LOL, usual Tory using the witterings of a fool as "supposed" truth. If a Tory's lip are moving she is lying.
Your usual level of engagement with an argument you've repeatedly lost.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
The argument has never been lost , your claim that the rUK would welch on paying pensions it is obligated to do, that people have paid contributions for , is preposterous. Though I would expect no less from a rapaacious Tory would would be happy to pocket it at the expense of the poor and disabled. If it did then it would be perfect for Scotland as they woudl not have to pay teh rUK's £1.5 trillion debt and funding pensions would be chickenfeed. Back to grazing.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
It's certainly interesting to count the number of hats Davidson has worn in regard to Brexit. Before the Indy referendum she said voting No means we remain a member of the EU, before the 2015 GE she said yes, the Tories would have a referendum on EU membership, but only in the unlikely event of a Tory majority, before the EU referendum that Remain was very much in the best interests of Scotland, immediately afterwards that remaining in the single market was an absolute priority, and now she's a born again Brexiteer supporting whatever yet-to-be-decided form that May and her Leave underlings lash up.
Ruth is nothing if not adaptable.
You mean lacking any principles and will use anything possible for self aggrandisement
Who could she have learned that from?
It is the infamous chuckle siblings tag team on now, I must have struck a nerve.
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
I think you are right, many businesses still believe it will work out "alright on the night" and we will get some sort of muddy compromise that suits them and the government couldn't be so stupid as to slide into WTO trading. They think May is bluffing about the single market to get the best deal.
They may be right, none of us knows. The day it becomes fact that we are leaving the SM and reverting to WTO rules is the day to really start watching the economic indicators.
Look how Germany has done on entering the Euro with a devalued currency.
Edited to add bit about Germany
I don't think that's true. Germany was the "sick man of the Euro" (as the Economist cover put it) for the first five years of its existence. It was only after the Hartz reforms freed up the labour market that its growth accelerated.
According to the radio this morning people were stunned to "see an iPod combined with a phone". This is not even close to true, firstly the iPhone was widely expected to debut around that time and stories had being running about if for years before, and secondly Apple and Motorola had already created a phone with iTunes built-in. The iPhone was a lot more exciting than was expected, but it was expected.
Look how Germany has done on entering the Euro with a devalued currency.
Edited to add bit about Germany
I don't think that's true. Germany was the "sick man of the Euro" (as the Economist cover put it) for the first five years of its existence. It was only after the Hartz reforms freed up the labour market that its growth accelerated.
And during that period it was generally thought that Germany had entered the Euro at too high an exchange rate.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
It's certainly interesting to count the number of hats Davidson has worn in regard to Brexit. Before the Indy referendum she said voting No means we remain a member of the EU, before the 2015 GE she said yes, the Tories would have a referendum on EU membership, but only in the unlikely event of a Tory majority, before the EU referendum that Remain was very much in the best interests of Scotland, immediately afterwards that remaining in the single market was an absolute priority, and now she's a born again Brexiteer supporting whatever yet-to-be-decided form that May and her Leave underlings lash up.
Ruth is nothing if not adaptable.
You mean lacking any principles and will use anything possible for self aggrandisement
Who could she have learned that from?
It is the infamous chuckle siblings tag team on now,
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
In some ways it is a good thing, the more it falls now and it already fell a lot post the Brexit vote, the less it has to fall once the eventual terms are concluded and it could even rise if the deal is better than expected. May is being realistic that full single market membership is unlikely given border control in some form is non negotiable
I agree. Over the last couple of years all Western economies have tried to devalue their currencies to improve export competitiveness. Most have failed. The reduction in sterling after the Brexit vote is to be welcomed and indeed if the final deal is better than the markets expect then there could be a (unwelcome) revaluation.
Look how Germany has done on entering the Euro with a devalued currency.
Edited to add bit about Germany
Certainly the devaluation is not all bad and of course May has said she is still aiming for a trade deal
Loved the comment about the tube strike by the Union rep on BBC this morning. He said that there was no need to raise fares to pay for staff, just get TfL to pay. A never ending spiral. A few years ago I was trying to get from Eurostar to the station for Lyon. Couldn't make head nor tail of the ticketing- no staff anywhere to be seen.
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's still all like a dream at present, and I suspect many believe the King's messenger on a white charger will burst in on the final act and everything will be dandy. Theresa will have the most to lose if things don't turn out as the romantics hope - there has been much emotional investment in the legend of her competence and steely resolve.
LOL, usual Tory using the witterings of a fool as "supposed" truth. If a Tory's lip are moving she is lying.
Your usual level of engagement with an argument you've repeatedly lost.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
The argument has never been lost , your claim that the rUK would welch on paying pensions it is obligated to do, that people have paid contributions for , is preposterous
It's not.
It's the law.
