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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At some stage some of the “will Trump survive” bets will be value
Donald Trump betting odds from @LadPolitics pic.twitter.com/MkiO5evY6G
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Your attitude would have been like Churchill saying in 1939 that he was bored of talking about the Nazis. He'd been putting his case for years and finally he had won the argument! Except that was just the beginning...
Would this be happening if Hillary had won?
Branson for PM.
I think soft Brexit is a non starter that will satisfuy neither faction, and will split the Tories down the middle again. In the unlikely event of the EU27 agreeing it, it will collapse in its own contradictions promptly.
Hard Brexit is the only answer. It is also the default outcome to A50, so nailed on.
I think 12-1 for Trump to have gone is OK - I wouldn't take 1-12 on this, though my only bet here is @rcs1000 suggestion of Trump to stay at 4-6 which looks a good price.
Not sure bad al banging on about bullied government experts is a good idea!
I hope anyone considering betting on his getting "successfully impeached" is aware that no US president has ever been removed from office as a result of being convicted at an impeachment trial.
I propose the following picture of the hurdle for Le Pen winning the presidency, based on the voting in R2 of the 2015 regionals:
* 100% of those who voted FN, plus
* 1 in 6 of those who voted non-FN (who were 72% of the 58% turnout), plus
* 57% of those who abstained but who will vote in the presidential.
If we increase the 57% to 75%, the 1 in 6 changes to 1 in 10.
Is it just money, how a guy who's businesses were $900million down suddenly had money to burn?
Is it that they have compromising information about his leisure activities whilst he was Russia many years ago?
The US has a President who is more interested in keeping his interests with a foreign and hostile state above his own country.
-US intelligence has intercepts of senior Kremlin types expressing their particular views of Trump and his particular position with them. This is not just the Russians congratulating themselves as reported in the Washington Post.
-A 3rd party, ostensibly friendly, intelligence agency was so keen to get what they believed was the compromising Russian material on Trump that they went straight for bribery by letting it be known via whatever channels they had in Russia that they'd be willing to pay a large amount of cash. This was before the election.
Trump is in way over his head, the question is whether the spooks can muster themselves to bring him down. This is a tricky stance to take.
It's only used nowadays by lazy b*stards, by human peacocks whose image of their own practice is very poorly aligned with its real character, and by the highly confused.
That's even when it doesn't come from a former tabloid editor turned government propagandist like Campbell, and even given that it was a Quaker radical who first used the phrase and generally speaking I have a lot of respect for Quaker radicals.
Speak truth to power and they'll probably ignore you, shoot you, or recruit you. That's if you're not already working for them and telling them the kind of truth they like. Then they'll give you a bonus or at least keep on paying you. Save me from the dopy whinging of the "expert", the "intellectual" and the hack writer!
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/817139894921424896
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/817140971121020929
Not forgetting...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/project-fear-brexit-predictions-flawed-partisan-new-study-says/
Predictions by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit vote have been brought into question by a study which says that leaving the European Union will halve net migration, give British workers a pay rise and help to solve the housing crisis.
Despite BrExit.
These geeks and experts you are referring to who are going to make brexit happen dont exist. The foreign office is in crisis. The civil service do not have the capability to deliver brexit the way you are hoping and there is no credible alternative.
The reason is not because they are fifth column remainers but because the civil service dont have the institutional capacity to protect britains interests in this renegotiation. Its a massive problem and noone in government is facing up to it. It wont sort itself out if you just ignore it and hope forthe best.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/project-fear-brexit-predictions-flawed-partisan-new-study-says/
http://www.oldvictheatre.com/whats-on/2017/rosencrantz-and-guildenstern/
FPT: Don wrote a rather similar piece promoting the challenge to Corbyn last year, and later mentioned that he was involved in the campaign himself (for Labour First, an anti-Corbyn group). Labour First is also active in supporting Coyne. Just for transparency, could he let us know if he's still involved?
Personally, I doubt if Coyne has much chance - he's trying to weaponise anti-Corbyn feeling, but taking a view on Corbyn isn't really going to be uppermost in most UNITE voters' minds.But although I'm a member I don't have any particular insight.
Observant F1 fans might also know she is the sister of Joe Saward, a well known motorsport journalist.
Rest in peace.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38526570
You can't logically argue against the existence of absolute truth.
We all mocked @michaelgove for his "experts" comment. Then along came Andy Haldane...
Stocks of humble pie under threat..
Trump has got off to a more remarkable start than any President I can recall (although, strangely, he has not been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize yet). His Presidency will be a roller coaster in the same way as his campaign was with plenty of outrageous things being said and the odd outrageous thing being done but, I think, the results largely surprising on the upside.
Subject to DEATH paying a visit he will survive at least his first term. And DEATH must surely be wanting to put his feet up with a nice cup of tea after the overtime worked in 2016.
& Britain has world’s top economy after Brexit according to the Times.
Humble pie indeed.
"The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon's saying: "I have never had a plan of operations."
Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force."
It's such a fluid situation that it isn't plannable beyond the opening gambit. We'll be fine though.
MikeK has gotten in touch with me to enquire as to the reasoning/situation regarding his ban around Christmas Time. Any clarification would be greatly appreciated.
The highly effective Prussian and later German military worked so well because commanders at all levels were all briefed on the overall objectives and encouraged to act without orders, and indeed against orders, if the situation changed. This is an incredibly flexible and reactive in a battle situation, but does require a high degree of coherence in the commanders and for them all to buy into the same objectives.
I do not believe that this is the case with the Brexiteers. They are acting like the Russians at Tannenberg 1914 rather than the Germans.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01HPVHLHG/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
"The highly effective Prussian and later German military worked so well because commanders at all levels were all briefed on the overall objectives and encouraged to act without orders, and indeed against orders."
I like your simile, however ... they all were fighting on the same side. With some prominent Remainers, they actively seek to disrupt the plans. They may be a small minority but they are well placed.
"but does require a high degree of coherence in the commanders and for them all to buy into the same objectives."
Exactly. The demand for details of the exact plan (whether there is one or not) makes sense if you can trust people with the information and whether making it public is an advantage. I doubt if the German plans in 1940 would have worked so well if it had been trumpeted in advance.
However, I agree with Mr. CD13. If we label anything from the EU as 'essential', they'll simply whack an enormous price tag on it.
[edit] glad to see the "quote" button is back, yeh...
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/05/politics/border-wall-house-republicans-donald-trump-taxpayers/index.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/817071792711942145
To continue the battle analogy that has been running this morning, all of the commanders need the same objective.
The Brexiteers can't agree if we are invading France, Russia or Great Britain. We will likely try all 3, and we know how that story ends...