politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

The importance of money in elections is overrated, Trump beat Hillary despite spending significantly less than she did. Given a choice between losing some money and losing your base you choose the former

Yes. I think the internet has levelled the playing field. A clever meme on social media (and Trump used Twitter brilliantly) does more than any posters or most TV ads.

So you only need to pay one guy a lot of cash to come up with smart ideas, rather than spend squillions on broadcast media.

"Take Back Control" basically won the referendum by itself.

Dadge said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/817482097350811648

*Buffs Nails*

I posted exactly that after the Tory conference and a few PBers pooh-poohed it.

See my sources were right, Brexit has the potential to lead to a donors' strike it.

What's he gonna do, stop funding the Tories so Corbyn's Labour has a better chance of winning?

Exactly. He has nowhere to go.

No, it forces pressure on Mrs May, Labour via the Unions are well funded, does Mrs May really want to go down in history as the Tory leader that didn't win a majority against Corbyn.

Why give you money to someone who ruins your business.

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease I donor by keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hm. May is (as ever) stuck between a rock and a hard place. More of her party want Hard Brexit than Soft, but that means pursuing a policy supported by only one third of voters. So pursuing HB will stop some Tories voting Ukip, but risks leaking more support to the LibDems.

The irony of her "Brexit means Brexit" line is that it's a lot truer for the EU than it is for her. Leaving the EU means leaving the single market and ending free movement. The idea that she "is preparing to give an ultimatum to the European Union that the UK will quit the single market unless it is allowed to opt out of free movement rules" ( https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/82099/theresa-may-prioritise ) is risible.

The EU will do a Norway-style (Soft Brexit) deal with the UK if the UK is willing to accept the EU's terms, no more, no less.

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Dadge said:

The EU will do a Norway-style (Soft Brexit) deal with the UK if the UK is willing to accept the EU's terms, no more, no less.

When the British political class as a whole is left with this stark choice, they will fold.

May is certainly not going to fold and lose half her voters to the Kippers, sorry she is not that stupid. At the end of the day it is she who will decide what to offer the EU not the political class, she will most likely offer a job offer requirement and limited budget contributions which is as much as she can do and if the EU agree some form of trade deal all to the good, if not she could not have offered any more

Dadge said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/817482097350811648

*Buffs Nails*

I posted exactly that after the Tory conference and a few PBers pooh-poohed it.

See my sources were right, Brexit has the potential to lead to a donors' strike it.

What's he gonna do, stop funding the Tories so Corbyn's Labour has a better chance of winning?

Exactly. He has nowhere to go.

No, it forces pressure on Mrs May, Labour via the Unions are well funded, does Mrs May really want to go down in history as the Tory leader that didn't win a majority against Corbyn.

Why give you money to someone who ruins your business.

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease I donor by keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hm. May is (as ever) stuck between a rock and a hard place. More of her party want Hard Brexit than Soft, but that means pursuing a policy supported by only one third of voters. So pursuing HB will stop some Tories voting Ukip, but risks leaking more support to the LibDems.

The irony of her "Brexit means Brexit" line is that it's a lot truer for the EU than it is for her. Leaving the EU means leaving the single market and ending free movement. The idea that she "is preparing to give an ultimatum to the European Union that the UK will quit the single market unless it is allowed to opt out of free movement rules" ( https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/82099/theresa-may-prioritise ) is risible.

The EU will do a Norway-style (Soft Brexit) deal with the UK if the UK is willing to accept the EU's terms, no more, no less.

MarkHopkins said:

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/817482097350811648

*Buffs Nails*

I posted exactly that after the Tory conference and a few PBers pooh-poohed it.

See my sources were right, Brexit has the potential to lead to a donors' strike it.

What's he gonna do, stop funding the Tories so Corbyn's Labour has a better chance of winning?

Exactly. He has nowhere to go.

No, it forces pressure on Mrs May, Labour via the Unions are well funded, does Mrs May really want to go down in history as the Tory leader that didn't win a majority against Corbyn.