Recent ECHR case:
The Court did not consider that it sufficed for the applicants to have paid National Insurance contributions in the United Kingdom to place them in a relevantly similar position to all other pensioners, regardless of their country of residence. Claiming the contrary would be based on a misconception of the relationship between National Insurance contributions and the State pension. Unlike private pension schemes, National Insurance contributions had no exclusive link to retirement pensions. Instead, they formed a part of the revenue which paid for a whole range of social security benefits, including incapacity benefits, maternity allowances, widow’s benefits, bereavement benefits and the National Health Service. The complex and interlocking system of the benefits and taxation systems made it impossible to isolate the payment of National Insurance contributions as a sufficient ground for equating the position of pensioners who received up- rating and those, like the applicants, who did not. "
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
True but it is a message which fits the times
Yes, faultless rhetoric. As was her first No.10 speech.
Action, though?
There will be little action while we have endless negotiations in Brussels dominating the next few years, it will be more a case of straying the ship
So the poor get turned over and forgotten and no richer while we Brexit.
Almost as if people pointed out before the vote that Brexit would not help those who are most in need of help.
It was the poor and less educated who voted most heavily for Brexit and for immigration controls, so May is actually listening to them and not just wealthy, highly educated Remainers
Those who do not work also voted overwhelmingly for Brexit. Maybe May is actually listening to them.
Well their vote counts the same as that of a multi millionaire so fair enough
I agree with this assesment, personally I've kept Fillon onside - but that might say more about me than anything. The one I'm laying is Le Pen
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen +208 Macron +118 Fillon -222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
You mean some people on PB just see the thread writer's name and talk nonsense.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
Macron is he big gainer from the system, Le Pen is the loser.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
I've been laying Le Pen for a while.
Now that would be quite a story.......
I'm happy to lay Le Pen but not Merkel.
Marion Marechal Le Pen? Definitely.
Yep.
Despite her good looks, I find her politics less attractive than Marine's. She seems to share some of her grandfather's views on the Jews, for example.
She's probably playing to the Lefebvrists. Her dad Roger Auque was Mossad.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
She needs a lot more than her core vote to become president.
In the unlikely event she wins it will be because of rural and industrial France i.e. much the same coalition Trump built
It is worth remembering that the late 2015 elections where the FN topped the First Round poll did not have either Paris or Lyon voting. (Nor a number of the overseas Departements.)
The FN toppled the poll in the last European elections too when Paris and Lyon and overseas departments certainly did vote
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
She needs a lot more than her core vote to become president.
In the unlikely event she wins it will be because of rural and industrial France i.e. much the same coalition Trump built
It is worth remembering that the late 2015 elections where the FN topped the First Round poll did not have either Paris or Lyon voting. (Nor a number of the overseas Departements.)
The FN toppled the poll in the last European elections too when Paris and Lyon and overseas departments certainly did vote
Yes but she only got 24.9% of the vote (albeit a percent above her polling). I think she'd need to be in the high 30s (at least) to make it on the transfers.
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
Higher inflation will erode the national debt
Assuming nominal income growth holds up, yes. But it's still painful for those on fixed incomes, especially given the current low interest rate environment.
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
So we now have the extraordinary situation of Conservative supporters wanting higher inflation. We've come a long way.
Interest rates will have to rise at some point and I would argue very soon - the fundamentals of the economy remain good for now and a rise to 0.5% looks quite supportable.
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
When did you last go to France ? It is the pound which is plummeting.
The arrogance of the English is always a mystery. I remember in 1990 when Maggie finally lost her marbles and started swinging wildly at the EU. I had just finished a job which involved a day in the Irn Bru plant and another at Ravenscraig and going straight from there to the BMW factory in Munich.
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
Tbf the Tories closed down Ravenscraig 2 years later, though I doubt it was because it looked too scabby.
This is all too true. Maybe a higher percent of those in Brexitland haven't travelled widely in the EU ... except southern holiday destinations. Are they aware for instance that Wales is now the 5th. poorest EU state ... that is, if it were an independent country. I don't know the exact order but I assume countries like Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia are below it.
Currently, Wales is bailed out by Whitehall. Doubtless the wealth is created mainly in Remainia.
Heseltine criticised Osborne/Cameron for not doing enough and presiding over a divided country. Osborne does have a northern constituency. May is an MP for I think one of the four richest counties. Has she even visited Wales, the West Midlands or beyond the Midlands?
It's symbolic and it matters a lot if the one-nation talk is to mean anything. Heseltine knew how to do it.
So we now have the extraordinary situation of Conservative supporters wanting higher inflation. We've come a long way.
Interest rates will have to rise at some point and I would argue very soon - the fundamentals of the economy remain good for now and a rise to 0.5% looks quite supportable.
So we now have the extraordinary situation of Conservative supporters wanting higher inflation. We've come a long way.
Interest rates will have to rise at some point and I would argue very soon - the fundamentals of the economy remain good for now and a rise to 0.5% looks quite supportable.
As I understand it, the inflation target is about 2%. We haven't hit that for years and the BoE has to send a letter to the government if it significantly over or undershoots target. What's wrong with wanting to hit targets?
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
"While it was the UK that was leaving, Mr Hogan said, the key point was that it was the EU 27 who would decide the exit conditions"
If that is indeed the thinking in the EU, then the prospect of an amicable split is remote indeed. What Hogan is describing is not exit negotiations, but diktat.
