politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review 2016
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review 2016
Votes cast, change on last time, seats won and change on last time for 2016 Labour 147,049 votes (29% +1% on last time) winning 85 seats (-5 on last time) Conservatives 146,074 votes (29% -2% on last time) winning 97 seats (-33 on last time) Liberal Democrats 76,877 votes (15% +4% on last time) winning 50 seats (+27 on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 46,112 votes (9% -4% on last time) winning 10 seats (-3 on last time) Independent candidates 24,810 votes (5% unchanged on last time) winning 22 seats (+6 on last time) Green Party 23,604 votes (5% -1% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 on last time) Scottish National Party 23,463 votes (5% +3% on last time) winning 8 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 4,133 votes (1% unchanged on last time) winning 5 seats (+3 on last time) Other Parties 11,268 votes (2% -1% on last time) winning 8 seats (+4 on last time) Labour lead of 975 votes (0%) on a swing of 1.5% from Conservative to Labour
Comments
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Many thanks Harry
And first.0 -
It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.0
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Second.
And seconded thanks to Harry.0 -
As part of some research I'm undertaking, there's a strong correlation between the Lib Dem recovery being in seats they previously held but lost to the Tories in 2010 and 2015.AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
A lot of these in the South West heavily voted UKIP and Tory in a lot of European elections and also voted Leave.
Polarisation or something else, the non Scottish council seats next May should be fun to analyse when the results come in.0 -
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
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UKIP fox shot?0
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To me it says that if you're a Remainer surrounded by a majority of Leavers, you're likely to hold that conviction more strongly.AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
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Is this significant? Or is this just a statement that the Lib Dems are dragging themselves slowly out of the abyss.
More a consequence of the depth of the abyss rather than any sign of appeal to Leave voters.0 -
Thanks to Harry for this!0
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FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
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I've always wondered why the EU has to send two representatives, one for the countries, and one for the EU itself?williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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It is my thought as well, there are still Liberals in ex-LD areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
As part of some research I'm undertaking, there's a strong correlation between the Lib Dem recovery being in seats they previously held but lost to the Tories in 2010 and 2015.AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
A lot of these in the South West heavily voted UKIP and Tory in a lot of European elections and also voted Leave.
Polarisation or something else, the non Scottish council seats next May should be fun to analyse when the results come in.
Even though they are a weird flavour of euroskeptic Liberals-Libertarians.0 -
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.0 -
My thoughts.
The Tories are doing on par/slightly sub par with governments that were re-elected 3/4 years later.
Labour are doing worse than oppositions that lost general elections 3/4 years later.0 -
It was this time last year that Rallings & Thrasher published what they think the next NESV should be.
Hopefully we'll get something similar soon.0 -
Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
FPT: Mr. Dawning, there's nothing retrospective about referring to the significant impact of Obama's comment or Cameron's idiotic Little Englander line. Both were castigated at the time by many here (some Remain supporters did think they were either a killer blow or amusing).0 -
No doubt then the Conservatives will therefore on that basis be withdrawing from local elections in future.Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
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Certainly the Obama intervention was seen by the Remain side as the final nail in the Leave coffin.Morris_Dancer said:Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
FPT: Mr. Dawning, there's nothing retrospective about referring to the significant impact of Obama's comment or Cameron's idiotic Little Englander line. Both were castigated at the time by many here (some Remain supporters did think they were either a killer blow or amusing).
Oops.0 -
Serious question. If it is the G7 how come there will be 9 leaders? There are only 4 EU G7 members including the UK.williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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Looks like Mike and Michael Gove are about to have a twitter conversation, this could be epic.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/814444159188733952
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/8145227612174745600 -
Going through the first anecdotal report from Copeland:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/copeland-by-election-preview-jamie-reed-labour-party-2016-12
A growing Corbynite local presence, which results in some tension between them and the old Jamie Reed allies (new people vs old guard stuff).
Lot's of immigration talk and UKIP, lot's of local Hospital talk, plenty of disillusionment with politics.
Not much mentioned about the Tories or LD in local talk.
