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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Odds on Osborne as Cameron’s successor tighten as he takes

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Tim - Going forward you are not going to mention Scott P and Fitalass directly, or indirectly.

    ScottP/Fitalass - Can you also not talk about Tim either.

    Can all three of you confirm that you understand this new rule.

    Confirmed
  • Options
    Tim, you have written hundreds of posts telling us how cr*p Osborne is. I am not an admirer of Osborne although I do not rate him as low as you. So tim, since the big story in these reshuffles are the changes Labour have made, how about giving us your views on the Labour changes?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul

    Worse. Shadow Cabinet in 2011 had 11 women as full members. Now 10. http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/261097/the-labour-reshuffle-whoand39s-up-and-whoand39s-down.thtml … Then 2 of 4 "also attending" now 4 of 7.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Oh my word. The weeping and wailing* at school today when we heard Twigg had been sacked. It was like that cheap train ticket ad where everyone goes postal.

    (* by 'weeping and wailing' I mean a lot of people were saying 'Oh. Was he shadow ed sec?')
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486


    we won't know if Dan is right until 2015, but at the moment he has the polling on his side, the UK thinks Ed is crap.

    By giving his party a solid lead.

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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Let's just have a reminder of who Blair is.

    He took us to war in Iraq on a very dodgy premise. He wanted us to bomb Syria. He thinks MPs did nothing wrong in the expenses scandal because they are under-paid. He gets paid tens of millions a year to work for various questionable clients. He was incredibly relaxed about the biggest financial bubble in our history building up on his watch.

    There is no chance that this man's acolytes are going to gain control of the Labour Party again. Surely?

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    Very baffling to me as to why people think Miliband wouldn;t act after a numer of Blairites were undermining him during the summer. Sumeer campaign against MIliband > Miliband has good Autumn and reasserts control. Not rocket science.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour faced renewed accusations of undue union influence, however, since all three demoted ministers were named earlier this year by Len McCluskey, the general secretary of Unite, as Blairite figures who would lead Mr Milband to the “dustbin of history”.

    “I think the signal in all this is very clear,” said one Blairite MP adding that claims that the demoted ministers were happy with their new roles were “bollocks”.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3889192.ece
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Alanbrooke Indeed, Cope has said he won't run if Sarkozy does but Fillon has said he will run whether Sarko runs or not. Indeed a split centre-right is probably Hollande's best hope of victory. For example, in 1995 Chirac lost the first round to Jospin because the centre-right PM Balladur split the centre-right vote, yet Chirac went on to comfortably beat Jospin in the second round. However, in 2017 with Le Pen already polling well, there is every possibility the split-in the centre-right could lead to a second round between Hollande and Le Pen, which of course would see Hollande re-elected by default!
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    bad typing day from me - "wouldn't act after a number". "Summer Campaign". Apologies.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Roger said:

    The funny thing about the Tory reshuffle is that whether you appoint women or ethnic minority men they all end up looking like what all Tory MPs look like. White middle class men dressed in blue

    Sorry Roger, age showing again. that's Thunderbirds you're thinking of.

    David Miliband has also joined International Rescue, perhaps that's where the confusion has crept in. He lives on Tracy Island beside a palm tree.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Interestingly, Hodges thinks Ed left it too late because the new shadow cabinet ministers will not have enough time to master their new portfolios.

    Omnium said:

    Labour changes are by far the most interesting. (M Moore excepted). So I'm going to comment on those;

    To what extent do Byrne and co. represent a bigger threat to Milliband if they are outside of the Shadow Cabinet? I think this is the most important question. If I didn't know better then this reshuffle would seem to indicate a man in total command of his party, and with endless strength and depth at his command. However what we do undeniably know is that Labour has a shortage of young aspirants. Ed is therefore digging deep here. His ammunition now consists of the old-timers. I'm not sure I can think of a single one of them though that he can rely on.

    Personally I think Ed has built his castle too early. The tide will wash it away.

