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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The FINAL local elections of 2016

13

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Sean_F said:

    @MaxPB,

    I could see them losing a few, eg Brighton Kemptown, Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, but gaining many more from Labour.

    Yes, 6 or 7 losses to the Lib Dems and 25-30 gains from Labour. An increase from 10 to 50 in the overall majority.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    @Artist

    Kent as a whole has become terrible for Labour.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    PlatoSaid said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    It's beyond one-eyed now.
    It's odd because the business section is still largely reporting the news as is, but the news editorial team seem to have gone insane.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    @josiasjessop

    This is a very divided country, more so than any time since the eighties. NOC would force a more consensual approach to the issue that will dominate UK politics for the next decade.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,803

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    Just got a thank you from the Graun (chortle). It thanked me for 25,000 responses.

    Say what???

    Also love the begging line "please help us..for less than a cup of coffee a week...". In Islington maybe...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning all.

    How does one reply directly to a statement now without the comment button?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    @MaxPB,

    I could see them losing a few, eg Brighton Kemptown, Twickenham, Kingston, Bath, but gaining many more from Labour.

    Yes, 6 or 7 losses to the Lib Dems and 25-30 gains from Labour. An increase from 10 to 50 in the overall majority.
    Possibly, but possibly not. A post A50 election will be very different to a pre A50 one.

    It would at the very least force the parties to put out Brexit manifestos and give whoever wins a mandate.

    Also some political betting opportunities :-)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I'd forgotten they had one

    TV Live
    The ITV News Channel closed down 11 years ago today. @alstewitn presented the last programme. https://t.co/dxJp2Lk2HL
  • Good morning all.

    How does one reply directly to a statement now without the comment button?

    ***

    Copy and paste?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    Perhaps they're too polite to high-five actually in front of your face?
  • Miss Plato, shame it isn't still up. A variety of sources for news is a good thing.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,803
    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    There's little point in getting into you say tomAto, I say tomarto. But your Brexit is going to have to deliver for the CDEs. I see nothing in anything this Government says that gives me any indication it will. They'll wake up to it, eventually.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2016
    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    Interesting - the British Council survey on 'attitudes to BREXIT' was conducted only among 18-34 year olds - the most enthusiastic REMAINERs in the UK:

    The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has caused some damage to its reputation among EU members of the G20, but raises hopes of wider world ties, according to early findings from a large survey released by the British Council today.

    The opinion survey of nearly 40,000 people aged between 18 and 34 years old was carried out for the British Council by Ipsos MORI in two waves either side of the EU referendum.

    And while the results show some significant negative shifts in the EU countries towards the UK’s attractiveness – as well as its people and government - there were positive reactions from nations outside the bloc.


    https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/press/british-council-releases-new-post-brexit-g20-survey
  • Miss Vance, sounds gerrymandertastic.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,916
    edited December 2016

    Good morning all.

    How does one reply directly to a statement now without the comment button?

    ***

    Copy and paste?

    Click on the time stamp of a post (8:27AM in yours) and it takes you approximately to that post in the Vanilla forum - the quote function is available there.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    My Xmas joke sent to me yesterday.. it just has nothing to do with Xmas..

    THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OFFICERS AND NCO'S



    A young Army officer was severely wounded in the head by a grenade, but the only visible, permanent injury was that both of his ears were amputated. Since his remaining hearing was sufficient, he remained in the Army. Many years later he eventually rose to the rank of Major General. He was, however, very sensitive about his appearance. One day the General was interviewing three servicemen who were candidates for his headquarters staff.





    The first was a Captain, a tactical helicopter pilot, and it was a great interview. At the end of the interview the General asked him, 'Do you notice anything different about me ?'



    The young officer answered, 'Why, yes, Sir, I couldn't help but notice that you have no ears.' The general was displeased with his lack of tact and threw him out. The second interview was with a Navy Lieutenant, and he was even better. The General then asked him the same question, 'Do you notice anything different about me ?' He replied sheepishly, 'Well, sir, you have no ears.' The General also threw him out.



    The third interview was with an old Sergeant Major, an Infantryman and staff-trained NCO. He was smart, articulate, fit, looked sharp, and seemed to know more than the two officers combined. The General liked this guy, and went ahead with the same question, 'Do you notice anything different about me ?'



    To his surprise the Sergeant Major said, 'Yes, sir, you wear contact lenses.'



    The General was very impressed and thought, 'What an incredibly observant NCO, and he didn't mention my ears.' He asked, 'Sergeant Major, how do you know I wear contacts ?'



    “Well, sir,' the soldier replied, it's pretty hard to wear glasses with no f-ckin ’ears.”













