I agree with this assesment, personally I've kept Fillon onside - but that might say more about me than anything. The one I'm laying is Le Pen
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen +208 Macron +118 Fillon -222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
You mean some people on PB just see the thread writer's name and talk nonsense.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
Macron is he big gainer from the system, Le Pen is the loser.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
I've been laying Le Pen for a while.
Now that would be quite a story.......
I'm happy to lay Le Pen but not Merkel.
I think that's very wise. I can think of lots of scenarios where Merkel fails, against very few where Le Pen prevails.
Of course, you could just have been making a crude joke.
Merkel is over 1.8 to be next Chancellor on Betfair, I'm not sure why. She's running, not quitting, and her ratings are solid with the CDU-CSU well ahead.
Her head might be demanded as part of a coalition but I sincerely doubt it.
On Le Pen, I'd lay the granddaughter in both senses of the word.
But thats the truth of it, economic migration out of Africa is actually hugely damaging for Africa as well.
They aren't escaping a war zone. As much as I can understand why they would seek a better life in Europe from a pretty rubbish one in Africa, these are not refugees.
Indeed - the "vision" was tube stations filled with income-generating retail space and staff walking around with IPads providing information and advice and assisting passengers who struggle with the bank of modern easy-to-use machines.
The reality is somewhat different at most stations - brick walls where ticket offices used to be and hardly a staff member to be seen outside of their cubbyholes or by the ticket barriers.
Yes, the staff are excellent and helpful but the Boris/TFL vision has turned out to be a lie at most stations and it's that which jars with me today. It's not a bad vision in theory but that's all it is and passengers are left with the worst of all worlds - poor stations with inadequate staff and unreliable machines.
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
Such arrogance! I suggest you visit the EU and speaking for France it's visibly thriving. A few years ago it was clearly having a bad time. That doesn't seem to be the case anymore and as I'm sure you know they've now overtaken the UK as fifth richest country in the world.
You should be worried whether the UK is salvagable in five years not the EU.
Horrifying. Africa has more or less stopped farming because of a combination of US aid (grain), EU price rigging killing agricultural exports and the gold rush the article describes. I think Tony Blair in a boss-eyed and maniacal moment told the party conference he was going to sort out Africa, and it would have been a good plan.
I agree with this assesment, personally I've kept Fillon onside - but that might say more about me than anything. The one I'm laying is Le Pen
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen +208 Macron +118 Fillon -222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
You mean some people on PB just see the thread writer's name and talk nonsense.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
Macron is he big gainer from the system, Le Pen is the loser.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
I've been laying Le Pen for a while.
Now that would be quite a story.......
I'm happy to lay Le Pen but not Merkel.
Marion Marechal Le Pen? Definitely.
Yep.
Despite her good looks, I find her politics less attractive than Marine's. She seems to share some of her grandfather's views on the Jews, for example.
Correlation is not causation. Dollar is generally up this morning.
By a strange coincidence the Euro, the Yen, the Rupee and everything else I tried are up against the GB Pound as well. But like you say correlation isn't causation: This happening on the same day that the British PM announced she was going to screw companies trading with Britain's main export market was doubtless one of those wild coincidences.
Correlation is not causation. Dollar is generally up this morning.
By a strange coincidence the Euro, the Yen, the Rupee and everything else I tried are up against the GB Pound as well. But like you say correlation isn't causation: This happening on the same day that the British PM announced she was going to screw companies trading with Britain's main export market was doubtless one of those wild coincidences.
Sandpit and the Brexiteers: see no evil, hear no evil. Theresa May should open her gob a bit less. Whenever she opens it, there is a problem.
I agree with this assesment, personally I've kept Fillon onside - but that might say more about me than anything. The one I'm laying is Le Pen
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen +208 Macron +118 Fillon -222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
You mean some people on PB just see the thread writer's name and talk nonsense.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
Macron is he big gainer from the system, Le Pen is the loser.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
I've been laying Le Pen for a while.
Now that would be quite a story.......
I'm happy to lay Le Pen but not Merkel.
