politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At some stage some of the “will Trump survive” bets will be va
Comments
-
Yes - they lied to voters. The Tories on both sides of the referendum campaign spent a lot of time doing that.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
0 -
We hear a lot from various bodies about their 'independence' these days. Seems to only happen when politicians get ideas in their heads and depart from the internationalist orthodoxy.TOPPING said:
The Bank of England is independent.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen0 -
The £4,300 was by 2030. The idea that it is sensitive to whether article 50 is triggered in June 2016 or March 2017 is nonsense.
There were *other* figures quoted, e.g. for when the UK might enter a recession, for which the date of A50 makes more sense as a necessary assumption.0 -
I am struggling to see how pointing out that our economy is doing well inside the Single Market is hardly dancing on the head of a pin. It is a statement of fact.Floater said:
Scott joining Southam as being champion of dancing on the head of a pin.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
BTW - it wasn't just those two (Cameron / Osborne) making the claims - I am pretty sure Scott knows all this but unfortunately that's not on his narrative.
0 -
Let's ignore for a moment that the Jaguar factory is not in Solihull, the myth that UK car manufacturing is not completely dependent on components from the EU is persistent and false.Luckyguy1983 said:Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Much of the old Range Rover came in boxes from Stuttgart0 -
How does Germany lowering its excessively high savings rate work? I thought interest rates were zero or negative there. Pushing on a string?rcs1000 said:
While daodao is excessively pessimistic, the view that - as the creditor nation - it is the EU that is the only loser from Hard Brexit is fundamentally misguided. Germany can respond to lower external demand by increasing internal demand: i.e., lowering its excessively high savings rate and letting Germans be the ones to drive around in new Mercedes rather than Brits. We, on the other hand, have no such safety net.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU loses 100 billion of trade.daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
0 -
wasn't that her job?TheScreamingEagles said:Yay.
@politicshome: EXCL Shami Chakrabarti urges Labour to reach verdict on Ken Livingstone Hitler remarks https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/82128/excl-shami-chakrabarti-urges-labour-reach-verdict0 -
Yeah, that as well. TBF, I was surprised by how much Miliband took from the undecideds, until one realises he barely dented that amount anyway.MarqueeMark said:
Or more likely, not vote at all.BannedInParis said:
A quick check would be to go to early in 2010-2015 when there were still don't knows on that scale.MarqueeMark said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/23/best-pm-cameron-lead-14/
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/axuqr6j92z/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-220415.pdf
Now, I've gone for a single data point when there were DKs of 39 in 2012 - mid-February
Cameron 37 %
Miliband 19 %
Clegg 6 %
Don't Knows 39 %
By the time the election came around, after 5 years of cuts and government and all that, they had split. Just by, well, not very much.
Cameron 40 %
Miliband 29 %
Clegg 6 %
Don't Knows 27 %
The problem isn't that they're going to split favorably or otherwise, it's that they're really not going to split much at all.
0 -
The forecasts (from NIESR IIRC) were not lies. They were forecasts. Could they have been avoided? Well we shall see. Could they be tied down to any particular short-term period, such as "immediately after the actual vote?" not sure either, hence the BoE's pre-emptive move which seemed to have kept us shopping.SouthamObserver said:
Yes - they lied to voters. The Tories on both sides of the referendum campaign spent a lot of time doing that.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
The bloke on the radio this morning from Cambridge Research seemed to think that we can avoid any negative impact from leaving the single market. Well he is head of that unit and I am a PB poster so I'm sure there is some substance to his views; I'll take a (relatively less well-informed) look. It seems strange but of course welcome if that is the case.0 -
Jaguar seems to think it is in Solihull:Scott_P said:
Let's ignore for a moment that the Jaguar factory is not in Solihull, the myth that UK car manufacturing is not completely dependent on components from the EU is persistent and false.Luckyguy1983 said:Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Much of the old Range Rover came in boxes from Stuttgart
http://www.jaguar.co.uk/experience-jaguar/factory-tours/solihull.html
0 -
But it was your judgment several posts ago, and would be presumably be the judgment of any historian that you could link to proposing that Sealion was 'by far the largest German operation of WW2 in terms of men, materials, cost and prep effort. Larger even than Barabarossa', and that 'the drain it imposed upon the Germans was a significant reason for the delay in launching Barbarossa a year later'.Patrick said:This is hardly war effort draining stuff.
Well....the logistical scale of Sealion vs Barbarossa is not my judgment
However let's not continue, I can see this is getting tediously circular.0 -
Really? I'd have thought that Germans could do electrics and air suspension better then.Scott_P said:
Let's ignore for a moment that the Jaguar factory is not in Solihull, the myth that UK car manufacturing is not completely dependent on components from the EU is persistent and false.Luckyguy1983 said:Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Much of the old Range Rover came in boxes from Stuttgart0 -
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?Ishmael_Z said:
Oh. purlease. From your link:rottenborough said:
It seems Hitler derided experts , who claimed to know about the Russian winter and didn't believe weather forecasters:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/5907564/Second-World-War-Frozen-to-death-by-the-Fuhrer.html
"Prior to Operation Barbarossa, the Nazis could have been certain that their invasion of Russia, which began on June 22, 1941, was in for a very cold winter.
It was a matter of simple statistical analysis, the kind at which Adolf Hitler's High Command was supposed to excel. But the German commissariat had hubristically not transported anything like enough woollen hats, gloves, long johns and overcoats to Russia."
We have all the supercomputers anyone could ask for dedicated to weather forecasting, and forecasts are now reliable to about 4 days out (a massive achievement, even if it doesn't sound like one, because forecasting anything is really, really difficult. So knowing anything by "simple statistical analysis" six months plus preparation time in advance is impossible now, never mind then.
What you have to realise is that expertise on any substantial question is always tentative. Like anyone with a PhD I am or have been the world's leading expert on one particularly abstruse and uninteresting topic, but I wouldn't bet the farm either on my judgment or on the consensus judgment of me plus the next 5 closest experts on the subject. And that's just consensus on the facts: consensus on a forecast (of anything) has so little value it is hardly worth attempting. Look at all the expertise poured out by (genuine) experts on steeplechasing on the National in the run up to Aintree. The result must be so clear before the race starts that there is hardly any point in running it - true or false? And if macro-economic forecasting is so easy, where are the experts' Lear jets? Banging on about Gove when he was essentially right is like repeating all those jolly funny gags about the cowardice of the French in staying out of Iraq.0 -
Germany has a savings and austerity culture, changing that is not going to be easy, just as changing British culture to be more thrifty wony be easy even if interest rates go up to 2%. Spending is just to ingrained in our way of life just as saving is too ingrained in German life.Ishmael_Z said:
How does Germany lowering its excessively high savings rate work? I thought interest rates were zero or negative there. Pushing on a string?rcs1000 said:
While daodao is excessively pessimistic, the view that - as the creditor nation - it is the EU that is the only loser from Hard Brexit is fundamentally misguided. Germany can respond to lower external demand by increasing internal demand: i.e., lowering its excessively high savings rate and letting Germans be the ones to drive around in new Mercedes rather than Brits. We, on the other hand, have no such safety net.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU loses 100 billion of trade.daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
0 -
Cheers to those who voted in the cover poll. B won with 75% (that's the gauntlet cover, rather than the dragon one): http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/and-preferred-cover-is.html0
-
Don't you mean Shirley?MarqueeMark said:Jaguar seems to think it is in Solihull:
http://www.jaguar.co.uk/experience-jaguar/factory-tours/solihull.html
0 -
The big advantage that we seem to have post-Brexit-vote is that our currency is 10-15% devalued against others. Surely that means exports are doing well and the costs of imported raw materials haven’t worked through yet. It’s also incredibly cheap to borrow money!SouthamObserver said:
I am struggling to see how pointing out that our economy is doing well inside the Single Market is hardly dancing on the head of a pin. It is a statement of fact.Floater said:
Scott joining Southam as being champion of dancing on the head of a pin.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
BTW - it wasn't just those two (Cameron / Osborne) making the claims - I am pretty sure Scott knows all this but unfortunately that's not on his narrative.