    Stars emerge in Opposition. Flicking through their wikipedia pages, one is struck that quite a few of the new Shadow Cabinet members were first elected in 2010 -- Emma Reynolds, Liz Kendall, Gloria De Piero, Michael Dugher, Margaret Curran, Owen Smith, Tristram Hunt, Rachel Reeves, and Chuka Umunna. They have 18 months to make their marks.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited October 2013
    What are your views of Margaret Curran and Johann Lamont, if you don't mind me asking?
    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable decision by Ed Miliband, Jim Murphy was about one of the most astute and effective Labour front bench performers and he gets demoted! And it begs the question, who is running the Labour party tonight, Ed Miliband or Len McCluskey? Watson has been publicly trolling Jim Murphy on twitter recently, this makes today's decision to purge the Blairites seem like a mix of weakness and revenge. Weakness on Miliband's part, revenge on the part of Unite Leadership. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander should be in high profile positions as we gear up for the GE, especially as they make up a very formidable team in Scotland for their party.

    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 4h
    Last year Len McCluskey demanded Ed sack Twigg, Murphy and Byrne. Today Ed sacked Twigg, Murhy and Byrne.

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 1h
    Unite's Len McCluskey leaves work with big smile on face. Tells @itvnews: Ed is the leader & his union supports whatever he does. *smiling*

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 2h
    Congratulations to Len McCluskey for his successful reshuffle of the Labour front bench

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    surbiton said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Nothing surprising about this either.

    Douglas Alexander ‏@DAlexanderMP 2h

    Delighted to be appointed by Ed as Chair of Gen Elec Strategy. To be part of Labour’s campaign, join us today: http://join.labour.org.uk
    It's what wee Dougie almost always ends up doing though with somewhat 'mixed' results to say the least. ;)
    Sorry ! I do not agree. His contribution as the "behind the scenes" organisor was immense in 2010. It is no exaggeration that in 2010, Labour received 1983 votes and came out with 1992 seats. The organisation for 2015 is also looking good !

    Wee Dougie hardly started or even stopped his backroom election 'organising' in 2010.

    Like I say, he's had mixed results to say the least and he had to publicly apologise for his role in the 2007 scottish election fiasco.

    He whisper campaign against little Ed early on and his behaviour toward sister Wendy also makes little Ed and brother David's relationship look positively harmonious.

    I know what's happening to SLAB membership but it will be interesting to see just how effective wee Dougie will be in getting the grassroots fired up and increasing membership of labour. That the tories and lib dems are doing so badly in those areas does not automatically mean labour is doing brilliantly.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke Indeed, Cope has said he won't run if Sarkozy does but Fillon has said he will run whether Sarko runs or not. Indeed a split centre-right is probably Hollande's best hope of victory. For example, in 1995 Chirac lost the first round to Jospin because the centre-right PM Balladur split the centre-right vote, yet Chirac went on to comfortably beat Jospin in the second round. However, in 2017 with Le Pen already polling well, there is every possibility the split-in the centre-right could lead to a second round between Hollande and Le Pen, which of course would see Hollande re-elected by default!

    These days I'm not so sure, France is in a strange mood. Chirac-Le Pen was a right v right competition and the lefties backed Chirac while holding their nose. In a Hollande Le-Pen run off .I doubt the result would be so clear-cut.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Tim Hunt and Di Piero are not Blairites as far as I am aware, only Falconer is but has hardly got a major role
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    What are your views of Margaret Curran and Johann Lamont, if you do mind me asking?

    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable decision by Ed Miliband, Jim Murphy was about one of the most astute and effective Labour front bench performers and he gets demoted! And it begs the question, who is running the Labour party tonight, Ed Miliband or Len McCluskey? Watson has been publicly trolling Jim Murphy on twitter recently, this makes today's decision to purge the Blairites seem like a mix of weakness and revenge. Weakness on Miliband's part, revenge on the part of Unite Leadership. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander should be in high profile positions as we gear up for the GE, especially as they make up a very formidable team in Scotland for their party.

    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 4h
    Last year Len McCluskey demanded Ed sack Twigg, Murphy and Byrne. Today Ed sacked Twigg, Murhy and Byrne.

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 1h
    Unite's Len McCluskey leaves work with big smile on face. Tells @itvnews: Ed is the leader & his union supports whatever he does. *smiling*

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 2h
    Congratulations to Len McCluskey for his successful reshuffle of the Labour front bench

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

    I seem to remember the hilarity of someone favourably comparing Lamont to Annabel Goldie without realising either the fate of Goldie or that Lamont is supposed to be SLAB and scottish tory comparisons are somewhat unwelcome.

    The same person who predicts great things for Danny Alexander come the election.