It's very early days but Labour might keep the seat.0 -
Juncker and Tusk get invited as well to represent the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. If it is the G7 how come there will be 9 leaders? There are only 4 EU G7 members including the UK.williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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In theory both Juncker and Tusk are invited, but the convention is that they take turns. So, the reality is that there are seven country leaders, plus one EU person.Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. If it is the G7 how come there will be 9 leaders? There are only 4 EU G7 members including the UK.williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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(Actually, I'm wrong, there will be nine people there, as President Elect Trump is also invited.)0
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It's not even a country, by the same standards they should have the UN represented as well.williamglenn said:
Juncker and Tusk get invited as well to represent the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. If it is the G7 how come there will be 9 leaders? There are only 4 EU G7 members including the UK.williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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No, just that results should be taken with a pinch of salt.AlastairMeeks said:
No doubt then the Conservatives will therefore on that basis be withdrawing from local elections in future.Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.0 -
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/814469337176309760Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The trouble with council byelections is that a significant number of them either exclude one of the two main and two second-tier parties -- or at least one of those four didn't stand at the previous election. Throw in local factors, local independents and the unequal level of effort that the parties throw at them means that, with the tiny samples involved, the level of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them is effectively zero.0 -
The 4-11 looks big to me here.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like Mike and Michael Gove are about to have a twitter conversation, this could be epic.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/814444159188733952
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/8145227612174745600 -
I can imagine 'Remainers' wanting to register their feelings on the referendum by voting Lib Dem but I can't imagine voters of any persuasion wanting to brave a winter's evening to register support for the cardboard cut-out that is Theresa May.0
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Does the UN have a currency, a central bank, a parliament? I'm not sure what standards you're using to see an analogy between the EU and the UN.Speedy said:
It's not even a country, by the same standards they should have the UN represented as well.williamglenn said:
Juncker and Tusk get invited as well to represent the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. If it is the G7 how come there will be 9 leaders? There are only 4 EU G7 members including the UK.williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
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The real risk:RobD said:
The seating plan will be awkward! Why not just have it when Obama is out just to save all the trouble? Or is it a goodbye sort of thing?rcs1000 said:(Actually, I'm wrong, there will be nine people there, as President Elect Trump is also invited.)
Having Trump and Obama on the same table might result in a bitter argument between them, which others on the table would not want to be involved but will be asked to.0 -
I think it's just a handover. Everyone says how much they enjoyed working with Obama and then there's a photoshoot, and then Trump stays for the actual discussions.Speedy said:
The real risk:RobD said:
The seating plan will be awkward! Why not just have it when Obama is out just to save all the trouble? Or is it a goodbye sort of thing?rcs1000 said:(Actually, I'm wrong, there will be nine people there, as President Elect Trump is also invited.)
Having Trump and Obama on the same table might result in a bitter argument between them, which others on the table would not want to be involved but will be asked to.0 -
Local government is about more than winning seats national elections.AlastairMeeks said:
No doubt then the Conservatives will therefore on that basis be withdrawing from local elections in future.Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
But then I suppose some people have almost forgotten what the latter feels like.
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The UN has an assembly, and more than 100 currencies and central banks.williamglenn said:
Does the UN have a currency, a central bank, a parliament? I'm not sure what standards you're using to see an analogy between the EU and the UN.Speedy said:
It's not even a country, by the same standards they should have the UN represented as well.williamglenn said:
Juncker and Tusk get invited as well to represent the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
Serious question. If it is the G7 how come there will be 9 leaders? There are only 4 EU G7 members including the UK.williamglenn said:FPT:
The G7 summit in May will be fascinating. You'll have 6 EU leaders (inc. Theresa May) + Trump, Abe and Trudeau.Stark_Dawning said:2017 and Article 50 is when the next wave of fun begins. Not long now. Tic toc...
It represents more than 7 billion people, 12 times more than the EU, and 6 times the GDP.
And of course it includes EU members, just like the EU includes EU members (you can see how absurd it is to include the EU as a state entity).0 -
And the levle of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them about the LibDems is the square root of FA.ThreeQuidder said:
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/814469337176309760Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The trouble with council byelections is that a significant number of them either exclude one of the two main and two second-tier parties -- or at least one of those four didn't stand at the previous election. Throw in local factors, local independents and the unequal level of effort that the parties throw at them means that, with the tiny samples involved, the level of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them is effectively zero.
I seem to recall the LibDems having some good results in by elections in the run up to the 2015 election.
