never mind all the plots against him, lay well into the future.
However, I do think that there can only be one more challenge against him this parliament as you lose credibility if you keep trying and keep losing. For that reason, I doubt it'll be this year. If there is ge would bring.
Labour members made clear they will only accept a Corbynista at the next election by a more than 60% landslide, until that is tested at a general election they will not change their minds and maybe not even then
Did they? Like I say, there's well over three years to go and a lot of minds can be changed in that time. So much rides on results. If Labour hold Copeland and Stoke with relative ease (which is quite possible: similar noises were made about them being under threat in Oldham and they won comfortably), then it becomes much harder to justify moving against him. That said, with national polling as it currently is, the May local elections will be another tough challenge.
They are voting on ideology not electability, unless Labour lose Copeland, Stoke and come third in the County Council elections I cannot see much chance of a credible challenge to Corbyn and he would probably be re elected even then
The hard core Corbynites are but Corbyn's support came from a wider coalition than just that, including people like NickP, who in his (and presumably, their) time, were enthusiastic Blair-backers. It wouldn't take many of them to peel off to make Corbyn's position precarious. Of course, they have to remain members of the party to count.
Id be extremely suprised if we see the lib dems make this kind of progress against labour more than once in a blue moon. Merely a local thing, the previous councillor clearly neglected his duties. Id be willing to bet a significant sum the Dems do well against the Tories in May but not Labour, despite the wishful thinking froth from the PB Tories. And my returns last year were 3300%.
In cse anyone hadnt forgotten the Lib Dems have 9 MPs. It's for a reason - 70% of their voters considered them abject traitors to their own supposed ideals. I doubt their memories are that short.
The one thing the LibDems can take from these by-election results is that people are willing to vote tactically for them again.
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 2,121 (55%), UKIP 1,003 (26%), Conservative 607 (16%), Liberal Democrat 135 (4%)
Lib Dem was NOT the tactical or any other vote here.
Anyone waking up to the headline that Labour had lost this ward would have put money on UKIP having gained it. UKIP in 2nd place, iconic Brexit territory etc etc. This is a very interesting result but only one local by-election of course.
By my reckoning there have been 8 by elections in 2017 - 2 district/borough and 6 parish. Of these the Lib Dems have won 6 - Sunderland, Three Rivers, Ilkley, Alsager, Chorleywood, and Arlesey. The Conservative held in Thetford and Labour in Horden.
Comments
He didn't go to Oxford.
Once a party starts to eat itself, it's in trouble. Labour need another Kinnock to clear out the Trot parasites before they becomes saprophytic..
Before the SNP wipeout of Labour in Scotland I probably would have agreed with you, now I am really not so sure. Many people will forget the coalition by the way, I did my fair share of ranting about the Lib Dems at the time but would probably vote for them if there was a GE tomorrow.
Anyone waking up to the headline that Labour had lost this ward would have put money on UKIP having gained it. UKIP in 2nd place, iconic Brexit territory etc etc. This is a very interesting result but only one local by-election of course.
@MSmithsonPB: Just got 50/1 on the LDs in Stoke Central with Ladbrokes. They've historical strength in the seat & were 2nd at GE2005 & GE2010
My deferred autumn medical intervention aka the Annual JackW Nurses Escape and Evasion Competition was a total success and failure depending on the contestants viewpoint.
I left smiling ....
A few years back Cambridge station signboards had a message underneath, so they read: "Cambridge, home of Anglia Ruskin University".
You know, because Anglia Ruskin is the first place that comes to mind when you think of higher education in Cambridge.
Edit:
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/BNGMDB/platform-sign-at-cambridge-railway-station-advertising-anglia-ruskin-BNGMDB.jpg
...I also believe the programe which myself, Kevin Brennan and the Shadow Education team developed...
and incoherent:
As I enter a new role as a public servant, I will be leaving partisan politics behind me.
...
I will always be Labour..
http://i.imgur.com/gG0aFSS.jpg
https://pitsnpots.co.uk/2010/04/mark-breeze-indpendent-candidate-stoke-trent-south/
Labour may well recapture these votes if they continue to pick local canditates rooted in their areas, as in Copeland.
@holyroodmandy: Wonder if @edballs is considering his options @TristramHuntMP
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/elliotwagland/status/819848789880111104
The phrase seems quite apt for the past year.