Why give you money to someone who ruins your business.

And how good would it look if she changed her policy based on what a few rich donors wanted?

Rich donors do have influence, parties say they don't but it is ridiculous to say donors don't lobby their views. Whether a PM or LOTO takes on board somebodies views is another question, I should imagine some donors have quite dotty opinions on some subjects.

In regard to this particular donor, if leaving the single market ruins his business why would you donate to a party that makes your life more difficult? A similar process goes on once a party gains power as the new government makes decisions that gradually make some people's lives who voted them in more difficult. I voted Tory in 2015 but will not vote for them in 2020 or whenever the next GE is called. I don't blame the former donor for withdrawing his funding, if it means a hung parliament and Brexit has not been executed he gets what he wants.....

And if it means that A50 has been triggered, May loses and Corbyn gets in, and turns Britain into a nightmare state, separated from the EU, what does he get then?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dadge said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/817482097350811648

*Buffs Nails*

I posted exactly that after the Tory conference and a few PBers pooh-poohed it.

See my sources were right, Brexit has the potential to lead to a donors' strike it.

What's he gonna do, stop funding the Tories so Corbyn's Labour has a better chance of winning?

Exactly. He has nowhere to go.

No, it forces pressure on Mrs May, Labour via the Unions are well funded, does Mrs May really want to go down in history as the Tory leader that didn't win a majority against Corbyn.

Why give you money to someone who ruins your business.

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease I donor by keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hm. May is (as ever) stuck between a rock and a hard place. More of her party want Hard Brexit than Soft, but that means pursuing a policy supported by only one third of voters. So pursuing HB will stop some Tories voting Ukip, but risks leaking more support to the LibDems.

The irony of her "Brexit means Brexit" line is that it's a lot truer for the EU than it is for her. Leaving the EU means leaving the single market and ending free movement. The idea that she "is preparing to give an ultimatum to the European Union that the UK will quit the single market unless it is allowed to opt out of free movement rules" ( https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/82099/theresa-may-prioritise ) is risible.

The EU will do a Norway-style (Soft Brexit) deal with the UK if the UK is willing to accept the EU's terms, no more, no less.

We may as well stay in as agreeing a Norway deal requires full freedom of movement

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Dadge said:

The EU will do a Norway-style (Soft Brexit) deal with the UK if the UK is willing to accept the EU's terms, no more, no less.

When the British political class as a whole is left with this stark choice, they will fold.

May is certainly not going to fold and lose half her voters to the Kippers, sorry she is not that stupid. At the end of the day it is she who will decide what to offer the EU not the political class, she will most likely offer a job offer requirement and limited budget contributions which is as much as she can do and if the EU agree some form of trade deal all to the good, if not she could not have offered any more

And it's the EU who will tell her what she can have. The positioning on hard Brexit is a clear bluff which she will be called on.

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

Wow. Link?

Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.

Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Dadge said:

The EU will do a Norway-style (Soft Brexit) deal with the UK if the UK is willing to accept the EU's terms, no more, no less.

When the British political class as a whole is left with this stark choice, they will fold.

May is certainly not going to fold and lose half her voters to the Kippers, sorry she is not that stupid. At the end of the day it is she who will decide what to offer the EU not the political class, she will most likely offer a job offer requirement and limited budget contributions which is as much as she can do and if the EU agree some form of trade deal all to the good, if not she could not have offered any more

And it's the EU who will tell her what she can have. The positioning on hard Brexit is a clear bluff which she will be called on.

steve_garner said:

TSE piles in to the PM on behalf of rich Tory donors. Some Remainers just don't get it.

steve_garner said:

TSE piles in to the PM on behalf of rich Tory donors. Some Remainers just don't get it.

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

But there are hundreds of options in the middle: work, but no benefits; visa automatic with job offer; stay dependent on buying private health insurance, etc. etc. etc.