Where they ended up with 8 MPs. Local by-election form counted for nothing when it came to some bigger issues than pointing at pot-holes.0 -
There's taking them with a pinch of salt and then there's ignoring them completely because they conflict with your hoped-for world view.RobD said:
No, just that results should be taken with a pinch of salt.AlastairMeeks said:
No doubt then the Conservatives will therefore on that basis be withdrawing from local elections in future.Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The Lib Dems are plainly scraping themselves off the canvas, the Conservatives are proving oddly uninspiring for the most dedicated voters for all their good poll ratings. Why is it so hard for Conservatives to acknowledge those two pretty obvious conclusions from these aggregate results?0 -
I think the Scottish council elections will be fun I analyse too. STV will make clear any Unionism voting block that is available in various geographies for the Westminster elections to come.TheScreamingEagles said:
As part of some research I'm undertaking, there's a strong correlation between the Lib Dem recovery being in seats they previously held but lost to the Tories in 2010 and 2015.AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
A lot of these in the South West heavily voted UKIP and Tory in a lot of European elections and also voted Leave.
Polarisation or something else, the non Scottish council seats next May should be fun to analyse when the results come in.0 -
Unless I'm missing something Obama won't be invited at all. Why would he be?rcs1000 said:
I think it's just a handover. Everyone says how much they enjoyed working with Obama and then there's a photoshoot, and then Trump stays for the actual discussions.Speedy said:
The real risk:RobD said:
The seating plan will be awkward! Why not just have it when Obama is out just to save all the trouble? Or is it a goodbye sort of thing?rcs1000 said:(Actually, I'm wrong, there will be nine people there, as President Elect Trump is also invited.)
Having Trump and Obama on the same table might result in a bitter argument between them, which others on the table would not want to be involved but will be asked to.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_G7_summit0 -
I think that's a reasonable assessment. But I don't think it necessarily points to a Conservative loss at the next election.AlastairMeeks said:
There's taking them with a pinch of salt and then there's ignoring them completely because they conflict with your hoped-for world view.RobD said:
No, just that results should be taken with a pinch of salt.AlastairMeeks said:
No doubt then the Conservatives will therefore on that basis be withdrawing from local elections in future.Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The Lib Dems are plainly scraping themselves off the canvas, the Conservatives are proving oddly uninspiring for the most dedicated voters for all their good poll ratings. Why is it so hard for Conservatives to acknowledge those two pretty obvious conclusions from these aggregate results?0 -
That's a very comprehensive work of record. Thanks Harry for all you do for this site.0
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A possible example of a bet where only one side is offered being bad value?Pulpstar said:
The 4-11 looks big to me here.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like Mike and Michael Gove are about to have a twitter conversation, this could be epic.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/814444159188733952
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/8145227612174745600 -
williamglenn said:
Unless I'm missing something Obama won't be invited at all. Why would he be?rcs1000 said:
I think it's just a handover. Everyone says how much they enjoyed working with Obama and then there's a photoshoot, and then Trump stays for the actual discussions.Speedy said:
The real risk:RobD said:
The seating plan will be awkward! Why not just have it when Obama is out just to save all the trouble? Or is it a goodbye sort of thing?rcs1000 said:(Actually, I'm wrong, there will be nine people there, as President Elect Trump is also invited.)
Having Trump and Obama on the same table might result in a bitter argument between them, which others on the table would not want to be involved but will be asked to.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_G7_summit
Obama will be an ex-president by then, so I agree I don't see why he would be there.
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There was a big decline of the local LD base though not to the same level as the Westminster polls said at the time, the local decline masked the national collapse.MarqueeMark said:
And the levle of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them about the LibDems is the square root of FA.ThreeQuidder said:
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/814469337176309760Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The trouble with council byelections is that a significant number of them either exclude one of the two main and two second-tier parties -- or at least one of those four didn't stand at the previous election. Throw in local factors, local independents and the unequal level of effort that the parties throw at them means that, with the tiny samples involved, the level of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them is effectively zero.
I seem to recall the LibDems having some good results in by elections in the run up to the 2015 election.
Where they ended up with 8 MPs. Local by-election form counted for nothing when it came to some bigger issues than pointing at pot-holes.
