politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Odds on Osborne as Cameron’s successor tighten as he takes

Tim, you have written hundreds of posts telling us how cr*p Osborne is. I am not an admirer of Osborne although I do not rate him as low as you. So tim, since the big story in these reshuffles are the changes Labour have made, how about giving us your views on the Labour changes?

Oh my word. The weeping and wailing* at school today when we heard Twigg had been sacked. It was like that cheap train ticket ad where everyone goes postal.

(* by 'weeping and wailing' I mean a lot of people were saying 'Oh. Was he shadow ed sec?')

Let's just have a reminder of who Blair is.

He took us to war in Iraq on a very dodgy premise. He wanted us to bomb Syria. He thinks MPs did nothing wrong in the expenses scandal because they are under-paid. He gets paid tens of millions a year to work for various questionable clients. He was incredibly relaxed about the biggest financial bubble in our history building up on his watch.

There is no chance that this man's acolytes are going to gain control of the Labour Party again. Surely?

Labour faced renewed accusations of undue union influence, however, since all three demoted ministers were named earlier this year by Len McCluskey, the general secretary of Unite, as Blairite figures who would lead Mr Milband to the “dustbin of history”.

“I think the signal in all this is very clear,” said one Blairite MP adding that claims that the demoted ministers were happy with their new roles were “bollocks”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3889192.ece

bad typing day from me - "wouldn't act after a number". "Summer Campaign". Apologies.

old_labour said:

Interestingly, Hodges thinks Ed left it too late because the new shadow cabinet ministers will not have enough time to master their new portfolios.

Omnium said:

Labour changes are by far the most interesting. (M Moore excepted). So I'm going to comment on those;

To what extent do Byrne and co. represent a bigger threat to Milliband if they are outside of the Shadow Cabinet? I think this is the most important question. If I didn't know better then this reshuffle would seem to indicate a man in total command of his party, and with endless strength and depth at his command. However what we do undeniably know is that Labour has a shortage of young aspirants. Ed is therefore digging deep here. His ammunition now consists of the old-timers. I'm not sure I can think of a single one of them though that he can rely on.

Personally I think Ed has built his castle too early. The tide will wash it away.

Stars emerge in Opposition. Flicking through their wikipedia pages, one is struck that quite a few of the new Shadow Cabinet members were first elected in 2010 -- Emma Reynolds, Liz Kendall, Gloria De Piero, Michael Dugher, Margaret Curran, Owen Smith, Tristram Hunt, Rachel Reeves, and Chuka Umunna. They have 18 months to make their marks.

surbiton said:

Mick_Pork said:

Nothing surprising about this either.

Douglas Alexander ‏@DAlexanderMP 2h

Delighted to be appointed by Ed as Chair of Gen Elec Strategy. To be part of Labour’s campaign, join us today: http://join.labour.org.uk

It's what wee Dougie almost always ends up doing though with somewhat 'mixed' results to say the least.

Sorry ! I do not agree. His contribution as the "behind the scenes" organisor was immense in 2010. It is no exaggeration that in 2010, Labour received 1983 votes and came out with 1992 seats. The organisation for 2015 is also looking good !

Wee Dougie hardly started or even stopped his backroom election 'organising' in 2010.

Like I say, he's had mixed results to say the least and he had to publicly apologise for his role in the 2007 scottish election fiasco.

He whisper campaign against little Ed early on and his behaviour toward sister Wendy also makes little Ed and brother David's relationship look positively harmonious.

I know what's happening to SLAB membership but it will be interesting to see just how effective wee Dougie will be in getting the grassroots fired up and increasing membership of labour. That the tories and lib dems are doing so badly in those areas does not automatically mean labour is doing brilliantly.

Tim Hunt and Di Piero are not Blairites as far as I am aware, only Falconer is but has hardly got a major role

old_labour said:

What are your views of Margaret Curran and Johann Lamont, if you do mind me asking?

fitalass said:

Unbelievable decision by Ed Miliband, Jim Murphy was about one of the most astute and effective Labour front bench performers and he gets demoted! And it begs the question, who is running the Labour party tonight, Ed Miliband or Len McCluskey? Watson has been publicly trolling Jim Murphy on twitter recently, this makes today's decision to purge the Blairites seem like a mix of weakness and revenge. Weakness on Miliband's part, revenge on the part of Unite Leadership. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander should be in high profile positions as we gear up for the GE, especially as they make up a very formidable team in Scotland for their party.

Twitter
Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 4h
Last year Len McCluskey demanded Ed sack Twigg, Murphy and Byrne. Today Ed sacked Twigg, Murhy and Byrne.

Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 1h
Unite's Len McCluskey leaves work with big smile on face. Tells @itvnews: Ed is the leader & his union supports whatever he does. *smiling*

Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 2h
Congratulations to Len McCluskey for his successful reshuffle of the Labour front bench

MikeSmithson said:

Easterross said:

If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

I seem to remember the hilarity of someone favourably comparing Lamont to Annabel Goldie without realising either the fate of Goldie or that Lamont is supposed to be SLAB and scottish tory comparisons are somewhat unwelcome.

The same person who predicts great things for Danny Alexander come the election.

I'll leave you to guess who.

tim said:

Tristram Hunt Gloria De Piero

I didn't know that was his full name! Posh Labour types!

'Underperforming' wasn't the motivation. Balls would clearly lead the underperformers after all (Although this is a reasonable view I think it's a little harsh). Something here surely is about making sure that the old timers can't somehow reappear.

I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

Says it all really. One Nation Labour...

Roger said:

Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, has retreated from accusations that his predecessor Andy Burnham was involved in an NHS cover-up, following a threat of legal action from Labour.

In a personal letter, Hunt said he never meant to suggest Burnham, now the shadow health secretary, was "personally involved in covering up poor care" and did not doubt his rival's integrity.

Alanbrooke Polls in 2012 showed Hollande beating Le Pen about 70-30. It has probably grown tighter, but a clear majority of mainstream centre-right voters would not vote for Le Pen, if however she were to win it would be the biggest political shock to hit Europe (and the world) since the thirties!

Does anyone doubt that Hodges is a Tory voter? Really?

Roger said:

Does anyone doubt that Hodges is a Tory voter? Really?

He's a fake libertarian serial labour voting floating voter quite obviously ;^ )

@jameschappers
Uh oh RT "@Paulflynnmp Twilight of the Blairites will lead to a new dawn for socialism." #reshuffle

Ken Livingstone is right: it's him or Boris Johnson. That's why I'm voting Boris

tim said:

JohnO said:

@tim - I see Kris Hopkins has 6.2% majority in Keighley....as I still believe that the Tories will win in 2015, how about a small wager at evens that he holds the seat. Say £25?

If he loses, we lose....and shedding a few more quid, notwithstanding it would be to you, won't materially add to the melancholia of defeat.

I'll take that.
Lib Dems in that seat break 2:1 Labour

OK, I'll let PtP know. I don't care at all about these trivial bets financially (or the 'fun factor' because it's with you).....this one owes more to heart as I rate Hopkins highly and would be depressed were he to lose. Even so a 3% swing would be on the highish side.

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke Indeed, Cope has said he won't run if Sarkozy does but Fillon has said he will run whether Sarko runs or not. Indeed a split centre-right is probably Hollande's best hope of victory. For example, in 1995 Chirac lost the first round to Jospin because the centre-right PM Balladur split the centre-right vote, yet Chirac went on to comfortably beat Jospin in the second round. However, in 2017 with Le Pen already polling well, there is every possibility the split-in the centre-right could lead to a second round between Hollande and Le Pen, which of course would see Hollande re-elected by default!

These days I'm not so sure, France is in a strange mood. Chirac-Le Pen was a right v right competition and the lefties backed Chirac while holding their nose. In a Hollande Le-Pen run off .I doubt the result would be so clear-cut.

It would be truly revolting if the French press associated Marine Le Pen's views with those expressed by her father.

Calories said:

Hun

foxinsoxuk said:

I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

Says it all really. One Nation Labour...

Roger said:

Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

foxinsoxuk said:

I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

Says it all really. One Nation Labour...

Roger said:

Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

Clearly the first ever public school educated Labourite. Ever heard of Hugh Dalton, Anthony Crosland, Tony Benn and Michael Foot ?

Even the best schools can fail the odd pupil. Those you list surely count that way,

tim said:

Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
How?

Presumably while laughing his bollocks off.

tim said:

Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
How?

Jeremy Browne was hopeless.

Stark_Dawning said:

I feel sorry for Twigg - one of the great political never wossers. He was the very embodiment of Blair's 1997 triumph, but until a few months ago I hadn't even realized he was back in parliament, let alone on the shadow front benches. Of course, his faintly moderate streak meant he was never going to last long amongst the atavists. For them the thudding soviet dogma of the LEAs is the future for ever.

Was he the bloke who conspired with the QT plant in Dover to smear Diane James and UKIP?

Of course, an enquiry into the mysterious death of David Kelly would make for some very interesting headlines over the next few months, and might focus attention on the Chilcott report and the well known hater of bullying and press intimidation, Alistair Campbell.

Hard to see why Number 10 would want that...

tim said:

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
How?

Jeremy Browne was hopeless.

