politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After 16 months of Corbyn Mark 1 get ready folk for this week’
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Not really - the rules have not changed at all. Parties have tended to call by elections at a time that suits their intersts!RobD said:
Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".justin124 said:
2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.RobD said:
I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.justin124 said:
Historically it would be very normal.RobD said:
Still quite a while.justin124 said:
If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.dr_spyn said:Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?0 -
Then maybe it is quite telling that they want to delay this one? Still, to go that many months without an MP is unusual. Even historically it is not normal.justin124 said:
Not really - the rules have not changed at all. Parties have tended to call by elections at a time that suits their intersts!RobD said:
Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".justin124 said:
2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.RobD said:
I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.justin124 said:
Historically it would be very normal.RobD said:
Still quite a while.justin124 said:
If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.dr_spyn said:Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?0 -
This from the man who thought IDS would be a brilliant Tory leader and John Major would defeat Blair in 1997!Scott_P said:0 -
Given that nothing has changed about Jeremy Corbyn since the 1970s, I'd be rather surprised if tomorrow is the day for a radical makeover.SandyRentool said:Jezza relaunch - what are the odds on him turning up on the breakfast sofa minus his beard?
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Well - back in 1969 the MP for Newcastle under Lyme died in mid-February. The by electioon to elect his successor took place on October 30th!RobD said:
Then maybe it is quite telling that they want to delay this one? Still, to go that many months without an MP is unusual. Even historically it is not normal.justin124 said:
Not really - the rules have not changed at all. Parties have tended to call by elections at a time that suits their intersts!RobD said:
Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".justin124 said:
2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.RobD said:
I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.justin124 said:
Historically it would be very normal.RobD said:
Still quite a while.justin124 said:
If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.dr_spyn said:Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?0 -
The Trumpist relaunch...Sandpit said:Given that nothing has changed about Jeremy Corbyn since the 1970s, I'd be rather surprised if tomorrow is the day for a radical makeover.
@lowenergycorbyn: We're gonna build an allotment! And neoliberal corrupt media are going to pay for it!0 -
Probably more memorable since it was an outlier, which is kind of my point.justin124 said:
Well - back in 1969 the MP for Newcastle under Lyme died in mid-February. The by electioon to elect his successor took place on October 30th!RobD said:
Then maybe it is quite telling that they want to delay this one? Still, to go that many months without an MP is unusual. Even historically it is not normal.justin124 said:
Not really - the rules have not changed at all. Parties have tended to call by elections at a time that suits their intersts!RobD said:
Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".justin124 said:
2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.RobD said:
I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.justin124 said:
Historically it would be very normal.RobD said:
Still quite a while.justin124 said:
If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.dr_spyn said:Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?0 -
Not sure about this statement: "Last new year, it was inconceivable that she would end the year as Prime Minister."RobD said:
Interesting read - I do think the vacuum of activity (perceived or not) has done her harm.Scott_P said:twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/818544309205139457
Some of us didn't think so and made a tidy packet at the bookies, thank you very much.0 -
She has to balance those wanting hard and soft Brexit and try and control borders while getting a trade deal. Inevitably it will be complex + a careful balancing act, interesting he has a few rare positive words about DavisHYUFD said:
This from the man who thought IDS would be a brilliant Tory leader and John Major would defeat Blair in 1997!Scott_P said:
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Made a tidy packet since the bookies thought it was inconceivable?rottenborough said:
Not sure about this statement: "Last new year, it was inconceivable that she would end the year as Prime Minister."RobD said:
Interesting read - I do think the vacuum of activity (perceived or not) has done her harm.Scott_P said:twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/818544309205139457
Some of us didn't think so and made a tidy packet at the bookies, thank you very much.
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Great anecdote from Cummings that has relevance to Labour's future:
One of the key delusions that ‘the centre ground’ caused in SW1 concerned immigration. Most people convinced themselves that ‘swing voters’ must have a ‘moderate’ and ‘centre ground’ view between Farage and Corbyn. Wrong. About 80% of the country including almost all swing voters agreed with UKIP that immigration was out of control and something like an Australian points system was a good idea. This was true across party lines.
This was brought home to me very starkly one day. I was conducting focus groups of Conservative voters. I talked with them about immigration for 20 minutes (all focus groups now start with immigration and tend to revert to it within two minutes unless you stop them). We then moved onto the economy. After two minutes of listening I was puzzled and said – who did you vote for? Labour they all said. An admin error by the company meant that I had been talking to core Labour voters, not core Tory voters. On the subject of immigration, these working class / lower middle class people were practically indistinguishable from all the Tories and UKIP people I had been talking to.0 -
Even the shed?Scott_P said:
The Trumpist relaunch...Sandpit said:Given that nothing has changed about Jeremy Corbyn since the 1970s, I'd be rather surprised if tomorrow is the day for a radical makeover.