  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    On tonight's Border TV News the Labour representative on the By-election package was Cllr Tim Knowles who's the Chair of the Cumbria CC Labour Group. He would tick a number for boxes as a candidate. He's a shill for Sellafield, he's a bit dim so wouldn't challenge Sue Hayman for the new seat in 2020, he's part of the local labour establishment but crucially a county not a borough councillor. So he's detached from the local meltdown that led to the Mayoral referendum then loss.

    The give away for me was he was wearing a clearly new and illfitting suit and red tie which had clearly been bought in haste.

    Not having a go, just genuinely curious as to the tell tale signs that indicate a tie has been bought in haste?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    Interesting - the British Council survey on 'attitudes to BREXIT' was conducted only among 18-34 year olds - the most enthusiastic REMAINERs in the UK:

    The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has caused some damage to its reputation among EU members of the G20, but raises hopes of wider world ties, according to early findings from a large survey released by the British Council today.

    The opinion survey of nearly 40,000 people aged between 18 and 34 years old was carried out for the British Council by Ipsos MORI in two waves either side of the EU referendum.

    And while the results show some significant negative shifts in the EU countries towards the UK’s attractiveness – as well as its people and government - there were positive reactions from nations outside the bloc.


    https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/press/british-council-releases-new-post-brexit-g20-survey
    Our future with Zimbabwe is assured. Hurrah!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    In regard to quote button is this related to the number of hits on a site?

    If we come through the Internet route then I was wondering if the PB site gets the hit but not Vanilla. Hence although vanilla provides the infrastructure it's not recognised as such. However if the vanilla site is used directly the situation is reversed? I confess no idea how the infrastructure works but Vanilla getting more hits must be good for advertising how many people use them and promoting themselves along the lines of hits on PB for gaining advertising?

    Mentioned thevpreviously but the "more comments" button is right on top of the Vanilla button at the bottom of the page and I have many times ended up on Vanilla page when looking for more comments so creates an additional inadvertent hit process to vanilla

    *places tin foil hat back in bottom drawer*
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    That's not the reaction you want from people whose goodwill will be required to put in the work to smooth over any cracks from reworking reams of trade deals. If Brexit is just a local irrelevance it doesn't say much for the brave new internationalist future we were sold.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    PlatoSaid said:

    I'd forgotten they had one

    TV Live
    The ITV News Channel closed down 11 years ago today. @alstewitn presented the last programme. https://t.co/dxJp2Lk2HL

    Perhaps they bought the "end of history" line? I mean, there's not been much happening recently.....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    when it comes to lack of talent just look at the Labour benches.. the Tories have some awful MP;s but Labour is much worse , most /nearly all the decent guys left after Brown and McBride.

    Let's face it, with the way the media is nobody with any sense would go into politics any more. And it looks like nobody with any sense has.
  • @SeanF - i don't understand erstwhile rurosceptixs
    TOPPING said:

    Easy Labour hold in Aylesham then, despite high Leave vote although pitifully low turnout.

    That Labour brand is rather sticky.

    No Cons activist in any way underestimates the Lab effort in any particular area. The machine locally has not broken down and is as strong and dangerous (if you're a Con!) as ever.

    Clean streets, traffic, and the new development outweigh the latest bonkers Jezza action.
    Ha. I love it when we're back on the same side.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    People talk UKIP up on here but what threat are they really if they can't even put up candidates in places like Eastleigh and Dover?

    Hedge End is not natural kipper territory, but Dover surely is.

    Post Brexit the kippers are without purpose, and will crumble to a remnant. The question is where those votes will go. My guess is that they will go fairly evenly to Lab and Tory.
    Wasn't @blackburn63 who [used?] to post on here the Kipper candidate in Dover?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,803
    Moses_ said:

    In regard to quote button is this related to the number of hits on a site?

    If we come through the Internet route then I was wondering if the PB site gets the hit but not Vanilla. Hence although vanilla provides the infrastructure it's not recognised as such. However if the vanilla site is used directly the situation is reversed? I confess no idea how the infrastructure works but Vanilla getting more hits must be good for advertising how many people use them and promoting themselves along the lines of hits on PB for gaining advertising?

    Mentioned thevpreviously but the "more comments" button is right on top of the Vanilla button at the bottom of the page and I have many times ended up on Vanilla page when looking for more comments so creates an additional inadvertent hit process to vanilla

    *places tin foil hat back in bottom drawer*

    Just use Vanilla - apart from not showing the header in full which is a nuisance, it's a far superior experience in my view.
  • Miss Vance, sounds gerrymandertastic.

    It may be useful for the purposes of 'attracting people to study in the UK' - but any reporting of it that does not cover the demographic questioned (and therefore implies total base) must be highly suspect.
  • TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    Interesting - the British Council survey on 'attitudes to BREXIT' was conducted only among 18-34 year olds - the most enthusiastic REMAINERs in the UK:

    The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has caused some damage to its reputation among EU members of the G20, but raises hopes of wider world ties, according to early findings from a large survey released by the British Council today.