Local LD do not have the same notorious reputation than the national LD have, hence the direction is the same but on a different magnitude.0 -
Nomnom 9-5 what you sayin?AlastairMeeks said:
There's taking them with a pinch of salt and then there's ignoring them completely because they conflict with your hoped-for world view.RobD said:
No, just that results should be taken with a pinch of salt.AlastairMeeks said:
No doubt then the Conservatives will therefore on that basis be withdrawing from local elections in future.Mortimer said:
Yet 'parish council' elections seem to bear no real relation to public sentiment expressed in polls or actual general elections.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have lost a net 13 seats in that period (a sixth of those they previously held) and the Lib Dems have won a net 23 seats in that period (more than doubling the number they previously held). Among those that can actually be bothered to go out and vote, the Conservatives are going backwards and the Lib Dems are going smartly forwards.Mortimer said:
On the basis that margin of error movements in tiny sub samples of the electorate mean whatever you want them to?AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The Lib Dems are plainly scraping themselves off the canvas, the Conservatives are proving oddly uninspiring for the most dedicated voters for all their good poll ratings. Why is it so hard for Conservatives to acknowledge those two pretty obvious conclusions from these aggregate results?0 -
The words and body language of Obama and Trump are going to be fascinating to watch at the G7.rcs1000 said:
I think it's just a handover. Everyone says how much they enjoyed working with Obama and then there's a photoshoot, and then Trump stays for the actual discussions.Speedy said:
The real risk:RobD said:
The seating plan will be awkward! Why not just have it when Obama is out just to save all the trouble? Or is it a goodbye sort of thing?rcs1000 said:(Actually, I'm wrong, there will be nine people there, as President Elect Trump is also invited.)
Having Trump and Obama on the same table might result in a bitter argument between them, which others on the table would not want to be involved but will be asked to.
Obama clearly hates Trump with an absolute passion, but is also aware of the need for a smooth transition - as he was given himself by Dubya eight years ago.0 -
Conservative support is a mile wide and an inch deep, ergo their supporters can't be bothered to turn out in the same numbers for locals as they would for a GE. Lib Dems shouldn't get too excited.0
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Hear, hear! re: thanks to Harry!0
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LDs have something relevant to say now. It suits a left of centre party better to be complaining about a perceived injustice than being the bad guys who empower Tories and fleece students, so hardly unexpected.0
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Many thanks to Harry. How much it all means, who can say, but it makes me feel better just having the info.
I still feel sorry for the Inverurie and District on Aberdeenshire chap/chapette - the only LD losing at the moment.0 -
Copeland will be held by Labour in the BE, but if there was a GE tommorow I think the Tories would get it. The odds at the moment look to me like GE odds for the constituency whereas it is a BE.0
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From individual ones I imagine that is the case. Cumulatively, while still not in any way definitive, can be potentially useful perhaps.ThreeQuidder said:
The trouble with council byelections is that a significant number of them either exclude one of the two main and two second-tier parties -- or at least one of those four didn't stand at the previous election. Throw in local factors, local independents and the unequal level of effort that the parties throw at them means that, with the tiny samples involved, the level of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them is effectively zero.
I think that fits quite well. May will be very interesting (the month that is)Speedy said:
It is my thought as well, there are still Liberals in ex-LD areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
As part of some research I'm undertaking, there's a strong correlation between the Lib Dem recovery being in seats they previously held but lost to the Tories in 2010 and 2015.AlastairMeeks said:It is curious that the Lib Dems had previously tallied 11% in both Remain and Leave seats, but the rise in Lib Dem fortunes in Leave seats is sharply higher than in Remain seats (now 20% to 14%). It perhaps says something about the essential nihilism of Leave seats' voters.
A lot of these in the South West heavily voted UKIP and Tory in a lot of European elections and also voted Leave.
Polarisation or something else, the non Scottish council seats next May should be fun to analyse when the results come in.
Even though they are a weird flavour of euroskeptic Liberals-Libertarians.0 -
A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
Ha, ha. Good one. Presumably the minion who penned it had a Christmas bet as to how many cliches he could fit into each paragraph.isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
It was written Tranmere Rovers club Doctor I thinkStark_Dawning said:
Ha, ha. Good one. Presumably the minion who penned it had a Christmas bet as to how many cliches he could fit into each paragraph.isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
Mr. Dawning, lessons must be learnt. This is no time for business as usual, but, at the same time, Rome wasn't built in a day.
We have 24 hours to save the NHS.
Edited extra bit: Anyway, time for me to be off.0 -
People may need to worry about being counter productive with some of these challenges.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKBN14I002?il=0
The poll showed 89 percent of voters in Greece thought their country was heading in the wrong direction. In France the figure was 82 percent, Italy 79 percent and Germany 62 percent.
While EU voters are clearly discontented, there was only a small rise in the number of people who would vote for an exit: 36 percent from 33 percent across the 15 European countries including Britain that were surveyed.
The percentage of people in Germany, France and Belgium who would vote to leave fell from a year ago. Finland and Greece saw an increase in support for leaving, up to 40 percent from 29 percent and to 46 percent from 38 percent respectfully.