But Baker believes the Home office helped cover up David Kelly's murder and that Robin cooks death was suspicious.
You wouldn't let him anywhere near security issues

tim said:

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
How?

Jeremy Browne was hopeless.

But Baker believes the Home office helped cover up David Kelly's murder and that Robin cooks death was suspicious.
You wouldn't let him anywhere near security issues

And yet he has been which sort of refutes his insistence that the Home Office covers everything up.

Hunt has very amusing views on homeopathy and would struggle to find his own arse with a flashlight and a map, yet he's Health Secetary.

Must we also bring up Liam Fox and security?

*chortle*

isam said:

Was he the bloke who conspired with the QT plant in Dover to smear Diane James and UKIP?

Didn't hear about that. Please elaborate.

Stuart_Dickson said:

MikeSmithson said:

Easterross said:

If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

The more I think about it the more problematic this becomes for the No side. Murphy was a big fan of Trident renewal. With him out the way could Labour be preparing for one of the biggest u-turns in modern political history? The implications are big. Very big.

I've seen a fair bit of speculation already about this.

Ed Miliband’s decision to keep Blairite Jim Murphy in the shadow cabinet (demoted to shadowing DfID) looks suspiciously like the act of a leader who didn’t feel strong enough to contemplate Mr Murphy on the backbenches.

Ed Miliband is said to rue the decision to continue with continuous at-sea deterrence (CASD) and four Trident submarines, and there’s bound to be suspicion that the removal of Jim Murphy from defence is part of a plan to move the party to a different place on this (even though the commitment to CASD was only signed up to this summer).

In the past, Vernon Coaker, the new shadow defence secretary, has voted in favour of Trident renewal, but I wonder where he stands now and whether it came up in the chat in the leader’s office this afternoon.

Also some interesting stuff on the supposed big rethink on union links.

One job that will fascinate some looking over the list: Jon Trickett, veteran leading figure in Compass, is the man Ed Miliband wants to oversee party renewal and the reform of the link. Hard to see Jon Trickett presiding over an “ending” of the link.

http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/milibands-labour-reshuffle-purge-blairites/26698

Stark_Dawning said:

isam said:

Was he the bloke who conspired with the QT plant in Dover to smear Diane James and UKIP?

Didn't hear about that. Please elaborate.

Here you go, it was him.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2292995/Question-Time-How-Labour-Party-planted-diehard-supporter-audience-attack-UKIP-panellist.html

The girl Rutland launched an attack on UKIP (without actually asking a question at any point) and Twigg later referred to her as if he didn't know who she was.

Think the point was for it to look like everyday people/ audience members were outraged about UKIP while Labour politician Twigg said 'they are a party whose supporters we have to listen to ' (paraphrase) in a pre rehearsed good cop / bad cop routine

O/T - The Secret History of our Streets series has been on at 9pm on Monday's on Channel 537.

Tonight's episode is on Caledonian Rd.

Last week was Camberwell Grove and it was truly fascinating. Georgian homes which were being given away in the 70s and 80s by the council these days fetching over a million.

For anyone interested in history, the class system in London and how economies and societies change, all seen through the eyes of real Lahndoners, it's great viewing.

IMO Jane Collins, Jill Seymour, Janice Atkinson and Julia Reid are basically sure to be elected.
Louise Bours and Diane James are also likely as things stand. Margot Parker also has a shot.

Garethofthevale said:

MikeK said:

Results of UKIP MEP's votes.

http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news

I see Amjad Bashir who was on TV refuting Heseltine's racist claim came second in Yorks so has a decent chance of becoming an MEP. Also a good turnout for female candidates with women topping the poll in Yorks and W Mids and coming second in SW,SE,NW, and E Mids. All have a decent chance of becoming MEPs

New Thread

@old_labour I have never been a fan of Margaret Curran, she is neither an effective politician or a particularly able media performer. Curran couldn't get out of Holyrood onto the road to Westminster fast enough, but it is Holyrood which is the place that Labour politicians really desperately needed to be doing some heavy lifting instead. Johann Lamont wouldn't have been my choice for the Scottish Labour leader, but she has been better than I thought she would be in the role. Still has a long way to go before she can move out from the shadow of previous Labour Leaders at Holyrood.

Sometimes watching Scottish Questions at Holyrood, its quite startling just how poor Salmond can come across when up against Lamont or Davidson these days. The likes of Annabel Goldie go way back with Salmond, and sometimes it all seemed a bit too comfy and a bit of a show for the galleries. Not any more.

TGOHF said:

Ahem

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges
Clear Ed did intend to sack Andy Burnham - hence briefing around Liz Kendall promotion - then ducked it.

Tough and decisive again then I see.