    The opinion survey of nearly 40,000 people aged between 18 and 34 years old was carried out for the British Council by Ipsos MORI in two waves either side of the EU referendum.

    And while the results show some significant negative shifts in the EU countries towards the UK’s attractiveness – as well as its people and government - there were positive reactions from nations outside the bloc.


    https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/press/british-council-releases-new-post-brexit-g20-survey
    Our future with Zimbabwe is assured. Hurrah!
    "Rhodesia", old boy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    @SeanF - i don't understand erstwhile rurosceptixs

    TOPPING said:

    Easy Labour hold in Aylesham then, despite high Leave vote although pitifully low turnout.

    That Labour brand is rather sticky.

    No Cons activist in any way underestimates the Lab effort in any particular area. The machine locally has not broken down and is as strong and dangerous (if you're a Con!) as ever.

    Clean streets, traffic, and the new development outweigh the latest bonkers Jezza action.
    Ha. I love it when we're back on the same side.

    :smile:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    joke

    :lol:
  • TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    Interesting - the British Council survey on 'attitudes to BREXIT' was conducted only among 18-34 year olds - the most enthusiastic REMAINERs in the UK:

    The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has caused some damage to its reputation among EU members of the G20, but raises hopes of wider world ties, according to early findings from a large survey released by the British Council today.

    The opinion survey of nearly 40,000 people aged between 18 and 34 years old was carried out for the British Council by Ipsos MORI in two waves either side of the EU referendum.

    And while the results show some significant negative shifts in the EU countries towards the UK’s attractiveness – as well as its people and government - there were positive reactions from nations outside the bloc.


    https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/press/british-council-releases-new-post-brexit-g20-survey
    Our future with Zimbabwe is assured. Hurrah!
    The UK’s overall rank for attractiveness remained high – fourth in the world when considering tourism, studying, arts and culture, making personal contacts, and doing business and trade.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    Interesting - the British Council survey on 'attitudes to BREXIT' was conducted only among 18-34 year olds - the most enthusiastic REMAINERs in the UK:

    The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has caused some damage to its reputation among EU members of the G20, but raises hopes of wider world ties, according to early findings from a large survey released by the British Council today.

    The opinion survey of nearly 40,000 people aged between 18 and 34 years old was carried out for the British Council by Ipsos MORI in two waves either side of the EU referendum.

    And while the results show some significant negative shifts in the EU countries towards the UK’s attractiveness – as well as its people and government - there were positive reactions from nations outside the bloc.


    https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/press/british-council-releases-new-post-brexit-g20-survey
    Our future with Zimbabwe is assured. Hurrah!
    And Theresa May will learn from Robert Mugabe, and still be our leader when she's 92....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Just got a thank you from the Graun (chortle). It thanked me for 25,000 responses.

    Say what???

    Also love the begging line "please help us..for less than a cup of coffee a week...". In Islington maybe...

    You've posted 25,000 times on CiF?!?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Shami Chakrabarti on Radio 4: we should consider halving the prison population.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    Good morning all.

    How does one reply directly to a statement now without the comment button?

    Click on the timestamp and it will take you to the vanillaforums site where the quote function still works

    (Or just use politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com although I believe OGH doesn't get advertising revenue if you do)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,472

    @josiasjessop

    This is a very divided country, more so than any time since the eighties. NOC would force a more consensual approach to the issue that will dominate UK politics for the next decade.

    I'm not sure it is that divided: there are the hardcore Brexit loons at one extreme, and the EU Federalists on the other. These are noisy idiots and should perhaps best be ignored. But they are in the minority, despite their loud voices.

    In between are the majority of voters who voted one way or the other but, aside from niggles, have other pressing concerns that are not immediately to do with the EU.

    I voted remain. I know many people who voted remain, and many who voted leave. Do I feel 'divided' from those who voted leave? No, because I am in the fortunate position that none of them are from the loony persuasion of Brexiteers.

    I do know one rather extreme Europhile though, and it's best to avoid the topic with her ...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    The Times has really lost its way trying to big up the Brexit Horror. Whoever is grubbing around for these stories should be put on sport. Maybe lower league ice hockey.

    Maybe it will get its marbles back once we are in a post-Article 50 world.

    Maybe many will.

    Maybe.

    I think it more likely that many will be getting a rapid, cold and hard dose of reality in the Post A50 world. The levels of hubris on here have been world class. But most of the rest of the world is looking on with an odd mix of wonderment and disbelief.
    No they aren't. I travel a lot for work and the number one reaction is no reaction. Most people don't care, and this is in banking. If your world only extends to Brussels then your statement might be true, but beyond the borders of Europe no one really gives a shit, and those that do are largely positive.
    There have been a bunch of French people I talk to who say "if I'd been British I'd have voted the same way"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Result of by election in Aylesham:

    Labour 460 Tories 283 - (turnout less than 20% )

    Stupid having an election so near Xmas.