Marion Marechal Le Pen? Definitely.
Yep.
Despite her good looks, I find her politics less attractive than Marine's. She seems to share some of her grandfather's views on the Jews, for example.
Correlation is not causation. Dollar is generally up this morning.
"Correlation is not causation" has become one of those trite phrases, like "The customer is always right", where people want to claim that an inconvenient correlation can never indicate a causation. Theresa May gives an interview and the pound drops against other currencies, including the euro. Brexit was declared and GDP figures stay robust. Does A indicate B? Maybe yes, maybe no. It's always about how you interpret the correlation.
I agree with this assesment, personally I've kept Fillon onside - but that might say more about me than anything. The one I'm laying is Le Pen
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen +208 Macron +118 Fillon -222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
You mean some people on PB just see the thread writer's name and talk nonsense.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
Macron is he big gainer from the system, Le Pen is the loser.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
I've been laying Le Pen for a while.
Now that would be quite a story.......
I'm happy to lay Le Pen but not Merkel.
Marion Marechal Le Pen? Definitely.
Yep.
Despite her good looks, I find her politics less attractive than Marine's. She seems to share some of her grandfather's views on the Jews, for example.
Well they do say that cancer skips a generation.
I think there is a generational mix up here. Jean-Marie Le Pen is her father, not gf, and no one could accuse him of being insufficiently racist or anti-semitic.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
I agree with this assesment, personally I've kept Fillon onside - but that might say more about me than anything. The one I'm laying is Le Pen
My book right now on this is
-498 Le Pen +208 Macron +118 Fillon -222 Other
Which has a value of -£26 - due mainly to a £75 bet on Juppe.
The key thing is that Macron does not have to win the first round, if he comes second then Mike's tip is in great shape
@Pauly criticism of the tip is a complete nonsense.
You mean some people on PB just see the thread writer's name and talk nonsense.
Absolutely astonished by that revelation.
Macron is he big gainer from the system, Le Pen is the loser.
She is 4.5 and I woudn't bet on her at those odds even if she were guaranteed a place in the second round.
I've been laying Le Pen for a while.
Now that would be quite a story.......
I'm happy to lay Le Pen but not Merkel.
Marion Marechal Le Pen? Definitely.
Yep.
Despite her good looks, I find her politics less attractive than Marine's. She seems to share some of her grandfather's views on the Jews, for example.
Well they do say that cancer skips a generation.
I think there is a generational mix up here. Jean-Marie Le Pen is her father, not gf, and no one could accuse him of being insufficiently racist or anti-semitic.
Correlation is not causation. Dollar is generally up this morning.
"Correlation is not causation" has become one of those trite phrases, like "The customer is always right", where people want to claim that an inconvenient correlation can never indicate a causation. Theresa May gives an interview and the pound drops against other currencies, including the euro. Brexit was declared and GDP figures stay robust. Does A indicate B? Maybe yes, maybe no. It's always about how you interpret the correlation.
There was also very strong economic data out of Germany this morning: non-EU exports were up almost 10% year-over-year (presumably on the back of the weak Euro), and industrial production was up 2.something percent (against sub 2% expected).
Europe Elects @EuropeElects Italy: Beppe #Grillo wants to leave #Farage's EFDD and join #ALDE. Members of M5S can vote online for NI, EFDD or ALDE till today 1100 CET.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
As whichever contributor it was on R4 said, articulating what everyone was shouting at the radio: does she mean equality of opportunity or equality of outcome?
The former challenging to say the least and fair enough but the latter pretty scary from the lips of a Tory PM.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Sitting here on the moderate centre-left, I am very happy when the argument moves towards the positive attributes of an interventionist state. May, though, does not convince. She has supported and voted for policies that have had an adverse affect on the most vulnerable in society in areas as diverse as housing, the NHS and incomes. I can't help feeling that the sharing society will end up being one in which the well off pay less tax, while public services and tax credits for the working poor continue to be cut.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
An exodus of healthy, fit young working age population isn't helping Senegal one bit.
