politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?
Well this a headline I thought I'd never see. Liam Fox talking about remaining in the customs union. https://t.co/dDfzc2hy7T pic.twitter.com/t05fz3G3WB
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Perhaps you really are a LibDem!
80% of our giant ballooning trade deficit is with the EU, the reason why I'm a Leaver is that EU membership and Free Trade with the Eurozone is harming the economy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38358177
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38356058
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38341539
and the above only on one BBC page today. Merry Christmas all.
I'm off to watch Yesterday channel Secrets of War - narrated by Charlton Heston - what a fabulous voice he had.
For those who are sick to death of Brexit - have some Ben Hur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frE9rXnaHpE
This leaves two questions then. #1 How quickly do europhobes scream betrayal and say the reason Brexit didn't produce Magic Unicorns is because Brexit didn't really happen ? #2 How will the Europeans respond to this extraordinary admission of the weakness of our negotiating position ?
IMHO the answers to that are #1 Immediately #2 demand *net* contrabutions to the EU budget so close the existing ones as to represent national humiliation.
Which doesn't mean Methadone Brexit as opposed to Cold Turkey Brexit won't be met with relief by people like me. We are where we are.
Didn't listen to the Fox interview as I have better things to do with my life. The truth is therefore that Nissan carries more weight with HMG than the 17 million or so LEAVE voters and the terms that work for Nissan will have to work for all of us whether we like it or not.
It's a sell out and many of us saw it coming. If we have to stay in some form of Single Market relationship, if we have to accept some migration, if we have to continue paying into the EU, that will be a price worth paying to keep Nissan and its jobs and factories here.
The deal which satisfies no one might be the best deal for Britain but I'm not the one who has to sell it to the electorate.
usual nonsense
Future elected governments will be more integrated or less so with the EU in the same way a Lab govt may be less inclined to deal with a republican POTUS than a Tory, and vice versa w a Democrat. They will just be a foreign country who we have a ever changing relationship with like any other
nah across the board, even Osborne was trying to pretend he cared yesterday.
Fox will accept cabinet decision.
Will EU accept cabinet decision?
Thought not - it is a negotiation.
Instead they believe in the collective responsibility of cabinet and decisions arrived at by deliberation by cabinet committee.
Yearning for the days of sofa government with no minutes?
You really shouldn't believe all the things you say about the May government.
Grown ups? Who knew?
To reply to Recidivist on the last thread, the evidence of a surge in EU support on the Continent after Brexit was a series of polls showing a sharp upturn - I remember one in Denmark and there were at least two in other countries. Insofar as Brexit is being discussed in the Continental media, it's in terms of being a difficult mess for Britain, so floating voters are presumably feeling that they don't want one of those, thanks. It doesn't mean they suddenly think the EU is wonderul, just that abruptly pushing off sounds unattractive.
Anecdotally, two friends in finance are invsting heavily in Euro stocks, on the basis that they expect Merkel and the French centre-right to win and think the Euro will jump after that. DYOR, obviosly, but I think they're right about the politics of it.
- Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
- Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
- Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
- Depression: Just make it go away.
- Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.
I'm tired of this never ending Brexit discussion.
Mr. Glenn, people often get bored when there's saturation coverage (cf Sky News and court cases).
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2016/12/spinning-scottish-budget.html?m=1
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/roles.html
It's a good sport for betting.
Ho hum.
3:33PM
Jason said:
Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.
Is there a reverse Kubler-Ross for the stages of realisation after making impossible plans?
- Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
- Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
- Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
- Depression: Just make it go away.
- Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.
**
Or a whole Brexit-free week, followed by another, with only one day per week of bloody Brexit ...
We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.
I agree there would be opposition to a second referendum NOW but no one is suggesting that. The proposal is for a second referendum on the result of the A50 negotiations so the earliest likely date for such a vote would be spring 2019 which is a lifetime away.
I strongly suspect the mood for a second referendum will grow as the A50 negotiations commence and proceed and especially as the direction of travel becomes clear. Inevitably since at the moment in lieu of anything else everyone can believe the Government is moving in their preferred direction, the reality will leave some disappointed and angry.
The place is a notable tourist attraction for foreigners from North America, Europe and the Middle East.
FPTP may save us, but it could be a rocky ride.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/81839/liam-fox-cites-turkey-hint-uk-could-remain-part
Enthusiasm
Panic
Search for the guilty
Punishment of the innocent
Praise and honours for the uninvolved.
At present, there are hypothetical paths away from Brexit, but very little to indicate they are remotely plausible, and even if they were, whether it would be a good idea given we so publicly repudiated the EU and all it stands for.
So long as the sky does not cave in with the deal we do get, that will be sufficient for most people. The prospect of a terrible deal will not sway the majority, as it didn't convince in the first place.
A pleasant evening to all.
But it does get wearisome. And adds very little light to the discussion.
