Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
There appear to be more leaks forthcoming on the incoming Trump admins links with Russia, specifically new stories of the well trodden path about Mike Flynn.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that." Well the second placed party was virulently anti-EU.the fourth placed party was the most pro-EU of the lot and they leapt from 4% to 45%. So, maybe a teensy bit of evidence?
Not only are the L.Dems the most pro-EU but they're the party to be most concerned about threats to civil liberties. Meanwhile, our governing party seems delighted to approve heavy handed surveillance of the citizen by the state.
I'm not sure what Labour's present policy is on the snooper's charter but Blair/Brown were on a par with May and even Cameron rushed through the EAW in 2014.
Maybe this appeals to a few percent of voters, at least ...?
Obviously sad, hope it doesn't happen, etc. However the following:
Emergency services were putting an evacuation plan into action in Jaywick, near Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, with police officers going door-to-door to inform residents of the evacuation beginning at 07:00 GMT on Friday. Leaflets warned residents their properties "could be flooded by sea water up to a depth of three metres".
made me wonder if the residents of Jaywick would want to go back after he evacuation ...
Look on the bright side, it could not look any worse after being hit by 3 meteres of water than it does beforehand.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
If this was totally down to local factors then you would have assumed that second place last time UKIP would have been the main beneficiaries.
Why? UKIP have been crap almost everywhere since the 2015GE.
Indeed it takes some organisation to take advantage of local factors and UKIP don't have that.
Of course if he makes it to the next General Election then Corbyn is going to be a local factor almost everywhere ...
I think that for the LDs to make a real national recovery to 25+ seats the Tories would need to be on their way out, in favour of Labour, with the Labour leader as preferred PM so they could tactically squeeze the Tory seats to pick up a big number.
That might happen in GE2020 if Corbyn is replaced and Brexit/May turn out to be a total disaster, but it's rather unlikely.
More likely: the LDs make modest advances of 4-8 seats, but 2025GE could be very interesting for them.
I wonder whether Remainers are voting solely on the basis of the Referendum whereas Leavers having won aren't?
What's more Remainers have only one choice of party whereas Leavers have several
To most Remainers that I know there is nothing in British politics which comes close in terms of importance which inevitably means voting Lib Dem.
No.
It would be an awful mistake for any of us to assume, based on a sample consisting of our own social circle, that all voters are both massively politically engaged and determined to fight trench warfare over this referendum.
I reckon that most of the people who voted last June did so pragmatically, accepted the result immediately (even if they were on the losing side and thought it misguided,) and moved on.
I also suspect that many, and probably most, of the "48%" are not obsessed by Europe. They don't sit at the breakfast table each morning, thumbing through their copies of The New European whilst discussing how Article 50 might be bogged down in the House of Lords, the chances of engineering a second vote, and waxing lyrically about the lonely heroism of Gina Miller or Jolyon Maugham.
Certainly most centre-right Remain voters are liable to be much more concerned about any remote prospect of Jeremy Corbyn laying a hand on the levers of power than they are about leaving the EU. Especially given that the next general election is liable to take place in 2020, and after the country has already left the EU, they'll be vastly more interested in electing a halfway sensible Government than in wasting their vote making a futile protest over a referendum held four years previously.
Two pieces of evidence from the last two days alone
1. That the Lib Dems are soaring and not just at the expense of an enfeebled Labour Party but from the Tories too
2. I heard Question Time last night and I found the lady from the Open University convincing and it was clear from the audience reaction that nothing came close to exercising them more than the referendum.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
Even amongst the politically disinterested there is awareness that 'something big' hasn't happened yet, and my guess is that as the little changes start to filter into real lives, awareness may well grow.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
Obviously sad, hope it doesn't happen, etc. However the following:
Emergency services were putting an evacuation plan into action in Jaywick, near Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, with police officers going door-to-door to inform residents of the evacuation beginning at 07:00 GMT on Friday. Leaflets warned residents their properties "could be flooded by sea water up to a depth of three metres".
made me wonder if the residents of Jaywick would want to go back after he evacuation ...
Look on the bright side, it could not look any worse after being hit by 3 meteres of water than it does beforehand.
It's one of the few places on the coast where you walk along the seawall and look *down* on housing inland.
Obviously sad, hope it doesn't happen, etc. However the following:
Emergency services were putting an evacuation plan into action in Jaywick, near Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, with police officers going door-to-door to inform residents of the evacuation beginning at 07:00 GMT on Friday. Leaflets warned residents their properties "could be flooded by sea water up to a depth of three metres".
made me wonder if the residents of Jaywick would want to go back after he evacuation ...
Look on the bright side, it could not look any worse after being hit by 3 meteres of water than it does beforehand.
It’s been flooded before, Malc, and they went back.
I wonder whether Remainers are voting solely on the basis of the Referendum whereas Leavers having won aren't?
What's more Remainers have only one choice of party whereas Leavers have several
To most Remainers that I know there is nothing in British politics which comes close in terms of importance which inevitably means voting Lib Dem.
No.
It would be an awful mistake for any of us to assume, based on a sample consisting of our own social circle, that all voters are both massively politically engaged and determined to fight trench warfare over this referendum.
I reckon that most of the people who voted last June did so pragmatically, accepted the result immediately (even if they were on the losing side and thought it misguided,) and moved on.
I also suspect that many, and probably most, of the "48%" are not obsessed by Europe. They don't sit at the breakfast table each morning, thumbing through their copies of The New European whilst discussing how Article 50 might be bogged down in the House of Lords, the chances of engineering a second vote, and waxing lyrically about the lonely heroism of Gina Miller or Jolyon Maugham.