Nor does it give any incentive to overthrow corrupt, oppressive regimes. It just condemns the young and the elderly and the women to suffer under them.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
She is basically saying that if we end up leaving a single market to which Scotland exports roughly 10% of its exports then we should leave the single market to which we sell 70% of our exports. Its a completely ridiculous position. Personally, I think she is looking for a way out which maintains some sort of credibility and will ultimately determine that the free trade agreement in goods the UK will achieve is an insufficient trigger for a second referendum which she knows she would lose.
As Brexit shows, there are more important things to voters than the economy. A referendum built around the notion of endless years of Tory rule in Westminster may well be winnable. Sure, Scotland could take an economic hit, but over the longer term things will balance out. And, anyway, didn't all the experts predict a disaster for the UK if it voted to leave the EU?
Correlation is not causation. Dollar is generally up this morning.
By a strange coincidence the Euro, the Yen, the Rupee and everything else I tried are up against the GB Pound as well. But like you say correlation isn't causation: This happening on the same day that the British PM announced she was going to screw companies trading with Britain's main export market was doubtless one of those wild coincidences.
Sandpit and the Brexiteers: see no evil, hear no evil. Theresa May should open her gob a bit less. Whenever she opens it, there is a problem.
The Cabinet might as well be made up of Redwood, Cash, Mogg, Bone, Hollobone et al plus the headbangers that do sit at the top table. Hammond seems sidelined/outnumbered. She's probably choosing to go with the flow, for fear of her position if she stands up more for the 48% who wanted anything from the status quo to a United States of Europe (Heseltine ?...)
Europe Elects @EuropeElects Italy: Beppe #Grillo wants to leave #Farage's EFDD and join #ALDE. Members of M5S can vote online for NI, EFDD or ALDE till today 1100 CET.
ALDE is the Liberal grouping in EU.
Google-translated extract from Beppe Grillo's blog:
Recent events in Europe, such as Brexit, lead us to consider the nature of EFDD group. With the extraordinary success of the Leave, Ukip achieved its political objective: leave the EU. Let's talk about concrete facts: Farage has already abandoned the leadership of his party and the British MEPs will leave the European Parliament in the next legislature. Until then, the British colleagues will be engaged to value the choices that will determine the political future of the UK.
We studied the shared vote percentages with Ukip and darkened minor delegations: the figure does not exceed 20%. Very little. Stay in EFDD tantamount to face the next two and a half years without a common political goal, along with a delegation that will have no interest to bring home concrete results. We find ourselves in a position to remain in Parliament with the prerogatives deriving from belonging to a political group, but without the ability to do their utmost to carry out the program of the Movement 5 Stars in Europe. We not also hide a certain discomfort with the improper use of the Foundations' capital (to which we have given up and will continue to give up) by some colleagues EFDD, in reference to the news published and from which we take the necessary distance.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
True but it is a message which fits the times
Yes, faultless rhetoric. As was her first No.10 speech.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Ironically the most recent poll on the subject by Opinium had Scotland and England backing soft Brexit but Wales hard Brexit so May could keep Scotland only to lose Wales! (Though most likely she does a fudge in-between)
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
Bit if it has to happen, let it do so on the Tory watch
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
She needs a lot more than her core vote to become president.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
She has determined that with FTPA + The Moggster, she cannot, if she indeed wants to, pursue a hard Brexit. Gaming the stages of what would happen if she defied the euroloons all the way to a GE and its outcome, with noticeable caution now being expressed about Jezza, would have driven her down this path.
At least she gets to stay PM. What does she care about what flavour of Brexit we get? Not going to touch her.
Plus in any case, our vote to Leave the EU was an explicit message that we didn't like the inequality of our society. Wasn't it. And there were we thinking the vote involved such wholly irrelevant issues as whether we would prefer an EEA-type deal, or Canada, or....
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
Most Scots still back the union even now and of course the vast majority of Scotland's exports go to England and Wales while only a minority of UK exports go to the EU and even then Leave only won with 52%
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
True but it is a message which fits the times
Yes, faultless rhetoric. As was her first No.10 speech.