@lowenergycorbyn: We're gonna build an allotment! And neoliberal corrupt media are going to pay for it!0 -
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Indeed. Mrs May was 10/1 as next PM, the week before the referendum. Despite several headers and hundreds of comments on here, she wasn't the favourite until the day the nominations closed.RobD said:
Made a tidy packet since the bookies thought it was inconceivable?rottenborough said:
Not sure about this statement: "Last new year, it was inconceivable that she would end the year as Prime Minister."RobD said:
Interesting read - I do think the vacuum of activity (perceived or not) has done her harm.Scott_P said:twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/818544309205139457
Some of us didn't think so and made a tidy packet at the bookies, thank you very much.0 -
Downgraded from "School" to..?isam said:0 -
NHS Crisis continues:
http://reaction.life/can-nhs-breaking-point-advertising-jobs-like/
A reader gets in touch to point out that in the Guardian there is an advert for a part-time Assistant Director of Equality and Diversity at Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Trust. The salary for the winning candidate is £46,625 – £57,640 per annum. That’s more than a teacher in Inner London (on the upper pay ranges) earns. It’s more than is earned by a captain in the British army, and about the same as a Major.0 -
Humanitarian crisis, don't you know!Sandpit said:NHS Crisis continues:
http://reaction.life/can-nhs-breaking-point-advertising-jobs-like/
A reader gets in touch to point out that in the Guardian there is an advert for a part-time Assistant Director of Equality and Diversity at Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Trust. The salary for the winning candidate is £46,625 – £57,640 per annum. That’s more than a teacher in Inner London (on the upper pay ranges) earns. It’s more than is earned by a captain in the British army, and about the same as a Major.0 -
On that basis he said Blair wasn't up to it shortly before he won the 1997 election by a landslide. The potential alternative he has suggested is Hammond who is John Major without the charisma and ideologically little different from May, if the Tories ever get rid of May it will be for the likes of Leadsom or Fox or Patterson because she did not go far enough on Brexit, not for the likes of Osborne or Hammond because she was too hard in her Brexit termswilliamglenn said:0 -
Big college football game tonight - the national championship.
It's a rematch of last year - Clemson v Alabama. Tide are favored by 6 1/2, over/under of 51. To add a wrinkle, Alabama fired their offensive coordinator last week (Lane Kiffin).
I live almost exactly halfway between them, have friends from both, and have been to games at both locations. I'm an SEC homer, but like Clemson (and Florida State) - both of whom are ACC but good enough for the SEC.
The SEC is unusual, in that most college fans support their team and that's about it. Fans of SEC teams support first their team, and then any other SEC team. The SEC even has its own conference chant.
As I've said on here before, there is nothing like the pageantry and emotion of college football. Once you've experienced it it is unforgettable. I've had both tiger paw and "A" painted on my cheeks, got hoarse from screaming at both, and done the wave at both.
Here's a sample
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df6KzOd_X_U0 -
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Ah, yes, the humanitarian crisis that's so bad they spend the salary of three nurses on recruiting a part time diversity officer.RobD said:
Humanitarian crisis, don't you know!Sandpit said:NHS Crisis continues:
http://reaction.life/can-nhs-breaking-point-advertising-jobs-like/
A reader gets in touch to point out that in the Guardian there is an advert for a part-time Assistant Director of Equality and Diversity at Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Trust. The salary for the winning candidate is £46,625 – £57,640 per annum. That’s more than a teacher in Inner London (on the upper pay ranges) earns. It’s more than is earned by a captain in the British army, and about the same as a Major.
As that article points out, the RC and St Johns have been helping out over the winters for years now, it's just that his year the charity decided to hire a hard left PR straight from the Guardian. The nakedly partisan hyperbole isn't helping the RC at all, comparing the UK to a war zone is such obvious bollocks that everyone just ignores it.0 -
If the result of the Birmingham Trojan horse plot is anything to go by, they will back to normal in a few months.isam said:0 -
@bigjohnowls are you watching panorama?0
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@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.0 -
PaywalledScott_P said:0 -
But for some reason skipped 83-87, 87-92, 92-97, 97-01, 01-05 and 05-10.RobD said:
I already did 2010-present!Philip_Thompson said:
Why are you analysing decades ago rather than any of the 5 completed Parliament's in-between?RobD said:
Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".justin124 said:
2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.RobD said:
I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.justin124 said:
Historically it would be very normal.RobD said:
Still quite a while.justin124 said:
If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.dr_spyn said:Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?
So my apologies but that's 6 subsequent Parliaments you skipped not 5!0 -
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Well Justin's point was that the gap has gotten smaller over time. I suppose 79-83 could be an outlier, but I thought it was good enough to look for a trend. Good enough for an internet argumentPhilip_Thompson said:
But for some reason skipped 83-87, 87-92, 92-97, 97-01, 01-05 and 05-10.RobD said:
I already did 2010-present!Philip_Thompson said:
Why are you analysing decades ago rather than any of the 5 completed Parliament's in-between?RobD said:
Same analysis for 79-83 Parliament: median 80 days, average 78 days, standard deviation 28 days. Not as much of an outlier, but still on the high end, and not "very normal".justin124 said:
2010 is very recent and we live in an age where by elections are much rarer than they once were.Increasingly parties have been inclined to rush by elections to prevent an opponent building up momentum etc. I recall the Hillhead by election. The Tory MP died at the end of 1981 with the by election taking place in the last week of March 1982.RobD said:
I just crunched the numbers, since 2010 the median delay between seat being vacant and by election was 38 days, average 48 (126 days for Batley 2016 and 134 days for Belfast West 2011 bring it up), standard deviation of 28 days. I'd say it looks like an outlier.justin124 said:
Historically it would be very normal.RobD said:
Still quite a while.justin124 said:
If that by election is held on May 4th the writ would be moved at the beginning of April - ie less than three months from now and two months after the departure of the sitting MP.dr_spyn said:Will Piers Morgan try and ask if not moving the writ for 4 months for the Copeland By-Election is good for Corbyn's Labour Party?
