politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An indication that we’re heading for a very flaccid Brexit?

I would like a deal that would limit EU imports to Britain, I don't think the customs union does this.

80% of our giant ballooning trade deficit is with the EU, the reason why I'm a Leaver is that EU membership and Free Trade with the Eurozone is harming the economy.

I think TSE is right to spot ths as the story of the day. It all goes back to the Nissan letter and why the government is hiding it. The broad assurrence that a continental exporter like Nissan wouldn't be worse off as a result of Brexit is a collosall contingent liability. The only way it can't be called in is via a slow Brexit as much as a Soft one.

This leaves two questions then. #1 How quickly do europhobes scream betrayal and say the reason Brexit didn't produce Magic Unicorns is because Brexit didn't really happen ? #2 How will the Europeans respond to this extraordinary admission of the weakness of our negotiating position ?

IMHO the answers to that are #1 Immediately #2 demand *net* contrabutions to the EU budget so close the existing ones as to represent national humiliation.

Which doesn't mean Methadone Brexit as opposed to Cold Turkey Brexit won't be met with relief by people like me. We are where we are.

Charles said:

Tory unity and belief in constitutional government surprises you @TSE?

Perhaps you really are a LibDem!

Tory unity on matters related to the European Union does surprise me.

Afternoon all

Didn't listen to the Fox interview as I have better things to do with my life. The truth is therefore that Nissan carries more weight with HMG than the 17 million or so LEAVE voters and the terms that work for Nissan will have to work for all of us whether we like it or not.

It's a sell out and many of us saw it coming. If we have to stay in some form of Single Market relationship, if we have to accept some migration, if we have to continue paying into the EU, that will be a price worth paying to keep Nissan and its jobs and factories here.

The deal which satisfies no one might be the best deal for Britain but I'm not the one who has to sell it to the electorate.

ho hum

usual nonsense

Alanbrooke said:

ho hum

usual nonsense

From Liam Fox? Well that wouldn't be unprecedented

@TSE

nah across the board, even Osborne was trying to pretend he cared yesterday.

FPT:

PlatoSaid said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I had to do a double take at seeing the Mayhew get mentioned on here. It's where we adopted our cat ten years ago.

@Stark_Dawning LOL at the shade you've just thrown at people on this site.

Mayhew were the subject of their own TV documentary series - why is it a surprise they're well known? Think it was on ITV last year or so.

RE the Mayhew documentary. I wasn't aware of that. Hopefully ITV show it again.

Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

Yes, that's an interesting interview. It possibly reflects the fact that most people (52%) like the idea of Brexit, but don't necessarily care about the details. Most people are IMO just getting on with their lives. They don't want another referendum, or a deal that upends their existence, and any vaguely reasonable-sounding deal that gets us more or less outside the EU without disaster will be OK with them.

To reply to Recidivist on the last thread, the evidence of a surge in EU support on the Continent after Brexit was a series of polls showing a sharp upturn - I remember one in Denmark and there were at least two in other countries. Insofar as Brexit is being discussed in the Continental media, it's in terms of being a difficult mess for Britain, so floating voters are presumably feeling that they don't want one of those, thanks. It doesn't mean they suddenly think the EU is wonderul, just that abruptly pushing off sounds unattractive.

Anecdotally, two friends in finance are invsting heavily in Euro stocks, on the basis that they expect Merkel and the French centre-right to win and think the Euro will jump after that. DYOR, obviosly, but I think they're right about the politics of it.

williamglenn said:

in the end the sensible will stand up and say that it's not worth it.

So far, by 61:39 they're saying don't ask us again we've given you our answer....

Jason said:

Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

I actually agree with this.

I'm tired of this never ending Brexit discussion.

Seems to me more likely after this that Aaron Banks will set up some kind of Faragist populist party than it did yesterday. Fox will be on the hit list.

SNP Government caught being dodgy more than a little selective in presentation of funding from Westminster:

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2016/12/spinning-scottish-budget.html?m=1

Electoral College meets tomorrow to sign the certificates for POTUS:

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/roles.html

Ms. Apocalypse, then it's a glaring omission in your education that must be rectified

It's a good sport for betting.

williamglenn Posts: 7,286
3:33PM

Jason said:

Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

Is there a reverse Kubler-Ross for the stages of realisation after making impossible plans?

- Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
- Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
- Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
- Depression: Just make it go away.
- Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.

**
Or a whole Brexit-free week, followed by another, with only one day per week of bloody Brexit ...

We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

rural_voter said:

We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.

williamglenn said:

rural_voter said:

We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.

You think millions of people are going to do that? You do know about the stubborness of human nature and sticking with something long after one should abandon it? It's practically why we have political parties which people stay with for decades even as they change beyond all recognition in that time.

One or two people hanging their metaphorical hats on yesterday's polling suggesting a majority opposed to a second referendum.