    I'll leave you to guess who. :D

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @tim - quoting editor of Labour List.

    Truly the jolie joceur of pb.

    And spare us the sanctimony. Stick to the smearing.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793
    tim said:

    Tristram Hunt Gloria De Piero

    I didn't know that was his full name! Posh Labour types!

    'Underperforming' wasn't the motivation. Balls would clearly lead the underperformers after all (Although this is a reasonable view I think it's a little harsh). Something here surely is about making sure that the old timers can't somehow reappear.

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'Except I get the calls right, Osbornes useless strategy did cost the Tories a majority'

    Maybe in your dreams,the two people on PB that called it right were Rod & JackW.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "There is no money left" has also left.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Hi JohnO

    "And spare us the sanctimony. Stick to the smearing."

    OK just a small smear

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5mVoqJpUk
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2013
    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...
    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

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    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable decision by Ed Miliband, Jim Murphy was about one of the most astute and effective Labour front bench performers and he gets demoted! And it begs the question, who is running the Labour party tonight, Ed Miliband or Len McCluskey? Watson has been publicly trolling Jim Murphy on twitter recently, this makes today's decision to purge the Blairites seem like a mix of weakness and revenge. Weakness on Miliband's part, revenge on the part of Unite Leadership. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander should be in high profile positions as we gear up for the GE, especially as they make up a very formidable team in Scotland for their party.

    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 4h
    Last year Len McCluskey demanded Ed sack Twigg, Murphy and Byrne. Today Ed sacked Twigg, Murhy and Byrne.

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 1h
    Unite's Len McCluskey leaves work with big smile on face. Tells @itvnews: Ed is the leader & his union supports whatever he does. *smiling*

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 2h
    Congratulations to Len McCluskey for his successful reshuffle of the Labour front bench

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

    Murphy should take it as a compliment , EdM obviously regards him as a threat. Communist doctrine teaches that the internal enemy is always the most important.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,880
    Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, has retreated from accusations that his predecessor Andy Burnham was involved in an NHS cover-up, following a threat of legal action from Labour.

    In a personal letter, Hunt said he never meant to suggest Burnham, now the shadow health secretary, was "personally involved in covering up poor care" and did not doubt his rival's integrity.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    What are your views of Margaret Curran and Johann Lamont, if you don't mind me asking?

    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable decision by Ed Miliband, Jim Murphy was about one of the most astute and effective Labour front bench performers and he gets demoted! And it begs the question, who is running the Labour party tonight, Ed Miliband or Len McCluskey? Watson has been publicly trolling Jim Murphy on twitter recently, this makes today's decision to purge the Blairites seem like a mix of weakness and revenge. Weakness on Miliband's part, revenge on the part of Unite Leadership. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander should be in high profile positions as we gear up for the GE, especially as they make up a very formidable team in Scotland for their party.

    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 4h
    Last year Len McCluskey demanded Ed sack Twigg, Murphy and Byrne. Today Ed sacked Twigg, Murhy and Byrne.

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 1h
    Unite's Len McCluskey leaves work with big smile on face. Tells @itvnews: Ed is the leader & his union supports whatever he does. *smiling*

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 2h
    Congratulations to Len McCluskey for his successful reshuffle of the Labour front bench

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

    How did I know you would include a Dan Hodges quote ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Alanbrooke Polls in 2012 showed Hollande beating Le Pen about 70-30. It has probably grown tighter, but a clear majority of mainstream centre-right voters would not vote for Le Pen, if however she were to win it would be the biggest political shock to hit Europe (and the world) since the thirties!
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @tim - I see Kris Hopkins has 6.2% majority in Keighley....as I still believe that the Tories will win in 2015, how about a small wager at evens that he holds the seat. Say £25?

    If he loses, we lose....and shedding a few more quid, notwithstanding it would be to you, won't materially add to the melancholia of defeat.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Does anyone doubt that Hodges is a Tory voter? Really?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    I was at university with Tristram Hunt, Gavin Barwell and Kwasi Kwarteng. The last was by far the most impressive. It is sad he was the only no one not to get promoted today.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Roger said:

    Does anyone doubt that Hodges is a Tory voter? Really?