Edited for FFS0 -
If you've been in German shops you'd understand why. Customer service is, to put it politely, lacking.MaxPB said:
Germany has a savings and austerity culture, changing that is not going to be easy, just as changing British culture to be more thrifty wony be easy even if interest rates go up to 2%. Spending is just to ingrained in our way of life just as saving is too ingrained in German life.Ishmael_Z said:
How does Germany lowering its excessively high savings rate work? I thought interest rates were zero or negative there. Pushing on a string?rcs1000 said:
While daodao is excessively pessimistic, the view that - as the creditor nation - it is the EU that is the only loser from Hard Brexit is fundamentally misguided. Germany can respond to lower external demand by increasing internal demand: i.e., lowering its excessively high savings rate and letting Germans be the ones to drive around in new Mercedes rather than Brits. We, on the other hand, have no such safety net.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU loses 100 billion of trade.daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
0 -
Should he be calling it the Great Wall ?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/8173298233748316170 -
I think we are going to have to get used to the Guardian writing the word Brexit in the headline of every business closure for the next five years.OldKingCole said:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/06/jamie-oliver-close-restaurants-brexit-jamies-italian-barbecoa
Jamie Oliver’s closing restaurants as times get tougher.
Just saying.
Well known chefs trying to launch chain restaurants is a notoriously fickle business, they all find it impossible to keep the standards without the 'Name' chef actually being at the restaurant past the opening night.0 -
Shirley you mean Sheldon?Scott_P said:
Don't you mean Shirley?MarqueeMark said:Jaguar seems to think it is in Solihull:
http://www.jaguar.co.uk/experience-jaguar/factory-tours/solihull.html0 -
A Sterling devaluation also increases domestic demand for semi-manufactured goods at the expense or overseas importation. In countries like Germany which have extensive semi-manufactured industries this is extremely useful, in the UK where it has been gutted by poor management and high energy prices it is less so and would require tens of billions worth of investment and government sweeties to rebuild. As of now it is difficult to see companies investing tens of billions or the government being in a position to give away sweeties, but stranger things have happened and business investment is up quite a lot YoY while the government is clearly in the mood to hand out sweeties (see Nissan).OldKingCole said:
The big advantage that we seem to have post-Brexit-vote is that our currtency is 10-15% devalued against others. Surely that means exports are doing well and the costs of imported raw materials haven’t worked through yet. It’s also incredibly cheap to borrow money!SouthamObserver said:
I am struggling to see how pointing out that our economy is doing well inside the Single Market is hardly dancing on the head of a pin. It is a statement of fact.Floater said:
Scott joining Southam as being champion of dancing on the head of a pin.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
BTW - it wasn't just those two (Cameron / Osborne) making the claims - I am pretty sure Scott knows all this but unfortunately that's not on his narrative.0 -
No, but in the age of mainstream media perpetrating outright falsehoods in support of their editorial line or prefered political position, it is valid to question who is actually presenting us with the truth, as opposed to what we want to hear.logical_song said:
Agreed, but asking 'Whose truth?' as AlsoIndigo did leads one to think that maybe anybody's 'truth' is as valuable as anybody else's. I don't accept that.Richard_Tyndall said:
But one can very reasonably argue that no human can know absolute truth. It is like Plato's (the original not the cat loving version on here) Theory of Forms. In this instance it is fairly obvious to all that the so called 'truths' are nothing of the sort.logical_song said:
Absolute Truth - A Logical NecessityAlsoIndigo said:
Whose truth ?logical_song said:
You can always ignore the truth, but it must help to be told it.Dromedary said:
"Telling truth to power", even in its original form of "speaking truth to power", is a phrase that makes me switch RIGHT OFF.FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/817114298795327489
Not sure bad al banging on about bullied government experts is a good idea!
It's only used nowadays by lazy b*stards, by human peacocks whose image of their own practice is very poorly aligned with its real character, and by the highly confused.
That's even when it doesn't come from a former tabloid editor turned government propagandist like Campbell, and even given that it was a Quaker radical who first used the phrase and generally speaking I have a lot of respect for Quaker radicals.
Speak truth to power and they'll probably ignore you, shoot you, or recruit you. That's if you're not already working for them and telling them the kind of truth they like. Then they'll give you a bonus or at least keep on paying you. Save me from the dopy whinging of the "expert", the "intellectual" and the hack writer!
You can't logically argue against the existence of absolute truth.
Even in today's paper is as good as admitted that economists are in crisis for the inaccuracy and in many cases completely misleading claims, and these are the people that are suppose to know, so its is a fair question to ask, whose truth.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors0 -
German consumers would have newer cars: I think they'd regard that as a gainLuckyguy1983 said:That would ease the pain for their car companies, but not result in any gain for their economy would it? Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Remainers seem to be coming back to the fact that Brexit will fail because the underlying British economy is indepted, weak and only floating along on a bubble of misplaced trust - exactly. I don't want that any more, because in our out of the EU, it would have failed at some point. Better these things are faced up to now, and without the financial drain and increasing imposition of harmonisation that the EU represents.
Ultimately, we do 'work' in order to be able to consume. From the point of view of the average voter, they want to get the maximum consumption out of the minimum amount of work. Unbalanced economies are those where there is insufficient consumption (the country piles up quantities of foreign remittances that may end up being worthless), where there is excessive consumption.
Germany falls into the former category, and we into the latter. (Indeed, we've gone from being a country where foreign assets outnumbered liabilities by 60% of GDP to one where liabilities exceed assets by 50% of GDP- and all in about 25 years.)
My point - simply - is that it is easier to formulate politically acceptable economic policy to deal with excessive levels of saving than it is to to deal with excessive levels of consumption. We are lucky that the weak level of sterling is beginning to help rebalance our economy, reducing our consumption somewhat, while boosting our export income.
If we reduce our consumption very rapidly, the economic consequences (in the short term) will be serious. Look at other economies - whether floating exchange rate or fixed - where the savings rate jumped 5-6%. The UK at the beginning of the 1990s; Spain in 2011-12.