"2016 saw the EU foundations severely shaken," said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB International, who did the UK polling.
"What stands out is the overwhelming view from EU citizens that their countries are heading in the wrong direction - most noticeable in France and Greece - which makes fertile ground for right-wing populist parties."
Across Europe, 60 percent said they would like to have fewer migrants and refugees. In Greece, 86 percent wanted fewer while in Italy the figure was 75 percent and in Germany 64 percent.
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The G7 is largely a relic anyway it is the G20 which takes all the key economic decisions now0
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The one parliamentary by election in a Leave area since the referendum saw the LDs come third0
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Desperation...kle4 said:
People may need to worry about being counter productive with some of these challenges.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.
0 -
Speedy Given Labour held Copeland even in 1983 they really ought to hold it but it is a measure of the size of the Tory poll lead that the Tories could win it at the by election0
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Poor Lib Dems!!Scott_P said:0 -
One thing is clear from the Stats. The much vaunted "Labour" WWC vote had already flown the nest before June 23rd and possibly already had by May 2015.
The bulk of the Remain vote comes from Labour.0 -
Fresh Brexit challenge in high court over leaving single market and EEA
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1-1 -
There have been no local and westminster by-elections that corroborate with the opinion polls, not even in their direction.HYUFD said:Speedy Given Labour held Copeland even in 1983 they really ought to hold it but it is a measure of the size of the Tory poll lead that the Tories could win it at the by election
That is why I'm skeptical of opinion polls.
When all the other indicators including local anecdotal evidence say something different than opinion polls, the opinion polls always lose.0 -
I agree to an extent. But at the same time, it is interesting to see our parliamentary democracy tested (I hope not to destruction). The level of scrutiny is probably something most people could do without but IMO there's no harm in asking if it's all kosher, just as a check and balance concerning the system we all live within and I'm sure have mostly taken for granted.kle4 said:
People may need to worry about being counter productive with some of these challenges.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
A shame no preparation was done before the voteTOPPING said:
I agree to an extent. But at the same time, it is interesting to see our parliamentary democracy tested (I hope not to destruction). The level of scrutiny is probably something most people could do without but IMO there's no harm in asking if it's all kosher, just as a check and balance concerning the system we all live within and I'm sure have mostly taken for granted.kle4 said:
People may need to worry about being counter productive with some of these challenges.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.
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The government view that if we leave the EU, we automatically leave the EEA is a lazy one, since there is a separate EEA Act. At the very least, an amendment is needed.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
Yes you'd think that the government's lawyers went through the wording and the premise with a fine-toothed comb. Perhaps they did. We shall see.RobD said:
A shame no preparation was done before the voteTOPPING said:
I agree to an extent. But at the same time, it is interesting to see our parliamentary democracy tested (I hope not to destruction). The level of scrutiny is probably something most people could do without but IMO there's no harm in asking if it's all kosher, just as a check and balance concerning the system we all live within and I'm sure have mostly taken for granted.kle4 said:
People may need to worry about being counter productive with some of these challenges.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
Not that I know of, what was her role?surbiton said:
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
This is definitely a new historical era that we have entered, I'm calling it the Silly Era:
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/814467384547409920
"Boxing legend Don King stood beside President-elect Donald Trump Wednesday to discuss the relationship between Israel and the United States."0 -
She is truly devoid of any emotion.Roger said:I can imagine 'Remainers' wanting to register their feelings on the referendum by voting Lib Dem but I can't imagine voters of any persuasion wanting to brave a winter's evening to register support for the cardboard cut-out that is Theresa May.
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Almost as significant IMO is the fact that in our enlightened, rule-of-law-bound, free, liberal, peaceful, not at all like those nasty jihadis society, the claimants found it necessary to remain anonymous.0
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Disturbing the thoughts of those who need the Guardian to tell them what to think.isam said:
Not that I know of, what was her role?surbiton said:
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
The Don thinks the Donald will cut his taxes - assuming he pays any.Speedy said:This is definitely a new historical era that we have entered, I'm calling it the Silly Era:
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/8144673845474099200 -
Scouring irrelevant quotes from the internet.isam said:
Not that I know of, what was her role?surbiton said:
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
Whatever happened to our dearly missed 619?surbiton said:
Scouring irrelevant quotes from the internet.isam said:
Not that I know of, what was her role?surbiton said:
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b10 -
You did notice the heavies flanking Gina on her court forays?RobD said:
Which I think is a tad silly.TOPPING said:Almost as significant IMO is the fact that in our enlightened, rule-of-law-bound, free, liberal, peaceful, not at all like those nasty jihadis society, the claimants found it necessary to remain anonymous.