Action, though?
There will be little action while we have endless negotiations in Brussels dominating the next few years, it will be more a case of straying the ship
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
True but it is a message which fits the times
Yes, faultless rhetoric. As was her first No.10 speech.
Action, though?
There will be little action while we have endless negotiations in Brussels dominating the next few years, it will be more a case of straying the ship
So the poor get turned over and forgotten and no richer while we Brexit.
Almost as if people pointed out before the vote that Brexit would not help those who are most in need of help.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
Bit if it has to happen, let it do so on the Tory watch
As I said it is the Welsh who most want hard Brexit and Wales is hardly a heartland of Toryism
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
When did you last go to France ? It is the pound which is plummeting.
The arrogance of the English is always a mystery. I remember in 1990 when Maggie finally lost her marbles and started swinging wildly at the EU. I had just finished a job which involved a day in the Irn Bru plant and another at Ravenscraig and going straight from there to the BMW factory in Munich.
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
In a second round with Marine Le Pen v. Fillon then the centrists and leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home. That is self-evident.
I am not convinced that the converse will happen in Le Pen v. anyone on the left. Some conservatives will see Le Pen as closer to their ideal than a hard left or even centre left candidate.
Also they have all had five years of Gordon Brown. Whilst Hollande has made a better fist of the Presidency than his predecessor that is not the way the typical passenger on Le Tramway in Besancon sees it.
So if Fillon is in the second round he will win. Certainly the left need a candidate who reaches out and M Macron might be that candidate. But, he will have a much tougher second round that Fillon would have had. Le Pen needs Fillon to fail to make the second round - then it will be very close.
I don't think it is self evident that leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home.
1) Le Pen is the change agent leading "the People against the Elite". Fillon, as ex Prime Minister, is one of the elite. 2) Her economic policies appeals to the left wing more than Fillon's Thatcherite approach. 3) Her immigration policies and protectionist industrial policies may have more appeal to the left than Fillon's. 4) The annual Front march in Paris is in May Day. 5) She may get a little help from Putin.
I think it is a big mistake to simply think that Le Pen is even more right wing than Fillon so the left have no choice but to vote for Fillon or stay at home. There is a danger of group think on this.
Having said that, the polls for the second round show her a long way behind Fillon. But they also showed Fillon a long way behind Juppe and will shortly be discontinued until the real polls so we will be working in the dark.
I can understand why she is at 4.4 on Betfair (23% probability). It is quite possible we will have President Le Pen on 8th May. Then the UK can join with France in an Entente Cordiale as we jointly negotiate Article 50 with the remaining EU26. That'll be fun.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
It's certainly interesting to count the number of hats Davidson has worn in regard to Brexit. Before the Indy referendum she said voting No means we remain a member of the EU, before the 2015 GE she said yes, the Tories would have a referendum on EU membership, but only in the unlikely event of a Tory majority, before the EU referendum that Remain was very much in the best interests of Scotland, immediately afterwards that remaining in the single market was an absolute priority, and now she's a born again Brexiteer supporting whatever yet-to-be-decided form that May and her Leave underlings lash up.
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
She needs a lot more than her core vote to become president.
In the unlikely event she wins it will be because of rural and industrial France i.e. much the same coalition Trump built
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
In some ways it is a good thing, the more it falls now and it already fell a lot post the Brexit vote, the less it has to fall once the eventual terms are concluded and it could even rise if the deal is better than expected. May is being realistic that full single market membership is unlikely given border control in some form is non negotiable
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
True but it is a message which fits the times
Yes, faultless rhetoric. As was her first No.10 speech.
Action, though?
There will be little action while we have endless negotiations in Brussels dominating the next few years, it will be more a case of straying the ship
So the poor get turned over and forgotten and no richer while we Brexit.
Almost as if people pointed out before the vote that Brexit would not help those who are most in need of help.
It was the poor and less educated who voted most heavily for Brexit and for immigration controls, so May is actually listening to them and not just wealthy, highly educated Remainers
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
This is still dwarfed by the denial of the Brexiteers. The British state does not have the strategic capacity or political stability to execute what they want to achieve. Theresa May is doing her best to help the keenest among them to get a glimpse over the cliff edge, but they still seem all too keen to jump.