I saw a suggestion to have a long-term residency requirement for access to in work benefits of say 5 years. This would be no problem for people who had grown up here, but would mean a high bar for new EU migrants. On the face of it it would be non-discriminatory since the same rule would apply for everyone.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

But there are hundreds of options in the middle: work, but no benefits; visa automatic with job offer; stay dependent on buying private health insurance, etc. etc. etc.

I saw a suggestion to have a long-term residency requirement for access to in work benefits of say 5 years. This would be no problem for people who had grown up here, but would mean a high bar for new EU migrants. On the face of it it would be non-discriminatory since the same rule would apply for everyone.

Seems like a pretty sensible idea. I wonder why something like this wasn't pursued. All Cameron got was a temporary freeze on in-work benefits for new arrivals for seven years.

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The poll asked them would they back hard Brexit even if it meant higher unemployment, a slowdown in the economy and less money to spend on key services and they still said yes.

steve_garner said:

foxinsoxuk said:

steve_garner said:

TSE piles in to the PM on behalf of rich Tory donors. Some Remainers just don't get it.

Rich donors can buy a lot of political influence. Ask Aaron Banks, or Trumps cabinet of multi-million dollar donors.

If you say so. I don't think you understand what's important to this PM though.

The_Taxman said:

steve_garner said:

foxinsoxuk said:

steve_garner said:

TSE piles in to the PM on behalf of rich Tory donors. Some Remainers just don't get it.

Rich donors can buy a lot of political influence. Ask Aaron Banks, or Trumps cabinet of multi-million dollar donors.

If you say so. I don't think you understand what's important to this PM though.

I don't think anyone understands what MAY finds important other than her being PM. She is a complete blank sheet of paper and utterly useless - reminds me of Gordon Brown.....

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

steve_garner said:

Well Mr Taxman, you might think the PM's useless. The opinion polls seem to suggest many others disagree. You may be better waiting a while before delivering such an unequivocal verdict. If she's not the only game in town, feel free to nominate an alternative.

steve_garner said:

Well Mr Taxman, you might think the PM's useless. The opinion polls seem to suggest many others disagree. You may be better waiting a while before delivering such an unequivocal verdict. If she's not the only game in town, feel free to nominate an alternative.

The_Taxman said:

steve_garner said:

Well Mr Taxman, you might think the PM's useless. The opinion polls seem to suggest many others disagree. You may be better waiting a while before delivering such an unequivocal verdict. If she's not the only game in town, feel free to nominate an alternative.

They said that Brown was the only game in town in 2007, the point is many could fill her shoes. The list of potential replacements is long and broad. Whether they would want to do it now is another question. Who do I think would be interesting in the long run? Mark Harper.

steve_garner said:

Freggles said:

steve_garner said:

Well Mr Taxman, you might think the PM's useless. The opinion polls seem to suggest many others disagree. You may be better waiting a while before delivering such an unequivocal verdict. If she's not the only game in town, feel free to nominate an alternative.

It would have been easy to make this argument during Gordon Brown's honeymoon period

Ok go on then. You nominate an a viable alternative to May. The Tories at least tried to have a proper contest before May prevailed. Any number of Labour MP's thought David Miliband was preferable to Brown, they were just cowed into towing the line.

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Hard Brexit is ideal for me, especially with the collapse in sterling.

DID I MENTION THAT I AM RIGHT NOW EARNING €20,000 A WEEK FROM GERMANY?

The_Taxman said:

steve_garner said:

Well Mr Taxman, you might think the PM's useless. The opinion polls seem to suggest many others disagree. You may be better waiting a while before delivering such an unequivocal verdict. If she's not the only game in town, feel free to nominate an alternative.

They said that Brown was the only game in town in 2007, the point is many could fill her shoes. The list of potential replacements is long and broad. Whether they would want to do it now is another question. Who do I think would be interesting in the long run? Mark Harper.

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Hard Brexit is ideal for me, especially with the collapse in sterling.