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?
So my apologies but that's 6 subsequent Parliaments you skipped not 5!
Amyway, am about to take off!0 -
Is Jezza pro Wenger? That doesn't seem an optimal strategy for getting Arsenal fans to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:Strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/8185451693058949120 -
Wales NHS is much worse than Englandtlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.0 -
President-elect Donald Trump is to make son-in-law Jared Kushner one of his senior advisers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-385644690 -
Very good from William Hague. It ticks all the right boxes. Shame he is not still in GovernmentPhilip_Thompson said:
PaywalledScott_P said:0 -
Seems highly unlikely. Worcester is forty miles from the Welsh border and a great deal further from anywhere in Wales that has a significant population.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.0 -
A very good article indeed, particularly the stuff about advertising. The era of the poster is surely over, 98% of Vote Leave's advertising were those "crap" online adds that were sprayed over the UK web during the last few months. All the advertising clever dicks were beaten by testing and volume. Which probably explains why Google are so rich, this crap works.chestnut said:
Fabulous read. Many thanks for the link.TGOHF said:FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.
Long but doesn't pull any punches.
https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/0 -
Newport is only 18 miles from the border with a population of 145,000 and 305,000 including the rural areaBlack_Rook said:
Seems highly unlikely. Worcester is forty miles from the Welsh border and a great deal further from anywhere in Wales that has a significant population.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.0 -
"It’s that last point that I find hard. Where are these new voters who will see JC in the same light as his enthusiastic backers going to come from?"
They aren't going to come from anywhere. If Corbyn relies on (disproportionately young) non-voters then he is on a hiding to nothing. Non-voters are called this for a reason.
Even in the EU referendum, which was claimed to be a matter of vital importance and interest to younger voters nervous about their future, turnout was still less than 6% higher than at the preceding general election. Too many of them are completely inured to the entire concept of voting and will never turn out, no matter how much they are entreated to do so; many others are vaguely aware that it might be a good idea, but quite simply can't be arsed.
Corbyn's strategy won't help him. As analysis by the Fabians and others has repeatedly demonstrated, the only viable route back to power for Labour lies through winning over millions of voters directly from the Conservatives. And it seems almost inconceivable that any significant proportion of those who voted for Cameron in 2015 will pick Corbyn over May.0 -
That's 70 miles from Worcester and an hour-and-a-half by road even in clear traffic. Firstly, why would sick people want to make that kind of a trip? Secondly, even if care in Newport were really that diabolical, why not go to Bristol instead? It's an awful lot closer!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Newport is only 18 miles from the border with a population of 145,000 and 305,000 including the rural areaBlack_Rook said:
Seems highly unlikely. Worcester is forty miles from the Welsh border and a great deal further from anywhere in Wales that has a significant population.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.0 -
We do punt a reasonable number of people over to Hereford for treatment, particularly chemotherapy. I have no idea whether that's a formal or informal arrangement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Newport is only 18 miles from the border with a population of 145,000 and 305,000 including the rural areaBlack_Rook said:
Seems highly unlikely. Worcester is forty miles from the Welsh border and a great deal further from anywhere in Wales that has a significant population.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.
I live in rural Monmouthshire, about 17 miles from Hereford.0 -
Any Arsenal fan who isn't pro-Wenger, for all his faults, is certifiably barmy.tlg86 said:
Is Jezza pro Wenger? That doesn't seem an optimal strategy for getting Arsenal fans to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:Strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/818545169305894912
In any case, like Donald Trump the aim is to be talked about. Mr Corbyn needs to up his clickworthiness, mind.0 -
Good news for Macron backers in the French Presidential election.
Latest poll shows Montebourg just edging ahead of Valls in the Socialist Primary second round.
Macrons best polling scenarios come with Valls out of the race.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN14S0ES?il=00 -
The article is absolutely scathing about "experts" whose track records go unexamined and the political commentariat and their superficial and cliched 'analysis'.glw said:
A very good article indeed, particularly the stuff about advertising. The era of the poster is surely over, 98% of Vote Leave's advertising were those "crap" online adds that were sprayed over the UK web during the last few months. All the advertising clever dicks were beaten by testing and volume. Which probably explains why Google are so rich, this crap works.chestnut said:
Fabulous read. Many thanks for the link.TGOHF said:FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.
Long but doesn't pull any punches.
https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/
I may be guilty of impartiality and liking the cut of his jib because it chimes with my own views!!