Pound falling can't be anything to do with Brexit as Scott P etc keep telling us that "priced in" doesn't apply because we haven't left yet.
Care to write that in English?
What I (and others) have repeatedly said is that you can't claim events have happened as a result of something else that hasn't happened yet.
You can correctly claim that the fall in Sterling today is as a result of things that Tezza said, you know, yesterday...
Why do Brexiteers struggle so with linear time?
This is the problem, that everything you say is something you have repeatedly said. And you are (uninterestingly) wrong; of course known future events can have present consequences. Does Mrs _P not buy a turkey in the run up to Christmas?
But I am glad to see you have not lost your nerve after yesterday's spectacular Titanic belly flop. Straight back on the horse.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
Most Scots still back the union even now and of course the vast majority of Scotland's exports go to England and Wales while only a minority of UK exports go to the EU and even then Leave only won with 52%
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
When did you last go to France ? It is the pound which is plummeting.
The arrogance of the English is always a mystery. I remember in 1990 when Maggie finally lost her marbles and started swinging wildly at the EU. I had just finished a job which involved a day in the Irn Bru plant and another at Ravenscraig and going straight from there to the BMW factory in Munich.
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
A preposterous comparison. A high tech cathedral isn't needed to produce a soft drink.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
It's certainly interesting to count the number of hats Davidson has worn in regard to Brexit. Before the Indy referendum she said voting No means we remain a member of the EU, before the 2015 GE she said yes, the Tories would have a referendum on EU membership, but only in the unlikely event of a Tory majority, before the EU referendum that Remain was very much in the best interests of Scotland, immediately afterwards that remaining in the single market was an absolute priority, and now she's a born again Brexiteer supporting whatever yet-to-be-decided form that May and her Leave underlings lash up.
Ruth is nothing if not adaptable.
You mean lacking any principles and will use anything possible for self aggrandisement
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
I suspect that it was that she was clearer that her priorities are to leave, to regain control of our legislative and judicial systems, to regain control over our borders and to get as good a trade deal as we can get in roughly that order. I don't believe the markets have reservations about whether we will leave or not but those holding out for a very soft Brexit/EEA will have been disappointed by her comments and her priorities.
But a 1% movement in a floating currency is not worth getting that excited about.
And I see that that Nicola Sturgeon has very nicely teed up SindyRef2 by apparently graciously conceding that one would not be required if Britain left the EU with a soft Brexit that wasn't going to happen.
Which all the polls show she would lose which May knows too
Presumably then Tessy will be saying 'bring it on' (or some gnomic equivalent) any second now?
Yep - Theresa May is cosying up to the Tory right and embracing hard Brexit, while Labour is utterly irrelevant for as long as the English membership prioritises purity over power. It's easy to paint a picture of endless years of right-wing Conservative rule from Westminster because that is the most likely scenario. It's worth remembering that in 2014 a case could be made for a Labour victory in 2015; in fact, I seem to remember Ruth Davidson explicitly making it. And we all know May is likely to refuse a second referendum - at least until the SNP gets another mandate for one from Scottish voters. That, too, will play into Sturgeon's hands.
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
It's certainly interesting to count the number of hats Davidson has worn in regard to Brexit. Before the Indy referendum she said voting No means we remain a member of the EU, before the 2015 GE she said yes, the Tories would have a referendum on EU membership, but only in the unlikely event of a Tory majority, before the EU referendum that Remain was very much in the best interests of Scotland, immediately afterwards that remaining in the single market was an absolute priority, and now she's a born again Brexiteer supporting whatever yet-to-be-decided form that May and her Leave underlings lash up.
Ruth is nothing if not adaptable.
You mean lacking any principles and will use anything possible for self aggrandisement
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
Markets are not rational shock!!