This is not about Brexit. This is about the UK economy being fundamentally unbalanced.0 -
What's this then, an elaborate ruse? http://www.jaguar.com/experience-jaguar/behind-the-scenes/solihull.htmlScott_P said:
Let's ignore for a moment that the Jaguar factory is not in Solihull, the myth that UK car manufacturing is not completely dependent on components from the EU is persistent and false.Luckyguy1983 said:Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Much of the old Range Rover came in boxes from Stuttgart
I didn't say anything about Range Rovers or indeed Land Rovers. So far as I'm aware, the parts for Jaguars are made in the UK.0 -
I went shopping in a German border town, Lörrach, and they were pretty friendly there but I guess they are catering for rich Swiss consumers so they have to be.matt said:
If you've been in German shops you'd understand why. Customer service is, to put it politely, lacking.MaxPB said:
Germany has a savings and austerity culture, changing that is not going to be easy, just as changing British culture to be more thrifty wony be easy even if interest rates go up to 2%. Spending is just to ingrained in our way of life just as saving is too ingrained in German life.Ishmael_Z said:
How does Germany lowering its excessively high savings rate work? I thought interest rates were zero or negative there. Pushing on a string?rcs1000 said:
While daodao is excessively pessimistic, the view that - as the creditor nation - it is the EU that is the only loser from Hard Brexit is fundamentally misguided. Germany can respond to lower external demand by increasing internal demand: i.e., lowering its excessively high savings rate and letting Germans be the ones to drive around in new Mercedes rather than Brits. We, on the other hand, have no such safety net.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU loses 100 billion of trade.daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
0 -
Christ on a bike, another 4 pages of bickering over BrExit, life is too short, later all 0
-
Mortgage interest tax relief would be my preferred stimulus measure.Ishmael_Z said:
How does Germany lowering its excessively high savings rate work? I thought interest rates were zero or negative there. Pushing on a string?rcs1000 said:
While daodao is excessively pessimistic, the view that - as the creditor nation - it is the EU that is the only loser from Hard Brexit is fundamentally misguided. Germany can respond to lower external demand by increasing internal demand: i.e., lowering its excessively high savings rate and letting Germans be the ones to drive around in new Mercedes rather than Brits. We, on the other hand, have no such safety net.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU loses 100 billion of trade.daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
0 -
FlankerSandpit said:
I think we are going to have to get used to the Guardian writing the word Brexit in the headline of every business closure for the next five years.OldKingCole said:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/06/jamie-oliver-close-restaurants-brexit-jamies-italian-barbecoa
Jamie Oliver’s closing restaurants as times get tougher.
Just saying.
Well known chefs trying to launch chain restaurants is a notoriously fickle business, they all find it impossible to keep the standards without the 'Name' chef actually being at the restaurant past the opening night.
.@KTHopkins @somersetlevel @guardian he didn't blame #brexit in 2015 https://t.co/PXJG6tm8zx0 -
Should be sung from the hilltops.rcs1000 said:
This is not about Brexit. This is about the UK economy being fundamentally unbalanced.Luckyguy1983 said:That would ease the pain for their car companies, but not result in any gain for their economy would it? Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Remainers seem to be coming back to the fact that Brexit will fail because the underlying British economy is indepted, weak and only floating along on a bubble of misplaced trust - exactly. I don't want that any more, because in our out of the EU, it would have failed at some point. Better these things are faced up to now, and without the financial drain and increasing imposition of harmonisation that the EU represents.
Not to hijack your post, but many Brexiters think Brexit can solve all such domestic problems.0 -
"the great wall ... and fence" surely? :-)TheScreamingEagles said:Should he be calling it the Great Wall ?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/8173298233748316170 -
I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.0
-
So you can buy an F-Pace made in Solihull...Luckyguy1983 said:What's this then, an elaborate ruse? http://www.jaguar.com/experience-jaguar/behind-the-scenes/solihull.html
I didn't say anything about Range Rovers or indeed Land Rovers. So far as I'm aware, the parts for Jaguar's are made in the UK.
Bad luck if you want a different model. And no, not all of the parts are made in the UK.
http://www.xeforums.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=29420 -
-25 in Moscow today. That's bloody cold even for them! That's past the point where the engines on the grit lorries don't start, city grinds to a completely halt for a few days.rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?Ishmael_Z said:
Oh. purlease. From your link:rottenborough said:
It seems Hitler derided experts , who claimed to know about the Russian winter and didn't believe weather forecasters:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/5907564/Second-World-War-Frozen-to-death-by-the-Fuhrer.html
"Prior to Operation Barbarossa, the Nazis could have been certain that their invasion of Russia, which began on June 22, 1941, was in for a very cold winter.
It was a matter of simple statistical analysis, the kind at which Adolf Hitler's High Command was supposed to excel. But the German commissariat had hubristically not transported anything like enough woollen hats, gloves, long johns and overcoats to Russia."
We have all the supercomputers anyone could ask for dedicated to weather forecasting, and forecasts are now reliable to about 4 days out (a massive achievement, even if it doesn't sound like one, because forecasting anything is really, really difficult. So knowing anything by "simple statistical analysis" six months plus preparation time in advance is impossible now, never mind then.
What you have to realise is that expertise on any substantial question is always tentative. Like anyone with a PhD I am or have been the world's leading expert on one particularly abstruse and uninteresting topic, but I wouldn't bet the farm either on my judgment or on the consensus judgment of me plus the next 5 closest experts on the subject. And that's just consensus on the facts: consensus on a forecast (of anything) has so little value it is hardly worth attempting. Look at all the expertise poured out by (genuine) experts on steeplechasing on the National in the run up to Aintree. The result must be so clear before the race starts that there is hardly any point in running it - true or false? And if macro-economic forecasting is so easy, where are the experts' Lear jets? Banging on about Gove when he was essentially right is like repeating all those jolly funny gags about the cowardice of the French in staying out of Iraq.0 -
In your case I was thinking more of your legendary arguments about the impartiality of the bbc.SouthamObserver said:
I am struggling to see how pointing out that our economy is doing well inside the Single Market is hardly dancing on the head of a pin. It is a statement of fact.Floater said:
Scott joining Southam as being champion of dancing on the head of a pin.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
BTW - it wasn't just those two (Cameron / Osborne) making the claims - I am pretty sure Scott knows all this but unfortunately that's not on his narrative.
0 -
Doesn't that enable negative gearing ?rcs1000 said:
Mortgage interest tax relief would be my preferred stimulus measure.Ishmael_Z said:
How does Germany lowering its excessively high savings rate work? I thought interest rates were zero or negative there. Pushing on a string?rcs1000 said:
While daodao is excessively pessimistic, the view that - as the creditor nation - it is the EU that is the only loser from Hard Brexit is fundamentally misguided. Germany can respond to lower external demand by increasing internal demand: i.e., lowering its excessively high savings rate and letting Germans be the ones to drive around in new Mercedes rather than Brits. We, on the other hand, have no such safety net.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the EU loses 100 billion of trade.daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
Which is leading to asset bubbles in Melbourne and Sydney ?0 -
My guess at the odds:TheScreamingEagles said:Should he be calling it the Great Wall ?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/817329823374831617
Mexico to pay in full during Trump's first term: 50/1
Mexico to make some contribution: 2/1
Mexico to make no contribution: 2/50 -
Brexit hasn't created the problem with the UK economy, but it will expose the UK to the consequences of its parlous economic situation by putting up trading barriers and by discouraging overseas investors who have hitherto been willing to lend money to the UK.TOPPING said:
Should be sung from the hilltops.rcs1000 said:
This is not about Brexit. This is about the UK economy being fundamentally unbalanced.Luckyguy1983 said:That would ease the pain for their car companies, but not result in any gain for their economy would it? Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Remainers seem to be coming back to the fact that Brexit will fail because the underlying British economy is indepted, weak and only floating along on a bubble of misplaced trust - exactly. I don't want that any more, because in our out of the EU, it would have failed at some point. Better these things are faced up to now, and without the financial drain and increasing imposition of harmonisation that the EU represents.