What would be the motivation for the EU to do anything other than thoroughly beast the UK? The survival of The Project is far more important than selling a few VW Tiguans. They've got to make Brexit an ordeal of fire, blood and pus to dissaude anyone else from forming any more closed form compound lexemes based on the names of their countries and verbs of motion.
Maybe maybe not. Look at it as though the EU were an employer. If an employee leaves sure there is stuff they can do to make things difficult.
But the other side of that coin is they don't want to be so vexatious such that no one wants to join the company in the first place.
The EU as an employer analogy doesn't really work as there isn't really a vast choice of other political unions (employers) apart from the baleful and widening gyre of Russia. So its the EU (autocratic and autistic CEO) or Russia (CEO tries to put his finger in your hole whenever he gets you alone in the bogs.)
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
When did you last go to France ? It is the pound which is plummeting.
The arrogance of the English is always a mystery. I remember in 1990 when Maggie finally lost her marbles and started swinging wildly at the EU. I had just finished a job which involved a day in the Irn Bru plant and another at Ravenscraig and going straight from there to the BMW factory in Munich.
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
Tbf the Tories closed down Ravenscraig 2 years later, though I doubt it was because it looked too scabby.
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
It's astonishing that so many people see devaluation as a wonderful thing. We are now seeing the consequences of the post-June 23rd devaluation in terms of rising fuel prices which will inevitably feed through to inflation in the wider economy along with the increased cost of imported goods.
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
Higher inflation will erode the national debt
About 25% of gilts are index linked.
The UK 0.15% 2068 index linked gilts yield negative 1.5% real for more than 50 years. In a best case scenario, you lose two thirds of your purchasing power over the next half century.
"While it was the UK that was leaving, Mr Hogan said, the key point was that it was the EU 27 who would decide the exit conditions"
If that is indeed the thinking in the EU, then the prospect of an amicable split is remote indeed. What Hogan is describing is not exit negotiations, but diktat.
The survival of The Project is far more important than selling a few VW Tiguans. They've got to
You need quite a few Tiguan's to get to $100Bn+ that Germany exports to the Uk. 3rd largest market for the Krauts.
"While it was the UK that was leaving, Mr Hogan said, the key point was that it was the EU 27 who would decide the exit conditions"
If that is indeed the thinking in the EU, then the prospect of an amicable split is remote indeed. What Hogan is describing is not exit negotiations, but diktat.
The survival of The Project is far more important than selling a few VW Tiguans. They've got to
You need quite a few Tiguan's to get to $100Bn+ that Germany exports to the Uk. 3rd largest market for the Krauts.
Lift the sanctions on Russia in concert with the direction of the new US administration and voila.
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
It's certainly interesting to count the number of hats Davidson has worn in regard to Brexit. Before the Indy referendum she said voting No means we remain a member of the EU, before the 2015 GE she said yes, the Tories would have a referendum on EU membership, but only in the unlikely event of a Tory majority, before the EU referendum that Remain was very much in the best interests of Scotland, immediately afterwards that remaining in the single market was an absolute priority, and now she's a born again Brexiteer supporting whatever yet-to-be-decided form that May and her Leave underlings lash up.
Ruth is nothing if not adaptable.
You mean lacking any principles and will use anything possible for self aggrandisement
Who could she have learned that from?
It is the infamous chuckle siblings tag team on now,
Eck & Nicola?
Carlotta and Scottlotta of course as you well know
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
When did you last go to France ? It is the pound which is plummeting.
The arrogance of the English is always a mystery. I remember in 1990 when Maggie finally lost her marbles and started swinging wildly at the EU. I had just finished a job which involved a day in the Irn Bru plant and another at Ravenscraig and going straight from there to the BMW factory in Munich.
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
Tbf the Tories closed down Ravenscraig 2 years later, though I doubt it was because it looked too scabby.
This is all too true. Maybe a higher percent of those in Brexitland haven't travelled widely in the EU ... except southern holiday destinations. Are they aware for instance that Wales is now the 5th. poorest EU state ... that is, if it were an independent country. I don't know the exact order but I assume countries like Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia are below it.
Currently, Wales is bailed out by Whitehall. Doubtless the wealth is created mainly in Remainia.
Heseltine criticised Osborne/Cameron for not doing enough and presiding over a divided country. Osborne does have a northern constituency. May is an MP for I think one of the four richest counties. Has she even visited Wales, the West Midlands or beyond the Midlands?
It's symbolic and it matters a lot if the one-nation talk is to mean anything. Heseltine knew how to do it.
Given Wales backs hard Brexit according to Opinium May is listening to what it wants
Well this is going to confuse the Daily Mail, is she the enemy of good manners?
A crown court judge who retaliated with blunt, verbal abuse when insulted by a defendant has been cleared of judicial misconduct.
The widely reported exchange, which triggered complaints from the public, occurred last summer when Patricia Lynch QC informed the repeat offender John Hennigan that he would be sent to prison for breaching an antisocial behaviour order (asbo).
The defendant, who was appearing at Chelmsford crown court, interrupted her, saying: “It’s obvious, isn’t it? Because you’re a c*nt and I’m not.” The judge then responded: “Well, you’re a bit of a c*nt yourself. Being offensive to me doesn’t make things better at all.”
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
She needs a lot more than her core vote to become president.