    He's a fake libertarian serial labour voting floating voter quite obviously ;^ )

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    edited October 2013
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke Polls in 2012 showed Hollande beating Le Pen about 70-30. It has probably grown tighter, but a clear majority of mainstream centre-right voters would not vote for Le Pen, if however she were to win it would be the biggest political shock to hit Europe (and the world) since the thirties!

    I think it would be tighter as Hollande doesn't impress, more righties simply wouldn't bother voting for Francois and the FN is more a populist party and while labelled right wing it still mops up a lot of lefty votes, ex communists from memory.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameschappers
    Uh oh RT "@Paulflynnmp Twilight of the Blairites will lead to a new dawn for socialism." #reshuffle
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    Hun

    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...


    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...


    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    Clearly the first ever public school educated Labourite. Ever heard of Hugh Dalton, Anthony Crosland, Tony Benn and Michael Foot ?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelegraphNews
    Ed Miliband accused of Blairite 'purge' as he removes moderates from shadow cabinet http://fw.to/cYPYwoG
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - I see Kris Hopkins has 6.2% majority in Keighley....as I still believe that the Tories will win in 2015, how about a small wager at evens that he holds the seat. Say £25?

    If he loses, we lose....and shedding a few more quid, notwithstanding it would be to you, won't materially add to the melancholia of defeat.

    I'll take that.
    Lib Dems in that seat break 2:1 Labour
    OK, I'll let PtP know. I don't care at all about these trivial bets financially (or the 'fun factor' because it's with you).....this one owes more to heart as I rate Hopkins highly and would be depressed were he to lose. Even so a 3% swing would be on the highish side.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013

    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke Polls in 2012 showed Hollande beating Le Pen about 70-30. It has probably grown tighter, but a clear majority of mainstream centre-right voters would not vote for Le Pen, if however she were to win it would be the biggest political shock to hit Europe (and the world) since the thirties!

    I think it would be tighter as Hollande doesn't impress, more righties simply wouldn't bother voting for Francois and the FN is more a populist party and while labelled right wing it still mops up a lot of lefty votes, ex communists from memory.
    I personally think Le Pen, junior, is significantly less impressive than her dad.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke Indeed, Cope has said he won't run if Sarkozy does but Fillon has said he will run whether Sarko runs or not. Indeed a split centre-right is probably Hollande's best hope of victory. For example, in 1995 Chirac lost the first round to Jospin because the centre-right PM Balladur split the centre-right vote, yet Chirac went on to comfortably beat Jospin in the second round. However, in 2017 with Le Pen already polling well, there is every possibility the split-in the centre-right could lead to a second round between Hollande and Le Pen, which of course would see Hollande re-elected by default!

    These days I'm not so sure, France is in a strange mood. Chirac-Le Pen was a right v right competition and the lefties backed Chirac while holding their nose. In a Hollande Le-Pen run off .I doubt the result would be so clear-cut.
    It would be truly revolting if the French press associated Marine Le Pen's views with those expressed by her father.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,880
    If DPJ Hodges isn't a Tory voter he does a great impression of one
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793
    Calories said:

    Hun

    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...


    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...


    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    Clearly the first ever public school educated Labourite. Ever heard of Hugh Dalton, Anthony Crosland, Tony Benn and Michael Foot ?


    Even the best schools can fail the odd pupil. Those you list surely count that way,
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke Polls in 2012 showed Hollande beating Le Pen about 70-30. It has probably grown tighter, but a clear majority of mainstream centre-right voters would not vote for Le Pen, if however she were to win it would be the biggest political shock to hit Europe (and the world) since the thirties!

    I think it would be tighter as Hollande doesn't impress, more righties simply wouldn't bother voting for Francois and the FN is more a populist party and while labelled right wing it still mops up a lot of lefty votes, ex communists from memory.
    I personally think Le Pen, junior, is significantly less impressive than her dad.
    The old man was a veteran tub-thumper a sort of French Ian Paisley. The Daughter on the other hand has probably more appeal as she can reach areas JMLP couldn't.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    tim said:

    Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
    How?

    Presumably while laughing his bollocks off.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    There are a number of others including the deputy leader and the Shadow Chancellor.

    Its all chums together, isnt it?

    Calories said:

    Hun

    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...


    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    I see Tristam Hunt, the new Shadow Education secretary went to the £17,000 pound per year private school in Hampstead - University College School.

    Says it all really. One Nation Labour...