The Boris Maradona moment made me laugh.0 -
I was pro-Wenger until the summer of 2012. Since then I reckon he's done as he's told by the club and that means letting them chose who to sign. Mesut Ozil has told German press that his decision on a new contract will be influenced by Wenger saying (i.e. he wants Wenger to stay). If Wenger leaving will rid us of Ozil, I'd take that.AlastairMeeks said:
Any Arsenal fan who isn't pro-Wenger, for all his faults, is certifiably barmy.tlg86 said:
Is Jezza pro Wenger? That doesn't seem an optimal strategy for getting Arsenal fans to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:Strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/818545169305894912
In any case, like Donald Trump the aim is to be talked about. Mr Corbyn needs to up his clickworthiness, mind.0 -
Me too, I'm immensely skeptical of explanations about why X was inevitable, even though I frequently think like that myself. It's very hard to get out of the mindset of seeing easy explanations after the fact, and even being able to point to someone predicting something that fits afterwards doesn't mean they were right. It could be simple luck, coincidence, or merely one of many factors and not the most important one.chestnut said:The article is absolutely scathing about "experts" whose track records go unexamined and the political commentariat and their superficial and cliched 'analysis'.
I may be guilty of impartiality and liking the cut of his jib because it chimes with my own views!!
I think forecasting is a mugs game, barely above astrology, but it seems that explaining events afterwards is almost as error prone, the world isn't one were large scale events have a simple cause and effect. Every vote cast in an election has its own causes.
I regards to "whose track records go unexamined" I have said many times that if the journalists who write the sports and business pages were marked on their predictions there would be sackings across the board. I dare say that the news pages aren't any better, they are simply harder to evaluate, so it's easier to get away with writing nonsense for a living.0 -
How old is that pic of Morgan? Is it old fat or new fat?tlg86 said:
Is Jezza pro Wenger? That doesn't seem an optimal strategy for getting Arsenal fans to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:Strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/8185451693058949120 -
"significant proportion" is redundantBlack_Rook said:"It’s that last point that I find hard. Where are these new voters who will see JC in the same light as his enthusiastic backers going to come from?"
They aren't going to come from anywhere. If Corbyn relies on (disproportionately young) non-voters then he is on a hiding to nothing. Non-voters are called this for a reason.
Even in the EU referendum, which was claimed to be a matter of vital importance and interest to younger voters nervous about their future, turnout was still less than 6% higher than at the preceding general election. Too many of them are completely inured to the entire concept of voting and will never turn out, no matter how much they are entreated to do so; many others are vaguely aware that it might be a good idea, but quite simply can't be arsed.
Corbyn's strategy won't help him. As analysis by the Fabians and others has repeatedly demonstrated, the only viable route back to power for Labour lies through winning over millions of voters directly from the Conservatives. And it seems almost inconceivable that any significant proportion of those who voted for Cameron in 2015 will pick Corbyn over May.0 -
"clickworthiness" looks pretty much like "dickworthiness" to me. A new vote winner?AlastairMeeks said:
Any Arsenal fan who isn't pro-Wenger, for all his faults, is certifiably barmy.tlg86 said:
Is Jezza pro Wenger? That doesn't seem an optimal strategy for getting Arsenal fans to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:Strategy in action:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/818545169305894912
In any case, like Donald Trump the aim is to be talked about. Mr Corbyn needs to up his clickworthiness, mind.0 -
I think the overtly political healthcare system in the UK, is a problem, because people are wedded to a particular way of doing things for ideological reasons, and often find it very difficult to shift from their position even in the face of clear evidence that a change would be beneficial. This is on both sides of the political spectrum.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.
How supply of healthcare can be effectively rationed in the face of unlimited demand, is going to become a big political problem in the coming decade.
Hadn't thought of the Wales angle to the problems is Worcester, but it's a possibility.0 -
Klopp's observation about failed manager Gary Neville as a pundit hit the spot.tlg86 said:@glw - that's certainly true with sports journalists. Henry Winter - the most arrogant an pompous football writer out there - spent years telling everyone that signing Pep Guardiola would guarantee that club the Premier League title.
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Isn't the benefit of hindsight fantastic? It means I can write now about how wonderful it was to be talking up Theresa May at 10/1 for months on here, and winning big when she became Prime Minister.glw said:
Me too, I'm immensely skeptical of explanations about why X was inevitable, even though I frequently think like that myself. It's very hard to get out of the mindset of seeing easy explanations after the fact, and even being able to point to someone predicting something that fits afterwards doesn't mean they were right. It could be simple luck, coincidence, or merely one of many factors and not the most important one.chestnut said:The article is absolutely scathing about "experts" whose track records go unexamined and the political commentariat and their superficial and cliched 'analysis'.
I may be guilty of impartiality and liking the cut of his jib because it chimes with my own views!!
I think forecasting is a mugs game, barely above astrology, but it seems that explaining events afterwards is almost as error prone, the world isn't one were large scale events have a simple cause and effect. Every vote cast in an election has its own causes.
I regards to "whose track records go unexamined" I have said many times that if the journalists who write the sports and business pages were marked on their predictions there would be sackings across the board. I dare say that the news pages aren't any better, they are simply harder to evaluate, so it's easier to get away with writing nonsense for a living.