In the unlikely event she wins it will be because of rural and industrial France i.e. much the same coalition Trump built
It is worth remembering that the late 2015 elections where the FN topped the First Round poll did not have either Paris or Lyon voting. (Nor a number of the overseas Departements.)
The FN toppled the poll in the last European elections too when Paris and Lyon and overseas departments certainly did vote
Yes but she only got 24.9% of the vote (albeit a percent above her polling). I think she'd need to be in the high 30s (at least) to make it on the transfers.
I am not saying it is likely she wins but if she wins it will be because of provincial France, just as the provincial UK voted for Brexit and non coastal U.S. voted for Trump. Paris will vote heavily for Macron or Fillon, just as London voted strongly for Remain and New York for Hillary
LOL, usual Tory using the witterings of a fool as "supposed" truth. If a Tory's lip are moving she is lying.
Your usual level of engagement with an argument you've repeatedly lost.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
The argument has never been lost , your claim that the rUK would welch on paying pensions it is obligated to do, that people have paid contributions for , is preposterous
It's not.
It's the law.
Recent ECHR case:
The Court did not consider that it sufficed for the applicants to have paid National Insurance contributions in the United Kingdom to place them in a relevantly similar position to all other pensioners, regardless of their country of residence. Claiming the contrary would be based on a misconception of the relationship between National Insurance contributions and the State pension. Unlike private pension schemes, National Insurance contributions had no exclusive link to retirement pensions. Instead, they formed a part of the revenue which paid for a whole range of social security benefits, including incapacity benefits, maternity allowances, widow’s benefits, bereavement benefits and the National Health Service. The complex and interlocking system of the benefits and taxation systems made it impossible to isolate the payment of National Insurance contributions as a sufficient ground for equating the position of pensioners who received up- rating and those, like the applicants, who did not. "
Both sets receiving pensions, so what is your point , that was an argument based on the amounts based on the Tories new Dick Turpin highway robbery updates, both still received their pensions as entitled, even if the Tories pocketed a share for themselves.
Loved the comment about the tube strike by the Union rep on BBC this morning. He said that there was no need to raise fares to pay for staff, just get TfL to pay. A never ending spiral. A few years ago I was trying to get from Eurostar to the station for Lyon. Couldn't make head nor tail of the ticketing- no staff anywhere to be seen.
Time to have driverless trains and get shot of these neanderthals who want paid for doing nothing.
So we now have the extraordinary situation of Conservative supporters wanting higher inflation. We've come a long way.
Interest rates will have to rise at some point and I would argue very soon - the fundamentals of the economy remain good for now and a rise to 0.5% looks quite supportable.
As I understand it, the inflation target is about 2%. We haven't hit that for years and the BoE has to send a letter to the government if it significantly over or undershoots target. What's wrong with wanting to hit targets?
I suspect the risk of a significant overshoot is now more likely than the risk of hitting the target but we'll see.
LOL, usual Tory using the witterings of a fool as "supposed" truth. If a Tory's lip are moving she is lying.
Your usual level of engagement with an argument you've repeatedly lost.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
The argument has never been lost , your claim that the rUK would welch on paying pensions it is obligated to do, that people have paid contributions for , is preposterous
It's not.
It's the law.
Recent ECHR case:
ensioners who received up- rating and those, like the applicants, who did not. "
Both sets receiving pensions, so what is your point , that was an argument based on the amounts based on the Tories new Dick Turpin highway robbery updates, both still received their pensions as entitled, even if the Tories pocketed a share for themselves.
The point is that no one 'pays into a pot' for their retirement pension in the form of NI contributions (unlike a private pension). NI contributions go straight into general revenue and pay current pensions.
Future pensions are funded from future revenues.
As iScotland would be responsible for raising its own revenues, it would also be responsible for paying its own pensioners.
The belief that rUK would continue to pay IScotland pensioners' pensions is for the birds.
There is no 'pension pot' to be divvied up.
Scottish NI contributions have already been spent on Scottish pensions, Scottish social security, Scottish incapacity benefits, Scottish maternity allowances, Scottish widow’s benefits, Scottish bereavement benefits and the Scottish National Health Service.
LOL, usual Tory using the witterings of a fool as "supposed" truth. If a Tory's lip are moving she is lying.
Your usual level of engagement with an argument you've repeatedly lost.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
The argument has never been lost , your claim that the rUK would welch on paying pensions it is obligated to do, that people have paid contributions for , is preposterous
It's not.
It's the law.
Recent ECHR case:
ensioners who received up- rating and those, like the applicants, who did not. "
Both sets receiving pensions, so what is your point , that was an argument based on the amounts based on the Tories new Dick Turpin highway robbery updates, both still received their pensions as entitled, even if the Tories pocketed a share for themselves.
The point is that no one 'pays into a pot' for their retirement pension in the form of NI contributions (unlike a private pension). NI contributions go straight into general revenue and pay current pensions.
Future pensions are funded from future revenues.
As iScotland would be responsible for raising its own revenues, it would also be responsible for paying its own pensioners.
The belief that rUK would continue to pay IScotland pensioners' pensions is for the birds.
There is no 'pension pot' to be divvied up.