    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    Clearly the first ever public school educated Labourite. Ever heard of Hugh Dalton, Anthony Crosland, Tony Benn and Michael Foot ?

  • Options

    What are your views of Margaret Curran and Johann Lamont, if you don't mind me asking?

    fitalass said:

    Unbelievable decision by Ed Miliband, Jim Murphy was about one of the most astute and effective Labour front bench performers and he gets demoted! And it begs the question, who is running the Labour party tonight, Ed Miliband or Len McCluskey? Watson has been publicly trolling Jim Murphy on twitter recently, this makes today's decision to purge the Blairites seem like a mix of weakness and revenge. Weakness on Miliband's part, revenge on the part of Unite Leadership. Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander should be in high profile positions as we gear up for the GE, especially as they make up a very formidable team in Scotland for their party.

    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 4h
    Last year Len McCluskey demanded Ed sack Twigg, Murphy and Byrne. Today Ed sacked Twigg, Murhy and Byrne.

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 1h
    Unite's Len McCluskey leaves work with big smile on face. Tells @itvnews: Ed is the leader & his union supports whatever he does. *smiling*

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 2h
    Congratulations to Len McCluskey for his successful reshuffle of the Labour front bench

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

    Laurel and Hardy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Alanbrooke She would get about a 1/3 of the vote at most, but the entire political establishment would rally around Hollande against Le Pen, including, Fillon and, very reluctantly, Sarkozy
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
    How?

    Jeremy Browne was hopeless.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke She would get about a 1/3 of the vote at most, but the entire political establishment would rally around Hollande against Le Pen, including, Fillon and, very reluctantly, Sarkozy

    I couldn't quite see her getting elected but I could see her getting more than a third of the vote.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited October 2013
    Even more money going on LAB in Dunfermline. Hills have shortened their odds again, for the 2nd time today:

    Best prices - Dunfermline by-election
    Lab 4/9 BetVictor
    SNP 5/2 Hills
    LD 33/1 various
    Ind 100/1
    Grn 125/1
    UKIP 125/1
    Con 200/1
  • Options
    I feel sorry for Twigg - one of the great political never wossers. He was the very embodiment of Blair's 1997 triumph, but until a few months ago I hadn't even realized he was back in parliament, let alone on the shadow front benches. Of course, his faintly moderate streak meant he was never going to last long amongst the atavists. For them the thudding soviet dogma of the LEAs is the future for ever.
  • Options
    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited October 2013

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

    The more I think about it the more problematic this becomes for the No side. Murphy was a big fan of Trident renewal. With him out the way could Labour be preparing for one of the biggest u-turns in modern political history? The implications are big. Very big.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Alanbrooke At an absolute maximum 40%, although even were she not to win, such a vote would still send shockwaves
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Results of UKIP MEP's votes.

    http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news


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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges
    Interesting reaction from the left. 3 hours ago it was "Blarites culled!!! Yes!!!". Now it's "Er...no cull...all about talent...move on".
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933

    I feel sorry for Twigg - one of the great political never wossers. He was the very embodiment of Blair's 1997 triumph, but until a few months ago I hadn't even realized he was back in parliament, let alone on the shadow front benches. Of course, his faintly moderate streak meant he was never going to last long amongst the atavists. For them the thudding soviet dogma of the LEAs is the future for ever.


    Was he the bloke who conspired with the QT plant in Dover to smear Diane James and UKIP?
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    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    @tim - I see Kris Hopkins has 6.2% majority in Keighley....as I still believe that the Tories will win in 2015, how about a small wager at evens that he holds the seat. Say £25?

    If he loses, we lose....and shedding a few more quid, notwithstanding it would be to you, won't materially add to the melancholia of defeat.

    I'll take that.
    Lib Dems in that seat break 2:1 Labour
    Even if they did then that would only gain Labour about 600 votes while Hopkins's majority is nearly 3000.

    Now its possible for Labour to win Keighley but to do so they'll need either to take votes direct from the Conservatives and/or hope the Conservatives lose much more heavily to UKIP than they do.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Of course, an enquiry into the mysterious death of David Kelly would make for some very interesting headlines over the next few months, and might focus attention on the Chilcott report and the well known hater of bullying and press intimidation, Alistair Campbell.

    Hard to see why Number 10 would want that...

    tim said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
    How?