I would say that the markets regard Brexit as a bad move for the UK and that the harder the Brexit the worse it will be. Between May's last public utterance and yesterday's interview there was some speculation that we might get a transitional arrangement with the EU and/or that we may stay in the customs union and/or that we may seek special status for some industries. Whether she meant to or not, May seemed to rule all those things out yesterday. In the absence of other information, the markets have reacted.
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
When did you last go to France ? It is the pound which is plummeting.
The arrogance of the English is always a mystery. I remember in 1990 when Maggie finally lost her marbles and started swinging wildly at the EU. I had just finished a job which involved a day in the Irn Bru plant and another at Ravenscraig and going straight from there to the BMW factory in Munich.
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
Tbf the Tories closed down Ravenscraig 2 years later, though I doubt it was because it looked too scabby.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Economically May is the most centrist Tory leader since Major but she is also the most socially conservative since Howard, while she faces Corbyn, an even more left-wing leader than Foot, she should have few real problems
She has also to be careful. Great that she has a social conscience but she didn't just appear in government last year.
True but it is a message which fits the times
Yes, faultless rhetoric. As was her first No.10 speech.
Action, though?
There will be little action while we have endless negotiations in Brussels dominating the next few years, it will be more a case of straying the ship
So the poor get turned over and forgotten and no richer while we Brexit.
Almost as if people pointed out before the vote that Brexit would not help those who are most in need of help.
It was the poor and less educated who voted most heavily for Brexit and for immigration controls, so May is actually listening to them and not just wealthy, highly educated Remainers
Those who do not work also voted overwhelmingly for Brexit. Maybe May is actually listening to them.
I don't think it is self evident that leftists will vote for Fillon or stay at home.
1) Le Pen is the change agent leading "the People against the Elite". Fillon, as ex Prime Minister, is one of the elite. 2) Her economic policies appeals to the left wing more than Fillon's Thatcherite approach. 3) Her immigration policies and protectionist industrial policies may have more appeal to the left than Fillon's. 4) The annual Front march in Paris is in May Day. 5) She may get a little help from Putin.
I think it is a big mistake to simply think that Le Pen is even more right wing than Fillon so the left have no choice but to vote for Fillon or stay at home. There is a danger of group think on this.
Having said that, the polls for the second round show her a long way behind Fillon. But they also showed Fillon a long way behind Juppe and will shortly be discontinued until the real polls so we will be working in the dark.
I can understand why she is at 4.4 on Betfair (23% probability). It is quite possible we will have President Le Pen on 8th May. Then the UK can join with France in an Entente Cordiale as we jointly negotiate Article 50 with the remaining EU26. That'll be fun.
I think it is a mistake to equate primary polling with voting in a general election. In the former case you are choosing a member of your party, and voters are much more flexible. You see this in the US, in France, and anywhere where there are primaries.
In 2015, the Front National was polling at 32%, against 24% now. It totally failed to pick up transfer votes in real elections that year, despite the Bataclan attack.
Dromedary has calculated that even if MLP were to pick up every single additional vote on the back of the increase in turnout between the Regionals (which the FN won in the first round) and the Presidentials, she would still fall well short.
Furthermore, since the introduction of Internet polling, the FN has repeatedly undershot its opinion poll ratings.
Now, could she win? Of course. A series of major terror attacks could swing people behind her. But is it a 24% chance? No.
The fall in the pound in response to Theresa May's comments really is quite extraordinary. It's not as though she said anything at all new or in the least surprising. Economists (remember them?) used to tell us that well-developed financial markets already price in all known facts, and yet here is one of the most well-developed markets manifestly failing to do so, by reacting to non-news as though it were new information..
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
In some ways it is a good thing, the more it falls now and it already fell a lot post the Brexit vote, the less it has to fall once the eventual terms are concluded and it could even rise if the deal is better than expected. May is being realistic that full single market membership is unlikely given border control in some form is non negotiable
I agree. Over the last couple of years all Western economies have tried to devalue their currencies to improve export competitiveness. Most have failed. The reduction in sterling after the Brexit vote is to be welcomed and indeed if the final deal is better than the markets expect then there could be a (unwelcome) revaluation.