Scottish NI contributions have already been spent on Scottish pensions, Scottish social security, Scottish incapacity benefits, Scottish maternity allowances, Scottish widow’s benefits, Scottish bereavement benefits and the Scottish National Health Service.
It would be paid out of the cash from UK assets , money in bank of England, mortgaging the Houses of parliament , our share of all the UK embassies , London infrastructure etc, etc.
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
Dream on sunshine. When people are made poorer by this mess, they will know who to punish. I can't wait. I don't care who benefits as long as people like IDS, Redwood and Cash are found out.
In a second round with Marine Le Pen v. Fillon then the centrists and leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home. That is self-evident.
I am not convinced that the converse will happen in Le Pen v. anyone on the left. Some conservatives will see Le Pen as closer to their ideal than a hard left or even centre left candidate.
Also they have all had five years of Gordon Brown. Whilst Hollande has made a better fist of the Presidency than his predecessor that is not the way the typical passenger on Le Tramway in Besancon sees it.
So if Fillon is in the second round he will win. Certainly the left need a candidate who reaches out and M Macron might be that candidate. But, he will have a much tougher second round that Fillon would have had. Le Pen needs Fillon to fail to make the second round - then it will be very close.
I don't think it is self evident that leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home.
1) Le Pen is the change agent leading "the People against the Elite". Fillon, as ex Prime Minister, is one of the elite. 2) Her economic policies appeals to the left wing more than Fillon's Thatcherite approach. 3) Her immigration policies and protectionist industrial policies may have more appeal to the left than Fillon's. 4) The annual Front march in Paris is in May Day. 5) She may get a little help from Putin.
I think it is a big mistake to simply think that Le Pen is even more right wing than Fillon so the left have no choice but to vote for Fillon or stay at home. There is a danger of group think on this.
Having said that, the polls for the second round show her a long way behind Fillon. But they also showed Fillon a long way behind Juppe and will shortly be discontinued until the real polls so we will be working in the dark.
I can understand why she is at 4.4 on Betfair (23% probability). It is quite possible we will have President Le Pen on 8th May. Then the UK can join with France in an Entente Cordiale as we jointly negotiate Article 50 with the remaining EU26. That'll be fun.
The election of someone who has positioned themselves near the centre is unlikely, given that many are annoyed to say the least. Mélenchon, backed by the PC, is outscoring all the PS contenders in the polls, including Valls.
A big unknown is whether any TV debates will be held before the first round. Given the sheer weight of support in the polls (in excess of 40%) for "radical" candidates, they may be able to force one (or more) somehow.
Any PBers going to work in London today, or all working from home? Pictures from Clapham Jcn don't look too good at all.
Yes, but then I don't have to use the tube. Waterloo Bridge was a bit busier than normal, and there was a lot of traffic coming up from Fleet Street and heading down the Strand.
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
Dream on sunshine. When people are made poorer by this mess, they will know who to punish. I can't wait. I don't care who benefits as long as people like IDS, Redwood and Cash are found out.
You will be disappointed, the reason Brexit won was because enough people voted Leave even despite the fact the economy might slowdown a little to get border control and reclaim sovereignty. The LDs are not going to win the next election and nor is Corbyn
Mr. G, if Scotland has a share of London infrastructure, that would appear to imply England would have a majority share of Scottish infrastructure...
LOL, you have obviously not been north of the border MD, London has more spent on one building than the Tories spend in Scotland in a year. Believe me the money would be flowing one way only.
LOL, usual Tory using the witterings of a fool as "supposed" truth. If a Tory's lip are moving she is lying.
Your usual level of engagement with an argument you've repeatedly lost.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
The argument has never been lost , your claim that the rUK would welch on paying pensions it is obligated to do, that people have paid contributions for , is preposterous
It's not.
It's the law.
Recent ECHR case:
ensioners who received up- rating and those, like the applicants, who did not. "
Both sets receiving pensions, so what is your point , that was an argument based on the amounts based on the Tories new Dick Turpin highway robbery updates, both still received their pensions as entitled, even if the Tories pocketed a share for themselves.
The point is that no one 'pays into a pot' for their retirement pension in the form of NI contributions (unlike a private pension). NI contributions go straight into general revenue and pay current pensions.
Future pensions are funded from future revenues.
As iScotland would be responsible for raising its own revenues, it would also be responsible for paying its own pensioners.
The belief that rUK would continue to pay IScotland pensioners' pensions is for the birds.
There is no 'pension pot' to be divvied up.
Scottish NI contributions have already been spent on Scottish pensions, Scottish social security, Scottish incapacity benefits, Scottish maternity allowances, Scottish widow’s benefits, Scottish bereavement benefits and the Scottish National Health Service.
It would be paid out of the cash from UK assets , money in bank of England, mortgaging the Houses of parliament , our share of all the UK embassies , London infrastructure etc, etc.
So if Scotland owns 8% of rUK assets, rUK owns 92% of Scotlands?
Anyway, the UK is in debt.
And pension payment is an ongoing revenue question which is why the Scottish government recognises it would pay them
Mr. G, only once, to Loch Lomond. Very picturesque it was. Most family holidays were in either Devon or Wales, though. Very gracious of Edward I and Edward III to give the Welsh so many fine tourist attractions.