    Jeremy Browne was hopeless.
    But Baker believes the Home office helped cover up David Kelly's murder and that Robin cooks death was suspicious.
    You wouldn't let him anywhere near security issues
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    Awwww, I see Hunt has wriggled out of the Burnham spat! Shame - I was looking forward to the libel trial. But if Burnham stays as Labour's 'Face of the NHS' for the foreseeable then that can only count as job done as far as Hunt is concerned.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
    How?

    Jeremy Browne was hopeless.
    But Baker believes the Home office helped cover up David Kelly's murder and that Robin cooks death was suspicious.
    You wouldn't let him anywhere near security issues
    And yet he has been which sort of refutes his insistence that the Home Office covers everything up.

    Hunt has very amusing views on homeopathy and would struggle to find his own arse with a flashlight and a map, yet he's Health Secetary.

    Must we also bring up Liam Fox and security?

    *chortle*


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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke At an absolute maximum 40%, although even were she not to win, such a vote would still send shockwaves

    40% was rated as her maximum appeal in the last presidential. However on a run off I just can't see that many on the right voting Hollande to keep LP out, they'll just not vote. And there also is a degree of french unpredictability some of them will be quite content to unsettle the establishment.
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    isam said:


    Was he the bloke who conspired with the QT plant in Dover to smear Diane James and UKIP?

    Didn't hear about that. Please elaborate.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    @Stuart

    Murphy wrote he will spend more time with Better Together campaign in the next few months.

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    Next Labour Leader market: Shadsy has just re-priced Jim Murphy to 12/1 (from 8/1).
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Roger said:

    Tristram Hunt is an excellent appointment. Articulate and a genuine enthusiast. I just await news on Ian Wilson in a second rung appointment and I think it'll be safe to say labour's hegemony is secure

    Tristam Hunt is a pompous bore.
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    @Stuart

    Murphy wrote he will spend more time with Better Together campaign in the next few months.

    Good. It'll make a nice change from that twerp Anas Sarwar.

    The Yes side will benefit from debating with more cerebral opponents.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    If Ed Miliband has indeed demoted Jim Murphy, that will go down like a bag of sick in Scotland. Together with Douglas Alexander he is seen as one of the most able and intelligent Labour politicians. Obviously I hope to live long enough to see him lose his seat back to the Tories but he is a very good speaker though clearly by his accent very very Glaswegian.

    Incidentally I didn't know Norman Baker is an Aberdonian.

    Dead right about Jim Murphy - one of the few really talented people on the LAB team now demoted.

    The more I think about it the more problematic this becomes for the No side. Murphy was a big fan of Trident renewal. With him out the way could Labour be preparing for one of the biggest u-turns in modern political history? The implications are big. Very big.
    I've seen a fair bit of speculation already about this.
    Ed Miliband’s decision to keep Blairite Jim Murphy in the shadow cabinet (demoted to shadowing DfID) looks suspiciously like the act of a leader who didn’t feel strong enough to contemplate Mr Murphy on the backbenches.

    Ed Miliband is said to rue the decision to continue with continuous at-sea deterrence (CASD) and four Trident submarines, and there’s bound to be suspicion that the removal of Jim Murphy from defence is part of a plan to move the party to a different place on this (even though the commitment to CASD was only signed up to this summer).

    In the past, Vernon Coaker, the new shadow defence secretary, has voted in favour of Trident renewal, but I wonder where he stands now and whether it came up in the chat in the leader’s office this afternoon.
    Also some interesting stuff on the supposed big rethink on union links.
    One job that will fascinate some looking over the list: Jon Trickett, veteran leading figure in Compass, is the man Ed Miliband wants to oversee party renewal and the reform of the link. Hard to see Jon Trickett presiding over an “ending” of the link.

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/milibands-labour-reshuffle-purge-blairites/26698


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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Alanbrooke Maybe, but enough of the middle class and ethnic vote will vote for Hollande to prevent her winning, even if she polls strongly with the white lower middle class and blue collar vote
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933

    isam said:


    Was he the bloke who conspired with the QT plant in Dover to smear Diane James and UKIP?

    Didn't hear about that. Please elaborate.
    Here you go, it was him.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2292995/Question-Time-How-Labour-Party-planted-diehard-supporter-audience-attack-UKIP-panellist.html

    The girl Rutland launched an attack on UKIP (without actually asking a question at any point) and Twigg later referred to her as if he didn't know who she was.

