Quite seriously, the US Republican establishment gave a great deal of attention to Thucydides On the Peloponnesian War at the time of Gulf Wars 1 and 2. They would do well to turn their attention to Suetonius and Gibbon on the loopier Emperors to prepare for Trump Imperator.
I do struggle to imagine what a Trump inaugural will look like. He does so few fully-scripted speeches that we have surprisingly little to go on. That said 'The Apprentice' at 33/1 seems like value; he does like talking about himself. Brexit at 5/1 might also be worth a shot, given that it's reasonable to use that term in the context of resetting America's European policy.
"Tremendous" at 6/4 might be the value there, or "ISIS" at 1/2.
"Make America Great Again" at 1/50 might be good if he'll let me have ten grand on it, but that's not going to happen.
The rest is @Shadsy getting his 2017 bonus in the bank early!
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
Higher inflation will erode the national debt
About 25% of gilts are index linked.
The UK 0.15% 2068 index linked gilts yield negative 1.5% real for more than 50 years. In a best case scenario, you lose two thirds of your purchasing power over the next half century.
Yes, I wasn't touting them I was pointing out that inflation is not the free ride it was for the govt before linkers were a thing.
Wasn't the 'Project Fear' worst case scenario that the economy would be 4% smaller than it would otherwise have been by 2030?
How will we ever know?
Of the top of my head it was 31% growth versus 37% growth, and that was for a relatively pessimistic scenario. Not that anybody is capable of accurately forecasting 14 years ahead, as it was. Besides that, the economy has much bigger issues than EU membership.
I do struggle to imagine what a Trump inaugural will look like. He does so few fully-scripted speeches that we have surprisingly little to go on. That said 'The Apprentice' at 33/1 seems like value; he does like talking about himself. Brexit at 5/1 might also be worth a shot, given that it's reasonable to use that term in the context of resetting America's European policy.
"Tremendous" at 6/4 might be the value there, or "ISIS" at 1/2.
"Make America Great Again" at 1/50 might be good if he'll let me have ten grand on it, but that's not going to happen.
The rest is @Shadsy getting his 2017 bonus in the bank early!
Not quite sure about ISIS. It's short odds and there are plenty of alternative names for it (though Trump does tend to use that one).
I do struggle to imagine what a Trump inaugural will look like. He does so few fully-scripted speeches that we have surprisingly little to go on. That said 'The Apprentice' at 33/1 seems like value; he does like talking about himself. Brexit at 5/1 might also be worth a shot, given that it's reasonable to use that term in the context of resetting America's European policy.
I don't immediately see any value there.
Some suggestions here on what his speech might contain:
So it was. Memory is playing tricks. I would have sworn I had come across the phrase when translating his Gallic wars. And it was only 40 odd years ago too...
A ten minute interlude between meetings and I find that I missed a Diane Abbott for Labour leader thread over the weekend!
Lets be clear. Abbott as leader would be all new levels of batshit crazy. TSE noted that she is a polished media performer and erudite and educated. But she's also utterly crazy.
But given the death spiral that my party is now in, all things are possible. And as I pointed out she ticks so many boxes for people more interested in token gestures than winning power and doing anything of substance.
As for nominations I say this - Reed won't be the only "moderate" taking the Chiltern Hundreds this year. I expect Labour will lose his seat in the byelection especially our candidate is one of the "I joined the party last year because of Jeremy Corbyn" applicants. As we will other byelections where others decide they have had enough.
Because aside from the vote-repellent nature of Corbyn he's also activist-repellent. The people who do the actual work week in week out don't see the point the way they did, and aside from a very small number of Corbynite activists the vast majority of new members have no interest in doing anything other than vote for Him. So bring about another byelection in a low majority swing seat, have the fiasco of the national party to content with and few bodies on the ground, and our MPs tally is only heading in the one direction. And the more moderates go, the fewer the blockages to Abbott getting the nomination.
As a Co-operative Party member I'd like the stores of Lab/Co-op MPs doing a reverse takeover of the Co-op to be true. I'm not sure the Labour brand will survive this.