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
Dream on sunshine. When people are made poorer by this mess, they will know who to punish. I can't wait. I don't care who benefits as long as people like IDS, Redwood and Cash are found out.
Any PBers going to work in London today, or all working from home? Pictures from Clapham Jcn don't look too good at all.
Saw the footage from Liverpool Street station, that doesn't look good either.
The situation is fluid and the TfL website not a lot of help with some contrary information on whether stations were open or closed (West Ham and Barking were shown as closed but are now apparently open).
The actual service is patchy - the Jubilee was out completely this morning but is now running - but there are a lot more stations open (especially outside Zone 1) than closed but it's the loss of the key interchange stations in central London that is doing the damage.
The conundrum is the change in shift later on and what impact that will have on stations closing or opening and the overall service.
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
Dream on sunshine. When people are made poorer by this mess, they will know who to punish. I can't wait. I don't care who benefits as long as people like IDS, Redwood and Cash are found out.
What if people aren't made poorer?
You may be waiting a long time.
Wasn't the 'Project Fear' worst case scenario that the economy would be 4% smaller than it would otherwise have been by 2030?
Well this is going to confuse the Daily Mail, is she the enemy of good manners?
A crown court judge who retaliated with blunt, verbal abuse when insulted by a defendant has been cleared of judicial misconduct.
The widely reported exchange, which triggered complaints from the public, occurred last summer when Patricia Lynch QC informed the repeat offender John Hennigan that he would be sent to prison for breaching an antisocial behaviour order (asbo).
The defendant, who was appearing at Chelmsford crown court, interrupted her, saying: “It’s obvious, isn’t it? Because you’re a c*nt and I’m not.” The judge then responded: “Well, you’re a bit of a c*nt yourself. Being offensive to me doesn’t make things better at all.”
I am finding his use of twitter fascinating. We have never seen anything quite like it. He has created a new and very powerful bully pulpit for the Presidency before he even takes office. It's not all good of course but it is very interesting.
Any PBers going to work in London today, or all working from home? Pictures from Clapham Jcn don't look too good at all.
Working from home, unionised staff on strike at Epping tube and all central London tubes shut
Sounds like chaos. Got caught in a tube strike a few years ago and it wasn't a pleasant experience, had to walk about 10 miles from Waterloo to Wimbledon (wearing a suit!) to get a train south.
Annoyed at YouTube, they've taken down the video for Amateur Transplants' "London Underground Song" There is another version still up though - but only listen to it if you're not at work, it is rather rude about the strikers.
I am finding his use of twitter fascinating. We have never seen anything quite like it. He has created a new and very powerful bully pulpit for the Presidency before he even takes office. It's not all good of course but it is very interesting.
It is all fascinating, I suspect we'll see more of this
Bernie Sanders Brings Giant Printout of a Donald Trump Tweet to Senate Floor
Time magazine: "Trump’s victory has made a Le Pen presidency a realistic, perhaps even likely, proposition."
Utterly ludicrous article, summed up by the quote
"An Elarbe opinion poll published on Thursday found that Le Pen was neck-and-neck among voters with former Prime Minister the conservative Republican, François Fillon"
It found that she was neck-and-neck in the first round, with not particularly impressive 22/23% shares. All the polling points to Le Pen needing a substantial lead over any realistic second round rival, if she is to overcome them in the head-to-head. To imply from that (indeed, to state it explicitly elsewhere in the piece) that "a Le Pen presidency [is] a realistic, perhaps even likely, proposition" is complete nonsense.
Le Pen has a chance but it is a slim one. I personally would put it in single figures. She's going backwards in the polls at the wrong time, and even when she was polling 30%+, she was still losing the head-to-heads against all but the most unpopular alternatives (who by definition, were unlikely to reach the second round). Black Swan events or some strange first round result might propel her back into having a genuine shot but as things stand, she won't come close (though she'll come far closer than any previous far-right candidate).
Any PBers going to work in London today, or all working from home? Pictures from Clapham Jcn don't look too good at all.
Working from home, unionised staff on strike at Epping tube and all central London tubes shut
Sounds like chaos. Got caught in a tube strike a few years ago and it wasn't a pleasant experience, had to walk about 10 miles from Waterloo to Wimbledon (wearing a suit!) to get a train south.
Annoyed at YouTube, they've taken down the video for Amateur Transplants' "London Underground Song" There is another version still up though - but only listen to it if you're not at work, it is rather rude about the strikers.
Yes not really worth bothering attempting to get in today, I have a colleague who lives in Sussex and he will be hit by the Southern strike from tomorrow. Will try and catch the YouTube video later
Well this is going to confuse the Daily Mail, is she the enemy of good manners?
A crown court judge who retaliated with blunt, verbal abuse when insulted by a defendant has been cleared of judicial misconduct.
The widely reported exchange, which triggered complaints from the public, occurred last summer when Patricia Lynch QC informed the repeat offender John Hennigan that he would be sent to prison for breaching an antisocial behaviour order (asbo).