DID I MENTION THAT I AM RIGHT NOW EARNING €20,000 A WEEK FROM GERMANY?

Aren't you concerned about tariffs on British books

There are weird scary Brexit rumours circling the publishing world - problems with double tax exemptions. I suspect nothing terrible will happen.

The more worrying development for authors is the government's intention to make all self employed people file quarterly tax returns, as I understand it? What a bore.

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Hard Brexit is ideal for me, especially with the collapse in sterling.

DID I MENTION THAT I AM RIGHT NOW EARNING €20,000 A WEEK FROM GERMANY?

Good for you. Also good for those people who get the tax you pay on that redistributed in benefits especially the polish immigrants getting tax credits......

Brexit has basically given me a 15-20% pay rise.

*hiccups*

Luckyguy1983 said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

Luckily the Cameroons are useless. Look at Osborne. When Portillo and Hague were cast out of power, they gained a new likeability and career rejuvination followed. Osborne by contrast has engaged in transparent hissy plots.

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Hard Brexit is ideal for me, especially with the collapse in sterling.

DID I MENTION THAT I AM RIGHT NOW EARNING €20,000 A WEEK FROM GERMANY?

Well done. was this consistent before the crash or new business in the pound or new business because of it or did you release a new book (unrelated)?

I've got two different books in the German top ten bestseller lists, as of this week (Ice Twins in mass market paperback, Fire Child in full price hardback)

The joy of being popular in Germany is that 1. they still have net price book agreement (so hardbacks sell at €15, there's no discounting) and 2. German readers are loyal and persistent (once you're in the list, you tend to stay there, Brits are much more fickle) and 3. it's a massive market, 3rd biggest in the world behind America and China (Japan is 4th, UK 5th)

Germany alone, if you crack it, can provide an author with a handsome income. And that is very rare these days.

Danke, Deutschland.

The_Taxman said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Hard Brexit is ideal for me, especially with the collapse in sterling.

DID I MENTION THAT I AM RIGHT NOW EARNING €20,000 A WEEK FROM GERMANY?

Good for you. Also good for those people who get the tax you pay on that redistributed in benefits especially the polish immigrants getting tax credits......

Brexit has basically given me a 15-20% pay rise.

*hiccups*

Indeed, all hard Brexit will mean is WTO tariffs and the exchange rate will fall closer to Pound/ Euro parity. I am well aware of this. But I am glad someone has done well out of Brexit because I have not!

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Hard Brexit is ideal for me, especially with the collapse in sterling.

DID I MENTION THAT I AM RIGHT NOW EARNING €20,000 A WEEK FROM GERMANY?

Aren't you concerned about tariffs on British books

There are weird scary Brexit rumours circling the publishing world - problems with double tax exemptions. I suspect nothing terrible will happen.

The more worrying development for authors is the government's intention to make all self employed people file quarterly tax returns, as I understand it? What a bore.

I seem to recall that the quarterly piece of HMRC nonsense has been quietly shelved. I am willing to be corrected however.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

Try selling that on the doorsteps of Copeland.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

The proposed change is not until 2018 and those who are so committed to final salary pensions will be voting Labour anyway. If the Tories win Copeland it will largely be through squeezing the UKIP vote with a few Labour votes lost to the LDs

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

Try selling that on the doorsteps of Copeland.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

The proposed change is not until 2018 and those who are so committed to final salary pensions will be voting Labour anyway. If the Tories win Copeland it will largely be through squeezing the UKIP vote with a few Labour votes lost to the LDs

Sellafield are the biggest employer there, with quite a lot of well paid jobs.

Copeland will be won by a local candidate fighting on local issues.

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

Wow. Link?

Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.

Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.

If the child porn rumour about this one is correct it could be a rather oblique piece in the evidence chain. You'd be surprised how much of certain types of pornography is found on many an IS sympathiser's seized computer. There are some who consider it a small part of the profiling template.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

Try selling that on the doorsteps of Copeland.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

The proposed change is not until 2018 and those who are so committed to final salary pensions will be voting Labour anyway. If the Tories win Copeland it will largely be through squeezing the UKIP vote with a few Labour votes lost to the LDs

Sellafield are the biggest employer there, with quite a lot of well paid jobs.