I agree there would be opposition to a second referendum NOW but no one is suggesting that. The proposal is for a second referendum on the result of the A50 negotiations so the earliest likely date for such a vote would be spring 2019 which is a lifetime away.

I strongly suspect the mood for a second referendum will grow as the A50 negotiations commence and proceed and especially as the direction of travel becomes clear. Inevitably since at the moment in lieu of anything else everyone can believe the Government is moving in their preferred direction, the reality will leave some disappointed and angry.

CarlottaVance said:

rottenborough said:

Seems to me more likely after this that Aaron Banks will set up some kind of Faragist populist party than it did yesterday. Fox will be on the hit list.

I agree with Nick Palmer - most voters think 'we're leaving the EU (decision taken, don't ask us again) and if what emerges looks reasonably fair they'll accept it - only the philes and phobes will scream from their little corners......and if Mr Banks wants to set the Peoples' Front of Brexit on the Brexit Peoples' Front no one will care....

We shall see. I think/worry that we are seriously underestimating the potential in these febrile times for the English People's Party or whatever.

FPTP may save us, but it could be a rocky ride.

williamglenn said:

Jason said:

Can we have a Brexit free day here, every week, in 2017? Honestly, I'm losing the will to live. TEDIOUS.

Is there a reverse Kubler-Ross for the stages of realisation after making impossible plans?

- Euphoria: We're going to do it! Nothing can stop us now!
- Apprehension: It really is harder than we thought but we'll get there!
- Boredom: I don't want to hear about it anymore.
- Depression: Just make it go away.
- Acceptance: Only an idiot would want to do that. We're content as we are.

The phases of a project:

Enthusiasm

Panic

Search for the guilty

Punishment of the innocent

Praise and honours for the uninvolved.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

I think there's a lot of projection among the Remoaners.....

Yes, I fear their obsession with hard Brexits is definitely telling.

But it does get wearisome. And adds very little light to the discussion.

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

rural_voter said:

We can discuss important stuff: the housing crisis, the collapsing NHS, the ruinous current account deficit, the useless Opposition etc.

Politics will be consumed by Brexit until the people who thought they wanted it definitively abandon the idea. There's no way to avoid this.

You think millions of people are going to do that? You do know about the stubborness of human nature and sticking with something long after one should abandon it? It's practically why we have political parties which people stay with for decades even as they change beyond all recognition in that time.

I think the vast majority of people who voted in the referendum did so without having any tribal loyalty to one side or the other, and are quite capable of mentally rewriting history to swap sides. The figure to watch is past vote recollection in the polls. If pollsters start finding fewer and fewer people who say they voted Leave, you know the mood has changed.

"I think we're all tired of Brexit discussion ..."

I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

in the end the sensible will stand up and say that it's not worth it.

So far, by 61:39 they're saying don't ask us again we've given you our answer....

You have to remember that in a Remainer's worldview only the 39 count as "sensible"

rottenborough said:

Electoral College meets tomorrow to sign the certificates for POTUS:

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/roles.html

Yes but which electoral college?

The one Trump condemned as undemocratic or the one Dems now deride in the same terms? Funny how winning or losing changes your perspective.

HurstLlama said:

"I think we're all tired of Brexit discussion ..."

I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

I agree. The Leavers' 'How we won the referendum' and 'How useless Dave ran the worst campaign in the history of the planet' have been milked to death. But ancient history aside, Brexit and its implications will be the defining issue of the decade ahead - more so possibly than industrial relations were to the 1970s and nuclear disarmament was to the 1980s. This was never going to be a small thing. We are now all Brexit's children.

HurstLlama said:

I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php

They can achieve that by honouring the Treaty of Troyes.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, who would they have as monarch?

I don't think that was polled, but the highest level of support for the idea was among supporters of the FN at 55%.

# Simply AV-ing a wonderful Brexit time #

Interesting story about Jezza. But why wait until 2019?

When pushed on the issue, Fox said that he would 'argue his case in Cabinet', but carefully avoided saying exactly what his case was. If indeed he would resign over remaining fully in the CU, he realises that saying so on Marr isn't going to go down well.*

*and would hasten my £150 payout on him as first out of the Cabinet

CarlottaVance said:

Liam Fox had a more elegant metaphor 'its not a boiled egg'.....

Many words may be used to describe Liam Fox. "Elegant"...is not one of them.

It would seem that pragmatism has overtaken the brexiters

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

I see my plea for an end of the sexual metaphor for Brexit this morning has fallen on deaf ears.

I think there's a lot of projection among the Remoaners.....

Yes, I fear their obsession with hard Brexits is definitely telling.

Liam Fox had a more elegant metaphor 'its not a boiled egg'.....

Brexit is like a box of chocolates, you think that you have picked carefully, but it turns out to be the coffee cream.

Can Chris from Paris be persuaded to write something on the French presidential election?
I find his analysis in the comments great reading.

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

I don't know who we are, but as far as I am concerned the constant repeating of the same points from the same small group of people is certainly killing this site.