    Eh, the division I live in had a turnout in the mid 20s in may when full council elections are on - if people don't care the time doesn't seem to count for much.
  • AndyJS said:

    Shami Chakrabarti on Radio 4: we should consider halving the prison population.

    Woah. Read that as 'hanging', for a second.

    My.. how her views have changed.
  • I wonder whether Buckingham Palace will insist on a retraction from the Times as it did with the Sun over its "Queen backs Brexit" headline. I don't remember pb's diehard Leavers being so concerned about that story.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    foxinsoxuk: "I don't think May would do anything so edgy. I think she has no track record on campaigning."

    Theresa May went on from Torbay to Yeovil in 2015. A fact I reported on back here. (I also reported back from those on the "BattleBus" that Cheltenham was won by the Tories and that Yeovil was looking very good. My coverage of LibDems prospects in the South-west in May 2015 was second to none on here. I believe a few brave folk made money on the back of it....whilst fair to say, some others pooh-poohed it. Their loss....)

    she lacks initiative, is over cautious, devoid of an original idea and doesn't enjoy it.
    "lacks initiative" yet somehow is Prime Minister
    "over cautious" you'd prefer someone reckless?
    "Doesn't enjoy it" she's eaten an awful lot of rubber chicken for someone who "doesn't enjoy it"

    We get it. You don't like her. But she is PM, which is more than a Lib Dem will be in our lifetime...
    I would personally not prefer her to be reckless rathervthan over cautious, but in fairness there are times when decisive action is needed and over caution can indeed be worse tgan over caution. Merkel is famously cautionand careful, up to her strikingly bold migrant announcement, and it's usually a strength, but in a few occasions in recent years she's been shown up as a ditherer unable to act, as sometimes it's a weakness.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I remember watching the ITV news channel when I first got a DigiBox in 2003. It's coverage of the Iraq War was pretty good, especially when Alastair Stewart was presenting. But the channel was never as slick as the BBC and Sky versions and I wasn't surprised when it closed down.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    AndyJS said:

    Shami Chakrabarti on Radio 4: we should consider halving the prison population.

    Cyanide pill dispensers on every Wing?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The British Council one is interesting, but appears to be looking at a shift in attitudes in this age range overseas.

    This is what it found on business:

    "BUSINESS: When asked about the impact of Brexit on plans to do business in the UK, 32 per cent of EU respondents said they were less likely to do so, six per cent were more likely. In Commonwealth countries and in the rest of the G20, 17 per cent were less likely and 15 per cent more likely."
  • Among 18-34 Year olds

    Brexit impact on attractiveness of UK

    Global:
    No difference/dk: 47
    Positive: 32
    Negative: 21

    EU (Fr/Ger/It)
    No difference/dk: 47
    Positive: 17
    Negative: 36

    Commonwealth (Aus/Can/Ind/SA)
    No difference/dk: 48
    Positive: 33
    Negative: 20

    G20 (balance G20):
    No difference/dk: 48
    Positive: 35
    Negative: 17

    So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Is it just me or are we seeing a lot more of Prince Charles than normal?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    People talk UKIP up on here but what threat are they really if they can't even put up candidates in places like Eastleigh and Dover?

    Overhead some UKIP activists about a year ago meeting in a public library not too far from Eastleigh. Decent enough people, but showing levels of delusion that make even some of the people on here sound grounded. For example they were under the impression that the local council would fund their local election campaign. Someone was actually actioned to approach the council to find out if it was paid upfront or if they had to spend the money first and claim it back. Getting support primarily from the over sixties is great from the point of view of their greater propensity to vote, but UKIP are never going to get far without an effective organisation on the ground. They might yet manage to create one, but I have no idea how they might do it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    In The Times tomorrow: HM King George VI questions Winston Churchill as to "why haven't we won the war yet...?"
  • This morning's must-read is the "Brexit six months on" report for King's College London:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hard-brexit-predicted-by-uk-in-a-changing-europe-think-tank-theresa-may-boris-johnson-new-study-single-market-no-customs-union_uk_585ba5dee4b00768ddce2fc7?rjhwmpsa558xzdunmi

    Summary, hard Brexit and the drawbridge will be pulled up, in their opinion.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498

    So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......

    It's an interesting spin that a reaction of "Brexit? Am I bovvered?" from the outside world is supposed to be a positive for us.
  • AndyJS said:

    I remember watching the ITV news channel when I first got a DigiBox in 2003. It's coverage of the Iraq War was pretty good, especially when Alastair Stewart was presenting. But the channel was never as slick as the BBC and Sky versions and I wasn't surprised when it closed down.

    IIRC Between midnight and 6AM they repeated the 11-12 hour on a loop.
    They missed an air crash in Germany which happened just after midnight.