Copeland will be won by a local candidate fighting on local issues.

Tim_B said:

The state of emergency is now in effect -they said the rain would start at 2pm and it did. Temperature are dropping and will reach freezing in an hour or so, so it will switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to snow overnight. We're expecting about 4 inches.

Local TV stations have suspended regular programming and have wall to wall weather coverage. They have correspondents all over the ATL metro, for example WSB "Severe Storm Team 2" and Action News folks are breathlessly reporting every flurry and sleet report, and traffic jams. HD Radar, interactive traffic flow maps - you name it they have it.

The Weather Channel, a nationwide channel has reporters all over Atlanta, and shows all the various models showing projected snowfall etc. (The Weather Channel studios are in Atlanta).

One has to wonder how viewers in Fargo, Bismarck or International Falls view this saturation coverage of a 4 inch snow storm, (which will shut the place down for 2 to 3 days) compared to what they regularly get. I suspect either a wry smile or just outright contempt for southern wusses.

It is almost mesmeric to watch though - an enjoyable slow motion train wreck

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

But there are hundreds of options in the middle: work, but no benefits; visa automatic with job offer; stay dependent on buying private health insurance, etc. etc. etc.

I saw a suggestion to have a long-term residency requirement for access to in work benefits of say 5 years. This would be no problem for people who had grown up here, but would mean a high bar for new EU migrants. On the face of it it would be non-discriminatory since the same rule would apply for everyone.

Seems like a pretty sensible idea. I wonder why something like this wasn't pursued. All Cameron got was a temporary freeze on in-work benefits for new arrivals for seven years.

A five year residency qualification for tax credits would be perfectly possible within the EU, as long as it applied to UK citizens too.

steve_garner said:

The_Taxman said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Tory voters back hard Brexit over soft Brexit by a 13% margin, May is more likely to lose her majority if she fails to control free movement and sees mass defections to UKIP than if she fails to appease 1 donor by not keeping full access to the single market
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/810116884850941953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Thing is, they also think Hard Brexit is free of consequences and they are not going to change their minds on that point until confronted with undeniable evidence, ie when it's too late, and maybe not even then.

So far it looks like Theresa May will go with the iconoclasts. It's all very Cultural Revolution.

The people who want hard Brexit are totally unconcerned about its effects on peoples lives who do not have the control or certainty in life they may have.. Indeed they seem to revel in it, maybe they know they are immune from the consequences personally? I don't know. What I do know is if the masses suddenly experience a drop in living standards it will be Labour that will be the main beneficiary and the smug professionals, self employed and the financially independent may well find they are in the cross hairs of a resurgent Labour party on a turbo charged mission to create social justice.

Ok Mr FF43 and Mr Taxman, you seem to know a lot a lot about what so called hard brexiteers think. Brexit had big majorities in Hull, Huddersfield, Halifax, Bradford, Bolton, Barnsley, Burnley, Blackburn, Doncaster, Rotherham, Sunderland, Middlesborough Hartlepool and countless other towns. Since you apparently know so much about what these people think how about you tell us how many residents of these towns you've spoken to since the vote?

RobD said:

nunu said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

Wow. Link?

Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.

Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.

If the child porn rumour about this one is correct it could be a rather oblique piece in the evidence chain. You'd be surprised how much of certain types of pornography is found on many an IS sympathiser's seized computer. There are some who consider it a small part of the profiling template.

As an aside there is a LOT of child porn out there. When I search for "Teen fucked" or something along those lines you come across thumbnails that looks like children they try to get away with it by labelling it as "young teen" or "twink" or whatever but they are so young looking. It's shocking how much and how easy it is to access. Or am I being naive? Probably, but I don't see what they can do about it?

