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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review 2016
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review 2016
Votes cast, change on last time, seats won and change on last time for 2016 Labour 147,049 votes (29% +1% on last time) winning 85 seats (-5 on last time) Conservatives 146,074 votes (29% -2% on last time) winning 97 seats (-33 on last time) Liberal Democrats 76,877 votes (15% +4% on last time) winning 50 seats (+27 on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 46,112 votes (9% -4% on last time) winning 10 seats (-3 on last time) Independent candidates 24,810 votes (5% unchanged on last time) winning 22 seats (+6 on last time) Green Party 23,604 votes (5% -1% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 on last time) Scottish National Party 23,463 votes (5% +3% on last time) winning 8 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 4,133 votes (1% unchanged on last time) winning 5 seats (+3 on last time) Other Parties 11,268 votes (2% -1% on last time) winning 8 seats (+4 on last time) Labour lead of 975 votes (0%) on a swing of 1.5% from Conservative to Labour
Comments
And first.
And seconded thanks to Harry.
A lot of these in the South West heavily voted UKIP and Tory in a lot of European elections and also voted Leave.
Polarisation or something else, the non Scottish council seats next May should be fun to analyse when the results come in.
More a consequence of the depth of the abyss rather than any sign of appeal to Leave voters.
Even though they are a weird flavour of euroskeptic Liberals-Libertarians.
They're vehicles for expressing one's own grand theories, because they're generally tremendously influenced by local issues and time of year/correlation with more important elections.
The Tories are doing on par/slightly sub par with governments that were re-elected 3/4 years later.
Labour are doing worse than oppositions that lost general elections 3/4 years later.
Hopefully we'll get something similar soon.
FPT: Mr. Dawning, there's nothing retrospective about referring to the significant impact of Obama's comment or Cameron's idiotic Little Englander line. Both were castigated at the time by many here (some Remain supporters did think they were either a killer blow or amusing).
Oops.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/814444159188733952
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/814522761217474560
http://uk.businessinsider.com/copeland-by-election-preview-jamie-reed-labour-party-2016-12
A growing Corbynite local presence, which results in some tension between them and the old Jamie Reed allies (new people vs old guard stuff).
Lot's of immigration talk and UKIP, lot's of local Hospital talk, plenty of disillusionment with politics.
Not much mentioned about the Tories or LD in local talk.
It's very early days but Labour might keep the seat.
The trouble with council byelections is that a significant number of them either exclude one of the two main and two second-tier parties -- or at least one of those four didn't stand at the previous election. Throw in local factors, local independents and the unequal level of effort that the parties throw at them means that, with the tiny samples involved, the level of meaningful lessons that can be drawn from them is effectively zero.
Having Trump and Obama on the same table might result in a bitter argument between them, which others on the table would not want to be involved but will be asked to.
But then I suppose some people have almost forgotten what the latter feels like.
It represents more than 7 billion people, 12 times more than the EU, and 6 times the GDP.
And of course it includes EU members, just like the EU includes EU members (you can see how absurd it is to include the EU as a state entity).
I seem to recall the LibDems having some good results in by elections in the run up to the 2015 election.
Where they ended up with 8 MPs. Local by-election form counted for nothing when it came to some bigger issues than pointing at pot-holes.
The Lib Dems are plainly scraping themselves off the canvas, the Conservatives are proving oddly uninspiring for the most dedicated voters for all their good poll ratings. Why is it so hard for Conservatives to acknowledge those two pretty obvious conclusions from these aggregate results?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_G7_summit
Obama will be an ex-president by then, so I agree I don't see why he would be there.
Local LD do not have the same notorious reputation than the national LD have, hence the direction is the same but on a different magnitude.
Obama clearly hates Trump with an absolute passion, but is also aware of the need for a smooth transition - as he was given himself by Dubya eight years ago.
I still feel sorry for the Inverurie and District on Aberdeenshire chap/chapette - the only LD losing at the moment.
"With Labour tearing itself apart, and the Lib Dems pigeonholing themselves as a one-issue party for those who refuse to accept the referendum result, the country needs an opposition that is on the side of ordinary people."
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b36b68bc-cce8-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1
A fresh set of legal challenges asserting that the UK will remain within the single market and the European Economic Area after Brexit have been lodged at the high court.
A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.
We have 24 hours to save the NHS.
Edited extra bit: Anyway, time for me to be off.
The poll showed 89 percent of voters in Greece thought their country was heading in the wrong direction. In France the figure was 82 percent, Italy 79 percent and Germany 62 percent.
While EU voters are clearly discontented, there was only a small rise in the number of people who would vote for an exit: 36 percent from 33 percent across the 15 European countries including Britain that were surveyed.
The percentage of people in Germany, France and Belgium who would vote to leave fell from a year ago. Finland and Greece saw an increase in support for leaving, up to 40 percent from 29 percent and to 46 percent from 38 percent respectfully.
"2016 saw the EU foundations severely shaken," said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB International, who did the UK polling.
"What stands out is the overwhelming view from EU citizens that their countries are heading in the wrong direction - most noticeable in France and Greece - which makes fertile ground for right-wing populist parties."
Across Europe, 60 percent said they would like to have fewer migrants and refugees. In Greece, 86 percent wanted fewer while in Italy the figure was 75 percent and in Germany 64 percent.
The bulk of the Remain vote comes from Labour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/29/fresh-brexit-challenge-high-court-leaving-single-market-eea?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
That is why I'm skeptical of opinion polls.
When all the other indicators including local anecdotal evidence say something different than opinion polls, the opinion polls always lose.
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/814467384547409920
"Boxing legend Don King stood beside President-elect Donald Trump Wednesday to discuss the relationship between Israel and the United States."
Edit: although apparently lurking a few weeks ago, but maybe that's just a browser cache somewhere.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/619
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/814549793712328705
https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/814550094120910852
He appeared from and vanished into thin air, during the presidential campaign.
I wish that he stayed on PB so that he could dispel the notion that he was simply a paid agent of the Hillary campaign.
Some campaigns usually flood internet forums with paid commentators to try to shift perceived opinions, and the Hillary campaign was no exception as we now know.
"The one parliamentary by election in a Leave area since the referendum saw the LDs come third"
In fact, it saw the Lib Dems rise from fourth to third, and very nearly come second.
You Tory spin doctors must work a bit harder than that!
That is why I believe that the LD and Labour are a bit higher and the Tories and UKIP a bit lower than the opinion polls say.
In fairness to Reed his real target would have been the local health trust who'll have been living their lips at the population projections. The brutal truth is few communities in the UK would benefit more from a wave of immigration. The problem is they've not had an immigration and so not had the recent benefits. It's depopulating because young talent people leave to move to areas of high immigration.
Yet there they are muttering in a news paper article about Immigration. If you were a health professional reading that would you relocate to work at WCH ? No, you'd think it was Royston Vasey.
There was a fascinating piece in the local press a few weeks ago with a ' Hostage Video ' style photo of a dozen new polish paramedics for the area. Think about that for a moment. Somewhere in the UK in 2016 where polish Immigration is genuinely novel and news worthy enough to justify press coverage. But also the angle the trust's media handlers were pushing. " Things are so bad we pulled off the rare feat of actually attracting some immgrants. Look they are white, speak English and aren't muslamics. "
But apparently immigration is a " concern." It's black comedy.