Yet in truth I probably got lucky - although I will maintain that the MPs would never have gone for Boris.0 -
What annoys me about this issue is that like you I can see that there will be problems ahead and we'll have to take some difficult decisions which probably involves us paying more in tax. Yet when I see the Left howling about this I sort of think that they themselves are less bothered about the difficulties we face and are more concerned with scoring political points.Sandpit said:
I think the overtly political healthcare system in the UK, is a problem, because people are wedded to a particular way of doing things for ideological reasons, and often find it very difficult to shift from their position even in the face of clear evidence that a change would be beneficial. This is on both sides of the political spectrum.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.
How supply of healthcare can be effectively rationed in the face of unlimited demand, is going to become a big political problem in the coming decade.
Hadn't thought of the Wales angle to the problems is Worcester, but it's a possibility.0 -
-
The thing that always gets me about football writing is that Saturday morning you can read "why A will win today", and Monday morning the same journalist will be explaining "why B won" without any reference to the completely erroneous prediction from two days earlier.tlg86 said:@glw - that's certainly true with sports journalists. Henry Winter - the most arrogant an pompous football writer out there - spent years telling everyone that signing Pep Guardiola would guarantee that club the Premier League title.
0 -
All round an interesting read. The principals of advertising messaging haven't changed. DC is just talking about how he got the messages accross. Without blowing my own trumpet I more or less correctly identified which messages were getting through and why. Whether through digital posters press or TV is just mechanics. The 'message' was as always the only thing that mattered. To suggest big agencies would have disadvantaged him is only correct in that he saved their commission. They are as smart as anyone in knowing how to get a bang for their buck.glw said:
A very good article indeed, particularly the stuff about advertising. The era of the poster is surely over, 98% of Vote Leave's advertising were those "crap" online adds that were sprayed over the UK web during the last few months. All the advertising clever dicks were beaten by testing and volume. Which probably explains why Google are so rich, this crap works.chestnut said:
Fabulous read. Many thanks for the link.TGOHF said:FPT : an amazing insight into the referendum tactics from Dominic Cummings.
Long but doesn't pull any punches.
https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/
(It should be said though that some agencies wouldn't have been prepared to be associated with their PPB's for fear of reputational damage)0 -
I do like Klopp, he does seem to know his business and is not afraid to call out some of the sillier media nonsense.chestnut said:
Klopp's observation about failed manager Gary Neville as a pundit hit the spot.tlg86 said:@glw - that's certainly true with sports journalists. Henry Winter - the most arrogant an pompous football writer out there - spent years telling everyone that signing Pep Guardiola would guarantee that club the Premier League title.
0 -
I've said for years that Boris "can't be PM", but we live in a world where Corbyn has been elected leader twice, and Trump will soon be the most powerful person in the world. So I may have to rethink my views on what is truly unthinkable.Sandpit said:Yet in truth I probably got lucky - although I will maintain that the MPs would never have gone for Boris.
0 -
Many moons ago when I worked in the City (in a non-charlatan capacity), I was sometimes asked about market movements and my stock answer (more or less polite depending upon questioner) was that "if I knew that I would be on a beach somewhere with a blonde and a long drink, not sitting here talking to you". The City charlatan's line is a bit different of course, as are those of the journalistic and economic tipsters.glw said:
Me too, I'm immensely skeptical of explanations about why X was inevitable, even though I frequently think like that myself. It's very hard to get out of the mindset of seeing easy explanations after the fact, and even being able to point to someone predicting something that fits afterwards doesn't mean they were right. It could be simple luck, coincidence, or merely one of many factors and not the most important one.chestnut said:The article is absolutely scathing about "experts" whose track records go unexamined and the political commentariat and their superficial and cliched 'analysis'.
I may be guilty of impartiality and liking the cut of his jib because it chimes with my own views!!
I think forecasting is a mugs game, barely above astrology, but it seems that explaining events afterwards is almost as error prone, the world isn't one were large scale events have a simple cause and effect. Every vote cast in an election has its own causes.
I regards to "whose track records go unexamined" I have said many times that if the journalists who write the sports and business pages were marked on their predictions there would be sackings across the board. I dare say that the news pages aren't any better, they are simply harder to evaluate, so it's easier to get away with writing nonsense for a living.0 -
Montebourg may not get through to face Valls in the second round, Hamon is now just 3% behind Montebourg in that poll with Valls clearly in front in round one. A Harris poll on the 4th January had Valls beating Montebourg 55% to 45% in the second round and Hamon 57% to 43%BudG said:Good news for Macron backers in the French Presidential election.
Latest poll shows Montebourg just edging ahead of Valls in the Socialist Primary second round.
Macrons best polling scenarios come with Valls out of the race.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN14S0ES?il=0
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/01/Rapport-Harris-Intentions-de-vote-à-la-primaire-du-PS-et-de-ses-alliés-France-TV.pdf0 -
Hmmm. I think it probably will. When they're firing there isn't a team to touch them and that wasn't the case last season with the same players -only younger!tlg86 said:@glw - that's certainly true with sports journalists. Henry Winter - the most arrogant an pompous football writer out there - spent years telling everyone that signing Pep Guardiola would guarantee that club the Premier League title.