  • @josiasjessop

    This is a very divided country, more so than any time since the eighties. NOC would force a more consensual approach to the issue that will dominate UK politics for the next decade.

    I'm not sure it is that divided: there are the hardcore Brexit loons at one extreme, and the EU Federalists on the other. These are noisy idiots and should perhaps best be ignored. But they are in the minority, despite their loud voices.

    In between are the majority of voters who voted one way or the other but, aside from niggles, have other pressing concerns that are not immediately to do with the EU.

    I voted remain. I know many people who voted remain, and many who voted leave. Do I feel 'divided' from those who voted leave? No, because I am in the fortunate position that none of them are from the loony persuasion of Brexiteers.

    I do know one rather extreme Europhile though, and it's best to avoid the topic with her ...
    I agree. Most of my friends were Remainers, but after the initial shock the overwhelming reaction was 'oh well, whats done is done, better make the best of it' and their minds have turned to other matters......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited December 2016

    So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......

    It's an interesting spin that a reaction of "Brexit? Am I bovvered?" from the outside world is supposed to be a positive for us.
    When we are told we will be pariahs, if there is no diffference that would be a positive as against that claim. It's not interesting spin, its regular spin responding to competing, negative spin.
  • So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......

    It's an interesting spin that a reaction of "Brexit? Am I bovvered?" from the outside world is supposed to be a positive for us.
    The rest of the world already has a positive view of us, and BREXIT (much as some Remoaners might wish it) does not appear to be negatively affecting that.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    edited December 2016
    @Jonathan, most prisoners are eventually released, but crime is mostly a young person's occupation. Taking them out of circulation until they've aged makes sense.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just got a thank you from the Graun (chortle). It thanked me for 25,000 responses.

    Say what???

    Also love the begging line "please help us..for less than a cup of coffee a week...". In Islington maybe...

    You've posted 25,000 times on CiF?!?
    Not by two orders of magnitude.

    Unless they count each character as a contribution.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Any idea how quickly the prison population should be halved? That would seem a crucial element.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34763339
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    This morning's must-read is the "Brexit six months on" report for King's College London:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hard-brexit-predicted-by-uk-in-a-changing-europe-think-tank-theresa-may-boris-johnson-new-study-single-market-no-customs-union_uk_585ba5dee4b00768ddce2fc7?rjhwmpsa558xzdunmi

    Summary, hard Brexit and the drawbridge will be pulled up, in their opinion.

    "The report, “Brexit: Six Months On”, gathers all the statements, hints and clues given by the Prime Minister and her ministers since the referendum on what Britain may look like once it has quit the EU in 2019."

    LOL. So based on bugger all insider information....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Moses_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34763339
    Wow - reading prison was grade 2 listed? In the picture it looks terriblely dull and mundane, not even some grand Victorian construction.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498

    @josiasjessop

    This is a very divided country, more so than any time since the eighties. NOC would force a more consensual approach to the issue that will dominate UK politics for the next decade.

    I'm not sure it is that divided: there are the hardcore Brexit loons at one extreme, and the EU Federalists on the other. These are noisy idiots and should perhaps best be ignored. But they are in the minority, despite their loud voices.

    In between are the majority of voters who voted one way or the other but, aside from niggles, have other pressing concerns that are not immediately to do with the EU.

    I voted remain. I know many people who voted remain, and many who voted leave. Do I feel 'divided' from those who voted leave? No, because I am in the fortunate position that none of them are from the loony persuasion of Brexiteers.

    I do know one rather extreme Europhile though, and it's best to avoid the topic with her ...
    I agree. Most of my friends were Remainers, but after the initial shock the overwhelming reaction was 'oh well, whats done is done, better make the best of it' and their minds have turned to other matters......
    But what's done, is not yet done...

    As you say the truth is that the majority aren't particularly passionate one way or the other, which means the more time passes since the referendum, the easier it becomes to avoid the painful decisions. If Article 50 gets delayed without incident you can reliably conclude that Brexit is not going to happen.
  • kle4 said:

    Any idea how quickly the prison population should be halved? That would seem a crucial element.

    Non custodial sentences for those sentenced for less than 12 months would make a dent into the figure.

    Much more HDC would also do the trick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    This morning's must-read is the "Brexit six months on" report for King's College London:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hard-brexit-predicted-by-uk-in-a-changing-europe-think-tank-theresa-may-boris-johnson-new-study-single-market-no-customs-union_uk_585ba5dee4b00768ddce2fc7?rjhwmpsa558xzdunmi

    Summary, hard Brexit and the drawbridge will be pulled up, in their opinion.

    "The report, “Brexit: Six Months On”, gathers all the statements, hints and clues given by the Prime Minister and her ministers since the referendum on what Britain may look like once it has quit the EU in 2019."