Certainly most centre-right Remain voters are liable to be much more concerned about any remote prospect of Jeremy Corbyn laying a hand on the levers of power than they are about leaving the EU. Especially given that the next general election is liable to take place in 2020, and after the country has already left the EU, they'll be vastly more interested in electing a halfway sensible Government than in wasting their vote making a futile protest over a referendum held four years previously.
Two pieces of evidence from the last two days alone
1. That the Lib Dems are soaring
Advertisers and hyperbole eh?
In very low turn out elections, the Lib Dems are getting their vote out - good for them - while other parties are struggling.
However, there is no evidence on a national basis from Opinion polls that 'the Lib Dems are soaring' - the last YouGov had LibDems -2% at 10% - vs the Tories on 39.
Similarly there has been no surge in the Lib Dems rating on 'best at negotiating Britain's exit from the EU (6%)
Finally, if we look at where Remain voters are now it's Labour who appear to be gaining most:
OA/Voted Remain diff:
Con: 39 (-12) Lab: 26 (+13) LibD: 10 (+8)
While we know LibDems are the most pro-EU they have also seen the biggest churn among the traditional parties:
Voted in GE2015 vote same way now: Con: 85 Lab: 72 LibD: 60
The biggest single gainers from 2015 Lib Dems - Con, with half of them......
"The problem is the Labour party is led by somebody who is a massive tribalist. The only alliance Corbyn seems to want is with Theresa May over Brexit, and we're not going to join him in that."
Two excellent results by the Lib Dems, albeit on pitifully small turnouts. I have not rated Farron at all but the one thing people who know him better have consistently argued is that he is a good local organiser and campaigner. There is no doubt that the Lib Dems have their mojo back as a campaigning force.
The bigger picture is that we have a party entering mid term in government facing difficult decisions and not showing much grip. In normal circumstances the main opposition party would be rampant right now but instead they are in a mess. The Lib Dems can once again reinvent themselves as the NOTA party and make some progress. How much progress is likely to depend on how the government gets on with Brexit and what people think of the deal that is in place at the next election. A Labour party that is clearly not even vying for power would be a considerable help to them since it would make voting for an alternative to the Tories safer.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
A good answer in the first paragraph; it's a shame you let it down with your second. Did you write exactly what you mean?
So this Sunderland byelection. Councillor Debra Waller booted off for non-attendance. Her husband is then selected. Who amazingly enough loses a safe seat...
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that." Well the second placed party was virulently anti-EU.the fourth placed party was the most pro-EU of the lot and they leapt from 4% to 45%. So, maybe a teensy bit of evidence?
Not only are the L.Dems the most pro-EU but they're the party to be most concerned about threats to civil liberties. Meanwhile, our governing party seems delighted to approve heavy handed surveillance of the citizen by the state.
I'm not sure what Labour's present policy is on the snooper's charter but Blair/Brown were on a par with May and even Cameron rushed through the EAW in 2014.
Maybe this appeals to a few percent of voters, at least ...?
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
I certainly agree that the Lib Dems are making something of a comeback, but let's be honest, things couldn't get that much worse for them. As much as I appreciate the coverage of local by elections, one thing that has been sadly lacking up to now is an assessment of turnout. In both of these wards, turnout was 30% of that recorded the last time the wards were contested (presumably on a local election day in May).
I love this site and there are many good contributors including yourself, Alastair. Unfortunately, however, you have to take news of "Lib Dems winning here" with a pinch of salt. In the run up to 2015 all we heard was how incumbency would keep the Lib Dems at well over 30 seats.
Now it may be the case that something has changed. Certainly the referendum result is a boost to the Lib Dems as they have clearly positioned themselves as the party for the 48%. But I just think we need to remember that doing well in local elections does not necessarily translate into doing well at a General Election. And this applies doubly to council by elections with very low turnout.
Mr. Observer, indeed. At the moment, the Government could optimistically be described as underwhelming (although, ultimately, it's the performance regarding the EU that will determine how good or bad it is). Labour would be better led if they replaced Corbyn with Jar Jar Binks.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
If this was totally down to local factors then you would have assumed that second place last time UKIP would have been the main beneficiaries.
In council polls, especially by elections, the LDs have an organisational advantage plus they are probably the second choice for more Labour voters than UKIP are even in Sunderland
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
A good answer in the first paragraph; it's a shame you let it down with your second. Did you write exactly what you mean?
That's what I think, but it wasn't targeted at you.
I see Robert made a similar point on the previous thread.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that." Well the second placed party was virulently anti-EU.the fourth placed party was the most pro-EU of the lot and they leapt from 4% to 45%. So, maybe a teensy bit of evidence?
Not only are the L.Dems the most pro-EU but they're the party to be most concerned about threats to civil liberties. Meanwhile, our governing party seems delighted to approve heavy handed surveillance of the citizen by the state.
I'm not sure what Labour's present policy is on the snooper's charter but Blair/Brown were on a par with May and even Cameron rushed through the EAW in 2014.
Maybe this appeals to a few percent of voters, at least ...?
Its reasonable to point out that you omitted to say that the report was done on behalf of Greenpeace and that EDF absolutely deny it..
So perhaps they aren't on the verge of bankruptcy after all.....
Good morning all. It's already clear that part of the 21st Century Internetian skill set is the ability to determine the provenance and sources for any story or data presented. Of course, that's assuming one doesn't want to just sit in a cosy bubble surrounded by your tribe.
It is clear the LibDems are returning from the dead. But let's not get carried away. Because it is inded from the dead (low % polling, MPs all in a taxi) that they return. The electoral impact will be to resplit the left. Sunderland shows that Labour is dying and lefties are looking agan at the yellow peril. We all know who the benficiaries of a split left and a dying Labour party will be.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
A good answer in the first paragraph; it's a shame you let it down with your second. Did you write exactly what you mean?