0 -
If there were no NHS today and our Government was looking to implement a programme of socialised healthcare for the first time, it would probably not propose the creation of anything like the NHS. A system of subsidised health insurance would probably be introduced instead. But we are where we are.Sandpit said:
I think the overtly political healthcare system in the UK, is a problem, because people are wedded to a particular way of doing things for ideological reasons, and often find it very difficult to shift from their position even in the face of clear evidence that a change would be beneficial. This is on both sides of the political spectrum.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.
How supply of healthcare can be effectively rationed in the face of unlimited demand, is going to become a big political problem in the coming decade.
My guess would be that a state-dominated healthcare system will continue, but that there will eventually have to be charging if the enormous bill for looking after the elderly is to be afforded. That will mean higher prescription charges for working people, and in particular co-payments for visits to the GP, and perhaps also for people presenting themselves at A&E departments demanding non-urgent treatment. The Government might also look at new tax-breaks to encourage better-off people to take out private health insurance, and the rationing or withdrawal of some NHS services.
People want the NHS to do everything for them and do it for free, but they aren't prepared to pay enough tax for the state to pay for that commitment, alongside everything else that it is meant to do. Something's gotta give.0 -
Doc Nuttall has the Brexit plan sorted.
https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/8184056248957214730 -
Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.0
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Everton away and Spurs at home in their next two league games will give a big indication about whether they can catch Chelsea. The great thing about the league this season is that the big teams have to go for wins every week. Draws are just not good enough.Roger said:
Hmmm. I think it probably will. When they're firing there isn't a team to touch them and that wasn't the case last season with the same players -only younger!tlg86 said:@glw - that's certainly true with sports journalists. Henry Winter - the most arrogant an pompous football writer out there - spent years telling everyone that signing Pep Guardiola would guarantee that club the Premier League title.
0 -
A point I have voiced many, many times myself. If I knew what shares were going to rise I sure as hell wouldn't tell anyone else, so why are there so many people who make a living from doing so?ReggieCide said:Many moons ago when I worked in the City (in a non-charlatan capacity), I was sometimes asked about market movements and my stock answer (more or less polite depending upon questioner) was that "if I knew that I would be on a beach somewhere with a blonde and a long drink, not sitting here talking to you". The City charlatan's line is a bit different of course, as are those of the journalistic and economic tipsters.
0 -
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise. If the Tories ever get rid of May it will only be for a hardline Brexiteer like Fox, Leadsom or Patterson because the Brexit deal she was heading for was not hard enoughAlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
Yes, missed Hamon closing fast, He certainly appear to have the momentum with him, to catch Montebourg possibly and even closing the gap with Valls maybe.HYUFD said:
Montebourg may not get through to face Valls in the second round, Hamon is now just 3% behind Montebourg in that poll with Valls clearly in front in round one. A Harris poll on the 4th January had Valls beating Montebourg 55% to 45% in the second round and Hamon 57% to 43%BudG said:Good news for Macron backers in the French Presidential election.
Latest poll shows Montebourg just edging ahead of Valls in the Socialist Primary second round.
Macrons best polling scenarios come with Valls out of the race.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN14S0ES?il=0
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/01/Rapport-Harris-Intentions-de-vote-à-la-primaire-du-PS-et-de-ses-alliés-France-TV.pdf0 -
But she is popular with the voters and would win an election with an increased majorityAlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
I guess having experienced other countries, where healthcare just happens without politicians going on about it all the time, makes me think that there are easier ways of providing healthcare, without the constant reorganisations of a monolith with a million employees taking up c.8% of GDP.tlg86 said:
What annoys me about this issue is that like you I can see that there will be problems ahead and we'll have to take some difficult decisions which probably involves us paying more in tax. Yet when I see the Left howling about this I sort of think that they themselves are less bothered about the difficulties we face and are more concerned with scoring political points.Sandpit said:
I think the overtly political healthcare system in the UK, is a problem, because people are wedded to a particular way of doing things for ideological reasons, and often find it very difficult to shift from their position even in the face of clear evidence that a change would be beneficial. This is on both sides of the political spectrum.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.
How supply of healthcare can be effectively rationed in the face of unlimited demand, is going to become a big political problem in the coming decade.
Hadn't thought of the Wales angle to the problems is Worcester, but it's a possibility.
Often the simple of effective reforms are politically difficult, and no-one appears willing to think outside the box organisationally. For example a quick way of dropping NHS demand, and helping the general economy in several ways, would be to reverse the benefit-in-kind income tax treatment for employer-provided private healthcare. If the NHS has a problem with recruitment of nurses, why don't they do something like set up a nursing college in Manila, offering British qualifications and fast track visa processing?
The latest comments from the Red Cross was just the latest example of politics and media becoming increasingly sensationalised and operating in soundbites and hyperbole - it removes the sensible discussion about whats possible and achieveable, in favour of getting tomorrow's headline.
Look at the stick the PM is getting from all quarters for taking her time preparing for the EU exit negotiations - most of it from the same people who would deride her as being woefully unprepared, if she were to have opened her mouth on the subject in the past six months.