    LOL. So based on bugger all insider information....
    Reading the mood music is still of some worth, if perhaps less definitive. In fairness, the government has dropped hints of hard and soft brexits over the months.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    I think it was Hurd who described Prison as an expensive way of making bad people worse.

    There are real problems developing in our jails. If we are going to lock up so many then we do need to build more of them, and of more modern design.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just got a thank you from the Graun (chortle). It thanked me for 25,000 responses.

    Say what???

    Also love the begging line "please help us..for less than a cup of coffee a week...". In Islington maybe...

    You've posted 25,000 times on CiF?!?
    Not by two orders of magnitude.

    Unless they count each character as a contribution.
    Looking forward to the corrections page. "When we said 25,000, we should have said 37. Apologies for any embarrassment caused...."
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    I think it was Hurd who described Prison as an expensive way of making bad people worse.

    There are real problems developing in our jails. If we are going to lock up so many then we do need to build more of them, and of more modern design.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34763339
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    Any idea how quickly the prison population should be halved? That would seem a crucial element.

    Non custodial sentences for those sentenced for less than 12 months would make a dent into the figure.

    Much more HDC would also do the trick.

    kle4 said:

    Any idea how quickly the prison population should be halved? That would seem a crucial element.

    Non custodial sentences for those sentenced for less than 12 months would make a dent into the figure.

    Much more HDC would also do the trick.
    HDC?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I wonder whether Buckingham Palace will insist on a retraction from the Times as it did with the Sun over its "Queen backs Brexit" headline. I don't remember pb's diehard Leavers being so concerned about that story.

    Don't think Leavers are concerned about the story. Sad for the Times that it writes up a 4 month old piece of news in the present tense though.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any idea how quickly the prison population should be halved? That would seem a crucial element.

    Non custodial sentences for those sentenced for less than 12 months would make a dent into the figure.

    Much more HDC would also do the trick.

    kle4 said:

    Any idea how quickly the prison population should be halved? That would seem a crucial element.

    Non custodial sentences for those sentenced for less than 12 months would make a dent into the figure.

    Much more HDC would also do the trick.
    HDC?
    Home Detention Curfew.

    Tagging to me and you.
  • @josiasjessop

    This is a very divided country, more so than any time since the eighties. NOC would force a more consensual approach to the issue that will dominate UK politics for the next decade.

    I'm not sure it is that divided: there are the hardcore Brexit loons at one extreme, and the EU Federalists on the other. These are noisy idiots and should perhaps best be ignored. But they are in the minority, despite their loud voices.

    In between are the majority of voters who voted one way or the other but, aside from niggles, have other pressing concerns that are not immediately to do with the EU.

    I voted remain. I know many people who voted remain, and many who voted leave. Do I feel 'divided' from those who voted leave? No, because I am in the fortunate position that none of them are from the loony persuasion of Brexiteers.

    I do know one rather extreme Europhile though, and it's best to avoid the topic with her ...
    I agree. Most of my friends were Remainers, but after the initial shock the overwhelming reaction was 'oh well, whats done is done, better make the best of it' and their minds have turned to other matters......
    To be honest, the EU is a bit of a proxy. The issues we have are really with each other, not with our membership.

    Taking them at their word, barely a year ago, TSE was flirting heavily with Leave, Richard Nabavi was undecided (had sympathy with Brexit, but was looking for a credible path out), and even Alastair Meeks was on the fence.

    Yes, there are a few ideological British Europhiles (mainly social democrats) but I can't imagine they number - at most - more than 20% of the population.

    Brexit will succeed (or fail) for everyone else depending upon the UK's medium-long term economic success, the values it projects forward globally into the future, and what sort of society we build at home.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    I think it was Hurd who described Prison as an expensive way of making bad people worse.
    Ironically the cheaper way to make bad people worse is to elect them to parliament.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just got a thank you from the Graun (chortle). It thanked me for 25,000 responses.

    Say what???

    Also love the begging line "please help us..for less than a cup of coffee a week...". In Islington maybe...

    You've posted 25,000 times on CiF?!?
    Not by two orders of magnitude.

    Unless they count each character as a contribution.
    Looking forward to the corrections page. "When we said 25,000, we should have said 37. Apologies for any embarrassment caused...."
    For a while my speciality was to be first or nearly first commenting on Polly's articles.

    My comment would be something along the lines of "hypocrite...patronising...clueless...naive..." ie as with a response to any of her articles, stating the bleedin' obvious.

    Which would then get hundreds of recommendations before being moderated, possibly when La Toynbee herself noticed it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    I think it was Hurd who described Prison as an expensive way of making bad people worse.
    Ironically the cheaper way to make bad people worse is to elect them to parliament.
    I don't actually believe that, I have more respect for parliamentarians than most do, but it was too obvious to pass up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    I think something we can all take a little joy from at this time of year is how wretched a year La Toynbee has had!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    @MarqueeMark she does sound depressed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    All of which are getting released anyway.