If you don't like the abuse on here, JJ, don't come here
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
A good answer in the first paragraph; it's a shame you let it down with your second. Did you write exactly what you mean?
That's what I think, but it wasn't targeted at you.
I see Robert made a similar point on the previous thread.
LD are picking up votes but Mr Smithson suggestion about the gain in three rivers being significant is questionable, it was v cold and snowing everywhere and turnout seems to have been extremely low. Sensible Tories stayed at home methinks.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that." Well the second placed party was virulently anti-EU.the fourth placed party was the most pro-EU of the lot and they leapt from 4% to 45%. So, maybe a teensy bit of evidence?
Not only are the L.Dems the most pro-EU but they're the party to be most concerned about threats to civil liberties. Meanwhile, our governing party seems delighted to approve heavy handed surveillance of the citizen by the state.
I'm not sure what Labour's present policy is on the snooper's charter but Blair/Brown were on a par with May and even Cameron rushed through the EAW in 2014.
Maybe this appeals to a few percent of voters, at least ...?
Its reasonable to point out that you omitted to say that the report was done on behalf of Greenpeace and that EDF absolutely deny it..
So perhaps they aren't on the verge of bankruptcy after all.....
Good morning all. It's already clear that part of the 21st Century Internetian skill set is the ability to determine the provenance and sources for any story or data presented. Of course, that's assuming one doesn't want to just sit in a cosy bubble surrounded by your tribe.
I didn't have to use any Internetian skill. its there in the link provided by the original poster.
As for Copeland, HYUFD is usually pig-headed and bullish to the point of absurdity, so Im taking their equivocation on the Tory hopes as a sign that they havent got a chance in hell.
HYUFD is a very astute commentator who has a tendency to couch probabilities as certainties.
What a kind way of putting it.
You were a Trump denier for a long time I recall, certainly in terms of the primaries
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
My friend and his partner have bought a new build two bed terrace house for £350,000. They were given a £70,000 loan as part of H2B and contributed a deposit of £17,500 (plus £7,500 for stamp duty). Personally I think it is bonkers and will end in tears.
Obviously sad, hope it doesn't happen, etc. However the following:
Emergency services were putting an evacuation plan into action in Jaywick, near Clacton-on-Sea, Essex, with police officers going door-to-door to inform residents of the evacuation beginning at 07:00 GMT on Friday. Leaflets warned residents their properties "could be flooded by sea water up to a depth of three metres".
made me wonder if the residents of Jaywick would want to go back after he evacuation ...
Look on the bright side, it could not look any worse after being hit by 3 meteres of water than it does beforehand.
It's one of the few places on the coast where you walk along the seawall and look *down* on housing inland.
Looked real dire on the recent series on TV, lovely location as well but looked like derelict huts.
Now Obama has gone, the world's metro liberal elites favourite politician that has got stupid amount of hero worship for little reason other than appearing to be "cool", is in trouble.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that." Well the second placed party was virulently anti-EU.the fourth placed party was the most pro-EU of the lot and they leapt from 4% to 45%. So, maybe a teensy bit of evidence?
Not only are the L.Dems the most pro-EU but they're the party to be most concerned about threats to civil liberties. Meanwhile, our governing party seems delighted to approve heavy handed surveillance of the citizen by the state.
I'm not sure what Labour's present policy is on the snooper's charter but Blair/Brown were on a par with May and even Cameron rushed through the EAW in 2014.
Would this be the EAW deriving from the same EU the Lib Dems worship?
It is clear the LibDems are returning from the dead. But let's not get carried away. Because it is inded from the dead (low % polling, MPs all in a taxi) that they return. The electoral impact will be to resplit the left. Sunderland shows that Labour is dying and lefties are looking agan at the yellow peril. We all know who the benficiaries of a split left and a dying Labour party will be.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
A good answer in the first paragraph; it's a shame you let it down with your second. Did you write exactly what you mean?
That's what I think, but it wasn't targeted at you.
I see Robert made a similar point on the previous thread.
I didn't think you were making it about me; I just didn't understand it. Was there one too many negations in it?
On an off-topic point: my son has just experienced his first falling snow. One of the magical moments of parenthood.
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
My friend and his partner have bought a new build two bed terrace house for £350,000. They were given a £70,000 loan as part of H2B and contributed a deposit of £17,500 (plus £7,500 for stamp duty). Personally I think it is bonkers and will end in tears.
Clearly more marginal purchasers are entering the market and some of them will prove vulnerable if there is a significant change in interest rates, for example. But the fall in home ownership combined with the high level of rents has been a major driver in wealth inequality in this country and I am encouraged that there are modest signs of a reverse in this.
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
I certainly agree that the Lib Dems are making something of a comeback, but let's be honest, things couldn't get that much worse for them. As much as I appreciate the coverage of local by elections, one thing that has been sadly lacking up to now is an assessment of turnout. In both of these wards, turnout was 30% of that recorded the last time the wards were contested (presumably on a local election day in May).
I love this site and there are many good contributors including yourself, Alastair. Unfortunately, however, you have to take news of "Lib Dems winning here" with a pinch of salt. In the run up to 2015 all we heard was how incumbency would keep the Lib Dems at well over 30 seats.
Now it may be the case that something has changed. Certainly the referendum result is a boost to the Lib Dems as they have clearly positioned themselves as the party for the 48%. But I just think we need to remember that doing well in local elections does not necessarily translate into doing well at a General Election. And this applies doubly to council by elections with very low turnout.
Has same veracity as "Tory Surge in Scotland" which is common on here
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
I certainly agree that the Lib Dems are making something of a comeback, but let's be honest, things couldn't get that much worse for them. As much as I appreciate the coverage of local by elections, one thing that has been sadly lacking up to now is an assessment of turnout. In both of these wards, turnout was 30% of that recorded the last time the wards were contested (presumably on a local election day in May).