2) I did think about talking about the UK's withdrawal method and it being flaccid, but I'm a paragon of virtue
3) There's an AV thread being published tonight
I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/810515948000202752
The one Trump condemned as undemocratic or the one Dems now deride in the same terms? Funny how winning or losing changes your perspective.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php
Interesting story about Jezza. But why wait until 2019?
French monarchists tend to be very conservative in general.
*and would hasten my £150 payout on him as first out of the Cabinet
Pedantry aside, "flaccid" (like "engorged") is usually used on a penile context and not in any other. Deflated bouncy castles or cushions are rarely called "flaccid", but deflated or saggy columns are, usually with a "fnarr-fnarr" as subtext.
Pause.
Well, you did ask...
The torrent of blood flowing from millions slashing their wrists.
I find his analysis in the comments great reading.
A report of the boozy sing-song in the Mail on Sunday stated that Corbyn walked out with his shadow chancellor John McDonnell, shadow attorney general Shami Chakrabarti and Richard Burgon.
Also on the rebellious MP's playlist were Madonna’s classic hit “Like a Virgin” — a nod to the Virgin trains incident when Corbyn claimed there were no seats and was filmed sitting on the floor, and The Beatles “Back in the USSR” — a presumed dig at him for failing to take a tougher stance against Russia’s bombing of Aleppo in Syria."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/12/jeremy-corbyn-walks-out-labour-christmas-party-where-mps-sung-tony-blairs
Politicising the head of state as they do in the US or France as examples diminishes a nation.
So as not to get your hopes up. And to give Theresa May time to call a snap election with him still in place.
I think by this you reveal far more about yourself than about the meaning or usage of this word.
"flac·cid
ˈfla(k)səd/Submit
adjective
(of part of the body) soft and hanging loosely or limply, especially so as to look or feel unpleasant.
"she took his flaccid hand in hers"
synonyms: soft, loose, flabby, slack, lax; More
antonyms: firm
(of plant tissue) drooping or inelastic through lack of water.
lacking force or effectiveness.
"the flaccid leadership campaign was causing concern"
synonyms: lackluster, lifeless, listless, uninspiring, unanimated, tame, dull, vapid
"his play seemed flaccid"
Once the referendum was on, party loyalty no longer counted.
Now that we're back to politics as usual, neither Lab or Con will feel inclined to insert a Ref2 into their manifesto (Con have, for the moment, lanced the UKIP boil, and Labour are going through a, possibly doomed, rebuilding process and are out of the loop for another parliamentary cycle). The LDs might, and they *might* get another coalition out of it, and use it as a bargaining chip to form a government (like with the AV vote) and maybe of Brexit starts to seriously drag on, this might proof fruitful.
I would start thinking of themselves as 'UKIP in reverse'. Given the age split of the Referendum Vote, the LibDems should stand on a platform of another referendum to 'rejoin' the EU following Brexit. This would be something positive to get behind, give us a few years whilst the EU weathers (or doesn't) a variety of other Brexit-style votes, and allows a lot more young people to grow up and get politically involved with a positive re-engagement with Europe. It might take ten years, but time is the best lever...
Though one electoral sage made this prediction about Morley & Outwood in July 2007:
" I think Labour will win here but suspect it could be closer than expected – say 2000 majority.
Balls strikes me as something of a cold fish and will struggle in an area like this filled with ambitious, independently minded working class voters.
Long term this will be won by the Conservatives the next time they win an overall majority. "
It is an outstanding game. Be interesting to see if The Last of Us 2 can give it a run for its money. And I do hope they make another (I think we will get a Witcher 4, but it may have either another main character *or* a make-your-own-witcher approach).
Turgid.
Such a great word. Almost onomatopoeic. So much potential.
I have to say I've gone off Naughty Dog a little bit, I didn't enjoy Uncharted 4 as much as I thought I would and their games feel far too scripted now. It's as if the game is just letting you interact with the environment a little bit to advance the story rather than the player advancing the story by interacting with the environment.
On the DLC, might be worth looking out for the GOTY edition, I bought it for £20 just now from Amazon and get £8 from CEX for my ordinary edition with no DLC. Worked out to £12 for both DLCs in the end vs £24 for both from PSN.
Agree that combat is the only obvious area for improvement in The Witcher 3.
I have mixed views on creating your own character. Generally, I really like it, but CD Projekt Red did such a good job with the defined character of Geralt that it may be better sticking with that approach (not to mention, most RPGs have a make-your-own style).
Only played the first two Uncharted games. Played the most recent Tomb Raiders, and enjoyed both of those, though.
Yeah, I've been looking to do that, but it's a time/money issue as well as timing it right (the edition keeps appearing and disappearing and I don't have much cash to spare at the moment).
Others will be better placed than me to judge. Assessing hardliners and moderates on the Europhobic right is like assessing hardliners and moderates in the Iranian government.
General Buck Turgidson
If you hear someone knocking on your door in the early hours, don't answer it (perhaps check through the window).
It may be a gang with club/knives trying to get your car keys.
Edited extra bit: anyway, time for me to be off.