    The Tories have broken prisons.
    I think it was Hurd who described Prison as an expensive way of making bad people worse.
    Ironically the cheaper way to make bad people worse is to elect them to parliament.
    The way to keep prison numbers even higher is to elect them as UKIP MEP's.....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......

    It's an interesting spin that a reaction of "Brexit? Am I bovvered?" from the outside world is supposed to be a positive for us.
    It is. Continuity Remain @AlastairMeeks was arguing only yesterday that people abroad see Brexit Britain as the epitomy of evil.

    They are shrugging and saying that it makes no difference - the impact of leaving the EU isn't a negative.

    Clear positive for Brexit.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Prisons should move away from direct punishment to a corrective model including social awareness and retraining for productive work when released. That is happening to a point across the board but seems to be more voluntary.

    Reoffending is also a large part of the problem and if that is removed by even a small % then pressure will start to ease over time. It's still not a silver bullet, problems will remain but it will require a slightly different outlook from the "flog 'em hang 'em" groups and others to make the step changes necessary
  • You could reduce the prison population also by sorting stuff like this. I think there's 5,000 people on IPP.

    James Ward was given a 10-month IPP for arson in 2006. Now nearly 10 years on, he is still inside and has no release date.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/36410539
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited December 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just got a thank you from the Graun (chortle). It thanked me for 25,000 responses.

    Say what???

    Also love the begging line "please help us..for less than a cup of coffee a week...". In Islington maybe...

    You've posted 25,000 times on CiF?!?
    Not by two orders of magnitude.

    Unless they count each character as a contribution.
    Well if that's how they do their accounting...
  • John Curtice (previously linked report):

    To many in the EU, the British public’s apparent desire to retain free trade while no longer granting freedom of movement will seem like a wish to have their cake and eat it. An alternative view, however, is that many people in the UK – including some who voted ‘Remain’ – reject the EU’s recipe for baking the cake in the first place. For them, freedom of movement as currently implemented in the EU is not a necessary concomitant to free trade. None of this is likely to make it easier for the UK Government to secure a deal that is welcomed by a majority of voters, in what looks like a country just as divided as it was six months ago.
  • My opinion would be that a 'prison record' shouldn't exist, apart from sexual and violent offences. If you do the time, then your record should be clean, and you should be able to then get a job.

    If you've got a prison record, then chances are no ones going to touch you jobwise and then you're just going to go back to crime.
  • Sean_F said:

    @MarqueeMark she does sound depressed.

    Just think how Eddie Izzard feels this year..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    edited December 2016
    Charles said:

    So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......

    It's an interesting spin that a reaction of "Brexit? Am I bovvered?" from the outside world is supposed to be a positive for us.
    It is. Continuity Remain @AlastairMeeks was arguing only yesterday that people abroad see Brexit Britain as the epitomy of evil.

    They are shrugging and saying that it makes no difference - the impact of leaving the EU isn't a negative.

    Clear positive for Brexit.
    It has more in common with how the world would react to a declaration of independence from Tasmania, than, say, the absorption of the DPRK by South Korea.

    A historic moment signalling the beginning of the end of the EU it is turning out not to be.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    Moses_ said:

    Prisons should move away from direct punishment to a corrective model including social awareness and retraining for productive work when released. That is happening to a point across the board but seems to be more voluntary.

    Reoffending is also a large part of the problem and if that is removed by even a small % then pressure will start to ease over time. It's still not a silver bullet, problems will remain but it will require a slightly different outlook from the "flog 'em hang 'em" groups and others to make the step changes necessary

    +1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Charles said:

    So, not surprisingly, the only people we've upset are those who'll have to pay more now we're leaving our immediate neighbours. But the bigger lesson is even among the most pro-EU demographic - for nearly the majority, it makes no difference.......

    It's an interesting spin that a reaction of "Brexit? Am I bovvered?" from the outside world is supposed to be a positive for us.
    It is. Continuity Remain @AlastairMeeks was arguing only yesterday that people abroad see Brexit Britain as the epitomy of evil.

    They are shrugging and saying that it makes no difference - the impact of leaving the EU isn't a negative.

    Clear positive for Brexit.
    It has more in common with how the world would react to a declaration of independence from Tasmania, than, say, the absorption of the DPRK with South Korea.

    A historic moment signalling the beginning of the end of the EU it is turning out not to be.
    Not everyone who voted leave wanted the moment to be the beginning of the end for the eu. Some didn't like where it was headed and thought it better for both sides for us to get off now. Yes, some people expect, some even hope, the eu will fall, but the millions of normal people who voted but are not super intense about things, I would think more likely do not mind what path the eu takes, except insofar as it impacts us.
  • We know that a shockingly high proportion of those sent to prison have been in care, and/or used drugs. Both are areas which have been on an improving limb.