I love this site and there are many good contributors including yourself, Alastair. Unfortunately, however, you have to take news of "Lib Dems winning here" with a pinch of salt. In the run up to 2015 all we heard was how incumbency would keep the Lib Dems at well over 30 seats.
Now it may be the case that something has changed. Certainly the referendum result is a boost to the Lib Dems as they have clearly positioned themselves as the party for the 48%. But I just think we need to remember that doing well in local elections does not necessarily translate into doing well at a General Election. And this applies doubly to council by elections with very low turnout.
Has same veracity as "Tory Surge in Scotland" which is common on here
I think the Tories might well gain a couple of hundred council seats, mainly from the SNP, in May. But I expect the SNP to gain even more from Labour and to be net gainers on the night.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.
Full, hard Brexit i.e. leaving the EU and single market, a points system for EU and non EU migrants and no more budget contributions to the EU if we get all that then with May more socially conservative than Cameron and a supporter of grammars there will be no real need for UKIP so they will die a death, yea
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?
I wonder whether Remainers are voting solely on the basis of the Referendum whereas Leavers having won aren't?
What's more Remainers have only one choice of party whereas Leavers have several
To most Remainers that I know there is nothing in British politics which comes close in terms of importance which inevitably means voting Lib Dem.
No.
It would be an awful mistake for any of us to assume, based on a sample consisting of our own social circle, that all voters are both massively politically engaged and determined to fight trench warfare over this referendum.
I reckon that most of the people who voted last June did so pragmatically, accepted the result immediately (even if they were on the losing side and thought it misguided,) and moved on.
I also suspect that many, and probably most, of the "48%" are not obsessed by Europe. They don't sit at the breakfast table each morning, thumbing through their copies of The New European whilst discussing how Article 50 might be bogged down in the House of Lords, the chances of engineering a second vote, and waxing lyrically about the lonely heroism of Gina Miller or Jolyon Maugham.
Certainly most centre-right Remain voters are liable to be much more concerned about any remote prospect of Jeremy Corbyn laying a hand on the levers of power than they are about leaving the EU. Especially given that the next general election is liable to take place in 2020, and after the country has already left the EU, they'll be vastly more interested in electing a halfway sensible Government than in wasting their vote making a futile protest over a referendum held four years previously.
Two pieces of evidence from the last two days alone
1. That the Lib Dems are soaring and not just at the expense of an enfeebled Labour Party but from the Tories too
2. I heard Question Time last night and I found the lady from the Open University convincing and it was clear from the audience reaction that nothing came close to exercising them more than the referendum.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
Does anyone know where we now are w.r.t. A50/Supreme Court/need for a Bill? I am assuming that the SC will uphold the need for Parliament to approve A50 triggering and that there will be a one line Bill about 5 minutes later. Is this right? What wrecking amendments will Remainiacs be able to attach to the one line bill and what can May do about that?
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
My friend and his partner have bought a new build two bed terrace house for £350,000. They were given a £70,000 loan as part of H2B and contributed a deposit of £17,500 (plus £7,500 for stamp duty). Personally I think it is bonkers and will end in tears.
Clearly more marginal purchasers are entering the market and some of them will prove vulnerable if there is a significant change in interest rates, for example. But the fall in home ownership combined with the high level of rents has been a major driver in wealth inequality in this country and I am encouraged that there are modest signs of a reverse in this.
Where I would give George credit is the change to the tax deductions on buy to let mortgages and the additional stamp duty on second homes. It's just a shame he didn't do it sooner.
Echoing others on here - I agree the LDs have become the respectable face of NOTA again. Of course we know where that ends up. Only with them getting into actual government. It is a testament, however, to the collective amnesia of the electorate that we are seeing the beginnings of such a path.
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.
Full, hard Brexit i.e. leaving the EU and single market, a points system for EU migrants and no more budget contributions to the EU if we get all that then with May more socially conservative than Cameron and a supporter of grammars there will be no real need for UKIP so they will die a death, yea
We're getting Brexit already and there is no real need for UKIP so they have already died a death. They were barely on life support anyway only getting one MP last time, now they are just waiting for someone to turn off the life support machine.
Funny how Lib Dems on 8 MPs are universally accepted as nearly-dead but UKIP on 1 are virile and healthy. I don't think so.
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.
Full, hard Brexit i.e. leaving the EU and single market, a points system for EU and non EU migrants and no more budget contributions to the EU if we get all that then with May more socially conservative than Cameron and a supporter of grammars there will be no real need for UKIP so they will die a death, yea
Good luck with rabid support of grammar schools as part of 'UKIP takes the North' strategy.
I wonder whether Remainers are voting solely on the basis of the Referendum whereas Leavers having won aren't?
What's more Remainers have only one choice of party whereas Leavers have several
To most Remainers that I know there is nothing in British politics which comes close in terms of importance which inevitably means voting Lib Dem.
No.
It would be an awful mistake for any of us to assume, based on a sample consisting of our own social circle, that all voters are both massively politically engaged and determined to fight trench warfare over this referendum.
I reckon that most of the people who voted last June did so pragmatically, accepted the result immediately (even if they were on the losing side and thought it misguided,) and moved on.
I also suspect that many, and probably most, of the "48%" are not obsessed by Europe. They don't sit at the breakfast table each morning, thumbing through their copies of The New European whilst discussing how Article 50 might be bogged down in the House of Lords, the chances of engineering a second vote, and waxing lyrically about the lonely heroism of Gina Miller or Jolyon Maugham.
Certainly most centre-right Remain voters are liable to be much more concerned about any remote prospect of Jeremy Corbyn laying a hand on the levers of power than they are about leaving the EU. Especially given that the next general election is liable to take place in 2020, and after the country has already left the EU, they'll be vastly more interested in electing a halfway sensible Government than in wasting their vote making a futile protest over a referendum held four years previously.