Look how Germany has done on entering the Euro with a devalued currency.
I can't help feeling that tying yourself too closely to a US president - especially one as divisive as Trump - will not play well in France (just as it won't in most other European countries, including the UK). That is potentially a problem for both Le Pen and Fillon; and will be for May, too, if she is not careful.
I don't think any of them are really, certainly there have been no selfies with him and visits to Trump Towers a la Farage
Le Pen is providing ammunition to a canny opponent:
A statement of the obvious, Brexit and Trump helps her, her core vote will not be that concerned by Trump, Trump will be loathed most of all by elite Parisians but they would not vote for Le Pen in any circumstances. George W Bush was toxic in much of the UK but Blair still won in 2005 despite his close relationship with him
She needs a lot more than her core vote to become president.
In the unlikely event she wins it will be because of rural and industrial France i.e. much the same coalition Trump built
It is worth remembering that the late 2015 elections where the FN topped the First Round poll did not have either Paris or Lyon voting. (Nor a number of the overseas Departements.)
Comments
"The EU, and its member states, are acting in their own interests. I don't think that's a surprise."
No, it's not a surprise. It's a reaction to a sudden shock. They really didn't see it coming.
Five years down the line, they'll realise the EU was still salvageable, but it will be too late. Fear and panic did for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/09/dreaming-of-europe-the-last-young-man-left-in-a-senegalese-village
Her head might be demanded as part of a coalition but I sincerely doubt it.
On Le Pen, I'd lay the granddaughter in both senses of the word.
https://twitter.com/GrandPrixTimes/status/818260271575744514
They aren't escaping a war zone. As much as I can understand why they would seek a better life in Europe from a pretty rubbish one in Africa, these are not refugees.
The reality is somewhat different at most stations - brick walls where ticket offices used to be and hardly a staff member to be seen outside of their cubbyholes or by the ticket barriers.
Yes, the staff are excellent and helpful but the Boris/TFL vision has turned out to be a lie at most stations and it's that which jars with me today. It's not a bad vision in theory but that's all it is and passengers are left with the worst of all worlds - poor stations with inadequate staff and unreliable machines.
You should be worried whether the UK is salvagable in five years not the EU.
(Ahem: the Euro is actually up against the dollar. DXY, the trade weighted dollar, is down 0.2% this morning.)
Grand-daughter.
Still trying to get my head round the May interview yesterday. Her vision of an active interventionist State could have come from Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine. I'm struggling with the concept of "the State" coming to the rescue of the poor citizen from apparently Government (isn't that "the State" as well ?).
At least on leaving the EU, there's clarity. Subject to an unexpected turn of events, the UK will be leaving the Single Market (I shed no tears) and will develop a new immigration policy (I wonder if, as Vince Cable observed, the stringent requirements already in place for non-EU nationals will simply be extended to EU nationals - does it include Ireland ?).
May has several advantages, two of which are Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn (bears repeating). She also knows small-state conservatives have nowhere else to go so will stay loyal. For now, the field is hers.
Does she inspire me (a non-Conservative) as Prime Minister ? Not at all but that doesn't matter.
Correlation can reflect causation, but is not evidence of it.
Joshua Rozenberg is tipping Sir Brian Leveson to become Lord Chief Justice in 2017
https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/comment-and-opinion/bench-warmers/5059277.article
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Italy: Beppe #Grillo wants to leave #Farage's EFDD and join #ALDE. Members of M5S can vote online for NI, EFDD or ALDE till today 1100 CET.
ALDE is the Liberal grouping in EU.
The former challenging to say the least and fair enough but the latter pretty scary from the lips of a Tory PM.
http://www.beppegrillo.it/2017/01/votazione_online_il_gruppo_politico_europeo_del_movimento_5_stelle.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/politics/marine-le-pen-interview-donald-trump/
Action, though?
I was very much pro-union in 2014, but it seems to me that the case for divorce is much stronger now. Scotland and England are clearly very different countries: the election in 2015 and Brexit have confirmed that. I'll be sad to see the UK break up as I think it was easily saveable and was worth saving, but I cannot see how it can survive.