0 -
I'd be genuinely interested to see someone post another Bruce Anderson article that was unsupportive in the round of a serving Conservative party leader. He's famous for being loyal.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
Well well...
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/818580718142033920
This, I admit, I did not see coming.0 -
Lets bring back the Groat and do away with en suite bathroomswilliamglenn said:Doc Nuttall has the Brexit plan sorted.
https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/8184056248957214730 -
-
Bruce Anderson said John Major would beat Blair in 1997 which tells you not to read too much into what he says. According to the ICM poll today May would win as big an election victory today as Blair did then, at least in the popular voteAlastairMeeks said:
I'd be genuinely interested to see someone post another Bruce Anderson article that was unsupportive in the round of a serving Conservative party leader. He's famous for being loyal.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
Looks like it could be a tight finishBudG said:
Yes, missed Hamon closing fast, He certainly appear to have the momentum with him, to catch Montebourg possibly and even closing the gap with Valls maybe.HYUFD said:
Montebourg may not get through to face Valls in the second round, Hamon is now just 3% behind Montebourg in that poll with Valls clearly in front in round one. A Harris poll on the 4th January had Valls beating Montebourg 55% to 45% in the second round and Hamon 57% to 43%BudG said:Good news for Macron backers in the French Presidential election.
Latest poll shows Montebourg just edging ahead of Valls in the Socialist Primary second round.
Macrons best polling scenarios come with Valls out of the race.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN14S0ES?il=0
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/01/Rapport-Harris-Intentions-de-vote-à-la-primaire-du-PS-et-de-ses-alliés-France-TV.pdf0 -
You're making my point for me. It's quite a feat to alienate such an extreme Conservative loyalist.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson said John Major would beat Blair in 1997 which tells you not to read too much into what he says. According to the ICM poll today May would win as big an election victory today as Blair did then, at least in the popular voteAlastairMeeks said:
I'd be genuinely interested to see someone post another Bruce Anderson article that was unsupportive in the round of a serving Conservative party leader. He's famous for being loyal.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
Ah, excitement over. He wants "full access" to single market, apparently.Black_Rook said:Well well...
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/818580718142033920
This, I admit, I did not see coming.
This is bound to require acceptance of the four freedoms, including that of movement of people.
Corbyn is pretending to be interested in managed migration, but actually this represents no change to Labour's position, insofar as it has one at all.
It's bollocks.0 -
He still wants full single market access and the focus seems to be on the undercutting of pay and conditions, closing down labour loopholes and banning jobs being exclusively advertised abroad could bring down the amount of people travelling to the UK.Black_Rook said:Well well...
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/818580718142033920
This, I admit, I did not see coming.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/09/jeremy-corbyn-uk-is-better-off-out-of-eu-with-managed-migration?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
Yes, agree completely. The biggie is the interaction between the NHS and social care, where too many elderly are stuck in expensive hospitals for non-clinical reasons. There are some pilot schemes of more joined-up organisation which appear to be going well, but there's a lot more work to do in this area.Black_Rook said:
If there were no NHS today and our Government was looking to implement a programme of socialised healthcare for the first time, it would probably not propose the creation of anything like the NHS. A system of subsidised health insurance would probably be introduced instead. But we are where we are.Sandpit said:
I think the overtly political healthcare system in the UK, is a problem, because people are wedded to a particular way of doing things for ideological reasons, and often find it very difficult to shift from their position even in the face of clear evidence that a change would be beneficial. This is on both sides of the political spectrum.tlg86 said:@Sandpit - it's precisely because of nonsense like that that I was opposed to Leave campaigning to give an extra £350 million a week to the NHS.
My dad made a good point tonight. He wonders if the problems in Worcester have something to do with its proximity to Wales. We know (though the media don't like to talk about it) that the NHS in Wales has had its problems so I wonder if people are going across the border to get care.
How supply of healthcare can be effectively rationed in the face of unlimited demand, is going to become a big political problem in the coming decade.
My guess would be that a state-dominated healthcare system will continue, but that there will eventually have to be charging if the enormous bill for looking after the elderly is to be afforded. That will mean higher prescription charges for working people, and in particular co-payments for visits to the GP, and perhaps also for people presenting themselves at A&E departments demanding non-urgent treatment. The Government might also look at new tax-breaks to encourage better-off people to take out private health insurance, and the rationing or withdrawal of some NHS services.
People want the NHS to do everything for them and do it for free, but they aren't prepared to pay enough tax for the state to pay for that commitment, alongside everything else that it is meant to do. Something's gotta give.
I'd say local taxes need to go up, more charges for NHS services are needed, and people need to be encouraged into private healthcare if possible. Organisationally, I'd probably devolve a lot of what the DoH does down to the local authorities and Trusts (inc salaries). Let things that are better done nationally, such as procurement of drugs and expensive equipment, be done at that level.0 -
I think the Tory Brexit hardliners may be much more vociferous than they are numerous, and that some of the hardliners aren't as uncompromising as they pretend. In my experience (now pretty dated to be sure), pre-negotiation posturing is the norm. A bit like the haka.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise. If the Tories ever get rid of May it will only be for a hardline Brexiteer like Fox, Leadsom or Patterson because the Brexit deal she was heading for was not hard enoughAlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
Relaunching something that won't change, its a bit like the old definition of insanity.