Two pieces of evidence from the last two days alone
1. That the Lib Dems are soaring and not just at the expense of an enfeebled Labour Party but from the Tories too
2. I heard Question Time last night and I found the lady from the Open University convincing and it was clear from the audience reaction that nothing came close to exercising them more than the referendum.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
The lady on question time who was boo-ed by the audience? Openly booed?
That one? The one who said we should have a second referendum and that she has felt sick every morning since the referendum.
On May's honeymoon - surely any Conservative PM would've had the same, facing Corbyn?
Fantasy readers: some sad news. Douglas Hulick, who wrote the Tales of the Kin books, won't be writing the third due to depression. He's getting counselling but don't count on it ever arriving.
I wonder whether Remainers are voting solely on the basis of the Referendum whereas Leavers having won aren't?
What's more Remainers have only one choice of party whereas Leavers have several
To most Remainers that I know there is nothing in British politics which comes close in terms of importance which inevitably means voting Lib Dem.
No.
It would be an awful mistake for any of us to assume, based on a sample consisting of our own social circle, that all voters are both massively politically engaged and determined to fight trench warfare over this referendum.
I reckon that most of the people who voted last June did so pragmatically, accepted the result immediately (even if they were on the losing side and thought it misguided,) and moved on.
I also suspect that many, and probably most, of the "48%" are not obsessed by Europe. They don't sit at the breakfast table each morning, thumbing through their copies of The New European whilst discussing how Article 50 might be bogged down in the House of Lords, the chances of engineering a second vote, and waxing lyrically about the lonely heroism of Gina Miller or Jolyon Maugham.
Certainly most centre-right Remain voters are liable to be much more concerned about any remote prospect of Jeremy Corbyn laying a hand on the levers of power than they are about leaving the EU. Especially given that the next general election is liable to take place in 2020, and after the country has already left the EU, they'll be vastly more interested in electing a halfway sensible Government than in wasting their vote making a futile protest over a referendum held four years previously.
Two pieces of evidence from the last two days alone
1. That the Lib Dems are soaring and not just at the expense of an enfeebled Labour Party but from the Tories too
2. I heard Question Time last night and I found the lady from the Open University convincing and it was clear from the audience reaction that nothing came close to exercising them more than the referendum.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
It seems that some are willing to ignore a whole string of local by-elections plus the results in Richmond Park, Witney and others. That won't be great for your betting outcome.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Is that the same EEA that they were lambasting during the Referendum?
Sure. I'm just guessing that the EEA would be easier to sell to the electorate than returning to the chilly bosom of the 'EUSSR' as the frothier denizens of Twitter call it.
Small straws in the wind but i haven't seen anything to suggest that everyone's just shrugged their shoulders and moved on as you and Carlotta suggest
There's a middle way here which is that there is a chunk of Remainian voters who are very worked up about Brexit, and probably Trump and the state of the world in general, but they're quite a small proportion of the electorate. That explains why the dent they're making in the opinion polls isn't very big, but they're making a big difference in low-turnout elections.
I think you're right but for a party at the moment to have a USP sets it apart particularly one as important to a section of voters as Brexit and suggests a bright and possibly Orange future
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Short-termism has blighted the LDs since 1997, when Paddy was dropped mercilessly by Blair after the latter won a massive majority.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Yup, and whatever they end up advocating rejoining will probably actually be an easier sell than defending the EU. They'll be in the position that the skeptics have been in over the last 20 years, where the government has to make the actual deals with inconsiderate foreigners who insist on having their own opinions and interests, and the LibDems can denounce the deal and demand a better one.
Sunderland should have been fertile territory for UKIP and in this seat they were second to Labour with 26% but instead of taking it they dropped by 7%. Amazing swing to the LibDems in an iconic 'Leave' area.
A Leave area dependent on exporting via the single market.
The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that.
I suspect this is simply down to them becoming the non-offensive 'none of the above' option once more. It also helps that many LD councillors are actually not too bad at their job, certainly compared to UKIP.
Most voters don't know what the LD position even is on Brexit - or even the name of their leader - and, of those that do, they consider it irrelevant in a local by election.
"The Lib Dems would like to think these votes are about the EU, but there is no evidence to support that."
What sort of electoral results would make you think otherwise?
If there was a clear swing to Remain in the national polls, and a clear swing to the LDs with it. If you polled Sunderland right now I expect you'd get very similar results to the EU Ref itself.
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
A good answer in the first paragraph; it's a shame you let it down with your second. Did you write exactly what you mean?
That's what I think, but it wasn't targeted at you.
I see Robert made a similar point on the previous thread.
I didn't think you were making it about me; I just didn't understand it. Was there one too many negations in it?
On an off-topic point: my son has just experienced his first falling snow. One of the magical moments of parenthood.
Oh I see. Clumsily phrased. I meant relevant, not irrelevant.
Mr. Jessop, not quite the same (I hope) but the current hound's predecessor was acquired just as the first recent arctic winter arrived. When he was too young (shots not yet finished) to go on walks he had to go in the back garden, the snow up to his stomach. Because he was a mongrel but mostly short-haired border collie, he didn't even have fur on half his undercarriage. Didn't seem bothered, to be honest, which was quite surprising.
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Yup, and whatever they end up advocating rejoining will probably actually be an easier sell than defending the EU. They'll be in the position that the skeptics have been in over the last 20 years, where the government has to make the actual deals with inconsiderate foreigners who insist on having their own opinions and interests, and the LibDems can denounce the deal and demand a better one.
Nah - not for 25 years at least.
You really, really, really underestimate the residual antipathy there will be to the EU. It will last 50 years if they play silly beggars over the negotiations of exit.