The defendant, who was appearing at Chelmsford crown court, interrupted her, saying: “It’s obvious, isn’t it? Because you’re a c*nt and I’m not.” The judge then responded: “Well, you’re a bit of a c*nt yourself. Being offensive to me doesn’t make things better at all.”
At a loss to know why that was not unjudicial and misconduct. It lowers the dignity of the court and herself to descend to the offender's level.
When I was at the College of Law 30 odd years ago we put on a revue and one of the sketches was a mock professional conduct lecture in which students were solemnly advised "Don't call the judge a c*** - it's an easy mistake to make". Satire really is dead.
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Trump may be wrong but Meryl Streep won an Oscar for playing Margaret Thatcher and did not thank her once in her acceptance speech. Unlike Claire Foy who thanked the Quuen after winning a Golden Globe last night for playing her in the Crown
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
Dream on sunshine. When people are made poorer by this mess, they will know who to punish. I can't wait. I don't care who benefits as long as people like IDS, Redwood and Cash are found out.
What if people aren't made poorer?
You may be waiting a long time.
Wasn't the 'Project Fear' worst case scenario that the economy would be 4% smaller than it would otherwise have been by 2030?
This is all too true. Maybe a higher percent of those in Brexitland haven't travelled widely in the EU ... except southern holiday destinations. Are they aware for instance that Wales is now the 5th. poorest EU state ... that is, if it were an independent country. I don't know the exact order but I assume countries like Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia are below it.
Currently, Wales is bailed out by Whitehall. Doubtless the wealth is created mainly in Remainia.
Heseltine criticised Osborne/Cameron for not doing enough and presiding over a divided country. Osborne does have a northern constituency. May is an MP for I think one of the four richest counties. Has she even visited Wales, the West Midlands or beyond the Midlands?
It's symbolic and it matters a lot if the one-nation talk is to mean anything. Heseltine knew how to do it.
Has May ever visited Wales?
"When two of the world's most powerful women met for the first time in Berlin on Wednesday, Mrs May gave her German counterpart a guide to the national park.The PM chose Great Mountain Days in Snowdonia. The pair are said to be keen walkers." (BBC website)
I saw Ms May & husband (& minders) on Cadair Idris about a year ago.
Well, from my position tonight in the Hunter Valley a drop of 3c in GBP:AUD today and 5c in the past week hardly looks a ringing endorsement of May and her (lack of) strategy.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
Unlikely given the voters themselves voted for Brexit and the hapless Labour leader
Dream on sunshine. When people are made poorer by this mess, they will know who to punish. I can't wait. I don't care who benefits as long as people like IDS, Redwood and Cash are found out.
That is exactly the mentality that got us where we are today: I don't care what the consequences of Leave are provided the smile gets wiped off Osborne's face". Learn from the mistakes of history, or repeat them.
Mr. Rog, or, indeed, "Siege has ended. Can finally get some maths done in peace."
Five minutes later, "Some bugger's at the door. Going to give him a piece of my mind!"
Marcellus (consul in charge of besieging Syracuse) had given orders the genius was not to be harmed. Still got stabbed to death by an annoyed soldier, though). Marcellus himself was killed by Hannibal during the Second Punic War.
I do struggle to imagine what a Trump inaugural will look like. He does so few fully-scripted speeches that we have surprisingly little to go on. That said 'The Apprentice' at 33/1 seems like value; he does like talking about himself. Brexit at 5/1 might also be worth a shot, given that it's reasonable to use that term in the context of resetting America's European policy.
Comments
They may be right, none of us knows. The day it becomes fact that we are leaving the SM and reverting to WTO rules is the day to really start watching the economic indicators.
It's the law.
Recent ECHR case:
The Court did not consider that it sufficed for the applicants to have paid National Insurance contributions in the United Kingdom to place them in a relevantly similar position to all other pensioners, regardless of their country of residence. Claiming the contrary would be based on a misconception of the relationship between National Insurance contributions and the State pension. Unlike private pension schemes, National Insurance contributions had no exclusive link to retirement pensions. Instead, they formed a part of the revenue which paid for a whole range of social security benefits, including incapacity benefits, maternity allowances, widow’s benefits, bereavement benefits and the National Health Service. The complex and interlocking system of the benefits and taxation systems made it impossible to isolate the payment of National Insurance contributions as a sufficient ground for equating the position of pensioners who received up- rating and those, like the applicants, who did not. "
Once fixed term currency contracts set before 23/6 run out, we will likely see another hike in prices for imported goods. If the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers stabilise the poil price at $55-$60 per barrel, we will continue to have to live with higher fuel prices.
Interest rates will have to rise at some point and I would argue very soon - the fundamentals of the economy remain good for now and a rise to 0.5% looks quite supportable.
Currently, Wales is bailed out by Whitehall. Doubtless the wealth is created mainly in Remainia.
Heseltine criticised Osborne/Cameron for not doing enough and presiding over a divided country. Osborne does have a northern constituency. May is an MP for I think one of the four richest counties. Has she even visited Wales, the West Midlands or beyond the Midlands?
It's symbolic and it matters a lot if the one-nation talk is to mean anything. Heseltine knew how to do it.
