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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After 16 months of Corbyn Mark 1 get ready folk for this week’s launch of Corbyn Mark 2
Above is part of a Newnight discussion that I was part of last week which, amongst other things, examined the position of Jeremy Corbyn and whether there was any chance of recovery. I was pretty blunt in the programme though the views expressed were ones which have repeatedly been made before. It was interesting in the programme that the JC-backer in the discussion responded to my points by attacking the media.
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He seems to think there is a chance of a Trump/Brexit style undercurrent of Corbynism popularity that hasn't shown its face yet, although I think the other two phenomena were different in that they appealed en masse to everyday folk.
Most people I know think Corbyn is a nutter, so much so that the only time one of my mates has ever talked politics was to say "who on earth is that c*nt in charge of Labour?"
I think it's a stretch, to be honest. PB's neither a broadcaster nor a newspaper.
But, you know what, it can't be worse than what he's been doing already and he's, frankly, terrible at handling the press so why not just go all-in mardy bum on them. Why not.
Let X be X only works if the problem isn't X.
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/818512088113020934
I think all the 35 who nominated but then didn't support him in particular deserve to see Labour take the utter thrashing it will inevitably get in 2020, harsh lessons are seldom learnt easily.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4098450/DAN-HODGES-Labour-secret-weapon-kill-Corbyn-apathy.html
Edited extra bit: as a general strategy, I mean. Assuming his successor doesn't pursue the same losing approach.
Set up a political party? They couldn't set up a Gmail account.
he looks like my dad when he was first diagnosed with Parkinsons
MMcG referred to his health in the interview, questionable if he would have stayed in office much longer imo
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/818486105486032896
Long but doesn't pull any punches.
https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/818521746374590464
Since I don't think he's up to the job, I don't think it's going to work.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/818524192593289217
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/818524344385228800
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-01-09/poll-shows-labour-seats-at-risk/
Lab: 22
Con: 14
PC: 14
UKIP: 8
LD:2
Total: 60, Majority: 31
All good for my 'Only London is Labour' provincial poster campaign!
"Over and over again outside London people would rant about how they had not/barely recovered from this recession ‘while the politicians and bankers and businessmen in London all keep raking in the money and us mugs on PAYE are paying for the bailouts, now they’re saying we’ve just got to put up with the EU being crap or else we’ll be unemployed, I don’t buy it, they’ve been wrong about everything else…’ All those amazed at why so little attention was paid to ‘the experts’ did not, and still do not, appreciate that these ‘experts’ are seen by most people of all political views as having botched financial regulation, made a load of rubbish predictions, then forced everybody else outside London to pay for the mess while they got richer and dodged responsibility. They are right. This is exactly what happened."
* the Dutch election on 15 March, when Geert Wilders's PVV are strong favourites to win the most seats
* a big Brexit story on or before 31 March, whether it's the filing of A50 (unlikely in my opinion) or an announcement that the filing will be delayed
Both of these stories will bring narrative tension in France.
* Wilders wins, but he doesn't win, because other parties form a coalition against him. Meet the ideas of "politicians still don't get what the population are telling them" and "one last push".
* Brexit: meet the idea of "what should France do in response?"
Fillon and Macron answer this question how, exactly? Should France cuddle up with Germany, or should she get together with Britain? Bear in mind that generally speaking the French greatly prefer the rosbifs to the Boche.
Imagine we've got the TV news on. Geert Wilders is being interviewed...and he's saying the Netherlands should leave the eurozone ("Wilders for the guilder"?). And what's this? Le Pen is saying bring back the franc. And here's May, saying Britain's going to thrive outside of the EU. Now comes Merkel... She's saying the EU must hold together. And Fillon and Macron are saying yes Angela, but not quite three bags full, because there are some details and blah blah blah. Then there are Trump and Farage.
Meanwhile, Le Pen is presenting herself as the woman of the moment, standing in front of the slogan "In the name of the people".
When things hot up, I doubt that Fillon and Macron will both hold their current poll scores. Le Pen is underpriced.
The problem is that PC would get damaged by association with Labour (see Lib Dems in Scotland before Scottish Labour's death) so might prefer a confidence and supply arrangement over full coalition.
To be honest given how normal it has come to go to the polls in May it doesn't seem at all bizarre to wait.
Lowest poll rating on the Assembly constituency vote worst since Yougov's first ever Welsh poll in 2009
Furthermore A & E in Wales are in a state of crisis even worse than England
Also a recent test of the Welsh GCE maths paper was sat by Korean students who completed it in 15 minutes of the 60 minutes allocated. When asked the Korean tutor said that the Welsh maths paper was equivalent to their PRIMARY level test. Korea in the top 7 Pisa test - Wales at 36
And all of this under labour
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/09/us-special-forces-carry-ground-raid-against-isil/
My advice ... can you teach him to dance and go on Strictly?
They also received their [then] lowest ever list share in 2007 and lost a seat ending with their [then] lowest ever seat total.
If we apply uniformly across Wales the changes to party support since the May 2015 general election that are implied by this poll, on the current seat boundaries, we get the following projected result (with all seats won by a party at last year’s general election remaining in their hands unless stated otherwise):
Labour: 24 seats (losing Ynys Môn)
Conservative: 11 seats (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
What about the new electoral map for Wales proposed by the Boundary Commission at the end of the summer? Under those boundaries – and using the ‘notional’ 2015 results for those boundaries produced by Anthony Wells of YouGov – this poll projects the following outcome:
Labour: 14 seats
Conservative: 11 seats
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat
Courtesy: Number Cruncher Politics
To blame the press for the predictable consequences of her failure to be honest with the British people is disingenuous to say the least.
https://twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/818526891833524225
Of course we could speculate on which associations caused the SLD's (current) lowest ever constituency share, their (current) equal lowest seat total and their (current) equal lowest list share.
Still, since we now live in age you describe, surely we should be comparing to by elections held in that age?
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/home-affairs/immigration/news/78693/eu-migrants-will-need-job-access-britain-after-brexit
1999: 12.43%
2007: 11.3%
They lost more than double what you claimed over the 8 years.