Mr. Jessop, not quite the same (I hope) but the current hound's predecessor was acquired just as the first recent arctic winter arrived. When he was too young (shots not yet finished) to go on walks he had to go in the back garden, the snow up to his stomach. Because he was a mongrel but mostly short-haired border collie, he didn't even have fur on half his undercarriage. Didn't seem bothered, to be honest, which was quite surprising.
My ex was Australian, and she had never seen heavy snow. Our first winter together was quite cold. One day I was staying at her place, and she woke up one morning to see thick snow on the ground.
She shrugged on a dressing gown, ran downstairs and out into the snow. She shouted: "It's snowing! It's snowing!" for about ten yards before stopping, turning around, and running back shouting: "It's cold! It's cold!"
To be fair its not really comparing apples with apples, is it, given the vast number of changes polling compnaies have made in the interim. Not that I think they arent a good chunk ahead given labour's state of outright civil war (albeit in very unusual circumstances, where Brexit can mean whatever you want it to mean, though this will soon change), but the circle-jerking westminster-media-polling company nexus should be showing a bit of contrition rather than fluffing about with grand statements. I realise they have to make their non-jobs seem important.
Except, that USP dies when we serve Article 50. Then, theLibDems have to take on the far less handy USP of being the party for rejoining the EU, along with the Euro and all the crap we'd have to take for crawling back to Brussels. It's a strategy that will play for about 6 months for the LibDems. Then what? They can't do a UKIP, and ask the voters to hark back to some glorious early age when we were in the EU and life was lovely, because the voters just don't associate the EU with warm and fuzzy feelings.
Dunno, they could start with rejoining the Single Market or something, anything between the full EU and whatever Britain ends up with will work for them.
I'm going to make a WAG that the LDs will end up lobbying for the UK to join the EEA rather than rejoin the EU, post-Brexit.
Yup, and whatever they end up advocating rejoining will probably actually be an easier sell than defending the EU. They'll be in the position that the skeptics have been in over the last 20 years, where the government has to make the actual deals with inconsiderate foreigners who insist on having their own opinions and interests, and the LibDems can denounce the deal and demand a better one.
Nah - not for 25 years at least.
You really, really, really underestimate the residual antipathy there will be to the EU. It will last 50 years if they play silly beggars over the negotiations of exit.
That's a very good point that I hadn't fully considered. Verhofstadt has already said that he intends to be very tough and go on the offensive. A couple of years of negotiating shenanigans will make selling the EU ( or any of its associated institutions) very difficult.
Mr. Jessop, not quite the same (I hope) but the current hound's predecessor was acquired just as the first recent arctic winter arrived. When he was too young (shots not yet finished) to go on walks he had to go in the back garden, the snow up to his stomach. Because he was a mongrel but mostly short-haired border collie, he didn't even have fur on half his undercarriage. Didn't seem bothered, to be honest, which was quite surprising.
My ex was Australian, and she had never seen heavy snow. Our first winter together was quite cold. One day I was staying at her place, and she woke up one morning to see thick snow on the ground.
She shrugged on a dressing gown, ran downstairs and out into the snow. She shouted: "It's snowing! It's snowing!" for about ten yards before stopping, turning around, and running back shouting: "It's cold! It's cold!"
'The Press Association has analysed the poll ratings for every government of the past 60 years precisely six months into the term of a new prime minister.'
Where apparently looking up a small selection of historical polls (which cannot be in any way scientifically compared due to the completely changed methodologies over the years) suddenly becomes an 'analysis' and 'research' as though its the political equivalent of the Cochrane Collaboration or something.
And Martin Boon needs to be less publically obvious with his personal biases and gripes. The man has become a joke.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
I suspect the Liberal policy is a stop-gap measure. Once we leave, the policy will begin to look dated, and later ... total folly.
We'll be a beggar hoping for scraps. Forced to join the Euro, embrace federalism and pay real money every year. Billions that opponents will say comes straight off the NHS budget. Good luck with rebutting that one.
Our membership of the EU is dead, it is extinct, it breathes no more (add in more of the dead parrot sketch).
In the short term, the policy will give false hope and a reason to believe for the grieving Europhiles, but they know, deep in their hearts, that it's over.
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
My friend and his partner have bought a new build two bed terrace house for £350,000. They were given a £70,000 loan as part of H2B and contributed a deposit of £17,500 (plus £7,500 for stamp duty). Personally I think it is bonkers and will end in tears.
Clearly more marginal purchasers are entering the market and some of them will prove vulnerable if there is a significant change in interest rates, for example. But the fall in home ownership combined with the high level of rents has been a major driver in wealth inequality in this country and I am encouraged that there are modest signs of a reverse in this.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
Problem is that just your interpretation. It's all open to interpretation and conjecture. The theology of Brexit.
I suspect the Liberal policy is a stop-gap measure. Once we leave, the policy will begin to look dated, and later ... total folly.
We'll be a beggar hoping for scraps. Forced to join the Euro, embrace federalism and pay real money every year. Billions that opponents will say comes straight off the NHS budget. Good luck with rebutting that one.
Our membership of the EU is dead, it is extinct, it breathes no more (add in more of the dead parrot sketch).
In the short term, the policy will give false hope and a reason to believe for the grieving Europhiles, but they know, deep in their hearts, that it's over.
Any party's policy changes as the facts change, but currently a policy of 'soft' Brexit seems popular.
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
My friend and his partner have bought a new build two bed terrace house for £350,000. They were given a £70,000 loan as part of H2B and contributed a deposit of £17,500 (plus £7,500 for stamp duty). Personally I think it is bonkers and will end in tears.
Clearly more marginal purchasers are entering the market and some of them will prove vulnerable if there is a significant change in interest rates, for example. But the fall in home ownership combined with the high level of rents has been a major driver in wealth inequality in this country and I am encouraged that there are modest signs of a reverse in this.