I, on the other hand, use incognito mode to learn more about the AV voting system. Don't want anyone else finding out about that dirty habit!

RobD said:

nunu said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

Wow. Link?

Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.

Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.

If the child porn rumour about this one is correct it could be a rather oblique piece in the evidence chain. You'd be surprised how much of certain types of pornography is found on many an IS sympathiser's seized computer. There are some who consider it a small part of the profiling template.

As an aside there is a LOT of child porn out there. When I search for "Teen fucked" or something along those lines you come across thumbnails that looks like children they try to get away with it by labelling it as "young teen" or "twink" or whatever but they are so young looking. It's shocking how much and how easy it is to access. Or am I being naive? Probably, but I don't see what they can do about it?

I, on the other hand, use incognito mode to learn more about the AV voting system. Don't want anyone else finding out about that dirty habit!

brokenwheel said:

RobD said:

nunu said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

Wow. Link?

Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.

Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.

If the child porn rumour about this one is correct it could be a rather oblique piece in the evidence chain. You'd be surprised how much of certain types of pornography is found on many an IS sympathiser's seized computer. There are some who consider it a small part of the profiling template.

As an aside there is a LOT of child porn out there. When I search for "Teen fucked" or something along those lines you come across thumbnails that looks like children they try to get away with it by labelling it as "young teen" or "twink" or whatever but they are so young looking. It's shocking how much and how easy it is to access. Or am I being naive? Probably, but I don't see what they can do about it?

I, on the other hand, use incognito mode to learn more about the AV voting system. Don't want anyone else finding out about that dirty habit!

Be careful, you might catch an STV.

rpjs said:

SeanT said:

The worst form I've ever had to fill in was the claim for exemption from double US tax. Oh my word. American bureaucracy can be quite impressive.

My theory is this. What is now the US was largely settled by colonists from the British Isles and Germany. It could have had a bureaucracy with British flexibility and German efficiency. Sadly it got the opposite.

foxinsoxuk said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

Try selling that on the doorsteps of Copeland.

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

isam said:

Reading the Runes it seems the Cameroons think if May is a failure, and obviously they are desperately trying to create a narrative that she is destined to be, it will be back to one of their own...

I bet Blairites thought the same after EdM

I think May will do alright.

Another factor in Copeland?

Tory attacks on pensions of the 10 000 Sellafield workers in the run up to the byelection?

Doesn't sound a vote winner to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/28/sellafield-tory-conservative-byelection-cumbria-unions-copeland

Ending final salary pensions and replacing them with contributory ones is simply what every sane organisation in the private sector is doing

The proposed change is not until 2018 and those who

Sellafield are the biggest employer there, with quite a lot of well paid jobs.

Copeland will be won by a local candidate fighting on local issues.

Labour runs and riders in Nukeland:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/corbyn-candidate-rachel-holliday-joins-race-to-be-labours-copeland-byelection-mp-2017-1

Definitely a local candidate for local issues. I think Labour is going to win and is value still. This is not a place where May's party will thrive.

nunu said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

Your boyo that did the shooting at the airport in Ft Lauderdale had taken an interest in Jihadi stuff in the past. How deep is unclear.

Wow. Link?

Reportedly hung around Jihadi web forums in the past but its hard from the sketch to say how much this is a present thing.

Just done some digging. Sounds like you're right. Lived within walking distance of the only mosque in Alaska. Known to FBI for ISIS ravings.

If the child porn rumour about this one is correct it could be a rather oblique piece in the evidence chain. You'd be surprised how much of certain types of pornography is found on many an IS sympathiser's seized computer. There are some who consider it a small part of the profiling template.

As an aside there is a LOT of child porn out there. When I search for "Teen fucked" or something along those lines you come across thumbnails that looks like children they try to get away with it by labelling it as "young teen" or "twink" or whatever but they are so young looking. It's shocking how much and how easy it is to access. Or am I being naive? Probably, but I don't see what they can do about it?