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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332

    Mr. Max, CEX?

    Yeah, I've been looking to do that, but it's a time/money issue as well as timing it right (the edition keeps appearing and disappearing and I don't have much cash to spare at the moment).

    Second hand tech store which takes game trade-ins.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Any musingson the SPOTY?

    I think Bale for a top 3 finish is value, lots of Welsh voters and 11 on Betfair. Max Whitlock also value for a top 3 perhaps.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Public Service Announcement (as I think there's at least one other chap in the Morley & Outwood constituency here):
    If you hear someone knocking on your door in the early hours, don't answer it (perhaps check through the window).

    It may be a gang with club/knives trying to get your car keys.

    Edited extra bit: anyway, time for me to be off.

    I thought you were going to say it was Ed Balls...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Farage continues his quest for a role in the Trump administration.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38355108
  • yay!!!!!!!
  • Any musingson the SPOTY?

    I think Bale for a top 3 finish is value, lots of Welsh voters and 11 on Betfair. Max Whitlock also value for a top 3 perhaps.

    Muzza to win for those who have him at evens and need a win after missing out on Ore!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    I'm sure political calculus had the replacement seat for morley and outwood going red again after the boundary changes. Think that was on GE2015 polling figures tho and corbyns probs affected those.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Nearly time for tonight's Bond film on ITV4 - 'Brexit is Forever' (or something like that)

    I assume that 'The Great Escape' is also a Brexit themed film.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Any musingson the SPOTY?

    I think Bale for a top 3 finish is value, lots of Welsh voters and 11 on Betfair. Max Whitlock also value for a top 3 perhaps.

    Muzza to win for those who have him at evens and need a win after missing out on Ore!
    Would Spurs fans vote Bale still?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited December 2016

    Any musingson the SPOTY?

    I think Bale for a top 3 finish is value, lots of Welsh voters and 11 on Betfair. Max Whitlock also value for a top 3 perhaps.

    Is this inside info that there is no Leicester campaign for Vardy?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    not much of one that I am aware of on the message boards.

    Surely team of the season though?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Team of the season? Team Brexit, surely!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    How's that Gloriously Socialist Brexit thing working out for ya?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,419

    Nearly time for tonight's Bond film on ITV4 - 'Brexit is Forever' (or something like that)

    I assume that 'The Great Escape' is also a Brexit themed film.

    Maybe "You only vote twice"?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    .
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Good King TSE looked out
    On the pb website
    That night AV was talked about
    With long posts, all o’er trite.
    Dimly shone the thread that night
    And ripostes all were cruel
    E’en so the interest was slight
    Most of the thread, thin gruel.

    "Oh God, AV is tiresome now
    And SeanT’s cursing’s stronger.
    Fails my heart, I know not how,
    I can go no longer."
    "Keep the links, bookmark the page,
    Make your comments boldly
    Thou shalt find fellow posters’ rage
    Freeze thy blood less coldly."

    Along the AV trail they plod,
    Agreed what had been hinted.
    AV, they argued, off should sod -
    Their thoughts could not be printed.
    Therefore, you posters, all be sure
    Wealth or rank possessing
    Ye who now AV ignore,
    Shall yourselves find blessing
  • Any musingson the SPOTY?

    I think Bale for a top 3 finish is value, lots of Welsh voters and 11 on Betfair. Max Whitlock also value for a top 3 perhaps.

    Muzza to win for those who have him at evens and need a win after missing out on Ore!
    Would Spurs fans vote Bale still?
    I would for sure - but then I've got £££ on Sir Muzza - so it's him all the way.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    edited December 2016
    In a parallel universe Mo Farah should be hosing up on achievements but questions hanging against him...

    But sadly Murray is a shoo in again.

    I'd like Brownlee or one of the Kennys
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    O/T: Rogue One is superb!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MrsB said:

    Good King TSE looked out
    On the pb website
    That night AV was talked about
    With long posts, all o’er trite.
    Dimly shone the thread that night
    And ripostes all were cruel
    E’en so the interest was slight
    Most of the thread, thin gruel.

    "Oh God, AV is tiresome now
    And SeanT’s cursing’s stronger.
    Fails my heart, I know not how,
    I can go no longer."
    "Keep the links, bookmark the page,
    Make your comments boldly
    Thou shalt find fellow posters’ rage
    Freeze thy blood less coldly."

    Along the AV trail they plod,
    Agreed what had been hinted.
    AV, they argued, off should sod -
    Their thoughts could not be printed.
    Therefore, you posters, all be sure
    Wealth or rank possessing
    Ye who now AV ignore,
    Shall yourselves find blessing

    applause!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Beeb teeing Murray up by having him on near the end too..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Any musingson the SPOTY?

    I think Bale for a top 3 finish is value, lots of Welsh voters and 11 on Betfair. Max Whitlock also value for a top 3 perhaps.

    Muzza to win for those who have him at evens and need a win after missing out on Ore!
    Would Spurs fans vote Bale still?
    I would for sure - but then I've got £££ on Sir Muzza - so it's him all the way.
    I have gone for a top 3 place. at 11's, but only for £2
  • Morris Dancer, thanks for the tip off about the bad guys out and about in Morley, much appreciated.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    @Monksfield - I hate that, and I hate it because it works. I do in fact now believe that Claire Balding is vaguely important, and yet I think we can all hang on to the anchor in life that she's just a quite average and uninteresting person.

    The Beeb is both loathsome and outstanding.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    Is he British or Scottish tonight though?

    ;-)
  • Laura Trott/Kenny is my local superstar and I wouldn't mind her taking my money and that was before I knew she was a Spurs fan.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited December 2016
    Murray probably wins because there is no obvious "anti" candidate.

    Skelton, Kenny (Both of them), Whitlock ... split field allows Murray through the middle.
  • Laura Trott/Kenny is my local superstar and I wouldn't mind her taking my money and that was before I knew she was a Spurs fan.

    I've backed Laura Trott a while back.

    Definitely won't win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    The figure to watch is past vote recollection in the polls. If pollsters start finding fewer and fewer people who say they voted Leave, you know the mood has changed.

    That figure will be amusing - come 10 years when the success or not of Brexit is clear, I am very certain the voter recollection will bear very little relation to reality.
  • NEW THREAD

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    The figure to watch is past vote recollection in the polls. If pollsters start finding fewer and fewer people who say they voted Leave, you know the mood has changed.

    That figure will be amusing - come 10 years when the success or not of Brexit is clear, I am very certain the voter recollection will bear very little relation to reality.

    Good point to watch, though need to watch for differential mortality.

    Success has many arents, but failure is an orphan.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    I'm sure political calculus had the replacement seat for morley and outwood going red again after the boundary changes. Think that was on GE2015 polling figures tho and corbyns probs affected those.

    That's right: Electoral Calculus have the new Batley and Morley as having a notional 2015 Labour majority of almost 5,000 (9.5 percentage points).

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/calcwork.py?seat=Batley and Morley

    Adjusting for the current national polling average makes it much closer - Labour are predicted to win the new seat by one percentage point or about 500 votes. It would be Labour's 170th-safest seat according to their calculations.

    http://tinyurl.com/glvrv9x
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146

    NEW THREAD

    Where is it, please? It's not appearing on my Vanilla list.
This discussion has been closed.