Very small straws indeed - very low turnouts in 2 local by-elections is undoubtedly good for the LDs but hardly evidence the country is ready to scrap its Brexit vote. As for Newsnight - are you kidding?
People who think such results mean scrapping the Brexit vote are almost certainly deluded. However it does give the LDs a focal point on which they can build a strong narrative.
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Brexit means Brexit, and we want a Red, White and Blue Brexit do mean something, though.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door (b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
If you're right and the Tories are going for a hard Brexit, I predict that they will begin to decline in the opinion polls.
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
My friend and his partner have bought a new build two bed terrace house for £350,000. They were given a £70,000 loan as part of H2B and contributed a deposit of £17,500 (plus £7,500 for stamp duty). Personally I think it is bonkers and will end in tears.
Clearly more marginal purchasers are entering the market and some of them will prove vulnerable if there is a significant change in interest rates, for example. But the fall in home ownership combined with the high level of rents has been a major driver in wealth inequality in this country and I am encouraged that there are modest signs of a reverse in this.
The basic options are inherit, rent or buy on margin. David Astor was appalled when he learned that mortgages are a thing (he heard about them from his chauffeur, I believe) and that "most of my writers are living in debt". For most people they are one of the only two games in town.
Well, it's a rare pleasure to wake to news of big local by-election gains for the LDs after the long Coalition years of losses and reverses.
Is it "significant" ? Yes and No. Of course, it means nothing on the larger scale but it boosts confidence, morale and mood within the LDs and if parties and their memberships feel they are on the right track and things are going well, it helps.
Perhaps on here we see politics too closely through the prism of Brexit and fail to recognise the other issues that affect people whether it be the NHS or just how things are locally. Sometimes local elections are just that, "local", a referendum on a local issue or a shot across the bows of an underperforming Council.
It's also a perfect vehicle to register that message of "unhappiness" with the national scene, not enough to change a vote when it comes to a GE but enough to "remind" Governments and even Oppositions that voters and votes can't be taken for granted.
I see we have another thread in which the usual suspects will fervently deny in the teeth of all available evidence that the Lib Dems are managing some sort of a revival. Ah well, whatever keeps them warm at night.
Of course they are seeing a minor revival particularly as a protest vote against an expected hard Brexit. However if Brexit is not as hard as some expect e.g. with budget contributions to the EU continuing and no points system for EU migrants, then some of that protest vote will switch back to UKIP
What will it take for you to accept that UKIP have died a death, RIP.
Full, hard Brexit i.e. leaving the EU and single market, a points system for EU migrants and no more budget contributions to the EU if we get all that then with May more socially conservative than Cameron and a supporter of grammars there will be no real need for UKIP so they will die a death, yea
We're getting Brexit already and there is no real need for UKIP so they have already died a death. They were barely on life support anyway only getting one MP last time, now they are just waiting for someone to turn off the life support machine.
Funny how Lib Dems on 8 MPs are universally accepted as nearly-dead but UKIP on 1 are virile and healthy. I don't think so.
Yes but technically staying in the EEA with no new immigration controls and continued budget contributions would also be Brexit but would lead to a large UKIP protest vote and satisfy even most LDs. UKIP are also still polling higher than the LDs on the whole
Comments
This has nothing to do with Brexit - expect to the extent that now it's happening, and the LDs are so small at a national level, their europhilia is now no longer irrelevant - and it's amazing how many pb Remainer regulars seem to think it is.
Funny that.
Of course if he makes it to the next General Election then Corbyn is going to be a local factor almost everywhere ...
I'm not sure what Labour's present policy is on the snooper's charter but Blair/Brown were on a par with May and even Cameron rushed through the EAW in 2014.
Maybe this appeals to a few percent of voters, at least ...?
A bit off-topic, Electricite de France/EDF appears on the verge of collapse, with its nuclear liabilities just too much. Guess who'll pay: http://climatenewsnetwork.net/taxpayers-bill-nuclear-crisis/
Look on the bright side, it could not look any worse after being hit by 3 meteres of water than it does beforehand.
That might happen in GE2020 if Corbyn is replaced and Brexit/May turn out to be a total disaster, but it's rather unlikely.
More likely: the LDs make modest advances of 4-8 seats, but 2025GE could be very interesting for them.
It's one of the few places on the coast where you walk along the seawall and look *down* on housing inland.
It’s been flooded before, Malc, and they went back.
In very low turn out elections, the Lib Dems are getting their vote out - good for them - while other parties are struggling.
However, there is no evidence on a national basis from Opinion polls that 'the Lib Dems are soaring' - the last YouGov had LibDems -2% at 10% - vs the Tories on 39.
Similarly there has been no surge in the Lib Dems rating on 'best at negotiating Britain's exit from the EU (6%)
Finally, if we look at where Remain voters are now it's Labour who appear to be gaining most:
OA/Voted Remain diff:
Con: 39 (-12)
Lab: 26 (+13)
LibD: 10 (+8)
While we know LibDems are the most pro-EU they have also seen the biggest churn among the traditional parties:
Voted in GE2015 vote same way now:
Con: 85
Lab: 72
LibD: 60
The biggest single gainers from 2015 Lib Dems - Con, with half of them......
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/82298/excl-theresa-may-prisoner-trump-wing-tory-party
Farron's alive, and speaking nonsense.
Long term (like over ~35 years) it's likely to beat the FTSE, right?
The bigger picture is that we have a party entering mid term in government facing difficult decisions and not showing much grip. In normal circumstances the main opposition party would be rampant right now but instead they are in a mess. The Lib Dems can once again reinvent themselves as the NOTA party and make some progress. How much progress is likely to depend on how the government gets on with Brexit and what people think of the deal that is in place at the next election. A Labour party that is clearly not even vying for power would be a considerable help to them since it would make voting for an alternative to the Tories safer.