Not to hijack your post, but many Brexiters think Brexit can solve all such domestic problems.0 -
The other big advantage is that people have still been splashing the cash and sticking stuff on their credit cards. As ever, British consumers are letting nothing get in the way of their shopping. That may change this year if inflation does creep back. And we may want to think very carefully about interest rate rises. Inflation combined with higher mortgage costs could be a pretty serious double-whammy.OldKingCole said:
The big advantage that we seem to have post-Brexit-vote is that our currency is 10-15% devalued against others. Surely that means exports are doing well and the costs of imported raw materials haven’t worked through yet. It’s also incredibly cheap to borrow money!SouthamObserver said:
I am struggling to see how pointing out that our economy is doing well inside the Single Market is hardly dancing on the head of a pin. It is a statement of fact.Floater said:
Scott joining Southam as being champion of dancing on the head of a pin.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
BTW - it wasn't just those two (Cameron / Osborne) making the claims - I am pretty sure Scott knows all this but unfortunately that's not on his narrative.
Edited for FFS
0 -
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.0 -
They were forecasts based on a false premise - that we would do as the PM said we would do and trigger A50 as soon as Leave won.TOPPING said:
The forecasts (from NIESR IIRC) were not lies. They were forecasts. Could they have been avoided? Well we shall see. Could they be tied down to any particular short-term period, such as "immediately after the actual vote?" not sure either, hence the BoE's pre-emptive move which seemed to have kept us shopping.SouthamObserver said:
Yes - they lied to voters. The Tories on both sides of the referendum campaign spent a lot of time doing that.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
The bloke on the radio this morning from Cambridge Research seemed to think that we can avoid any negative impact from leaving the single market. Well he is head of that unit and I am a PB poster so I'm sure there is some substance to his views; I'll take a (relatively less well-informed) look. It seems strange but of course welcome if that is the case.
0 -
The shops in Frankfurt and Munich have been fine - helpful assistants, chatty without being tiresomely pushy. Perhaps it depends what one wants - the American hi-I'm-Cindy-here-to-help-you style irritates me. Or on being willing to talk German?MaxPB said:
I went shopping in a German border town, Lörrach, and they were pretty friendly there but I guess they are catering for rich Swiss consumers so they have to be.matt said:
If you've been in German shops you'd understand why. Customer service is, to put it politely, lacking.
Where do people think the most helpful and friendly assistants tend to be found? Venice was pretty good recently - I remember a girl selling me a shirt who was quite openly thrilled that she'd guessed the size right. Britain is reasonably OK now, after being pretty bad in living memory.0 -
Hmm. As was pointed out upthread, a month or six isn't really going to make a big difference when the forecast was out to 2030.SouthamObserver said:
They were forecasts based on a false premise - that we would do as the PM said we would do and trigger A50 as soon as Leave won.TOPPING said:
The forecasts (from NIESR IIRC) were not lies. They were forecasts. Could they have been avoided? Well we shall see. Could they be tied down to any particular short-term period, such as "immediately after the actual vote?" not sure either, hence the BoE's pre-emptive move which seemed to have kept us shopping.SouthamObserver said:
Yes - they lied to voters. The Tories on both sides of the referendum campaign spent a lot of time doing that.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
The bloke on the radio this morning from Cambridge Research seemed to think that we can avoid any negative impact from leaving the single market. Well he is head of that unit and I am a PB poster so I'm sure there is some substance to his views; I'll take a (relatively less well-informed) look. It seems strange but of course welcome if that is the case.0 -
You're off by a factor of 10 on the barge conversions BTW, there were about 2500 thousand barges stripped from logistic use to prep for the invasion.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes no, but the original hypothesis was that the Germans 'built' an invasion fleet, part of an operation that was larger than Barbarossa in terms of 'men, materials, cost and prep effort', and that delayed the implementation of said Barbarossa.Alistair said:
Every barge fitted out for Sealion was a barge not performing it's original duty of logistics. That translates into tons of raw materials being delayed to where they should go or needing alternate transportation.Theuniondivvie said:
That doesn't really answer my question re. Barbarossa.
In any case, the Germans didn't build invasion barges so much as steal them. Looking at Wiki, they motorised 200 existing barges with obsolete aircraft engines -
'The Kriegsmarine later used some of the motorized Sea Lion barges for landings on the Russian-held Baltic islands in 1941 and, though most of them were eventually returned to the inland rivers they originally plied, a reserve was kept for military transport duties and for filling out amphibious flotillas.'
This is hardly war effort draining stuff.
Cannae see it myself.0 -
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
ha! You young things, you.MaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.
Yes go with a classic. Something family is perfect. Easy to feel seriously outgunned otherwise.0 -
IIRC, the 1941-2 winter was unusually cold but it's still conflating two different things to say that the Germans couldn't have known that would be the case, and that their preparations for winter were adequate given what they did know, which they obviously weren't (though had they done those preparations, they might well still have come undone given the exceptional nature of what they ended up facing, where not just soldiers froze but so did machinery, recoil liquids, lubricants and so on).rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?Ishmael_Z said:
Oh. purlease. From your link:rottenborough said:
It seems Hitler derided experts , who claimed to know about the Russian winter and didn't believe weather forecasters:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/5907564/Second-World-War-Frozen-to-death-by-the-Fuhrer.html
"Prior to Operation Barbarossa, the Nazis could have been certain that their invasion of Russia, which began on June 22, 1941, was in for a very cold winter.
It was a matter of simple statistical analysis, the kind at which Adolf Hitler's High Command was supposed to excel. But the German commissariat had hubristically not transported anything like enough woollen hats, gloves, long johns and overcoats to Russia."
We have all the supercomputers anyone could ask for dedicated to weather forecasting, and forecasts are now reliable to about 4 days out (a massive achievement, even if it doesn't sound like one, because forecasting anything is really, really difficult. So knowing anything by "simple statistical analysis" six months plus preparation time in advance is impossible now, never mind then.
What you have to realise is that expertise on any substantial question is always tentative. Like anyone with a PhD I am or have been the world's leading expert on one particularly abstruse and uninteresting topic, but I wouldn't bet the farm either on my judgment or on the consensus judgment of me plus the next 5 closest experts on the subject. And that's just consensus on the facts: consensus on a forecast (of anything) has so little value it is hardly worth attempting. Look at all the expertise poured out by (genuine) experts on steeplechasing on the National in the run up to Aintree. The result must be so clear before the race starts that there is hardly any point in running it - true or false? And if macro-economic forecasting is so easy, where are the experts' Lear jets? Banging on about Gove when he was essentially right is like repeating all those jolly funny gags about the cowardice of the French in staying out of Iraq.0 -
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.
0 -
Guido's picture .....Floater said:just for starters
http://order-order.com/2016/09/05/services-pmi-strong/
.....and the bigger picture
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1
0 -
1941 was particularly cold, but yes, clearly the Germans should have considered it a reasonable contingency. I suspect the real problem is that they had one of those "We do not contemplate failure" cultures, in which it risks your career (and in that case life itself) to pipe up and say "Um, what if this takes longer than we expect and conditions turn out unfavourable?"rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?0 -
I was thinking of getting an Omega Speedmaster because I like the look of it but then I thought better of it because I do like the Rolex and I'd have no use for two watches. I barely wear this one.TOPPING said:
ha! You young things, you.MaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.