I do struggle to imagine what a Trump inaugural will look like. He does so few fully-scripted speeches that we have surprisingly little to go on. That said 'The Apprentice' at 33/1 seems like value; he does like talking about himself. Brexit at 5/1 might also be worth a shot, given that it's reasonable to use that term in the context of resetting America's European policy.
"Tremendous" at 6/4 might be the value there, or "ISIS" at 1/2.
"Make America Great Again" at 1/50 might be good if he'll let me have ten grand on it, but that's not going to happen.
The rest is @Shadsy getting his 2017 bonus in the bank early!
Not quite sure about ISIS. It's short odds and there are plenty of alternative names for it (though Trump does tend to use that one).
The key is going to be the tone of the speech. I'm guessing (and one never really knows with Trump!) that the speech will be relatively formal and scripted, even more so than his speech on election night. He won't say anything too controversial and will want a lot of important people to see him as a serious, Presidential figure.
I guess these are supposed to be fun bets to laugh about while watching, so might spread a fiver around a few of them.
I am finding his use of twitter fascinating. We have never seen anything quite like it. He has created a new and very powerful bully pulpit for the Presidency before he even takes office. It's not all good of course but it is very interesting.
We will see though if Dave's Twitter maxim comes to pass.
Comments
Put a small sum on 'Heal the wounds'. Used it or very similar in his victory speech and Trump likes repetition.
"Make America Great Again" at 1/50 might be good if he'll let me have ten grand on it, but that's not going to happen.
The rest is @Shadsy getting his 2017 bonus in the bank early!
"Vidi, Vici, Veni"
Mr. L, Pontus, not Gaul. It's a reference to defeating Pharnaces II.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharnaces_II_of_Pontus
"Vae, puto deus fio #MORTEM"
"Pecunia non olet"
Harold: "Epic home win at #StamfordBridge today. Can't wait for the next round on the south coast."
Mohammed: "1/6416354 A few words on behalf of God ..."
Freud: "Interesting dream last night"
|
Jung "Don't tell me: more phallic imagery? #obsessed"
KingofKings: "Is this embassy in a public or private capacity?"
SpartanEnvoy: "If successful, public. If not, private."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/09/rolls-royce-enjoys-record-demand-second-best-year-ever/
Some suggestions here on what his speech might contain:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/01/06/trump_to_stress_unity_in_inaugural_speech_aide_says_132730.html
https://twitter.com/joshuarozenberg/status/818353603249340416
#Hastings - that's one in the eye to @KingHarold LOL!
Edited extra bit: must be off.
Lets be clear. Abbott as leader would be all new levels of batshit crazy. TSE noted that she is a polished media performer and erudite and educated. But she's also utterly crazy.
But given the death spiral that my party is now in, all things are possible. And as I pointed out she ticks so many boxes for people more interested in token gestures than winning power and doing anything of substance.
As for nominations I say this - Reed won't be the only "moderate" taking the Chiltern Hundreds this year. I expect Labour will lose his seat in the byelection especially our candidate is one of the "I joined the party last year because of Jeremy Corbyn" applicants. As we will other byelections where others decide they have had enough.
Because aside from the vote-repellent nature of Corbyn he's also activist-repellent. The people who do the actual work week in week out don't see the point the way they did, and aside from a very small number of Corbynite activists the vast majority of new members have no interest in doing anything other than vote for Him. So bring about another byelection in a low majority swing seat, have the fiasco of the national party to content with and few bodies on the ground, and our MPs tally is only heading in the one direction. And the more moderates go, the fewer the blockages to Abbott getting the nomination.
As a Co-operative Party member I'd like the stores of Lab/Co-op MPs doing a reverse takeover of the Co-op to be true. I'm not sure the Labour brand will survive this.
I guess these are supposed to be fun bets to laugh about while watching, so might spread a fiver around a few of them.
June: indyref2 is highly likely
Last week: soft Brexit shelves indyref2
Today: no indyref2 in 2017
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