This feels far more like the best way forward for the Tories than the best way forward for Britain, and God help us, I hope these clowns get punished for it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36816423
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/09/brexit-may-single-market-scotland-fears
A crown court judge who retaliated with blunt, verbal abuse when insulted by a defendant has been cleared of judicial misconduct.
The widely reported exchange, which triggered complaints from the public, occurred last summer when Patricia Lynch QC informed the repeat offender John Hennigan that he would be sent to prison for breaching an antisocial behaviour order (asbo).
The defendant, who was appearing at Chelmsford crown court, interrupted her, saying: “It’s obvious, isn’t it? Because you’re a c*nt and I’m not.” The judge then responded: “Well, you’re a bit of a c*nt yourself. Being offensive to me doesn’t make things better at all.”
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/jan/09/judge-who-swore-at-abusive-defendant-cleared-of-misconduct?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Future pensions are funded from future revenues.
As iScotland would be responsible for raising its own revenues, it would also be responsible for paying its own pensioners.
The belief that rUK would continue to pay IScotland pensioners' pensions is for the birds.
There is no 'pension pot' to be divvied up.
Scottish NI contributions have already been spent on Scottish pensions, Scottish social security, Scottish incapacity benefits, Scottish maternity allowances, Scottish widow’s benefits, Scottish bereavement benefits and the Scottish National Health Service.
You have a stronger constitution than I had suspected....
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/818416446527172608
(N.B. That was a joke, rather than an anecdote.)
A big unknown is whether any TV debates will be held before the first round. Given the sheer weight of support in the polls (in excess of 40%) for "radical" candidates, they may be able to force one (or more) somehow.
Thomas Docherty, the former MP for Dunfermline and West Fife, grew up in the constituency in Cumbria.
http://tinyurl.com/j8op9sm
Anyway, the UK is in debt.
And pension payment is an ongoing revenue question which is why the Scottish government recognises it would pay them
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/818206876143915009
You may be waiting a long time.
The actual service is patchy - the Jubilee was out completely this morning but is now running - but there are a lot more stations open (especially outside Zone 1) than closed but it's the loss of the key interchange stations in central London that is doing the damage.
The conundrum is the change in shift later on and what impact that will have on stations closing or opening and the overall service.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/818222579383201792
How will we ever know?
Annoyed at YouTube, they've taken down the video for Amateur Transplants' "London Underground Song" There is another version still up though - but only listen to it if you're not at work, it is rather rude about the strikers.
Bernie Sanders Brings Giant Printout of a Donald Trump Tweet to Senate Floor
https://www.buzzfeed.com/remysmidt/giant-tweet?utm_term=.bvwvRxmAeA#.qeealzXQmQ
"An Elarbe opinion poll published on Thursday found that Le Pen was neck-and-neck among voters with former Prime Minister the conservative Republican, François Fillon"
It found that she was neck-and-neck in the first round, with not particularly impressive 22/23% shares. All the polling points to Le Pen needing a substantial lead over any realistic second round rival, if she is to overcome them in the head-to-head. To imply from that (indeed, to state it explicitly elsewhere in the piece) that "a Le Pen presidency [is] a realistic, perhaps even likely, proposition" is complete nonsense.
Le Pen has a chance but it is a slim one. I personally would put it in single figures. She's going backwards in the polls at the wrong time, and even when she was polling 30%+, she was still losing the head-to-heads against all but the most unpopular alternatives (who by definition, were unlikely to reach the second round). Black Swan events or some strange first round result might propel her back into having a genuine shot but as things stand, she won't come close (though she'll come far closer than any previous far-right candidate).
It's the fault of journalists reporting what she said...
https://twitter.com/TechnicallyRon/status/818422161799081984
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Trump may be wrong but Meryl Streep won an Oscar for playing Margaret Thatcher and did not thank her once in her acceptance speech. Unlike Claire Foy who thanked the Quuen after winning a Golden Globe last night for playing her in the Crown
"When two of the world's most powerful women met for the first time in Berlin on Wednesday, Mrs May gave her German counterpart a guide to the national park.The PM chose Great Mountain Days in Snowdonia. The pair are said to be keen walkers." (BBC website)
I saw Ms May & husband (& minders) on Cadair Idris about a year ago.
Quintus Fabius Maximus (the Cunctator): "Playing an epic game of hide and seek, though Minucius Rufus keeps forgetting the bloody rules. Oaf."
Caesar: "I've won the war, hooray!" "Going to the Senate to see the lads." "My career has suddenly taken a turn for the worst."
EDIT #Rubicon of course.
Five minutes later, "Some bugger's at the door. Going to give him a piece of my mind!"
Marcellus (consul in charge of besieging Syracuse) had given orders the genius was not to be harmed. Still got stabbed to death by an annoyed soldier, though). Marcellus himself was killed by Hannibal during the Second Punic War.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/specials/trump-inauguration-specials/223139648/
I do struggle to imagine what a Trump inaugural will look like. He does so few fully-scripted speeches that we have surprisingly little to go on. That said 'The Apprentice' at 33/1 seems like value; he does like talking about himself. Brexit at 5/1 might also be worth a shot, given that it's reasonable to use that term in the context of resetting America's European policy.