Yes go with a classic. Something family is perfect. Easy to feel seriously outgunned otherwise.0 -
Can you link to evidence for that claim or is it just wishful thinking on your part.TOPPING said:
Should be sung from the hilltops.rcs1000 said:
This is not about Brexit. This is about the UK economy being fundamentally unbalanced.Luckyguy1983 said:That would ease the pain for their car companies, but not result in any gain for their economy would it? Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Remainers seem to be coming back to the fact that Brexit will fail because the underlying British economy is indepted, weak and only floating along on a bubble of misplaced trust - exactly. I don't want that any more, because in our out of the EU, it would have failed at some point. Better these things are faced up to now, and without the financial drain and increasing imposition of harmonisation that the EU represents.
Not to hijack your post, but many Brexiters think Brexit can solve all such domestic problems.0 -
I agree. But the forecasts - and the headlines they generated - were made based on a specific assumption. Osborne was talking about an emergency budget in 2016.TOPPING said:
Hmm. As was pointed out upthread, a month or six isn't really going to make a big difference when the forecast was out to 2030.SouthamObserver said:
They were forecasts based on a false premise - that we would do as the PM said we would do and trigger A50 as soon as Leave won.TOPPING said:
The forecasts (from NIESR IIRC) were not lies. They were forecasts. Could they have been avoided? Well we shall see. Could they be tied down to any particular short-term period, such as "immediately after the actual vote?" not sure either, hence the BoE's pre-emptive move which seemed to have kept us shopping.SouthamObserver said:
Yes - they lied to voters. The Tories on both sides of the referendum campaign spent a lot of time doing that.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
The bloke on the radio this morning from Cambridge Research seemed to think that we can avoid any negative impact from leaving the single market. Well he is head of that unit and I am a PB poster so I'm sure there is some substance to his views; I'll take a (relatively less well-informed) look. It seems strange but of course welcome if that is the case.0 -
I do too! Though that's probably because I only wear the watch for formal occasions, job interviews and meetings with senior management. Otherwise my wrist is empty.Sandpit said:
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
Mr. 1000 (or others), any word on why MikeK was banned/any prospect of it being lifted?0
-
I have always found Germans to be very polite and happy to serve, but then I am one of the few people who has never really encountered any trouble in France, so maybe I am just lucky. That said, I suspect that a lot of what we consider to be rudeness might be down to language and cultural differences.NickPalmer said:
The shops in Frankfurt and Munich have been fine - helpful assistants, chatty without being tiresomely pushy. Perhaps it depends what one wants - the American hi-I'm-Cindy-here-to-help-you style irritates me. Or on being willing to talk German?MaxPB said:
I went shopping in a German border town, Lörrach, and they were pretty friendly there but I guess they are catering for rich Swiss consumers so they have to be.matt said:
If you've been in German shops you'd understand why. Customer service is, to put it politely, lacking.
Where do people think the most helpful and friendly assistants tend to be found? Venice was pretty good recently - I remember a girl selling me a shirt who was quite openly thrilled that she'd guessed the size right. Britain is reasonably OK now, after being pretty bad in living memory.
0 -
But it was precisely your judgment several posts ago, and would be presumably be the judgment of any historian that you could link to proposing that Sealion was 'by far the largest German operation of WW2 in terms of men, materials, cost and prep effort. Larger even than Barabarossa', and that 'the drain it imposed upon the Germans was a significant reason for the delay in launching Barbarossa a year later'.Patrick said:This is hardly war effort draining stuff.
Well....the logistical scale of Sealion vs Barbarossa is not my judgment
However let's not continue, I can see this is getting tediously circular.0 -
Maybe the zombie defence budget includes trebuchets - with which to launch themselves over the walls?MarqueeMark said:
There's clearly a need in the defence budget for zombie-eating octo-lemurs - just in case. If only we knew of a source for such defenders of the realm....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, nonsense. Castle Morris Dancer is impervious to zombies.
0 -
Very interesting indeed - but I believe 'Eagle Day' - 'Adlertag' - was August 13th 1940.Patrick said:
I think Keith Park was possibly the finest general we had in WW2. He fought the BoB as a STRATEGIC thing. SunZi: 'Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat'.foxinsoxuk said:
Bungay's book on the Battle of Britain is also very interesting. He makes a powerful case that we won by superior planning via a flexible command system, while the Luftwaffe relied on talented mavericks who didn't co-ordinate or agree strategic objectives.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, sounds interesting. Most of the military-to-management books appear to be Chinese (typically Sun Tzu, but also Sun Bin, Zhuge Liang, Liu Ji and Sima Yi).
However, I agree with Mr. CD13. If we label anything from the EU as 'essential', they'll simply whack an enormous price tag on it.
The strategy was to survive and still be around to screw up a potential German invasion (Operation Sealion). He very very deliberately only fed in enough opposition each day to frustrate German raids but without letting RAF casualty rates get too high. He was under tremendous pressure from some of his more gung-ho colleagues (such as Leigh-Mallory) to put more planes in the air and make a big fight of it - which would have led to an early exit and defeat. The Germans on the other hand played their strategy abysmally. Didn't do nearly enough damage to radar stations (which made the RAF effort massively more efficient). Bombed London before they'd killed the RAF. They thought they were getting ahead when they weren't. They were fighting tactically.
It all came to a head on Sep 15th 1940 'Eagle Day'. Goering wanted a final push to deliver a coup de grace to the RAF. Park sensed this and for the first time in nearly 3 months of bitter attritional fighting ordered an all out effort - even requesting additional squadrons from outside 11 Group - flooding the skies of southern England with fighters for the first time. The RAF did a lot of material damage that day, but not as much as you might expect. Much more importantly, they inflicted a crushing psychological blow to the Luftwaffe which simply could not believe the vast numbers of RAF fighters in the sky that day. That day the Luftwaffe realised it could not win, their own casualty rates becoming critical. Game set and match to Park. A brilliant and patient strategist who was also top notch at tactics.0 -
I've got a Tag Carrera ltd edition, it's nice enough that people notice it, without constantly worrying about it. I'll guess there won't be many bare wrists at a Swiss bank.MaxPB said:
I do too! Though that's probably because I only wear the watch for formal occasions, job interviews and meetings with senior management. Otherwise my wrist is empty.Sandpit said:
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
As opposed to the entirely disinterested arguments of those on the left and right who claim that it is biased, of course :-DFloater said:
In your case I was thinking more of your legendary arguments about the impartiality of the bbc.SouthamObserver said:
I am struggling to see how pointing out that our economy is doing well inside the Single Market is hardly dancing on the head of a pin. It is a statement of fact.Floater said:
Scott joining Southam as being champion of dancing on the head of a pin.isam said:
So Cameron and Osborne based their doom laden forecasts on scenarios that they knew could be avoided?Scott_P said:
Link?Floater said:you know that's not true and the evidence is there for all to see.
The evidence, such as it exists, points to all forecasts being based on an immediate Article 50 trigger.
Which, as you know, didn't happen
BTW - it wasn't just those two (Cameron / Osborne) making the claims - I am pretty sure Scott knows all this but unfortunately that's not on his narrative.