At least she gets to stay PM. What does she care about what flavour of Brexit we get? Not going to touch her.
Plus in any case, our vote to Leave the EU was an explicit message that we didn't like the inequality of our society. Wasn't it. And there were we thinking the vote involved such wholly irrelevant issues as whether we would prefer an EEA-type deal, or Canada, or....
Almost as if people pointed out before the vote that Brexit would not help those who are most in need of help.
What I (and others) have repeatedly said is that you can't claim events have happened as a result of something else that hasn't happened yet.
You can correctly claim that the fall in Sterling today is as a result of things that Tezza said, you know, yesterday...
Why do Brexiteers struggle so with linear time?
https://mobile.twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810118255457222657
The contrast was of Star Wars like proprtions. The BMW plant was like a high tech Cathedral. It was huge and went on forever. The two in Scotland looked like the back lot of 'Steptoe and Son'. I couldn't imagine how the UK could ever hope to compete and yet here was our Prime Minister genuinely thinking she was Queen of the Universe. It was surreal
1) Le Pen is the change agent leading "the People against the Elite". Fillon, as ex Prime Minister, is one of the elite.
2) Her economic policies appeals to the left wing more than Fillon's Thatcherite approach.
3) Her immigration policies and protectionist industrial policies may have more appeal to the left than Fillon's.
4) The annual Front march in Paris is in May Day.
5) She may get a little help from Putin.
I think it is a big mistake to simply think that Le Pen is even more right wing than Fillon so the left have no choice but to vote for Fillon or stay at home. There is a danger of group think on this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27404016
Having said that, the polls for the second round show her a long way behind Fillon. But they also showed Fillon a long way behind Juppe and will shortly be discontinued until the real polls so we will be working in the dark.
I can understand why she is at 4.4 on Betfair (23% probability). It is quite possible we will have President Le Pen on 8th May. Then the UK can join with France in an Entente Cordiale as we jointly negotiate Article 50 with the remaining EU26. That'll be fun.
Ruth is nothing if not adaptable.
There is only one possible explanation for this weird behaviour, which is that the markets are still, even now, in denial about Brexit, and don't yet quite believe it.
The implication is very obvious: as the denial or reality gradually falls away, so will the pound fall further (and export-oriented shares rise relative to domestically-oriented ones). In particular, the actual triggering of Article 50 - which is is known known - is likely to have a market effect.
The movements on the markets following their blithe assumption due to faulty polling on the day of the vote was indicative of this.
How can this be...?
EDIT: Of course, because Brexit is such a BRILLIANT idea, the market movements will be upwards, right?
Fake news from the BBC?
http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2017/01/the-fundamental-pensions-error-at-heart.html
But I am glad to see you have not lost your nerve after yesterday's spectacular Titanic belly flop. Straight back on the horse.
None.
Don't your turnips need tending? Send some to Bath while you're at it - there's a Vicar (sic) there who could use one for a head.....
But a 1% movement in a floating currency is not worth getting that excited about.
I would say that the markets regard Brexit as a bad move for the UK and that the harder the Brexit the worse it will be. Between May's last public utterance and yesterday's interview there was some speculation that we might get a transitional arrangement with the EU and/or that we may stay in the customs union and/or that we may seek special status for some industries. Whether she meant to or not, May seemed to rule all those things out yesterday. In the absence of other information, the markets have reacted.
In 2015, the Front National was polling at 32%, against 24% now. It totally failed to pick up transfer votes in real elections that year, despite the Bataclan attack.
Dromedary has calculated that even if MLP were to pick up every single additional vote on the back of the increase in turnout between the Regionals (which the FN won in the first round) and the Presidentials, she would still fall well short.
Furthermore, since the introduction of Internet polling, the FN has repeatedly undershot its opinion poll ratings.
Now, could she win? Of course. A series of major terror attacks could swing people behind her. But is it a 24% chance? No.
Look how Germany has done on entering the Euro with a devalued currency.
Edited to add bit about Germany