    Drug offences in particular are problematic because we send non-violent offenders into an institution with people we'd really rather they didn't emulate.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Let's see

    @SkyNews report that #Berlin suspect shot dead in Milan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    At least wham shami talks about prisons and the like, rather than corbyn fangirling, whether one agrees with her ideas or not she gets more engaged responses.
  • John Curtice (previously linked report):

    To many in the EU, the British public’s apparent desire to retain free trade while no longer granting freedom of movement will seem like a wish to have their cake and eat it. An alternative view, however, is that many people in the UK – including some who voted ‘Remain’ – reject the EU’s recipe for baking the cake in the first place. For them, freedom of movement as currently implemented in the EU is not a necessary concomitant to free trade. None of this is likely to make it easier for the UK Government to secure a deal that is welcomed by a majority of voters, in what looks like a country just as divided as it was six months ago.

    Just start reading the report and picked up on this one as well. Does seem to sum up things.

    It is interesting to reflect that the EU's downfall may well be its inability to be flexible or respond to changing conditions about its precious four freedoms. I'm a Remainer who has and had real concerns about mass migration. The UK is not the only country where free movement has become an issue and has got tangled up with refugees and associated issues.

    France next. They will 'blow up' the whole thing in my opinion.
  • @rottenborough

    "It is interesting to reflect that the EU's downfall may well be its inability to be flexible or respond to changing conditions about its precious four freedoms. I'm a Remainer who has and had real concerns about mass migration. The UK is not the only country where free movement has become an issue and has got tangled up with refugees and associated issues."

    I agree completely.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2016
    Sean_F said:

    @AndyJS,

    In order to halve the prison population, we'd have to release a lot of very harmful people.

    Could lawyery type people say what happened around 1995 that caused the prison population to surge? Same thing happened in both Scotland and England.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04334/SN04334.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwis_tmwgIrRAhVReFAKHeZGDjEQFggaMAA&usg=AFQjCNF0BJFG90CjHExdMAEEdiVgFB0C2Q&sig2=kGUvV_LtE6R0S2mLtbI7zw
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696

    I agree. Most of my friends were Remainers, but after the initial shock the overwhelming reaction was 'oh well, whats done is done, better make the best of it' and their minds have turned to other matters......

    I'll post it again because it's still true. As I see it 15-20% of people are hardcore Remainers who will be upset with any kind of leave. Even if it is to the customs union. That's because they are wedded to the political project and believe that the UK's place in the world is at the centre if of the EU, they would also like us to join the Eurozone and eventually the single European state. There is another 15-20% of people who are on the opposite end of the spectrum, they won't be happy with any leave except for to WTO trading terms, import tariffs and leaving the ECHR, or moving to some observer member status in which it can cast no binding judgements in the UK. The rest of the 60-70% of people just don't care.

    The problem is that on PB and in the wider Westminster and press bubble we only ever hear from the each side of the 30-40%. The argument is being driven by the extremes while the majority of the country wants a reasonable settlement which could be anything from staying in the customs union or leaving the single market but agreeing mutual recognition of goods standards and zero tariffs.

    Until the government serves A50 middling-brexit won't get a hearing because the 30-40% are in a perpetual mud-slinging match via their favourite present outlets. One side trying desperately to find a means to stop Brexit and the other desperately trying to find a way to force the PM into exiting to the WTO and putting up tariff barriers to the EU.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,587
    GDP growth revised up again again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    John Curtice (previously linked report):

    To many in the EU, the British public’s apparent desire to retain free trade while no longer granting freedom of movement will seem like a wish to have their cake and eat it. An alternative view, however, is that many people in the UK – including some who voted ‘Remain’ – reject the EU’s recipe for baking the cake in the first place. For them, freedom of movement as currently implemented in the EU is not a necessary concomitant to free trade. None of this is likely to make it easier for the UK Government to secure a deal that is welcomed by a majority of voters, in what looks like a country just as divided as it was six months ago.

    Just start reading the report and picked up on this one as well. Does seem to sum up things.

    It is interesting to reflect that the EU's downfall may well be its inability to be flexible or respond to changing conditions about its precious four freedoms. I'm a Remainer who has and had real concerns about mass migration. The UK is not the only country where free movement has become an issue and has got tangled up with refugees and associated issues.

    France next. They will 'blow up' the whole thing in my opinion.
    Lack of flexibility was key for many. I'm a leaver not particularly concerned about mass migration, but I'm unusual, as you say many remainers had and have concerns about it, even if people decided leaving the eu would not solve the issue or would be too high a price. The eu needs to at least look flexible I think, although unless we make an obvious success of things, and given lower skepticism in other places, it has more time and a higher bar of issues before it becomes a more serious problem.
  • That link doesn't work Alistair
This discussion has been closed.