Snow in Yorkshire. Shade surprised. Hopefully the east coast won't be inundated at high tides today.
A lot of people who voted for the first time in years in the referendum are likely to go back to not voting again now.
Corbyn is finished. It's when, not if.
The Tories are very, very lucky to have no serious oppositition. It is very, very bad for the country that they don't.
First time buyers reached a 10 year high in 2010 on the back of his help to buy policies (and, probably more significantly but not mentioned, the more aggressive taxation regime for BTL).
So perhaps they aren't on the verge of bankruptcy after all.....
I love this site and there are many good contributors including yourself, Alastair. Unfortunately, however, you have to take news of "Lib Dems winning here" with a pinch of salt. In the run up to 2015 all we heard was how incumbency would keep the Lib Dems at well over 30 seats.
Now it may be the case that something has changed. Certainly the referendum result is a boost to the Lib Dems as they have clearly positioned themselves as the party for the 48%. But I just think we need to remember that doing well in local elections does not necessarily translate into doing well at a General Election. And this applies doubly to council by elections with very low turnout.
I see Robert made a similar point on the previous thread.
Abuse is what Peebies do best
I see Robert made a similar point on the previous thread.
Looked real dire on the recent series on TV, lovely location as well but looked like derelict huts.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election
On an off-topic point: my son has just experienced his first falling snow. One of the magical moments of parenthood.
Mrs May's premiership reaches the six-month mark on Friday, during which time her party has opened up an average poll lead over Labour of 14 points.
No Tory government in modern times has been in such a commanding position at this stage of a prime minister's time in office.
http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/pm-enjoys-longest-opinion-poll-honeymoon-of-any-tory-premier-since-1950s-11364136145000
The question is: why is it as it is?
What wrecking amendments will Remainiacs be able to attach to the one line bill and what can May do about that?
Funny how Lib Dems on 8 MPs are universally accepted as nearly-dead but UKIP on 1 are virile and healthy. I don't think so.
That one? The one who said we should have a second referendum and that she has felt sick every morning since the referendum.
Lol.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 31m31 minutes ago
Theresa May enjoys longest opinion poll honeymoon of any Tory PM since 1950s: chart via @MattChorley
Fantasy readers: some sad news. Douglas Hulick, who wrote the Tales of the Kin books, won't be writing the third due to depression. He's getting counselling but don't count on it ever arriving.
Edited extra bit: ahem, it* = the third book.
"Swiss town denies passport to vegan anti-cowbell campaigner 'for being annoying'
Nancy Holten has campaigned publicly against the use of cowbells and other Swiss traditions"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/switzerland-deny-passport-dutch-vegan-anti-cowbell-nancy-holten-animal-rights-annoying-a7520991.html
Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP currently lack a narrative; the nearest the Conservatives have to one is the ludicrous 'Brexit is Brexit'.
At a time when the 'usual' politics has been overthrown; with Scottish Labour on life support; UK Labour led by a political naive, and the Conservatives walking along the tightrope of Brexit; it's foolish to think that electoral change may have stopped.
I'm not saying that Farron will sweep into No. 10 in 2020; that's ridiculous. But there are great opportunities for them to shape political discourse in the UK to their advantage.
Good news with your son.
You really, really, really underestimate the residual antipathy there will be to the EU. It will last 50 years if they play silly beggars over the negotiations of exit.
She shrugged on a dressing gown, ran downstairs and out into the snow. She shouted: "It's snowing! It's snowing!" for about ten yards before stopping, turning around, and running back shouting: "It's cold! It's cold!"
'The Press Association has analysed the poll ratings for every government of the past 60 years precisely six months into the term of a new prime minister.'
Where apparently looking up a small selection of historical polls (which cannot be in any way scientifically compared due to the completely changed methodologies over the years) suddenly becomes an 'analysis' and 'research' as though its the political equivalent of the Cochrane Collaboration or something.
And Martin Boon needs to be less publically obvious with his personal biases and gripes. The man has become a joke.
They mean:
(a) Theresa May will trigger A50, and formally leave the EU; she won't renege, or try and stay via the back door
(b) That rather than joining EFTA or the EEA, the UK is looking for its own bespoke deal.
And there are plenty of clues already out there as to what the UK wants in that deal.
We'll be a beggar hoping for scraps. Forced to join the Euro, embrace federalism and pay real money every year. Billions that opponents will say comes straight off the NHS budget. Good luck with rebutting that one.
Our membership of the EU is dead, it is extinct, it breathes no more (add in more of the dead parrot sketch).
In the short term, the policy will give false hope and a reason to believe for the grieving Europhiles, but they know, deep in their hearts, that it's over.
Well, it's a rare pleasure to wake to news of big local by-election gains for the LDs after the long Coalition years of losses and reverses.
Is it "significant" ? Yes and No. Of course, it means nothing on the larger scale but it boosts confidence, morale and mood within the LDs and if parties and their memberships feel they are on the right track and things are going well, it helps.
Perhaps on here we see politics too closely through the prism of Brexit and fail to recognise the other issues that affect people whether it be the NHS or just how things are locally. Sometimes local elections are just that, "local", a referendum on a local issue or a shot across the bows of an underperforming Council.
It's also a perfect vehicle to register that message of "unhappiness" with the national scene, not enough to change a vote when it comes to a GE but enough to "remind" Governments and even Oppositions that voters and votes can't be taken for granted.
Within the insignificance there's a significance.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/82318/excl-labour-mp-tristram-hunt-quits-become-director
https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/819839218914566144
is a great reason.
Tristram Hunt to resign as MP to be director of V&A