How about this for a change of topic: 40% of the French think that a return to a monarchy would be good for national unity.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2016/09/02/31001-20160902ARTFIG00331-frederic-rouvillois-pourquoi-les-francais-sont-nostalgiques-de-la-monarchie.php

I do think a proper constitutional monarchy is a great asset to a country. Obviously (I hope) I am not in favour of a return to monarchs with executive powers but a non political head of state who can represent the whole country and command the respect of all its peoples irrespective of their narrow political views is, I believe, a great advantage.

Politicising the head of state as they do in the US or France as examples diminishes a nation.

Surbiton.. is that a fake news story?

Dr. Foxinsox, I really like coffee cream.

Mr. Recidivist, speaking of such things, not many people know that Orleans was named after Aurelian, a superb but significantly underrated and largely forgotten emperor. He smashed the break-away Gallic Empire (and the break-away Palmyrene Empire).

kle4 said:

stodge said:

I strongly suspect the mood for a second referendum will grow as the A50 negotiations commence and proceed and especially as the direction of travel becomes clear.

Grow, yes, but how much? It is inevitable more people than now will be disappointed, as it will be impossible to please everyone, but not all will switch to being a second referendum supporter, just as many remainers are now the most vocal for just getting on with things and having the most clean break possible. And that not even getting into what kind of question would be asked, what the government situation would need to be to permit such a thing (May's government is clear we will be a success no matter what, so how could they survive backtracking just because they didn't get their favoured deal, assuming they even admitted what we get is not exactly what they wanted).

At present, there are hypothetical paths away from Brexit, but very little to indicate they are remotely plausible, and even if they were, whether it would be a good idea given we so publicly repudiated the EU and all it stands for.

So long as the sky does not cave in with the deal we do get, that will be sufficient for most people. The prospect of a terrible deal will not sway the majority, as it didn't convince in the first place.

Much as I appreciate the Lib Dems pressing for a second referendum, I don't think it will happen, because of the way our political system operates. We were never going to leave the EU through purely parliamentary means - in 20 years UKIP got, what, 1 MP? But it played a long game around a single issue that (by accident or design) put both Labour and the Conservative under pressure, until one of them snapped and committed us to a referendum, to enable a LD intifada and win GE2015.

Once the referendum was on, party loyalty no longer counted.

Now that we're back to politics as usual, neither Lab or Con will feel inclined to insert a Ref2 into their manifesto (Con have, for the moment, lanced the UKIP boil, and Labour are going through a, possibly doomed, rebuilding process and are out of the loop for another parliamentary cycle). The LDs might, and they *might* get another coalition out of it, and use it as a bargaining chip to form a government (like with the AV vote) and maybe of Brexit starts to seriously drag on, this might proof fruitful.

I would start thinking of themselves as 'UKIP in reverse'. Given the age split of the Referendum Vote, the LibDems should stand on a platform of another referendum to 'rejoin' the EU following Brexit. This would be something positive to get behind, give us a few years whilst the EU weathers (or doesn't) a variety of other Brexit-style votes, and allows a lot more young people to grow up and get politically involved with a positive re-engagement with Europe. It might take ten years, but time is the best lever...

Started the Witcher 3 DLC today, man did I miss playing this game a lot. Easily the best game of the current console generation.

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

flaccid isn't exclusively a sexual metaphor

Well, it's an adjective for a start, not a metaphor.

Pedantry aside, "flaccid" (like "engorged") is usually used on a penile context and not in any other. Deflated bouncy castles or cushions are rarely called "flaccid", but deflated or saggy columns are, usually with a "fnarr-fnarr" as subtext.

Pause.

Well, you did ask...

I prefer flaccid's antonym.

Turgid.

Such a great word. Almost onomatopoeic. So much potential.

Mr. Max, Dragon's Dogma's combat was astoundingly good. So much so it was a great RPG even with a generic world and a plot that goes missing for most of the game. Can't believe Capcom (think it was them) buggered up the sequel so much by making it some online multiplayer tosh.

Agree that combat is the only obvious area for improvement in The Witcher 3.

I have mixed views on creating your own character. Generally, I really like it, but CD Projekt Red did such a good job with the defined character of Geralt that it may be better sticking with that approach (not to mention, most RPGs have a make-your-own style).

Only played the first two Uncharted games. Played the most recent Tomb Raiders, and enjoyed both of those, though.

What I deduce from this is that Liam Fox has reached the "don't shoot the piano player" stage. Will the hardcore Conservative Leavers follow his lead?

Others will be better placed than me to judge. Assessing hardliners and moderates on the Europhobic right is like assessing hardliners and moderates in the Iranian government.

Public Service Announcement (as I think there's at least one other chap in the Morley & Outwood constituency here):
If you hear someone knocking on your door in the early hours, don't answer it (perhaps check through the window).

It may be a gang with club/knives trying to get your car keys.

Edited extra bit: anyway, time for me to be off.