On the Trump front, someone is clearly determined to get his links to Russian mob money out. Just for reference, the Russian mob and the Russian Intelligence services are closely linked.0 -
Is this what happens when you attack the press?
@sundersays: Process point: Jeremy Corbyn free movement quotes were embargoed for 10pm. But it didn't make the BBC ten news. (I didn't see/check re ITN).0 -
Anderson is not 'an extreme Conservative loyalist' he is a journalist and close friend of David Cameron so hardly surprising he is not exactly in love with May, he certainly was not always effusive about William Hague and said he won the leadership because of his opponents' negativesAlastairMeeks said:
You're making my point for me. It's quite a feat to alienate such an extreme Conservative loyalist.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson said John Major would beat Blair in 1997 which tells you not to read too much into what he says. According to the ICM poll today May would win as big an election victory today as Blair did then, at least in the popular voteAlastairMeeks said:
I'd be genuinely interested to see someone post another Bruce Anderson article that was unsupportive in the round of a serving Conservative party leader. He's famous for being loyal.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/14th-june-1997/8/politics0 -
0
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Yeah, because when Corbyn starts making mutually exclusive demands, we know the game is up...SeanT said:This should surely crush the last lingering dreams of the ultra-Remainers. We're OUT.
"I fight on. I fight to win."0 -
Bbc too busy covering the UK humanitarian crisis...Scott_P said:Is this what happens when you attack the press?
@sundersays: Process point: Jeremy Corbyn free movement quotes were embargoed for 10pm. But it didn't make the BBC ten news. (I didn't see/check re ITN).0 -
Wait until the LDs come storming through to win the inevitable snap GE in May.SeanT said:
This should surely crush the last lingering dreams of the ultra-Remainers. We're OUT.Black_Rook said:Well well...
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/818580718142033920
This, I admit, I did not see coming.0 -
If only my enemies could be so cruel about me as Bruce Anderson was about William Hague in that article.HYUFD said:
Anderson is not 'an extreme Conservative loyalist' he is a journalist and close friend of David Cameron so hardly surprising he is not exactly in love with May, he certainly was not always loyal to William Hague and said he won the leadership because of his opponents' negativesAlastairMeeks said:
You're making my point for me. It's quite a feat to alienate such an extreme Conservative loyalist.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson said John Major would beat Blair in 1997 which tells you not to read too much into what he says. According to the ICM poll today May would win as big an election victory today as Blair did then, at least in the popular voteAlastairMeeks said:
I'd be genuinely interested to see someone post another Bruce Anderson article that was unsupportive in the round of a serving Conservative party leader. He's famous for being loyal.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/14th-june-1997/8/politics0 -
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So even the BBC are ignoring him now, or are they just ignoring anyone who disagrees with unlimited movement of people?Scott_P said:Is this what happens when you attack the press?
@sundersays: Process point: Jeremy Corbyn free movement quotes were embargoed for 10pm. But it didn't make the BBC ten news. (I didn't see/check re ITN).0 -
PS @SeanT Re: Banning the burqa, there's an alternative eye-catching totemic policy shift available to Labour if they're canny:
https://www.change.org/p/rt-hon-theresa-may-mp-to-ban-halal-slaughter-in-the-uk0 -
It just means the ultra-Remainers in Labour who have not already gone will switch to the LDs but Brexit is going to happen anywaySeanT said:
This should surely crush the last lingering dreams of the ultra-Remainers. We're OUT.Black_Rook said:Well well...
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/818580718142033920
This, I admit, I did not see coming.0 -
Remember when bbc fav postman pat dared to sound tough on drugs, tough on the causes of drugs....Alan Johnson got serious incoming from the bbc! None of the usual friendly friendly he just a nice bloke from a tough background stuff.Sandpit said:
So even the BBC are ignoring him now, or are they just ignoring anyone who disagrees with unlimited movement of people?Scott_P said:Is this what happens when you attack the press?
@sundersays: Process point: Jeremy Corbyn free movement quotes were embargoed for 10pm. But it didn't make the BBC ten news. (I didn't see/check re ITN).
0 -
Unless it is full hard Brexit with migration controlled by a points system and no more budget contributions to the EU there will certainly be an element of the Tory right, Cash, Redwood, IDS, Patterson etc as well as UKIP who will still see any Brexit deal as not having gone far enoughReggieCide said:
I think the Tory Brexit hardliners may be much more vociferous than they are numerous, and that some of the hardliners aren't as uncompromising as they pretend. In my experience (now pretty dated to be sure), pre-negotiation posturing is the norm. A bit like the haka.HYUFD said:
Bruce Anderson changes his mind every 5 minutes, a few years ago he could not stand David Davis in this article he gives him high praise. If the Tories ever get rid of May it will only be for a hardline Brexiteer like Fox, Leadsom or Patterson because the Brexit deal she was heading for was not hard enoughAlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has managed quite a feat. I cannot recall Bruce Anderson ever previously being disobliging about a serving Conservative party leader.
0 -
Oh dear....why do I feel this will be start of a number of stories on this.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8185889264117391380