    Think the point was for it to look like everyday people/ audience members were outraged about UKIP while Labour politician Twigg said 'they are a party whose supporters we have to listen to ' (paraphrase) in a pre rehearsed good cop / bad cop routine
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    Murphy was a big fan of Trident renewal. With him out the way could Labour be preparing for one of the biggest u-turns in modern political history? The implications are big. Very big.

    Fascinating speculation - Miliband dusting off his old CND banners. There must be a huge chance that Miliband orchestrates Labour's total embrace of unilateralism by the end of this parliament.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    O/T - The Secret History of our Streets series has been on at 9pm on Monday's on Channel 537.

    Tonight's episode is on Caledonian Rd.

    Last week was Camberwell Grove and it was truly fascinating. Georgian homes which were being given away in the 70s and 80s by the council these days fetching over a million.

    For anyone interested in history, the class system in London and how economies and societies change, all seen through the eyes of real Lahndoners, it's great viewing.
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    MikeK said:

    Results of UKIP MEP's votes.

    http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news


    I see Amjad Bashir who was on TV refuting Heseltine's racist claim came second in Yorks so has a decent chance of becoming an MEP. Also a good turnout for female candidates with women topping the poll in Yorks and W Mids and coming second in SW,SE,NW, and E Mids. All have a decent chance of becoming MEPs
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    IMO Jane Collins, Jill Seymour, Janice Atkinson and Julia Reid are basically sure to be elected.
    Louise Bours and Diane James are also likely as things stand. Margot Parker also has a shot.

    MikeK said:

    Results of UKIP MEP's votes.

    http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news


    I see Amjad Bashir who was on TV refuting Heseltine's racist claim came second in Yorks so has a decent chance of becoming an MEP. Also a good turnout for female candidates with women topping the poll in Yorks and W Mids and coming second in SW,SE,NW, and E Mids. All have a decent chance of becoming MEPs
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    tim said:

    Strange decision on housing

    @PaulGoodmanCH: The reshuffle: Evening Summary. Big Whips Office changes...and what will be seen as a demotion for housing. http://t.co/ilx0rGhrwt

    You know your politicians Tim - who is the most left wing Tory MP and who is the most right wing Labour MP? And do they overlap?

    I always find it difficult to judge somebody's left or rightness. For instance, how would you regard Dr Sarah Woolaston? She is difficult to judge - more libertarian than many of the Lib Dems.

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    New Thread
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Tim Shipman (Mail) ‏@ShippersUnbound 2m
    M.Eagle - Creagh job swap clears the way for Labour to ditch HS2

    Besides Osbornes ever tightening ligature around the throat of the Tory Party, that's the biggest news.

    Not what I heard on radio leeds news reports,creagh sounded all in favour of HS2,bringing jobs to the north and all that.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    @old_labour I have never been a fan of Margaret Curran, she is neither an effective politician or a particularly able media performer. Curran couldn't get out of Holyrood onto the road to Westminster fast enough, but it is Holyrood which is the place that Labour politicians really desperately needed to be doing some heavy lifting instead. Johann Lamont wouldn't have been my choice for the Scottish Labour leader, but she has been better than I thought she would be in the role. Still has a long way to go before she can move out from the shadow of previous Labour Leaders at Holyrood.

    Sometimes watching Scottish Questions at Holyrood, its quite startling just how poor Salmond can come across when up against Lamont or Davidson these days. The likes of Annabel Goldie go way back with Salmond, and sometimes it all seemed a bit too comfy and a bit of a show for the galleries. Not any more.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,346
    Can't post on the new thread yet ("Discussion ID required"). But link 21 on Malala is absolutely riveting.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TGOHF said:

    Ahem

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges
    Clear Ed did intend to sack Andy Burnham - hence briefing around Liz Kendall promotion - then ducked it.

    Tough and decisive again then I see.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    Number Ten saying Cameron approved Norman Baker to the home Office.
    How?

    Jeremy Browne was hopeless.
    But Baker believes the Home office helped cover up David Kelly's murder and that Robin cooks death was suspicious.
    You wouldn't let him anywhere near security issues
    On the other hand PB's leading anti-tipster always heaped praise on Jeremy Browne whenever he was on QT so his fate was sealed along with Murphy's.

    :D
This discussion has been closed.