0 -
It's a discussion board. I'm not linking to anything. Read some of the comments of some people on here for "evidence" (m'lud).felix said:
Can you link to evidence for that claim or is it just wishful thinking on your part.TOPPING said:
Should be sung from the hilltops.rcs1000 said:
This is not about Brexit. This is about the UK economy being fundamentally unbalanced.Luckyguy1983 said:That would ease the pain for their car companies, but not result in any gain for their economy would it? Meanwhile British consumers can buy a Jaguar made in Solihull if they so wish.
Remainers seem to be coming back to the fact that Brexit will fail because the underlying British economy is indepted, weak and only floating along on a bubble of misplaced trust - exactly. I don't want that any more, because in our out of the EU, it would have failed at some point. Better these things are faced up to now, and without the financial drain and increasing imposition of harmonisation that the EU represents.
Not to hijack your post, but many Brexiters think Brexit can solve all such domestic problems.0 -
I have never banned anyone, although I do frequently unban. Ask someone else.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000 (or others), any word on why MikeK was banned/any prospect of it being lifted?
0 -
Can I just say: thanks Patrick for some awesome posts today.0
-
.
I'm an Omega fan - Constellation - used to like Longines. Never keen on Rolex - too big.Sandpit said:
I've got a Tag Carrera ltd edition, it's nice enough that people notice it, without constantly worrying about it. I'll guess there won't be many bare wrists at a Swiss bank.MaxPB said:
I do too! Though that's probably because I only wear the watch for formal occasions, job interviews and meetings with senior management. Otherwise my wrist is empty.Sandpit said:
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
Yes, my uncle (a watchmaker) suggested I get a Tissot with a leather strap for everyday wear. It's a nice understated watch, the automatic ones are only £400-500 as well so it won't break the bank.Sandpit said:
I've got a Tag Carrera ltd edition, it's nice enough that people notice it, without constantly worrying about it. I'll guess there won't be many bare wrists at a Swiss bank.MaxPB said:
I do too! Though that's probably because I only wear the watch for formal occasions, job interviews and meetings with senior management. Otherwise my wrist is empty.Sandpit said:
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
Intereresting:
http://rebeccataylormep.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/radical-idea-on-eu-free-movement-use.html?m=1
Regardless of your views on Brexit, read the bottom.0 -
I think that cultural factors are very important in retail. The American style of greeting the customer, can grate with Britons, and hard selling actively encourages departure.SouthamObserver said:
I have always found Germans to be very polite and happy to serve, but then I am one of the few people who has never really encountered any trouble in France, so maybe I am just lucky. That said, I suspect that a lot of what we consider to be rudeness might be down to language and cultural differences.NickPalmer said:
The shops in Frankfurt and Munich have been fine - helpful assistants, chatty without being tiresomely pushy. Perhaps it depends what one wants - the American hi-I'm-Cindy-here-to-help-you style irritates me. Or on being willing to talk German?MaxPB said:
I went shopping in a German border town, Lörrach, and they were pretty friendly there but I guess they are catering for rich Swiss consumers so they have to be.matt said:
If you've been in German shops you'd understand why. Customer service is, to put it politely, lacking.
Where do people think the most helpful and friendly assistants tend to be found? Venice was pretty good recently - I remember a girl selling me a shirt who was quite openly thrilled that she'd guessed the size right. Britain is reasonably OK now, after being pretty bad in living memory.
German retail experience is typified by Lidl/Aldi. Reasonable product and good prices, efficient checkout but not much more. Limited ranges and often looks like a jumble sale. It seems Britons are increasingly OK with it, and indeed prefer it.
In terms of expectation, I have been told that there is no word for please in Chinese. Probably a fiction but it certainly appears true! African manners are often very formal and stylised.0 -
Delaying for six weeks while the Germans bailed out Italy in the Balkans didn't help matters either.NickPalmer said:
1941 was particularly cold, but yes, clearly the Germans should have considered it a reasonable contingency. I suspect the real problem is that they had one of those "We do not contemplate failure" cultures, in which it risks your career (and in that case life itself) to pipe up and say "Um, what if this takes longer than we expect and conditions turn out unfavourable?"rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?
That said, the German army could easily have stocked winter supplies without overtly appearing to contemplate failure (or not complete success), under the perfectly reasonable argument that they'd be necessary for the occupying forces after victory. It's not as if they'd have gone home as soon as Stalin threw in the towel.0 -
Only 4-500 quid ... jeeezMaxPB said:
Yes, my uncle (a watchmaker) suggested I get a Tissot with a leather strap for everyday wear. It's a nice understated watch, the automatic ones are only £400-500 as well so it won't break the bank.Sandpit said:
I've got a Tag Carrera ltd edition, it's nice enough that people notice it, without constantly worrying about it. I'll guess there won't be many bare wrists at a Swiss bank.MaxPB said:
I do too! Though that's probably because I only wear the watch for formal occasions, job interviews and meetings with senior management. Otherwise my wrist is empty.Sandpit said:
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
Having read Wiki, I'm aware of how many (mostly unpowered) barges there were.Alistair said:
You're off by a factor of 10 on the barge conversions BTW, there were about 2500 thousand barges stripped from logistic use to prep for the invasion.Theuniondivvie said:
Mebbes aye, mebbes no, but the original hypothesis was that the Germans 'built' an invasion fleet, part of an operation that was larger than Barbarossa in terms of 'men, materials, cost and prep effort', and that delayed the implementation of said Barbarossa.Alistair said:
Every barge fitted out for Sealion was a barge not performing it's original duty of logistics. That translates into tons of raw materials being delayed to where they should go or needing alternate transportation.Theuniondivvie said:
That doesn't really answer my question re. Barbarossa.
In any case, the Germans didn't build invasion barges so much as steal them. Looking at Wiki, they motorised 200 existing barges with obsolete aircraft engines -
'The Kriegsmarine later used some of the motorized Sea Lion barges for landings on the Russian-held Baltic islands in 1941 and, though most of them were eventually returned to the inland rivers they originally plied, a reserve was kept for military transport duties and for filling out amphibious flotillas.'
This is hardly war effort draining stuff.
Cannae see it myself.
I was referring to the idea that Germany poured resources into building a huge number of transport barges powered with aircraft engines. They didn't build new barges, and converted 200 with the addition of obsolete surplus engines.0 -
In context of an automatic Swiss watch it is the correct usage of the word "only"!SquareRoot said:
Only 4-500 quid ... jeeezMaxPB said:
Yes, my uncle (a watchmaker) suggested I get a Tissot with a leather strap for everyday wear. It's a nice understated watch, the automatic ones are only £400-500 as well so it won't break the bank.Sandpit said:
I've got a Tag Carrera ltd edition, it's nice enough that people notice it, without constantly worrying about it. I'll guess there won't be many bare wrists at a Swiss bank.MaxPB said:
I do too! Though that's probably because I only wear the watch for formal occasions, job interviews and meetings with senior management. Otherwise my wrist is empty.Sandpit said:
That's a nice watch. It's often said in this part of the world that everyone has a Swiss watch on his wrist, yet for some reason looks at his phone when asked the timeMaxPB said:
I already have funny pointed shoes and slim fit grey suits!TOPPING said:
Please don't start wearing those continental tight suits in light grey or brown and funny pointed shoes.MaxPB said:I've just done my bit for the economy and bought a bunch of new shirts and two pairs of shoes. I don't trust Swiss clothes shops.