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Yeah, and fair enough to her for facing the criticism she got.TOPPING said:
You did notice the heavies flanking Gina on her court forays?RobD said:
Which I think is a tad silly.TOPPING said:Almost as significant IMO is the fact that in our enlightened, rule-of-law-bound, free, liberal, peaceful, not at all like those nasty jihadis society, the claimants found it necessary to remain anonymous.
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DNC contract expired at midnight on 8th November. Quite literally from posting history.RobD said:
Whatever happened to our dearly missed 619?surbiton said:
Scouring irrelevant quotes from the internet.isam said:
Not that I know of, what was her role?surbiton said:
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1
Edit: although apparently lurking a few weeks ago, but maybe that's just a browser cache somewhere.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/6190 -
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No idea.RobD said:
Whatever happened to our dearly missed 619?surbiton said:
Scouring irrelevant quotes from the internet.isam said:
Not that I know of, what was her role?surbiton said:
Have you taken over Plato's role during the holidays or is Plato now only interested in Trump matters ?isam said:A sensible FT article ☺️
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1
He appeared from and vanished into thin air, during the presidential campaign.
I wish that he stayed on PB so that he could dispel the notion that he was simply a paid agent of the Hillary campaign.
Some campaigns usually flood internet forums with paid commentators to try to shift perceived opinions, and the Hillary campaign was no exception as we now know.0 -
Oh Mr HYUFD!!!
"The one parliamentary by election in a Leave area since the referendum saw the LDs come third"
In fact, it saw the Lib Dems rise from fourth to third, and very nearly come second.
You Tory spin doctors must work a bit harder than that!0 -
Surbiton In 1983 the Tories got 43% and Labour 27% and the latest yougov has the Tories on 42% and Labour on 25%0
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It's going to be terribly disappointing for cut and pasters if the Guardian is effectively paywalled. They may have to indulge in independent thought. It really will be open kimono time with respect to brains.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
Not too bothered.. the links are usually interesting!matt said:
It's going to be terribly disappointing for cut and pasters if the Guardian is effectively paywalled. They may have to indulge in independent thought. It really will be open kimono time with respect to brains.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.0 -
Speedy In the Sleaford by election the Tories got one of the lowest swings against an incumbent party in years0
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Rural Lincolnshire is not supposed to have any swing against the Tories if the opinion polls are correct, and they still fell a bit.HYUFD said:Speedy In the Sleaford by election the Tories got one of the lowest swings against an incumbent party in years
That is why I believe that the LD and Labour are a bit higher and the Tories and UKIP a bit lower than the opinion polls say.0 -
Not as silly as them being allowed to remain anonymous.RobD said:
Which I think is a tad silly.TOPPING said:Almost as significant IMO is the fact that in our enlightened, rule-of-law-bound, free, liberal, peaceful, not at all like those nasty jihadis society, the claimants found it necessary to remain anonymous.
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@Speedy I think that's a good flavour of it from a grassroots Labour perspective. The immigration issue is hilarious. Copeland is literally depopulating. It's a huge pressure on local services as a proportion of funding is per capita and certain services need economy of scale. A huge issue in the local NHS ' cuts ' is the inability of WCH is to recruit. Reed himself had a bizzare public spat with the ONS because they published population projections not including the ( still unsigned ) Reactors deal.
In fairness to Reed his real target would have been the local health trust who'll have been living their lips at the population projections. The brutal truth is few communities in the UK would benefit more from a wave of immigration. The problem is they've not had an immigration and so not had the recent benefits. It's depopulating because young talent people leave to move to areas of high immigration.
Yet there they are muttering in a news paper article about Immigration. If you were a health professional reading that would you relocate to work at WCH ? No, you'd think it was Royston Vasey.
There was a fascinating piece in the local press a few weeks ago with a ' Hostage Video ' style photo of a dozen new polish paramedics for the area. Think about that for a moment. Somewhere in the UK in 2016 where polish Immigration is genuinely novel and news worthy enough to justify press coverage. But also the angle the trust's media handlers were pushing. " Things are so bad we pulled off the rare feat of actually attracting some immgrants. Look they are white, speak English and aren't muslamics. "
But apparently immigration is a " concern." It's black comedy.0 -
PClipp Given the Liberals had their worst result in 2015 since 1970 it would be surprising if they did not see at least some increase in voteshare0