I imagine your watch envy will increase within a month or two, that said.
My dad also gave me his Rolex Oyster Perpetual for my 21st birthday, so hopefully not too much envy.0 -
I don't own any watches, but I do lend money against them as pawn 0
-
Gosh...something I agree with Plato about. I am an Omega man...Seamasters.....
Maybe in a years time or so, Plato and I agree will agree politically that it was ludicrous that someone with Trump's temperament, personality disorder, outlook should ever have come close to POTUS.
I blame GOP for not having a system for vetting out bat shit crazy candidates. Unlike Hitler which the establishment thought it could control, GOP knew Trump was off the radar uncontrollable at the start.
The only satisfaction that I will get from Trump's presidency is that he fucking trashes the Trump brand so catastrophically that anyone with any connection to it will be vilified. His family should have stopped him.0 -
The implicit claim in "simple statistical analysis, the kind at which Adolf Hitler's High Command was supposed to excel" is that some sort of expertise was involved and that claim is one you ran with when you said "It seems Hitler derided experts , who claimed to know about the Russian winter and didn't believe weather forecasters." It doesn't, as you now rightly say, take expertise to know that Russian winters are cold. Your point about Hitler and experts therefore completely falls apart.rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?Ishmael_Z said:
Oh. purlease. From your link:rottenborough said:
It seems Hitler derided experts , who claimed to know about the Russian winter and didn't believe weather forecasters:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/britain-at-war/5907564/Second-World-War-Frozen-to-death-by-the-Fuhrer.html
"Prior to Operation Barbarossa, the Nazis could have been certain that their invasion of Russia, which began on June 22, 1941, was in for a very cold winter.
It was a matter of simple statistical analysis, the kind at which Adolf Hitler's High Command was supposed to excel. But the German commissariat had hubristically not transported anything like enough woollen hats, gloves, long johns and overcoats to Russia."
We have all the supercomputers anyone could ask for dedicated to weather forecasting, and forecasts are now reliable to about 4 days out (a massive achievement, even if it doesn't sound like one, because forecasting anything is really, really difficult. So knowing anything by "simple statistical analysis" six months plus preparation time in advance is impossible now, never mind then.
What you have to realise is that expertise on any substantial question is always tentative. Like anyone with a PhD I am or have been the world's leading expert on one particularly abstruse and uninteresting topic, but I wouldn't bet the farm either on my judgment or on the consensus judgment of me plus the next 5 closest experts on the subject. And that's just consensus on the facts: consensus on a forecast (of anything) has so little value it is hardly worth attempting. Look at all the expertise poured out by (genuine) experts on steeplechasing on the National in the run up to Aintree. The result must be so clear before the race starts that there is hardly any point in running it - true or false? And if macro-economic forecasting is so easy, where are the experts' Lear jets? Banging on about Gove when he was essentially right is like repeating all those jolly funny gags about the cowardice of the French in staying out of Iraq.0 -
Nothing remotely radical about that. Nor does it give a country the sort of control she thinks it does.Pulpstar said:Intereresting:
http://rebeccataylormep.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/radical-idea-on-eu-free-movement-use.html?m=1
Regardless of your views on Brexit, read the bottom.
For all the endless talk of Free Movement no-one has yet articulated whether what is wanted:-
1. Control of immigration from the EU.
2. Reduction of immigration from the EU.
3. The ability to discriminate against EU citizens - i.e. to give priority to British citizens - in relation to matters such as benefits/welfare/access to health and schools etc.
These are not the same and they imply different policies. It might be helpful if someone, possibly even in government, were to say which of these they want.
0 -
Barbarossa would have worked had the Soviet Union just collapsed following its launch, as the Germans expected it to.david_herdson said:
Delaying for six weeks while the Germans bailed out Italy in the Balkans didn't help matters either.NickPalmer said:
1941 was particularly cold, but yes, clearly the Germans should have considered it a reasonable contingency. I suspect the real problem is that they had one of those "We do not contemplate failure" cultures, in which it risks your career (and in that case life itself) to pipe up and say "Um, what if this takes longer than we expect and conditions turn out unfavourable?"rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?
That said, the German army could easily have stocked winter supplies without overtly appearing to contemplate failure (or not complete success), under the perfectly reasonable argument that they'd be necessary for the occupying forces after victory. It's not as if they'd have gone home as soon as Stalin threw in the towel.
But it didn't, and the Wehrmacht was neither large enough, nor mechanised enough, to win a protracted conflict despite its professionalism and tactical skill.
And neither was the German economy mobilised for total war either.0 -
Not unless he wants a copyright war with China. (Incidentally you can now buy in this country incredibly cheap and useless Chinese pickups branded Great Wall).TheScreamingEagles said:Should he be calling it the Great Wall ?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/817329823374831617
I hadn't realised he thought "media" was singular. He would never have been elected if that had come out during the campaign.0 -
Isn't that a tautology?Casino_Royale said:Barbarossa would have worked had the Soviet Union just collapsed following its launch, as the Germans expected it to.
0 -
I haven't worn a watch in years. After a bit you become skilled in working out how much time has passed. And most of the time you don't need to know the time to any great degree of accuracy. And when you do there are plenty of clocks around.
I do have though a beautiful 19th century wall clock which chimes on the hour and half hour. I wind it up with a key every weekend. The chimes are beautiful: musical and light so I love hearing them.0 -
Yes but there are alot of levers and methods we could have used such as the below which we simply haven't.Cyclefree said:
Nothing remotely radical about that. Nor does it give a country the sort of control she thinks it does.Pulpstar said:Intereresting:
http://rebeccataylormep.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/radical-idea-on-eu-free-movement-use.html?m=1
Regardless of your views on Brexit, read the bottom.
For all the endless talk of Free Movement no-one has yet articulated whether what is wanted:-
1. Control of immigration from the EU.
2. Reduction of immigration from the EU.
3. The ability to discriminate against EU citizens - i.e. to give priority to British citizens - in relation to matters such as benefits/welfare/access to health and schools etc.
These are not the same and they imply different policies. It might be helpful if someone, possibly even in government, were to say which of these they want.
Does any other country in europe have our tax credit, housing benefit and NHS systems that do such a great job of encouraging immigration 'below the marginal level' ?
What a sorry story it is that Belgium has superior systems to us that discourage net non-beneficial migration.
Those 3 measures aren't the whole story of course but they would have been a step in the right direction.0 -
The German government did not adopt a war economy until 1942, and while equipment was good it was over complex, too many competing designs and hard to maintain. It was Speer who ramped up and standardised production, which for tanks and planes peaked in late 44 despite the massive allied bombing campaign.david_herdson said:
Delaying for six weeks while the Germans bailed out Italy in the Balkans didn't help matters either.NickPalmer said:
1941 was particularly cold, but yes, clearly the Germans should have considered it a reasonable contingency. I suspect the real problem is that they had one of those "We do not contemplate failure" cultures, in which it risks your career (and in that case life itself) to pipe up and say "Um, what if this takes longer than we expect and conditions turn out unfavourable?"rottenborough said:
Eh? When has it not been very cold in winter in Russia?
That said, the German army could easily have stocked winter supplies without overtly appearing to contemplate failure (or not complete success), under the perfectly reasonable argument that they'd be necessary for the occupying forces after victory. It's not as if they'd have gone home as soon as Stalin threw in the towel.
The British were on a war economy from the start, so we ended the Battle of Britain with more planes than we started with, while the Luftwaffe was heavily depleted. Blitzkrieg was defeated by the attrition and industrial war, both in the Battle of Britain and in Barbarossa.
The other factor was human. The Germans started the war with many skilled pilots and tank commanders, but the casualties in these technical areas were particularly heavy and difficult to replace, in both East and West.
The Nazis gambled on a knock out blow. Both the British Empire and USSR prevailed by remaining standing despite major blows, and allowing their opponent to be exhausted. Much the same is how the Yanks prevailed in the Pacific.
The Tortoise and the Hare writ very large.0 -
Pulpstar said:
Intereresting:
http://rebeccataylormep.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/radical-idea-on-eu-free-movement-use.html?m=1
Regardless of your views on Brexit, read the bottom.
Gosh...there is a quote button back. Well done for pulling out that article.
It's the same in Italy too, well sort of.
The only thing I can think of why the UK didn't implement these kind of processes for residency is that it couldn't be bothered with dealing with the complexity of it all. Mainland Europe has had a history of facism and totalitarianism so is much better equipped with complex bureaucracies that monitor people.
It's bloody annoying that our inability to get our heads around a half workable vetting procedure for residency has led to Brexit....but I think she's spot on the money.
0 -
Can I ask out of curiosity anyone how people still managed to quote people without having the quote button.0
-
And the other side of that coin is the No to ECJ cry. Does no to ECJ oversight extend to, for example, various areas such as the UPC and other pan-European groups. Will people, Brexiters, be happy to accept ECJ oversight in selected areas as the UK continues its involvement in these initiatives, once we have left the EU? Or will every area currently under the jurisdiction of a European court be deemed an unacceptable infringement of sovereignty (of course the single market being the foremost of those)?Cyclefree said:
Nothing remotely radical about that. Nor does it give a country the sort of control she thinks it does.Pulpstar said:Intereresting:
http://rebeccataylormep.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/radical-idea-on-eu-free-movement-use.html?m=1
Regardless of your views on Brexit, read the bottom.
For all the endless talk of Free Movement no-one has yet articulated whether what is wanted:-
1. Control of immigration from the EU.
2. Reduction of immigration from the EU.
3. The ability to discriminate against EU citizens - i.e. to give priority to British citizens - in relation to matters such as benefits/welfare/access to health and schools etc.
These are not the same and they imply different policies. It might be helpful if someone, possibly even in government, were to say which of these they want.0 -
Or go here: http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.comPulpstar said:
Click the time below your name. Brings you to vanilla, quote button was always there.tyson said:Can I ask out of curiosity anyone how people still managed to quote people without having the quote button.
It also lists posts newest last, rather than first. Takes some getting used to, but when you do, I find it easier to catch up on the threads.0 -
I see from Guido that Andrea Leadsom is fleshing out her already presented departmental plan for Brexit.
http://order-order.com/2017/01/04/brexit-means-bonfire-costly-farming-regulations/
#Justsaying0 -
Incidentally did anyone else here the DUP bod on the airwaves this morning "Its only £25 million outside the budget so no big deal", storm in Arleen Foster's teacup.
Northern Irish horses must be having a tremendously warm winter.
Unbelievable incompetence.0 -
On my laptop the quote button never went anywhere.0
-
Used vanillatyson said:Can I ask out of curiosity anyone how people still managed to quote people without having the quote button.
0 -
Shame Cameron didn't promise this, or anything else he could have promised without reference to the EU, before the vote. This really was a defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. But my feeling is that we would have "implemented" it via the Home Office paying several billion for a computer system which a. wouldn't work and b. would be ignored even if it did.tyson said:Pulpstar said:Intereresting:
http://rebeccataylormep.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/radical-idea-on-eu-free-movement-use.html?m=1
Regardless of your views on Brexit, read the bottom.
Gosh...there is a quote button back. Well done for pulling out that article.
It's the same in Italy too, well sort of.
The only thing I can think of why the UK didn't implement these kind of processes for residency is that it couldn't be bothered with dealing with the complexity of it all. Mainland Europe has had a history of facism and totalitarianism so is much better equipped with complex bureaucracies that monitor people.
It's bloody annoying that our inability to get our heads around a half workable vetting procedure for residency has led to Brexit....but I think she's spot on the money.
The other problemette is that it would involve the govt rowing back on rowing back on the Identity Cards Act 2006. Who would have guessed that Labour offered a priceless opportunity to limit immigration, and the Coalition would shut it down?0 -
Thanks...just in the future.Luckyguy1983 said:
Or go here: http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.comPulpstar said:
Click the time below your name. Brings you to vanilla, quote button was always there.tyson said:Can I ask out of curiosity anyone how people still managed to quote people without having the quote button.
It also lists posts newest last, rather than first. Takes some getting used to, but when you do, I find it easier to catch up on the threads.
Anyway, the lack of a quote button has stopped me making negative, direct responses to Brexit folk, and to people who like to post cartoon faces.....(PULPS, serial offender, the gloriously bonkers Sunil et al)
0 -
56% of UK exports now go outside the EU, I don't think so (though most likely it will be neither hard nor soft Brexit but a fudge in between)daodao said:The position of the UK vs the EU27 is like a phoney war at present; nothing much has happened. When Hard Brexit occurs (there is no realistic alternative, because the EU will punish the UK, pour encourager les autres), the economy will nose-dive and the currency will will collapse. The UK is living on borrowed money (it has a much higher total foreign debt to GDP ratio than the so called southern European "piggies") and no one will want to invest or deposit funds in the UK once it is "out in the cold". London will become a minor player in financial dealings. That is the price of "sovereignty".
0 -
Probably already posted but the Mirror on Copleand is just gold:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-chiefs-tell-voters-ignore-9570679
Copeland council's Labour group leader Lena Hogg, who voted for Mr Corbyn in his successful leadership campaigns, hoped he would accept nuclear was popular locally. Pro-nukes Mrs Hogg told the Mirror: “We have got it and it's staying and people are quite happy about the fact we have had it since 1952. “It doesn't matter what people feel about it, it's not going anywhere.” Asked about suggestions he could be “sidelined” in the campaign, she added: “I really can't see anybody concentrating on anything that Jeremy Corbyn does or says.”
Local Labour councillor Bill Kirkbride believed Cumbria would be “poverty-stricken” without the nuclear industry. “Provided Jeremy Corbyn doesn't say anything negative we are all right,” he said. “ Labour Party policy regarding nuclear is written in big, luminous letters.” He added: “What Jeremy has to say on the price of cheese – well, silence is golden.”
0 -
This announcement?Luckyguy1983 said:I see from Guido that Andrea Leadsom is fleshing out her already presented departmental plan for Brexit.
http://order-order.com/2017/01/04/brexit-means-bonfire-costly-farming-regulations/
#Justsaying0 -
The Tories are actually 2% higher than the CDU with yougov even on that poll and the Afd are higher than both the LDs and UKIP on 15%TheScreamingEagles said:@AlbertoNardelli: 11 years in office, 1 million refugees later, and still more popular than Theresa May and pretty much every elected leader in Europe
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/8171355336756469760
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
